Forecast Discussion - May 6, 2024 - Southern Plains Tornado Outbreak Expected
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- Опубліковано 1 чер 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A regional significant severe weather outbreak is expected today, focused on southern Kansas into central Oklahoma, where SPC has upgraded to a rare High Risk (level 5/5). Multiple discrete supercells are expected to traverse the High Risk area with an initial threat for large to giant hail before the low-level jet ramps up during the late afternoon/early evening. As this occurs, these supercells should begin to produce several long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes. Farther north, numerous severe storms are also expected, but a quick transition to a more messy, linearly organized complex is forecast to take place. Still, all hazards are possible, including a strong tornado or two and significant damaging winds.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction of risk areas, locations included
5:57 Current observations
22:29 Model analysis
35:03 Convection-allowing model (CAM) analysis
39:57 Wrap-up - Наука та технологія
Your ability to draw an arrow on screen and not screw it up completely is admirable
I use a tablet that allows me to draw things by hand, which then get transferred to the screen through an app
@@ConvectiveChronicles Ahh, so you cheat. Got it.
@@ryer9646 he’s just tryna make the viewing experience seamless for us as the viewer. I appreciate what he does for us to help us understand
@@ryleybrowningvlogs2655 (it was a joke. The idea that with all he does, it's the inability to draw perfectly with a mouse that invalidates it)
I'm better with a mouse for some reason than a tablet
This day is honestly one of the most scary forecasts for me in my opinion. Everyone in the area should hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.
Most scariest? Come on
@@maniacrailfan8060high risk right over a couple pretty big cities. Seems pretty scary to me.
@@maniacrailfan8060 ?
Most scary, or scariest. Lol
@@maniacrailfan8060I mean the after dark soundings reveal a pretty scary picture for tornados over metro areas
I'm in Wichita, the south side of the city. Former storm spotter/chaser. The last time I saw this kind of setup was Greensburg in '07 and maybe Hesston '90 and Andover '91. Though I'd have to go back and read up on the synopses for those events.
It's almost noon and we have a bit of drizzle and low clouds though I keep seeing peeks of blue. It was quite cool until about thirty minutes ago. Now I can feel the dew point climbing as we warm into the 60s. Winds pulling in that Gulf moisture.
The lack of any bust conditions is scary.
Yep
What is a bust condition?
what is a bust condition??
@@taylorlloyd2281 things that would cause it to not "perform" as expected. Usually it's things like moisture coming in "just in time" or not enough, not enough shear/helicity, etc but it seems that everything is there in ample amounts
The fact that there is a lack of a bust is concerning and that just means that there is nothing stopping this high risk event from ruining people’s lives but there is still that 1% chance of it not happening.
Edit:I was wrong
The crazy OK tornado of last week that did a uturn with a number of anti cyclonic was in a 5%...Be safe everyone and thank you for the forecast! ..
Appreciate your work brother 😃
Thank you so much for the Super Thanks!
As an Oklahoman, I wouldn't live anywhere else. Unless it's May. Every year I rethink all of my life choices in May.
Same here and I'm in dfw Texas area. Every April and especially may I stress out lol
It's ironic that the weather is ideal here in OK in May when it's not tornadoing.
I feel that, but on a hurricane season level and in Florida. Hope you are safe today during all this. ❤
You and Levi Cowan are the experts I always turn to whether it's severe weather or tropical cyclones. It's like watching the old Weather Channel's severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes, only to go into so much more amazing depth.
100%...both are exceptional at presenting complex information in an easily digestible manner
Should be required viewing for anyone who has to give presentations
I know what Trey shares is not for everyone to understand - shoot, I have to watch and listen on repeat sometimes myself, being a neophyte in meteorological discussions. BUT, what Trey shares IS FOR EVERYONE! Thank you brother, once again, for explaining what is probably going to happen and WHY it is most likely going to happen. We owe you a debt we could never repay. God bless
Thank you so much for the kind words!
2 major metro cities that could get hit hard. Praying for all my neighbors in Kansas & down to Oklahoma. ❤🙏🏼
I had a very strong suspicion yesterday that the SPC would go with an upgraded High Risk this morning. This is a very dangerous situation, especially as the strongest threat is during the late evening and early morning hours into Tuesday. Trey, the NAM12 NSharp sounding for west of Ardmore I sent you yesterday really concerned me when I first saw it.
Potentially historic day ahead.. so glad we have you to lay down everything in front of us before the event begins.. super nervous. Stay safe today today Trey & thank you for the premium analysis as always!
@Nickle15 appreciate your sincerity! I’m not in the risk areas thankfully I’m just nervous for the people who are. Trying to stress to them how important it is to have a plan to get to safety should a warning come. Just an eerie feeling ya know ?
Thank you so much!
Some of the soundings are just off the charts in some parts. Sigtor parameters at 12-15,
and effective storm relative helicity values up towards 8-900. It doesnt look very good.
Thanks for the video Trey! I just moved back to Oklahoma from Virginia this past week and wow what a way to be greeted back here 🤣😅
She's put her party dress on for you! 😂
WB!
Man I don’t want to panic monger but I took a look at the sounding near Wichita, Kansas and compared it to the May 2013 Moore Tornado sounding and by god they look so eerily similar 😞 sure hope nothing terrible happens today, pay attention!
A NAM12 sounding west of Ardmore was scary when I saw it. STP of 15 is ridiculous.
Ugggghhh. I'm getting a very bad feeling that we're gonna get another Andover/McConnell AFB situation today.
I mean what else can you say?
This is the type of event in which Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas get that seperate themselves from the rest of the world when it comes to dangerous thunderstorms.
This is incredibly dangerous, Oklahoma has not had a break this year, and after several days of violent tornadoes in which were never forecasted this appears ready to top them all off.
Its simple really, if you live in any of the risk area (even marginal) you have to expect any of these storms to errupt in a heartbeat. You have to be near a shelter. And you have to have a plan in place to seek underground shelter for you and your loved ones. Might i suggest inviting grandparents over for dinner, or cousins etc to get to a safe shelter in the event of disaster.
It doesnt happen very often but, tonight isnt a matter of "if" more of a "when" and it could happen a lot.
Stay safe ladies and gentlemen -- A Canadian
As a lifelong Okie, reminders of just how different and deadly our weather can be and how to be prepared never go amiss!
Thanks neighbor!
@@JanicePhillips 🇨🇦🤝🇺🇲
Your demeanor and presentation style is perfect for such a serious and scary forecast.
Thank you!
Sometimes I check the SPC just out of habit. Hadn’t been paying attention to the weather much this year. Audibly gasped when I saw this forecast earlier. Sending love, hope it all stays out in the fields.
Yikes. What’s the likelihood of these tornadoes being rain wrapped? The nighttime portion of this situation is particularly scary. I don’t even want to think about a Joplin or Moore in a populated area at night.
My weather Twitter is full of older, veteran chasers cautioning other chasers, particularly newer, more inexperienced ones. I hope the warnings are heeded, both by them and by residents. Fingers crossed- stay safe, Trey.
Thank you…I do think we should have some visibility with these tornadoes and that they won’t be super rain-wrapped. The nighttime portion does look extremely dangerous.
Living in Moore, Oklahoma, I do not like seeing this at all!
As most news stations and the weather channel have dumbed down their weather information to the point of being useless, we are so thankful to have Trey to rely on for detailed well presented severe weather information. Keep up the terrific work, it is certainly appreciated!
Thank you very much!
The Oklahoma department of emergency management has already sent a local area emergency for Murray county in Oklahoma, because of Sulphur already getting hard hit by a tornado last week.
Occasionally the hype doesn't pan out. This is a day when I hope this happens but given the dynamics, timing and quality of parameters, I am genuinely fearful of what could unfold. Excellent analysis and stay safe. Things may evolve very quickly.
Thank you; I completely agree!
@ConvectiveChronicles:
I don't think we'll be able to put the brakes on this one, friends. Looks like "full steam ahead". And nighttime events?? WCS.
Folks in the purple zone PLLLEEEASSSE prepare NOW. If the forecast doesn't pan out, glory to God.
Wild season so far! Only seems like it's going to get crazier! Hoping everyone stays safe today!
I call Tulsa home, thank you for the forcasts, I share them with my family regularly. Definitely keeping an eye on the radar tonight. This could get crazy!
Worried for how today and tonight may go... Considering the analog matches for today are historic it's concerning. My friend is in the moderate. And given what has happened already this year I have a bad feeling. And it also is angering seeing all the people wanting today to be the end of no ef5s (not here of course, it seems your followers are respectful not that way luckily) especially since there's large population centers in the risk today. Anyway I'm gonna watch now. Thank you for squeezing in the update today
The only mention of EF5s should be to warn people that it's within the realm of possibility, and to take any warnings seriously 🙁
I agree but unfortunately that's not the case hypsters are always wishing for ef5s for especially every moderate or high but it seems that this event in particular people are wishing for the end of no ef5s today 🙄🤬 one guy in particular said that and then when someone said no one should be praying for that to happen he said " everyone interested in weather prays for there to be an ef5 and those who don't online are lying and pretending they don't want it to happen... Like what? I for instance am very interested in weather tornadoes in particular, but I never WANT or PRAY for them to happen! If it could always "bust" or just be rotation in the storm and never drop I would take it! I definitely don't want any ef4s or ef5s because I know those destroy and sometimes even end lives@@jacobm2625
Yea the people who complain about lack of violent tornadoes have some sort of weird disaster fetish or something. It's pretty gross and unhinged. A tornado doesn't even need to be "violent" to be catastrophic.
On a different note, I'm hoping everyone in these risk areas will stay safe and careful.
Those people are idiots. The EF scale is based directly on damage. They’re literally rooting for the destruction of peoples’ homes and possible loss of life whether they realize it or not. If we never have another EF3 or above again I’d be just fine with that.
Maybe they wish for an ef5 has many people underestimate the weather and need something bad to happen for them to learn.
This severe season has been quite wild so far. Everyone needs to really stay vigilant and very alert, especially considering the lack of any real obstructions for the event's development.
The most robust forecast of the year. Excited to see how the day plays out. Thanks Trey.
Thank you for the video, Trey! It's been quite some time since Oklahoma has seen a high risk, and there is a damn good reason today warrants that. Looking at visible satellite @ noon CDT, I see some cloud breaks starting to come in. I think everyone was hoping the clouds would hang on a bit longer and maybe keep some of that extreme instability away.
I took some other soundings from around the high risk, including in the sections that the NAM was supposing the largest amount of LLJ and there's just such a wide swath of large to massive looping hodographs and 3000+ MLCAPE. I honestly would not be surprised if the high risk gets expanded just a bit as the NAM is trending towards wider and wider swaths of extreme LLJ. The parameter spaces for today line up with some of your classic case studies of violent plains outbreaks. All we can hope for is that the inevitable tornadoes persist over open fields and we can observe them and gather data from a distance, because the chances of 0 tornadoes today is so incredibly low.
I think the two main failure conditions for today are storm mode degrading faster than expected and cloud cover sticking around just long enough to bring the instability down, but neither of those are anywhere near as high of a chance as our other events this year.
My best wishes go out to all of those in the risk areas, including you, Trey, as I know you're right in that high to moderate risk area. Best of luck out there, stay safe, and even though some angry disaster enjoyers on twitter would disagree with this: I really hope today is a bust.
Thank you…I echo all of your sentiments!
My favorite weather channel. Crazy only 18.5k subs. Absolutely see this channel blowing up in the future. Appreciate your level-headedness and in depth analysis! Safe chasing today!
Thank you so much for the kind words!
I'm glad someone knowledgeable is out here actually forecasting.
Hoping for the best for the people potentially caught up in this severe weather.
Thanks for the coverage Trey! Hope everyone in the risk areas are ready for today.
Prayer for today may 6th 2024
God I need your peace today, what I am facing I cannot go through alone, I need you to change the way I think by reminding me that you are with me. You have never failed me and you are not going to start now, so right now please fill me with your peace, no matter what is going on around me I WILL NOT BE TROUBLED OR AFRAID FOR YOU ARE WITH ME AND MY FAMILY. in Jesus name we pray amen.
Womp womp
Thank you Trey. Prayers for everyone in the path of this weather.
Heyo from Yukon, OK! We are ready
Tulsa area here 🙌 let's go!
Bridge Creek area here 🫠
I hope i'm very wrong, but this set up looks bad, especially going into late evening and overnight hours. Don't be scared, be prepared peeps in these areas❤
Thanks as always Trey. Stay safe today.
Thanks for the update man. Im in the high risk area in western Oklahoma. Nerves are definitely jumpy. Stay safe all
Wow... Nws norman just posted that they met up with emergency managers etc and wanted to post what they told them... Now im even more worried. I dont remember them posting the things ive seen them post the last 24hrs especially in Oklahoma.
Yeah, today is the real deal.
Quite worried about today. We are all anticipating a crazy day with the Dom Mod Squad! Thanks for all you do, Trey! ❤️
Reed's screaming is proportional to the tor risk level lmao
Trey, I'm always impressed with the work you do. Thanks!
I really appreciate that, Brian; thank you so much for the super thanks!
Lots of prayers for Oklahoma. Many people are still reeling from last week. Please make a plan if you don’t have one. Thank you for the detailed explanation.
Thanks!
Thanks so much for the Super Thanks!
Heavenly Father, You who command the winds and waves, we ask You to calm the storms that threaten our safety. Whether they manifest as tornadoes, hurricanes, or violent thunderstorms, let Your peace override the chaos. Instill calm in our spirits and stillness in the atmosphere.
Protect all those in the path of these storms, from families in their homes to travelers on the road. Strengthen our community’s preparedness and response efforts, and let no life be lost to the fury of nature. May we always find our refuge in You, trusting that You are with us in the storm and beyond. Amen. ✝️🙏
Where 2 or more are gathered in His name He will hear our prayers Amen
I'm not religious, but came to say this is a heartfelt, beautiful and comforting prayer and I'm going to put in my "Amen" if that's ok. These folks need all the prayers and good energy that we can muster. ❤
@@thejessica-est you’re always welcome to join in
Thank you for this video! This time I’m kinda getting a little worried about it, but we’ll be prepared as always!
May be another May 3rd 1999 and or May 20th and May 31st of 2013! Moore and El Reno Prayers go out to the people in Oklahoma and Kansas in particular🌪🌪🌪🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻✝️✝️✝️
I think today is the day we see the next EF-5. This setup with the sun giving extra high level power with the flaring, this is a very dangerous day indeed. Be safe to everyone in the risk area. Thoughts and prayers!
Yes the SUN is sending extra energy , in Wichita and not looking good
Lets hope not
Thanks for reminding us.
I heard that Reed Timmer increased his life insurance this morning
I don’t blame him
He had a close one 2 days ago with that one large rain wrapped tornado down in texas that was wobblying abit
someone should warn the car rental agencies
@@cloudymccloud they need to double up on insurance with him just walking into a place lol
Reed snorts lines of supercells before every chase lmao
using this to help with positioning for chase day
I question the SPC's scale semantics.
'Enhanced' sounds way *more* dangerous/risky, to my ear anyway, than 'Moderate'.
I think they should have switched those.
Though it's probably too late for that now!!! 🙂
Yeah James spann has said the same for years now
Yeah, I agree…there’s been a lot of talk about the category names for years now.
Thanks as always Trey!
Remember that high risk is National Weather Service jargon for very high risk. Moderate risk is National Weather Service jargon for high risk. Enhanced risk is National Weather Service jargon for moderate risk. Whatever risk the name of the risk sounds like is one notch lower than what the risk actually is.
Well....here we go. Basically all the hallmarks of the 1999/2013 Moore tornado set ups are basically here in this one and man this looks so insane. I swear this is about a once in a 15 year event for the Oklahoma region and that's a pretty good sized high risk too. I so badly fear of the chaser congestion we will see on this day. There are so many people that are gonna be out there to chase the high risk and just the thrill of doing it likely too that people may get so overconfident and tunnel visioned chasing that roads and such will be so badly filled with people getting into dangerous situations. I don't have a good feeling about today as again there may be so many people out there, and people parking weird and all trying to go out on the same roads, that we will see a lot of issues.
This is why I am so glad I chase in mid-June when most usually have to leave the plains or at the very least, not many people will be out there. Trey, I did say on thing I am concerned about not talked about is the fact that people are out there so much now and coming across SIG tornado damage and tornadoes the last 5 years that there's gonna be some PTSD issues for chasers. Like at some point the tornadoes and damage we are seeing this year is rivaling the late-mid 2000s era of tornadoes and I worry that the 18-25 year old group that never saw that level of stuff is gonna catch up with people and I am seeing that a few people that chased the Minden tornado are sitting out because of just the shear PTSD of what they saw. I think that is something I fear for today in a sense that people who normally don't see destruction on the level we are seeing the last 5 years and especially this year with how it's been non-stop for 90 days that people haven't had a day to decompress. I never would chase on the front lines so I would likely not be up coming across immediate tornado damage and potential causalities like so many do chasing so close but at some point that is going to haunt people and it seems like it has on the under 25 crowd vs the most higher end experience chasers pre-2014 that been doing it since then as they have had the long 8 years prior of insane season to build up that hard rock experience coming across stuff.
I still say the most dangerous thing we as a field have done was this "never stop chasing" aspect. I think while a bold concept, there's serious repercussions to those that do that but I don't think many are talking about it or expressing the burnout that comes with seeing event after event and doing full bore on it. Like it's great to see everything but that, ESPECIALLY this Spring is starting to take it's toll on some chasers and that is not a good sign if people are burning out but are still going hard for an event and stretch like this. That's a lot of $$$, time sitting in a car, and just driving to keep up with to see tornado after tornado.
With all thr chaser congestion going on.. it's only a matter of time before something tragic happens .. that day is comming unfortunately
With all thr chaser congestion going on.. it's only a matter of time before something tragic happens .. that day is comming unfortunately
Yeah this isn’t looking good at all
@@michaelistheman1533 Well, also more and more people are on the road that follow the chasers and if they need to move....ALL need to move at once and that's not possible usually.
Chaser wars: weather extreme games 🍿
Even though the risk area isn’t the biggest, I think we might see ~25-40 tornados today, several violent. And maybe we might even break the 10years of EF5 drought
Wednesday looks potent as well, especially for widespread damaging tornadoes
It sure feels like it outside!
@JanicePhillips:
. . . hi, Ma'am, is the air clammy and sticky like a wet blanket over you?? My Mum lived thru the 5th worst tornado in US history. She used to say how unusually humid (esp for southeast US, where spring & summer humidty is naturally elevated) it was that day.
Take care, everyone.
Thank you for your thoughts on this Trey 🙂🙏 and also I could see there being 1 or 2 violent Tornados this evening with the way those hodographs look
Best of luck safely chasing today! Looking forward to any break downs and case studies for events today after they unfold
Today I just have that raw gut feeling that this is going to potentially be terrible… May the lord Jesus be with these people and protect them from these tornadoes.
OMG I am SO glad you're doing a set-up video beforehand! I hope you keep doing these!
That’s the name of the game on this channel!
Trey posted and now it’s time to prepare!
Very much awaited.
Thank you Trey!
also prediction on my part:
the funny is going to happen OKC again lmao
Live, laugh, love convective chronicles
I'm chasing today, thank you for the quality info!
Thank you brother, i can hear the concern in your voice. May God be with all in their path. Thank you for evrything you do to teach and guide!
Thank you! Definitely an exciting day as a storm chaser but one that’s full of concern as a resident of this area. Hoping for minimal loss of life and property today
Thank you for the forecast
OKC here. Thank you. Subscribed!
Thank you!
Good job as always Trey, stay safe buddy!
Thank you!
Please be careful out there, Trey.
Thank you for this video. You don’t overhype weather setups like other people on UA-cam so I know when you use this kind of language it means business.
Just FYI, they grew the moderate zone into eastern KS more.
I’m in Edmond without a storm shelter. Made a spot for me and the kids and the dog under our stairs. So grateful to you for sharing such an in depth forecast.
Awesome; glad you were able to get that spot ready!
Thanks Trey, scary day ahead. I hope that there is some serious research today. Shout out to Ft. Sill, Hooah!
I feel like its redundent, but thanks Trey! Great hearing from you once again, we appreciate your knowledge and the analyses. God help the people that are going to be impacted.
Thank you! Today definitely looks like a major day.
Wonder if poor Moore is gonna get it again today =(
Hopefully not!
This high risk will finally shut the weather weenies up for once. Stay on high alert Oklahomans and for those in the Wichita area!!
Was waiting for this vid
Same. I've literally been sitting here with my phone waiting for the notification.
This is gonna be an all nighter today for me, I live in Germany so it’s gonna be 10 pm- 8 am
Luckily I’m sick so I don’t have to work tomorrow
Btw, in southern Germany we had some beautiful supercells today producing large hail up to 1,5-2 inches
Great video as usual. Would like to see a post mortem on this. Looks like the storms went linear quickly in this set up.
Thank you; this event should make a good case study video
Important day Great work Trey
Chilling here in okc! Will try to post pics/videos later!
I informed everyone I know so they can monitor for updates
Its been awhile since ive heard you this concerned and urgent. Even with the dual high risk last year. Be safe out there Trey.
Thank you…with last year’s high risk, I saw some failure modes, and I’m just not seeing those today.
Do you have any videos that go over the different forecast models and such? I noticed you mentioned there's one that you didn't care for and that got me wondering what your opinions were on all of them and also just in general how they work and any details on the differences between them.
I have a video like that on my list
Am I wrong in thinking that the models you discussed in this video all mostly disagreed with the SPC's prediction of the late evening/early overnight hours having the most potential for intense tornadoes in OK?
Nearly every model that you went over showed a transition to linear mode by about 10 or 11 pm CST, which is when the SPC was saying the threat would really ramp up.
Will be interested to hear why the initial late afternoon supercells in western OK struggled to organize and eventually turned linear, and did so rather quickly.
Most of the CAMs had at least one or two discrete supercells persisting through at least mid evening. The tornado threat was expected to ramp up after about 6-7pm, coincident with a ramp-up in low-level jet, so the models generally depicted a scenario similar to what the SPC outlined
I watched this scenario unfold all day, and I was definitely suprised that it shifted into a more linear mode. Although the worst case scenario was avoided, there were definitely some notable impacts such as the tornado in Barnsdall-which strangely is currently the one of note from the day. I'm looking forward to learning more about why things happened the way they did.
Appreciated, m'dude... Hopefully this day ends up being less than memorable
Always great videos - but I'm especially impressed that you correctly pronounced 'Arkansas City'. 🙂
Thank you! As a Plains transplant, I’m slowly learning how to say town names out here!
Great Vid!
Thank you!
I was checking out tge soundings for OK and they were scary!!
I was waiting for this since I woke up this morning
I hope I didn't do anything... yesterday I was re-watching your analysis of el reno 2011 and how the complicated nature of occluding mesocyclones, horizontal curls, rfd gusts front works, and that threat was positioned almost identical to this one, with i believe a high or moderate risk...sorry Trey
Also would like to say that this seems like the most perfect high risk ever, like what. This also reminds of march 13 1990, and even 1985 niles outbreak. 1 in 75000 type variety, but the reality is its bound to happen, and when there is absence of such events off the charts, then the outcomes will bear down, I hope at least like april 26th people are ready and there are no fatalities.
Be safe, and give us some good photos maybe! @ConvectiveChronicles
In Muskogee, OK ready for the fireworks! (NE OK)
Muskogee too! Let's go! 🙌
I saw the soundings and hoped I was missing something because I'm still baby weather bug. From what you're saying, it's as awful as it looks without any chances for a Hail Mary in timing, shear, nothing to stop it. Wrapping my Plains peeps in peace and love as they deal with this ❤
This was the fourth or fifth time this year where I look at the SPC forecast, then look at the HRRR and NAM NEST models and they don't align at all with the SPC. I've posted about this on a few of your videos. I didn't do so yesterday because it's so rare they issue a high risk. I thought maybe I was missing something this time. Yet, the same thing happened again.
I will add that the NAM NEST model clearly showed a quick linear transition early whereas the HRRR showed a couple supercells in OK forming before transitioning to linear mode near sunset. So this time was a little different but I put a lot of trust into both models. When they disagree, I question things. Never saw a high risk scenario yesterday.
Forecasting is much more intricate than looking at a couple of CAMs. The parameter space and expected progression of the event warranted a high risk, and honestly, it played out decently well relative to expectations…multiple discrete supercells in a primed environment. Something was just slightly off, but it’s unclear what it was. But a high risk was certainly warranted given how it looked like things were going to play out.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Yes, forecasting is more than looking at CAMs. But from my experience, everything has to line up - especially when forecasting a high risk. Everything you pointed out in this video had merit. However, when the models don't all align, something is off. SPC was forecasting "multiple long track EF 3+ tornadoes."
I've had so many busted chases like this in the past and learned my lesson the hard way. Everything must align to consider a chase high risk / high probability.
@@Scott7137 The models did align though...all CAMs had at least some form of discrete supercells persisting into a volatile environment in the evening. And the CAMs are just part of it; the data that was coming in through the day, and the fact that we did have multiple discrete supercells develop and persist was all part of why the High Risk was warranted. We can't be 100% results oriented with these risks; the setup warranted a High Risk, but something snuck in to the environment to make things underperform.
@@ConvectiveChronicles I had a reply to this earlier. Either it somehow didn't post or was deleted. In short, you can still look back right now at the College of DuPage models and see what I'm talking about. Going from memory from what I posted earlier... The 12Z and 18Z NAM NEST models from yesterday showed predominantly linear modes shortly after initial convection. Then the 12Z HRRR model had more supercell structures forming around 21Z and quickly going linear around 23Z. The 20Z model showed even less time between initial convection and linear mode. So the most reliable models pointed to a very short window of discrete storms (2-3 hours) before going linear. Because of that, I don't think a high risk / 30% tornado hatched was warranted. Yes, skew-Ts looked good, but the CAMs these days are so good that they must be respected. I think the last high risk day was last year with the Iowa outbreak (I think March 31) and everything aligned for that forecast. I agreed 100% with that high risk probability. Yesterday, I did not agree.
Better stay safe on your chase today!!!
Man. This is wild. The lack of any major fail modes is truly worrying and the incredibly potent parameter space. Almost doesn’t feel real that there’s really a 5/5 today. Especially in the plains.
On day 3 even the weather looks creepy for me as we are in the MRGL risk this is even reaching my area 🌪️
This looks like a EF-4 EF-5 maker.
Let’s goo first like!!! Haha but in all seriousness thank you for your great work and prayers for everyone impacted by the weather today.
Its crazy people would want to see an ef5 today, maybe they don't understand what that entails. And really there is no way of knowing just how many tornadoes each year have 200 mph+ winds, may have already seen multiple "ef5's" this year.
You are 100% on target with your statement..kudos!👍👍As you are aware, to get an EF-5 level damage rating almost always requires the most violent kinds of tornadoes to hit a densely populated area, so that structures capable of withstanding 200mph+ winds are likely to be located along the centre of the damage path.🤔In other words, more than likely an EF-5 damage rating will come at the expense of life-altering injuries & fatalities! 😕