My 2024 Tornado Season Forecast
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- Опубліковано 8 тра 2024
- Welcome to my second annual tornado season forecast! In this video, we'll attempt to make a forecast for tornado frequency and distribution across the United States for the upcoming 2024 tornado season (March-June). We'll use global climate teleconnections (such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation), Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature anomalies, and drought in the elevated mixed layer source region to help us predict whether we'll see an above-average, near-normal, or below-average tornado count this spring, as well as which areas might be favored for enhanced tornado activity.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction
3:03 El Niño Southern Oscillation
13:19 Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperature anomalies
15:21 Drought in the EML source region
17:49 Introduction to analogs
20:49 Analog: 2016
22:10 Analog: 1998
23:33 Analog: 1966
24:52 Analog: 2010
26:15 Analog: 1973
27:11 Analog: 1995
28:12 Composite 500 mb height anomalies of analog years
30:26 My final forecast
32:23 Wrap-up
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Resources:
My 2023 Tornado Season Forecast: • My 2023 Tornado Season...
"The Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Winter
and Early Spring U.S. Tornado Outbreaks" - Cook et al. (2017): journals.ametsoc.org/view/jou...
"US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases
and North Atlantic SST variability" - Lee et al. (2016): iopscience.iop.org/article/10...
Supplementary figures for Lee et al. (2016) accessible through the hyperlink in his article above
"Is There an Optimal ENSO Pattern That Enhances Large-Scale Atmospheric Processes Conducive to Tornado Outbreaks in the United States?" - Lee et al. (2013): journals.ametsoc.org/view/jou...
"Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity" - Molina et al. (2016): agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.c...
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One of the few UA-camrs that actually understands weather and isn’t just making videos for nothing
*making videos for money
we also would have accepted,
*making videos FROM nothing
My favorite is when those UA-camrs just present the data from NOAA and say "looks like experts agree with me."
@@greggsplaylist ..many a sensationalizing charlatan out there.
This is the only weather channel I watch. Our boy Trey is the real deal.
@jrodowens will admit I do watch Ryan Hall for more general forecast updates and his livestreams with multiple chasers. Once the severe weather comes, though, I watch Trey to get the most accurate forecast.
All the severe weather hype videos, it's extremely dangerous ... they hype it up and nothing happens .. well people get complacent ... and when something does happen ...bad things will happen as a result
Interesting to see the 1973 and 2010 matches. The years before the two big years. It will be interesting to see if 2025 has any match to 1974 and 2011.
Interesting correlation!
This is what I was noticing. 1998 too before 1999. If La Niña trend matches the forecast to a strong La Niña we could be in for a huge 2025.
nervous sweating.
@@brettrobison7036 I'll be 18 in 2025. What a dramatic shift.
@@vibrantgleamme too! Twins
"It's headed RIGHT for us!"
~ Dusty
Awesome write-up Trey. Thanks as always for the info!!
IT’S THE SUCK ZONE……..
Thank you so much!
@@ConvectiveChronicles 🙂😆
Don't fold the maps, roll the maps.
@@lukesowell8274 There's a giant crease through Wichita.
Let’s go!! There’s been countless channels releasing these but yours is the only one I’ve particularly cared about. Especially since this year I have an actual experienced chase partner and I’m ready to get out there! Here’s to an awesome 2024 season. Happy chasing everyone!
Thanks man; here’s to an awesome chase season!
@@ConvectiveChronicleshopefully I'll get to chase some this year!
I've always wanted to chase but my job schedule is pretty much to where I can't unless it's in one of the gulf states
post footage if you can do it safely
@@TheGhostFart I will.
I live in minnesota and was interested to see those strong events in similar years. Definitely something to look out for come the summertime
Was just looking at a couple of other Tornado forecast videos and was wondering when yours was coming. Great timing.
Never clicked on a video faster, love your work Trey.
Thank you!
Let's freakin go! Thank you for the forecast and great job! Learned a lot from you're videos and am still learning!
Thank you!!
Thank you Trey!!
Being in Kansas and how volatile the weather has already been this year, I'm dreading it.
I hear you…the storm chaser side of me is excited, the Oklahoma resident side of me is a bit apprehensive.
Honestly same. Especially when this year is being compared to 2016 and knowing how close the Chapman EF4 was to where I live...I know rationally that the chances of being directly impacted by a significant tornado like that are very low, but it doesn't do my storm anxiety any favors. That's why I'm grateful for channels like this that allow me to prepare mentally as well as physically for the season.
Totally understandable! One of the most important things you can do is invest in and have on you a NOAA Wx radio 📻. Plus any trusted apps and this channel. Best wishes!
this seems like a very reasonable tornado forecast. great job putting so much effort and considering so much info!
I really appreciate that; thank you!
Amazing and informative as usual, keep it up Trey!
Thanks so much!
I was waiting patiently for your tornado season forecast to come out, made my day when i saw it up! Didn't disappoint. I live outside of Chapman, KS and wouldn't mind seeing another 5/25/16 long as it stays away from town, unlike 6/11/08 (most folks around here want nothing to do with either)
Been looking for some good predictions for tornados this year, found this and it was perfect
Getting me hyped Trey. 🤙🏼
I am in OKC and watch almost everything you put out. Keep up the great work and I totally love your in depth analysis of current and historic products. As I am older now I still chase but dont get as close as you younger guys do as I try to capture the whole storm photographically! Really love your work!
Thank you so much! Absolutely nothing wrong with taking in an amazing supercell from farther back; there’s something special about taking in a great storm in its entirety…the structure, the lightning, etc. Best of luck this chase season!
That was phenomenal. By far the best season prediction out there. Keep up the good work Trey!
Thank you so much!
Great work as always Trey
Thank you!
Thank you for sharing your passion with us. Much love from the great plains!
Thank you so much!
learned a lot form you! keep up the good work.
Thank you!
I think every storm chaser just got stoked when you said 2016 was the best analog. Great video!
Also have you ever thought of doing an analysis of an entire tornado season? Like a video on why 2011 was so insane, or why 2018 was so below average?
Thank you! Yes, I’ve had an idea to do a video like that for awhile now, and I’ve had some other folks comment about that here. So I’ll move it up the list!
This is a great idea
Excellent idea!
2018 WAS SO MID BRO. BUT THEN 2019..-
Thank you very much for sharing a well-explained and well-reasoned forecast, using sound methodology!
Thank you!!
Your forecast last year was pretty good. Very much in favor for a hyperactive May Fingers crossed.
Thank you so much for this detailed seasonal forecast, it's genuinely so helpful to have the reasoning behind it broken down like this. I am worried that a lot of places hit hard last year, especially the Midwest during the mar 31 - apr 1 outbreak, which hit my town and disrupted life for weeks. It's so important to keep in mind that even if a long term forecast doesn't put you at high risk, it only takes one storm, so be prepared!
Thank you! You’re absolutely right; all it takes is one storm…this is just an educated guess at tornado activity, so everyone should be prepared, regardless of where they are. I hope your town is recovering well after last year’s tornado; that was a nasty outbreak.
great video , love how enso effects tornado season and our weather in general , fascinating
Thank you!
Excited for this season!!!!! Woooo!!!
Thank You Trey- Äm wedged between 2 “ Tornado Alleys “ so any heads up is appreciated! ☮️
Love this outlook man!! Can't wait for Kansas and Tornado Alley to wake up once again
Thank you! I agree; Kansas is my favorite place to chase!
Great video one of the best Tornado forcasts i have seen
Thanks so much!
Excellent analysis! I'm hoping to chase New Mexico and West Texas this spring and summer. Developing a probe as well. I'm looking forward to your next video. Enjoyed, and thanks for sharing.
Thank you! Best of luck chasing this year!
Impressive work, sir! Learned a ton from this! Subscribed!
Thank you so much!
Another banger, Trey! I'm hoping for an April that exceeds expectations because that will be the first solid chunk of time I've been able to set aside from life to fully be on the road for chasing! After that, back to weekend warrior'ing for the rest of the season! Anyways cheers and good luck and stay safe to all forecasters, spotters and chasers! The season is upon us!
Thank you! That's awesome; best of luck in April!
I've never clicked so fast. You da man, Trey!
Also this is why your outlook is a tier above many of the other channels I’ve watched. It follows sound, scientific logic. Nobody else even took into consideration the EML source region. Not trying to bash his content but makes a certain huge weather UA-camr’s video look questionable. You came up with a completely different conclusion than he did. There’s a bunch of other things I appreciated but I don’t want to make this comment even more long lol. Awesome work as always man.
Thank you so much man…creating these forecasts is definitely a subjective task, but there are certain meteorological things that simply must be taken into account. Let’s just say I’ve seen some interesting analog years thrown out there (e.g. 2011) that don’t make a whole lot of sense.
I love the mention of the ‘98 MN tornado outbreak! The story of the college in Saint Peter, Gustavus Adolphus College, having a direct F3 Hit is my favorite. The college was luckily on spring break, so no faculty or students were injured during the outbreak. They recovered in time for the class of ‘98 to graduate in May!
Wow!
I'm in the northern suburbs slightly west of the Mississippi River. Technically I'm in a historical "tornado alley" for MN. I have a looming premonition for this year. It's not a good feeling. 😕
@@jessicataylor2849 I feel you. Best thing is to stay weather aware and practice your severe weather plans and back-up plans! :) stay safe out there!
Thanks bro as usual awesome video.
Thank you!
I’ve watched 5 different people on their tornado season predictions and they all for the most part seem to be in mutual agreement to each others predictions, you included! I’m excited for this years season!
Came back to say, Trey - you were right about March! So glad I cleaned out my tornado shelter last weekend to prepare for April/May. I’ve been having this gut feeling Oklahoma might see some crazy activity this year and we’re already off to a busy start. These storm set ups have been interesting this early in the season.
Great call! I agree; I've got a feeling we're in for a busy season down here in OK, especially after this active start in March.
Nicely done forecasts as always!
Thank you!
As a person who is starting their first professional storm chasing season this year AND lives in the target area, I see this as an absolute win
Giddy up, May!!! 🤠
as a chaser in Kansas this makes me excited to hear
*me just saving this to look at at the end of the year n see how close the mark is hit!* I like that you posted this on the 1 year anniversary of our little F2 we had here in Norman, first time a tornado ever tried to hurt me! It was amazing.
Haha yeah, that Norman tornado was about a mile from me...I was out chasing but was a little nervous watching it on radar!
Thanks brother. As always great videos. I'm heading out tomorrow around 4PM here around Indy... wish me luck. Numbers look good on the latest run of models so far. Just wish there was a bit more dew but the winds are looking good.
Thank you! Best of luck tomorrow; could be a solid chase day!
Oh it's time to bust out the popcorn 🍿 👀
Indeed - it's gonna be interesting 👀 🍿
as a minnesotan that loves tornadoes, this gets me super pumped.
23:06 yeah I was very close to the Nashville f5. That along with nearly being in the kennedale-arlington Texas 2012 tornado is why I have such storm anxiety
I hear you; both of those were nasty ones
Always awesome seeing when you put this out and I was sensing the same thing Trey. I think this is gonna be a damn good tornado season again ESPECIALLY in May and June. This is almost really similar though to 2023 where you get these flipping ENSO patterns overall in the main tornado season and that spawned just a bonkers May and June. The Southern plains as you said I think we will see a more classic return to what is a hot spot for tornadoes in the prime months and even into June. I mean we saw how active June was and with a kind of similar analog and trend that would be the case.
I am intrigued though on the Northern plains cause that region has been stupidly dead for the most part with activity the last 3-4 years. I mean when we chase in Mid-June we almost NEVER go that far North since we usually don't prefer to drive 600+ miles for a one day chase if we are down in OK/KS and 2 days later it will be right back in our region of choice again. Hehe we aren't that insane of a chasing group as we are only out there for 7-10 days or in this case 5 days this year so MAYBE we will see. Still only one landspout for us since 2018 and that was a 5 min NE one in 2021 but hey it's something as we were the only chasers to see it and document it.
Oh and Trey I assume you are doing your tornado tour group again with the company again? Maybe we will see you guys out there in June by chance but that's a big if....like running across banana randomly in the middle of a open corn field. XD It's insanely unlikely but maybe...just maybe. But we will see....usually me and my 2 friends, we prefer to find a park or something if we got time to wait on stuff to cook.
Yes, I’ll be out April-June with the tour company. See you out there!
@ConvectiveChronicles will do. We will be as I said in Mid-June. Hehe, hopefully, the 5-7 days we are out there this year we don't get the one week of a death ridge or stuff shutting down.
Thanks for your videos, they are a treasure!
Thank you so much!
Thanks, always enjoy these long-term forecast videos. Here in Chicago, it looks like we will be having an early start this year.
Thank you! Yes, looks like things are getting going early up there thanks to tomorrow's event.
@ConvectiveChronicles seems like there might be something cooking up next week as well for us.
@@greggsplaylist Yeah, it's too early to know for sure, but the next trough looks pretty potent.
Even tho i live in finland i find this (and your other videos) very interesting and easy to understand! They have also made me follow Finland's weather more closely. Great video! Will be interesting how this year will progress.
Thank you so much!
This is good stuff Trey
Thank you!
Thank you Trey for another robust analysis 🫡 Keep it up!
Haha thank you!
My chasecation is in June so I’m hopeful! Thanks!
Heck yeah! See you in a few months!
I’m commenting on the day after the outbreak in Ohio yesterday as well as eastern Oklahoma into Kansas and Arkansas and your march map nailed it!
2 weeks ago Ohio got hit too
I was just about to comment this! He was spot on so far. If he’s right about April I’m glad I cleaned out my tornado shelter last weekend 😂
I know all the OU met students (myself included) are definitely looking forward to this storm season. I've grown up here in Oklahoma all my life and last year felt like Oklahoma was starting to wake up again but just wasn't quite there yet. Obviously time will tell but I definitely can see some hectic days ahead. Loved the video, definitely has me eager for spring! Good luck to you in the spring!
Thank you! Oklahoma definitely saw a bit of a "return to form" last year, but this year could take that a step further. As a storm chaser, I'm excited; as an Oklahoma resident, I'm slightly apprehensive.
@tiveChronicles This is very true, even when looking back at last year, the main big days like February 26th, April 19th or May 11th, people's lives were changed. I mean my apartment complex in Norman was very close to being hit while I was up in my hometown of Piedmont on February 26th. So I definitely agree with your sentiment, excited in regards of chasing but a little nervous when it comes to the property and livelihood side of things.
Lets gooo. Finally someone i can trust more, so many people lying and click baiting for views and money
Very educational and interesting. Thank you for the video.
Thank you!
Great analysis!!!
Thank you!
Amazing explanation!
This will surely be an interesting storm season.
For good and worse.
Thank you!
You were right! Northern Indiana, Porter and lake county could be active! Thanks again
Awesome
Really love the scientific backing of everything! Love the use of case studies as well!
Thank you!
@@ConvectiveChronicles You’re welcome!
This will be my first chase season since moving to Norman, OK. Im excited!
How amazing!!! You're living my dream! Go get 'em buddy! ✊
Another well done overview.
Thank you!
Happy to have an actual forecast with reasonable evidence and actual using of research instead of using 2 CFS runs
Very interesting as usual, Trey! It's encouraging that most of your analogs turned out to be solid to active chase seasons, although somehow that pesky 1988 (universally reviled as one of the slowest seasons on record among people who were chasing at the time) always manages to find a way to pop up. I'd be curious to learn, if it manages to be grouped as an analog with so many seasons with favorable indicators that did indeed turn out to be active, what it was about that year that screwed things up so badly.
Thank you! Yeah, there had to be some underlying factors at play in 1988 to make that year such a dud.
I'm an Oklahoma/OKC native. Survived two direct hits as a kid, witnessed many more, and was here for the 2013 El Reno monster. Just remember that these things are deadly. Know what you're doing if you're going to go chasing after them!
Been chasing for well over a decade myself; safety is always our #1 priority.
Also Looking like a good fit for the prediction for March this year
Yessss be wait for a while
Fantastic video Tre!👍As always, your communication & teaching skills shine!👍It was interesting to see that the northern mode of yesterday's SPC outlook verified reasonably well, which is consistent with early season activity in analogue years.🤔As a weather geek - yes, this forecast gives reason to be excited. However, we must never forget that lives, livelihoods & possessions are at stake, so ideally, all strong/violent tornadoes will avoid densely populated areas (..a big request, given the amounts of urban sprawl since many of those analogue years..).🙏cheers!
Thank you so much! I agree; as a storm chaser, I’m excited, but hopefully those extra tornadoes stay away from population centers and keep the impacts at minimum.
me eyeballing all those lil tornadoes in northeast colorado on the analogs 👀 im wanting to do some small chases out there this year and i hope it's even half as good as last year. amazing video trey!!
Thank you! Last year was such a great year for the central High Plains; I’m sure you’ll get a few good events up there this year!
5/24/16 was an epic day as a storm chaser in SW KS
Agreed! Career day!
Great video!
Thank you!
Sitting here at quarter to six in the morning, totally captivated by this video. Watching the entire thing. I guess I'm now a complete nerd, or, my childhood interest in tornadoes has been enhanced with the exponentially advanced technology and understanding, unavailable when I was a kid.
And there's no shame in my game! This stuff is fascinating. Patterns themselves fascinate me. So interesting how one can potentially correlate variables such as the Niño/Niña situation, drought, and Gulf water temps, to get an educated estimate of how active a season will be.
It's going to be unseasonably warm where I live this coming week, maybe we'll see some thunder, probably not much more than that. But, it's only March and the engines are not even revving up yet. Happy spring, y'all! Stay safe.
interesting that a lot of those analogs are the years preceding some of the most notable severe weather years ever.
I agree this will be a above average year, the years since 2011 and 2013 have been pretty alright with season, but the weather this year has been crazy 80 degrees one day and 40 degrees the next lol something is definitely brewing for the future
Great video.
Thank you!
This was excellent
Thank you!
Great video as always! I'm particularly interested in what next season will bring if models are correct in a quick transition to a La Nina, which could easily become strong if they are underestimating the transition.
There are only three other years since 1950 where a strong El Nino quickly transitioned to a strong La Nina - 1973, 1998, & 2010, all three of which you listed. The year following those (74, 99, 11) all had active tornado seasons with both super outbreaks and other major outbreaks (Apr 3 1974, May 3 1999, Apr 15 2011, Apr 27 2011, May 24 2011). Of course, it might be just a coincidence with other factors playing a more important role, but it's interesting nonetheless.
It would be super interesting if you could take an outbreak analysis one step further and do a video on an entire season, for instance 2011, and explain why troughs came in so clean and negatively tilted from mid April to late May. I'm fascinated by the conditions that need to be in place for a sequence of such high-end outbreaks to occur one after another like that.
I agree; I’m definitely interested to see how ENSO progresses into next year. If we do plunge into La Niña, next year could very well be pretty prolific. I have had an idea for a full-season analysis on a big year, like 2011; I’ll move that up the list.
Active June? I'll Be There 😎
Another great video! Honestly genuinely curious to see which state will actually lead in tornado reports this year. Illinois was a hotspot last year (120+) wild stuff. Don’t think it’ll be too crazy but wouldn’t be surprised if there were around 70-80 tornadoes at least in the state. Northern plains haven’t had much of any activity the past few years that I’ve seen.
Thank you! Yeah, will be interesting to see how the distribution of tornado reports goes this year.
Yooooo let’s go!!! Can’t wait to hear your opinion!!
This is a fantastic presentation of your analysis. If you're not already an academic, you honestly should be.
Thank you so much!
NOOOO! is heard in Iowa😂 but seriously very good video so good I had to subscribe 😊
Haha thank you!
I waited for your 2024 season forecast for so long😎Thank you Trey Awesome work as always💪
I also think that next few years or even in nxt decade we could see much increase of severe weather outbeaks because we are in end of Milankovitch cycle, sun activity is rising and 2024 is going to be solar maximum and earth's magnetic field started reversing polarity. I study this subject for long time and I think that it's possible that we will have some big changes in weather patterns. I know some may thinks that it's some conspiracy theory but we have ton of evidence that this cycle is real and have big impact on weather.
Thank you! I’ve always wondered if there’s a linkage between the sunspot cycles and severe weather.
@tiveChronicles I think it has probably the greatest impact because it's the biggest object in solar system and affects all planets in the solar system
...Sun activity and sun spots can change tempertarures fluctuation in all layers of atmosphere, ocean tempertatures and this could change troughs/ jest streams positions and or intensity, plasma bursts have impact on Earth magnetic field wich also have impact on thier (troughs, jet streams)pattern and intensity. I think that sometimes scientists ignore those aspects in thier studies when it comes to climate changing.
Those two tornadoes near LA on the intro map are true "This is the strangest timeline" sort of things.
Bringing up '98, thats what started my interest in weather.
March 20th pre-dawn killer tornado in NE Georgia, touched down real close by, had no idea what had happened till half hour after it had passed.
Would of most likely killed my little brother. It tracked right through his classroom and the hallway they would've been taken shelter in if it happened an hour later in the morning.
Remember also I was at NE Georgia Medical Center in Gainesville being tested for ADD that Friday morning, needless to say I was diagnosed positive...
Had a tornado warning yesterday and had a storm with a huge chance for a tornado near where I live, kind crazy given it’s not even spring yet
Looks like almost every may/june of the reference years has a (small) tornado over south central/eastern KY. Maybe I'll get and try to spot one from a distance this year.🤞
Northern Illinois and parts of Iowa and Wisconsin have had an above average couple of weeks in terms of tornadoes.
For the first time, I have two weeks off in May so that I can chase the plains. It'll be a very interesting first time chasing outside of Dixie if this is true haha. Fantastic analysis!!
I got two weeks off in May too. The 20th until the 2nd.
Thank you! Awesome; best of luck chasing this year!
@@thomervin7450 hahaha I'm willing to bet you have the spicier half lol have fun!
Fantastic video man. I’ll be waiting in central Kansas for some action!
Thank you!!
What a great year to have a potentially great tornado season and have the movie Twisters happen all in the same year lolz.
16:55 that map is cursed. Very glad our drought here in UT (& elsewhere in the west) has (at least for now) eased. I’ve been wondering if that might have an impact on frequency in the classic tornado alley.
convective chronicles My goat Fr
I lived in Tennessee during the April 98 outbreak. Watching a tornado steamroll Nashville live on TV was incredibly surreal and somewhat terrifying for elementary school aged me.
I bet that was quite the experience!
Great work as always, by far the most comprehensive forecast I have seen for this season based on multiple data points. Keep up the good work and thanks
Thank you so much!
That February 8th, Wisconsin tornado was my 1st successful storm chase. I managed to get a quick video of it in the dark. I really only do my local area in southern Wisconsin because i can't travel like i want due to work. So i was baffled that my 1st was in the dark on February evening of all times, lol. I had also gotten lucky enough to just had left a doctor appointment in time to intercept.
Congrats on catching that; that was a pretty unique event!
It's kinda crazy we have back-to-back ENSO transition Springs and just how different the EN->LA this year will be vs last year's predicted heavy emphasis on the southeast. It seems like the transition years are a bit harder to predict than a more consistent ongoing ENSO phase for a season, too, as the speed and severity of the transition can so drastically modulate the effect on the jet streams. Even last year, the rapid warming of the Pacific surprised everyone with how quickly a strong El Nino took root. We could easily see the same thing this year where La Nina comes in earlier than the models are predicting and we see extreme troughing, but we could also just as easily see the warmer Pacific hold on for a month or two longer than projected and suddenly the blow up in May could dwindle a bit.
And, of course, individual storm systems and mesoscale specificity also happily throw massive wrenches into things since single-day outbreaks will just sporadically top 100+ tornadoes in a single day (see: March 31st just last year) and completely trash everyone's forecast.
All that said, you always do a great job heaving the helping of caveats on top of longer-term thoughts as predicting tornadoes is painful at the best of times, and you always try to come in with the best science you know of to reach a conclusion, and based on all the analogs everything really lines up (especially that weird "Minnesota gets a strong tornado" that all of them seemingly had??). Central TX isn't usually a hot spot, but the analogs drew a pretty good line down the I35 corridor from here to Dallas and OKC so I wouldn't be surprised if we get a couple more "hide in the closet" days this yeah. But with the way the heat has already been ramping up (95F in Dallas today, you kidding me?) I would not be surprised if summer ridging tries to edge its way over the southern states a bit earlier than usual.
Anyways, always tons to talk about, always great videos, Trey! Was looking forward to the forecast video as it adds so many layers on top of the individual-event features I already know and love from you, and happy to be here for over a year now! Can't wait for more, and good luck this chasing season!
Thank you so much; I always appreciate these discussions! Just like you said, tornado forecasting is a pain with all the info at our fingertips the day of an event, let alone months in advance. This video is simply an educated guess at what things will look like, but there are so many small-scale things that can disrupt the forecast that it's still a crapshoot. But, the info we do have points to a big year...we'll just have to wait and see!