A good way to think about it is that. If you flip a coin enough times the amount of heads to tails will not be equal. But the ratio of heads/tails will approach 1:1
I don’t like to think of it like that, because in that case we’re better off going red or black on roulette. And not even bothering with counting cards.
@@brianbaker2884 The point wasn't about 50/50 It's the point that due to a statistical phenomenon called "regression to the mean", increasing the sample size will almost always bring you closer to the true odds For example if you flip 8 heads and 12 tails, you might think it's rigged But say after 1000 flips, it will be shockingly close to 500 tails 500 heada
A better way to think about it is that , if you flip the coin enough times, you'll probably wind up with a streak of 10 heads or tails in a row at some point. It doesn't mean the game is rigged, it's just a flukey streak that will happen from time to time with a large enough sample size. Over the long run, the streaks will cancel out and the 50/50 ratio will emerge.
@@brianbaker2884 Counting cards gives you a 1-2% edge over the house. If you play long enough, get enough hands in, you will be earning money from the casino, no matter how bad your variance is. Roulette is unbeatable. No matter what, the house will always have an edge because of the green double/triple zeros. You WILL lose money playing enough roulette. If you don't even understand this concept, you should not be gambling.
This is what I noticed and I could be absolutely wrong but when the True Count was +5 and higher playing triple hands was more advantageous than double hands which was more advantageous than just 1 hand till it drops back below +5. Again I understand it's difficult to switch to triple hands without being noticed or finding such less crowded tables these days if you are on a minimum betting table but could be one of the ways to maximize those big positive running counts!
It's why I gave up trying to do it for a living honestly. The swings ruined my mental health. I've had some sessions that seemed like impossibilities occur. My best session I made nearly $5k in one shoe at 2 x 150. Next day I went back and lost $3k in the same amount of time it too to win $5k. Lol The backoffs were also a huge factor. I dumped hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars into it and came out a financial loser. No regrets learning how to count or joining BJA but the game for a living is not something for someone who is A.) mentally unstable or incapable of controlling their emotions 24/7 at 110% B.) Someone who is poor/working class/barely makes living wages and can't stretch the losing streaks that can occur C.) Hasn't perfected their game to a T and cannot play through multiple shoes without skipping or missing a beat I couldn't always do those things. Some people can. I still play but I don't think I will ever give it the same level of attention I did the past two years. Still, it's been a wild ride. I had a blast getting a rise out of people's reactions at the tables. I think it was worth it but if I could go back to the beginning I would have put more emphasis on learning good bankroll management. Good stuff as always Colin, thanks.
Spot on Chris. I think the key is to not only be focused on proper play, but somehow also be emotionally and financially detached from your bankroll(even though you want to keep it intact and try to grow it!). For me, blackjack is a part-time hobby/side hustle. I don't even live too close to a lot of casinos. But I've found that keeping "blackjack life" separate from "regular life" is important.
@@jyo Yeah, it was fun, but financially it wasn't worth it. I lost so much time. I'm nearly 30 and I'm broke with nothing to show for it. I can't imagine how many other young aspiring pro card counters just got absolutely wrecked because they watched a few of his videos and read a few books like me, took their money and went into the casino thinking they'd be rich in a couple of years time if they just perfected their counting, learning deviations, deck estimation, True Count conversions, etc. Without learning how to vary their bets according to their overall bankroll and cash on hand, their goals, how to mitigate their risk. I can't blame the guy for wanting to make card counting palletable for average people so he can keep his business going, grow it, and foster community and generate income for himself, but I know I'm not the only one who got wrecked because he fell for the marketing. It was marketed to me as something I could do; clearly I can count. But not something that was marketed to me as "Is this financially feasible for you?"
@@christophercarlone9945 100% I have been a professional gambler for almost 40yrs. I've taken multi year breaks for my mental health. I agree with you, it takes years to have the fortitude to mentally battle for money and emotionally survive long dry spells.
@@christophercarlone9945 I'm sorry to hear that, but it sounds like you were addicted to gambling, and not a true card counter. If you truly perfected your counting, deviations, and had a correct betting strategy as well as bankroll management, you would not be broke.
Basic strategy played perfectly results in a slight edge to the house. (It varies based on the rules in play.) You will lose more hands than you will win. If you count cards, you will STILL lose more hands than you will win. The difference is that counting cards gives you some information that can swing your odds on some individual hands in your direction, at which you increase your bets. But, as Colin notes, you can have a hefty losing streak even when the count is in your favor. Each session you play is an independent event. But within each session, it is not because you are allowed to see (and count) the hands that have been played. No longer random; the hands are dependent events, depending on the previous cards played. This all goes away with the shuffle, which is why the count reverts to zero. You're starting over. I play near-perfect basic strategy, somewhere around 99%. I'm not a card counter. I should only lose a few hands more than I win in any session, right? Wrong. Because of variance, I once lost 11 hands in a row. Why? Because it happens. It is the long run, when you can move the odds in your favor by changing your bets based on the count is the only way to shift the long run towards your favor.
I have just been going through a bit of a losing streak. After going through a winning streak. Two sessions in a row, the dealer just kept getting unbelievable hands. So many blackjacks and 21s it was insane. It didn't matter how well I kept count. The "luck" was just all with the dealer. But two weeks ago, the luck was all with me. No matter how I played, I just kept winning hand after hand. So it equalled out this month. But, it was all a valuable learning experience. It taught me that variance is a bi*ch. All you can do is play your best and try to minimize your losses when the cards just aren't going your way. And remember that variance goes both ways. You just have to protect your bankroll as you ride through a downturn, secure in the knowledge that eventually it will swing in your favor - and when it does, don't be afraid to put the bets out there.
'unbelievable' is the most overused, idiotic word at the table. Dealer turning a bust card into a 6 card 21 is not 'unbelievable', it's happened so many times that its like the sun coming up in the morning.
David if you could help me out: I'm playing in Europe and my bankroll is 1,000$ with a table min of 1$, the game rules are normal(H17, no surrender) double deck. What should my bet spread look like? What should I bet according to the true count? I would by the BJA pro-betting software but it's expensive and my bankroll is pretty small. Thanks 🙏.
Thank you very much you literally changed my life, I am from Mexico and there are a lot of beatable casinos 3 to 2 blackjack 6 decks 80% deck pen. i am making 15x times more money than my last Job
As a player of a few years, I've realized that a player needs to recognize when it just isn't your day. Recognize it quickly, and keep your losses to a minimum. Don't chase.
variance is not just something to do with card counting it happens in all aspects of your life where you will have ups and downs good days and bad days. Just know that if you have a bad day its just variance and you're still doing just fine and trending in the right direction in life.
A lack of understanding of variance--and random, independent events, is why some people think they can develop a "system" to beat games like craps, roulette, and slot machines. You can't. Variance can cause you to come out ahead sometimes, just as it can cause your losses to be greater than expected. The same goes for "hot" and "cold" tables/machines/wheels/etc. No such thing, except in hindsight. What has happened before has no bearing on what it going to happen. We humans have evolved to seek out patterns in information. It makes us more predictively accurate, which means we're more likely to succeed at something. It's the basis for hunting, agriculture, and science. But sometimes random events form in ways that look like patterns. They're not, but we construct them anyway. (There is a whole school of thought around us forming these "paradigms.") Casinos take advantage of this. For example, if you approach a roulette table, you'll likely see a sign posted with the most recent numbers produced by the wheel. This is put there to encourage you to see a pattern (that doesn't exist) and cause you to bet accordingly. (The casino really doesn't care what you bet ON, only that you bet.) "Hey, 6 hasn't been hit yet, I'll bet on 6," they want you to think. But because each spin of the wheel--assuming the wheel is true--is a random event, that 6 is no more or less likely to come up than any other number. (And the switch the wheels often enough to that even if one had a proclivity to produce a particular outcome more frequently, it would be gone before anyone had a chance to calculate it.) No hunches, no feelings, no sense of a hot table/machine/wheel/etc., not even a well-calculated chi-square analysis is going to help you discern the future.
Love the videos. I can totally attest to some rough losing streaks. Right now Im around 36 or so hours below break even and I’ve even started questioning my game. Got tested and passed. Next session in, playing DD. Got the tap on the shoulder and lost my local. But that was one heck of a compliment. A multi million dollar company ( they own many properties) telling me I am no long welcome at any of their properties (this was a trespass not a back off) because my play was too good. On to the next ones. And your casino 411, PBS, and forums are all worth the membership.
Hey colin I love your videos, km just getting into card counting and want to make it a career. I have 2 questions for you (maybe video ideas) 1. How do you stay motivated when you were practicing to make your game perfect? Did you ever feel like you have all the steps done and just start to get demotivated? 2. I've been looking at the math and listening to all your videos and the math works out but in my gut I fear that the math will not work for me, I wont be a winner (because you've said for every ap there are like 10 people who think they're ap's but really arent) and I'm going to get addicted to gambling and lose my life to it
I've experienced variance from the start, and I'm not sure my bankroll can survive it unless it changes soon. I can play for hours and barely come out ahead, or get killed and lose hundreds in a couple hours. I play mostly 6 deck shoes, because single or double deck tables have either too many other players or too high minimums. I decided to play heads up with the dealer on 6 deck shoes whenever possible. So far, heads up just means I lose more, faster. The emotional beating during heads up is even worse lol. I believe in the math, and I love card counting, 'm just concerned I'm about to get knocked out of the game before the math turns in my favor.
@@texasrebel7754 conservative bet spread. If you run out of money by playing a small number of hands you will never play enough hands for the math to work out and you might as well be gambling.
@@madhgraham Agree, that's the hump I'm trying to get over. I'm playing a conservative bet spread because the cards seem to go against me so much. I feel fortunate in that I have 3 casinos within an hour or 1 1/2 hour drive that I can hit at leisure, so running up the hours isn't going to be the issue. It's keeping my payroll alive until the cards start turning in my favor.
because even though you may lose a specific play, as long as you are making the correct choice you are generating positive EXPECTED value. in the long run, consistently making the correct choice will play out in your favor, even if the short term doesnt feel like it. This is the same for poker (my world)
Great material as always. I've been watching your videos for some time now and tried your training app recently, it's really good. I think it would be great if you could make a seperate video about European Blackjack - I bet you have many viewers from overseas as well but they might often get confused that your videos are mainly about playing in United States. For example, I don't recall you ever mentioning about no-hole-card rule and how it affects basic strategy (I saw it explained on Wizard of Odds and the table has some differences not included on the universal BS you provide).
That is, assuming the you are confident in your game. Playing perfect strategy, keeping an accurate count. This won't totally protect you during a downturn, but it will minimize your losses.
Perhaps 50 years ago, some students flipped pennies hundreds of thousands of times and recorded the results. They didn't come up with 50/50 at all since one side of a penney is slightly heavier than the other.
This video subject is an example of why a large bankroll is important. 5 thousand bucks just isnt enough to start. Ideally a 1000 unit bankroll or a bankroll with a minimum of 100 top bets should be the least amount you have to play. This dude Colin may have gotten lucky and suceeded when he started, but too small a bankroll is recipe for disaster
My least favorite but probably best example of variance is when you are at the table you got a high true count the cards come out the two people to the left of you get 20 and a BlackJack and the person to the right of you also gets 20 and you get stuck with an eight and a seven with the dealer showing a face card….
Longtime follower! My local casino allows maximum 2 hands per player with card or only 1 hand at max 10x table min without a card. How does playing 1 or 2 hands affect ev and how should bankroll be adjusted? Still 1% per hand of bankroll applies or bring down to 0.5%? Thanks in advance
I've been using the app and that's helping me along a bit. I'm still BRAND NEW to all this. I've ordered your book and I'll get that in my head when it comes in. I haven't pulled the trigger on a membership yet. Maybe I'll treat myself to that by the end of the year, once I ddecide if I can actually do this or not. I'm still kind of thinking that I simply may not be one of the people who can do this successfully.
quick question about counting to make sure , you ALWAYS have to have a fresh shoe so you can start counting from the first card right ? Like you cant just hop in the middle of a game and start counting at that time .
It is ideal to start fresh from the top of a shoe of course. But if you miss a few early rounds, you can still jump in, especially if the penetration of the game is very good. You just have to pretend the unseen cards in the disposal tray aren't there and are instead behind the cut card in the shoe for your remaining deck estimations. It's usually not worth it if there is more than a full deck gone though. Typically, if I come to a table with a few cards in the tray (like a half deck perhaps), I'll watch a couple rounds. And if the running count becomes a bit positive, I'll go ahead and sit down.
Yesterday I was initially up 300$ up on a high stakes table. But when I became the only player on the table, I started losing..I couldn't resist it and keep playing at the same table to get my EV back. Found it hard to count being a single player against the dealer. How to avoid this situation?
Slow the tempo of the game if you're having a bit if difficulty, because often enough the dealer will rush you(not necessarily a bad thing!). But to slow down, make your hand gestures slow and methodical. Same with placing bets. "Pause" to "think" briefly if you have to when playing your hand..
Colin I have been using the Hi-Lo count but made a few adjustments and I’m getting incredible results.A-6 count +1 and 8-K Count D-1 with only 7 being neutral.With these minor adjustments I’ve doubled a 3k bank within a month only playing about an hour at a time at the various casinos on the gulf coast playing at (double deck) 25 table min With good rules and playing with a 1-8 bet spread 25 TC 1 - 50 TC 2 - 100 TC 3 and 200 TC 4 Up.I’M I JUST GETTING EXTREMELY LUCKY??? AND HAVE YOU EVER TRIED THIS BEFORE???
There wouldn't be a push. The dealer would win if he/she turned up a blackjack. The decision to double would only come after the dealer electronically verifies that the hole card is a non-ten.
@@stevenhelgason8190 ah ok, thank you. In the UK the dealer only deals themselves one card instead of 2 which changes the dynamic in this situation somewhat
@@jameshewitt247 Interesting. I get what you're saying. I've only played blackjack where there is a traditional hole card check after an insurance offer from the dealer. Even so, and 11 vs. Ace is a very close descision to hit or double. Often enough, you would just hit under certain rule variations or negative counts.You definitely wouldn't double without the hole card check. There should be strategy charts on the U.K. game. If the rules you describe allow a player to push a dealer blackjack if they were to get to 21, I'd still be inclined to only hit on that hand you describe(though I could be wrong). But I thought that in European rules, a dealer blackjack would be an automatic win for them (or a push if the player were dealt a 2 card blackjack). In any case, the no-hole card doesn't sound like an exploitable game for the player.
I had a time in 20hrs of play that I won back to back hands only a handful of times. Yes over 1,000 bets and almost ALWAYS Lost the next hand after a Win. It Felt like the I was thr unlukiest person ever.
Unfortunately I’m in a losing streak now near the beginning of my “career.” I am just 150 hours into playing at the casino, so I recognize there are probably a few mistakes, but I regularly test out on the app and get over 99% in the training suite. It’s just brutal to be down early on before I’ve had a chance to build the bankroll. Any suggestions?
Since my start, I too have been loosing continuously despite counting cards and playing perfect basic strategy. Counting doesnt help at all really when you just dont get any good cards at the table. I guess just be prepared to loose your bankroll and start over. Cause it can happen
My advice is to build your bankroll by continuing to put money into it. The micro stakes bankroll is more likely to disappear then grow, when you start with a 1000 and it's impossible to find a game with less then a $15 min. To spread a conservative 1-6 or $15-$90, the risk of ruin is just through the roof. because on your max bet you are putting out 10% of your bankroll on a tiny 2-3% advantage. So a great way to build that bankroll is. 1. Wong in at true 1.5 or better, wong out below true 1 only playing good hands dramatically reduces your ror
Went to vegas last week. The only 3:2 tables on the strip are $50 min now on eight decks, the double deck tables were 6:5, no surrender, and no double after splitting. Is counting even still profitable?
Its getting difficult out there. Good games are getting harder to come by. The only playable low limit games in Vegas are mostly off strip - like in the Boyd or Station properties
It sounds like you are saying that your state of mind has nothing to do with it, or that does not effect your playing at all. Negative thinking, positive thinking, clear thinking, distracted thinking does not effect results?
Every flip of a coin is an independent event…but the law of probability takes place 💯 of the time. Flip the coin and you will see that even though independent…it will balance out from heads to tails…same for evens/odds, highs/lows. I’m all about this stuff on my Channel for pick 3/4 lottery! I get the number crazy low using my methods. Had it to 3 numbers the other day…nice win off of just a few bucks and it was in the bag for this one! Had the perfect set up.
Bit off topic but.. If I've got my basic strategy sorted but my counting blows, would it be bad form to follow a counter I've spotted and mirror his bet variations?
Yes, it would be bad form. Not only would you learn nothing, but you would drive the counter away to another table anyway if he sees you aping everything he does. Because you'd also be exposing both him and yourself in the process. Not to mention you don't know what kind of bankroll he has compared to yours so his bets should not necessarily be YOUR bets. I bet you also don't have a copy of his casino schedule either, to know when he will be there.
@@michaelbraun6504 I'm not saying I'd be stalking the guy. Just a random meeting at a table where I spot his counting. I do totaly get what you are saying about drawing attention to his play by aping his bets and not knowing his bankroll or bet spread. Thanks for your reply Michael. I watch a lot of your videos and I'm seriously trying to improve my counting through practice.
Hi, I playing online blackjack. If the RTP is 99.5% and the cash back is 1% then I should earn money in the long run. However, how to make sure they are not cheating?
Would buying a basic strategy card in a casino be a good cover play (assuming you are acting like you're looking at it to make decisions) considering it only costs $2 or $3?
Appreciate the video Colin. I am in my first 100 hours of casino play and this helps put everything into perspective and to trust the math in the long run.
@Colin I played a variation of BlackJack recently that was guaranteed pay out if you get 21, 3 to 2, dealer hits on a soft 17 but all the kings were removed from the shoe. What kind of edge does this give the casino? Should this game be avoided? How to hear from you big fan of your videos!
Okay Ive been practicing for about 2 months now doing research along the way and is a 1 to 5 bet spread good to keep risk of ruin low cant find any free calculators for this stuff anywhere I dont want to invest more than 500$ for my bank roll not looking to make a lot of ev even if its 2$/ hour any info would be great
Most people can't afford to spend 100-200 hours (which is common) to break even. For every 1 hour it might 2-3 hours of travel time. Can be 500 hundreds to break even if not lose it all. Church Team had a private financier invest and bail them out also. Most people wont have that.
if your playing within the means of your bankroll you should be able to withstand the downswings even ones that last longer than usual typically play lower until you notice the edge in your favor again the other thing is hey ok i lost my entire bankroll due to the these downswings but then you do what you need to do and re build how ever long it takes and start again
Hi, I really hope you see this comment but on the basic strategy chart it only shows hard counts up to 17, what if I have like a hard 18 or 19? Also starts at 8 so not including if I get like a 3 and a 4 to come out as a hard seven
It goes without saying that you always stand if you have hard 17 or more. And it goes without saying to hit a hard 8 or less. This is why most charts don't show this (but some do). There are few exceptions, such as... there are occasional times when you might double an 8 against a 5, 6 or even a 4 upcard. If rules allow surrender sometimes there is a correct play to surrender a hard 17 - like against an ace.
@@noskpain2792 You surrender only if the dealer has an Ace. This is what the charts say. I assume because under H17 rules, the dealer has a better shot at improving a soft 17 hand if not forced to stand. It'd be a mathematically close play anyway.
I saw a video talking about advanced basic strategy,where you should stand on 16 vs dealer's 10 when the 3 cards you have are low cards.What's your thoughts about that?
Disregard the advice. It's not what's in your hand, but the overall count of the shoe that matters. If the overall count remains negative, keep hitting. If the count turns slightly positive, like + 0.5 or better, then stand. Sounds like that advice was from early round single deck strategy from back in the day.
@@stevenhelgason8190 did you actually end up making profit over your ‘career’? im getting the feeling that ts was made up by casinos so more people would come in and lose with confidence.. for example if the count is high that doesn’t just mean the player has a higher chance of getting a blackjack- the dealer has the same chance too edit; not trying to be insulting, genuinely curious if this concept works outside of youtuber stories- or if im just wasting my time learning it
Watch the video again. You can't avoid variance. It's the unavoidable ups and downs of blackjack (or any gambling). In the long run you win come out ahead in blackjack if you play and count properly.
@@MrZzstop When he says ‘if you don’t do variants and you only do normal card counting’, I think he means deviations, not variance. Chezro- if you meant deviations (or indices), then you will basically win less. It is possible to have a winning game without using deviations, but you are more reliant on good table rules, and you are essentially giving yourself a pay cut. If you don’t want to learn them all to start with, focus on the ones that have the biggest impact and occur the most often (eg the ones that apply at any pos or neg TC plus the insurance deviation) Once you’ve got them, add in the ones that occur at TC -1 and +1. Then keep adding more, good luck!
Do you mean playing deviations? Yeah, depending on the rules and deck penetration, you can still gain the edge. Deviations add about 20-30% to your edge.
I think there are like 2 deviations that account for about half of the edge of all of them (hit 16 vs 10, forget the other one. insurance maybe? does that count as a deviation?). Learn at least those imo
@@billmoran6 Yes, taking insurance on a count of +3 or higher (6 deck) being number 1, followed by standing on 16 vs 10 with a positive count . Number 3 is if you have a hand of 15 against the dealer’s 10, you should stand at a count of +4 or higher. If nothing else learn those three.
How does the casino have an edge in blackjack? The cards are just as random for the house as they are us, no? If the player played by the same rules as the house would the edge flip?
No, on average you lose more hands than you win. One of the main reasons is that you make your decisions before the dealer and when you bust you immediately lose your stake no matter which hand the dealer has.
Something that really struck me watching this video is just how often language like this gets misused to rope people into sketchy business decisions. "It'll work out in the end, just stick it out!" ONLY works if you can accurately and perfectly identify what the math is, like in card counting. This channel is awesome for reminding us so often about perfect play and bankroll management because those are just as important as the strategy. The law of large numbers will always work out, but if you don't have absolute control over what that large number is, I guarantee the casino does. They're really good at it.
Is there a variant that makes any sense of a brand new shoe being 10s heavy? Ive had shoes like this and because I go to a negative count quickly and rising fast so I'm betting minimum. The cards coming out are great cards. Then obviously once the count changes as lower cards come out later in the shoe, the count can go positive but it's, in my mind a false positive because the high value cards have already gone at the start. Just wong out of shoes like this?
Wong out if the converted true count gets to a -2. Or unless the penetration is good wait to -3....or at least try to sit out a few rounds or take a "bathroom break" timed to return near the beginning of a new shoe.
variance is the illusion behind people gambling ... variance is the camo for ap to be allowded to play in casinos variance is what create emotional roller coster i LOVE variance ...
@@tylerdipietro4201 even when you win, you lose... there's few things that feel more like wasted time than sitting in a casino gambling for hours or days
Bad variance is not entirely hidden. Good luck is rare. Basically one should spread the risk or walk away early. Try 3 tables and spend 20 minutes on each instead of enduring an hour of "an evil dealer" which you come to and give money.
Small riddle: Adam and Bob are flipping coins. Adam flipped heads 7 out of 7 times. Bob flipped heads 3 out of 7 times. Who should you bet on to flip heads on the next flip? A) Adam, B) Bob, C) doesn't matter. Answer: Adam, because 7 out of 7 times means he might be cheating. Lesson: If you ever face an unbelievable streak, not only in Blackjack, at some point you might want to investigate if that really is just luck.
@@ionalien No, not my intention :) But even though the cards and coins don't have a memory, there are always other factors involved, like lack of skill.
@@Blackjackapprenticeship you need good deck penetration to get 1-2% of all the money you bet. I don’t think you can get that if they cut off 2 decks from a 6 deck shoe unless you really step up your bets on the plus counts. You won’t last long playing that way. I was spoiled by the excellent conditions I got in the 70’s and 80’s. I got well over 5% from those games. I still suffered some horrendous luck even with those conditions. I lost 20 consecutive hands twice. One time I had 2 blackjack blackjack ties. I had another 14 consecutive loss to start a session that ended up being a winning session. I had a dealer make 7 blackjacks against me out of 10 hands. I had a session where I won all my insurance bets. I had 4 consecutive blackjacks. I won 10 straight hands against a 4 deck shoe during a double digit negative count. I bet $1 on all of those hands and won $10 during that streak.
@@Blackjackapprenticeship my favorite place to play was the MGM Grand before the fire. They had 4 deck shoe games with excellent rules and you could find dealers who cut off only a 1/2 a deck. You could bet freely without fear of getting shuffled up on.
You are exactly correct. Unless you can keep more money off the table when you don't have an edge, your overall advantage is pretty miniscule, even assuming proper play and bet spread.
@@stevenhelgason8190 this is why the simple plus minus strategy isn’t good enough anymore. You need a strategy that can uncover more advantage situations and help prevent you from raising your bets when you actually have a disadvantage. You need a strategy that will help you play all of the hands more accurately. You simply have to keep a separate count of Aces for this. The player advantage is based on the total possible combinations of converting stiff hands into pat hands. Fewer possible combinations help the player. Removing a 5 from the deck eliminates 5 combinations. But removing a 2 from the deck eliminates only 2 combinations. Drawing a 2 can’t ever produce a 19,20, or 21. Drawing a 2 can only produce a 19 when the dealer hits a soft 17 only. When playing a 6 deck shoe game, you can have many more 5vs gone than 2s. At these times, you can have an advantage even if your simple plus minus count is negative. You will also be hitting 16 vs a 10 when you should be standing. You need a 5 and only a 5 to beat a 20. The reverse is also true. You can have a plus count , but because more 2s are out than 5vs, you will have a disadvantage when you think you have an advantage. You will stand on 16 vs a ten when you should be hitting. Look at basic strategy for single deck. You stand on 77 vs a 10 even though it’s just 14, yet you hit 15 and 16. This makes sense because your odds of getting a 3rd 7 is not very good. Only a 7 will beat a 20. Of course you would surrender if you could. But playing a 6 deck shoe game, you will hit. I played primarily against a single deck and could remember the some exact cards that had been played. When my count was even or close to even, I stood on 15 vs a ten when 6s had been played. This helped me reduce my losses on these bad hands that come up often. This concept also occurs when the dealer shows a 9, but to a lesser extent because it takes 2 cards to beat a 19.
There’s no worse feeling that when the losing sessions stack up in a row 😭
Yup, got my first losing streak over the weekend. It sucks but I’ll plow through it.
@@wildcatterry17 You got this man!
Dude, you're solid. I hope to get to your level someday. Keep on keepin on, brother.
ugh...the drive home in silence is bad or even worse...playing a Journey song bc then you also start thinking of your ex 😢
@@max_versus that's a double whammy for real especially an ex who introduced you to the casino
A good way to think about it is that. If you flip a coin enough times the amount of heads to tails will not be equal. But the ratio of heads/tails will approach 1:1
I don’t like to think of it like that, because in that case we’re better off going red or black on roulette. And not even bothering with counting cards.
@@brianbaker2884
The point wasn't about 50/50
It's the point that due to a statistical phenomenon called "regression to the mean", increasing the sample size will almost always bring you closer to the true odds
For example if you flip 8 heads and 12 tails, you might think it's rigged
But say after 1000 flips, it will be shockingly close to 500 tails 500 heada
A better way to think about it is that , if you flip the coin enough times, you'll probably wind up with a streak of 10 heads or tails in a row at some point. It doesn't mean the game is rigged, it's just a flukey streak that will happen from time to time with a large enough sample size. Over the long run, the streaks will cancel out and the 50/50 ratio will emerge.
@@dustinjames1268well explained
@@brianbaker2884 Counting cards gives you a 1-2% edge over the house. If you play long enough, get enough hands in, you will be earning money from the casino, no matter how bad your variance is. Roulette is unbeatable. No matter what, the house will always have an edge because of the green double/triple zeros. You WILL lose money playing enough roulette. If you don't even understand this concept, you should not be gambling.
Trust me, I know the feeling. I have had true counts of +5 and still lost. Sometimes it just comes down to the luck of the draw.
Literally happened to me an hour ago, and I went online to figure out wtf is happening...
Now I'm learning about variance
Nothing is guaranteed. Make sure you're playing a beatable game.
This is what I noticed and I could be absolutely wrong but when the True Count was +5 and higher playing triple hands was more advantageous than double hands which was more advantageous than just 1 hand till it drops back below +5. Again I understand it's difficult to switch to triple hands without being noticed or finding such less crowded tables these days if you are on a minimum betting table but could be one of the ways to maximize those big positive running counts!
It's why I gave up trying to do it for a living honestly. The swings ruined my mental health. I've had some sessions that seemed like impossibilities occur. My best session I made nearly $5k in one shoe at 2 x 150. Next day I went back and lost $3k in the same amount of time it too to win $5k. Lol The backoffs were also a huge factor. I dumped hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars into it and came out a financial loser. No regrets learning how to count or joining BJA but the game for a living is not something for someone who is A.) mentally unstable or incapable of controlling their emotions 24/7 at 110%
B.) Someone who is poor/working class/barely makes living wages and can't stretch the losing streaks that can occur
C.) Hasn't perfected their game to a T and cannot play through multiple shoes without skipping or missing a beat
I couldn't always do those things. Some people can. I still play but I don't think I will ever give it the same level of attention I did the past two years. Still, it's been a wild ride. I had a blast getting a rise out of people's reactions at the tables. I think it was worth it but if I could go back to the beginning I would have put more emphasis on learning good bankroll management. Good stuff as always Colin, thanks.
Facts 💯, I never tried to do this fulltime but I'm walking away because of some of the same reasons as you & I have 2 jobs now. Variance is a bitch
Spot on Chris. I think the key is to not only be focused on proper play, but somehow also be emotionally and financially detached from your bankroll(even though you want to keep it intact and try to grow it!).
For me, blackjack is a part-time hobby/side hustle. I don't even live too close to a lot of casinos. But I've found that keeping "blackjack life" separate from "regular life" is important.
@@jyo Yeah, it was fun, but financially it wasn't worth it. I lost so much time. I'm nearly 30 and I'm broke with nothing to show for it. I can't imagine how many other young aspiring pro card counters just got absolutely wrecked because they watched a few of his videos and read a few books like me, took their money and went into the casino thinking they'd be rich in a couple of years time if they just perfected their counting, learning deviations, deck estimation, True Count conversions, etc. Without learning how to vary their bets according to their overall bankroll and cash on hand, their goals, how to mitigate their risk.
I can't blame the guy for wanting to make card counting palletable for average people so he can keep his business going, grow it, and foster community and generate income for himself, but I know I'm not the only one who got wrecked because he fell for the marketing. It was marketed to me as something I could do; clearly I can count. But not something that was marketed to me as "Is this financially feasible for you?"
@@christophercarlone9945 100% I have been a professional gambler for almost 40yrs. I've taken multi year breaks for my mental health. I agree with you, it takes years to have the fortitude to mentally battle for money and emotionally survive long dry spells.
@@christophercarlone9945 I'm sorry to hear that, but it sounds like you were addicted to gambling, and not a true card counter. If you truly perfected your counting, deviations, and had a correct betting strategy as well as bankroll management, you would not be broke.
Basic strategy played perfectly results in a slight edge to the house. (It varies based on the rules in play.) You will lose more hands than you will win.
If you count cards, you will STILL lose more hands than you will win. The difference is that counting cards gives you some information that can swing your odds on some individual hands in your direction, at which you increase your bets. But, as Colin notes, you can have a hefty losing streak even when the count is in your favor.
Each session you play is an independent event. But within each session, it is not because you are allowed to see (and count) the hands that have been played. No longer random; the hands are dependent events, depending on the previous cards played. This all goes away with the shuffle, which is why the count reverts to zero. You're starting over.
I play near-perfect basic strategy, somewhere around 99%. I'm not a card counter. I should only lose a few hands more than I win in any session, right? Wrong. Because of variance, I once lost 11 hands in a row. Why? Because it happens. It is the long run, when you can move the odds in your favor by changing your bets based on the count is the only way to shift the long run towards your favor.
great explanation, rich! thank you so much!!!
Without a count, how do you determine your bet size for each hand?
@@max_versus I don't. I just bet the minimum because I'm not an advantage player. The house retains a slight edge and I'm merely gambling.
I have just been going through a bit of a losing streak. After going through a winning streak. Two sessions in a row, the dealer just kept getting unbelievable hands. So many blackjacks and 21s it was insane. It didn't matter how well I kept count. The "luck" was just all with the dealer. But two weeks ago, the luck was all with me. No matter how I played, I just kept winning hand after hand. So it equalled out this month. But, it was all a valuable learning experience. It taught me that variance is a bi*ch. All you can do is play your best and try to minimize your losses when the cards just aren't going your way. And remember that variance goes both ways. You just have to protect your bankroll as you ride through a downturn, secure in the knowledge that eventually it will swing in your favor - and when it does, don't be afraid to put the bets out there.
'unbelievable' is the most overused, idiotic word at the table. Dealer turning a bust card into a 6 card 21 is not 'unbelievable', it's happened so many times that its like the sun coming up in the morning.
@@IRequireMedication Semantics
David if you could help me out: I'm playing in Europe and my bankroll is 1,000$ with a table min of 1$, the game rules are normal(H17, no surrender) double deck. What should my bet spread look like? What should I bet according to the true count? I would by the BJA pro-betting software but it's expensive and my bankroll is pretty small. Thanks 🙏.
You do such a great job explaining Colin
Thank you very much you literally changed my life, I am from Mexico and there are a lot of beatable casinos 3 to 2 blackjack 6 decks 80% deck pen. i am making 15x times more money than my last Job
As a player of a few years, I've realized that a player needs to recognize when it just isn't your day. Recognize it quickly, and keep your losses to a minimum. Don't chase.
variance is not just something to do with card counting it happens in all aspects of your life where you will have ups and downs good days and bad days. Just know that if you have a bad day its just variance and you're still doing just fine and trending in the right direction in life.
Wow you upped the editing and production quality in this video nice 👍
You should do some video with french card counter, you would simply have a great time with us here ! hope one day you could meet one of us 😄
A lack of understanding of variance--and random, independent events, is why some people think they can develop a "system" to beat games like craps, roulette, and slot machines. You can't. Variance can cause you to come out ahead sometimes, just as it can cause your losses to be greater than expected.
The same goes for "hot" and "cold" tables/machines/wheels/etc. No such thing, except in hindsight. What has happened before has no bearing on what it going to happen. We humans have evolved to seek out patterns in information. It makes us more predictively accurate, which means we're more likely to succeed at something. It's the basis for hunting, agriculture, and science.
But sometimes random events form in ways that look like patterns. They're not, but we construct them anyway. (There is a whole school of thought around us forming these "paradigms.") Casinos take advantage of this. For example, if you approach a roulette table, you'll likely see a sign posted with the most recent numbers produced by the wheel. This is put there to encourage you to see a pattern (that doesn't exist) and cause you to bet accordingly. (The casino really doesn't care what you bet ON, only that you bet.) "Hey, 6 hasn't been hit yet, I'll bet on 6," they want you to think. But because each spin of the wheel--assuming the wheel is true--is a random event, that 6 is no more or less likely to come up than any other number. (And the switch the wheels often enough to that even if one had a proclivity to produce a particular outcome more frequently, it would be gone before anyone had a chance to calculate it.)
No hunches, no feelings, no sense of a hot table/machine/wheel/etc., not even a well-calculated chi-square analysis is going to help you discern the future.
Love the videos. I can totally attest to some rough losing streaks. Right now Im around 36 or so hours below break even and I’ve even started questioning my game. Got tested and passed. Next session in, playing DD. Got the tap on the shoulder and lost my local. But that was one heck of a compliment. A multi million dollar company ( they own many properties) telling me I am no long welcome at any of their properties (this was a trespass not a back off) because my play was too good. On to the next ones. And your casino 411, PBS, and forums are all worth the membership.
Hey colin I love your videos, km just getting into card counting and want to make it a career. I have 2 questions for you (maybe video ideas)
1. How do you stay motivated when you were practicing to make your game perfect? Did you ever feel like you have all the steps done and just start to get demotivated?
2. I've been looking at the math and listening to all your videos and the math works out but in my gut I fear that the math will not work for me, I wont be a winner (because you've said for every ap there are like 10 people who think they're ap's but really arent) and I'm going to get addicted to gambling and lose my life to it
1. You gotta have that fire. If you don't, there's no way you'll make it.
2. If your game is 100% and you get in enough hours, the math will work.
@@Blackjackapprenticeship thanks for the response
Edit: forgot to say that hearing that I need enough hours really makes sense and helps
I've experienced variance from the start, and I'm not sure my bankroll can survive it unless it changes soon. I can play for hours and barely come out ahead, or get killed and lose hundreds in a couple hours.
I play mostly 6 deck shoes, because single or double deck tables have either too many other players or too high minimums. I decided to play heads up with the dealer on 6 deck shoes whenever possible. So far, heads up just means I lose more, faster. The emotional beating during heads up is even worse lol.
I believe in the math, and I love card counting, 'm just concerned I'm about to get knocked out of the game before the math turns in my favor.
You have to have a conservative bet spread and grow ur bankroll
@@kidiz1224 I know that. But the only way to grow your bankroll is by winning more than you lose.
@@texasrebel7754 conservative bet spread. If you run out of money by playing a small number of hands you will never play enough hands for the math to work out and you might as well be gambling.
@@madhgraham Agree, that's the hump I'm trying to get over. I'm playing a conservative bet spread because the cards seem to go against me so much.
I feel fortunate in that I have 3 casinos within an hour or 1 1/2 hour drive that I can hit at leisure, so running up the hours isn't going to be the issue. It's keeping my payroll alive until the cards start turning in my favor.
@@texasrebel7754 good luck dude, hope it works out.
man i thought i was dumb but the guy sitting in the car sitting out negative variance is on another level i feel so much better 🤣
Probably worse than nothing becaues a winning streak kind of implies the count was probably good when he left.
Getting into universal concepts on this one. 👍
I appreciate this. But I do have to ask, if each shoe is an independent event, how does that mean you're continuously generating positive EV?
because even though you may lose a specific play, as long as you are making the correct choice you are generating positive EXPECTED value. in the long run, consistently making the correct choice will play out in your favor, even if the short term doesnt feel like it. This is the same for poker (my world)
Math
Yeah I lost a third of my bankroll in 1 night before. You can't control your short term luck or the variance. All you can do is generate +EV.
Great material as always. I've been watching your videos for some time now and tried your training app recently, it's really good. I think it would be great if you could make a seperate video about European Blackjack - I bet you have many viewers from overseas as well but they might often get confused that your videos are mainly about playing in United States. For example, I don't recall you ever mentioning about no-hole-card rule and how it affects basic strategy (I saw it explained on Wizard of Odds and the table has some differences not included on the universal BS you provide).
That is, assuming the you are confident in your game. Playing perfect strategy, keeping an accurate count. This won't totally protect you during a downturn, but it will minimize your losses.
Perhaps 50 years ago, some students flipped pennies hundreds of thousands of times and recorded the results. They didn't come up with 50/50 at all since one side of a penney is slightly heavier than the other.
This video subject is an example of why a large bankroll is important. 5 thousand bucks just isnt enough to start. Ideally a 1000 unit bankroll or a bankroll with a minimum of 100 top bets should be the least amount you have to play.
This dude Colin may have gotten lucky and suceeded when he started, but too small a bankroll is recipe for disaster
My least favorite but probably best example of variance is when you are at the table you got a high true count the cards come out the two people to the left of you get 20 and a BlackJack and the person to the right of you also gets 20 and you get stuck with an eight and a seven with the dealer showing a face card….
Surrender!
@@MrZzstop yeah, still sucks though
@@brianbaker2884 and you put out a lot of money because of a high true count to add insult to injury
@@jyo exactly
Holy fuck if that isn’t exactly right!!
What is a good amount of betting units should you bring for a typical session?
Longtime follower! My local casino allows maximum 2 hands per player with card or only 1 hand at max 10x table min without a card. How does playing 1 or 2 hands affect ev and how should bankroll be adjusted? Still 1% per hand of bankroll applies or bring down to 0.5%? Thanks in advance
It is a struggle to find a casino with good rules. The closest casinos to me allow you to play to hands at 10 buck minimum without players card.
I've been using the app and that's helping me along a bit. I'm still BRAND NEW to all this. I've ordered your book and I'll get that in my head when it comes in. I haven't pulled the trigger on a membership yet. Maybe I'll treat myself to that by the end of the year, once I ddecide if I can actually do this or not. I'm still kind of thinking that I simply may not be one of the people who can do this successfully.
What does 'EV' stand for in relation to card counting? And what does 'BP' stand for?
Despite having the edge from counting cards and good play, one can loose from the start and never recover. Its a tough business!
quick question about counting to make sure , you ALWAYS have to have a fresh shoe so you can start counting from the first card right ? Like you cant just hop in the middle of a game and start counting at that time .
It is ideal to start fresh from the top of a shoe of course. But if you miss a few early rounds, you can still jump in, especially if the penetration of the game is very good. You just have to pretend the unseen cards in the disposal tray aren't there and are instead behind the cut card in the shoe for your remaining deck estimations.
It's usually not worth it if there is more than a full deck gone though. Typically, if I come to a table with a few cards in the tray (like a half deck perhaps), I'll watch a couple rounds. And if the running count becomes a bit positive, I'll go ahead and sit down.
Great video Collin. Could you also make a video about playing multiple hands while keeping the same Ror?
I’m a full time day trader and most of these videos still apply. Good stuff
Have you tried using machine learning?
Yesterday I was initially up 300$ up on a high stakes table. But when I became the only player on the table, I started losing..I couldn't resist it and keep playing at the same table to get my EV back. Found it hard to count being a single player against the dealer. How to avoid this situation?
Slow the tempo of the game if you're having a bit if difficulty, because often enough the dealer will rush you(not necessarily a bad thing!). But to slow down, make your hand gestures slow and methodical. Same with placing bets. "Pause" to "think" briefly if you have to when playing your hand..
What is the standard deviation of 7 spots of blackjack?
Biggest factor is penetration (cut card placement). Most play terrible games like 6 deck with 2 decks cut off.
How do you deal with living expenses during a losing streak?
Colin I have been using the Hi-Lo count but made a few adjustments and I’m getting incredible results.A-6 count +1 and 8-K Count D-1 with only 7 being neutral.With these minor adjustments I’ve doubled a 3k bank within a month only playing about an hour at a time at the various casinos on the gulf coast playing at (double deck) 25 table min With good rules and playing with a 1-8 bet spread 25 TC 1 - 50 TC 2 - 100 TC 3 and 200 TC 4 Up.I’M I JUST GETTING EXTREMELY LUCKY??? AND HAVE YOU EVER TRIED THIS BEFORE???
How is ace out positive? A major part of Hi - Low is knowing when there's more tens and aces in so you get more blackjacks when increasing the bet.
@@RightURKen7 Same thought. Aces are hugely favorable to player due to splitting and BJs
Enter the Kelly Criterion Theory…nice to see you again Collin.. hope you and your family are doing well..👍🙏
Hey, basic strategy says double 11 vs A. Is that assuming a push if dealer shows blackjack?
There wouldn't be a push. The dealer would win if he/she turned up a blackjack. The decision to double would only come after the dealer electronically verifies that the hole card is a non-ten.
@@stevenhelgason8190 ah ok, thank you. In the UK the dealer only deals themselves one card instead of 2 which changes the dynamic in this situation somewhat
@@jameshewitt247 Interesting. I get what you're saying. I've only played blackjack where there is a traditional hole card check after an insurance offer from the dealer. Even so, and 11 vs. Ace is a very close descision to hit or double. Often enough, you would just hit under certain rule variations or negative counts.You definitely wouldn't double without the hole card check.
There should be strategy charts on the U.K. game. If the rules you describe allow a player to push a dealer blackjack if they were to get to 21, I'd still be inclined to only hit on that hand you describe(though I could be wrong). But I thought that in European rules, a dealer blackjack would be an automatic win for them (or a push if the player were dealt a 2 card blackjack).
In any case, the no-hole card doesn't sound like an exploitable game for the player.
Last night I endured six dealer blackjacks in one six deck shoe…all during high true counts
I had a time in 20hrs of play that I won back to back hands only a handful of times. Yes over 1,000 bets and almost ALWAYS Lost the next hand after a Win. It Felt like the I was thr unlukiest person ever.
Hi BJA team I´m fom europe does your 411casino guide also include information about casinos in europe or is it u.s only?
Hi Dani, I’m in Europe too. The 411 guide contains some information about some European casinos, but it’s very limited.
So what is the correct strategy when the deck goes super negative of say, -10 or lower, besides making the minimum wager?
Unfortunately I’m in a losing streak now near the beginning of my “career.” I am just 150 hours into playing at the casino, so I recognize there are probably a few mistakes, but I regularly test out on the app and get over 99% in the training suite. It’s just brutal to be down early on before I’ve had a chance to build the bankroll. Any suggestions?
Since my start, I too have been loosing continuously despite counting cards and playing perfect basic strategy. Counting doesnt help at all really when you just dont get any good cards at the table. I guess just be prepared to loose your bankroll and start over. Cause it can happen
My advice is to build your bankroll by continuing to put money into it. The micro stakes bankroll is more likely to disappear then grow, when you start with a 1000 and it's impossible to find a game with less then a $15 min. To spread a conservative 1-6 or $15-$90, the risk of ruin is just through the roof. because on your max bet you are putting out 10% of your bankroll on a tiny 2-3% advantage. So a great way to build that bankroll is. 1. Wong in at true 1.5 or better, wong out below true 1 only playing good hands dramatically reduces your ror
Went to vegas last week. The only 3:2 tables on the strip are $50 min now on eight decks, the double deck tables were 6:5, no surrender, and no double after splitting. Is counting even still profitable?
6:5 tables arent profitable.
It's much better to play 3-2 tables no matter how many decks you play with.
Its getting difficult out there. Good games are getting harder to come by. The only playable low limit games in Vegas are mostly off strip - like in the Boyd or Station properties
If you have a small bankroll, get off strip
It sounds like you are saying that your state of mind has nothing to do with it, or that does not effect your playing at all. Negative thinking, positive thinking, clear thinking, distracted thinking does not effect results?
Every flip of a coin is an independent event…but the law of probability takes place 💯 of the time. Flip the coin and you will see that even though independent…it will balance out from heads to tails…same for evens/odds, highs/lows.
I’m all about this stuff on my Channel for pick 3/4 lottery! I get the number crazy low using my methods. Had it to 3 numbers the other day…nice win off of just a few bucks and it was in the bag for this one! Had the perfect set up.
Bit off topic but..
If I've got my basic strategy sorted but my counting blows, would it be bad form to follow a counter I've spotted and mirror his bet variations?
Yes, it would be bad form.
Not only would you learn nothing, but you would drive the counter away to another table anyway if he sees you aping everything he does. Because you'd also be exposing both him and yourself in the process.
Not to mention you don't know what kind of bankroll he has compared to yours so his bets should not necessarily be YOUR bets. I bet you also don't have a copy of his casino schedule either, to know when he will be there.
@@michaelbraun6504 I'm not saying I'd be stalking the guy. Just a random meeting at a table where I spot his counting.
I do totaly get what you are saying about drawing attention to his play by aping his bets and not knowing his bankroll or bet spread.
Thanks for your reply Michael. I watch a lot of your videos and I'm seriously trying to improve my counting through practice.
Is card counting still valid on Continuous shuffling machines? If yes, How would you explain that?
Hi, I playing online blackjack. If the RTP is 99.5% and the cash back is 1% then I should earn money in the long run. However, how to make sure they are not cheating?
Would buying a basic strategy card in a casino be a good cover play (assuming you are acting like you're looking at it to make decisions) considering it only costs $2 or $3?
Hi, now that the casinos have shufflers how do we calculate true count and does card counting really work?
Appreciate the video Colin. I am in my first 100 hours of casino play and this helps put everything into perspective and to trust the math in the long run.
How does taxing work for winning players 🤔?
unrelated Q.....would you play a Push 22 game?
@Colin I played a variation of BlackJack recently that was guaranteed pay out if you get 21, 3 to 2, dealer hits on a soft 17 but all the kings were removed from the shoe. What kind of edge does this give the casino? Should this game be avoided? How to hear from you big fan of your videos!
Great video.
The music was maybe a little over the top on this one.
Okay Ive been practicing for about 2 months now doing research along the way and is a 1 to 5 bet spread good to keep risk of ruin low cant find any free calculators for this stuff anywhere I dont want to invest more than 500$ for my bank roll not looking to make a lot of ev even if its 2$/ hour any info would be great
Perfect timing
Most people can't afford to spend 100-200 hours (which is common) to break even. For every 1 hour it might 2-3 hours of travel time. Can be 500 hundreds to break even if not lose it all. Church Team had a private financier invest and bail them out also. Most people wont have that.
if your playing within the means of your bankroll you should be able to withstand the downswings even ones that last longer than usual typically play lower until you notice the edge in your favor again the other thing is hey ok i lost my entire bankroll due to the these downswings but then you do what you need to do and re build how ever long it takes and start again
We did it for years before we had investors. Just gotta grind!
@@Blackjackapprenticeship so you’re not gambling your own money…?
done.
I just don't play if I loose more than %50 hands in last 20 hands
Hi, I really hope you see this comment but on the basic strategy chart it only shows hard counts up to 17, what if I have like a hard 18 or 19? Also starts at 8 so not including if I get like a 3 and a 4 to come out as a hard seven
It goes without saying that you always stand if you have hard 17 or more. And it goes without saying to hit a hard 8 or less. This is why most charts don't show this (but some do). There are few exceptions, such as... there are occasional times when you might double an 8 against a 5, 6 or even a 4 upcard. If rules allow surrender sometimes there is a correct play to surrender a hard 17 - like against an ace.
@@stevenhelgason8190 If the dealer hits on soft 17 and you have a 17. Do you surrender or play the hand?
@@noskpain2792 You surrender only if the dealer has an Ace. This is what the charts say.
I assume because under H17 rules, the dealer has a better shot at improving a soft 17 hand if not forced to stand. It'd be a mathematically close play anyway.
I saw a video talking about advanced basic strategy,where you should stand on 16 vs dealer's
10 when the 3 cards you have are low cards.What's your thoughts about that?
Disregard the advice. It's not what's in your hand, but the overall count of the shoe that matters. If the overall count remains negative, keep hitting. If the count turns slightly positive, like + 0.5 or better, then stand.
Sounds like that advice was from early round single deck strategy from back in the day.
@@stevenhelgason8190 did you actually end up making profit over your ‘career’? im getting the feeling that ts was made up by casinos so more people would come in and lose with confidence.. for example if the count is high that doesn’t just mean the player has a higher chance of getting a blackjack- the dealer has the same chance too
edit; not trying to be insulting, genuinely curious if this concept works outside of youtuber stories- or if im just wasting my time learning it
So when i have a high true count i bet heavy & seem to loose a lot of hands!!! Anyone else experiencing this????
Yep. Happens more often than you want it to.
I’ve flipped a coin 10 times and it I’ve got five heads and five tails.
If you lose the count do you finish the hand and they get out? Wait for the next shuffle and then get back in?
If you loose the count leave the table figure out why you lost the count and then get back in after the shuffle
Just had a heater, then a loosing streak hit. Time for redemption!
Variance is the amount of losing that you to endure in order to realize your edge.
No way you can minimize variance unless you want to sacrifice profit for low variance. It's built in!
If you don’t do variants and you only do normal card counting, can you still succeed? (Just less EV?)
Watch the video again. You can't avoid variance. It's the unavoidable ups and downs of blackjack (or any gambling). In the long run you win come out ahead in blackjack if you play and count properly.
@@MrZzstop When he says ‘if you don’t do variants and you only do normal card counting’, I think he means deviations, not variance.
Chezro- if you meant deviations (or indices), then you will basically win less. It is possible to have a winning game without using deviations, but you are more reliant on good table rules, and you are essentially giving yourself a pay cut. If you don’t want to learn them all to start with, focus on the ones that have the biggest impact and occur the most often (eg the ones that apply at any pos or neg TC plus the insurance deviation) Once you’ve got them, add in the ones that occur at TC -1 and +1. Then keep adding more, good luck!
Do you mean playing deviations? Yeah, depending on the rules and deck penetration, you can still gain the edge. Deviations add about 20-30% to your edge.
I think there are like 2 deviations that account for about half of the edge of all of them (hit 16 vs 10, forget the other one. insurance maybe? does that count as a deviation?). Learn at least those imo
@@billmoran6 Yes, taking insurance on a count of +3 or higher (6 deck) being number 1, followed by standing on 16 vs 10 with a positive count .
Number 3 is if you have a hand of 15 against the dealer’s 10, you should stand at a count of +4 or higher.
If nothing else learn those three.
How does the casino have an edge in blackjack? The cards are just as random for the house as they are us, no? If the player played by the same rules as the house would the edge flip?
No, on average you lose more hands than you win. One of the main reasons is that you make your decisions before the dealer and when you bust you immediately lose your stake no matter which hand the dealer has.
Something that really struck me watching this video is just how often language like this gets misused to rope people into sketchy business decisions.
"It'll work out in the end, just stick it out!" ONLY works if you can accurately and perfectly identify what the math is, like in card counting. This channel is awesome for reminding us so often about perfect play and bankroll management because those are just as important as the strategy.
The law of large numbers will always work out, but if you don't have absolute control over what that large number is, I guarantee the casino does. They're really good at it.
Is there a variant that makes any sense of a brand new shoe being 10s heavy?
Ive had shoes like this and because I go to a negative count quickly and rising fast so I'm betting minimum. The cards coming out are great cards.
Then obviously once the count changes as lower cards come out later in the shoe, the count can go positive but it's, in my mind a false positive because the high value cards have already gone at the start.
Just wong out of shoes like this?
Wong out if the converted true count gets to a -2. Or unless the penetration is good wait to -3....or at least try to sit out a few rounds or take a "bathroom break" timed to return near the beginning of a new shoe.
Counters with good variance at the start of their careers go on to tell good stories
Counters with bad variance also have good stories… lol I do….
@@markhuber8345 let's hear it
@@paulklemer I don’t know which one to start with.. lol
variance is the illusion behind people gambling ...
variance is the camo for ap to be allowded to play in casinos
variance is what create emotional roller coster
i LOVE variance ...
haha
after years of playing i can tell you: this is a waste of time for everyone but the Casino
How so?
@@tylerdipietro4201 even when you win, you lose... there's few things that feel more like wasted time than sitting in a casino gambling for hours or days
The cards do have a memory though
@1:29 not a very good cut.... 6 🙂
Haha
Bad variance is not entirely hidden. Good luck is rare. Basically one should spread the risk or walk away early. Try 3 tables and spend 20 minutes on each instead of enduring an hour of "an evil dealer" which you come to and give money.
What’s the cost of your class
Small riddle:
Adam and Bob are flipping coins.
Adam flipped heads 7 out of 7 times.
Bob flipped heads 3 out of 7 times.
Who should you bet on to flip heads on the next flip? A) Adam, B) Bob, C) doesn't matter.
Answer:
Adam, because 7 out of 7 times means he might be cheating.
Lesson: If you ever face an unbelievable streak, not only in Blackjack, at some point you might want to investigate if that really is just luck.
Are you suggesting that the casinos are cheating?
@@ionalien No, not my intention :) But even though the cards and coins don't have a memory, there are always other factors involved, like lack of skill.
Just can’t win guys its all bout luck.
Colin I loss every day,,
😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
bahahah ahanahanha. babahabbababhahah
The BJA forum in a nut shell.
Did you really shoot this video after I lost 5k on bjackjack ? Really bro 😔
You are lucky if you get 0.50% over the house the way blackjack is dealt today.
Nah, not if you play good games. 1-2% edge.
@@Blackjackapprenticeship you need good deck penetration to get 1-2% of all the money you bet. I don’t think you can get that if they cut off 2 decks from a 6 deck shoe unless you really step up your bets on the plus counts. You won’t last long playing that way. I was spoiled by the excellent conditions I got in the 70’s and 80’s. I got well over 5% from those games. I still suffered some horrendous luck even with those conditions. I lost 20 consecutive hands twice. One time I had 2 blackjack blackjack ties. I had another 14 consecutive loss to start a session that ended up being a winning session. I had a dealer make 7 blackjacks against me out of 10 hands. I had a session where I won all my insurance bets. I had 4 consecutive blackjacks. I won 10 straight hands against a 4 deck shoe during a double digit negative count. I bet $1 on all of those hands and won $10 during that streak.
@@Blackjackapprenticeship my favorite place to play was the MGM Grand before the fire. They had 4 deck shoe games with excellent rules and you could find dealers who cut off only a 1/2 a deck. You could bet freely without fear of getting shuffled up on.
You are exactly correct. Unless you can keep more money off the table when you don't have an edge, your overall advantage is pretty miniscule, even assuming proper play and bet spread.
@@stevenhelgason8190 this is why the simple plus minus strategy isn’t good enough anymore. You need a strategy that can uncover more advantage situations and help prevent you from raising your bets when you actually have a disadvantage. You need a strategy that will help you play all of the hands more accurately. You simply have to keep a separate count of Aces for this. The player advantage is based on the total possible combinations of converting stiff hands into pat hands. Fewer possible combinations help the player. Removing a 5 from the deck eliminates 5 combinations. But removing a 2 from the deck eliminates only 2 combinations. Drawing a 2 can’t ever produce a 19,20, or 21. Drawing a 2 can only produce a 19 when the dealer hits a soft 17 only. When playing a 6 deck shoe game, you can have many more 5vs gone than 2s. At these times, you can have an advantage even if your simple plus minus count is negative. You will also be hitting 16 vs a 10 when you should be standing. You need a 5 and only a 5 to beat a 20. The reverse is also true. You can have a plus count , but because more 2s are out than 5vs, you will have a disadvantage when you think you have an advantage. You will stand on 16 vs a ten when you should be hitting. Look at basic strategy for single deck. You stand on 77 vs a 10 even though it’s just 14, yet you hit 15 and 16. This makes sense because your odds of getting a 3rd 7 is not very good. Only a 7 will beat a 20. Of course you would surrender if you could. But playing a 6 deck shoe game, you will hit. I played primarily against a single deck and could remember the some exact cards that had been played. When my count was even or close to even, I stood on 15 vs a ten when 6s had been played. This helped me reduce my losses on these bad hands that come up often. This concept also occurs when the dealer shows a 9, but to a lesser extent because it takes 2 cards to beat a 19.
Don't worry about real money...just generate EV 🤓
That statement, as facetious as it sounds, is absolutely true (as long as the EV you strive to generate is positive),
I know why black jack players loose so much. They’re playing black jack………………