As an ex-craps dealer I can say that dealers are not immune to the crazy thought processes that some players have. There are plenty of dealers who are addicted to gambling. They live near, and work in a casino, just to feed their addiction.
@@mikewhite735 true..i have personally witness half dozen dealers playing at a DIFFERENT casino from where they work playing at the blackjack tables and losing soo very badly...Making numerous trips to the ATM for more money..On the flip, there are blackjack dealers in my casino that are reformed gamblers and havent placed a bet or worked a slot in years..Beware those types as they usually arent pulling for u to win..
I tell my gambleholic friend all the time. The dealer has no bearing on wether you win or loose. He\she just pulls the cards from the shoe. He plays baccarat.
There is one fool-proof system not based at all on math or simulations. I believe they discussed it on this documentary program I watched: Bart: Dad, if you take me to Vegas, I'll teach you how to cheat at blackjack. Homer: Boy, you don't need to cheat when you got a system. Bart: What's your system? Homer: I don't tell your mother how much I've lost.
1) Playing a streak ... press those bets. 2) Betting when you think you are due to win. 3) Leaving when you're up. 4) Predicting the flow of the cards. 5) Believing other plays can screw up the cards. 6) Thinking there is a way to ALWAYS win. 7) Blaming the casino for cheating you. 9) Using a progressive betting systems. 8) Believing the dealer is "lucky." 10) Any strategy that is not based on math or computer simulation, don't use it.
About the "quit while you're ahead" myth .. I'd think that really depends on what you're at the casino to do. If by ahead you mean "I made a rough estimate of how much I realistically expected to win tonight and I've made decently more than that", then I don't see why not getting up while you're ahead would be unwise?
Because all actions are independent so you can keep winning. In the long term you're going to make more money the longer you correctly count and play. If you're ahead and decide to leave then the only come out on top if you never bet your money again.
@@bradleygamble4866 But they're talking about gambling myths, not card counting. If you go to a casino to gamble and win big, it's better to quit qhile you're ahead if you don't plan on gambling year in year out. In the long run, you will lose. So to take advantage of the high variance throwing you onto a big win is perfectly legitimate, if you don't plan on playing again.
Not only that but setting yourself realistic targets and realistic acceptable losses is a safer way to gamble. It stops you the human from going on tilt or getting sucked into irrational thinking. If you're immune to that then you don't need to and good for you. Personally I'm a very rational math based person but if I'm losing big the temptation to chase the losses is real and that's when I make bad decisions that leads to bigger losses. The need for that strategy is not math based but to address flaws in the human psyche.
The first one is spot on..... Rolling a 10 before a 7 is 2-1. If you roll 1000 10’s in a row, what are the odds of a 10 coming next roll??? Anyone? It’s 2-1 against. You aren’t on a winning streak, you were on a winning streak.
Vincent Winkleblech Be careful with your wording. The odds of a 10 coming next roll is 11:1 against. What you meant is the odds of a point of 10 being rerolled before a 7 is 2:1 against. However if a 10 has rolled 1000 the times in a row, you need to question if the dice are unbiased.
your confusing odds with probability . The odds of a 10 coming next vs a 7 is 1:2 ...but the probability of it coming 1001 time grows exponentially with every roll. so can it come ….yes is it probable...no!!!
I gotta say that I disagree with leaving when you're up being a myth. The Casino always has the advantage, so if you were lucky enough to be up a significant amount, logic and odds dictate that you are better off leaving while you're up as the chances of losing is higher than it is for winning.
I have come back three times but only to break even. I done some rare things at the casino and what I call milestones. So yeah I see what it means; don't push your luck or don't over work yourself.
Well yeah, but this only works if you go into a casino for the first time in your life, get lucky and win a big hand/big slot machine pull, and then you leave and never play in a casino again. I think what the video was getting at is it's not a viable strategy to go into a casino, win, leave while you're up, and then go to a casino again with the same strategy of "leaving while you're ahead" because it won't work out in the long term.
@@royjonzejr Lol well it works if you do end up being up. If you lose it all then well ya can't exactly walk away up now can ya? But if you DO happen to be up by a decent amount then it's best to stop at that point. If ya do that each time you're up well then you walk away with money instead if giving your winnings right back to the house. It's worked for me plenty of times in slots for sure. Whenever I hit & end up with over what I put in, I cash out. Same with Blackjack. If I've been playing for several hours & end up w a 50% gain or so, or if I happen to get ballsy & put a lot down on a single hand & win it, then I'll walk away for the night right after that hand. I usually stay consistent w my bets in Blackjack, but there was one time when it was the last hand of the night & I decided to bet $200 on my last hand. Doubled down on the hand & won. Walked away right then & there. Lol one of the dudes @ the table was like you are dog ass lucky! & I was like yeah I ain't complainin', Night.
@@skins4thewin You still don't understand their point. Their point is gambling at blackjack is not a series of independant sessions where your luck gets reset each time you "quit". Think of your casino experience as a a single blackjack game. You have never truly left the blackjack table. You're still playing the same game. And you quitting while you're ahead is just you on a win streak. If you keep playing, you will eventually start losing, and the more you keep playing, the more this will trend towards you losing more than winning. Doesn't matter when you decide to leave the table. If you aren't card-counting, you will lose in the long run. The only time "quitting while you're ahead" works is if you decide to quit blackjack forever when you're up in your lifetime games. This is perfectly possible in the short term. You just take advantage of the variance swinging in your favour. But you then need to never play again.
Agreed. Also, there also a couple other caveats. 1. The positive cash flow benefit of having money now and losing it later versus losing it now. 2. The ability to find a better game or improve betting strategy after that winning session, or to make the decision to never play again.
I'd love to hear a list like this for APs! Such as stuff like "Index plays don't matter" or "you don't need a bankroll of $5000 or more to be an AP" and stuff like that.
Technically you don't need a bankroll of 5000 dollars or more, but you start to play a more and more dangerous game the less you start with, and if you DO get down really low, you really have to quit if you're under about 300, because you don't have the money to make a larger bet and if you do, you won't have the money to split it multiple times.
There's a reason why myth #2 is literally called The Gambler's Fallacy ;) As to myth #4, one of my coworkers who predominantly deals Baccarat says that whoever invented the board that tracks hand outcomes in a shoe, that person is an absolute genius. And he's totally right. It makes the players feel like they're in control and can predict the next hand's outcome if they can find the pattern. We have those on our Roulette tables as well, and it's entertaining (and a bit sad) to see the players staring intently at those boards, jotting down notes and trying to decode the mysteries of statistics and variance
I'm an ex-dealer It is easy to win on a 'honest' roulette. All roulettes in the world are rigged..! On a onnline casino i saw a roulette with a min. 50 cent and 500 euro maximum. If it is a 'honest roulette' i will win always..100 procent!
If you low bet, Spencer’s right about learning perfect basic strategy anyway... I wouldn’t trust video poker, but knowing perfect basic strategy, though will leave you in a negative EV, will not be so bad. Still have to bare in mind, it’s a matter of independent events... you still need to be prepared for some nights where the game can and will kick the crap out of your bank account
jason colbourne I was playing 25 dollars a hand like 10 hands wasent winning shit lost over 300 dollars kept busting all the time still up like 300 dollars but lost 300 in casino profits
In the game of blackjack you will always have more losing hands then winning hands... because the player has to play his hand before the dealer plays his hand!
2:00 is classic It's hard to put into words, but people get "The law of averages" mixed up with "The law of large numbers" all the time. The law of large numbers states that the larger the sample, the more likely that the equity of the events would be accurately realized. Example, flipping a coin 10 times vs 10,000 times would generate different experimental results, and the 10k sample would be more reliable and accurate, because of the sample The "law of averages" states that the equity of a situation will be realized in the long run, so if in the short run things are going one way, it's bound to turn around. These differences are not semantics, one is gambler`s fallacy, one is an equity estimate of probability and expected value
For an actual gambler (not a card counter), there IS a good reason for quitting while you're ahead. The positive emotional effects that it has on the person are very beneficial for their mental health. Similarly, quitting while you're slightly behind over many sessions is better emotionally than losing a s---load in one long session. Please bear in mind that I'm talking about gamblers. For a card counter, I understand that the math over time dictates that you WILL come out ahead because you have a slight edge over the house so you need to keep playing as much as possible and get your hours in.
@@tortuga3402 Why are you here then, watching a video like this? I wouldn't go to a video for people with gambling problems and post "You should play!! You should gamble! Just quit while you're ahead!" My point is, if you're going to gamble (and this is a gambling-related video), then I think it's better to quit while you're ahead if you can.
@@ChristmasEve777 Look at the other videos on this channel, not even they are encouraging gambling. This channel is dedicated to advantage players, not gamblers. Advantage players still fall victim to fallacies and poor judgement when starting out, so gambling myths often apply to beginner APs.
@@tortuga3402 Yeah, 2+ years ago, I watched a ton of his videos... all about gambling. This was a very appropriate place to say "quit while you're ahead". Now buzz off and stop trolling! You're making no sense whatsoever!
Fair question: Why can't it be "Quit while you're ahead and continue tomorrow freshened up" Which will be the same as continue right now, with the upgrade of renewed enthusiasm for the winning experience and cool head, provided you have finished the round (shoe)
My grandpa once told me that the easiest way to double your money is to fold it over once, and put it back in your pocket. I mean, it never stopped me from gambling, but it's still a cool sort of grandfathery saying.
Leaving when you are up is actually optimal because leaving is always optimal (assuming you are not playing a game where expected value can sometimes go positive).
Leaving when you are up is a winning strategy...if you never play again for the rest of your life. If you play regularly then it is just one data point among hundreds or thousands.
@@garyzhang4306 I wasn't trying to 'prove' anything, just pointing out that quit while you are ahead is a meaningless concept to anybody that gambles a lot in negative expectation games. Peace.
I usually leave when I'm a couple of hundred bucks either way--up or down. Not because it affects the odds of winning future hands--it doesn't. But after a couple of hundred bucks either way, it starts to feel like real money and I begin caring about the outcome. At that point it isn't fun. So, I'm usually good for about 30-60 minutes of play before I'm done.
Is it advantageous to ask the dealer to shuffle the deck when the true count is really deep in the negatives? Or would it be better to continue playing and hope the count goes back up?
Yeah, it's definitely advantageous. But it might be a tip-off to the pit that you're counting. I've done it lots of times, but be cautious about how often you ask.
cards don’t have memory but the player does. So from a psychological point of view leaving while having a positive result.... is always great for setting the table for your next session.
My advice is different. I double down my base bet when Im up. Then If I lose some, I leave when Im still up. If I win some, I keep going and maybe try to x4 my bet then. This is how you build up to some crazy streak all while looking like a basic degenerate
Would it be easier to just count the "10s" in the shoe? There are 96 "10s" in a 6 deck shoe so if you keep track of how many have already been used then couldn't you use that in the same way as the normal counting?
The flow of the cards can be real. Some people can keep track of how many low cards vs High cards have been played. They are basically counting cards without actually counting.
One time I sat down at a blackjack table with other 3 players who were already seated. The first round I got a soft 18 against the dealer's 10. Basic strategy says to hit soft 18 against a 10. So I hit it and I got a 7 so it became a hard 15, and then I hit it again and I bust. The dealer and the players at the table looked at me like I am an idiot. . One of players at the table told me that 18 is good enough so there's no need to hit. I told him that soft 18 will rarely win against a 9 through ACE if you follow math, so it's better to hit and improve my hand. Then he said that oh w.e I am just new to the game and that i don't know how to play. And what's most depressing thing is that everyone at the table was on his side telling me that I should listen to him. I wonder if any of those players actually studied basic strategy before they came to the casino to play live blackjack. After many many rounds I realized that those players didn't really follow basic strategy. I saw someone double a 9 against a 9, asking for even $, not splitting 8s against a 10, and chasing their loses etc... They just played the game using their own strategy and completely abandon Basic Strategy. And then later they left the table cuz they were pissed that they lost so much $.
LMAO I love when people try to tell me how to play...then they lose like 8 hands in a row. That's when I say "it's all random dude, just follow basic strats, if anything just to have an organized way of playing."
Silver Yoshi It happened to me numerous times. Whenever I hit a soft 18 or double my soft 18 people always get mad at me. They think that soft 18 is a very good hand but in reality it is not.
My most memorable similar story was, it was me and some Asian woman at the table. You know the kind, the kind that only speaks broken English and you wonder if she's actually legally in the US. Anyhoo so one hand, the dealer showed a 3 and I got a soft 18. And I doubled down. And she was APPALLED that I would do such a thing and tried to talk me out of it as I was doing it. APPALLED! And then the dealer deals me a 3, and she's shocked and annoyed that I was evidently dumb and lucky and that it would work out for me despite doing something so stupid.... until the dealer also got a 21, and would have busted if I had stood on the soft 18 and let the dealer have the 3. And she's screaming at me "NEXT TIME YOU LISTEN TO ME!" Spoiler alert, I never listened to her. Ha ha. I'll tell you one thing, I was glad I caused her to lose her money, because I was like her in one way, I was feeling satisfied to see a fool parted from her money, she was merely wrong about which one of us was a fool.
@@medexamtoolscom The problem with some players is that they don't follow 100 percent basic strategy. In the worst-case scenario they will act like they know 100 percent basic strategy but in reality they only know like 70 to 80 percent of it. They memorized the very obvious ones like standing 12-16 against a 4-6, splitting Aces, and double a 11 against 2-6. But when it comes to the complicated ones are like soft 18 against a 9-Ace, doubling on soft 18 against 3-6, splitting 9s against a 9, splitting 8s against a 10, and etc.. They would just guess or pretend that they know how to play those hands.
I never play blackjack. Too many idiots and you are NOT going to win. Craps. That's it. Way more fun and you are all playing against the house. Whoop it up and enjoy. We have ''blackjack'' at our company party every Christmas. I bust out every single time.
My favorite is #1 "the heater or winning streak" I like getting that advice while the true count is dropping below -2. I'm waiting to lose a hand or two so I can bounce off the negative shoe to another table. All while getting unsolicited advice to push my bets One time I disappeared from a table with a true count of -6. A few minutes later I hear one of the casino regulars scream "This freaking game the only way you win is to play freaking stupid!"
Yep. That painful winning streak during a negative count and the dealer keeps mentioning how much you would have made if you'd pressed your bets like they told you!
The count goes up and I’m on a winning streak: “I’m winning so I better bet more now!” The count goes up and I’m on a losing streak: “I need to bet more in order to make up for my losing streak!” The count goes down and I’m on a winning streak: “I need to lower by bet so I don’t risk all the money I just got!” The count goes down and I’m on a losing streak: “I’m losing so I better bet less now!” I get backed off: “I’m not counting cards, I just know how to predict the flow of the cards!”
Quitting while you're ahead is probably the best myth for the losing gambler 1) losing players NEED an excuse to leave. This is a good one. Not playing at all is best, but playing for a small amount of time is next best. 2) Most gamblers feel good winning, and only play for the good feelers. Leaving when you're ahead protects you from bad feelers which comes from losing it back, and secures the good feelers that are rare. Also see loss aversion and prospect theory. 3) Taxes. Sometimes winning too much can cost you a lot of money. Quitting at 9.9k up is better than 80k (a smaller % of the time) because of taxes.
One nice thing about being Canadian is never being taxed on gambling winnings 😝 instead of capitalism where the casino wins and the players are further gouged when they have a little bit of success, the casinos are heavily taxed the way they should be!
What Are Your Thoughts on A Auto Shuffler Machine That continues shuffling discarded cards...Is that good for Card Counting?? Or being Fair to Both Casinos and Players?
myth #3 is wrong. "Leaving when you are up" actually has psychological reasons behind it which is good to do so and is proven in science. Everything is not just math as we are human beings and have feelings.
In any particular session I always have an amount that that I will walk away from if I lose and amount I will walk away with when I've won. I also put a time limit of +/- 45 minutes of play. I will typically watch a table to see how the cards are running and when I feel the count is my favor I will sit down (I prefer 2nd base), typically playing $25 to $500 a hand. I've had many more up days than down days but my down days are capped. I am very disciplined and never deviate from this strategy.
I’m really interested in the math behind ‘messing up the flow of the cards’ from a card counter perspective. Reason being that when the count is really high, there’s not an ‘equal chance’ that the card distribution would’ve been different had they hit or not. I’m sure when the deck is large, say 6 or 8 shoe this isn’t as important, but def would be interesting to see the math behind it
I'm the guy in the comments that's only lost once. It was the first time I played, never go all in after you 1000x your bankroll. Never go all in, in general. I've only played 5-10 times total, though lol. Disadvantaged player, learning to count. I have a strategy, progression betting. I don't know the math for it and honestly I don't feel like everything has been accounted for if you say that counting is the only method of advantage play. That sounds more like good marketing for your website. I play perfect basic strategy while using 5% of my bankroll as a base bid, I leave when I gain 50% of that bankroll plus a 5% tip. This generally takes 15-20 minutes. The total bankroll doesn't change from game to game. If I'm on a losing streak, after every two hands lost, I double my bet to 10% of my bankroll since there's a lower probability that I'll lose again. If I'm losing money quickly, I play two hands to stabilize my losses while I'm waiting out a winning streak. If I start losing money faster, I return to single hand plays. I always bet 5% when I'm on a winning streak. I feel like some counting can be done intuitively and effectively if you're minimizing your bets and have a moderately high IQ due to patter recognition. For example: doubling down on 12 when you know a lot of 10/A &
But what about someone on 3rd base taking a card. Say they get a 10 and that could’ve been the dealers bust card.... that does in fact effect the whole table ??
I can think of a very good reason to leave when you're "up". Before you started, if you promised yourself you'd leave when you are up, you should leave when you are up. Same as drinking. If you promise yourself you'll leave the bar after 3 drinks, you had better leave the bar after 3 drinks. If you don't, this might be an indication you have a problem. You can't trust yourself. It's hard enough to outsmart the Casino without having to outsmart yourself at the same time.
I think you can get more of an advantage when playing with bad players. If they double for less and let you fill in the gap you can get part of there profitable doubles.
I love doing this. To reduce the risk of not getting paid I say to them “Can I put up the rest of the money for your double? Just to be clear, I’m investing in your hand. I expect my money back and the profit if it wins.” Sure there’s always a small chance they won’t pay and there’s nothing you can do then, but I haven’t ever had that experience. Find a player who always lets you invest in their good hands and you’ve got a situation that’s way more profitable than regular counting!
I’ve done this too, and I have since stopped doing so. I find that most people are honest enough to give you your share back however; I’ve done this at tables and had people give me wrong amounts back (which in most cases I’ve interpreted as bad math or intoxication). I’m too non confrontational to tell anyone besides the dealer if they screw up on a pay out.
This helps me alot! I shall implement these more as I make more regular visits to casinos and try out card counting. Baccarat is fun but I would like to get good at blackjack!
I follow the third myth, but that's only cuz at the moment I'm treating blackjack more like a profitable hobby than anything else. I have a system where I color up and ask for a comp after losing twice. I'll typically buy in for about 10 hands at the minimum ($150, since my house's minimum is $15). The third myth is probably the least bad of all these, but it requires discipline and lots of it. It's also compatible with other games too not just blackjack.
@@Pokeball01 - You need to come to the del Lago in upstate NY. They'll lay free buffets on you left and right for $15 action. Bump it up a little and you've got free rooms, Sunday - Thursday. No swimming pool, though.
Me too, and it DOES have benefits. It isn't just purely irrational to do so. 1: It means you'll have positive days a much higher fraction of the time. I have 102 good memories and 12 bad ones instead of perhaps 60 against 42, because I quit when I reach a certain goal and keep going when I go far in the red. And winning 2000 dollars doesn't give you 20 times the pleasure of winning 100. Is it so irrational to value that? And the best memories of them all ARE the yo-yo days, when I ended a LITTLE ahead to end with HARD earned money; how epic a memory is it, to get down 1450 dollars and get it all back and end the day 19 dollars ahead, while on another day, if I hadn't quit at +200 on one of those days that I gained, little do I know which ones, but maybe it would have been +1500 instead, or maybe it would have been -1500, or even worse, for me to have gained 1500 and then lost it all and more. I don't want my head filled with memories like that, and I think it has VALUE to take measures to prevent it, i.e. to quit when ahead by a certain goal. And 2: Also, I would have probably been banned from every casino within 200 miles 5 times over if I had kept going after winning a lot and played for hours and hours and hours on all 114 of those days, I wouldn't have been able to go back to the SAME casino 30 times in a row over a period of 10 months, they'd have discovered and banned me long before that. I would have run out of nearby casinos to go to and I still wouldn't have been up 5000 instead of 1400 (where I stand today), because I'd have been kicked out after playing for 1/3 as much total time, instead of day after day, being welcome the next day. It's good cover, it makes you look like a superstitious idiot, and that's what you want them to think you are.
Btw. matemathicly sound system is progressive betting for rulet, but only on theoreticle level. You can bet every time when you lose double the amount to red. When you finally win (which can teoreticly never happen, but it is really unlikely), than you win you first bet. But it imply unlimited time, and unlimited bet size, which unfortunatelly is not possible in real life :-(
I keep telling people, don't look at patterns just play and gamble. Casino want players to think there's a pattern because they are inclined to lose more, like with Baccarat or the gamble feature on slots, it convinces people to do mixed bets which makes you lose more.
Most of the games now use a shuffler after every hand...so...where once you could hang out w a 6 deck shue and work deep into the deck until they shuffle, they now just shuffle
I went to a casino for the first time. Left when I was up $52.50, and haven't been back since then. Though the casinos in my state are out of the way and hard for me to get to, so I'll rarely, if ever, go back.
Regarding the "flow of the deck" that's obviously bs, but is there a way to just observe the 10's vs low cards that were played- without actually counting, and get a 'feel' for when the count is in your favor? Kind of like a hack to counting
Today was my first time playing at a cassino, the game was blackjack and dam I won 8 hands In a roll never been so happy, the adrenaline lol and then I left before lose 😁
If card counting works, surely 'I lost therefore I'm going to win'/'I won therefore I'm going to lose' also works? I guess it's not enough to gain the edge, but it stops being a complete fallacy: chances are the count is higher if you were losing, and lower if you were winning
Quitting while ahead is not necessarily good advice. I've watched people on losing streaks chase their money all night long then as soon as they get a little win streak they get nervous and cash out. They say they're quitting while ahead but they're walking away from a decent run while staying to play when losing. They should do the exact opposite.
@@eane7238.. Anyone that knows anything about cards and percentages knows that they do run in streaks. The longer deal with them the truer they became. You never leave the table when riding a wave or even if just grinding it out back & forth. You leave when cards are running cold and you're losing. Ya don't chase it. So yea, I'm giving good advice. Don't know what you're guving.
@@eane7238.. You're seriously telling me to prove it with math. Lol.. stop being a clown man. I don't have to prove anything to you. Especially basic common knowledge mathematical facts about tue percentages. - Just shhhh....
@@mikewhitney2147 grown man resorting to insults after being challenged intellectually, your parents would be ashamed, Mike. The guy in the video who is much more successful and smarter than yourself has made videos on this topic, you're seeing patterns that aren't there, typical case of the gamblers fallacy. there is no "wave" to ride, flow or pattern to play, you're just a typical gambler that casinos rely on, just smart enough to think you figured something out but not smart enough to recognize that you're making up stuff that doesn't work and can't be mathematically proven.
1. I wong into a BJ game or play heads up double deck (60% pen or better using Hi-Lo and double count) 2. I take maybe a $100 of my winnings to craps and play the Wizard of Odds strategy (pass, dont pass line with max odds- $5 or $10 tables) 3. I go to poker room and join a $1/2 or $2/4 table, play tight-aggressive and murder the fish I am a part time recreational AP with a fulltime job and other hobbies so I dont really care how long I last and I use player cards because I make big bets and its foolish for me to pass up on those perks!! I was trained by one of the best that no one has heard of and I'ma ride this wave until I can't no more. 2 years in and no heat in site. I might do this professionally for a couple years and use the money to open a business because I'd rather be my own boss.
I played baccarat once online evolution gaming. i started with $1 on player because it has won 3 times in a row, so i rode the streak and it proceeded to win 14 times in a row in total, each time i won i doubled it. At the 10th win i thought it was too risky so at $512 i betted $50 and lost, the streak broke. So i cashed out the $462 and never played baccarat again
But, by your own admission, every hand of blackjack is NOT an independent event. Regardless of the shoe size, every hand of blackjack is dependent on the prior hands in that shoe (except for the first hand, obviously). The only time every hand of blackjack would be independent is when the shoe is shuffled after every hand.
I live near a casino that does all these shady tricks and for some reason, nobody notices what their doing? They slam the shoe on the table. They tell you , they do it to get the next card out of the shoe easier! Lmao! If that was the case, they're admitting the shoes they buy are shit. They slam the shoe when they want to notify the pitboss of something. I know at the casino I play at this is true. Not all the dealers do it. I've observed only the more proficient dealers do this. More trusted dealers to the casino. There may be other reasons they do it but not at this place. Also, whenever I get a good shoe, they change dealers and cut the deck. That changes the whole order of the shoe. This may be obvious to some but so many people don't see this shit. I've observed many tricks they pull to gain more edge.
Colin if a casino offered you a job for the right amount of money in some sort of extremely high level AP countermeasures position would you consider taking it ?
He can say it but he lost in court. Let me put it this way: If Phil Ivey had taken me as a partner instead of that Chinese lady, he would still be kicking ass and nobody would be the wiser. (and I would be set for life, lol)
I would say the casino angle shot him. If he had lost at the table, he wouldn’t have gone to court. If he wins the casino gets the court to both nullify, and impose the casinos expected win. Seems the casino by agreeing to the terms was effectively and possibly knowingly in a no lose situation.
I'd rather leave when I am up than chance losing it all if I keep playing. Even though the odds don't change whether I keep playing or not, the house still has the edge.
But that only works if you quit forever and never come back. The next time you play there's an equal chance variance will go against you in the opposite direction
This is all great to hear, but unfortunately the vast majority of people do not have the capital to be a card counter/advantage player. A strategy I like to use is just to press my bets by 1 unit after a win and keep doing this until a loss. I know I can not beat the casino doing this but the times i win i win big.
You're going to light a fire with that comment. (we're struggling to keep it under wraps as is - please don't blow it for us like they did with card counting. Already some casinos are forbidding you to set the dice before you throw, and others complain if you don't toss hard enough.)
In actual practice, people don't actually have this superpower. It's theoretically possible, just like it's theoretically possible to take one look at a roulette wheel when it's already spinning and the ball is already in motion but before they say "no more bets" to tell with high certainty where it will go, but in actual practice, no human alive can actually do it.
@@blackjackapprenticeshipgus6559 - Yeah, I used to sneak a peek at the bottom card when the Baccarat shoe was cut and the dealer was counting out the 14 cards that get separated by the plastic cut-card, but they put a stop to that. I think word spread. It only gives somebody an edge on one hand out of an 80 hand shoe, but it's something.
@@biggawinnacrapsa3870 hardly an advantage as you don't know which side that card is going to and even if you did you wouldn't know what the other cards are with it.
Well it's like the stock market and they speculators rig the market and casinos rig games against people and I'm glad you guys have taken back from casinos
It’s a bad/stupid habit that’s makes absolutely no sense I know but I ALWAYS leave the table when I’m up (a certain amount) and then go to a new table and leave there when I’m up but if I stayed at the same table I could get more play time and probably bring in more money. Are there any tips to help break this habit? It would be very very very much appreciated. I know I’m doing wrong I just don’t know how to stop it.
Most annoying thing is "playing by the book is best" cause nooooo lol that book always screws me so I I've always just done what I want and I win more that way and I love seeing all the sweaty players shut up when my stack gets bigger than theirs 😂
Myth 7 - I once caught a dealer at a small indian casino dealing off the bottom. It was a very shady place. My last time ever setting foot in a non-NGC regulated casino.
totally agree! especially the one about predicting the "flow of the cards or dice". i know so many that think they can identify "what the dice are telling them" and bet accordingly
If past play could affect or indicate future results, casinos wouldn't put up that sign next to the roulette table telling you what the previous spins are. In fact, they know people WILL use it for that purpose--even though it is useless.
I liked how u explained every myth but there is one I don't agree with is quite while you are ahead myth.In my case I have been to casino around 16-17 times and I won almost 15 times made profit of atleast 70% and quite Only two times I lost was when I won and was in profit of atleast 70-80% and did not stop right there
I have a question for you or its more like an announcement where u play in America the dealer gets two cards one face up one face down where overhere in England the dealer gets his second card only after the last player makes his final decision so with that been said I don't think the basic strategy is as relevant here as it's in America. Also i would love to meet you ìn London so we can play I want to see how you do against our blackjack. I've been blamed for not taking a card when I'm on 15 (on the last sit) against a 10 for the dealer my logic here is that if I take a card and it's a low one for example 4 (not too bad for me "19" ) but after the picture card follow and the dealer gets a 20, for me it's better if I just leave it so the dealer busts ( it won't happen everytime obviously) or if u don't feel like meeting me please for all your fans do a session in england and tell us how you did!!! Love your videos thank you!!!
thank you for the positive feedback. I don't think Colin will be flying to England just to play blackjack so you can watch, though. Only possibility is if you cover his travel expenses?
Well hahah you are the guys making crazy money on blackjack not me. My biggest win was around 5k with 300 that I put into play from my pocket so thank you for your response but I will have to pass unfortunately ..... (would've been interesting watching you guys playing in London)
Nikolai Ivanov I am from Canada, and I have played at one Casino that deals the same way... (Century Casino in St. Albert, Alberta)... I was counting and had success using basic strategy and hit 17 deviations strategy, however; like yourself, I don’t know if it was just the way that one night went, or if the card counting was as the game changer...
Blackjack is not always high cards vs Lo cards... cards have a flow pattern.. a player that comes into a game or exits a game can change the flow of the cards... Shuffling a shoe does not always change the flow of the cards... shuffling a negative shoe... does not necessarily turn it into a positive shoe... just like the coin toss... on heads the next toss is not going to be necessarily on tails!
How do I get a computer simulation program? I'd like to test a couple things over thode 200 hours you talk about vs the couple hours a night i spend trying
I agree that casinos would never cheat players for the reasons you gave. I am not so sure about cruise ship casinos since they are essentially unregulated. In short, they can get away with it.
By no means am I as qualified as you all to address these fallacies. I do agree with everything said. However, I wish you would have empathized the most likley correlation between many of the fallacies and the count. An example would be when people think they are riding a winning streak they are almost always unwittingly riding a high count. Please do not get me wrong by no means do I support any of the fallacies mentioned. I am just trying to bring further insight into why they exist in the first place.
A dealer once told me that people think they win because of their brilliant play but when they lose it's the dealers fault!
So true!
As an ex-craps dealer I can say that dealers are not immune to the crazy thought processes that some players have.
There are plenty of dealers who are addicted to gambling.
They live near, and work in a casino, just to feed their addiction.
@@mikewhite735 true..i have personally witness half dozen dealers playing at a DIFFERENT casino from where they work playing at the blackjack tables and losing soo very badly...Making numerous trips to the ATM for more money..On the flip, there are blackjack dealers in my casino that are reformed gamblers and havent placed a bet or worked a slot in years..Beware those types as they usually arent pulling for u to win..
What about when the dealers take credit when you get dealt winning hands
I tell my gambleholic friend all the time. The dealer has no bearing on wether you win or loose. He\she just pulls the cards from the shoe. He plays baccarat.
The flow of the cards ain't got nothing on the *heart of the cards*
If gambling was yugioh my salmangreat deck would win everytime
@@liamdoes8580 If gambling is not yugioh then why do the worse players win all the time lol
Free World you need to reassess your life, no need for your poor class language here sir. You lose stature.
It’s time to duel !
YAS BYTCH!
Ya Move
Quitting while you're ahead is the second best advice for gambling.
The best is ofcource not to play.
Yes indeed
Only if that’s going to be your last day otherwise you will loose tomorrow
I wish I followed the first piece of advice when I was up $400 from $200 lol
There is one fool-proof system not based at all on math or simulations. I believe they discussed it on this documentary program I watched:
Bart: Dad, if you take me to Vegas, I'll teach you how to cheat at blackjack.
Homer: Boy, you don't need to cheat when you got a system.
Bart: What's your system?
Homer: I don't tell your mother how much I've lost.
ha, hmm.
The irony there being that Marge is actually the one who has a gambling problem.
I’m the guy in the comments that’s never lost. Because I’ve also never played lol. Good luck out there guys!
Thank u
I don't know why I watch these videos because I've never been to a Casino in my 33 yrs of life and probably never will. Lol
And you're reading because???
If you're a casual player, you should definitely quit while you're ahead.
If you're counting you should quit when the count is below 1
Thank you for this comment.
If you're a casual player, you should expect to lose or don't play at all
I love the explanation at Wizard of Odds. "When should I stop playing?"
"When you stop having fun"
1) Playing a streak ... press those bets. 2) Betting when you think you are due to win. 3) Leaving when you're up. 4) Predicting the flow of the cards. 5) Believing other plays can screw up the cards. 6) Thinking there is a way to ALWAYS win. 7) Blaming the casino for cheating you. 9) Using a progressive betting systems. 8) Believing the dealer is "lucky." 10) Any strategy that is not based on math or computer simulation, don't use it.
About the "quit while you're ahead" myth .. I'd think that really depends on what you're at the casino to do. If by ahead you mean "I made a rough estimate of how much I realistically expected to win tonight and I've made decently more than that", then I don't see why not getting up while you're ahead would be unwise?
Because all actions are independent so you can keep winning. In the long term you're going to make more money the longer you correctly count and play. If you're ahead and decide to leave then the only come out on top if you never bet your money again.
@@bradleygamble4866 But they're talking about gambling myths, not card counting. If you go to a casino to gamble and win big, it's better to quit qhile you're ahead if you don't plan on gambling year in year out. In the long run, you will lose. So to take advantage of the high variance throwing you onto a big win is perfectly legitimate, if you don't plan on playing again.
Not only that but setting yourself realistic targets and realistic acceptable losses is a safer way to gamble. It stops you the human from going on tilt or getting sucked into irrational thinking. If you're immune to that then you don't need to and good for you. Personally I'm a very rational math based person but if I'm losing big the temptation to chase the losses is real and that's when I make bad decisions that leads to bigger losses. The need for that strategy is not math based but to address flaws in the human psyche.
The first one is spot on.....
Rolling a 10 before a 7 is 2-1.
If you roll 1000 10’s in a row, what are the odds of a 10 coming next roll??? Anyone? It’s 2-1 against.
You aren’t on a winning streak, you were on a winning streak.
Vincent Winkleblech Be careful with your wording. The odds of a 10 coming next roll is 11:1 against. What you meant is the odds of a point of 10 being rerolled before a 7 is 2:1 against. However if a 10 has rolled 1000 the times in a row, you need to question if the dice are unbiased.
your confusing odds with probability . The odds of a 10 coming next vs a 7 is 1:2 ...but the probability of it coming 1001 time grows exponentially with every roll. so can it come ….yes is it probable...no!!!
Nope. If you roll 1,000 10s in a row clearly the dice are rigged. The oddds therefore are 100% you roll another 10
I gotta say that I disagree with leaving when you're up being a myth. The Casino always has the advantage, so if you were lucky enough to be up a significant amount, logic and odds dictate that you are better off leaving while you're up as the chances of losing is higher than it is for winning.
I have come back three times but only to break even. I done some rare things at the casino and what I call milestones. So yeah I see what it means; don't push your luck or don't over work yourself.
Well yeah, but this only works if you go into a casino for the first time in your life, get lucky and win a big hand/big slot machine pull, and then you leave and never play in a casino again. I think what the video was getting at is it's not a viable strategy to go into a casino, win, leave while you're up, and then go to a casino again with the same strategy of "leaving while you're ahead" because it won't work out in the long term.
@@royjonzejr Lol well it works if you do end up being up. If you lose it all then well ya can't exactly walk away up now can ya? But if you DO happen to be up by a decent amount then it's best to stop at that point. If ya do that each time you're up well then you walk away with money instead if giving your winnings right back to the house.
It's worked for me plenty of times in slots for sure. Whenever I hit & end up with over what I put in, I cash out. Same with Blackjack. If I've been playing for several hours & end up w a 50% gain or so, or if I happen to get ballsy & put a lot down on a single hand & win it, then I'll walk away for the night right after that hand.
I usually stay consistent w my bets in Blackjack, but there was one time when it was the last hand of the night & I decided to bet $200 on my last hand. Doubled down on the hand & won. Walked away right then & there. Lol one of the dudes @ the table was like you are dog ass lucky! & I was like yeah I ain't complainin', Night.
@@skins4thewin You still don't understand their point. Their point is gambling at blackjack is not a series of independant sessions where your luck gets reset each time you "quit". Think of your casino experience as a a single blackjack game. You have never truly left the blackjack table. You're still playing the same game. And you quitting while you're ahead is just you on a win streak. If you keep playing, you will eventually start losing, and the more you keep playing, the more this will trend towards you losing more than winning. Doesn't matter when you decide to leave the table. If you aren't card-counting, you will lose in the long run.
The only time "quitting while you're ahead" works is if you decide to quit blackjack forever when you're up in your lifetime games. This is perfectly possible in the short term. You just take advantage of the variance swinging in your favour. But you then need to never play again.
Agreed. Also, there also a couple other caveats. 1. The positive cash flow benefit of having money now and losing it later versus losing it now. 2. The ability to find a better game or improve betting strategy after that winning session, or to make the decision to never play again.
I'd love to hear a list like this for APs! Such as stuff like "Index plays don't matter" or "you don't need a bankroll of $5000 or more to be an AP" and stuff like that.
Technically you don't need a bankroll of 5000 dollars or more, but you start to play a more and more dangerous game the less you start with, and if you DO get down really low, you really have to quit if you're under about 300, because you don't have the money to make a larger bet and if you do, you won't have the money to split it multiple times.
There's a reason why myth #2 is literally called The Gambler's Fallacy ;)
As to myth #4, one of my coworkers who predominantly deals Baccarat says that whoever invented the board that tracks hand outcomes in a shoe, that person is an absolute genius. And he's totally right. It makes the players feel like they're in control and can predict the next hand's outcome if they can find the pattern. We have those on our Roulette tables as well, and it's entertaining (and a bit sad) to see the players staring intently at those boards, jotting down notes and trying to decode the mysteries of statistics and variance
I'm an ex-dealer It is easy to win on a 'honest' roulette.
All roulettes in the world are rigged..!
On a onnline casino i saw a roulette with a min. 50 cent and 500 euro maximum.
If it is a 'honest roulette' i will win always..100 procent!
Curious how Blackjack seems to be the only table game where it's against the rules to keep track of which cards came out.
Only if you're winning lol
Impossible. Roulette has a 5.26% house advantage. You cannot win long term by design.
I think of gambling as expensive entertainment. I like the chance.....
Learn to play perfect basic strategy or get really good at video poker and its not even that expensive of entertainment in the long run.
Spencer Shortwave bahahaha
If you low bet, Spencer’s right about learning perfect basic strategy anyway... I wouldn’t trust video poker, but knowing perfect basic strategy, though will leave you in a negative EV, will not be so bad. Still have to bare in mind, it’s a matter of independent events... you still need to be prepared for some nights where the game can and will kick the crap out of your bank account
jason colbourne I was playing 25 dollars a hand like 10 hands wasent winning shit lost over 300 dollars kept busting all the time still up like 300 dollars but lost 300 in casino profits
It is
In the game of blackjack you will always have more losing hands then winning hands... because the player has to play his hand before the dealer plays his hand!
Imagine if it were the opposite? Dealer makes his/her hand first and then the gamblers go second.
Yep
That's the advantage in poker.... Position
Stumbled on this channel a few weeks ago.. cracking videos guys
The biggest myth is that you can be all loosey goosey at table, eating a sandwich and win
yeah..typically they won't let you eat at the table.
@@blackjackapprenticeshipgus6559 At my casino, they do allow high-limit players to eat at the table, but not the tables on the main floor
Daniel Negraneau Masterclass Ad😂
You haven't lived until you've had one of those little sandwiches at a table in Monaco!
“Quit while you’re ahead” works if you’re doing only one session. For an evening at a casino, leaving while you have a profit is worth it.
yeah, dave attell can attest to that. look up dave attell gambling story :)
2:00 is classic
It's hard to put into words, but people get "The law of averages" mixed up with "The law of large numbers" all the time.
The law of large numbers states that the larger the sample, the more likely that the equity of the events would be accurately realized. Example, flipping a coin 10 times vs 10,000 times would generate different experimental results, and the 10k sample would be more reliable and accurate, because of the sample
The "law of averages" states that the equity of a situation will be realized in the long run, so if in the short run things are going one way, it's bound to turn around.
These differences are not semantics, one is gambler`s fallacy, one is an equity estimate of probability and expected value
Very well said
For an actual gambler (not a card counter), there IS a good reason for quitting while you're ahead. The positive emotional effects that it has on the person are very beneficial for their mental health. Similarly, quitting while you're slightly behind over many sessions is better emotionally than losing a s---load in one long session. Please bear in mind that I'm talking about gamblers. For a card counter, I understand that the math over time dictates that you WILL come out ahead because you have a slight edge over the house so you need to keep playing as much as possible and get your hours in.
There is no good reason for quitting while ahead, because there is no good reason for someone to gamble.
@@tortuga3402 Why are you here then, watching a video like this? I wouldn't go to a video for people with gambling problems and post "You should play!! You should gamble! Just quit while you're ahead!" My point is, if you're going to gamble (and this is a gambling-related video), then I think it's better to quit while you're ahead if you can.
@@ChristmasEve777 Look at the other videos on this channel, not even they are encouraging gambling. This channel is dedicated to advantage players, not gamblers. Advantage players still fall victim to fallacies and poor judgement when starting out, so gambling myths often apply to beginner APs.
@@tortuga3402 Yeah, 2+ years ago, I watched a ton of his videos... all about gambling. This was a very appropriate place to say "quit while you're ahead". Now buzz off and stop trolling! You're making no sense whatsoever!
Fair question: Why can't it be "Quit while you're ahead and continue tomorrow freshened up" Which will be the same as continue right now, with the upgrade of renewed enthusiasm for the winning experience and cool head, provided you have finished the round (shoe)
Great video! I already knew about those myths but I really liked how you explained why they're false.
Thanks Poo! 😜
Firm believer that if you take a #2 in the casino before you hit the tables, you'll come out ahead. Hasn't failed me yet!
Already shidded on em then come out smellin like round 2 😂
My grandpa once told me that the easiest way to double your money is to fold it over once, and put it back in your pocket. I mean, it never stopped me from gambling, but it's still a cool sort of grandfathery saying.
Dude was talking about me, I win everytime 😂
Leaving when you are up is actually optimal because leaving is always optimal (assuming you are not playing a game where expected value can sometimes go positive).
Leaving when you are up is a winning strategy...if you never play again for the rest of your life. If you play regularly then it is just one data point among hundreds or thousands.
@@Veaseify Playing regularly is a losing strategy. You proved nothing.
@@garyzhang4306 I wasn't trying to 'prove' anything, just pointing out that quit while you are ahead is a meaningless concept to anybody that gambles a lot in negative expectation games. Peace.
So if you are up after one hand you should quit because you are ahead?!? Makes zero sense
I usually leave when I'm a couple of hundred bucks either way--up or down. Not because it affects the odds of winning future hands--it doesn't. But after a couple of hundred bucks either way, it starts to feel like real money and I begin caring about the outcome. At that point it isn't fun. So, I'm usually good for about 30-60 minutes of play before I'm done.
I’ve played 1 hand at blackjack, and I won, so therefore I am the blackjack player who always wins.
Is it advantageous to ask the dealer to shuffle the deck when the true count is really deep in the negatives? Or would it be better to continue playing and hope the count goes back up?
Yeah, it's definitely advantageous. But it might be a tip-off to the pit that you're counting. I've done it lots of times, but be cautious about how often you ask.
I get so much heat from other players that get so pissed if I sit out or add a second hand when I am supposed to.
I like how Mike Aponte once said told me. "Don't worry until the pit boss likes and notices you winning. Then you have a problem."
Unfortunately, this doesn't happen very often. 😭🤦♂️
Y’all are amazing. Keep up the hard work, it’s appreciated
cards don’t have memory but the player does. So from a psychological point of view leaving while having a positive result.... is always great for setting the table for your next session.
My advice is different. I double down my base bet when Im up. Then If I lose some, I leave when Im still up. If I win some, I keep going and maybe try to x4 my bet then. This is how you build up to some crazy streak all while looking like a basic degenerate
Would it be easier to just count the "10s" in the shoe? There are 96 "10s" in a 6 deck shoe so if you keep track of how many have already been used then couldn't you use that in the same way as the normal counting?
Only if you count the number of non 10s that come out as well
The flow of the cards can be real. Some people can keep track of how many low cards vs High cards have been played. They are basically counting cards without actually counting.
One time I sat down at a blackjack table with other 3 players who were already seated. The first round I got a soft 18 against the dealer's 10. Basic strategy says to hit soft 18 against a 10. So I hit it and I got a 7 so it became a hard 15, and then I hit it again and I bust. The dealer and the players at the table looked at me like I am an idiot. . One of players at the table told me that 18 is good enough so there's no need to hit. I told him that soft 18 will rarely win against a 9 through ACE if you follow math, so it's better to hit and improve my hand. Then he said that oh w.e I am just new to the game and that i don't know how to play. And what's most depressing thing is that everyone at the table was on his side telling me that I should listen to him. I wonder if any of those players actually studied basic strategy before they came to the casino to play live blackjack. After many many rounds I realized that those players didn't really follow basic strategy. I saw someone double a 9 against a 9, asking for even $, not splitting 8s against a 10, and chasing their loses etc... They just played the game using their own strategy and completely abandon Basic Strategy. And then later they left the table cuz they were pissed that they lost so much $.
LMAO I love when people try to tell me how to play...then they lose like 8 hands in a row. That's when I say "it's all random dude, just follow basic strats, if anything just to have an organized way of playing."
Silver Yoshi It happened to me numerous times. Whenever I hit a soft 18 or double my soft 18 people always get mad at me. They think that soft 18 is a very good hand but in reality it is not.
My most memorable similar story was, it was me and some Asian woman at the table. You know the kind, the kind that only speaks broken English and you wonder if she's actually legally in the US. Anyhoo so one hand, the dealer showed a 3 and I got a soft 18. And I doubled down. And she was APPALLED that I would do such a thing and tried to talk me out of it as I was doing it. APPALLED! And then the dealer deals me a 3, and she's shocked and annoyed that I was evidently dumb and lucky and that it would work out for me despite doing something so stupid.... until the dealer also got a 21, and would have busted if I had stood on the soft 18 and let the dealer have the 3. And she's screaming at me "NEXT TIME YOU LISTEN TO ME!" Spoiler alert, I never listened to her. Ha ha. I'll tell you one thing, I was glad I caused her to lose her money, because I was like her in one way, I was feeling satisfied to see a fool parted from her money, she was merely wrong about which one of us was a fool.
@@medexamtoolscom The problem with some players is that they don't follow 100 percent basic strategy. In the worst-case scenario they will act like they know 100 percent basic strategy but in reality they only know like 70 to 80 percent of it. They memorized the very obvious ones like standing 12-16 against a 4-6, splitting Aces, and double a 11 against 2-6. But when it comes to the complicated ones are like soft 18 against a 9-Ace, doubling on soft 18 against 3-6, splitting 9s against a 9, splitting 8s against a 10, and etc.. They would just guess or pretend that they know how to play those hands.
I never play blackjack. Too many idiots and you are NOT going to win. Craps. That's it. Way more fun and you are all playing against the house. Whoop it up and enjoy. We have ''blackjack'' at our company party every Christmas. I bust out every single time.
My favorite is #1 "the heater or winning streak" I like getting that advice while the true count is dropping below -2. I'm waiting to lose a hand or two so I can bounce off the negative shoe to another table. All while getting unsolicited advice to push my bets One time I disappeared from a table with a true count of -6. A few minutes later I hear one of the casino regulars scream "This freaking game the only way you win is to play freaking stupid!"
Yep. That painful winning streak during a negative count and the dealer keeps mentioning how much you would have made if you'd pressed your bets like they told you!
I got a question guys what does it mean when you lose on positive tc3 and 4
Adam Patterson it means even when you have a 55% chance of winning, you still have a 45% chance of losing.
The count goes up and I’m on a winning streak:
“I’m winning so I better bet more now!”
The count goes up and I’m on a losing streak:
“I need to bet more in order to make up for my losing streak!”
The count goes down and I’m on a winning streak:
“I need to lower by bet so I don’t risk all the money I just got!”
The count goes down and I’m on a losing streak:
“I’m losing so I better bet less now!”
I get backed off:
“I’m not counting cards, I just know how to predict the flow of the cards!”
I was a dealer in Vegas for 25 years. Thank you so much for bringing up number 5. Thank you, thank you, thank you! 😎
Lol. You're welcome.
like hitting on 12 against dealer 3. people lose their mind.
Quitting while you're ahead is probably the best myth for the losing gambler
1) losing players NEED an excuse to leave. This is a good one. Not playing at all is best, but playing for a small amount of time is next best.
2) Most gamblers feel good winning, and only play for the good feelers. Leaving when you're ahead protects you from bad feelers which comes from losing it back, and secures the good feelers that are rare. Also see loss aversion and prospect theory.
3) Taxes. Sometimes winning too much can cost you a lot of money. Quitting at 9.9k up is better than 80k (a smaller % of the time) because of taxes.
One nice thing about being Canadian is never being taxed on gambling winnings 😝 instead of capitalism where the casino wins and the players are further gouged when they have a little bit of success, the casinos are heavily taxed the way they should be!
I’m a dealer, I’ve tried to tell people about number 5. But gamblers love to blame others at the table 🤷🏻♂️
What Are Your Thoughts on A Auto Shuffler Machine That continues shuffling discarded cards...Is that good for Card Counting?? Or being Fair to Both Casinos and Players?
Its terrible. IT makes card counting IMPOSSIBLE. Thus, never play at a continuous shuffle unless you're just there to gamble money away
there is one way to always win. Be the house
Except the house doesn't always win. Kerry Packer bankrupted the Aspinalls Club in London when he won too much.
don't be the gambler be the casino.
Heart of the cards, guide us...
myth #3 is wrong. "Leaving when you are up" actually has psychological reasons behind it which is good to do so and is proven in science. Everything is not just math as we are human beings and have feelings.
In any particular session I always have an amount that that I will walk away from if I lose and amount I will walk away with when I've won. I also put a time limit of +/- 45 minutes of play.
I will typically watch a table to see how the cards are running and when I feel the count is my favor I will sit down (I prefer 2nd base), typically playing $25 to $500 a hand. I've had many more up days than down days but my down days are capped. I am very disciplined and never deviate from this strategy.
I’m really interested in the math behind ‘messing up the flow of the cards’ from a card counter perspective. Reason being that when the count is really high, there’s not an ‘equal chance’ that the card distribution would’ve been different had they hit or not. I’m sure when the deck is large, say 6 or 8 shoe this isn’t as important, but def would be interesting to see the math behind it
There's a small timer lockbox called the kitchen safe that you can stash large winnings hiding it away in your vehicle or hotel room.
I'm the guy in the comments that's only lost once. It was the first time I played, never go all in after you 1000x your bankroll. Never go all in, in general. I've only played 5-10 times total, though lol. Disadvantaged player, learning to count. I have a strategy, progression betting. I don't know the math for it and honestly I don't feel like everything has been accounted for if you say that counting is the only method of advantage play. That sounds more like good marketing for your website.
I play perfect basic strategy while using 5% of my bankroll as a base bid, I leave when I gain 50% of that bankroll plus a 5% tip. This generally takes 15-20 minutes. The total bankroll doesn't change from game to game. If I'm on a losing streak, after every two hands lost, I double my bet to 10% of my bankroll since there's a lower probability that I'll lose again. If I'm losing money quickly, I play two hands to stabilize my losses while I'm waiting out a winning streak. If I start losing money faster, I return to single hand plays. I always bet 5% when I'm on a winning streak. I feel like some counting can be done intuitively and effectively if you're minimizing your bets and have a moderately high IQ due to patter recognition. For example: doubling down on 12 when you know a lot of 10/A &
But what about someone on 3rd base taking a card. Say they get a 10 and that could’ve been the dealers bust card.... that does in fact effect the whole table ??
and he could just as easily take a 5 clearing the way for the dealer to get the ten and busting
So when do you quit? When the shoe is over or when you get to a certain limit?
When they lose they blame other players..99% of the time.
I can think of a very good reason to leave when you're "up". Before you started, if you promised yourself you'd leave when you are up, you should leave when you are up. Same as drinking. If you promise yourself you'll leave the bar after 3 drinks, you had better leave the bar after 3 drinks. If you don't, this might be an indication you have a problem. You can't trust yourself. It's hard enough to outsmart the Casino without having to outsmart yourself at the same time.
Great video. Confirmed and learned new stuff. Thanks.
Saving up for a trip to Las Vegas and taking your course.
I think you can get more of an advantage when playing with bad players. If they double for less and let you fill in the gap you can get part of there profitable doubles.
Yeah, if you trust them to pay you. 🤣
I love doing this. To reduce the risk of not getting paid I say to them “Can I put up the rest of the money for your double? Just to be clear, I’m investing in your hand. I expect my money back and the profit if it wins.” Sure there’s always a small chance they won’t pay and there’s nothing you can do then, but I haven’t ever had that experience. Find a player who always lets you invest in their good hands and you’ve got a situation that’s way more profitable than regular counting!
I’ve done this too, and I have since stopped doing so. I find that most people are honest enough to give you your share back however; I’ve done this at tables and had people give me wrong amounts back (which in most cases I’ve interpreted as bad math or intoxication). I’m too non confrontational to tell anyone besides the dealer if they screw up on a pay out.
This helps me alot! I shall implement these more as I make more regular visits to casinos and try out card counting. Baccarat is fun but I would like to get good at blackjack!
The house edge is phenomenal
I follow the third myth, but that's only cuz at the moment I'm treating blackjack more like a profitable hobby than anything else. I have a system where I color up and ask for a comp after losing twice. I'll typically buy in for about 10 hands at the minimum ($150, since my house's minimum is $15). The third myth is probably the least bad of all these, but it requires discipline and lots of it. It's also compatible with other games too not just blackjack.
@@Pokeball01 - You need to come to the del Lago in upstate NY. They'll lay free buffets on you left and right for $15 action. Bump it up a little and you've got free rooms, Sunday - Thursday. No swimming pool, though.
Me too, and it DOES have benefits. It isn't just purely irrational to do so. 1: It means you'll have positive days a much higher fraction of the time. I have 102 good memories and 12 bad ones instead of perhaps 60 against 42, because I quit when I reach a certain goal and keep going when I go far in the red. And winning 2000 dollars doesn't give you 20 times the pleasure of winning 100. Is it so irrational to value that? And the best memories of them all ARE the yo-yo days, when I ended a LITTLE ahead to end with HARD earned money; how epic a memory is it, to get down 1450 dollars and get it all back and end the day 19 dollars ahead, while on another day, if I hadn't quit at +200 on one of those days that I gained, little do I know which ones, but maybe it would have been +1500 instead, or maybe it would have been -1500, or even worse, for me to have gained 1500 and then lost it all and more. I don't want my head filled with memories like that, and I think it has VALUE to take measures to prevent it, i.e. to quit when ahead by a certain goal. And 2: Also, I would have probably been banned from every casino within 200 miles 5 times over if I had kept going after winning a lot and played for hours and hours and hours on all 114 of those days, I wouldn't have been able to go back to the SAME casino 30 times in a row over a period of 10 months, they'd have discovered and banned me long before that. I would have run out of nearby casinos to go to and I still wouldn't have been up 5000 instead of 1400 (where I stand today), because I'd have been kicked out after playing for 1/3 as much total time, instead of day after day, being welcome the next day. It's good cover, it makes you look like a superstitious idiot, and that's what you want them to think you are.
@@medexamtoolscom - 102 + 12 = 114. 60 + 42 = Better work on that counting, son, or they'll CLEAN YOU OUT!!
"You're gonna have to get used to losing." I'm way ahead of you there.
Btw. matemathicly sound system is progressive betting for rulet, but only on theoreticle level.
You can bet every time when you lose double the amount to red. When you finally win (which can teoreticly never happen, but it is really unlikely), than you win you first bet.
But it imply unlimited time, and unlimited bet size, which unfortunatelly is not possible in real life :-(
I keep telling people, don't look at patterns just play and gamble. Casino want players to think there's a pattern because they are inclined to lose more, like with Baccarat or the gamble feature on slots, it convinces people to do mixed bets which makes you lose more.
Most of the games now use a shuffler after every hand...so...where once you could hang out w a 6 deck shue and work deep into the deck until they shuffle, they now just shuffle
I love it, this is truth serum at its finest. The prideful and ignorant will reject these facts. Great video!
I went to a casino for the first time. Left when I was up $52.50, and haven't been back since then. Though the casinos in my state are out of the way and hard for me to get to, so I'll rarely, if ever, go back.
Regarding the "flow of the deck" that's obviously bs, but is there a way to just observe the 10's vs low cards that were played- without actually counting, and get a 'feel' for when the count is in your favor? Kind of like a hack to counting
Today was my first time playing at a cassino, the game was blackjack and dam I won 8 hands In a roll never been so happy, the adrenaline lol and then I left before lose 😁
If card counting works, surely 'I lost therefore I'm going to win'/'I won therefore I'm going to lose' also works? I guess it's not enough to gain the edge, but it stops being a complete fallacy: chances are the count is higher if you were losing, and lower if you were winning
Quitting while ahead is not necessarily good advice. I've watched people on losing streaks chase their money all night long then as soon as they get a little win streak they get nervous and cash out. They say they're quitting while ahead but they're walking away from a decent run while staying to play when losing. They should do the exact opposite.
There is no such thing as a decent run except in hindsight. That is not actionable information.
@@eane7238.. Anyone that knows anything about cards and percentages knows that they do run in streaks. The longer deal with them the truer they became. You never leave the table when riding a wave or even if just grinding it out back & forth. You leave when cards are running cold and you're losing. Ya don't chase it. So yea, I'm giving good advice. Don't know what you're guving.
@@mikewhitney2147 prove it with math, mike.
@@eane7238.. You're seriously telling me to prove it with math. Lol.. stop being a clown man. I don't have to prove anything to you. Especially basic common knowledge mathematical facts about tue percentages. - Just shhhh....
@@mikewhitney2147 grown man resorting to insults after being challenged intellectually, your parents would be ashamed, Mike. The guy in the video who is much more successful and smarter than yourself has made videos on this topic, you're seeing patterns that aren't there, typical case of the gamblers fallacy. there is no "wave" to ride, flow or pattern to play, you're just a typical gambler that casinos rely on, just smart enough to think you figured something out but not smart enough to recognize that you're making up stuff that doesn't work and can't be mathematically proven.
1. I wong into a BJ game or play heads up double deck (60% pen or better using Hi-Lo and double count)
2. I take maybe a $100 of my winnings to craps and play the Wizard of Odds strategy (pass, dont pass line with max odds- $5 or $10 tables)
3. I go to poker room and join a $1/2 or $2/4 table, play tight-aggressive and murder the fish
I am a part time recreational AP with a fulltime job and other hobbies so I dont really care how long I last and I use player cards because I make big bets and its foolish for me to pass up on those perks!! I was trained by one of the best that no one has heard of and I'ma ride this wave until I can't no more. 2 years in and no heat in site. I might do this professionally for a couple years and use the money to open a business because I'd rather be my own boss.
I played baccarat once online evolution gaming. i started with $1 on player because it has won 3 times in a row, so i rode the streak and it proceeded to win 14 times in a row in total, each time i won i doubled it. At the 10th win i thought it was too risky so at $512 i betted $50 and lost, the streak broke. So i cashed out the $462 and never played baccarat again
But, by your own admission, every hand of blackjack is NOT an independent event. Regardless of the shoe size, every hand of blackjack is dependent on the prior hands in that shoe (except for the first hand, obviously). The only time every hand of blackjack would be independent is when the shoe is shuffled after every hand.
Correct, this is why card-counting works. You didn't disprove anything.
I live near a casino that does all these shady tricks and for some reason, nobody notices what their doing? They slam the shoe on the table. They tell you , they do it to get the next card out of the shoe easier! Lmao! If that was the case, they're admitting the shoes they buy are shit. They slam the shoe when they want to notify the pitboss of something. I know at the casino I play at this is true. Not all the dealers do it. I've observed only the more proficient dealers do this. More trusted dealers to the casino. There may be other reasons they do it but not at this place. Also, whenever I get a good shoe, they change dealers and cut the deck. That changes the whole order of the shoe. This may be obvious to some but so many people don't see this shit. I've observed many tricks they pull to gain more edge.
Colin if a casino offered you a job for the right amount of money in some sort of extremely high level AP countermeasures position would you consider taking it ?
Hell yes he would. Rule #1. Everything is for sale.
I think Phil Ivey can say the casinos cheated him.
He can say it but he lost in court. Let me put it this way: If Phil Ivey had taken me as a partner instead of that Chinese lady, he would still be kicking ass and nobody would be the wiser. (and I would be set for life, lol)
I would say the casino angle shot him. If he had lost at the table, he wouldn’t have gone to court. If he wins the casino gets the court to both nullify, and impose the casinos expected win.
Seems the casino by agreeing to the terms was effectively and possibly knowingly in a no lose situation.
@@biggawinnacrapsa3870 The chinese lady was the skilled one that could edge sort. Do you have that skill?
quit forever is the best advice ..... we have a saying here in Greece ..... if you drink you will loose .... if you Gamble you will loose
When do you leave the table? This is a question for #3.
The problem for me is the casino has deep pockets! If I go down $600-$700 I have to stop which messes with the percentages!
10 different ways to say: every game is an independent trial.
I'd rather leave when I am up than chance losing it all if I keep playing. Even though the odds don't change whether I keep playing or not, the house still has the edge.
But that only works if you quit forever and never come back. The next time you play there's an equal chance variance will go against you in the opposite direction
The average joker plays till 1k. or more...but often play till they are tired or hungry.
This is all great to hear, but unfortunately the vast majority of people do not have the capital to be a card counter/advantage player. A strategy I like to use is just to press my bets by 1 unit after a win and keep doing this until a loss. I know I can not beat the casino doing this but the times i win i win big.
I think besides card counting - someone who is realy good at dice control is the only thing that gives an edge
You're going to light a fire with that comment. (we're struggling to keep it under wraps as is - please don't blow it for us like they did with card counting. Already some casinos are forbidding you to set the dice before you throw, and others complain if you don't toss hard enough.)
In actual practice, people don't actually have this superpower. It's theoretically possible, just like it's theoretically possible to take one look at a roulette wheel when it's already spinning and the ball is already in motion but before they say "no more bets" to tell with high certainty where it will go, but in actual practice, no human alive can actually do it.
plenty of other advantage plays in casinos besides card counting. you just have to keep your eyes peeled. check out wizardofodds.com
@@blackjackapprenticeshipgus6559 - Yeah, I used to sneak a peek at the bottom card when the Baccarat shoe was cut and the dealer was counting out the 14 cards that get separated by the plastic cut-card, but they put a stop to that. I think word spread. It only gives somebody an edge on one hand out of an 80 hand shoe, but it's something.
@@biggawinnacrapsa3870 hardly an advantage as you don't know which side that card is going to and even if you did you wouldn't know what the other cards are with it.
Well it's like the stock market and they speculators rig the market and casinos rig games against people and I'm glad you guys have taken back from casinos
It’s a bad/stupid habit that’s makes absolutely no sense I know but I ALWAYS leave the table when I’m up (a certain amount) and then go to a new table and leave there when I’m up but if I stayed at the same table I could get more play time and probably bring in more money. Are there any tips to help break this habit? It would be very very very much appreciated. I know I’m doing wrong I just don’t know how to stop it.
Most annoying thing is "playing by the book is best" cause nooooo lol that book always screws me so I I've always just done what I want and I win more that way and I love seeing all the sweaty players shut up when my stack gets bigger than theirs 😂
Myth 7 - I once caught a dealer at a small indian casino dealing off the bottom. It was a very shady place. My last time ever setting foot in a non-NGC regulated casino.
Many of these apply to my fave game-Craps as well!
totally agree! especially the one about predicting the "flow of the cards or dice". i know so many that think they can identify "what the dice are telling them" and bet accordingly
You love that b roll shot with the cash
Great video!
Thanks!
When you win a lot of money at the casino. Doesn't the casino ask you to feel out a tax form. Then find out your name.
I'm cracking up. That bear ate that person so don't go close to bears. So true
If past play could affect or indicate future results, casinos wouldn't put up that sign next to the roulette table telling you what the previous spins are. In fact, they know people WILL use it for that purpose--even though it is useless.
I liked how u explained every myth but there is one I don't agree with is quite while you are ahead myth.In my case I have been to casino around 16-17 times and I won almost 15 times made profit of atleast 70% and quite Only two times I lost was when I won and was in profit of atleast 70-80% and did not stop right there
I have a question for you or its more like an announcement where u play in America the dealer gets two cards one face up one face down where overhere in England the dealer gets his second card only after the last player makes his final decision so with that been said I don't think the basic strategy is as relevant here as it's in America. Also i would love to meet you ìn London so we can play I want to see how you do against our blackjack. I've been blamed for not taking a card when I'm on 15 (on the last sit) against a 10 for the dealer my logic here is that if I take a card and it's a low one for example 4 (not too bad for me "19" ) but after the picture card follow and the dealer gets a 20, for me it's better if I just leave it so the dealer busts ( it won't happen everytime obviously) or if u don't feel like meeting me please for all your fans do a session in england and tell us how you did!!!
Love your videos thank you!!!
thank you for the positive feedback. I don't think Colin will be flying to England just to play blackjack so you can watch, though. Only possibility is if you cover his travel expenses?
Well hahah you are the guys making crazy money on blackjack not me. My biggest win was around 5k with 300 that I put into play from my pocket so thank you for your response but I will have to pass unfortunately ..... (would've been interesting watching you guys playing in London)
Nikolai Ivanov I am from Canada, and I have played at one Casino that deals the same way... (Century Casino in St. Albert, Alberta)... I was counting and had success using basic strategy and hit 17 deviations strategy, however; like yourself, I don’t know if it was just the way that one night went, or if the card counting was as the game changer...
Blackjack is not always high cards vs Lo cards... cards have a flow pattern.. a player that comes into a game or exits a game can change the flow of the cards... Shuffling a shoe does not always change the flow of the cards... shuffling a negative shoe... does not necessarily turn it into a positive shoe... just like the coin toss... on heads the next toss is not going to be necessarily on tails!
There is no flow. The math has been done and there is no proof of a flow.
I played once, won 100 bucks over the day, and never went back. Happy with that! 😂
How do I get a computer simulation program? I'd like to test a couple things over thode 200 hours you talk about vs the couple hours a night i spend trying
I agree that casinos would never cheat players for the reasons you gave. I am not so sure about cruise ship casinos since they are essentially unregulated. In short, they can get away with it.
By no means am I as qualified as you all to address these fallacies. I do agree with everything said. However, I wish you would have empathized the most likley correlation between many of the fallacies and the count. An example would be when people think they are riding a winning streak they are almost always unwittingly riding a high count. Please do not get me wrong by no means do I support any of the fallacies mentioned. I am just trying to bring further insight into why they exist in the first place.