Great video and sharing of your insights. My take is as follows: 1) Production is too high and until brands (in general) reduce production the problems will persist. Unfortunately, they are under pressure to grow and hit targets (so it is produce more watches, raise prices, and/or more precious metal watches). They have just done all three. 2) the vast majority of watches are not investments, so I agree depreciation is to be expected but rising prices only put more pressure on secondary market values and slowing demand when new collectors ‘discover’ their investment piece is worth 50 cents on the dollar, 3) when you factor in service costs / repair time… and most new collectors in the past 2-3 years have not yet experienced this pain… there is more carnage to follow. Brands have not factored in total ownership experience and collectors have factored in total cost of ownership. I also agree smaller brands like FPJ / RM will weather it a little better because its clients are more experienced and I would imagine better off than your typical Rolex, AP, VC collector. PP believes they are special but with production at 70k per annum… it’s just a delayed impact. It’s inevitable.
I’m with you on this. Prices are crazy. A year ago a Patek 5134 full set was $17k. Last month 3 were listed for $20k+ (USD). This is the second gen with the 6 and 9 (rest of the hour markers are stick). I think it’s the 2nd gen of the 5134. I never bought one last year because I figured we were at market peak. Tbh, I think the dealers just unlisted the $20k+ ones to give the impression of selling at that price.
Generally I feel that watch brands have taken advantage of the high demand situation to increase their MSRP so rapidly. They failed to realise that majority of the buyers in the past 4 years are flippers purely looking for profit. This has hurt real collectors and watch enthusiasts. Now that profits/prices has came crashing down from the peak, and is still falling, it no longer makes sense for consumers to “beg” ADs to spend hard earned money. At hindsight, the whole AD buying experience was largely negative and illogical. I was lucky to have met a good AD that I will continue to support. Taking reasonable loses from buying watches to enjoy is a healthy thing in the long run in my opinion.
Great analysis. I was at AP house HK yesterday. Haven’t been there in a while, but my SA straight up told me with new CEO they are under pressure to meet targets. Even with a little bit of purchase history (2 RO), I would need to buy 1159 or ROO before even being considered for a regular RO or chrono. They said business was not affected during the slump, and now targeting the elite class who can afford whatever watches they are required to purchase. Not sure what to think, maybe there are some truths to it.
@@watchesinsingapore Yeah I’ve seen similar comments from other regions. Not sure if HK still have a strong customer base so they don’t need to allocate to new customers, or maybe just want me to buy some of their less in demand pieces 😅
I wouldn't personally as I don't like the way it wears. But if you like it, I think it's ok to buy at retail. The difference between retail and market is pretty negligible for the blue 4520v
I never understood the stupid AD games with purchase history to get access to more desirable models. I buy a particular watch because I like the design/model and I don’t want to waste my time waiting and pleasing ADs. If they don’t want to sell me the watch I want, no problem, I will go grey market and if there is a premium to be paid, so what! By playing those AD games and having to buy stuff you really don’t want or need, you will lose way more money than paying that premium, and also not uninportant, no waiting for excessive periods of time. I have to say, being in watch collecting for 20 yrs+, I am still sad that the industry developed like this greedy, at some point in time they will get the ball thrown back when we have the next big economic crisis and watch sales will suffer more…
Hello from France, the VC boutique over here offered me the new retrograde overseas with like 4/5 months waiting time without any history… Another friend of mine got offered a blue dial overseas after 3 months without any purchase history either. VC surely is dying there
Indie retail price is going up because reseller is selling at 100 dollar after buying at 10 dollar. People are buying at 100 dollar to skip the queue and indie brand see this as opportunity to capitalise on it. AD/Grey dealer join in and the rest is self explanatory. For example, remember FPj once increase their retails over a very short period of time. Resonance was listed at 110K SGD in 2020 and now 260K SGD. Secondary transacted price was 400K. Why leave the meat on the table, take it while you can
I'm not sure about that. MB&F, De Bethune, Urwerk, and many others trade at large discounts to retail. There are few indies that go at premium nowadays, which adds to my concern for that space
In your opinion and experience, will automatic and quartz watches disappear and smart watches will rise, or will automatic watches remain stronger than smart watches and will remain and not disappear??????
The 2 are very much separate markets that are different in nature. It’s similar to comparing luxury supercars with electric cars. Both have their market and purpose, and can coexist
The whole industry has become overly greedy to the extent that it downgraded the image of the industry as a whole.
Great video! Totally agree.👏👏
Great video and sharing of your insights. My take is as follows: 1) Production is too high and until brands (in general) reduce production the problems will persist. Unfortunately, they are under pressure to grow and hit targets (so it is produce more watches, raise prices, and/or more precious metal watches). They have just done all three. 2) the vast majority of watches are not investments, so I agree depreciation is to be expected but rising prices only put more pressure on secondary market values and slowing demand when new collectors ‘discover’ their investment piece is worth 50 cents on the dollar, 3) when you factor in service costs / repair time… and most new collectors in the past 2-3 years have not yet experienced this pain… there is more carnage to follow. Brands have not factored in total ownership experience and collectors have factored in total cost of ownership. I also agree smaller brands like FPJ / RM will weather it a little better because its clients are more experienced and I would imagine better off than your typical Rolex, AP, VC collector. PP believes they are special but with production at 70k per annum… it’s just a delayed impact. It’s inevitable.
Nice analysis. The Patek topic is quite interesting and probably worth a video on its own
Thierry Stern is so creative, he designed this watch to look exactly like him, literally
I’m with you on this. Prices are crazy. A year ago a Patek 5134 full set was $17k. Last month 3 were listed for $20k+ (USD). This is the second gen with the 6 and 9 (rest of the hour markers are stick). I think it’s the 2nd gen of the 5134. I never bought one last year because I figured we were at market peak. Tbh, I think the dealers just unlisted the $20k+ ones to give the impression of selling at that price.
Grey market is quite different though, especially for older watches
ADs put you on "waitlists" for pieces that don't even sell at retail. It's ridiculous.
Truly a fun collecting experience!
Nice video. I think it would be much appreciated if you can add USD pricing (as a text) right next to the SIN $ pricing. Makes it easier understand
I'll keep it in mind, thanks for the suggestion!
Generally I feel that watch brands have taken advantage of the high demand situation to increase their MSRP so rapidly. They failed to realise that majority of the buyers in the past 4 years are flippers purely looking for profit. This has hurt real collectors and watch enthusiasts. Now that profits/prices has came crashing down from the peak, and is still falling, it no longer makes sense for consumers to “beg” ADs to spend hard earned money. At hindsight, the whole AD buying experience was largely negative and illogical. I was lucky to have met a good AD that I will continue to support. Taking reasonable loses from buying watches to enjoy is a healthy thing in the long run in my opinion.
Very thoughtful and insightful, especially the point made about independent prices. I appreciate the video.
Thanks for watching!
AMZWATCH Stunning watches stunning video you are special i love it keep it up
Great analysis. I was at AP house HK yesterday. Haven’t been there in a while, but my SA straight up told me with new CEO they are under pressure to meet targets. Even with a little bit of purchase history (2 RO), I would need to buy 1159 or ROO before even being considered for a regular RO or chrono. They said business was not affected during the slump, and now targeting the elite class who can afford whatever watches they are required to purchase. Not sure what to think, maybe there are some truths to it.
Interesting! Some AP customers here are getting steel Royal Oaks as their first watch since business is struggling
@@watchesinsingapore Yeah I’ve seen similar comments from other regions. Not sure if HK still have a strong customer base so they don’t need to allocate to new customers, or maybe just want me to buy some of their less in demand pieces 😅
I feel that its no longer wish to get watches from ADs. The bundling to get these ie Nautilus, Aquanaut, etc from ADs are too much and not worth it.
Would you buy a 4520v blue at retail? its now at 36k
I wouldn't personally as I don't like the way it wears. But if you like it, I think it's ok to buy at retail. The difference between retail and market is pretty negligible for the blue 4520v
Spot on, especially with the bundling
I never understood the stupid AD games with purchase history to get access to more desirable models. I buy a particular watch because I like the design/model and I don’t want to waste my time waiting and pleasing ADs. If they don’t want to sell me the watch I want, no problem, I will go grey market and if there is a premium to be paid, so what! By playing those AD games and having to buy stuff you really don’t want or need, you will lose way more money than paying that premium, and also not uninportant, no waiting for excessive periods of time. I have to say, being in watch collecting for 20 yrs+, I am still sad that the industry developed like this greedy, at some point in time they will get the ball thrown back when we have the next big economic crisis and watch sales will suffer more…
Great video! Would love to see prices come down from the moon and go back to the old times with good discounts....but only how one can wish.
I wonder if it's even possible for retail prices to come down
nothing in Singapore available at Rolex AD
Hello from France, the VC boutique over here offered me the new retrograde overseas with like 4/5 months waiting time without any history…
Another friend of mine got offered a blue dial overseas after 3 months without any purchase history either.
VC surely is dying there
Thanks for sharing! We see a lot of people here declining allocations
Indie retail price is going up because reseller is selling at 100 dollar after buying at 10 dollar. People are buying at 100 dollar to skip the queue and indie brand see this as opportunity to capitalise on it. AD/Grey dealer join in and the rest is self explanatory. For example, remember FPj once increase their retails over a very short period of time. Resonance was listed at 110K SGD in 2020 and now 260K SGD. Secondary transacted price was 400K. Why leave the meat on the table, take it while you can
I'm not sure about that. MB&F, De Bethune, Urwerk, and many others trade at large discounts to retail. There are few indies that go at premium nowadays, which adds to my concern for that space
do you know how much AP 15468BC.YG.1259BC.01-B is going for? Really interested in getting but dont want to pay 50K over market
In your opinion and experience, will automatic and quartz watches disappear and smart watches will rise, or will automatic watches remain stronger than smart watches and will remain and not disappear??????
The 2 are very much separate markets that are different in nature. It’s similar to comparing luxury supercars with electric cars. Both have their market and purpose, and can coexist
Poor people shouldn't play with such toys...
They all got greedy and are now suffering for it. It will be interesting to see whats their strategy next.
Ugly Cubbie is too large also. A PRX looks better !
Aim for FIRE first, before chasing watches
🔥🔥🔥
easy money laundering?