Went all in on uranium, gold, silver, and oil in 22. Took a huge hit selling all of my tech and crypto to do it. Finally looks like I made the smart choice.
What if this is the top and the commodity bull keeps hibernating? I have a nice pile of silver I would love to sell in 40's, but it still feels like wishful thinking. I often see the argument, this rally is very under bought because miners and ETF's are underperforming, implying retail has yet to jump into the trade ... but maybe they won't, maybe they can't, maybe all their liquidity is servicing 30% credit card bills.
@@JonKutsmeda Shanghai is a physical market. People in the know say the east is buying the 3.00 swing while sticking it to the west. Also the Chinese government is telling their people to save in silver. I suspect the shorts have a difficult decision. Keep shorting into strength and hope you can drive it down, or cover their shorts. Let’s face it, anything can happen. It could drop 3-4 over the next week. 👍
It did feel a bit naked this week cutting it at 30 min, haha. That's all the time we had this weekend to sync up, so we'll see what happens next week. I'd prefer 20 - 30 min, but with one or two 10-min midweek updates.
Check the the silver chart from June 29 2010 (Silver @ 17.60) until March 26 2011 (Silver @ 46.47) with only a few small corrections. History says a silver bull is a different animal. Managing your position size so you can not be shaken out is critical. Silver @ $31 is still dirt cheap.
@@JonKutsmeda Silver squeeze. Per the Silver Institute total 2024 silver supply shortfall (demand (excluding etf's) - supply) is 21%. Silver on the Shanghai exchange is at a 12% premium over recent comex price and the Shanghai inventory is below 40 days supply and dropping. Per the Silver Institute total 2024 total silver supply is 1 billion ounces. India recently bought 75 million ounces in a single month. Not in any way suggesting USD currency is going away, but wars consume massive amounts of silver and the worsening geopolitical and US fiscal concerns only make silver more attractive as an investment especially in non-western markets.
Just due to the increasing industrial demand for silver, the fact that we have produced less silver every year for the past few years, the massive increase in the cost of mining, the fact we ARE NOT investing in or searching for - discovering - or starting new silver mines; tells me silver has a massive upside with very little downside risk. Silver cannot drop below mining costs and the electrification of everything (solar) is only going to increase demand. So for me silver is a long game and I've already witnessed a more then doubling in my physical investment. I'm just a silver stacking bull to my core.
The level headed stackoooor. I dig it. The Commodity-Equity ratio will eventually swing the other way, but could first grind sideways longer. Would you consider it a win if price stays between $25 - 35 (and other commodities stay flat) but equities crash?
Thank you, Cindy. The gift on the "End of an Empire" episode was very much appreciated ... also nice to know we have subscribers in New Zealand. Whereabouts?
For me looking back at other crashes, commodity prices usually gap lower for a while. I have some positions in commodities. Right now I leaning towards a larger cash position for what's coming. If it gaps lower, fine, I'll take some of my cash and load up. If it doesn't, I do have some positions that will take advantage of that. I think diversification is key. Since liquidity is an issue and becoming more problematic, a larger cash position is what works for me. Plus I'm getting 5% with little risk, so why not?
In September 2023, Bitcoin had one of the most stable charts ever ;). However, with so many people pumping it, have you heard anyone saying Bitcoin will pull back or that it's bad at the current price? 🤣🤣Nowadays, Bitcoin has become a name pricing analysts can't mention. Nothing feels real. I'm going to grab more coffee. Great show as usual. Love these two!
Great show!!! Another majestic Sunday garden day in the Rockies with Jon and Brent. There ain’t no bettah. Kudos boys, keep em coming!!! And wtf Brent, I'm gardening at 8,200 in the desert and you cant keep a housplant in PR?!?! 😭😭😭 (But you do get this finance stuff)
I agree that inflation will be sticky. With all the recent tornado's and storms causing major property damage, the cost to rebuild homes and buildings, replace damaged vehicles, has to contribute to the inflation of prices. This seems to be a topic rarely discussed.
Precious metals are particularly dangerous because the fundamental case is so solid but let’s remember the SEASONAL aspect too… wait for mid to late June before you chase, There’s a high probability you’ll be thankful that you did.
I just started the podcast and the first blurb is true, however I'd say retail isn't really participating in this gold/silver rally as ETF flows are negative and miners haven't had any explosive moves.
Individual governments cannot put price controls on commodities unless they prohibit foreigners from buying. It will only be temporary, because removing incentives typically result in even lower production, which should make investments even more bullish albeit with a lag, right? Nationalizing mines is another issue, but that will probably only work in autocratic juristictions, not in western democracies. Public opinion has to be swayed in favour of nationalizing mines. Western nations are far away from that, right?
Great stuff here! I'm with them on hard assets like gold copper silver real estate. A friend of mine and I were have a good discussion (not about hard assests), and a good quote came up. Since then I have rethought and had to question even my own narratives. Of course it had to be star wars and it came from obi wan. "Only a sith deals in absolutes". Got me thinking of some of the discussion boards that are pro hard assets and it goes along with what Brent is saying. On that discussion board someone said "we will never see silver below 20$ an ounce again". I did ask, as I always like to ask questions, why? At that point reminded them that it did drop below 20$ within the last few years. Their answer was, "well that's in the past now". This is true it was in the past, but it can happen again too, I think. Would it last there long? I doubt it. But good food for thought here with this video. Thanks for the discussion as always guys.
My best guess is the sticky inflation paradigm. One factor that I don't hear acknowledged a lot is that China is ABSOLUTELY trying to export deflation.
Success in Life or just living life is all about cash flow. That is to say, the ability to pay any debt or any need at any moment that it's needed. Buying assets is certainly a good long-term savings idea, but at any one time you must always have the money necessary for any need or debt payment..... Holding assets is only valuable when those assets are higher in price, but that is not a guarantee at any particular moment. At some particular moments the asset value may be down, and selling it would then be negative..... So, while holding gold is important in some respects, it's not the end-all if one is forced to sell it at a bad time. Things do not always go up into the right as we're trained to believe.
Brent, just a thought about you taking some metals off the table because Commercials have gone short. This time both India and China keep buying like mad....the demand isn't some meme crowd this time who commercials can scare. You might be seeing commercials crushing themselves this time.
@@JonKutsmeda the main issue with that is I’ve seen snippets of recent episodes throughout the week so that might get confusing. I’m for longer episodes, but I’m unlikely to jump ship, my comment was partly tongue in cheek, take it as a compliment 👍🏻
On this past Friday - I said on twitter that i was going to the other side of the boat because this side was too crowded. Brent and Jon your messages are getting thur and can not thank both of you for the value of thinking that you teach. Well done Gentlemen!
Do you guys understand what the Ape community is about? Would love for you guys to seriously look into this movement. We are sick and tired of the corruption and manipulation in the markets and are demanding change.
Went all in on uranium, gold, silver, and oil in 22. Took a huge hit selling all of my tech and crypto to do it. Finally looks like I made the smart choice.
What if this is the top and the commodity bull keeps hibernating?
I have a nice pile of silver I would love to sell in 40's, but it still feels like wishful thinking.
I often see the argument, this rally is very under bought because miners and ETF's are underperforming, implying retail has yet to jump into the trade ... but maybe they won't, maybe they can't, maybe all their liquidity is servicing 30% credit card bills.
Nice! Gold, silver, oil, energy and uranium I think is a nice setup
Just an FYI, I like long episodes!
Metals have been suppressed will seek out true value. Shanghai silver selling at 38.00. The paper market is being exposed
Richard, no doubt there is manipulation somewhere, but do you think that spread has more to do with the Yuan than true price discovery?
@@JonKutsmeda Shanghai is a physical market. People in the know say the east is buying the 3.00 swing while sticking it to the west. Also the Chinese government is telling their people to save in silver. I suspect the shorts have a difficult decision. Keep shorting into strength and hope you can drive it down, or cover their shorts. Let’s face it, anything can happen. It could drop 3-4 over the next week. 👍
@@richardbrennan2913 Why would the "altruistic" government of China tell their people to save in Silver? Honest question.
Keep it long bud. You are one of the few people out there keeping us from losing our minds.
It did feel a bit naked this week cutting it at 30 min, haha. That's all the time we had this weekend to sync up, so we'll see what happens next week.
I'd prefer 20 - 30 min, but with one or two 10-min midweek updates.
I really look forward to this podcast every week. Currently my favorite out there
Thanks Cameron.
Are you an active investor or just someone who likes keeping a mind on the markets?
I’m both but more so fascinated with markets.
Check the the silver chart from June 29 2010 (Silver @ 17.60) until March 26 2011 (Silver @ 46.47) with only a few small corrections. History says a silver bull is a different animal. Managing your position size so you can not be shaken out is critical. Silver @ $31 is still dirt cheap.
Hey Charles, besides a chart analog, what similarities does the current market have to your 2010 - 2011 timeframe?
@@JonKutsmeda Silver squeeze. Per the Silver Institute total 2024 silver supply shortfall (demand (excluding etf's) - supply) is 21%. Silver on the Shanghai exchange is at a 12% premium over recent comex price and the Shanghai inventory is below 40 days supply and dropping. Per the Silver Institute total 2024 total silver supply is 1 billion ounces. India recently bought 75 million ounces in a single month. Not in any way suggesting USD currency is going away, but wars consume massive amounts of silver and the worsening geopolitical and US fiscal concerns only make silver more attractive as an investment especially in non-western markets.
Brent’s plant is the dollar 😂
Just due to the increasing industrial demand for silver, the fact that we have produced less silver every year for the past few years, the massive increase in the cost of mining, the fact we ARE NOT investing in or searching for - discovering - or starting new silver mines; tells me silver has a massive upside with very little downside risk. Silver cannot drop below mining costs and the electrification of everything (solar) is only going to increase demand. So for me silver is a long game and I've already witnessed a more then doubling in my physical investment. I'm just a silver stacking bull to my core.
The level headed stackoooor. I dig it. The Commodity-Equity ratio will eventually swing the other way, but could first grind sideways longer. Would you consider it a win if price stays between $25 - 35 (and other commodities stay flat) but equities crash?
Really appreciate Brent and John for the popcast and educations 🎉 Thank you
Thank you, Cindy. The gift on the "End of an Empire" episode was very much appreciated ... also nice to know we have subscribers in New Zealand. Whereabouts?
For me looking back at other crashes, commodity prices usually gap lower for a while. I have some positions in commodities. Right now I leaning towards a larger cash position for what's coming. If it gaps lower, fine, I'll take some of my cash and load up. If it doesn't, I do have some positions that will take advantage of that. I think diversification is key. Since liquidity is an issue and becoming more problematic, a larger cash position is what works for me. Plus I'm getting 5% with little risk, so why not?
I bought silver at the low but got out way too early. Not jumping in now.
Same ... but I also bought some in the 20's during 2011 (dumb).
I'm in profit and made shed that higher priced weight.
In September 2023, Bitcoin had one of the most stable charts ever ;). However, with so many people pumping it, have you heard anyone saying Bitcoin will pull back or that it's bad at the current price? 🤣🤣Nowadays, Bitcoin has become a name pricing analysts can't mention. Nothing feels real. I'm going to grab more coffee. Great show as usual. Love these two!
Sipping my coffee now, pondering your comment. 👍🤔
Great show.
Thank you, sir!
you forgot in 2022 lumber ripping, no pun intended.
Another great show gentlemen!
DId you see O.J. ... highest price on record! Makes me want to watch "Trading Places"
Just a heads up, this episode and the last episode didn't make it to the podcast players again.
Yes, the last episode did, and this one will too, but pod feeds will be delayed.
Silver will hit $66 by year end. It has done its correction to the downside. It is going to correct to the upside.
… and if it doesn’t?
@@MilkshakesPod if it doesn't it doesn't. But my sense it will overcorrect to the upside for once.
Brent that back and forward on the USD via the wedlock to deadlock podcast was so ❤🔥, Thanks for all the education.
Great show!!!
Another majestic Sunday garden day in the Rockies with Jon and Brent. There ain’t no bettah.
Kudos boys, keep em coming!!!
And wtf Brent, I'm gardening at 8,200 in the desert and you cant keep a housplant in PR?!?! 😭😭😭
(But you do get this finance stuff)
LOL the houseplant comment.
You must be coming into the magic of Spring in the mountains right about now?
Fo sho, its magic time here!
Replace the plant with Jack's magic commodity bean stalk or a bladed leaf plant you can smoke when you're done with it 😂
Thanks dudes
All Nighter ... we learn more about you every week, and always true to the name. ;)
@@JonKutsmeda Jon, these replies are really great. The interaction with the viewers sets this channel on a higher plain. Really appreciate you guys
@@AllNighterHeider Thanks for being part of the experience for us. Cheers!
I agree that inflation will be sticky. With all the recent tornado's and storms causing major property damage, the cost to rebuild homes and buildings, replace damaged vehicles, has to contribute to the inflation of prices. This seems to be a topic rarely discussed.
Didn't watch yet, but is Brent also updating here on the situation of his perpetual equity market short positions?
Precious metals are particularly dangerous because the fundamental case is so solid but let’s remember the SEASONAL aspect too… wait for mid to late June before you chase, There’s a high probability you’ll be thankful that you did.
Pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good! 👍
👌 😉
I just started the podcast and the first blurb is true, however I'd say retail isn't really participating in this gold/silver rally as ETF flows are negative and miners haven't had any explosive moves.
The holders of junior mining and junior energy stocks can see their equity drop by 90% in a black swan event.
Love this podcast!
Thanks Robert, we greatly appreciate you joining us every weekend.
Any simple portfolio for the average Joe? I listen to you every week so I have an idea but would like your thoughts.
Individual governments cannot put price controls on commodities unless they prohibit foreigners from buying. It will only be temporary, because removing incentives typically result in even lower production, which should make investments even more bullish albeit with a lag, right?
Nationalizing mines is another issue, but that will probably only work in autocratic juristictions, not in western democracies. Public opinion has to be swayed in favour of nationalizing mines. Western nations are far away from that, right?
I think the new elections in Mexico will shock silver mine investors when she nationalizes them!
Great stuff here! I'm with them on hard assets like gold copper silver real estate. A friend of mine and I were have a good discussion (not about hard assests), and a good quote came up. Since then I have rethought and had to question even my own narratives. Of course it had to be star wars and it came from obi wan. "Only a sith deals in absolutes". Got me thinking of some of the discussion boards that are pro hard assets and it goes along with what Brent is saying. On that discussion board someone said "we will never see silver below 20$ an ounce again". I did ask, as I always like to ask questions, why? At that point reminded them that it did drop below 20$ within the last few years. Their answer was, "well that's in the past now". This is true it was in the past, but it can happen again too, I think. Would it last there long? I doubt it. But good food for thought here with this video. Thanks for the discussion as always guys.
That plant looks fantastic. 🥴
Haha, indeed.
Interesting word choice. LOL
My best guess is the sticky inflation paradigm. One factor that I don't hear acknowledged a lot is that China is ABSOLUTELY trying to export deflation.
Comparing PMs to GME??? 😂 come on cuz!
Success in Life or just living life is all about cash flow. That is to say, the ability to pay any debt or any need at any moment that it's needed. Buying assets is certainly a good long-term savings idea, but at any one time you must always have the money necessary for any need or debt payment..... Holding assets is only valuable when those assets are higher in price, but that is not a guarantee at any particular moment. At some particular moments the asset value may be down, and selling it would then be negative..... So, while holding gold is important in some respects, it's not the end-all if one is forced to sell it at a bad time. Things do not always go up into the right as we're trained to believe.
Brent, just a thought about you taking some metals off the table because Commercials have gone short. This time both India and China keep buying like mad....the demand isn't some meme crowd this time who commercials can scare. You might be seeing commercials crushing themselves this time.
What if the negative correlation breaks? ...probably a mistake to assume variables are static and not dynamic in markets.
Really good point.
So, then how should we interpret the chart?
It’s probably root bound. It needs a bigger pot
It needed to not be neglected for a month while Brent was not at home. Haha.
I miss the white earphones and white puffer jacket... that was insane.
Silver is boring and has no smell or texture. It's going back to 24$ by August. Slam time soon. Thanks for playing.
I think mining break even costs for silver is headed to around $24. So all silver production would shut down?
Awesome thanks so much for sharing your views. By the way I love the longer videos 1h and above.
Have a good week boys. Love you.
Cheers, blues man, thanks for all the engagement here and on twitter.
Or NVDA that goes straight up
I doubt they’d be happy with very many of our leaders since the Founding. In the end the greater good is served.
Charts say $37 an ounce. I’m selling at $38. Should over shoot a little.
The bigger short movie? Oh Brent.
Too short! I feel ripped off!
Sorry, no refunds. What if the weekend ep is 20-30, and there is a 10-15 midweek?
@@JonKutsmeda the main issue with that is I’ve seen snippets of recent episodes throughout the week so that might get confusing. I’m for longer episodes, but I’m unlikely to jump ship, my comment was partly tongue in cheek, take it as a compliment 👍🏻
Brent's palm tree needs a plant food milkshake!
On this past Friday - I said on twitter that i was going to the other side of the boat because this side was too crowded. Brent and Jon your messages are getting thur and can not thank both of you for the value of thinking that you teach. Well done Gentlemen!
Do you guys understand what the Ape community is about? Would love for you guys to seriously look into this movement. We are sick and tired of the corruption and manipulation in the markets and are demanding change.
Demanding change by trying to manipulate markets with memes?
Well that close minded response clearly shows ignorance on your part and an over simplification of the matter.
Dumb Money 😂 BIG SHORT
The bigoooor short
@@MilkshakesPod I’m long bond >__< Even Higher for Longer
I would marry Brent anytime
The plant said the same thing.
Brent “it might not happen, it could go up it could go down” Johnson 😅
New shirt in the works ... ICGU (front) ICGD (back)
Larry David Is more- so a toxic lefty.
Brent do you realize that the dollar has lost about 90%+ of its purchasing power in the last 100 years?
Never occurred to anyone and definitely not something discussed 100 times on this channel.
@@MilkshakesPod is there any currency tgat has done better than the usd in that 100 years..?
@@MilkshakesPod Well based on that interview it seems like it went over your heads.
Brent, You are spending too much time with nonsense that has nothing to do with markets or your very valuable opinions about them.
DONT YOU EVER< EVER!@ BAD MOUTH SILVBER
Always love to get your contrasting opinions. Keep up the good work.
@@jed1392 Where is your favorite place to buy silver, and why?