Uncertainty around politics and Fed policy has investors anxious, but the real pain still lies ahead

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  • Опубліковано 15 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 138

  • @jimmyolsenblues
    @jimmyolsenblues 5 місяців тому +23

    You guys are the best. I am starting a job for $20/hr. I am no millionaire. I appreciate you teaching me. Take care. Be safe.

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +1

      🤝

    • @sageknoll3285
      @sageknoll3285 5 місяців тому +1

      I’ve been studying finance, monetary theory, and trading for several years, but I’m new. I’ve winnowed down the people I follow to a small group, and Brent and Jon are at the top of the list.
      You came to the right place.
      There are lots of smart people in finance. There are lots of sincere/honest people in finance. There are not very many honest and smart people in finance.
      Brent and Jon are both. You are off to the best kind of start.
      See you in the Master Class!

    • @jonEmontana
      @jonEmontana 5 місяців тому +1

      Smartest thing you can do is what you are doing. Educate yourself. Thoughtful money is another great source. Of course X is the free university of macro and markets

  • @nickc3856
    @nickc3856 5 місяців тому +17

    Thank you for time stamping the segments

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +2

      🤝

    • @yep3410
      @yep3410 5 місяців тому

      @@JonKutsmeda they're a bit off, though.......

  • @MunnyLerner
    @MunnyLerner 5 місяців тому

    15:00 Thank you!!! The Chinese property market IS integral to understanding the rest of the financial world. Also, excellent terminology "Big Divorce" - I haven't heard that yet but that exactly describes it! Edit - and thank you for the very easy to follow connection between the Japanese Yen and China and how either direction for the Yen has harsh consequences, that was the best description of the situation I've encountered yet!

  • @brettonwoodsvsbtc1217
    @brettonwoodsvsbtc1217 5 місяців тому +3

    Most important show in 12 months. Thank you 1 for giving me confidence to know that 10 % up in a trade is ok. Always beating myself up for not getting enough alpha. 2 FX markets dictate all activity. Happy 4th July

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +2

      Happy 4th - will you be vacationing at Jekyll Island, per usual? 😉

    • @mwilliamson4198
      @mwilliamson4198 5 місяців тому +1

      @@JonKutsmeda They got a deal where you only pay 1% of the accommodation fee and fractional reserve pays the rest. Who wouldn't want to take up that offer

  • @wihanvanzyl4564
    @wihanvanzyl4564 5 місяців тому +1

    If nothing else, the compassion with which Brent speaks is enough to make me value his opinions and theories.

  • @anthonyyoung6489
    @anthonyyoung6489 5 місяців тому +5

    Great paper by way. I read all 49 pages. It might be one of the most consequential papers I’ve read in the last 10 years. Maybe longer. Great read for anyone that hasn’t read it.
    Actually Carson does some good stuff over at muddy waters so maybe it’s not one of the best things I’ve read in 10 years. It’s up there.

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому

      Amazing feedback Anthony, thank you. 🙏

  • @jstro7136
    @jstro7136 5 місяців тому +1

    I appreciate your analysis of Julian Assange. I was on the fence for years about it. The treatment he received incentivizes government corruption and disincentivizes the truth.

  • @fatfatthewaterrat5010
    @fatfatthewaterrat5010 5 місяців тому +5

    The obituaries will carry on. Thanks guys

  • @truerebelproduction6452
    @truerebelproduction6452 5 місяців тому +1

    Thanks!

  • @jonathanlee5185
    @jonathanlee5185 5 місяців тому +3

    👍As a Brit I would like to thank Brent for orientating his map along the right-angle axis of England as the ultimate horizontal !! (In geographical fact, GB tilts off at a tangential to the poles.)👍

  • @toopawk
    @toopawk 5 місяців тому

    Brent should write a book though. I'd definitely read it. I've enjoyed his perspective on investing and learned a lot from the markets. Huge gold bug when I first started, but when I started studying everyone else's take and borrowing their ideas, I realize now that the financial system is much more complex. It'd be a continuation of the Alchemy of Finance. He said there's 7 hours of content in the masterclass, so that's pretty good writing material too. Hopefully the sequel is as good as the original ? I mean I think, Lyn Alden recently wrote one, maybe you should too.

  • @jimmyolsenblues
    @jimmyolsenblues 5 місяців тому +4

    Missed you guys. I was in withdrawal. Just walking around the house steel manning other arguments saying. I could be completely wrong and it would not surprise me.

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +2

      Thanks Jimmy, happy to have you here as always. 👍

  • @CrestoneColorado-yj4we
    @CrestoneColorado-yj4we 5 місяців тому

    Again, another awesome show!!!

  • @mkayultra999
    @mkayultra999 5 місяців тому

    Is there anything we should prepare to listen to this 8hr seminar so we can get the best out of it in the short time?

  • @nacetroy
    @nacetroy 5 місяців тому +1

    Thanks for an illuminating 'cast with a thoughtful and broad scope, AGAIN! 😁

  • @michaellong2233
    @michaellong2233 5 місяців тому +1

    AGAIN!!, good discussion

  • @mattbittner775
    @mattbittner775 5 місяців тому

    Why did the Sachs realty debate UA-cam video get taken down?

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +2

      The 2-hour live?
      It’s under the live tab.
      They should probably have a playlist on the channel home page, because it’s not very intuitive the way UA-cam puts live videos under a separate tab.

    • @mattbittner775
      @mattbittner775 5 місяців тому

      It appeared as if it was a separate video from the 2 HR live stream. The reason I noticed is that I had the UA-cam video in a open tab and when I went to watch it it said video unavailable

  • @c2plex
    @c2plex 5 місяців тому

    Great show gents, love the content and it’s wild how blind I was to all of this stuff just 3 months ago.

  • @trevordowney6425
    @trevordowney6425 5 місяців тому

    Great chat as usual guys. Thank you!

  • @kimeccleston5586
    @kimeccleston5586 5 місяців тому +1

    That was a really good episode thankyou.

  • @jorgemmc21
    @jorgemmc21 5 місяців тому +1

    100% in agreement with Bret about the US dominance. The US is far from being saints, but the alternative to Pax americana is too bad to even consider.

  • @ejradrenalin
    @ejradrenalin 5 місяців тому +2

    Drinking game with Brent Johnson. He said "again" again, another shot 😂

  • @randyromano2854
    @randyromano2854 5 місяців тому

    Hmm, if the yen carry trade is real, the yen should appreciate; more buyers/borrowers of the yen. The Nikkei is also rising so the yen should rise because you can't invest in the Nikkei without buying yen. This is the same argument that the dollar is rising, right? Something isn't right.
    Comparing the Japanese economy to the US is not like comparing apples and oranges, it's like comparing apples and uranium.
    Missed you guys last week; good show. Thank you.

  • @83442handle
    @83442handle 5 місяців тому +1

    0:33 I thought Jon was going to use a Philly reference and use Rocky 3 when clubber lang says "prediction?......paiiinnnnnnnn"

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +1

      Bookmarking it now 😉

    • @83442handle
      @83442handle 5 місяців тому

      @@JonKutsmeda legend

  • @cyb_structure
    @cyb_structure 5 місяців тому +1

    Boom, new episode!
    👊🏼☕️

  • @HermanEmerson-ht1te
    @HermanEmerson-ht1te 5 місяців тому

    What do you think of David Webbs The Great taking and how does that work into investing in the equities? Thanks

  • @MeMe-lm9bm
    @MeMe-lm9bm 5 місяців тому

    Where is the master class being held. I’m interested.

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +2

      Online.

    • @MeMe-lm9bm
      @MeMe-lm9bm 5 місяців тому

      @@JonKutsmeda thank you...Ill go back to the thread

  • @John-hg3zd
    @John-hg3zd 5 місяців тому +1

    Awesome insights as always. FYI: Way too much reverb from Jon’s side, distracting.

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +2

      I’m traveling. Can’t do much about it, tried, but I’ll be back with my normal set up next week.
      FYI … don’t ever buy a Blue Yeti microphone, garbage.

  • @matthiasgrutzner9768
    @matthiasgrutzner9768 5 місяців тому +3

    Again is the weapon of choice for Brent and Gareth Soloway. Lance Roberts is more a you know type of guy. 😅

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому

      😉 👍

    • @jcgoogle1808
      @jcgoogle1808 5 місяців тому

      No, Lance Roberts has that annoying,..
      "No No No yeah yeah",.. thing.

    • @tactileslut
      @tactileslut 5 місяців тому

      I really hope you word counters are using computers for that instead of listening through ignoring the content but marking off the hash marks. -////- ///

  • @mountainpeople5152
    @mountainpeople5152 5 місяців тому +1

    The Fed prevented pain from happening when they expressed the intention to cut at the end of 23. Not sure they want to see pain now.

  • @tonioinverness
    @tonioinverness 5 місяців тому

    When Brent talks about gold, bitcoin, etc. I personally think it's important that he really emphasize the time horizon of the trader/investor. I know he briefly mentioned it as a afterthought, but I think it's key. He likes to do this kind of "haha, if you bought gold a month ago you're down." Ok? So? Let's talk in 15 years, I'm in no rush. Not to mention bitcoin. I could lose 90% of my investment today but then be a millionaire by the end of the week. Just because you bought something doesn't mean you thought it was only ever going to go up. Just because you bought it doesn't mean you thought you were sniping a bottom.

    • @mwilliamson4198
      @mwilliamson4198 5 місяців тому

      Yeah, in other podcasts he has emphasized this a lot more. Did you see his recent interview with Adam Taggart?

  • @emanuelefaraoni4674
    @emanuelefaraoni4674 5 місяців тому

    The final song was a classy touch

  • @hollygardner5076
    @hollygardner5076 5 місяців тому +1

    I am interested in the Masterclass

    • @MilkshakesPod
      @MilkshakesPod  5 місяців тому +2

      Great Holly 👍 Send us an email to the address mentioned. Thank you.

  • @pauldichtel6410
    @pauldichtel6410 5 місяців тому +1

    How I Learned To Love The US Dollar by Brent Johnson. Foreword by John Kutsmeda

  • @jshawsworld
    @jshawsworld 5 місяців тому

    Is Fed going to cut in September and risk being called political before the November election?

  • @hancockp23
    @hancockp23 5 місяців тому

    Looks like Beryl is staying south of PR. Good news for Brent and family. Praying for those in its path 🙏

  • @LQVendorFP
    @LQVendorFP 5 місяців тому

    Just like all assets, gold can be short term overbought and buyers at those levels run the risk of being "underwater" for weeks to months, possibly a few years. Only in the case of buying the most extreme runup is there a risk of being underwater for more than 5 years. Bitcoin is the only exception given its shorter history than gold

  • @geogsi88
    @geogsi88 5 місяців тому +1

    Brent The Milkshake, lagging SPX since 1945.

  • @thysmusic
    @thysmusic 5 місяців тому

    @jonkutsmeda you could really improve your sound quality (while travelling) by getting a cheap light weight usb podcast microphone that catches more of your voice relative to the reverb of your voice in your room. Or getting closer to the laptop built in microphone but that looks really weird on the webcam haha.

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому

      I have one … more than one.
      I take sound quality very serious.
      I tried remixing this audio twice.
      I tried different methods while on the round, but sometimes it just turns out bad when too many variables arise.
      It’s not the end of the world, and good enough for a one off.

  • @v3rtig035
    @v3rtig035 5 місяців тому +4

    Not Brent, but the other guy should spend some money and get a decent mic. His audio sounds terrible.

    • @MilkshakesPod
      @MilkshakesPod  5 місяців тому +4

      He’s traveling at the moment chief. 😒

    • @IaintTheHerb
      @IaintTheHerb 5 місяців тому +1

      ​@@MilkshakesPodno excuses 😂

    • @thysmusic
      @thysmusic 5 місяців тому

      @@MilkshakesPoda usb podcast mic weighs and costs next to nothing these days

  • @margator1036
    @margator1036 5 місяців тому +1

    The Yen is the poster child for what will happen to the Chinese currency not the dollar.

    • @mwilliamson4198
      @mwilliamson4198 5 місяців тому

      Yeah I tend to agree. Michael Howell suggesting something similar.

    • @antpoo
      @antpoo 5 місяців тому

      When China has everything the world needs? Yeah that makes sense.

  • @jandejong2430
    @jandejong2430 5 місяців тому

    It's not about Assange, it's about dissuading journalism.

  • @PemmieM
    @PemmieM 5 місяців тому +1

    Great episode as always. I sent an email quite a while back. However did not receive some sort of confirmation. I assume all is good and that my email was received.

    • @MilkshakesPod
      @MilkshakesPod  5 місяців тому

      We will send out confirmations shortly.
      You’ll have time to make sure you are on the early bird list before we announce it more publicly.
      We want to make sure the core audience has priority access.

  • @danielboughton3624
    @danielboughton3624 5 місяців тому +2

    Regarding Assange it can't be treason if you are not a citizen. If he was a citizen then he should be protected under the 1st amendment. If he is not a citizen then you have to ask how the US has jurisdiction over his journalism.

    • @mwilliamson4198
      @mwilliamson4198 5 місяців тому

      Yeah agree. disappointed by his comments re Assange.

  • @normal_norm2627
    @normal_norm2627 5 місяців тому

    So Jon. If you're going to bug Brent about saying "again" you should also track how many times you both say "you know"..... 😂😂
    I'd say Brent hit 100 "you know's" during the entire video. Tell him he can break that. I used to say "um" but because of all the meetings during my career, I just focused on actually thinking what I was saying. Cheers guys.

  • @user-dixk2rx5gz8f
    @user-dixk2rx5gz8f 5 місяців тому +2

    Don't despair, Brent. Benjamin Cowen, (PhD with 802K subscribers @ Into The Cryptoverse ) is the original 'Mr. Again'. 😊

    • @mwilliamson4198
      @mwilliamson4198 5 місяців тому

      He's good. He's got some really good engineer techy TA and I like his risk metric. What he says about short term price action in crypto is embarrassingly simplistic though.

  • @taylorcollins615
    @taylorcollins615 5 місяців тому +2

    Good day gents

  • @davidisaksen5070
    @davidisaksen5070 5 місяців тому

    24:30 : great point. One certain McScamough hasnt bothered to mention this on the services he sells😂

  • @TheMuttonHeadDigest
    @TheMuttonHeadDigest 5 місяців тому +1

    Either way the state will put an Indian figurehead at the top.

  • @sbain844
    @sbain844 5 місяців тому

    R.I.P. Petrodollar..... it was fun while it lasted.

    • @sbain844
      @sbain844 5 місяців тому

      Again, R.I.P. lol

  • @danclark2013
    @danclark2013 5 місяців тому

    You guys missed a golden opportunity for a leading video clip from Its Always Sunny from “The Nightman Cometh” from all this talk about filling holes.

  • @margator1036
    @margator1036 5 місяців тому

    The Fed has an inflation and unemployment mandate not a stock market mandate or a real estate price mandate. Obviously those markets are affected but they should not determine the Feds policies. The big distortion.

    • @mwilliamson4198
      @mwilliamson4198 5 місяців тому

      They also have a "mandate" to not screw over the most powerful demographic in the country - Baby boomers with massive wealth in equities

  • @jackroth584
    @jackroth584 5 місяців тому

    Brent gave up a full minute of trading in order to break even....instead of using that minute to make 10x. That trade off makes no sense.

  • @sirluciussquigglesworthlll6503
    @sirluciussquigglesworthlll6503 5 місяців тому +1

    🔥

  • @krystankurwiec5140
    @krystankurwiec5140 5 місяців тому

    26:10

  • @sumitomoO0O
    @sumitomoO0O 5 місяців тому +3

    Jon, Please STOP counting the "again". I interact with people who uses some filler word (right?, right? OK? OK?) once in every 8-10 words, at least Brent uses "again" only once in 50~70 words, which is completely normal and doesnt distract anybody except you. I never noticed it and now your counting make it distracting, let him talk however he likes

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +3

      Please STOP commenting, how about that?
      It was a one time thing to poke at Brent, as an inside joke.
      The fact you can’t find the humor in it is ridiculous.
      … and the reason you never notice it is because I always edit it out.
      ✌️

    • @sageknoll3285
      @sageknoll3285 5 місяців тому

      You should do a react video to the comments section. Make it PPV. I’d get my wallet out to watch you turn purple.
      It’s as though you vented my negative emotional disregulation on my behalf.
      Again.

  • @DaniilDimitrov
    @DaniilDimitrov 5 місяців тому +2

    First to write first

    • @MilkshakesPod
      @MilkshakesPod  5 місяців тому +4

      FIRST TO WRITE FIRST in all caps 😉

  • @IaintTheHerb
    @IaintTheHerb 5 місяців тому

    Masterclass TL;DR: "Dollar, Dollar, I love the Dollar! "🙄
    If we get QE, no, gold wont go to $3k, just the opposite 😂

  • @markrafferty992
    @markrafferty992 5 місяців тому +4

    Go Eagles 🦅

  • @joshuaburns3167
    @joshuaburns3167 5 місяців тому

    RFK jr would sure provide the uncertainty 😁

  • @bp5662
    @bp5662 5 місяців тому

    You're gonna need a "you know" counter next. 😂 He really seems to like those filler words.

  • @George-wk2bf
    @George-wk2bf 5 місяців тому

    Bastard debts ,all combat short memory, go for limited losses ,war sucks. :"""(

  • @pauldichtel6410
    @pauldichtel6410 5 місяців тому

    I am always getting these women on X saying they make so much in passive income with their gold backed Tether play.

  • @Jorgie1944
    @Jorgie1944 5 місяців тому

    Sadness and madness. I didn't watch it because I can't stand to watch either one of the candidates, for different cringey reasons
    So Trump is likely to win, what does that mean for my portfolio?

  • @sageknoll3285
    @sageknoll3285 5 місяців тому

    A week without the Milkshake-pod is like a week without sunshine and sarcasm. Completely uncivilized.
    I can’t wait for the Master Class. That replaces Christmas this year.
    If “again” bothers Brent, he could replace it with “Dude,” or “like.”
    I have other suggestions for filler words as well. Mostly short words. Like, four letters mostly. Dude.

  • @wifiunove1650
    @wifiunove1650 5 місяців тому

  • @nvda2damoon
    @nvda2damoon 5 місяців тому

    after the ETF launch where will BTC get the next bunch of greater fools. the game will be over soon.

  • @touchofgrace3217
    @touchofgrace3217 5 місяців тому

    QE, dovish, market spread, Cleanest dirty shirt. If this video isn’t filled with jargon I can’t imagine trying to follow one that is. 😂😂

  • @desiderioyanez6272
    @desiderioyanez6272 5 місяців тому

    Again baby t then again I got a couple different ones

  • @kiwoongpk91
    @kiwoongpk91 5 місяців тому

    guys
    you guys mentioned price levels while talking about dollar
    do you think Bitcoin is the new currency?
    Because if price is a gauge for the fundamental strength of the underlying thing
    Bitcoin is the king
    and I know you guys don't agree with this view
    so what's with the weird use of your own logic

    • @kiwoongpk91
      @kiwoongpk91 5 місяців тому

      actually, NVDA might be the new king
      I haven't checked tick for tick
      but I think you guys understand my point beyond whatever asset I choose to replace that with

    • @MilkshakesPod
      @MilkshakesPod  5 місяців тому +1

      Not sure the point you are making, but money/currency and assets are different things.
      Also not sure why people choose to ignore the point made every episode, that yes the dollar will continue to weaken and therefore the “price” of assets will continue to rise (over time).

    • @kiwoongpk91
      @kiwoongpk91 5 місяців тому

      @@MilkshakesPod
      The point that I’m making is that maybe you guys shouldn’t be laughing at other people’s opinions when you guys can’t even keep your own consistencies straight.
      And yes, they are different things. USDT is an asset and usd is currency apparently 🤣
      Most currencies suck as medium of exchange and most assets suck as measure of value of one’s overall wealth. At the end of the day, they’re all just numbers on a ledger and some are more liquid than others and some are more volatile than others so maybe we can stop pretending that lingos matter in what is already not a system based on fundamental value.

  • @konigvonpreuen8065
    @konigvonpreuen8065 5 місяців тому

    Brent will buy BTC at $300+k

  • @KBroly
    @KBroly 5 місяців тому +1

    Politically speaking, it's VERY difficult to replace Biden at the top of ticket, not only due to party rules, but statewide election laws. Biden cannot be replaced on the ballot in Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia at present time aside from extemporaneous circumstances (him bowing out/25th amendment would not apply). The Democrats putting up a new nominee at the Convention means no one would be on the ballot for them in Ohio, effectively ceding the Senate to the Republicans, since West Virginia's seat is almost certainly going their way. And this is even before considering who they might consider putting up.

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +2

      Seems like they shot themselves in the foot then, but HOW did they not expect this would be the result??

    • @sageknoll3285
      @sageknoll3285 5 місяців тому

      @@JonKutsmeda
      People think who’s in the Oval Office matters more than it does. We live in the Land of Oz, and we haven’t had a look behind the curtain yet.

    • @KBroly
      @KBroly 5 місяців тому

      ​@@JonKutsmeda They didn't expect Trump to accept the supposedly one-sided rules debate. Once he did, the week in private explains what they were trying to do, i.e. change his internal schedule.

  • @normal_norm2627
    @normal_norm2627 5 місяців тому +3

    Assange is a hero... Isn't it amazing how we are so propagandized here in the US? I feel for it at first myself. Now I question EVERYTHING we are told about individuals and other countries.

  • @omrit2
    @omrit2 5 місяців тому

    Relentlessly pushing the permabear stance. Maybe listen a bit to David Hunter? A melt up is in the cards.

    • @JonKutsmeda
      @JonKutsmeda 5 місяців тому +2

      Good thing we’re long then, eh?

    • @sageknoll3285
      @sageknoll3285 5 місяців тому

      You almost HAD to do a master class to explain short-term trading, long-term investing, and end-game forecasts-and that the three are not the same.
      I need a copypasta that just says “Milkshake theory does not mean what you think it means.”
      At this point, Milkshake Theory is as baffling to the normie mind as the word “inconceivable” was to the bald dude on Princess Bride.

  • @vktravellog1242
    @vktravellog1242 5 місяців тому

    Again 😂

  • @harriscohen4489
    @harriscohen4489 5 місяців тому

    Julian Assange is a journalist? You really need to reassess your perspective, Brent. If you support how he obtained information, how can your clients feel secure knowing you have access to their accounts? This raises serious concerns about the potential misuse of their information for profit.

    • @mwilliamson4198
      @mwilliamson4198 5 місяців тому

      How do you define a journalist? Who gets to decide who is a journalist? In Congress they called Matt Taibbi, one of the most respected and awarded journalist in the US a "so called journalist".