So Giancarlo recently released a video talking about his philosophy on attacking. Lately he finds himself going upper body attack>lower body attack>sweep/wrestle up. With juijitsu as a whole being better at defending leg attacks, it opens up that dilemma for the attacker between defending the HH and getting your hips high to defend the sweep. This may be what the data is showing you.
The combination of straight ankle lock, heel hook and Aoki lock is game changing, it might not be putting up the numbers but everyone who is anyone on the leglock scene is aware of it and The Matrix back take that's been happening more and more on the mats.
Amazing data! Thanks for your hard work! From your data. 63.9% of submissions happen in the first 0-3 minutes. Do most submissions happen earlier in the tournament? This is when the lower skilled competitors have not yet been eliminated. My thought process is that large skill differences skews data towards less robust submissions. Any data or thoughts?
From my perspective, the data seems to be saying if you can't sub a guy in 3 minutes, you likely won't... unless you're on their back. All of that makes sense because early heel hooks are easier when you're dry and holding onto a slippery (3+ minute) limb is hard, but sometimes a RNC slips in easier (which may be why it's more prevalent later in the matches).
Awesome stuff Short Haired Jake! It is a Shame that you could not take a closer look at the 66kg Asia and oceania trials- David Stoil and Jeremy Skinner used straight ashi really well. Data is inevitably skewed :(
Yeah I found it pretty difficult to find individual matches and I thought if I just searched for “Jeremy skinner” then it would skew the results even more. Seemed like a lose lose situation
Interesting stats there, especially with regards to the relationship between the heel hook and the RNC. However, do you think it could be argued that most leg locks occur in the first 3 minutes due to major skill discrepancies in the leg lock game, rather than the effectiveness of leg locks somehow dropping around the 3 minute mark. My theory is that when skills in leg locks are equal, and it is unlikely that either grappler with get leg locked quickly, the deciding factor becomes the positional battle, where the RNC will dominate, since it is the most positionally focused submission of all. I would love to see a separate video comparing the rate of different submissions, and whether the rate of sweeps and passes increases when specifically leg lockers have competed against each other. Off the top of my head, Gordon vs Craig, Gordon vs Lachlan, Lachlan vs Garry Tonon all ended in either RNC or whoever won positionally. I’m not saying that leg locks don’t work when both are competent, but that they aren’t any more high percentage than other submissions like an armbar. It’s kinda like when wrestlers fight each other in MMA, they typically win through striking.
Yeah I think the skill discrepancy thing is definitely a factor. I need to think of a way to get around this. Maybe weighting the later rounds more than the early ones
Would you say the three minute difference between heel hooks and RNC is biased due to the rule set and not a general statement on the effectiveness on the guard pull strategy in jiu jitsu? Like you could be passed (so wrestle up) or actually you're now incentivized to sweep after 3 mins at ADCC because now there are points.
Yeah I was thinking this too. This might be the current state of the meta in trials / championships, but where is the meta going? BJJ Heroes posted an article which pretty much says the opposite of these videos - that top position and wrestling are the way to go. I’m personally skeptical of the first half guard pull / second half wrestling strategy - I think you’ve got a better chance being really good at either one or the other. I’m also from Australia, and we have next to no real wrestling, but a lot of leg locks, so the comparative advantage for Australian competitors would almost always be to just learn guard play and leg locks, or move to the US lol. I think at the end of the day as much as its interesting to think about the current meta and where it’s going, unless you have serious competitive goals, you’re probably best off just playing a style you enjoy - I really love Lachlan Giles’ style and it fits with my goals of being flexible, not having to rely on my weight, and I’m able to learn that style quite easily, even if it’s very rarely used / is very rarely successful at very high levels. Big rant over cheers
I think the higher incidence of leg lock finishes before 3 minutes is just because they're still new and a significant portion of the people being submitted with them haven't yet learned how to defend them effectively
Do you think the dominance of taking the back means that competitions should re-evaluate whether turtling to avoid points should be incentivized? Seems like without that rule more people would accept side control instead of back exposure. I guess I’m not really sure of the inherent strength of turtling over getting pinned and how that should be reflected in the point system.
If most wins and submissions come from taking the back through top position, and turtling is a more efficient path to wrestling to gain top position than being pinned in side control, it makes sense to turtle
do NOT forget to keep in mind that this data comes from the very best in the world. This Data would drastically change if it were done on lower ranks. If you are a lower belt dont start drastically changing your game to fit this Data, it wont work. play YOUR game, and adapt as you level up.
2:20 FINALLY MY ANKLE GANG RISE UP! crazy how some of the biggest dudes I know will tap because pain is to much but small skinny guys be like "BREAK IT"
majority of us probably compete in tournaments that dont allow heel hooks and cross ashi, wondering if pull guard still viable option or should 100% work on wrestling in those leglock restricted rule set.
Do you think guard pulls are analogous to gambits in chess? You give up a small advantage to try to lure your opponent into traps and pathways you have set up for them. If your opponent doesn't know your specific pathways, you can win quickly.
@@Bluis5445 Hahaha I'm learning takedowns now, because gambits ultimately don't work! I think all agressive gambits in chess have been debunked (excepts Queen's gambit which is hardly a gambit) - our sport is younger, but my theory is that the same will happen in BJJ. All guard pulls will be debunked, except maybe the judo sacrifice throws (tomoe nage, sumi gaeshi), which should be used as immediate sweep attempts.
Well for me this has turned into a statistical analysis class instead of an alive exploration of the evolution of the most contemporary submission chains..I get it..good info but if that's it then ??
Cool you're are doing it perfectly..suggestion don't mention your guard passing video more than once..we are all so used to being sold shit..no need some Indian dude said "when the flower blooms the bees come uninvited" you have got it kid, blooming is on tap..,intuitive hit trust yourself don't let your girl over influence..just a feel..peace and appreciation!!@@LIMIBJJ Coll
Heard a guy came into Craig jones gym and just ankle lock everybody. 🤔 Ankle gang rise up? Probably not. Idk why but in high level completion dudes will let there ankles break and pop. I mean I seen it 50/50where broken Ankle guy wins to get top but also seen lose because he tried to get up or go for a sub and mess up because Ankle pain gets em off
The data for total amount of heel hooks or whatever you’re analyzing is going to be skewed because there were so many more matches at west coast trials than any other region. In other words, there’s going to be more inside heel hooks finished in west coast trials compared to asia/oceania trials because of the number of matches, not the style/strategy necessarily. You would have to analyze this like a ratio of matches to inside heel hook finishes.
Maybe a little off topic but what are your thoughts on counter-wrestling as an alternative to guard pulling (probably later in the match based on your research)? Particularly for guard players who might be able to take advantage of scrambles with both lower and upper body attacks? Looking back at old videos of Rafa, he was really good at this and I think Cole would've shown similar had he made it past Fabrecio. Seems we're very focused on becoming competent wrestlers (and rightfully so), but maybe it's worth pulling on that counter-wrestling thread a little more..
@@LIMIBJJ darces, anacondas, guillotines, arm drags, kimuras, sumi’s or leg entries off singles and doubles. Pedro has just one of these weapons and causes a lot of problems. Also maybe instead of just sitting, pull w a snap or 2 on 1 or of from kazushi to facilitate a leg attack. Sitting guard doesn’t seem to be helping the sport but also maybe it’s a missed opportunity.
Straight ashi is just anything where the leg does not cross your center line. So like single leg x or the classic real position is considered a straight ashi
@@LIMIBJJ yep exactly what I kinda thought too. I wonder if those wrestling exchanges will still show to be unfavorable. Not gonna lie this video kinda blew my mind
Pulling guard should be penalized. It’s to sport specific and kills the legitimacy of jujitsu as a fighting style. At the end of the day no one in their right mind would pull guard in a street fight.
Free Infographic -66kg: limibjj.mykajabi.com/66kg
Check out my first instructional course on passing half guard: limibjj.mykajabi.com/course
I got the Half Guard Instructional and I have been stoked to implement the ideas and concepts…love the warmup idea too❤
So Giancarlo recently released a video talking about his philosophy on attacking. Lately he finds himself going upper body attack>lower body attack>sweep/wrestle up. With juijitsu as a whole being better at defending leg attacks, it opens up that dilemma for the attacker between defending the HH and getting your hips high to defend the sweep. This may be what the data is showing you.
Can you explain that like I'm a white belt?
Yeah makes total sense! Appreciate the comment!
literally just posting data. fucking love it.
🙌🏼
The combination of straight ankle lock, heel hook and Aoki lock is game changing, it might not be putting up the numbers but everyone who is anyone on the leglock scene is aware of it and The Matrix back take that's been happening more and more on the mats.
True that!
Amazing data! Thanks for your hard work!
From your data. 63.9% of submissions happen in the first 0-3 minutes. Do most submissions happen earlier in the tournament? This is when the lower skilled competitors have not yet been eliminated. My thought process is that large skill differences skews data towards less robust submissions.
Any data or thoughts?
Ooo, interesting thought.
Yeah for sure I imagine this has a lot to do with it! Maybe it would be helpful to distinguish the ADCC matches from the trials matches
From my perspective, the data seems to be saying if you can't sub a guy in 3 minutes, you likely won't... unless you're on their back. All of that makes sense because early heel hooks are easier when you're dry and holding onto a slippery (3+ minute) limb is hard, but sometimes a RNC slips in easier (which may be why it's more prevalent later in the matches).
It’s also a fatigue issue. Most people can defend RNCs when fresh.
Helpful, educational content that makes for a better world. Best content on UA-cam. 👊
Much appreciated! Thank you! 👊🏼
The amount of research you put into your videos!!! 😵💫🙌🎉🤙
Thank you! 🙌🏼 appreciate the comment and the support!
The community owns you a lot LIMI! Thank you
Thank you for the comment and the support!
I've also been pulling match data (stopped at the beginning of the year due to son being born), and things you see there are a game changer.
🙌🏼
You're literally the GOAT!! Amazing analysis
Thank you! Appreciate the comment and the support!
amazing breakdown, especially the part breaking things down by region. really enjoying the content, thanks
I thought that was interesting as well. Thanks for the comment and the support!
Honey, come quick! LIMI uploaded part 2!
😂
This is absolutely nuts. You're killing the analyst game
Thank you 🙌🏼🙌🏼🙌🏼
You may have missed an opportunity to insert a smooth audio transition -Sit down Be Humble 😂
Haha this would have been hilarious!
I have an excel doc covering a large sample size from Asia & Oceania trials, with all weight divisions included. Happy to share for your reference.
Would love to compare results!
Awesome stuff Short Haired Jake! It is a Shame that you could not take a closer look at the 66kg Asia and oceania trials- David Stoil and Jeremy Skinner used straight ashi really well. Data is inevitably skewed :(
Yeah I found it pretty difficult to find individual matches and I thought if I just searched for “Jeremy skinner” then it would skew the results even more. Seemed like a lose lose situation
Great info and I love the break downs! Can’t wait for more 👊 oss
You’re the man. Appreciate all the support!
Interesting stats there, especially with regards to the relationship between the heel hook and the RNC.
However, do you think it could be argued that most leg locks occur in the first 3 minutes due to major skill discrepancies in the leg lock game, rather than the effectiveness of leg locks somehow dropping around the 3 minute mark.
My theory is that when skills in leg locks are equal, and it is unlikely that either grappler with get leg locked quickly, the deciding factor becomes the positional battle, where the RNC will dominate, since it is the most positionally focused submission of all.
I would love to see a separate video comparing the rate of different submissions, and whether the rate of sweeps and passes increases when specifically leg lockers have competed against each other.
Off the top of my head, Gordon vs Craig, Gordon vs Lachlan, Lachlan vs Garry Tonon all ended in either RNC or whoever won positionally.
I’m not saying that leg locks don’t work when both are competent, but that they aren’t any more high percentage than other submissions like an armbar.
It’s kinda like when wrestlers fight each other in MMA, they typically win through striking.
Yeah I think the skill discrepancy thing is definitely a factor. I need to think of a way to get around this. Maybe weighting the later rounds more than the early ones
Very interesting. I enjoy analysis like this. Thanks for doing the work.
Thank you for the comment and the support 🙌🏼
Would you say the three minute difference between heel hooks and RNC is biased due to the rule set and not a general statement on the effectiveness on the guard pull strategy in jiu jitsu? Like you could be passed (so wrestle up) or actually you're now incentivized to sweep after 3 mins at ADCC because now there are points.
Yeah points generally start at the 3 minute mark in ADCC so that is why I went with that distinction
Love it
🙌🏼
Why didn't you look into the European region?
Flo does not have it searchable by weight class. So I would have to search individual athletes
Amazing content. Thank you for all the work and effort you put into this.
Much appreciated thank you!
This is amazing, thanks for the hard work!!
Excited for your next instructional
Appreciate it! Thank you for the comment and the support!
Love your videos bro. Definitely a tool to help elevate my game!
Thank you! I am glad you are finding them helpful!
Not to get philosophical, but it’s really interesting that you’re kind of broaching that is/ought dilemma, but in the context of BJJ
Yeah I was thinking this too. This might be the current state of the meta in trials / championships, but where is the meta going? BJJ Heroes posted an article which pretty much says the opposite of these videos - that top position and wrestling are the way to go.
I’m personally skeptical of the first half guard pull / second half wrestling strategy - I think you’ve got a better chance being really good at either one or the other.
I’m also from Australia, and we have next to no real wrestling, but a lot of leg locks, so the comparative advantage for Australian competitors would almost always be to just learn guard play and leg locks, or move to the US lol.
I think at the end of the day as much as its interesting to think about the current meta and where it’s going, unless you have serious competitive goals, you’re probably best off just playing a style you enjoy - I really love Lachlan Giles’ style and it fits with my goals of being flexible, not having to rely on my weight, and I’m able to learn that style quite easily, even if it’s very rarely used / is very rarely successful at very high levels.
Big rant over cheers
What is should not define what ought to be
Great breakdown brother!
Thanks my man 🙌🏼
You always drop these videos on my first break at work. I love it!
Haha 🙌🏼🙌🏼🙌🏼
Dope thanks
Appreciate the comment and the support!
I think the higher incidence of leg lock finishes before 3 minutes is just because they're still new and a significant portion of the people being submitted with them haven't yet learned how to defend them effectively
Great point
I know it's not your usual content but can you do a Top 5 favorite matches from ADCC?
Oh that could be a fun little video!
@@LIMIBJJ You got to show love to my boys Cisneros and O'flanagan 😅
@@Macktube haha 💯 you already know
Do you think the dominance of taking the back means that competitions should re-evaluate whether turtling to avoid points should be incentivized? Seems like without that rule more people would accept side control instead of back exposure.
I guess I’m not really sure of the inherent strength of turtling over getting pinned and how that should be reflected in the point system.
If most wins and submissions come from taking the back through top position, and turtling is a more efficient path to wrestling to gain top position than being pinned in side control, it makes sense to turtle
It is an interesting question. On one hand you should just stand up but on the other hand you should never expose your back
do NOT forget to keep in mind that this data comes from the very best in the world. This Data would drastically change if it were done on lower ranks. If you are a lower belt dont start drastically changing your game to fit this Data, it wont work. play YOUR game, and adapt as you level up.
🙌🏼
2:20 FINALLY MY ANKLE GANG RISE UP! crazy how some of the biggest dudes I know will tap because pain is to much but small skinny guys be like "BREAK IT"
🙌🏼
majority of us probably compete in tournaments that dont allow heel hooks and cross ashi, wondering if pull guard still viable option or should 100% work on wrestling in those leglock restricted rule set.
Yeah this is interesting. I am only doing ADCC matches right now
I think the west coast has a heavier Gi scene and high levels of it which reflect in the 50/50 frequency you see in gi comps.
Interesting thought!
Great video!
Thank you! Appreciate the comment and the support!
Love the stats videos
Thank you 🙌🏼 appreciate the comment and the support!
stinky feet 🦶because of the heel hooks but this is top notch analysis
😆 thank you!
Do you think guard pulls are analogous to gambits in chess? You give up a small advantage to try to lure your opponent into traps and pathways you have set up for them. If your opponent doesn't know your specific pathways, you can win quickly.
That is a great comparison. I hadn’t thought of it like that before!
Whatever helps you sleep at night guard puller.
@@Bluis5445 Hahaha I'm learning takedowns now, because gambits ultimately don't work! I think all agressive gambits in chess have been debunked (excepts Queen's gambit which is hardly a gambit) - our sport is younger, but my theory is that the same will happen in BJJ. All guard pulls will be debunked, except maybe the judo sacrifice throws (tomoe nage, sumi gaeshi), which should be used as immediate sweep attempts.
p.s. This theory is supported by a big data and a conceptual framework, both existing only in my imagination, by the way.
I'd really love to see data on the gi worlds or similar comp
Sorry I probably wont be doing any gi comp analysis in the near future
Well for me this has turned into a statistical analysis class instead of an alive exploration of the evolution of the most contemporary submission chains..I get it..good info but if that's it then ??
I hear ya!
Cool you're are doing it perfectly..suggestion don't mention your guard passing video more than once..we are all so used to being sold shit..no need some Indian dude said "when the flower blooms the bees come uninvited" you have got it kid, blooming is on tap..,intuitive hit trust yourself don't let your girl over influence..just a feel..peace and appreciation!!@@LIMIBJJ Coll
@@brettgordhamer6914 🫡 love the comment. Appreciate the honest feedback and criticism!
Love the research you've done. Will you use this to develop your bjj game?
Yes I plan to and I will share the changes that I make after I feel confident about the finding and training methods
Heard a guy came into Craig jones gym and just ankle lock everybody. 🤔 Ankle gang rise up? Probably not. Idk why but in high level completion dudes will let there ankles break and pop. I mean I seen it 50/50where broken Ankle guy wins to get top but also seen lose because he tried to get up or go for a sub and mess up because Ankle pain gets em off
True that
The data for total amount of heel hooks or whatever you’re analyzing is going to be skewed because there were so many more matches at west coast trials than any other region. In other words, there’s going to be more inside heel hooks finished in west coast trials compared to asia/oceania trials because of the number of matches, not the style/strategy necessarily. You would have to analyze this like a ratio of matches to inside heel hook finishes.
Definitely but I was just looking at the ratio of one heel hook to another. Not necessarily the total heel hooks from each region
Gotcha. Enjoy the channel, keep it up
@@BlackBeltBriggs thanks my man appreciate it!
Under 145 has always been a guard pulling zone.
🙌🏼
Maybe a little off topic but what are your thoughts on counter-wrestling as an alternative to guard pulling (probably later in the match based on your research)? Particularly for guard players who might be able to take advantage of scrambles with both lower and upper body attacks? Looking back at old videos of Rafa, he was really good at this and I think Cole would've shown similar had he made it past Fabrecio. Seems we're very focused on becoming competent wrestlers (and rightfully so), but maybe it's worth pulling on that counter-wrestling thread a little more..
What is considered counter-wrestling?
@@LIMIBJJ darces, anacondas, guillotines, arm drags, kimuras, sumi’s or leg entries off singles and doubles. Pedro has just one of these weapons and causes a lot of problems. Also maybe instead of just sitting, pull w a snap or 2 on 1 or of from kazushi to facilitate a leg attack. Sitting guard doesn’t seem to be helping the sport but also maybe it’s a missed opportunity.
🤜🏾🤛🏾
👊🏼
I'm a returning jiujitsu practitioner after many years away. The game has evolved drastically, leg locks terrify me. What do i do?
Subscribe and learn them!
@@LIMIBJJ this is the way
@@mathew9851 🙌🏼
👊🏻
👊🏼
Amazing video as always. One question though, what is "straight ashi"?
Straight ashi is just anything where the leg does not cross your center line. So like single leg x or the classic real position is considered a straight ashi
@@LIMIBJJ Thanks for the reply. So outside Ashi, and Irimi Ashi are both straight Ashi situations correct? I cannot think of other scenarios.
@@ShahabsBJJLog exactly. And inside sankaku and 50/50 are cross ashis
👍🏻
Is there going to be a part 3 ?
I am moving onto the 77kg division but the future videos are going to be connected to this if that makes sense
lol i can’t get the difference between cross ashi and inside ashi. aren’t they the same?
Inside ashi is basically the trap position
flo doesnt even have all of the matches from oceania and asia just the 66kg finals by the looks of things. smh
🙃
Guard pull? You must drink bud light too huh.
😂
Do you think this data would be a lot different amongst weight classes?
I plan to find out but yea I imagine there will be a lot more wrestling as we go up in weight class
@@LIMIBJJ yep exactly what I kinda thought too. I wonder if those wrestling exchanges will still show to be unfavorable. Not gonna lie this video kinda blew my mind
@@ethanbuttitta1 agreed yeah it blew my mind too and I am interested to see what the numbers say for the different weight classes
Oh I can’t leg lock you? Okay back hunt time 🤠
Haha exactly!
will we be getting a 77kg analysis soon?
Yep yep! Might take a couple weeks but it’s in the works
Pulling guard should be penalized. It’s to sport specific and kills the legitimacy of jujitsu as a fighting style. At the end of the day no one in their right mind would pull guard in a street fight.
TLDR:
No.
😂
com4alg
You’re the man 🙌🏼