Join the Patreon today, get a month free trial: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson Free investor Philosophy presentation: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vrtexx5dnv06npg1oatrn/Joseph-Carlson-Investment-Philosophy.pdf?rlkey=hsyb4c3ttf6nuvo3gknteyav9&dl=0 Patreon includes: Over 100 exclusive videos, and new ones every week. Full access to Qualtrim.com, the stock analysis website I built from the ground up Transparent portfolio updates, with every buy and sell I do, as well as monthly one-pager updates. Access to the Joseph Carlson Show private discord community, with 4,500 members Try it out now with a free trial!
Not to mention that interest rate dependent businesses are not representative of the entire economy such as banks, house loans, and auto loans. The performance of these businesses cause consumer sentiment to be lower than the actual state of the economy should suggest. Which is why consumer sentiment is junk.
When I started the video, that’s the first thing I thought of and wanted to leave but in the market today, no one really puts the time and dedication the way that Joseph does in his videos, without screaming, shouting, being calm I do agree that I’d like to see some companies that I can afford to buy Cheers
@@kirillbadboykiller yes, I am very grateful for his content but it’s only been about the companies in his portfolio as of lately. Would be nice to have other stocks analyzed as his subscriber base holds companies other than those he invests in and we all value his amazing insights. Cheers.
@Joseph - thanks for the info on Microsoft huge investment. While I've been with MS for 27yrs myself ;-) and I've seen both good and bad investments ;-), this one is as you noticed is huge and will not bring quick return before it's completed and running. Therefore I've started to think to reduce my MS stock as it might mean that for the next a few years MS will have low return on this investmnet and will need to spend most of its income on it.... Thoughts ??
'Zabka Nano' in Poland runs their autonomous shops really well. Not sure if it has anything to do with Amazons technology. I think it monitors the shops inventory, and charges you once it calculates what is gone after your visit. Also, the shops are small, convinience stores (but we have a robot that makes hot dogs) .
Can you please consider taking a look at UPS now that they have won the Air Freight Contract that FedEx had for 20 years. I also heard they were planning / implementing robotics automation and new warehouse design to bring their logistics up to speed.
You are pretty quick in designating Iger as responsible for Disney underperforming Netflix. Recent findings show that light companies, the ones that do not have lot of machinery, real estate, lots of personnel are being favored by the stock market over companies that are heavier. Such as GE, Disney, Walmart, etc...
So..what your saying is..the Amazon walk out AI didn't work.so they have to cut it..not only did they spend money on ppl tracking customer but they didn't even get the AI part to work right..and now they are using a cart system! LOL
hahahahahahaha "a 1000 people from India watching you shop" hahahaha sorry but that's so freaking funny. Can i do that, then stream my self on youtube judging people by what they buy???
I don’t disagree with the assessment of missteps by Iger and Disney over the last decade +. However, the intentions of Nelson Peltz are not solely focused on “shareholder value”, he has an ideological agenda as well; otherwise I would’ve supported his position. Iger and the Disney board failed to see the impact of streaming until it was too late. I believe Iger is the right leader for Disney, for now. Peltz was not the answer.
26:00 My thought on the rates being where they're at is like is it so bad to keep it where they are at for a while and have people get used to it? Basically do nothing. Often the damage is bigger by constant interference than doing nothing.
I dunno, I think this is the worst moment to hold "good" stocks because of the valuations. Everything is so great, which makes a crash much more likely
Joseph look at Nelson Peltz losing record , including Aurora cannabis whe re I lost 60k after he came on board as a consultant with his retail experience I thought Peltz would give Aurora more credibility. Aurora tanked down to penny stock after he got involved then he bailed out. Recently the stock has started to move up. Thats just one example, I don't know why you like Peltz so much.
Joseph I definitely am a big fan of the channel and respect your opinions. However, Peltz is not good for Disney. He favors short term gains like a Carl Icahn. Peltz brings destruction to companies, you can check his returns as well as an activist. I agree Iger should go, but Peltz does not help the problem. Especially when he’s being used by Perlmutter as his proxy.
Thank you for clarifying the amazon story. Every other "reliable" news source on youtube has bought into the whole idea that people in India are actually sitting and analyzing purchases individually lol.
Young man you cannot change a person perception if they want to hear the negative. Especially when somebody’s taking something out of context just for a click. I wouldn’t waste my time, but on the other hand, you could get it click too. Keep on keeping on
Hi Joseph. Love your channel and content. Very pertinent. Small detail. It would be nice to show the return of each portfolio as CAGR to date. Thanks. Pat
One area of the market under pressure right now is the green energy financing companies using government subsidies, no one is buying those because the financing economics don't make sense for the consumer with rates so high. I agree with you, they should leave rates where they are, just guessing there is also political pressure related to those subsidies (even though fed is not political).
It’s so sad to see Disney, one of the most influential companies with some of the biggest brands in entertainment to be such an underperforming asset. They could’ve done so much better
He can sell is book better than anyone. He would probibly do about anything to sell his book. I'm glad I own some of his stocks as he does most of the work.
thanks for the great content as always! On the last point I'd say when Powell say financial conditions are tight he is not referring to the financial markets (risk assets) performance, financial condition is more to do with how easy/hard it is for companies to finance itself through loan or issuing debts for example
As a shareholder, I didn’t vote. But Disney won fare and square, and by a lot, the Nelson guy didn’t even put up a good fight. Move on. Disney has done well this year, keep up the good work, Bob😂
@@seniorkevin DIS is my new addiction, it is up ~ 20% for me, better than NFLX, I think. My long term holdings have been NVDA (by far), QCOM, TSM, TSLA and Crypto, for at least 5 years, not too shabby compared to AMZN, MSFT, or NFLX. And TSLA will NOT be in “Magnificent 7” for sure, it will be the “Great One” next 5 to 7 years. As you said, the main reason that NVDA and TSLA turned out to be 10x winners for me is that I held them for 7 plus years despite the volatility. Now, they are both house money, with a lot cash on the sideline. I don’t hate AMZN, Meta, or MSFT, in fact they may be good stocks, but they are not as good as TSLA, CRYPTO and Selected Semis from this point on. I buy and accumulate stocks when they are down, and hold them for very long time.
No link to brokerage, you can upload holdings through CSV. Most of the effort is into the stock research and analysis portion, not the portfolio tracking.
I still see it as a buy long term, but not nearly the significant value it was a year ago. I expect it to earn around $7b of FCF in 2024, which would put it at 2.6% FCF yield. That's not a super attractive yield, but also not super expensive given my overall growth assumptions. I'm personally holding.
@JosephCarlsonAfterHours I appreciate your reply. Thank you. Always great videos. I'm relatively new to investing. Current hold. Meta Amazon Google Nvidia Crowdstrike Novo nordisk Nu holdings Intuit Visa Mastercard Costco Cat Msci Lam research Kla Applied materials Apple Broadcom Microsoft Doing my best to learn as much as I can along the way.
@@davidbrown24 You do NOT pay when joining. It asks for your payment info, but your first charge will be the first of next month, giving you a 30 day trial period, if you cancel before then you pay nothing. If you forget to cancel and get charged I will also refund you.
MSFT spending $100 billion? This is the same kind of insane spending that MO did when it paid $12.8 billion to buy Juul. Such sweet heart deals go unchallenged and both CEOs (the buyer and seller) retire a few years later
Within decision analysis, we call this "costly signaling." The true beauty of AI isn't in it's costly, power hungry, chip-intensive operations; it's in hiding underpaid slave labor. That's why "automation" is so profitable. So if I can get my smaller competitors to use MORE of their resources to chase vaporware, my relative position will always be stronger. This is why large corporations don't mind legal red tape--smaller competitors can never afford to fight bigger fish in court. This whole AI heist is bait--some of the hype is deserved, but it's inevitable for corporate decision-makers to oversell the product to play games and gain advantage over the competition. AI is bait. AGI is super-bait.
This has been a great video, particularly on Disney. Couldn't agree more regarding what a disaster Bob Iger has been for Disney. All he has done is saddled the poor company with increasing debt and underperforming assets and then left the company with the village idiot before leaving, then returning to continue the train wreck.. The guy and his mirrors should be cast out of Disney effectively immediately
My wife and I cast our DIS votes with Peltz. While we know our shares are unlikely to sway the direction the vote goes, hopefully other small investors do the same and the votes add up.
Join the Patreon today, get a month free trial: www.patreon.com/josephcarlson
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Patreon includes:
Over 100 exclusive videos, and new ones every week.
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Transparent portfolio updates, with every buy and sell I do, as well as monthly one-pager updates.
Access to the Joseph Carlson Show private discord community, with 4,500 members
Try it out now with a free trial!
Have you noticed Ulta is very cheap atm-15% sellof for no reason
Hey Joseph, I think the trial link doesn't work atm is that right?
They should keep intrest rate high! it's good to get rid of zombie companies once a decade!
Not if bail outs can keep them alive😅
Honestly
Not to mention that interest rate dependent businesses are not representative of the entire economy such as banks, house loans, and auto loans. The performance of these businesses cause consumer sentiment to be lower than the actual state of the economy should suggest. Which is why consumer sentiment is junk.
Hi Joseph, I’m ready for some videos on stocks that are not in your portfolio. Thank you.
When I started the video, that’s the first thing I thought of and wanted to leave but in the market today, no one really puts the time and dedication the way that Joseph does in his videos, without screaming, shouting, being calm
I do agree that I’d like to see some companies that I can afford to buy
Cheers
@@kirillbadboykiller yes, I am very grateful for his content but it’s only been about the companies in his portfolio as of lately. Would be nice to have other stocks analyzed as his subscriber base holds companies other than those he invests in and we all value his amazing insights. Cheers.
Everyone in the disney board should be fired
The economy if "fine" ??? Wow, these money lovers are totally out of touch with the real world that most people face each day.
@Joseph - thanks for the info on Microsoft huge investment. While I've been with MS for 27yrs myself ;-) and I've seen both good and bad investments ;-), this one is as you noticed is huge and will not bring quick return before it's completed and running. Therefore I've started to think to reduce my MS stock as it might mean that for the next a few years MS will have low return on this investmnet and will need to spend most of its income on it....
Thoughts ??
Sounds like MSFT is on a META - like fantasy dream trip - until reality hits.
😮 No company and no country want outsiders in TRUMP 2024 🇺🇸
Disney went woke and pissed off most of their customers.
My 2014 GE investment went green for the first time since 2017 with the Verona split.
'Zabka Nano' in Poland runs their autonomous shops really well. Not sure if it has anything to do with Amazons technology. I think it monitors the shops inventory, and charges you once it calculates what is gone after your visit. Also, the shops are small, convinience stores (but we have a robot that makes hot dogs) .
i love Poland such a undervalued market, cant wait for the zabka ipo in the near future
Can you please consider taking a look at UPS now that they have won the Air Freight Contract that FedEx had for 20 years. I also heard they were planning / implementing robotics automation and new warehouse design to bring their logistics up to speed.
I think Nelson just isn’t the right guy for the job. Iger might have issues but Nelson is not the guy to make it better
You are pretty quick in designating Iger as responsible for Disney underperforming Netflix. Recent findings show that light companies, the ones that do not have lot of machinery, real estate, lots of personnel are being favored by the stock market over companies that are heavier. Such as GE, Disney, Walmart, etc...
So..what your saying is..the Amazon walk out AI didn't work.so they have to cut it..not only did they spend money on ppl tracking customer but they didn't even get the AI part to work right..and now they are using a cart system! LOL
hahahahahahaha "a 1000 people from India watching you shop" hahahaha sorry but that's so freaking funny. Can i do that, then stream my self on youtube judging people by what they buy???
I don’t disagree with the assessment of missteps by Iger and Disney over the last decade +. However, the intentions of Nelson Peltz are not solely focused on “shareholder value”, he has an ideological agenda as well; otherwise I would’ve supported his position. Iger and the Disney board failed to see the impact of streaming until it was too late. I believe Iger is the right leader for Disney, for now. Peltz was not the answer.
Love your videos and your qualtrim! I bought CRM
Microsoft is pulling a Meta during the metaverse craze
26:00 My thought on the rates being where they're at is like is it so bad to keep it where they are at for a while and have people get used to it? Basically do nothing. Often the damage is bigger by constant interference than doing nothing.
I dunno, I think this is the worst moment to hold "good" stocks because of the valuations. Everything is so great, which makes a crash much more likely
I don't think Disney content was the reason Netflix succeeded. Implying that it was because Disney goof is bunch of hilarious nonsense.
Which REITs run Microsoft data centers?
video was published 20 hours ago. I am in Europe clicked in your Patreon link, but it already ask 12€ er month. Did i miss the freebie?
It should say when your first charge will be, first charge should be the beginning of next month.
Disney died due to its awful supporting of inappropriate communities..
microsoft will be the future
Joseph look at Nelson Peltz losing record , including Aurora cannabis whe re I lost 60k after he came on board as a consultant with his retail experience I thought Peltz would give Aurora more credibility. Aurora tanked down to penny stock after he got involved then he bailed out. Recently the stock has started to move up. Thats just one example, I don't know why you like Peltz so much.
Vid on salesforce and google?‼️
Joseph I definitely am a big fan of the channel and respect your opinions. However, Peltz is not good for Disney. He favors short term gains like a Carl Icahn. Peltz brings destruction to companies, you can check his returns as well as an activist. I agree Iger should go, but Peltz does not help the problem. Especially when he’s being used by Perlmutter as his proxy.
Thank you for clarifying the amazon story. Every other "reliable" news source on youtube has bought into the whole idea that people in India are actually sitting and analyzing purchases individually lol.
Young man you cannot change a person perception if they want to hear the negative. Especially when somebody’s taking something out of context just for a click. I wouldn’t waste my time, but on the other hand, you could get it click too. Keep on keeping on
Hi Joseph. Love your channel and content. Very pertinent. Small detail. It would be nice to show the return of each portfolio as CAGR to date. Thanks. Pat
let me guess, Bob Igor is a zionist? lol
One area of the market under pressure right now is the green energy financing companies using government subsidies, no one is buying those because the financing economics don't make sense for the consumer with rates so high.
I agree with you, they should leave rates where they are, just guessing there is also political pressure related to those subsidies (even though fed is not political).
Thank you to break down the huge investment from Microsoft in a layman term. Another great video
Is it possible to put a feature in Qualtrim for us to compare our portfolio to the S&P 500? As if we put our money in the S&P500 at the same time.
Great video. What's the tool you're using at 4:09 to chart the Story Fund against the S&P500?
his spreadsheet
I had a CPA friend of mine create a spreadsheet. I’ve released a copy on my discord.
It’s so sad to see Disney, one of the most influential companies with some of the biggest brands in entertainment to be such an underperforming asset. They could’ve done so much better
Thank-you for the update!
will you add ideal payment?? Remove barriers to entry for the subscribers across the pond :')
Greetings from the Netherlands!
He can sell is book better than anyone. He would probibly do about anything to sell his book. I'm glad I own some of his stocks as he does most of the work.
Joe can you make a video about how to benchmark a portfolio against the S&P 500?
First
This may be their "Metaverse" moment. Hopefully, not.
Disney went woke
Disney board is incompetent. I sold after learning Peltz lost his bid.
Didney Do It
The shopping tech is further along than chatgdp and llms in general only if you understood. Lol
Could you please clarify what kind of assets are you referring to? Real estate assets or stocks?
I like to know the fund you sold Costco, do you buy other stock? If you do may I ask what stock do you buy? I’m really admired
Your stock pick!👍
I didn't really sell Costco, if you watch the first couple minutes of the video, that was an april fools joke.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours Thanks.
This is a teachable moment. If all you do is read headlines and subject banners, you are being manipulated. Not just on April Fools day.
Let's not overlook the amount of wokeness at Disney, that has to factor into the stock price too.
thanks for the great content as always! On the last point I'd say when Powell say financial conditions are tight he is not referring to the financial markets (risk assets) performance, financial condition is more to do with how easy/hard it is for companies to finance itself through loan or issuing debts for example
Why would Amazon cancel the just walk out to replace to the shopping cart system?
Cause it didn't work well.
There has to be a reason for the switch.
Nice history lesson but that still doesn't mean Disney wasn't a good buy when it was trading sideways
What about selling out of Apple @JosephCarlson?
should ask apple for 100 billion as they got that lying in their balance sheet
Aapl all the way... until it goes back to normal.
FED dove lip service is part of its financial policy.
AI Starwars? or AI Cybernet?
Excellent research. Thank you.
As a shareholder, I didn’t vote. But Disney won fare and square, and by a lot, the Nelson guy didn’t even put up a good fight. Move on. Disney has done well this year, keep up the good work, Bob😂
Keep up the good job of underperforming!
@@seniorkevin DIS is my new addiction, it is up ~ 20% for me, better than NFLX, I think. My long term holdings have been NVDA (by far), QCOM, TSM, TSLA and Crypto, for at least 5 years, not too shabby compared to AMZN, MSFT, or NFLX. And TSLA will NOT be in “Magnificent 7” for sure, it will be the “Great One” next 5 to 7 years. As you said, the main reason that NVDA and TSLA turned out to be 10x winners for me is that I held them for 7 plus years despite the volatility. Now, they are both house money, with a lot cash on the sideline. I don’t hate AMZN, Meta, or MSFT, in fact they may be good stocks, but they are not as good as TSLA, CRYPTO and Selected Semis from this point on. I buy and accumulate stocks when they are down, and hold them for very long time.
I love your channel
This isnt going to work for them
Great, thanks
markets are NOT fine...if you excluce mag. 7 from SNP its DOWN year to date...
Hey Joseph! Can I link Qualtrim to my brokerage and bank accounts?
Not yet
No link to brokerage, you can upload holdings through CSV. Most of the effort is into the stock research and analysis portion, not the portfolio tracking.
Best stock channel!
Do you still see Netflix as a buy? Higher PE but obviously has had very good returns.
I still see it as a buy long term, but not nearly the significant value it was a year ago. I expect it to earn around $7b of FCF in 2024, which would put it at 2.6% FCF yield. That's not a super attractive yield, but also not super expensive given my overall growth assumptions. I'm personally holding.
Netflix is trash. Follow globalist agenda pushing propaganda and garbage
@JosephCarlsonAfterHours I appreciate your reply. Thank you. Always great videos. I'm relatively new to investing. Current hold.
Meta
Amazon
Google
Nvidia
Crowdstrike
Novo nordisk
Nu holdings
Intuit
Visa
Mastercard
Costco
Cat
Msci
Lam research
Kla
Applied materials
Apple
Broadcom
Microsoft
Doing my best to learn as much as I can along the way.
Thank you for content
Thx for content
What “earned” you the returns was luck. You aren’t that much over S&P 500 and when there is a crash you will be back to under performing.
To the boglehead, any time anyone outperforms its luck. Any time anyone underperforms it’s their fault.
Lol
This guy is still waiting for this whole Internet thing to be a flash in the pan lol, any day now guys
Wtyd of ULTA?
Buy the dip !!
Hi. Joseph , I can’t see the free 30 day option on the Patreon page
When you sign up, look at what the day it says is your first charge. First charge is the 1st of next month.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHoursso you’re still paying when joining, but you just get a month free correct?
@@davidbrown24 You do NOT pay when joining. It asks for your payment info, but your first charge will be the first of next month, giving you a 30 day trial period, if you cancel before then you pay nothing. If you forget to cancel and get charged I will also refund you.
@@JosephCarlsonAfterHours thanks!
Are they going to change their ticker symbol to $STAR and then, after spending the first $100 bn, pull a $META and denounce their misguided ambition?
wut
@@crohmer they have every incentive to have people believe they’re spending godlike sums on the future.
Great videos, Patreon looks interesting although you should make video on what to look for when researching companies
Microsoft is so disgusting ..
MSFT spending $100 billion? This is the same kind of insane spending that MO did when it paid $12.8 billion to buy Juul. Such sweet heart deals go unchallenged and both CEOs (the buyer and seller) retire a few years later
In the last segment you said you like share buy backs. Surely that’s just lazy companies manipulating the share price
surely
You will never be replaced by AI , ENJOY EVERY MINUTE !! Grandpassees theblinking tesla
Give it up to Microsoft . They have a solid track record of flushing money down the drain .
Within decision analysis, we call this "costly signaling." The true beauty of AI isn't in it's costly, power hungry, chip-intensive operations; it's in hiding underpaid slave labor. That's why "automation" is so profitable.
So if I can get my smaller competitors to use MORE of their resources to chase vaporware, my relative position will always be stronger. This is why large corporations don't mind legal red tape--smaller competitors can never afford to fight bigger fish in court. This whole AI heist is bait--some of the hype is deserved, but it's inevitable for corporate decision-makers to oversell the product to play games and gain advantage over the competition.
AI is bait. AGI is super-bait.
Prepare for I Have No Mouth and I Must Scream IRL everyone!
This has been a great video, particularly on Disney. Couldn't agree more regarding what a disaster Bob Iger has been for Disney. All he has done is saddled the poor company with increasing debt and underperforming assets and then left the company with the village idiot before leaving, then returning to continue the train wreck.. The guy and his mirrors should be cast out of Disney effectively immediately
Unless you sold them and moved your money into palantir and nvda
It is not where you are from, it is where you are going. Disney will do well from this point on.
New subscriber on Patreon.
Need to hear your opinion on ULTA!!
He’s mentioned them in plenty past videos?
High quality company, still growing, and big buyback program.
My wife and I cast our DIS votes with Peltz. While we know our shares are unlikely to sway the direction the vote goes, hopefully other small investors do the same and the votes add up.
lol
Vanguard and Blackrock don’t care about the average investor, just about maintaining the corporate status quo.
Why not just name it "skynet" instead of stargate
Copyright.