So basically what I get from this is...We have no idea what we are doing even with all these advances in super computing. It's still all a total guess with some basic facts that are easy to guess thrown in. We can calculate trajectories so precisely that we can do a fly by of an object past Pluto where the time differences in communication are huge and coordinate all of that, but we cannot tell you if it's actually going to rain with any certainty the next day. I wish I had a job where I could predict that I could succeed with a probability between 10 and 50% at best. I could just take a lot of days off and blame it on probability. There is a 20% chance that I will get my work done tomorrow with a 50% chance that some of it will get done.
marcelhdhd 60's wouldn't have made sense translated into Celsius because 10 degrees is a much wider range in Celsius than it is in Fahrenheit. That entire section wasn't talking about a specific temperature, it was just using them as an example to show the level of precision, so they couldn't just tack on a unit with a completely different size. By the way, if you're using Celsius, you have shit for precision anyways since you units are so large and I seriously doubt your weathermen use decimals when predicting weather.
Here in the U.P., the weather is wacky, and can change drastically depending on whether you're a block or a mile from Superior, and all sorts of other things. It can be 30 F and snowing at my place, but sunny and 39 at my brother's place a few miles inland. The local NWS office actually does a great job for the insanity that is weather on a smallish strip of land between 2 Great Lakes.
In my experience, its seems American's complain about the weather people being wrong more than other places. They seem pretty accurate here in New Zealand.
One downside is the shift from manned to automated observation stations. It may sound a bit odd, but manned stations produce better data than automated stations because an observer can look to the horizon and give valuable data about what the sky looks like or describe the conditions on the ground far better than an automated station ... drizzle may not even register on some stations (it evaporates as quickly as it accumulates) and there are issues with differentiating between rain and snow. All these quibbles have gotten better, yes, but we're still not in a place where automated observations are better than people. The upside, of course, is the argument that the money saved from having manned stations is we can have more automated stations, so instead of better quality, we have better coverage.
Really, my local weather man said it was going to rain at about 3:00 pm. This was one day about two years ago. It started raining at about 2:45. That's pretty cool.
Here's my take on weather forecasts: they can predict what weather it will be with almost complete certainty. However they are still sometimes off with respect to where and when that weather will be.
Wet snow is fairly common in early April where I live. I did scream "global warming" when we had we wet snow in May last year followed by our hottest summer ever.
I listen to the local newsradio forecast, but I only trust weather.com. The morning forecaster went on a rant about how the locals know how to forecast our micro-climates and no one else can, yet she always overestimates the length of our heat waves, sometimes by two days.
Yes! Thank you for giving some love to the meteorologists! So many science videos on youtube are about space or other things, it's nice to see something about our field.
Try being a meteorologist in Oklahoma. Then every thunderstorm becomes a possible tornado. Talk about stressful forecasts. The stakes are high if you don't give the proper notice for a tornado.
My meteorologist does suck and here's why: the forecast says that the current weather outside is sunny and hot. Now I'm not blind to see that it's raining cats and dogs outside but how the hell did he come up with the idea that it's sunny and hot?
So how come today they can barely predict the weather for the next day but 15-20 years ago you could get a decently accurate forecast for the coming week!?
Meteorologist: _It is going to be 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius, you're welcome) today_ *it is 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) and raining for the next week* Meteorologist: _it is going to be 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) and raining_ *It is 86 degrees Fahrenheit and sunny* Trace: _Measuring weather is really accurate_
The number one topic of debate in most videos always seems to be whether or not they use imperial or metric. Is that a hot button issue for most people?
Evidence on how hard weather prediction can be is evidenced in history and culture too... think about how many bogus popular knowledge methods there is for "predicting weather". It just shows how hard it really is.
Is there already a project out there that tries to make a weather prediction AI? I'm guessing that this is a field where an trained AI could possibly give very accurate results in the future, given that we provide it with enough data to train and then calculate.
TreeSquared3 to do that, the AI would need to learn how to visualize the atmosphere in 3d, and understand how different atmospheric phenomena interact with other atmospheric phenomena. Plus there still isn't enough data collected to really increase the percentages. I noticed some people in the comments brought up that the meteorologist is accurate 25% of the time. Well they misunderstood what he said. They increase the percentage of accuracy by 25% with a computer model, vs just the model on it's own. Anyways I strayed off. Teaching a computer weather would be supremely difficult. Hell some people fail to be taught weather.
It still amazes me that people can complain of a luxury. We launched metal boxes chuckfull of circuits into SPACE, we use the latest technology to predict the FUTURE, and people still complain of a power akin to gods'?!
The Trinidad, CO meteorologist is sucky. Heres why. Just ask everyone my Granny. She calls me all the time telling me about his terrible forecasting. He once said "Add 4 degrees F to the forecast, and thats the high for today." I laughed my ass off.
Somebody Something i know its just unconvenient to permanently convert the units. And the "I" in "SI-System" stands for international so people from the us are also allowed to use it.
Australian weather forecast is pretty accurate... and everyone knows its a pretiction, so we wpn't get mad if its wrong... why was this video created...?
I thought the title said "Your meteor college doesn't suck" and I was like...
How did you know I went to the meteor college!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAHAH
It must be awesome to keep a job when you're right only 25% to 82% of the time
Would you rather there be no predictions for the weather? 82% is much better than nothing.
"Your Meteorologist Doesn't Suck" but i don't have a meteorologist? Was i supposed to have one?
HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAHAH
he's talking about on the news
Tell Me This 100 LIKE!!
Tell Me This you have both the comments... How is this possible?
Its The Jr it is possible because youtube lets you comment twice on videos :P
So basically what I get from this is...We have no idea what we are doing even with all these advances in super computing. It's still all a total guess with some basic facts that are easy to guess thrown in. We can calculate trajectories so precisely that we can do a fly by of an object past Pluto where the time differences in communication are huge and coordinate all of that, but we cannot tell you if it's actually going to rain with any certainty the next day.
I wish I had a job where I could predict that I could succeed with a probability between 10 and 50% at best. I could just take a lot of days off and blame it on probability. There is a 20% chance that I will get my work done tomorrow with a 50% chance that some of it will get done.
Hey, I think my local meteorologist gave you a shout out. Under rain amount it said "Trace." ^_^
Master Therion I both hate and love this comment/pun
Could you please include the metric system in your videos? I mean no one knows what 60°F means here in Europe.
marcelhdhd here you go 15.5* Celsius
turn on cc
@Gary thanks, I didn't noticed that until now :)
Jumbo-J1 that's not the point, everyone uses Celsius except for Americans and Birmanias, they should at least use both.
Just saying
marcelhdhd 60's wouldn't have made sense translated into Celsius because 10 degrees is a much wider range in Celsius than it is in Fahrenheit. That entire section wasn't talking about a specific temperature, it was just using them as an example to show the level of precision, so they couldn't just tack on a unit with a completely different size. By the way, if you're using Celsius, you have shit for precision anyways since you units are so large and I seriously doubt your weathermen use decimals when predicting weather.
well they always say it rains when it's not raining
Here in the U.P., the weather is wacky, and can change drastically depending on whether you're a block or a mile from Superior, and all sorts of other things. It can be 30 F and snowing at my place, but sunny and 39 at my brother's place a few miles inland. The local NWS office actually does a great job for the insanity that is weather on a smallish strip of land between 2 Great Lakes.
Im quite happy with modern meteorology. My Dad was a meteorologist in the Air Force in India in WWII and worked for the Weather Bureau after…
Can you please put the metric equivalent of the data you're using on the screen? Thanks
They've included the metric system in the cc. Still not ideal, but better than nothing
Alpay Demircan 60°F is like the comfortable temperature for humans
Split Shockwave bruh that's cold af. I'm in Cali. 70 F is cold.
Yeah, i know my meteorologist doesn't suck. He is just feeling a bit under the weather.
HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAHAH
You have some good comments here don't you
The V8 better go watch
Budum TSHHHH
dats gud
(both comments and vids)
I really like the way Trace explains stuff, I love this channel!
In my experience, its seems American's complain about the weather people being wrong more than other places.
They seem pretty accurate here in New Zealand.
One downside is the shift from manned to automated observation stations. It may sound a bit odd, but manned stations produce better data than automated stations because an observer can look to the horizon and give valuable data about what the sky looks like or describe the conditions on the ground far better than an automated station ... drizzle may not even register on some stations (it evaporates as quickly as it accumulates) and there are issues with differentiating between rain and snow.
All these quibbles have gotten better, yes, but we're still not in a place where automated observations are better than people. The upside, of course, is the argument that the money saved from having manned stations is we can have more automated stations, so instead of better quality, we have better coverage.
I live in AZ. My local meteorologist could say it's sunny and take a vacation for three months, and still be right.
Really, my local weather man said it was going to rain at about 3:00 pm. This was one day about two years ago. It started raining at about 2:45. That's pretty cool.
A fun quote "Climate is what we expect to happen; weather is what actually happens."
It's a probability distribution. At least for now.
Most people don't know how to read the forecasts anyway
Love the channel and love it when you talk keep up the good work.
Here's my take on weather forecasts: they can predict what weather it will be with almost complete certainty. However they are still sometimes off with respect to where and when that weather will be.
Wet snow is fairly common in early April where I live. I did scream "global warming" when we had we wet snow in May last year followed by our hottest summer ever.
They usually get the weather right in my city wich is impressive given we can go from -30C to 0 degrees in a few hours some days.
Where can i get a meteorologist and what do i have to feed it
I listen to the local newsradio forecast, but I only trust weather.com. The morning forecaster went on a rant about how the locals know how to forecast our micro-climates and no one else can, yet she always overestimates the length of our heat waves, sometimes by two days.
Yes! Thank you for giving some love to the meteorologists! So many science videos on youtube are about space or other things, it's nice to see something about our field.
no ice growing video link?
What is a 'sixty' and how can it be high or low?
Trace! Trace! Trace!
Is it possible to build a supercomputer satellite for weather forecasting something like supercomputer in the ground such as Cray XC40?
Try being a meteorologist in Oklahoma. Then every thunderstorm becomes a possible tornado. Talk about stressful forecasts. The stakes are high if you don't give the proper notice for a tornado.
Where do i go to get yer shirt sir?
To quote an old Saturday morning cartoon,
"The weather does everything but read weather reports."
I think we have the best meteorologist ever, he IS usually right 98% of the time and during april fools he wears green so we can see through him
up in Seattle Jeff Renner was the DUDE! Too bad he retired last year..
Thanks for this. As a meteorologist 3/4 of my life is listening to 'why are you paid to be wrong' jokes.
that end screen ... awesome
Luckily my meteorologist, is actually Alan Sealls from WKRG
My meteorologist does suck and here's why: the forecast says that the current weather outside is sunny and hot. Now I'm not blind to see that it's raining cats and dogs outside but how the hell did he come up with the idea that it's sunny and hot?
So how come today they can barely predict the weather for the next day but 15-20 years ago you could get a decently accurate forecast for the coming week!?
Meteorologist: _It is going to be 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius, you're welcome) today_
*it is 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) and raining for the next week*
Meteorologist: _it is going to be 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) and raining_
*It is 86 degrees Fahrenheit and sunny*
Trace: _Measuring weather is really accurate_
Am i sopposed to have a meteoriologist
The number one topic of debate in most videos always seems to be whether or not they use imperial or metric. Is that a hot button issue for most people?
My favourate weatherman is the one on BBC news Thomasz Schafernaker he is great at telling the weather
Is this a response to the Irma Meteorologist video that got viral?
Trace just proved that good shirt can be great by making it a cat shirt. I need a fuzz Aldrin shirt.
Evidence on how hard weather prediction can be is evidenced in history and culture too... think about how many bogus popular knowledge methods there is for "predicting weather". It just shows how hard it really is.
The shirt my goood! :o
yess
I know my meteorologist doesn't suck. Because he's Alan Sealls
Just ask Michael fish about the cyclone of 1987. Everyone told him a cyclone made landfall.
THIS IS AWESOME
Ok they suck less, but even 3 days out it is pretty much always a wild guess.
I mean, it seemed everyone on the internet loved that guy who got on trending
no machines can predict the weather in Melbourne (Australia) we get like 4 seasons every day...twice
The only job you can be wrong so often and not get fired.
It should be illegal to use Fahrenheit as a temperature measurement.
Dammit! Now who do I blame for the bad weather? :D
WEATHER or WHETHER it will rain
Lol, in the title it covered the k in suc so it said, "Theres a good chance your meteorologist doesn't suc."
weather forecasting in germany is 90% correct from my own experience
If they put 0.1% of the effort that is put to predict stock and foreign exchange markets...
Is there already a project out there that tries to make a weather prediction AI?
I'm guessing that this is a field where an trained AI could possibly give very accurate results in the future, given that we provide it with enough data to train and then calculate.
TreeSquared3 to do that, the AI would need to learn how to visualize the atmosphere in 3d, and understand how different atmospheric phenomena interact with other atmospheric phenomena. Plus there still isn't enough data collected to really increase the percentages. I noticed some people in the comments brought up that the meteorologist is accurate 25% of the time. Well they misunderstood what he said. They increase the percentage of accuracy by 25% with a computer model, vs just the model on it's own. Anyways I strayed off. Teaching a computer weather would be supremely difficult. Hell some people fail to be taught weather.
Thanks Trace for saying "degrees" and confusing everyone except americans.
I'm curious how satellites would work on a flat earth
Doesn't suck but definitely not someone you can trust because he keeps changing between hot and cold.
Library of what?
Meteorologists are cold reader psychics.
What happened to Science Plus? 😔
Belief that meteorologists suck stems from a poor understanding among the general public of statistics, and local news coverage maps.
"the 60's"? Are you over halfway to the boiling point of water??
Ahhhhh so computers predict the weather. So UPDATE TO WINDOWS 10 DAMNIT it always rains with a twenty percent chance
My local guy is good. He is a terrible writer though so his blog updates for stuff like hurricanes are hard to get through.
Maybe they should let us know that it is just a good guess
We still don't have satellites!
Jon Snow reference... automatic like.
0:49 60 ° wouldn't that be really hot .......
its in fahrenheit
"The weather is under no obligation to make sense to you" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
It still amazes me that people can complain of a luxury. We launched metal boxes chuckfull of circuits into SPACE, we use the latest technology to predict the FUTURE, and people still complain of a power akin to gods'?!
Wow crazy cool video
I wonder how the flat earthers explain meteorology.
The Trinidad, CO meteorologist is sucky. Heres why. Just ask everyone my Granny. She calls me all the time telling me about his terrible forecasting. He once said "Add 4 degrees F to the forecast, and thats the high for today." I laughed my ass off.
Did he just say "fam"?
Considering NASA screws with our weather
Yay uploaded im in my birthday
you mean aegon targaryen right?
could you use the SI-System like 99% of the world so that others can understand your data. thx!
Just look up how to convert the units, it's not that hard.
Somebody Something i know its just unconvenient to permanently convert the units. And the "I" in "SI-System" stands for international so people from the us are also allowed to use it.
No pun intended.
Mine doesn't suck. She blows.
New Message and you swallow
under 500k views?
Dave Murray from fox 2 St.Louis is THE WEATHERMAN for this area. It will come to pass I'd Dave says so.
I see what you did there Trace...
Jon *Snow* ... weather...
Yay Trace video hype
Seems like a thing that can greatly benefit from AI.
People still watch/blame meteorologists for the weather?? I just use google or the weather app...
Trace, youre an amazing speaker. Just wanted you to know #nohomo
I want his shirt
Australian weather forecast is pretty accurate... and everyone knows its a pretiction, so we wpn't get mad if its wrong... why was this video created...?
omg somebody this truly sounds strongly!strangecommit .
I liked this because of the Jon Snow comment haha
So being wrong is the new accurate now? Whaaat???