Board 5 is much simpler than you made it seem: just win the opening spade lead, draw three rounds of trumps and play low towards the queen of clubs. They win, and take another spade, but on the third spade you ruff in and just knock out the remaining club honour. You lose a spade and two clubs and make five hearts, a spade, a diamond, and three clubs. The point is that your club pips are so good that you only have two losers in the suit.
Brd 4: Heart to the J is reasonable, since it gains an entry in N. This way, you can pick up Ax or Axx/AJx in E (and still any Jx or AJ). I think it has better odds of making than your line, or at least it is very close. It is true that in your line you go less down when it does not work, but the other line makes an overtrick when it works. I would still pick your line, because I think in this case going less down has slightly better matchpoint equity than the overtrick. However, I just wanted to point out it is close.
Okay you inspired me to get out the suit play program and do some math to work it out and I agree it is close. My line was 32.78% the other line is 31.64%. The other factor is my line doesn't give up of the over trick I could still choose to take the heart finesse if I got some good information and felt greedy.
i Dont know who to ask for an unrelated question but here goes. I wrote to the ACBL Bridge Bulletin Letter section. suggesting a disfavor for cash prizes awarded at BBO. My letter was not published and I am wondering did I mention a taboo subject??
Board 5 is much simpler than you made it seem: just win the opening spade lead, draw three rounds of trumps and play low towards the queen of clubs. They win, and take another spade, but on the third spade you ruff in and just knock out the remaining club honour. You lose a spade and two clubs and make five hearts, a spade, a diamond, and three clubs. The point is that your club pips are so good that you only have two losers in the suit.
Brd 4: Heart to the J is reasonable, since it gains an entry in N. This way, you can pick up Ax or Axx/AJx in E (and still any Jx or AJ). I think it has better odds of making than your line, or at least it is very close.
It is true that in your line you go less down when it does not work, but the other line makes an overtrick when it works.
I would still pick your line, because I think in this case going less down has slightly better matchpoint equity than the overtrick. However, I just wanted to point out it is close.
Okay you inspired me to get out the suit play program and do some math to work it out and I agree it is close. My line was 32.78% the other line is 31.64%. The other factor is my line doesn't give up of the over trick I could still choose to take the heart finesse if I got some good information and felt greedy.
i Dont know who to ask for an unrelated question but here goes. I wrote to the ACBL Bridge Bulletin Letter section. suggesting a disfavor for cash prizes awarded at BBO. My letter was not published and I am wondering did I mention a taboo subject??
I don't think it is a taboo topic. Another spot where it might get some traction is www.bridgewinners.com
@@BridgeWithPete I tried there but got no traction. They deleted my post. Thanks anyways.