Large low like lopsided washing machine

A large low is developing around NZ this week and weekend - but it’s going to be spinning like a lopsided washing machine with a load making it spin off kilter. It means it’s a very messy forecast - one that will change further in the coming days as the centre of the low moves around a lot and changes shape. This shifts and even reduces severe risks for now.
Why so much uncertainty? Both the shape of the low and the precise location of the centre can't yet be locked in by usually reliable modelling. This is due to the precarious nature of the southerly and northerly feeds going into it - and the high pressure zone near Tasmania that could sneak in south of it all and then shut down the southerly feed.
The low may even start to push itself back towards Australia for a time - which significantly reduces severe weather risks in NZ…but then may well come back bringing another burst of rain or showers.
But the low pressure centre creates instability - and that makes this a very tricky system to be precise with, especially on Friday as rain moves further across the country.
For now, this low doesn’t look as severe as it did a few days ago - but is likely to linger with us for a week at least and so severe weather may still be in the forecast from tonight through until Wednesday of next week.

[@tonynicholson3328]

Synonyms for MESSY: chaotic, sloppy, cluttered, confused, jumbled, littered😅

[@WeatherWatchTV]

Thank you Tony, where were you when I needed you this morning!! :)

[@Brad-pv8uc]

Being a dairy farmer these in-depth weather forecast is bloody brilliant 👍

[@Roberto_Steele]

This title is as iteresting as the video itself. Thanks for the Update!

[@mariehansen2534]

Thank you for your update. Keep warm and take care.

[@bronwynsearle2117]

Lovely weather, Phil 🌞🦋

[@kevincurrie2052]

Cmon Phil, admit that the computer is confused by this one. 😂

[@WeatherWatchTV]

Haha :)

[@amandaclarke4173]

Have only recently started watching these weather forecasts and are really enjoying them. Very informative. Thanks.

[@WeatherWatchTV]

Thank you! :)

[@RaglansElectricBaboon]

Yes we've had a lot of cloud - as someone living off-grid with solar I'm feeling it!
Yuk to the coming weather too.
Thanks for the great information as always Phil & team :)

[@tlb2970]

The most reliable weather reporter ❤🇦🇺

[@ronaldneehao9723]

Thanks again for your great work Phillip 😅

[@jasondunickjd]

Auckland has a heavy rain watch issue for Thursday night, Friday to 4 pm.

[@yintotheyang6433]

I can’t get over how inaccurate New Zealand weather forecasts have been. Growing up in the islands our weather reports were always on point hours or days ahead

[@WeatherWatchTV]

That's the difference between living in the tropical trade winds (so predicable we barely do island updates for 6 months of the year) and living in the "roaring forties (the Southern Ocean) - the windiest, stormiest, part of the planet. Half of NZ is in the roaring forties so it's very turbulent airflows. Throw in some mountains a few kilometres high and you've got one of the hardest nations in the world to forecast!

[@ripoffrecords]

That low seemed pretty server from where I was standing, had to tie myself to the pier for an hour as it passed over Flinders Victoria.😆

[@Bellakelpie]

Thank goodness I'm not on a cruise ship sailing across The Ditch.😉

[@kevincudmore]

Thursday's 'system' looks a bit like a large question mark 😂

[@Dlweta57]

Hmm reminds me of a song 'outlook for Thursday'..... ' your guess is good as mine' .. Dave Dobyn

[@kroadie3936]

Thank you.

[@marisevorster1711]

Och pleeeeeze! They always chop and change. No matter what. Just can't get it right....not even 8 hours ahead.

[@Shaun.Stephens]

Hi Phil, thanks for this. I see that the blue line that, as you've said, denotes cold, dry, 'thin' air now has the number 5400 associated with it on the maps. What does 5400 indicate? Cheers.

[@jeffyoung345]

Good on ya Philip

[@Dlweta57]

Hmmm no washing then as you'll jinx the weather,, god forbid if you try to hang it on the line.. certainly will be inviting the rain if you do..

[@deanrangi9532]

So Friday precipitation accumulation shows rain forecast for absolutely everywhere apart from central hawkes bay..?

[@kevincudmore]

Hey Phil, when can we expect some snow in Queenstown?

[@charlottehoutwipper1180]

iconic title 😂❤️

[@mavisemberson8737]

Minus 5 degrees centigrade ground frost Central Christchurch bus stop circa 9 30 am . Sheepskin boot weather. Did not warm much but the sun was warm by lunchtime. Cloudy afternoon perhaps.

[@user-qm4oj3ok5q]

System Of The Falling Down...

[@geoffmccoll4640]

Getting a hat or a beeny while going out, which one will I spue into onto the way home from the tavern or pub. From Torrington NSW 2371

[@barryruss4042]

Good to see some honest down to earth weather forecasting instead of the dramatic world is ending apocalyptic nonsense from other quarters shall we say , basically we are doomed according to the other lot 😂😂😂, must be alot of pillow huggers about 😉

[@jasonpullan488]

Big waves for Aussie East coast surfies

[@nicksmile5811]

plenty of sharks and blue bottles out, too

[@danielillingworth8064]

Next update 13/6/24

[@nannynooshka8454]

Kiora Phillip

[@selwyndyer8357]

Tons of cloud should give those solar panels a rest,hi greenies you are not going to get much change from investments😢

[@galvestonbragg9718]

lmao like any of you "forecasters" ever get it right.

[@JetNorthrop-pj3yv]

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