Alabama vs Michigan - Rose Bowl- College Football Playoff Preview & Model Prediction
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- Опубліковано 18 вер 2024
- Alabama is coming into the Rose Bowl with a ton of momentum after defeating Georgia in the SEC Championship game. Michigan, led by JJ McCarthy, Blake Corum, and this boa constrictor like offense is the #1 seed for a reason. Will Jalen Milroe find enough consistency to win? Or will Jim Harbaugh's return to the sideline mark a change for Michigan's recent postseason results.
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Here is the link to the AL.com interview of us that we mentioned, which discusses why models are struggling so badly with these two teams:
www.al.com/alabamafootball/2023/12/football-nerd-explains-why-computers-humans-are-fighting-over-alabama-michigan.html
Michigan has played nothing but shit teams in a shit conference. That's how they have compiled such stats. Michigan in the SEC, has 3 loses. Alabama 31 - Michigan 13
@@JandJFarmCritters Michigan in the SEC would be undefeated.
Put the crackpipe down @@yellowblackbird9000
You my man will learn just how wrong you are Monday evening... But I wish you good luck and I hope none of your players get hurt. RTR!
@@jimharrison5376 I’m just here for the receipts 🧾.
Thanks for picking Bama guys! You did us a solid. Go Blue!
Facts - every time
GO BLUE !
You clowns gonna eat some more? You build a model and then ignore it when it picks the winner. The bias is real. Let me guess they had their signs? Player safety? What’s your stupid excuse now?
HA! These guys are always wrong on Michigan. Hater syndrome lol. That or they just don’t know football as well as they think. Likely a mixture of both.
@@sjohnson8062 they say they have picked Michigan this yr. But in the bigger marque games they pick the opponent ... even if the model has Mich favored. Not sure how I feel about them picking Mich vs Wash. But we should dominate the line of scrimmage. And our run game should be solid opening up the play action
@@blucaptain Michigan Natty Champs. They can hate all they want. Just makes them sound like they lack knowledge.
The consistency that these guys have with picking the wrong team when Michigan is playing is scary. It's my go to channel.
They just picked Michigan to win the title
I know ... I'm terrified.
If Michigan’s special teams wasn’t so sloppy after a month off your model would have been pretty darn accurate. It’s OK to pick against the SEC guys when everything says the other team is better.
They refuse. They are fake stat guys. They are just typical SEC homers with a larger vocabulary.
“Alabama has a much better offensive line than Ohio State” lol
Lots of great ones in this.
No need to do a fresh apology video for getting the UM pick wrong yet again, just splice together all the ones from the past few seasons!
There taking their time to try to spin it as, even tho they were wrong.... They were right 🤦🏻♂️ same thing happen with OSU, throw model had Michigan by 10 and they chose OSU, then made a video about how they were closer than you think 🤣🤣🤣
@@3rd_Base_InvestigatorsWhen you've got a two touchdown spread between what your "model" says and what your feelingsball picks are, you can justify any result. Really impressive!
You guys were completely wrong. Alabama's ceiling wasn't as good as Michigan's floor.
Michigan played terribly on special teams, missing field goals and dropping fair catches and they still won. You guys should have done what you usually do... Go with Vegas
There was way too much recency bias after the Georgia game
Michigan had 1 head scratcher game (Maryland).
Bama struggled with mid teams like Arkansas, Texas A&M, USF, auburn, and had a loss to boot. That’s pretty much half the season of head scratchers.
Michigan was pretty clearly the better team and last night showed it
The Michigan and Maryland game wasn't really a head scratcher if you take for instance Marilyn body bag to Auburn and the bowl game the Same Auburn team that Alabama played down to the wire the same way Auburn plays Alabama is the same way Maryland Place Michigan whenever they meet up so no it's not a head scratcher not at all
SEC fanboys doing what SEC fanboys do
I don’t mean this as shade, but it might be time to trust your model more than your eyes. The model had the score almost perfect. Go Blue.
Y’all are WRONG AGAIN!! Nothing new with you two when it comes to Michigan! Maybe you should stick with the model you worked hard on. Because it was correct
"Our model is the best ever and perfect, unless we don't like it because we're SEC fans"
Food for thought: 90% of the money is going towards Alabama... Vegas is still willing to have Michigan as a favorite.. They don't build palaces in the desert for nothing.
Your dumb
Vegas is built to win 54% of the time. They don’t make money because they hit every time on things like this. They make money because they win more than you long term. Using Vegas odds to determine your prediction in a n=1 sample size is a slippery slope. They could lose this bet 45% of the time but if they win it 55% they still make money.
Well lets see your betting slip then??😂😂
Because I got mine Bama wins this easily- if vegas favors the #4 team over the number 1 team thats a red flag😎
@@ShaunWulffGo Blue!!!!! 〽️〽️〽️〽️
@ShaunWulff Ouch lost some money huh 😂
Some haters never learn...
It’s crazy that the model was almost exactly right but you’re both just like ‘no one with eye test agrees’ and I literally thought the point of this channel was to see beyond the eye test.
Please pick Washington to win the Natty. That way you’ll be 0-3 (or 0-6 for the 2 of you), having picked OSU over Michigan, Alabama over Michigan and Washington over Michigan.
Oops, you were wrong again. SEC favoritism had you go against your own model. It was interesting to hear how you talked your way into thinking Alabama was going to win when Michigan was favored. You were also wrong about Washington and instead, chose a future SEC team too. I've noticed Josh in particular has been more biased for the SEC of the two of you. I get that they are usually "the best" but when your own model is saying the complete opposite, you think you wouldn't talk yourself out of that because of the "eye test"; AKA "bias test". Because in my "eye test" I saw an Alabama team lose to a Texas team that got beat by the "weak PAC 12" team, and an Alabama team that struggled in many games this year including a G5 and a poor Auburn team.
A game that went to overtime where we picked Alabama to win by three does not mean we were wrong. Especially not relative to our model that had Michigan winning by 11.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Michigan had so many mistakes on special teams which lead to at least 7 points if not 11 for Alabama. Play that game again (and if the refs call half the holds on Alabama’s Oline) they would win by more than 11. As of now they won by 7, which is still a net point difference of 14 points of what Josh predicted.
@@CollegeFootballNerdsno, the fact that you picked Alabama to win made y'all wrong 🤦🏻♂️
These guys are the goobers who tried to blame Hendon Hooker's injury on Jim Harbaugh based on absolutely nothing except their own delusional and then go against their own model every chance they can.
Your model was very accurate! Should have went with the model instead of making Alabama homer picks. Go Blue!
Thank you for consistently making the wrong picks on big Michigan games.
loll SEC slappies picking Bama. Who would have thought. Go blue.
Nice to see the confidence you've got in your award-winning model! Keep up the good work.
That award winning model was wrong about Alabama vs Georgia. 🤷♂️ they mentioned why it’s a little odd when predicting Alabama.
They understand their model and how it works. They intentionally don’t mess with it and use it as a tool and don’t just blindly follow it.
@lyndonyoung6756 it's because they adjust it for SEC teams....which makes no sense at all
@@thomasfrederick71I think they used it wrong this time. The model's consistency score is low for Michigan because Michigan is that good that they figure out how to win the game no matter how it has to happen, and they go do it, and that's why it picks Michigan over every team in the country. Michigan is power rated #1 pretty much universally and there's good reason for that.
Great picks guys as usual!
College football nerds doesn’t understand Michigan
Please stop picking Michigan games, you're terrible at it. Especially when you ignore your own computer model.
Oh happy day you picked bama!! Can’t wait to see Texas Michigan in Houston
When does the apology video come out this time???
They don't do apology videos, they'll make a video trying to explain away why they were wrong 🤦🏻♂️
What a game gentleman! What a game. That tipped pass to Wilson is seared into my brain.
All the uncharacteristic mistakes Mich made are burned in my brain. PTSD from the TCU game last yr
SEC SEC SEC SEC 😂
Thanks guys - been waiting all the Holidays for this one!
Came here for the michigan discounting/slighting - didn’t disappoint. Go blue!
Seeing your picks for Georgia/Alabama and Michigan/Ohio State makes me like you pick for Michigan/Alabama. Go Blue!
If u want to bet and make money put money on Alabama.
@@Chris-em1bceveryone has out money on Bama and Vegas hasn’t moved the line. That’s significant. Vegas always knows
@@JT_WallStreetwhat was the TCU Michigan line??? Lmao Vegas always knows
@@BeastReview I don’t think anyone took tcu seriously last year, including Michigan. I highly doubt that’s the case for Alabama. I really don’t think Vegas is overlooking Alabama and Nick saban the way they did tcu. Also, it took two pick 6s and some questionable calls for tcu to win by 6.
@@JT_WallStreetBama 31 cheetahs 13
Karmaz callin meeeechegen n hairbow collect son...jus sayin
I am fairly new to the channel. So I see your model picks Michigan by 11 points but you both choose Bama? Is this a common occurrence where you go against the model?
It's called Being biased, but they won't admit it.
Their channel used to be named “SEC fans”. They forever show their bias toward SEC teams, get called out for it by everyone, but try to convince ppl that they’re unbiased. It’s actually laughable at this point
Went against your computer model to pick against Michigan again I see. . . . why not just call your show "Feelings Ball"
JJ on 3rd down will determine the game. Michigan is very efficient in scoring per drive because of his ability to consistently convert 3rd down
Lmao really they were held to 4 field goals in Iowa game cause he couldn't convert 3rd and long. Same in Penn state game and Maryland 😂😂
Alabama is infinitely better and has even better 4th down conversions 😂😂
You blue fans are hilarious and I love trolling 🧌 😂😂😂
@@dakodagayne9334 Infinitely better and yet the unbiased computer model picks Michigan by 2 scores.
@@dakodagayne9334jj has also been injured since the purdue game, I believe.
Michigan has played nothing but shit teams in a shit conference. That's how they have compiled such stats. Michigan in the SEC, has 3 loses. Alabama 31 - Michigan 13
@@JandJFarmCritters While agree that Alabama wins, your B1G slur is pure crap and is baseless in a total lack of any semblence of reasoning
Model right again, nice work dorks
Michigan 34 - Alabama 24
Here's how it's going to play out: Alabama's going to have a real difficult time moving the ball on the ground.
They'll go to the air, but Milroe likes to hold the ball. Unlike Georgia and Auburn, Michigan will be rushing 4 and sometimes 5 consistently with stunts and twists. Milroe is going to want to scramble but Michigan LBs stay disciplined and he won't be able to break out.
For this reason, Bama is going to be behind the sticks a lot on 3rd down. That's where I think Bama will be good for 1 or 2 turnovers. I see Bama scoring on 3-4 possessions the entire game.
The only real chance I see for Bama to do some damage is if they run hurry up, which is not like how they've played all season.
On the flip side, Michigan will be able to move the ball against Bama. Alabama's got the two edge rushers and two lockdown corners, but this will work to Michigan's advantage.
Just like the PSU game, where Michigan averaged 5 ypc against the best rush defense in the country, Michigan will be able to run against the Bama front with draws, counters, and they will run a bunch of RPOs now that JJ is healthy again.
Through the air, Bama will try to jam the receivers at the line with their corners. I suspect Michigan will run a variety of trips, stack formations, with misdirection and motion to get their wideouts open. I expect both TEs, Loveland and Barner, to have big days.
Bama will put tons of pressure on the tackles of Michigan with their edge rushers, so Michigan counter with quick passes, screens, and roll JJ out to the boundary. Bama doesn't give up big plays through the air, but Michigan is happy to dink and dunk their way down the field. I see Michigan scoring on 6 possessions or so.
I hope you’re right. It’s hard to predict turnovers but Michigan is great at forcing them. And I’ll believe Michigan runs the RPO when I see it. I think that’s a key but will Michigan risk JJ taking hits?
Michigan runs identical offense as georgia and Bama held them to 78 yards rushing 😂😂 entire game. Stop drinking the Kool aid 😂😂
Also Iowa exposed Mccarthy. He took 5 sacks and they were held to 4 field goals cause Mccarthy couldn't convert on 3rd and long. 😂😂
@@dakodagayne9334 Michigan ran for 227 on Penn State (#2 rush defense) when everybody knew what they were going to do and couldn’t stop it, and 249 on Nebraska (#7). I’m confident they can run on anybody if they really wanted to.
@@dakodagayne9334 Georgia made some really bad mistakes. The Missed FG and fumble were unforced errors. Beating Iowa 26-0 with a 22 point spread is getting the job done bud.
Full disclosure, I'm a Michigan fan, but I fall right in line with your model with a tremendous deal of uncertainty. I will say that I don't agree with much of your analysis. I actually think there are more ways for Michigan to beat Alabama offensively and exploit their defense. Alabama has the best secondary in the country, and WR is probably the weakest aspect of the Michigan offense, so it will be an uphill battle for the Wolverines on the outside. With that said, my criticism of your analysis has almost everything to do with your focus on high school rankings. 2/3 Alabama LBs score sub 50 in coverage grade. They will not be able to man up Loveland, Edwards, Barner consistently in my opinion. Alabama has struggled against every single mobile QB they've played against, including Thorne from Auburn who isn't really that mobile of a guy. They struggled to put LSU away until they knocked Jayden Daniels out of the game. Context matters for all these games, but the Tide struggled regularly against mediocre-bad teams. 3-3 going into the 4th quarter against USF, 2 score loss at home to Texas, 6 point win at a bad A&M, 3 point win at home against a bad Arkansas, the miracle should have been loss at a bad Auburn. They beat Georgia with a beat up Bowers who got more injured in the 1st quarter, as well as Georgia's best WR. Georgia was predictively going to struggle after that.
For all of Alabama's RB ratings coming out of high school, they are just solid. None have been game breakers yet. Michigan is far superior at RB and TE and will have to utilize them if they hope to win. McCarthy is also going to have to be a threat in the run game to lighten up the box for conventional runs and play action.
And Alabama's TEs just are not great. The transfer from Maryland wasn't even the best TE on the Terps in 2022, not a good sign that he's their best TE this year. Alabama is very good, but not world beaters at WR, and goes up against one of the defensive strengths of Michigan. He was hurt much of this year, but Will Johnson was the best cover corner as a true freshman last year and has kind of reached form and may be asked to single cover Bond. Sainristil is the best nickel/slot corner in the country and is going to go head to head with Burton. Where on offense is the Alabama advantage? Milroe is certainly going to be a challenge, but he can also be confused and take big sacks as he's slow to process coverages and go through his progressions while also depending on his athleticism to get him out of jams, causing him to hold onto the ball too long.
The other weakness of the 'Bama defense is they're only okay on the interior of the DL, and get virtually no pass rush from them. Michigan is going to have to churn out production in the running game and stay out of 3rd and long as it just isn't likely they're going to be able to handle the Alabama pass rush. Michigan has 3 ball hawks in the secondary and a tremendously complex scheme and I think are likely to force multiple bad decisions for Milroe leading to TOs. Obviously Michigan has to relatively contain Milroe, but I don't see another player on that offense making a bunch of huge, explosive plays. Michigan, conversely, can get a few from favorable matchups on wheel routes with Edwards or Loveland or Barner up the seam. Also I think conventional running between the tackles factors Michigan, and they'll be able to play more manageable down and distances.
Give me Michigan 27-16.
The way I see it. Blake Corum will score twice, JJ McCarthy will account for one score as well. Michigan's defense will account for six points either two field goals or a TD. That is 27 points for Michigan. Alabama's defense will account for zero points. Alabama's offense will not score two touchdowns on Michigans defense. 27-13 Michigan. Love from Tennessee.
The biggest question IMO is are the defenses in the B1G so good that it’s making their offenses look bad or are the B1G defenses looking so good because as I suspect their offenses are terrible.
I watched SEC games and didn't see anything particularly magical about their offenses. I watched the SEC 'ship and saw extremely bad play from the UGA LBs though. There's one play where the outside LB literally runs the opposite direction the ball is going and the Bama RB has no one to get past - just empty field.
Offenses are terrible, just look at Penn State and Iowa their 3rd and 4th best teams…
Michigan and Ohio State are competent offenses, maybe Maryland too. Beyond that is hard to watch…
@@MoneyIsSilver If you are talking about Jam Miller's wheel route TD, it wasn't a mess up by Georgia it was a well executed pick play by Bama.
Robbie Outz, the 6'4" 260 pound brick shithouse of a TE for Bama, runs his route and jams the Georgia secondary. Which allows Miller to just trot into the endzone.
@@MoneyIsSilver This comment isn’t about the SEC. It’s about the BIG Ten. The big ten as a whole is trash, zero offense. It’s easy to look dominant on defense when the opposing team can’t move the ball.
@@CrashB111 Um, no. Watch #24. Why does he suddenly take off to his left? There was no one that wasn't already covered. Someone was confused.
Guys you’re amazing! I have been refreshing your page waiting for this one!
Hey Nerds, a pretty annoying echo starts at 40:26
That's just them talking
Thoughtful analysis as always, Gentlemen. I totally agree that the data and our eyes tell 2 different stories. As a Michigan man and fan, I am fascinated to see how much we learned from the Georgia game 2 years ago about matching up with elite SEC speed and strength, across roster. I know the Georgia reference versus Alabama today is not perfect but I think the general analogy works. We need a 2022 Columbus-type game from JJ, with no turnovers and LOTS of catches by Loveland and Barner. Should be a great game! #GoBlue #Rollthetide
Thanks! We ended up putting together a twitter thread highlighting just how utterly different the B10 and SEC are, statistically, and how impossible it makes it to compare these two teams on paper. You really *do* have to rely on the eye test to figure this game out.
I mean, that Georgia team had the best front 7 in the history of CFB. That was a bad matchup of epic proportions for Michigan, who in 2021 needed to dominate in the run game to be successful even more than the '22 and '23 teams. This Michigan team is far better and this Alabama team is not remotely similar to '21 Georgia other than the conference they play in. Should be a good one.
@@CollegeFootballNerds eye test tells me that Mich won by 7. Model/eyes gonna say now that Mich still hasn't played a good offense and right there defense off again ?
@@CollegeFootballNerdsYou guys need to get your eyes checked.
Osu vs Michigan, yeah we're going against the model. Bama Michigan, yup going against the model again. Clowns.
I feel like you hit the nail on the head. Its consistency vs explosiveness. Bama has all the potential but if they get behind early i think Bama loses
Bama was behind in just about every game this year I think they have enough on offense to come out of a hole
@@gelato3299exactly bama was down at half to Tennessee and A&M
Yeah, original post has this backwards. If Michigan falls behind early they are cooked. Explosiveness allows teams to come back when they are in holes…
@@kelseywatson9990 So they came back against two crappy teams, but let an even worse Auburn team come back on them from 14-0.
Bama if you know Alabama is a 2nd half team
If Daniel is correct on his prediction, that would be 3 straight games that Bama will have won 27-24. What would be the odds of something like that?
Y’all hated so hard all year. I know y’all are scared to post a video. Accountability is a bitch ain’t it😂
Love the channel, guys! I hope your picks are wrong and the model is correct, just like occurred with The Game predictions. 🤞🏼🤞🏼
I think this is a great matchup for Bama. After seeing how Bama was able to dominate the line in against Georgia, it sets up well against Michigan. If Bama can stop the run like they have been even with a smaller set, and put this game on their QB, I feel really good about this game. Tide by 14
Well that tends to happen when you lost your best tackle on the first drive. Also Michigan has better DT's.
It’ll come down to the outside run game for Bama and Milroe taking care of the ball. Definitely won’t be a two score game. Best of luck
I like how you don’t account for Michigans defense at all 🤣🤣🤣
@@Potus_313 it’s hard to gauge because I don’t know how they will account for Milroe. That’s a big hang up for me. I know they have a great pass rush, but Bama has faced great pass rushes and been fine. Milroe is almost better with less time. First read or run. Are they going to spy? Are they going to rush? Could go many different ways, but it will all be to account for Milroes legs. Don’t forget, Jace will be back and he can squeeze through any gap.
I feel the Opposite actually I think this is a great matchup for Michigan the defense Michigan runs is ravens esque and everyone knows the ravens defense eats first time starting qbs (to put it the nice way) and bamas best part of their defense the corners will be irrelevant because Michigan throws to the tight ends a lot
The SEC is built on making mismatches and athletic strong defense. Michigan is a tuff team but not sure they have the horses to go 4 quarters against possibly the most athletic team in college football. We will see. Im sick of talk. Ready to see these 2 settle it on the field!
the most athletic team in CFB was FSU just FYI. The only team that had the team speed to deal with Jadyn Daniels.
@@MH-0101 Lmfao If they played right now LSU would beat their ass.
@MH-0101 yeah ok on that .....alabama is probably the most athletic team I have ever seen .....it's the only reason they are in ....fsu had a solid defense is literally the only thing they had ....
@@crimsonkings205 Note that I used past tense....
@@CharlesBradley-wm1qy I suggest you watch the FSU defense play Jadyn Daniels and then watch the Alabama defense play Jadyn Daniels. FSU's defense is so much faster and more athletic than Alabama is comical. That said, Alabama is the better defense.
Just had to click the video to inform you nerds have lost the right to talk about Michigan after all the times you picked against and or been wrong about Michigan.
And wrong again haha
Something about the CFB Nerds picking against Michigan makes me slightly more comfortable lol. I do have plenty of concerns about Michigan's offense passing the ball granted.
I knew it made me feel more comfortable for a reason lol
Model did well. Trust your model.
If Daniel is correct, this would be what? Our third straight 27-24 ball game🤣🤣
Never the less, we've heard this several times before. "If X hangs 30", "If X hangs 40", "If it becomes a shootout" Bama could be in trouble. I'm not super concerned w/that anymore. They battle tetsed. They've shown they always have a 🤏🏼 extra, if necessary.
I actually feel pretty comfortable in this match-up. I think Bama's defense is the absolute winner. And quite frankly? I don't think Michigan has much in the offense department either. Not by comparison, that is. I feel both sides of the ball favor the Tide in Pasadena.
However... B'ham Alabama born and raised. So maybe there's a bias😉
We can NOT however, allow them the same liberty on the ground, as we did Freeze and company a few weeks back. See what I did there? Liberty. Freeze. And such.
I'm gifted🤣🤣🤣
Happy Holidays, err'body.
27-20
Vegas is for gambling, not predicting. Vegas picked up on the emotional betting that would happen for Alabama and feelings off what a great program they have been for over a decade. The computer models pick Michigan by 10 because they take the feelings out of it. Although, computers fall short on analyzing changes that Alabama went through in certain games. Michigan by 7.
Can I get my apology now?????
I told u to listen to ur model.
Michigan played like crap and still won. I told u. Jalen Milroy is not a good QB. He's a runningback playing QB
Our model was literally wrong. We picked the game better than the model, you realize that right?
@CollegeFootballNerds negative. The model was off by 3 pts
Josh was off by 10
Daniel was off by 14
And if Michigan throw away 4 pts, the model was spot on 🤷🏿♂️🤷🏿♂️🤷🏿♂️
@@CollegeFootballNerdsYou literally picked the wrong winner. How is that better? I thought picking the winner was the whole point.
Diehard Michigan fan. The history of Michigan not playing well in bowl games scares me. But this is the best QB and Defense Michigan has had this century. JJ is 25-1 as a starter, I believe he has the ability to execute at a high level vs anybody. We’ll see on 1/1. Go Blue!
Milroe has 6 sacks entire season.
Mccarthy took 5 sacks in Iowa game and they were held to 4 field goals. This is exact same 🗑 team as past 2 years. 😂😂
6? Try 38 sacks this season… so far
@@dakodagayne9334 Milroe plays defense too? What can’t he do?
@@dakodagayne9334 Check your numbers, Milroe was sacked 6 times against A&M alone, over 30 times for the year
@@dakodagayne9334 I think you might be incorrect. Can you show your math on the Milroe sacks?
Change your name to the SEC football Nerds. Michigan comfortably. Go Blue!
SEC homers try to make it seem like Vegas likes Bama here. They have taken on 80% of money on Bama at + odds and not moved the line an INCH. That is how you see who they like.
The CFB Nerds even breakdown why that's not the case. Computers love Michigan, because Michigan played a 1 game season against OSU and ran up the score against high school teams the other 12 weeks.
Yet nobody looking at how the two teams are playing at the end of the year, sees that.
@@CrashB111bama also played hs teams and performed poorly. They are worse in almost every metric. Zip it up when you are done, good boy.
Moved from 2.5 to 1.5 iirc
@@CrashB111 I think you mean the Nerds give their best guess why that is not the case. They don't break it down as that would suppose that they know the answer. Which they don't.
@collinbrennan5655 Michigan will be hanging on for life till midway through the 3rd quarter then bama will put it away ....30 to 17
Michigan is who people thought Georgia was. Great D line, depth across both lines with alot of guys getting drafted in April on the defense.
I would take Georgia to beat Michigan by 2 touchdowns.
So now that Alabama beat Georgia there not really good.
Your as goofy as they come Georgia has better players in every position.
Quit lying to yourself I know it makes you feel better saying that ignorant statement.
Alabama also has better players the Michigan in every position.
Michigan fans will never learn I guess your a Michigan fan.
If not your still wrong Georgia I believe if they had been put in this playoff could win it all.
But Georgia isn’t any good because they lost to Alabama.
When Michigan loses to Alabama that will not mean Michigan isn’t any good it will mean Alabama is just better.
Alabama will win.
@@chadmilligan342 Who hurt you?
@@122smh Intelligent reply
@@122smh It will be proven on the field .
Alabama will win fairly easy.
Paper doesn’t win games I know Michigan fans thinks that way.
@@chadmilligan342so much for that huh? Did you see how that Michigan defense handled Milroe and your pass protection? 6 sacks. Y'all were outplayed for 3/4 of the game despite Michigan making every special teams mistake possible, and in the one quarter that you guys were the better team only got you a TD because Semaj Morgan dropped a third down catch to give Alabama another short field to work with. Had Michigan played a clean game like they had done in 12 of the other 13 games this season, Michigan wins by 10+ in regulation and Alabama doesn't even reach 17 points.
Michigan will have to disrupt milroe like Texas did to win. Milroe’s on the move passing is mediocre. However Michigan’s offense is bland and relies on the run a little too much for me to think they can score much in this one.
27-17 tide
@WOODLASEI don’t know if milroe has evolved as much as people think. This whole “bama is different now” is blown out of proportion. Yes they are better. They also haven’t sent anything near a Texas D line since Texas. It may be that bama is only somewhat better and milroe reverts back to a panic mistake machine if he gets pressured on 25 downs in a game. Fortunately for them now Michigan can’t provide the offense to beat Bama.
@WOODLASE JawGa Lolol. That’s a good one. I still think Texas can. Texas is the most well rounded team and has the speed to take bama deep and the line to kill their run game. I think we will get a chance to find out. I will say that beating a team twice in a season is hard and that bothers me as a Longhorn fan. Milroe is undoubtedly more developed. He and Quinn will be in the NYC next season. I hope bama beats Mich. can’t stand Harbaugh.
@WOODLASE haha. Hairball. Yeah can’t say I’m shocked at the outcomes but my picks were bad. Bama still has a ways to go and Texas’ coaching was horrid in my opinion. Texas’ athleticism was not put on display and bama has no push up front. I think wash will win if they can play like that. However maybe Mich can get the pass rush that Texas never had. I’m afraid for my horns that they are gonna take a step back next year and now I gotta listen to BlowU fan for an entire off season………..
@WOODLASE you wouldn’t believe this but I’m from Texas and now live in Norman………lol. I think OU will eventually be okay. I think venables can do a good job. I’m very familiar with OU and their past staffs living here and all that. I do think Texas is ahead of the curve though. The recruiting has been good and I haven’t seen trench play like this since the 2000’s. I think OU is further behind Texas than they realize in many ways. They have been better for a while now and the shift will take time to set in.
I’m very curious to see who Bama hires after saban. I wonder if they will give Dabo a look. I don’t love the guy but maybe a good cultural fit for Bama and I still think he could do a good job at a place with Bama’s resources. I don’t think they do a Kiffin type thing.
Next year
Texas 11-1
OU 7-5
To be fair OU has a horrendous schedule. Texas does not.
If Alabama shows up Michigan doesn't have a chance! The QB's play & WR's play from Michigan is weak! Advantage Alabama!! Stop the run Alabama win, Alabama is way more talented top to bottom than Michigan!
Guess their talent took the day then huh?
You're not talking about sign stealing because Michigan is 6-0 and 4-2 against the spread without it. The haters have all shut up since Michigan beat OSU, which you two predicted wouldn't happen!
If you talk about the big 10 offenses being down as a whole, then you have to look at how it could inflate each teams defensive stats
I think this is the case. When offense is bad even a bad defense can look decent because the offense has to execute before the defense is forced to. Who has the big 10 played out of conference that is good offensively and demonstrated that their defenses really are that good?
@@thomasfrederick71 Just look at the NFL talent on Michigan. That tells you everything you need to know. It's an elite defense regardless of competition.
Offenses were really bad in the big ten. OSU pretty well spotted UM 14 in that game. While OSU proceeded to trip over their own dicks all day on offense. When you consider those facts it doesn’t look good for Michigan. Also I think losing Zinter is going to really hurt.
That being said, UM is probably the most consistent team in the country. Unfortunately they seem to be more of a sit and wait for a highly talented team to make a mistake. I don’t like their chances if someone makes them take risks.
@@MH-0101 but are they really tested?
If you want to base it on NFL talent you might want to look at Bama. Bet more players get drafted from the Bama roster than the Michigan one.
@@thomasfrederick71 I've looked at the nfl talent on all the top 10 teams. Alabama does not have as many guys across the 22 starters that will get drafted as Michigan will. What they do have is more high end Wide Receivers. Are they tested? eh, Ohio State's offense is on par with Alabama's but tbh I would say neither OSU or Alabama have an offense that would truly test you.
Big game and the Model picks Michigan, the nerds pick against. Gee, where have we seen this before? Over, and over, and over.
I think Alabama handles this comfortably by 2 scores. 28-17
I think not
@@BigBlue-jh8wu the only way Alabama loses this is with turnovers.
Nobody has scored 28 on Mich all year long. Not happening on Monday either.
Never speak on college football again especially anything about Michigan
The reason that the “eye test”says this will be closer than what the computers say is recruiting rankings from nerds at 247 and On3. Period.
PRECISELY the same prediction when Nerds picked OSU > MI - got 2023 wrong - plus THREE years in a row. Maybe tell what AL does better than then FPI #1 OSU, if anything.
We’ve been wrong on The Game three years in a row (actually longer than that - we had picked Michigan to upset OSU prior to the series flipping). But we’ve also largely nailed Michigan games otherwise, especially in the post season.
Deep balls, pprotection, secondary, run stopping etc etc
Ohio sts offense stunk this year other than for Marvin Harrison Jr.
Michigan cheated for 3 years and had all the big 10's signs and plays but when they go to bowl games they get smoked cuz they dont have the plays ahead of time. Cant cheat past alabama. Bama wins easily 45-16.
@@biztranfsbothis seems a hate filled angry post - inconsistent with assessing anything - or what junior personnel receive or should receive in NCAA supervised training - OSU/AL anti MI hatred on full display - despite OBVIOUS FORECAST ERROR by this channel in its repeated against MI picks proven wrong just weeks ago.
The SEC went 7-9 in non-conference games against power 5 teams. It is objectively a worse conference than the Big Ten by SP+ as well. These guys are so out of touch.
That stat is ignorant because it’s not set up best vs best.
But it depends who is playing who. The ACC is pointing to their 6-4 record vs the SEC, but if you look at the matchups, the ACC should have gone 7-3. In most games the SEC was a definite underdog. Take out the ACC games, in which the SEC did better than expected (IMO), and apparently they are 3-3 in their remaining OOC P5 games. And I'm not making excuses for the SEC; I'm a B10 fan. I think the B10 was pretty much awful this season. Though I was impressed that NW beat Utah.
Purdue scored 2 touchdowns against Michigan and they were 2-6 team lmao. 😂😂
Any team in sec would blister michigan.
The SEC beat twice as many p5s OOC with a winning record as the B1G
Michigan's weak schedule comes back to haunt them in this game. Bama 27, Michigan 17
We ended the season playing 2 top 10 teams and 3 top 5 defenses in a row. What?
Bama plays FCS schools in November
@@matt_greene the entire big 10 is trash
Michigan cheated for 3 years and had all the big 10's signs and plays but when they go to bowl games they get smoked cuz they dont have the plays ahead of time. Cant cheat past alabama. Bama wins easily 45-16.
@@matt_greene name the notable offenses those top 5 defenses faced, and how they faired against them.
Love this insight as a Bama fan. I don’t envy y’all’s position trying to pick this one. Turnovers are nearly impossible to predict.
I think this game comes down to mistakes/discipline. Bama has been mistake / turnover prone. As well as penalty ridden at times. That said, a clean game without multiple turnovers favors Bama. If they play their game, they win. Turnovers and special teams rule the day. Bama 23 - Michigan 16
ST mistakes by Mich (completely uncharacteristic all yr). What a crazy game. Defense won the game ... a defense that hasn't played anybody with a pulse all yr tho
love when the nerds pick against UM
Michigan's consistency is not just on offense or defense, it's special teams as well. Michigan is the least penalized team in the country. Michigan is top 5 in the country in turnover margin. Michigan isn't explosive or fancy about what they do, they are just what Joel Klatt said they were weeks ago, a boa constrictor. For Bama to win will require their entire team playing at its absolute best and i don't see that happening for 4 qrtrs. Ohio State had more talent and explosiveness than Michigan and how did that go?
perhaps when your model is favoring Michigan, next time, you should go with the model and not the "eye test". I mean, I thought thats what this show was all about?
How often do you guys pick a team favored to lose by double digits in your model?
The model had Georgia an even bigger favorite. Also favored LSU over Bama. It unduly hates Alabama.
This model is so fucked. I saw the prediction, and that’s all I needed to see. I, literally, laughed out loud. 🤣🤣🤣
They aren’t given the opportunity to often because the big games usually don’t have model outcomes like that and they usually only do 3 games a week during the season (model also doesn’t start until week 5). They explained what they see happening in the model very well this episode and why they aren’t going with it.
Finally been waiting for this breakdown yeah
Anddddd wrong again…color me shocked…sec slappies
Michigan’s been so consistent and dominant this season that I feel bad picking against them but I think Bama is a particularly bad matchup for them due to Milroe’s uniqueness as a player. I think Bama wins 23-21 and probably ends up winning the title, if Georgia couldn’t stop them I don’t know if anyone can.
I respect this opinion because you actually gave a reason. Georgia fans continue to impress me compared to Bama fans
@@lebrinjims3580 #19 🏆 👀🐘 LANK
Consistent throughout? No. As soon as the cheating was discovered, UM stopped being super elite per the stats, and were much more of a “good team”.
Look at the Iowa game.
That’s more like the offensive stats for this game.
Michigan cheated for 3 years and had all the big 10's signs and plays but when they go to bowl games they get smoked cuz they dont have the plays ahead of time. Cant cheat past alabama. Bama wins easily 45-16.
milroe is....ass
Good old SEC nerds
RTR 🐘
Go Blue!!!!! 〽️ 〽️ 〽️
The defenses in the B1G are better than the SEC, which is why offenses aren't generating so many explosive plays.
What you been drinking?. Its the big 10. There is nothing in the Big 10 that is better than the SEC. It has been proven over and over. Im talking big boy vs big boy.
@@tonyharbour5317
27-20
@hometown1474 I tried to tell them. Now they're wondering how Bama couldn't generate explosives 😂
Didn’t their model have Alabama losing to Georgia by 10 and Washington losing to Oregon by 10 as well?
Probably had them losing by 10 to Texas also. Oh, that’s right, that actually happened.
@@AutumnAllynthat has nothing to do with this game. Even Ray Charles can see this isn’t the same Bama team as in week 2.
Yeah. They also didn’t mention that Georgia only started moving the ball consistently when McKinstry went out with a concussion. Alabama was going to win in a blow out with him healthy
@arubial1229 ray Charles could see michigan dominated alabama offensive and defensive line.
Alabama is no more talented than Ohio State this season. The only difference is that their inconsistent quarterback just had a higher ceiling than Ohio State’s. I love how everyone just erased that atrocious game against Auburn like it never happened. A miracle last second TD pass is the only reason they are in the playoffs.
Michigan has played nothing but shit teams in a shit conference. That's how they have compiled such stats. Michigan in the SEC, has 3 loses. Alabama 31 - Michigan 13
I’m assuming you didn’t even watch the Bama Auburn game, if you did you’d factor in the fact Bama had 3 TDs removed due to bone head penalties. Game should’ve never even been close.
Bama is heads above OSU in talent. Michigan as well. Keep thinking that. Michigan will not be able to match Bama in speed and talent. Yeah. Keep thinking that.
There's no thinking. . . . It's factual . . . .Bama curb-stomps Michigan 31-13 @@tonyharbour5317
@@tonyharbour5317you were saying?
Why have a model if you always pick against it when it comes to Michigan? It makes your takes just like everyone else’s! Everyone is picking Bama! You guys are cowards.
We picked Michigan in 3 of our last 4 videos featuring them, prior to this...
Taking Michigan against Iowa doesn’t take courage. Fundamentally, you really believe Michigan derived a lot of value from “sign stealing”. You thus discount your model against good teams. We’ll see what happens but if you guys don’t actually use your model then there is no reason to listen to you or to call yourselves “College Football Nerds”. Either use your model or change it.
We both took them over Penn State, too…
PJ Fleck said that Michigan was the best team he’s ever coached against
Curious.... wonder why
PJ is an idiot
@18:40 He's forgetting one MASSIVE season ending injury; Zak Zinter. This Michigan O Line is not anywhere near the "beat version of itself" even after a month off.
Other than that, I agree, the nicks and bumps should be healed up on both teams.
Looking forward to your video, Caught on to you guys after the Iron Bowl, enjoyed everything I've seen so far. Keep it up
They’re the best and I look forward to their videos every week. Only thing “wrong” with these guys is that they have successful personal careers (outside youtube) and happy family lives so they can’t make more content 😂
😊.. 27-20. Go Blue!
40 minute bama homer cope session to justify throwing out their own models. dont waste your time watching this channel any more
Hello?
Hello?
Michigan fan here, anyone home?
Hello?
I think michigan matches up against Bama similarly to texas so this will be a good matchup. Michigan 27-24.
Just because the Big Ten doesn’t complete as many downfield passes doesn’t mean they can’t defend them. It might even mean they’re better at defending them.
What quarterback and receiver combo do they have that can threaten it in the first place. Maybe Ohio State but clearly they didn’t like his play at QB.
Alabama has the best cover corners jn the country to practice against. Georgia might be second at that position. Yet teams can still pass on them better than the big10. For you to be right you’re basically saying all the NFL draft guys have no idea what they’re talking about or that the SEC defensive coaches are just wasting talent.
@@thomasfrederick71you guys all really underestimated Michigan's secondary. I'm not sure why (other than blind SEC bias), it was built to defend the suckeyes with CJ Stroud at QB. And while Alabama was held to 116 pass yards by that secondary, Michigan had 221 on 27 attempts and won the game. It was Michigan's offense that was more dynamic and had a counter punch to everything Alabama could throw at it.
@@johnwatsoniv384 the bigger issue for Alabama was the O-line not picking up the pass rush in the first half. Milroe didn’t have time to get the ball downfield on most of his drop backs. They blocked much better in the second half but kept screwing up their snaps and stopped themselves at that point.
When 7 of 13 Teams you play Don't have a winning Record and another 2 are 7 - 5 and one is Bowling Green you have had a very light scheduled to make your Stats better than what they really are. 3 Teams you played with a Pulse you won by single digit. Don't think this is a good match up for Michigan. 31 - 20. Also doesn't help that Michigan is 0 - 5 against there last 5 SEC Opponents in Post/Bowl Games with average margin of loss of over 2 TD's.
You mean half the teams an undefeated team played had a losing record? Crazy 😂
I don’t care too much about W-L records. Quality metrics aren’t perfect, but they’re better. In that regard, it’s concerning that Maryland is your 4th best game when they’re tied with Auburn in most major ratings.
Michigan cheated for 3 years and had all the big 10's signs and plays but when they go to bowl games they get smoked cuz they dont have the plays ahead of time. Cant cheat past alabama. Bama wins easily 45-16.
@@PurpleHazeVanNederlands Let’s also factor in Georgia has a far superior passer than Michigan. If JJ can’t throw it to win, which he won’t, it’s night night for Michigan.
You know Michigan beat Bama and won the Natty right?
Yeah the 2 spy thing definitely worked lol.
Milroe took 4 sacks, went 13/23 passing, and had his lowest graded game of the season per PFF.
UGA didn't lose that game because Milroe "balled out"
They lost because they couldn't pass protect Beck after Mims went out, and because they rushed for 73 yds vs Bama's 114 as well as very poor offensive playcalling for the majority of the game.
No. They lost because they were out physicaled (spelled wrong), out coached, and outplayed in general. Didn’t matter how many passes Milroe completed either. He ran for 70-80 yards as well. He made completions when it mattered.
Except for the most important reception that really wasn’t but unreviewed - the 4th down call that gave the huge momentum before half.
If M scores 30, they win.
I hate say it but I agree…. Lank
What if they score 31?
@@MH-0101 🤣 fair. If they score 31, all bets are off. 🤣🤣
I bet Michigan doesn’t even get to 20.
@@crimsonkings205 I think that’s fair
Both picking against Michigan is clearly a good sign. 30-27 Michigan
Yup. Everyone and their mama are on bama yet vegas still favors michigan. Gimme the wolverines by 4-7 pts
@@mcr969Bama has only lost once in the past 15 years when Vegas has them as the underdog. (Georgia NC ‘21). They’ve won every other game as an underdog by double digits.
But good luck.
Neither team is scoring anywhere close to 30 pts.
Michigan cheated for 3 years and had all the big 10's signs and plays but when they go to bowl games they get smoked cuz they dont have the plays ahead of time. Cant cheat past alabama. Bama wins easily 45-16.
@@lexerdaniel4843
😂 Milroe is about to go Superman against the posers from the little 10. They won’t come close to stopping that man.
You guys don’t have to apologize to Michigan fans for saying this or that team is better in this or that or overall areas than Michigan is. I don’t remember you guys ever giving Michigan a chance in hell in beating even a 12 year old and under powder puff team. You can take your X’s and O’s analytics, your schemes and matchups and horde them like coins of gold. You can’t take into consideration the intangible factor. All I have to say is how many times have you picked against Michigan? And how did that work out for you? Yes, it’s going to be a dog fight. It’s going to be ugly. But Michigan has the will to win. They beat top, elite defensive teams like Ohio State and Penn State without the benefit of a head coach. They played fully half their season without a head coach. That’s not for nothing, fellas. I don’t have a score prediction, but there is no way that Michigan is losing this game. Take that to the bank.
Go Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
Hello 🎉 you guys going to upload another video about being wrong?
My biggest concern about this matchup, is how will Michigan generate offense. Michigan's pass game has been pretty bad recently, to the point where JJ McCarthy has only thrown one touchdown pass in their last 5 games, not ideal. Although Bama's offense has a propensity to stutter, I think they'll still be able to score 30 on this Michigan defense, really the only way I see Michigan winning is if they're ground game comes alive and they run the ball the same way they did in years past.
I predict Bama to win 31-20
he was injured, for all those games, and they only ran what they needed. and they also didn't have their HC for any of those games excpeet for Iowa but he still made incredible throws agsitn OSU and IOWA
And will the ground game come alive without UM’s best player on offense, OG Zinter.
Go look at the teams Bama has scored 30 against (hint: no one notable)
@@Johnadams20760 Still don't see how they'll score consistently against Bama, Michigan's receivers can't separate enough and there's very little explosiveness in that offense to begin with.
@@malaymody6819 Bama can be inconsistent but they're still better than Michigan in this matchup
I'm going with Michigan. I think with a healthy JJ Michigan's passing game is significantly better than most think. I haven't seen any commentators really talking about how Michigan's passing game looked completely different before JJ was injured in the Penn State game. It's mostly just been talking of Michigan being one dimensional. Bama definitely has the talent edge but Michigan has the edge in terms of depth.
Michigan has played nothing but shit teams in a shit conference. That's how they have compiled such stats. Michigan in the SEC, has 3 loses. Alabama 31 - Michigan 13
>they both picked Bama
Totally unsurprising.