Interesting to hear your guys SEC perspective. A lot of people seem to discredit Michigans players and continue to credit coaching, but Michigans D-line was better, Michigans O-line was better. 10 TFL’s to 1 TFL is dominating the LOS. Michigan had the better QB play, and you could argue Michigan had the better secondary.
every single show these guys start with “we picked the game wrong, but we weren’t actually that wrong even though we picked the complete wrong team to win and here’s why”
These two idiots just can't get off the "if this WOULD have happened"....this should have been....if Alabama did this, it could have....well, it didn't. We want to listen to reality... not fantasy scenarios....these two men just can't help themselves
Totally agree but I still like listening to these guys cause they still go more in depth than a lot of other channels even if they’re always wrong lol. But yeah I don’t care for the explaining away your bad pick that’s just dumb.
"We're trying to predict the behavior of 18-21 year olds throwing around an oblong ball" is also true. They, like many people, assumed that Alabama had figured some stuff out after the SEC championship. Unfortunately, Alabama forgot everything they had figured out, and Michigan was out for blood.
Model will say Mich by like 6-7 and they will come up with some excuses as to why the computer could not get accurate reading on Mich. They both will pick Wash by 3-5 pts
What game were you guys watching? "Michigan capitalized on every error and every mistake". Like missing the field goal after Milroe fumbled at mid-field that resulted in zero points? It was Michigan who made way more mistakes and allowed Bama to stay in it. Michigan is a superior at scrimmage and it showed.
Michigan’s whole offensive game plan was based on motion and misdirection. Most of their big plays came by causing Alabama to bust coverage and capitalizing on it. In terms of 1-on-1 matchups Michigan struggled to produce anything at all in the game.
@@CollegeFootballNerds I don't know what point you're trying to make. I watched every snap of Michigan through 14 games this year and can say that's just their offense. Michigan's o-line blocked it better this game than in their other big games. Michigan's d-line dominated Bama's o-line way more than Bama's d-line did to Michigan's o-line. McCarthy had plenty of time to throw and Michigan's receivers exploited Bama's man coverage on crossing routes time and time again.
Michigan has the 4th most players in the nfl. Alabama isnt better on paper. They may have better high school talent. But they don’t develop as well as Michigan. Will Johnson was the best corner on the field. They had the best defensive line. Best offensive line. Michigan was the superior team the whole game.
Trying to explain to people that Michigan was the more talented team and that recruiting rankings are only useful in retrospect is like talking to a brick wall.
Your pick, and your model, did not factor in Michigan having an uncharacteristically abysmal special teams performance. If Michigan had a normal special teams performance, that game is probably a 2 score win for Michigan. It really did not feel as close as you guys are suggesting.
Lmao!!! I am a Husky fan. Just listened to 2 commentators who couldn’t come to grips with reality. They admitted they were wrong but turned themselves into pretzels to convince themselves they were right. The ending comment was most telling when Jayden blurted out Texas … errr … I mean Washington … It’s called cognitive dissonance ….
I have been arguing with people all year about the same thing regarding FSU. Pre-Jordan Travis injury I think FSU was probably the best team in the country. People think Washington = PAC-12 = bad. I think they thought the same of FSU. In my mind FSU and Washington were the only 2 truly elite offenses the entire year. Both teams had levels to their offense and could take it to that next level when needed. FSU and Washington would have been a true war. (and I'm not an FSU fan)
@@MH-0101 I didn’t pay attention to the betting culture until the CFP teams were announced. Felt that FSU deserved a spot in the playoffs due to the totality of their performance over the regular season. Whoever triumphs in the game will be the National Champs. I like the matchup. I also like that the strengths attached to Michigan were the same attached to Texas. How did that work out for the Longhorns? Thanks for your insights.
Once again, I love for these guys to continue doing what they’re doing, but it is really funny how they perceive history. Clemson basically just gave up on rushing against Alabama in 2016. Alabama rushing yards 138 on 46 attempts Clemson 145 on 38 attempts.
Finally a factual Bama QB analysis: Jalen Milroe 16/23 116 yds a fumble and a 3rd down slide 2 yds shy of the 1st down... Plus taking two 3rd down sacks making 2 easy field goals 50yds each for Will Reichard that he amazingly made... Jalen Milroe is literally the most over-hyped QB i've ever seen. 🙄
im surprised how close the game was w/o Alabama posing a passing threat I think UM has a lot of favorable matchups against Washington's defense, but Wash's offense will be by far the best UM has seen all year. Ppl kept saying Milroe is the best QB michigan has seen all year... ehh lol
Not surprised, haven’t given Washington credit all year. Didn’t give props to Penix, the O line, etc. Just talked about how Texas messed up. Here’s some quick analysis: UW was just the better team, and never trailed the whole game. The only reason Texas had a chance at winning was DJ getting hurt.
The key was Jalen McMillan. He hadn't played consistently between the Michigan State game (3rd of the year) and the PAC-12 Championship. Mix him in with the other 2 elite receivers in Odunze and Polk, and Washington becomes nearly unstoppable on offense.
@PurpleHazeVanNederlands Michigan is 39-3 this decade, not counting Covid year, Not bad for a team that recruits at the level of Texas Tech... Michigan only has 2) 5 star players compared to Alabama at 36-6 with 25+ 5 star players.. You can pick and choose the history you want, but the facts are the facts. Michigan is at an elite level, being able to develop 3 star players and beating a team that has the #1 recruiting class year in and year out... Imagine what Michigan and Harbaugh would do with Alabama type of talent... You'll have no chance
Most of UM sacks were with 4 rushers and sometime 5. You need to go rematch the game. UM brought pressure from one side and dropped the DE into coverage. Thatnis called ZONE BLITZING. It is amazing to me that people give you guys credibility when you talk about things you simply do not understand or see.
Michigan controlled both lines for a good part of the game. Uncharacteristic mistakes on special teams were the reason Bama was within 2 TDs. The D was overwhelming and Milroe looked like he didn’t know how to read the coverages.
Tough to see Texas lose as a Texas fan, but I’m glad that Washington fans have generally been gracious about it. Penix had an A+ game, and I hope he has a nice pro career.
I thought Bama made good adjustments in the second half by bringing back the H back motions that worked so well against UGA. 45 was so impactful, but it felt like the self imposed mistakes limited the ability to stay ahead of the chains and they went away from it
Michigan by 10-11 was plausible if they didn't self destruct on special teams. Alabama capitalized on michigans mistakes, especially the first 7 points.
Exactly these guys are in complete denial. Embarrassing themselves as usual. Michigan had 10 tfl, 6 sacks Bama 1 n 1 Michigan dominated the yardage If they replayed this game again I'm taking Michigan
Or if Bama has better snaps, that first interception had counted (he was inches out of bounds, or muffed punt late would have bounced 2 yards further Bama would have won
@@PurpleHazeVanNederlands bama got dominated up front and Michigan completely took away the pass game. Also the center was bad all season so that's no excuse. Bama didn't play bad- they just got outplayed by a better team. Cheers, go blue🎉
"If Corum slips on 4 and 2".... if Michigan doesn't muff a punt and give Bama a short field for the first touchdown, doesn't botch an extra point, and doesn't miss a field goal Michigan very well could have won by 11 in regulation. 6 sacks and 10 tfls is 100 manhandling an offensive line
Everyone keeps sayin 6 sacks. I watched the game and counted at least 7 maybe 8. The announcers even counted the 7. I’m definitely gonna take a look at that
You guys were more wrong about the Rose Bowl than you're letting on, especially when it comes to mistakes. Michigan played its sloppiest game since the Bowling Green game back in September, yet still won with a balanced offense. JJ threw better against Alabama than any of the previous 4 games both per attempt and in raw yardage. Michigan's B game beat Alabama's A- game, when you guys thought Michigan would need their A+ game to edge out Alabama's B+ game. In those regards, you guys were wrong in your predictions. I respect that you guys acknowledge that Michigan is the better team though. If both teams play a clean game, Michigan wins this game by 10 in regulation. One thing I have to give Alabama is that McClellan ran a lot better than I thought he could. If anyone kept Alabama in this game besides semaj morgan giving them short fields, it was him.
The model said Michigan by 11 in regulation, when scores were actually level. BUT - you recall that Michigan 1) spotted Bama a TD of a muffed punt, 2) missed a field goal, and 3) muffed a snap on a XP? I.e., THE MODEL WAS EXACTLY RIGHT?
I think the model was right. The only issue I have is that Michigan always plays tight in bowl games. They don't handle the long layoff well. I think they over prepare which even Nick Saban preaches against.
Milroe is a tremendous athlete but an extremely limited QB. It's pretty hard to blame the OC when the QB can't make pre snap reads or adjustments, never hits the hot routes or short to intermediate throws. It's boom or bust. Nothing anywhere consistent or efficient.
It's lovely to hear a couple southern SEC homers admit they were wrong about PAC 12 conference strength. Washington is strong in all aspects. Respect the Northwest!!! lololol It's all good.
The Pac-12 is the best conference this year. Pac-12 QB’s are better than the Big 12, Mildew, and most definitely the awful Big 10. Pac-12 defenses aren’t as bad as people say because the offenses are so good. Bad offense way overinflates Big 10 defenses and Texas also wasn’t as good as given credit for. Teams that have the best players win titles and the best players wear purple and gold.
Guys, explaining the result of this game as Alabama making mistakes as the reason they lost is flat out silly. Michigan forced Alabama to make mistakes - mainly by dominating on pass rush and having a better scheme. Michigan shot themselves in the foot and made MORE mistakes than Bama, and still won. Lastly, look at which team’s mistakes are outliers relative to the mean… I’ll wait… it’s Michigan’s. Meaning, Michigan played worse than they had all year and still beat Bama. Ya’ll need to open your eyes to Jim Harbaugh as a coach, you also failed to mention how he significantly out-coached Bama.
You could easily see UW was better based on the schedule. The PAC12 was way deeper than the Big12. Oregon was a way better team than TX and we best them twice. Yall slept on UW cuz you didn't watch them enough. Do your research before you pick the championship game. The big12 was weak and we all know it
Michigan did dominate the line. Alabama's run yardage was because of one 30 yard run and a bunch of Milroe scrambles. Take out those two things and they ran for 98 yards on 22 carries for 4.45 ypc. Michigan dominated the line on both side. You can't just look at rushing stats and make that claim. Anybody watching the game knows MI dominated the line. If you are going to look at a stat look at sacks and tfls. Michigan had 6 sacks and 10 tfls. Bama had 1 sack and 1 TFL. But somehow michigan didn't dominate the line lol
@@CollegeFootballNerds If we are talking about overall LINE dominance why wouldn't sacks be taken into account. It's hard to take into account a scramble because that could just be because of Milroe being Milroe and nothing to do with the line. And actually a scramble most likely means the pocket broke down which would be the lines fault. And a sack is most likely directly correlated to line play. Bama's backs running for 6 ypc is a good argument for sure and again you take out that 1 30 yard run and it drops them to 4.4 ypc (which honestly is still respectable). But I think eye test tells you that Michigan's line dominated most of the game. That last play on the goal line Latham got absolutely destroyed and it blew up the play.
Michigan made many more self-inflicted mistakes than Bama and may have won by 11 or so if both teams made an even amount of self-inflicted errors. Michigan's 2 muffed punts were completely unforced, and Bamas fumble was punched out by Michigan. Michigan missed an extra point and a field goal that they've been so consistent all year long with, and Bama didn't miss, including two from 50+. I just think it's likely if they play 10 times, a lot of these things sway towards Michigan's favor in the other 9 games.
Y'all acting like Michigan didn't muff 2 punts and lost one that led to a TD.. Missed 2 FG.. Had very unmichigan personal foals. Without huge Michigan mistakes in the first half Michigan would've been leading by double digits
I find it interesting than in your Texas vs Washington recap you seemed to be saying, "We were right, but Penix broke the model". You mentioned 10-1 sacks/TFL's in the MIchigan/Alabama game, but you didn't even mention the Washington 7-3 advantage by Washington in Sacks/TFL's. Washington had 311 yards of offense in the 1st half and was up 14-7 before the muffed punt and then had the 4th down fail. That was essentially 2 1st have turnovers. Texas was lucky be 21-21 at half. Then Washington came out and dominated in the 3rd quarter with 3 scores to go up 13. It could have been more. Pointing to rushing stats etc when Texas gpt 256 yards of offense in the 4th quarter when they had only 498 total and 232 in the first 3 quarters. If it had have been Washington getting 256 yards in the 4th quarter you'd have said, "Texas dominated and Washington couldn't do anything until garbage time"... I appreciate that it is very difficult to compare teams from the Pac 12, Big 10. SEC and Big 12, because they don't play the same teams. When the stats say Michigan is the best defense in the country it's because they were the best defense statistically against East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan St., Purdue, Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State and Iowa. Whatever their pass defense numbers were with that schedule what would they have been playing a Pac 12 schedule? Probably not nearly as good. Comparing teams from different conferences based on stats alone is misleading. None of the models take into account "clutch factor" or "choke factor" or who has a chip on their shoulder or even injuries for each team at each position for each game tor them and their opponent. Some take into account that one team calls off the dogs and benches their starting QB in a blowout, but do they take into account how good the 2nd string QB is...? Is there a drop off..? What about teams decisions to take away the run vs the pass? Does the model look at running 6 in the box vs 8 in the box? No. It doesn't. These models are just high level stats. Not enough comparative data and not enough taking the situations into account. Coaches don't call plays based upon how the "models" will judge the result. Washington ran the ball 31 times. They knew what they were up against, but they decided it was worth trying. When Clemson's Deshawn Watson didn't run the ball at all against Alabama they made the decision not to at all. The Alabama defense looked great according to the model on run defense, but it's not taking everything into context. A lot of it is based on 5 and 4 stars out of high school, but we've all seen plenty of busts once kids get into college, because comparing kids in high school is even tougher than in college. In the end the games are played on the field not on paper and comparing stats in the NBA or MLB makes some sense, but in college football... not so much. Looking forward to Washington vs Michigan. I'm going with Michigan even though Michigan was built to stop Ohio State, which is kinda who Washington is...
I think you guys overlooked the amount of uncharacteristic Michigan screw ups in this game. You talked about how alabama made mistakes and Michigan played a mature game, and that might be true in terms of composure at the end, but the special teams fiasco was entirely out of left field, and Michigan could have easily been up big if it wasn’t for multiple uncharacteristic drops and missed throws on third downs in the second quarter.
I love this channel but my God the opening of this video is excruciating. Alabama lost the game because Michigan was the better team, period. The only reason it was close at the half was because of the muffed punt, and Bama came out in the 3rd quarter and played great but then Michigan just being better took over the game in the 4th. This game was only close because Michigan couldn't keep shooting themselves in the foot on special teams.
But they didn't... The mistakes were closer to equal. Alabama with their snapping issues and the muffed punt that bounced perfectly for Michigan to recover at the one-yard line.
@@AJMuma Just because they overcame it a few times doesn't mean they aren't mistakes... If anything it proves the inverse. Imagine how many TDs they would have scored if they could actually snap the ball?
I think the smart and safe money will be on UM but I think UW is quite a story. As a Buckeye fan you could argue I would be rooting against UM anyways, but I think UW has caught lightning in a bottle this season and I suspect they find a way to win next week. A fitting end to the Pac. I'm personally excited to see UM gets both UT and UW next season - plus Oregon and OSU, lots of tough games next season for Harbaugh.
Alabama was in that game because Michigan had it's worst Special Teams performance in 3 years. I don't know if you are tying to come off like Alabama beat themselves but it sure sounds like it.
This analysis makes zero sense... You pick against Michigan AND Washington prior to the games, yet your conclusion at the end is that WA vs TX is a 50/50 were they to play 10 more times but Michigan vs Bama would be a 70/30? Washington was up by 13 going into 4th quarter after DOMINATING the 3rd, then let it get close thanks in part to a completely flukey injury coupled with the stupid 'injury time out' rule. Meanwhile BAMA was up on Michigan into the 4th and it eventually went to overtime. What exactly after watching these games makes you think an overtime game where Michigan had to come back to even get into overtime makes them a 70/30 over bama versus washington who was up by two scores going into the 4th and allowed it to get close in the last 90 seconds of the game is a 50/50 toss up? If anything, the most dominant looking team writ large between those 4 was WASHINGTON. They had an extreme advantage versus Texas's secondary, and to think otherwise (as you both mentioned you did) proves you are watching numbers as opposed to the actual games. Also, you mention 'it is hard to compare teams relative strength when they are siloed in their own conferences'..... What? No shit sherlock, that's why you WATCH THE GAMES. It was clear to anyone who actually watched college football this year that the Pac 12 was leaps and bounds a BETTER conference than the Big 12. Outside of the single decent QB Texas faced all year, Dillon Gabriel who, if you remember, Texas LOST to, they played ZERO good quarterbacks. NONE. That you say you weren't sure how Washingtons QB and Receivers would stack up against the Texas secondary shows because of 'conference relative strength' shows, once again, you looked at numbers as opposed to actually watching games.
@MichiganMan-oz4iz I grew up in Michigan but went to UA. That was a weird one for me. Disappointed we lost but I hope Michigan wins one. Don't blow it. This is Michigan's best chance in my lifetime.
Never forget that at its core, this channel is an SEC homer channel that is disguised as impartial. It used to be called SECFans back in the day. It's also painfully obvious when the SEC gets more game previews than the other conferences combined. I didn't watch the semifinal previews, but I'm admittedly not surprised in the least to hear that they picked the SEC teams in both match ups. I'm no Michigan or Washington fan, either, so this isn't coming from a disgruntled fan taking a victory lap. The channel's analysis with the model is typically pretty quality and certainly unique, so it's a shame that it has to be presented with such a clear and obvious bias, but c'est la vie.
I agree with this. A lot of ppl overvalue the SEC as a conf, what I want to see is how much and which teams. Especially team by team. Because they might be the best team if you’re talking about the number of great teams but just top to bottom I’d have to disagree. They ignore things like their win % against the ACC and blah blah blah in years that comes up. With the 12 team we will see definitively where everyone ranks
I don't understand comments like this. The SEC has won 13 of the last 17 National Championships (18 counting this season). There's a reason people pick the SEC teams to win a lot and it's because they actually win the game.
@@davida730 edit: realized you weren’t talking to me.. sorry David …. no problem David. The SEC gets higher ranks. They get more benefit of the doubt when they lose. That puts them in better position to make the post season as a conf. That skews the results. Now, I definitely said they might have the most great teams. Great teams win games. Bama, UGA, and tOSU get 85% of the 5 star talent. 2 of those teams are in the SEC. I think the SEC as a conf is overvalued. There’s no such thing as overvaluing UGA and Bama in a historical sense. The win chips. They get all the talent. Since the conf as a whole is overvalued you get SEC teams ranked higher takin more slots in the preseason. This pushes better teams lower and sometimes completely out. I already said how just the volume skews the results but not playing the best from other confs count as well. I think the SEC was 4-6 in the regular season vs ACC this year? Do we think the ACC is better than the SEC? No. Do we think their top end is as good? No. Yet explain that result I think the take makes perfect sense. I wasn’t make a point about games won or chips won. I was making a point about perception. When we have more out of conf matchups we will have a better perception of where the confs and the teams stand. That makes perfect sense
@@davida730 I agree with what you’re saying if we are basing it solely on chips won but there’s definitely reason for sayin there is bias. Also, what do you mean by 18 counting this season? The SEC has been eliminated from the playoffs
@@JvariW The problem with inter conference match ups is it’s not apples to apples. Florida was 5-7 this year and lost to FSU, the 13-0 ACC champs. On the flip side GA Tech losing to Ole Miss and UGA doesn’t really prove anything. The playoffs is really the best indicator because the teams are at least sort of equal. Ohio State vs Missouri was decent as well. Also I said 18 because even though the title game hasn’t been played this season, the SEC can’t win it.
55 is decent. We don't know if it was 10 or 20 yards longer what would have happened. Diesnt really matter. That 1st td they got would have been long if they were further back. That boy busted that 34 yard td. That said. GO BLUE. GO GET THAT NATTY.
Your opening argument is bad and here's why. You claim the prediction for Alabama was more accurate than the model having Michigan by 11 in regulation. Now, if all you look at is the final score than I suppose you would be right but I look at the totality of the game and I saw a Michigan team that was clearly the better team than a flawed Alabama and the one thing that the model was basing it's prediction off of that didn't come to pass was Michigan's strength at Soecial Teams. So if you erase the special teams mistakes from Michigan's overall performance and assume they would have gone in Michigan's favor you see the model was spot on in predicting Michigan in regulation by +10 it's just that Michigan played a statistical outlier of a special teams game so in conclusion you got it wrong and you should just admit you got it wrong and move on.
6:35 i hope y’all mention that UM made more mistakes than Bama. And still won. They lost the field position battle, missed kicks, messed up trick plays.
My takeaway from the rose bowl is Bama looked clueless on defense. I haven’t seen a defense look this clueless since Clemson couldn’t find OJ Howard big ass running down the field.
Milroe consistently ignored the open short receiver and instead chose to throw deep into double coverage. To me that was why the Alabama passing game was ineffective
Alabama absolutely did not rush for 220 yards. Lol. And UMs D line DID DOMINATE ALABAMA. 6 sacks and 10 TFLs. To say otherwise is idiotic and a false narrative. But nice try, trying to slip 220 yards rushing in. Lmao
you guys miss Michigan A LOT. you have picked OSU the last 3 years both of you. Understand your point about if its close you made a good pick. OK, however this result I would think is at the lesser end of performance for Michigan. in other words the YPA and YPP for Michigan that actually happened, the win expectancy for Michigan would be higher.
Yall picked Texas, because Texas beat Alabama.... No other reason. What did i tell u on that video, Texas played one good QB all year, and its the only game they lost. They got shredded by Oklahoma.....And they'd get shredded by Washington
I actually think that subconsciously this is exactly why they picked Texas. I straight up told them that was the most incorrect pick they ever made. Washington was Oklahoma on steroids.
Just an FYI, September 23rd was the last game that Jalen McMillan was fully healthy for before the second Oregon game. The outcome of this semifinal was totally predictable. Hence why I straight up told you in the comments of the semi final preview that this would be the most wrong you had ever been on a prediction.
Clicked on this for some analysis not a long drawn out excuse session for why you and the model were wrong. So clear you haven’t actually watched much of penix play. Other than the month where he was hurt with a rib injury which caused him to float a lot of balls and the flu game. He has all the pitches a Penix’s calling card is his accuracy down field. I’ve watched every one of his WA games. Only QB since Mahomes to have back to back 4500 yard seasons. And he was in an air raid system and Penix is not.
You're just making up spit now.... Jus say u were wrong.... what if corum slipped???? What Auburn didn't give up 4th & 31... u can't do that. U picked Alabama to win by 3 and seven. Yall were 10 and 14pts off. Ur model was only 3pts off. Yall r so disingenuous to get on here and act like u barely missed ur picks. Vegas wouldn't exist if they missed their picks by 10-14 pts per game. Vegas power rankings had Michigan by 8........
Coaches can call plays but cant make players execute! Bamas oline, qb, and inside linebackers are why Bama lost! Bad snaps, poor blocking, and very poor qb play on offense! Not picking up backs out of the backfield and releasing tightends killed the linebackers and safeties!! Bama flat out lost this game because of not executing and not reaching inside for physicality!! When someone hits you in the mouth you either get mad and knock them out or you back down! Bama fid not stand up!!! I believe Bama thought this was gonna be a cakewalk and got busted in the mouth and let Michigan overwhelm them! Embarrassing!! If Milroe is QB next season the same outcome will come! He has all the physical skills in the world but cant read defenses and cant find open receivers! The only times he found wide open receivers this past season were when they were schemed as the play! He has a one track mind and cant go thru all his reads! He stares down where he initially wants to go and misses wide open receivers and checkdowns constantly!
And if Michigan doesn't make uncharacteristic mistakes they probably win by 11 or 12.😂... The snapping is an issue that Bama has been dealing with all year.
Yeah these guys’ take is really sus in the sense that it’s about Alabama playing bad while previously leaving these things out when they picked Bama to win. Makes no sense at all
SEC homers to the max unfortunately. when they opened the segment by talking about how "the model was more wrong than we were!" i cracked up @@kryptokc3800
they definitely let there human SEC bias get in the way of objectively looking at the game and the teams as a whole this season. while generally the SEC is great and unquestionably the best conference, it was definitely down this year because of poor QB play. Alabama had so many questionable and bad games compared to michigan this year i just don’t get how people didn’t see thet
6:00 what is it with this narrative? So many reactions to this game just sum up to "Alabama made a lot of mistakes- that is the main reason they lost." Michigan had PLENTY of mistakes too and it made the game way closer than it needed to be. Michigan missed an extra point, a missed field goal, TWO muffed punts- one which essentially handed Alabama a touchdown by field position, along with a few missed plays like two drops and a flubbed flea-flicker. If you change ANY of those moments- Alabama doesn't even make it to overtime. Both teams made mistakes. Michigan was the only team to capitalize on the. Alabama didn't lose the game, Michigan won it.
Clemson ran 38 times for 145 yards against Alabama in 2015 so to say they couldn't run it is a little inaccurate. that was 3.8 yards per carry against an elite defense. which I think is ok.
The backpedaling cope is unreal after such an ignorant prediction. You said the SEC was just a different conference because they had more explosive plays and JJ McCarthy’s success was based on cheating. Reality is Michigan had the better: Head coach, Assistants, Lineman, QB, and Team. Only special teams kept it close. 2x 5 stars just beat 18x 5 stars. Saban got outclassed in every way possible, lowest yardage total in 7 years or something.
I'm surprised we actually had an opportunity to win given how incompetent our QB play was. Good luck in the natty. Will be rooting for Michigan but am finally a believer in Washington.
I don’t understand how you can talk about Alabama’s mistakes without any mention of Michigan’s absolutely horrific special teams. Your model was closer than y’all were. Michigan wins by 7-10 with an average special teams performance. Alabama didn’t make a bunch of mistakes. They just got outplayed and thoroughly outcoached.
Lol yeah. I would respect a “Yeah, we blew it. Sometimes things happen.” Nobody knows what’s going to happen and it’s ok to be wrong. The constant “but here’s why we were really right” redirections are tiresome.
It's so frickin disingenuous when they do that. As a content creator, u have to realize that ur gonna miss some of ur picks. But that's when u come back and u tell ur audience that u were wrong. There is nothing wrong with missing a pick. But to come online with we were wrong, but we were kinda right when we were wrong is jus ridiculous
@@Struggle_Streaming_With_BK Yeah, Vegas is right, what, a little over 50% of the time in their lines? Not really sure, but it isn’t 100%. Nobody expects perfection. But we expect honesty.
@B_Dog_33 Vegas isn't off 10-14 points that often. Sure they miss.... that's why they always get 20pct of the pot of rip. But there would be no Vegas if they missed the spreads by 10 to 14 pts......
Yall stop!!! Mich was the better team!!! Every time the sec lose it’s because they didn’t play their game!!! No Mich made them play that way!!! Yall was wrong just own it!!
Did you watch the video? Because you were, at most, 11 minutes into this 38 minute video when you commented this. We actually note that we think Michigan probably beats Alabama 7 out of 10 times, and it was all due to their consistency.
I think you are totally justified in your Michigan pick and you defense of the pick makes sense. But the Washington pick I think really comes from not keeping up with the team closely enough. In your preview you correctly pointed out that some of the close games for Texas had context that made the team look worse than they actually were. Washington was not given that benefit of the doubt even though they had McMillan injured, the team had the flu, and Penix didn't look right because he had a rib injury. At the start of the season before these things came up they were the best passing attack in the nation. Once they had a month off to get fully healthy they were once again the best passing attack in the nation.
Texas also got bad Ewers in the first half. People often overlook how inconsistent he is. He can make any throw on the field but can also miss any throw on the field. The only game he consistently hit throws and consistently hit deep throws for the only time in his career was the game against Alabama this year. I had him as the X-factor to either win the game or lose the game based on his performance. Its ironic turnovers kept Texas in the first half but then when Ewers started to play good in the second half they started fumbling.
@@thomasfrederick71 Your comment and Greenearth's comment are why I picked Washington. It's sad that the Nerd's didn't analyze Washington closely enough when they portray themselves as unbiased. I realized that Washington could not be stopped by the Texas defense. On the other hand and to your comment, it isn't so much as Ewer's play that is inconsistent as much as it is the whole Texas offense. Texas overcomplicates their offense and it leads to Texas stopping themselves which they did in epic fashion throughout the game.
The first 5-6 minute tirade is a long winded euphemism for “we’ve been wrong about Michigan in their two biggest games and we don’t feel the least bit bad about it. As a matter of fact, here’s our rationalization.” Regardless of my insincere ball busting, you guys have done a good job all year on the channel.
SEC guys just didn't want to give the Michigan D any respect. The model was right - Michigan spotted Bama a TD with a very uncharacteristic dropped punt. You guys also made the mistake of thinking Milroe was way better than he has shown all year. He's an AVERAGE college QB. He's no Michael Penix.
I'm getting really tired of seeing Alabama routinely out-coached and out-schemed, especially in big games. Tommy Rees looked like a complete offensive neophyte in comparison to Sherrone Moore. Alabama seemingly hasn't been able to get "easy yards" since 2020, so it wasn't just a Bill O'Brien issue, as we hoped most of last year. I think we read too much into Milroe's performances against LSU and Kentucky, and his big pass to beat Auburn. His limitations as a passer made it almost impossible to sustain drives in this game.
Always appreciate the hard work and no hard feelings 😊. You guys are more reasonable than most of the media making picks. Just please pick Washington in your final prediction 🎉
The only reason to doubt Penix and Wash was their inconsistency over the season. When they play at their best, they are elite. Also, Washington is the most clutch team in the country, which leads one to expect them be at their best in the biggest game.
I think your Alabama pick was fair. You picked a close game and it was. Although I think Michigan was solidly the better team and played extremely tight which almost cost them the game. I know you might say Alabama made mistakes too but that is kind of who they are in every game. I don't agree that Texas could have ever beat Washington. To be honest Washington felt at least two touchdowns better than Texas the whole game. I would say Michigan is 7 to 10 points better than Alabama on any given week. What I am more interest in knowing is whether Ohio State at full strength beats Alabama. Super close but I think Ohio State would have won. Basically what I'm saying is, Ohio State was really the fourth best team.
We watched a different Rose Bowl apparently.
Interesting to hear your guys SEC perspective. A lot of people seem to discredit Michigans players and continue to credit coaching, but Michigans D-line was better, Michigans O-line was better. 10 TFL’s to 1 TFL is dominating the LOS. Michigan had the better QB play, and you could argue Michigan had the better secondary.
Thanks for the video, guys.
every single show these guys start with “we picked the game wrong, but we weren’t actually that wrong even though we picked the complete wrong team to win and here’s why”
It's impossible to pick these games. It's why I don't bet on them. Both games realistically could have gone either way.
These two idiots just can't get off the "if this WOULD have happened"....this should have been....if Alabama did this, it could have....well, it didn't. We want to listen to reality... not fantasy scenarios....these two men just can't help themselves
@@stephenjohnson5121
Classic "If my aunt had a..."
.
Totally agree but I still like listening to these guys cause they still go more in depth than a lot of other channels even if they’re always wrong lol. But yeah I don’t care for the explaining away your bad pick that’s just dumb.
"We're trying to predict the behavior of 18-21 year olds throwing around an oblong ball" is also true. They, like many people, assumed that Alabama had figured some stuff out after the SEC championship. Unfortunately, Alabama forgot everything they had figured out, and Michigan was out for blood.
Please just keep picking against Michigan.
Please pick washington
Model will say Mich by like 6-7 and they will come up with some excuses as to why the computer could not get accurate reading on Mich. They both will pick Wash by 3-5 pts
Yep, they can't seem to learn
Hell yeah! Go Blue, BABY!!
〽️BLUE〽️✊🏼✊🏼
Two big ten teams in the final…
What game were you guys watching? "Michigan capitalized on every error and every mistake". Like missing the field goal after Milroe fumbled at mid-field that resulted in zero points? It was Michigan who made way more mistakes and allowed Bama to stay in it. Michigan is a superior at scrimmage and it showed.
Michigan’s whole offensive game plan was based on motion and misdirection. Most of their big plays came by causing Alabama to bust coverage and capitalizing on it. In terms of 1-on-1 matchups Michigan struggled to produce anything at all in the game.
@@CollegeFootballNerds I don't know what point you're trying to make. I watched every snap of Michigan through 14 games this year and can say that's just their offense. Michigan's o-line blocked it better this game than in their other big games. Michigan's d-line dominated Bama's o-line way more than Bama's d-line did to Michigan's o-line. McCarthy had plenty of time to throw and Michigan's receivers exploited Bama's man coverage on crossing routes time and time again.
Funny you say if corum slips how bout if semaj doesn't fumble a easy punt return that bama doesn't score in first half
Michigan has the 4th most players in the nfl. Alabama isnt better on paper. They may have better high school talent. But they don’t develop as well as Michigan. Will Johnson was the best corner on the field. They had the best defensive line. Best offensive line. Michigan was the superior team the whole game.
Trying to explain to people that Michigan was the more talented team and that recruiting rankings are only useful in retrospect is like talking to a brick wall.
Every single argument you make is slanted towards the SEC 😂
Sec homers
You guys have not watched Penix at all this year. Dude should have won the Heisman
Pick Washington in the next game.
"I think we were right in saying the model overestimated the gap between these teams" Nah that doesn't pass the eye test.
Your pick, and your model, did not factor in Michigan having an uncharacteristically abysmal special teams performance. If Michigan had a normal special teams performance, that game is probably a 2 score win for Michigan. It really did not feel as close as you guys are suggesting.
Lmao!!! I am a Husky fan. Just listened to 2 commentators who couldn’t come to grips with reality.
They admitted they were wrong but turned themselves into pretzels to convince themselves they were right.
The ending comment was most telling when Jayden blurted out Texas … errr … I mean Washington …
It’s called cognitive dissonance ….
I have been arguing with people all year about the same thing regarding FSU. Pre-Jordan Travis injury I think FSU was probably the best team in the country. People think Washington = PAC-12 = bad. I think they thought the same of FSU. In my mind FSU and Washington were the only 2 truly elite offenses the entire year. Both teams had levels to their offense and could take it to that next level when needed. FSU and Washington would have been a true war. (and I'm not an FSU fan)
@@MH-0101 I didn’t pay attention to the betting culture until the CFP teams were announced. Felt that FSU deserved a spot in the playoffs due to the totality of their performance over the regular season.
Whoever triumphs in the game will be the National Champs.
I like the matchup. I also like that the strengths attached to Michigan were the same attached to Texas. How did that work out for the Longhorns?
Thanks for your insights.
Once again, I love for these guys to continue doing what they’re doing, but it is really funny how they perceive history. Clemson basically just gave up on rushing against Alabama in 2016. Alabama rushing yards 138 on 46 attempts Clemson 145 on 38 attempts.
From a bama fan. Michigan came well prepared and executed. Congrats
Finally a factual Bama QB analysis:
Jalen Milroe 16/23 116 yds a fumble and a 3rd down slide 2 yds shy of the 1st down... Plus taking two 3rd down sacks making 2 easy field goals 50yds each for Will Reichard that he amazingly made...
Jalen Milroe is literally the most over-hyped QB i've ever seen. 🙄
im surprised how close the game was w/o Alabama posing a passing threat
I think UM has a lot of favorable matchups against Washington's defense, but Wash's offense will be by far the best UM has seen all year.
Ppl kept saying Milroe is the best QB michigan has seen all year... ehh lol
Love you bama fans. So much class. Nothing like Georgia or Ohio State fans. They are so angry and entitled.
Not surprised, haven’t given Washington credit all year.
Didn’t give props to Penix, the O line, etc. Just talked about how Texas messed up.
Here’s some quick analysis: UW was just the better team, and never trailed the whole game. The only reason Texas had a chance at winning was DJ getting hurt.
The key was Jalen McMillan. He hadn't played consistently between the Michigan State game (3rd of the year) and the PAC-12 Championship. Mix him in with the other 2 elite receivers in Odunze and Polk, and Washington becomes nearly unstoppable on offense.
Nice collection of SEC jerseys and swag you got back there
Excuses after excuses after excuses 😂 these guys are something else
Michigan has one 1 consensus national title since 1948 and that isn't going to change agter Washington wins
@PurpleHazeVanNederlands Michigan is 39-3 this decade, not counting Covid year, Not bad for a team that recruits at the level of Texas Tech... Michigan only has 2) 5 star players compared to Alabama at 36-6 with 25+ 5 star players.. You can pick and choose the history you want, but the facts are the facts. Michigan is at an elite level, being able to develop 3 star players and beating a team that has the #1 recruiting class year in and year out... Imagine what Michigan and Harbaugh would do with Alabama type of talent... You'll have no chance
@@jesseg.1900 1948
@PurpleHazeVanNederlands 2024*****
@@PurpleHazeVanNederlands 2024*** 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Most of UM sacks were with 4 rushers and sometime 5. You need to go rematch the game. UM brought pressure from one side and dropped the DE into coverage. Thatnis called ZONE BLITZING. It is amazing to me that people give you guys credibility when you talk about things you simply do not understand or see.
Washington seems magical. Fun to watch.
Michigan controlled both lines for a good part of the game. Uncharacteristic mistakes on special teams were the reason Bama was within 2 TDs. The D was overwhelming and Milroe looked like he didn’t know how to read the coverages.
That's cuz he can't & never will.
Tough to see Texas lose as a Texas fan, but I’m glad that Washington fans have generally been gracious about it. Penix had an A+ game, and I hope he has a nice pro career.
I'm still upset that I picked Washington to win 38-31 smh.
I don't know ball :(
I thought Bama made good adjustments in the second half by bringing back the H back motions that worked so well against UGA. 45 was so impactful, but it felt like the self imposed mistakes limited the ability to stay ahead of the chains and they went away from it
If the rest of the schedule next year watches this we have a hard season upcoming… the key.
Michigan by 10-11 was plausible if they didn't self destruct on special teams. Alabama capitalized on michigans mistakes, especially the first 7 points.
Exactly these guys are in complete denial.
Embarrassing themselves as usual.
Michigan had 10 tfl, 6 sacks
Bama 1 n 1
Michigan dominated the yardage
If they replayed this game again I'm taking Michigan
Alabama had its worst game of the season and was still leading 20-13 in the 4th until 1/43
Or if Bama has better snaps, that first interception had counted (he was inches out of bounds, or muffed punt late would have bounced 2 yards further Bama would have won
@@PurpleHazeVanNederlands bama got dominated up front and Michigan completely took away the pass game. Also the center was bad all season so that's no excuse. Bama didn't play bad- they just got outplayed by a better team. Cheers, go blue🎉
"If Corum slips on 4 and 2".... if Michigan doesn't muff a punt and give Bama a short field for the first touchdown, doesn't botch an extra point, and doesn't miss a field goal Michigan very well could have won by 11 in regulation.
6 sacks and 10 tfls is 100 manhandling an offensive line
Everyone keeps sayin 6 sacks. I watched the game and counted at least 7 maybe 8. The announcers even counted the 7. I’m definitely gonna take a look at that
More than likely they counted milroe negative runs as TFL n not sacks.
@@danman1809 thank you
@@JvariW anytime and if you need answers on any n everything such as the meaning of life my nickname is noahtahl. JK n GO BLUE BABYYYYY!!!
You guys were more wrong about the Rose Bowl than you're letting on, especially when it comes to mistakes.
Michigan played its sloppiest game since the Bowling Green game back in September, yet still won with a balanced offense. JJ threw better against Alabama than any of the previous 4 games both per attempt and in raw yardage. Michigan's B game beat Alabama's A- game, when you guys thought Michigan would need their A+ game to edge out Alabama's B+ game. In those regards, you guys were wrong in your predictions. I respect that you guys acknowledge that Michigan is the better team though. If both teams play a clean game, Michigan wins this game by 10 in regulation. One thing I have to give Alabama is that McClellan ran a lot better than I thought he could. If anyone kept Alabama in this game besides semaj morgan giving them short fields, it was him.
The model said Michigan by 11 in regulation, when scores were actually level.
BUT - you recall that Michigan 1) spotted Bama a TD of a muffed punt, 2) missed a field goal, and 3) muffed a snap on a XP? I.e., THE MODEL WAS EXACTLY RIGHT?
I think the model was right. The only issue I have is that Michigan always plays tight in bowl games. They don't handle the long layoff well. I think they over prepare which even Nick Saban preaches against.
Milroe is a tremendous athlete but an extremely limited QB. It's pretty hard to blame the OC when the QB can't make pre snap reads or adjustments, never hits the hot routes or short to intermediate throws. It's boom or bust. Nothing anywhere consistent or efficient.
The Darwin Award goes to Daniel & Josh of the SEC Football Nerds!
Congratulations!
Bye.
It's lovely to hear a couple southern SEC homers admit they were wrong about PAC 12 conference strength. Washington is strong in all aspects. Respect the Northwest!!! lololol It's all good.
Washington was healthy and you miss judged the O line. It's ok.... Most people did.
The Pac-12 is the best conference this year.
Pac-12 QB’s are better than the Big 12, Mildew, and most definitely the awful Big 10.
Pac-12 defenses aren’t as bad as people say because the offenses are so good. Bad offense way overinflates Big 10 defenses and Texas also wasn’t as good as given credit for.
Teams that have the best players win titles and the best players wear purple and gold.
Guys, explaining the result of this game as Alabama making mistakes as the reason they lost is flat out silly. Michigan forced Alabama to make mistakes - mainly by dominating on pass rush and having a better scheme. Michigan shot themselves in the foot and made MORE mistakes than Bama, and still won. Lastly, look at which team’s mistakes are outliers relative to the mean… I’ll wait… it’s Michigan’s. Meaning, Michigan played worse than they had all year and still beat Bama. Ya’ll need to open your eyes to Jim Harbaugh as a coach, you also failed to mention how he significantly out-coached Bama.
You could easily see UW was better based on the schedule. The PAC12 was way deeper than the Big12. Oregon was a way better team than TX and we best them twice. Yall slept on UW cuz you didn't watch them enough. Do your research before you pick the championship game. The big12 was weak and we all know it
Michigan did dominate the line. Alabama's run yardage was because of one 30 yard run and a bunch of Milroe scrambles. Take out those two things and they ran for 98 yards on 22 carries for 4.45 ypc. Michigan dominated the line on both side. You can't just look at rushing stats and make that claim. Anybody watching the game knows MI dominated the line. If you are going to look at a stat look at sacks and tfls. Michigan had 6 sacks and 10 tfls. Bama had 1 sack and 1 TFL. But somehow michigan didn't dominate the line lol
Michigan dominated the line most of the game but I think they got a little slow/tired in the third quarter. They picked it back up in the fourth.
Alabama’s backs both ran for over 6 yards/carry. You’re taking Milroe runs out but not his sacks which isn’t reasonable.
@@CollegeFootballNerds If we are talking about overall LINE dominance why wouldn't sacks be taken into account. It's hard to take into account a scramble because that could just be because of Milroe being Milroe and nothing to do with the line. And actually a scramble most likely means the pocket broke down which would be the lines fault. And a sack is most likely directly correlated to line play. Bama's backs running for 6 ypc is a good argument for sure and again you take out that 1 30 yard run and it drops them to 4.4 ypc (which honestly is still respectable). But I think eye test tells you that Michigan's line dominated most of the game. That last play on the goal line Latham got absolutely destroyed and it blew up the play.
Muffed punt turned into a touchdown, missed field goal, missed PAT. Model was spot on…
Michigan made many more self-inflicted mistakes than Bama and may have won by 11 or so if both teams made an even amount of self-inflicted errors.
Michigan's 2 muffed punts were completely unforced, and Bamas fumble was punched out by Michigan. Michigan missed an extra point and a field goal that they've been so consistent all year long with, and Bama didn't miss, including two from 50+.
I just think it's likely if they play 10 times, a lot of these things sway towards Michigan's favor in the other 9 games.
Y'all acting like Michigan didn't muff 2 punts and lost one that led to a TD.. Missed 2 FG.. Had very unmichigan personal foals. Without huge Michigan mistakes in the first half Michigan would've been leading by double digits
I find it interesting than in your Texas vs Washington recap you seemed to be saying, "We were right, but Penix broke the model". You mentioned 10-1 sacks/TFL's in the MIchigan/Alabama game, but you didn't even mention the Washington 7-3 advantage by Washington in Sacks/TFL's. Washington had 311 yards of offense in the 1st half and was up 14-7 before the muffed punt and then had the 4th down fail. That was essentially 2 1st have turnovers. Texas was lucky be 21-21 at half.
Then Washington came out and dominated in the 3rd quarter with 3 scores to go up 13. It could have been more. Pointing to rushing stats etc when Texas gpt 256 yards of offense in the 4th quarter when they had only 498 total and 232 in the first 3 quarters. If it had have been Washington getting 256 yards in the 4th quarter you'd have said, "Texas dominated and Washington couldn't do anything until garbage time"...
I appreciate that it is very difficult to compare teams from the Pac 12, Big 10. SEC and Big 12, because they don't play the same teams. When the stats say Michigan is the best defense in the country it's because they were the best defense statistically against East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan St., Purdue, Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State and Iowa. Whatever their pass defense numbers were with that schedule what would they have been playing a Pac 12 schedule? Probably not nearly as good.
Comparing teams from different conferences based on stats alone is misleading. None of the models take into account "clutch factor" or "choke factor" or who has a chip on their shoulder or even injuries for each team at each position for each game tor them and their opponent. Some take into account that one team calls off the dogs and benches their starting QB in a blowout, but do they take into account how good the 2nd string QB is...? Is there a drop off..? What about teams decisions to take away the run vs the pass? Does the model look at running 6 in the box vs 8 in the box? No. It doesn't. These models are just high level stats. Not enough comparative data and not enough taking the situations into account.
Coaches don't call plays based upon how the "models" will judge the result. Washington ran the ball 31 times. They knew what they were up against, but they decided it was worth trying. When Clemson's Deshawn Watson didn't run the ball at all against Alabama they made the decision not to at all. The Alabama defense looked great according to the model on run defense, but it's not taking everything into context.
A lot of it is based on 5 and 4 stars out of high school, but we've all seen plenty of busts once kids get into college, because comparing kids in high school is even tougher than in college.
In the end the games are played on the field not on paper and comparing stats in the NBA or MLB makes some sense, but in college football... not so much.
Looking forward to Washington vs Michigan. I'm going with Michigan even though Michigan was built to stop Ohio State, which is kinda who Washington is...
I think you guys overlooked the amount of uncharacteristic Michigan screw ups in this game. You talked about how alabama made mistakes and Michigan played a mature game, and that might be true in terms of composure at the end, but the special teams fiasco was entirely out of left field, and Michigan could have easily been up big if it wasn’t for multiple uncharacteristic drops and missed throws on third downs in the second quarter.
I love this channel but my God the opening of this video is excruciating.
Alabama lost the game because Michigan was the better team, period. The only reason it was close at the half was because of the muffed punt, and Bama came out in the 3rd quarter and played great but then Michigan just being better took over the game in the 4th.
This game was only close because Michigan couldn't keep shooting themselves in the foot on special teams.
Michigan made way more mistakes than Alabama and still showed they were the better team. Please don't do the "if" thing.
But they didn't... The mistakes were closer to equal. Alabama with their snapping issues and the muffed punt that bounced perfectly for Michigan to recover at the one-yard line.
Bama scored both of their tds on low snaps so don't come with that @davida730
@@AJMuma Just because they overcame it a few times doesn't mean they aren't mistakes... If anything it proves the inverse. Imagine how many TDs they would have scored if they could actually snap the ball?
You mean like you just did?
I think the smart and safe money will be on UM but I think UW is quite a story. As a Buckeye fan you could argue I would be rooting against UM anyways, but I think UW has caught lightning in a bottle this season and I suspect they find a way to win next week. A fitting end to the Pac. I'm personally excited to see UM gets both UT and UW next season - plus Oregon and OSU, lots of tough games next season for Harbaugh.
Alabama was in that game because Michigan had it's worst Special Teams performance in 3 years. I don't know if you are tying to come off like Alabama beat themselves but it sure sounds like it.
This analysis makes zero sense... You pick against Michigan AND Washington prior to the games, yet your conclusion at the end is that WA vs TX is a 50/50 were they to play 10 more times but Michigan vs Bama would be a 70/30? Washington was up by 13 going into 4th quarter after DOMINATING the 3rd, then let it get close thanks in part to a completely flukey injury coupled with the stupid 'injury time out' rule. Meanwhile BAMA was up on Michigan into the 4th and it eventually went to overtime. What exactly after watching these games makes you think an overtime game where Michigan had to come back to even get into overtime makes them a 70/30 over bama versus washington who was up by two scores going into the 4th and allowed it to get close in the last 90 seconds of the game is a 50/50 toss up? If anything, the most dominant looking team writ large between those 4 was WASHINGTON. They had an extreme advantage versus Texas's secondary, and to think otherwise (as you both mentioned you did) proves you are watching numbers as opposed to the actual games. Also, you mention 'it is hard to compare teams relative strength when they are siloed in their own conferences'..... What? No shit sherlock, that's why you WATCH THE GAMES. It was clear to anyone who actually watched college football this year that the Pac 12 was leaps and bounds a BETTER conference than the Big 12. Outside of the single decent QB Texas faced all year, Dillon Gabriel who, if you remember, Texas LOST to, they played ZERO good quarterbacks. NONE. That you say you weren't sure how Washingtons QB and Receivers would stack up against the Texas secondary shows because of 'conference relative strength' shows, once again, you looked at numbers as opposed to actually watching games.
Huh michigan made more mistakes then alabama....could of easily been 21-0 at half
congrats to the michigan fans on the win! RTR 🐘
Y’all have a great fan base, love the tide!
@MichiganMan-oz4iz I grew up in Michigan but went to UA. That was a weird one for me. Disappointed we lost but I hope Michigan wins one. Don't blow it. This is Michigan's best chance in my lifetime.
Never forget that at its core, this channel is an SEC homer channel that is disguised as impartial. It used to be called SECFans back in the day. It's also painfully obvious when the SEC gets more game previews than the other conferences combined. I didn't watch the semifinal previews, but I'm admittedly not surprised in the least to hear that they picked the SEC teams in both match ups.
I'm no Michigan or Washington fan, either, so this isn't coming from a disgruntled fan taking a victory lap. The channel's analysis with the model is typically pretty quality and certainly unique, so it's a shame that it has to be presented with such a clear and obvious bias, but c'est la vie.
I agree with this. A lot of ppl overvalue the SEC as a conf, what I want to see is how much and which teams. Especially team by team. Because they might be the best team if you’re talking about the number of great teams but just top to bottom I’d have to disagree. They ignore things like their win % against the ACC and blah blah blah in years that comes up. With the 12 team we will see definitively where everyone ranks
I don't understand comments like this. The SEC has won 13 of the last 17 National Championships (18 counting this season). There's a reason people pick the SEC teams to win a lot and it's because they actually win the game.
@@davida730
edit: realized you weren’t talking to me.. sorry David
…. no problem David. The SEC gets higher ranks. They get more benefit of the doubt when they lose. That puts them in better position to make the post season as a conf. That skews the results. Now, I definitely said they might have the most great teams. Great teams win games. Bama, UGA, and tOSU get 85% of the 5 star talent. 2 of those teams are in the SEC. I think the SEC as a conf is overvalued. There’s no such thing as overvaluing UGA and Bama in a historical sense. The win chips. They get all the talent. Since the conf as a whole is overvalued you get SEC teams ranked higher takin more slots in the preseason. This pushes better teams lower and sometimes completely out. I already said how just the volume skews the results but not playing the best from other confs count as well. I think the SEC was 4-6 in the regular season vs ACC this year? Do we think the ACC is better than the SEC? No. Do we think their top end is as good? No. Yet explain that result
I think the take makes perfect sense. I wasn’t make a point about games won or chips won. I was making a point about perception. When we have more out of conf matchups we will have a better perception of where the confs and the teams stand. That makes perfect sense
@@davida730 I agree with what you’re saying if we are basing it solely on chips won but there’s definitely reason for sayin there is bias. Also, what do you mean by 18 counting this season? The SEC has been eliminated from the playoffs
@@JvariW The problem with inter conference match ups is it’s not apples to apples. Florida was 5-7 this year and lost to FSU, the 13-0 ACC champs. On the flip side GA Tech losing to Ole Miss and UGA doesn’t really prove anything. The playoffs is really the best indicator because the teams are at least sort of equal. Ohio State vs Missouri was decent as well. Also I said 18 because even though the title game hasn’t been played this season, the SEC can’t win it.
Michigan fan here. It’s tough picking winners and losers. You guys do so reasonably. Keep up the good work, and please keep picking against Michigan 😉
Interesting that Alabama outperformed the model from a scoring perspective while Michigan landed where it expected. I would have expected the reverse.
Michigan was the better team by far. It wasn’t even close. Michigan made it close. Not Alabama.
If Washington doesn’t bungle ST, they win by 13+
The only Alabama touchdowns were on short fields. 44 and 55 yards. They were unable to put together sustained drives.
55 is decent. We don't know if it was 10 or 20 yards longer what would have happened. Diesnt really matter. That 1st td they got would have been long if they were further back. That boy busted that 34 yard td. That said. GO BLUE. GO GET THAT NATTY.
Your opening argument is bad and here's why. You claim the prediction for Alabama was more accurate than the model having Michigan by 11 in regulation. Now, if all you look at is the final score than I suppose you would be right but I look at the totality of the game and I saw a Michigan team that was clearly the better team than a flawed Alabama and the one thing that the model was basing it's prediction off of that didn't come to pass was Michigan's strength at Soecial Teams. So if you erase the special teams mistakes from Michigan's overall performance and assume they would have gone in Michigan's favor you see the model was spot on in predicting Michigan in regulation by +10 it's just that Michigan played a statistical outlier of a special teams game so in conclusion you got it wrong and you should just admit you got it wrong and move on.
They wouldn’t want to just flat out admit they’re wrong just because they want to feel right by justifying their pick which is annoying with podcasts
Still saying....Alabama COULD have won this game. Bwaaaaaaaahhhh!!!!!😂😂😂😅😅😅😂
Too much passing from Tommy R. Offense, so familiar. ND had same issue with T. R. as OC when their strength was running , not passing.
Please please please keep picking against Michigan.
6:35 i hope y’all mention that UM made more mistakes than Bama. And still won. They lost the field position battle, missed kicks, messed up trick plays.
My takeaway from the rose bowl is Bama looked clueless on defense. I haven’t seen a defense look this clueless since Clemson couldn’t find OJ Howard big ass running down the field.
They held Michigan to less regulation points than any other team all Year including the supposedly great Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa defenses…
@@thomasfrederick71 now imagine what would’ve happened if they properly communicated the plays and everyone knew their assignment
Milroe consistently ignored the open short receiver and instead chose to throw deep into double coverage. To me that was why the Alabama passing game was ineffective
Alabama absolutely did not rush for 220 yards. Lol. And UMs D line DID DOMINATE ALABAMA. 6 sacks and 10 TFLs. To say otherwise is idiotic and a false narrative. But nice try, trying to slip 220 yards rushing in. Lmao
Can yall just say yall were wrong? Does it hurt yall to say that? Washington proved u wrong. And so did Michigan!
you guys miss Michigan A LOT. you have picked OSU the last 3 years both of you. Understand your point about if its close you made a good pick. OK, however this result I would think is at the lesser end of performance for Michigan. in other words the YPA and YPP for Michigan that actually happened, the win expectancy for Michigan would be higher.
We’re 3 of 5 picking Michigan’s last 5 games we covered. That’s not “A LOT”.
Yall picked Texas, because Texas beat Alabama.... No other reason. What did i tell u on that video, Texas played one good QB all year, and its the only game they lost. They got shredded by Oklahoma.....And they'd get shredded by Washington
I actually think that subconsciously this is exactly why they picked Texas. I straight up told them that was the most incorrect pick they ever made. Washington was Oklahoma on steroids.
@@MH-0101 Precisely.... I don't know how so many people in the national media couldn't see that
Just an FYI, September 23rd was the last game that Jalen McMillan was fully healthy for before the second Oregon game. The outcome of this semifinal was totally predictable. Hence why I straight up told you in the comments of the semi final preview that this would be the most wrong you had ever been on a prediction.
Alabama shutout Michigan for 2 quarters? Dafuq you talking about? Michigan scored in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and OT.
Clicked on this for some analysis not a long drawn out excuse session for why you and the model were wrong. So clear you haven’t actually watched much of penix play. Other than the month where he was hurt with a rib injury which caused him to float a lot of balls and the flu game. He has all the pitches a Penix’s calling card is his accuracy down field. I’ve watched every one of his WA games. Only QB since Mahomes to have back to back 4500 yard seasons. And he was in an air raid system and Penix is not.
You're just making up spit now.... Jus say u were wrong.... what if corum slipped???? What Auburn didn't give up 4th & 31... u can't do that. U picked Alabama to win by 3 and seven. Yall were 10 and 14pts off. Ur model was only 3pts off. Yall r so disingenuous to get on here and act like u barely missed ur picks. Vegas wouldn't exist if they missed their picks by 10-14 pts per game. Vegas power rankings had Michigan by 8........
Michigan was 11 points better... it was obvious
Did they watch the game? It was close with the score but the 2 teams were not equal. Come on due better, what a joke.
Coaches can call plays but cant make players execute! Bamas oline, qb, and inside linebackers are why Bama lost! Bad snaps, poor blocking, and very poor qb play on offense! Not picking up backs out of the backfield and releasing tightends killed the linebackers and safeties!! Bama flat out lost this game because of not executing and not reaching inside for physicality!! When someone hits you in the mouth you either get mad and knock them out or you back down! Bama fid not stand up!!! I believe Bama thought this was gonna be a cakewalk and got busted in the mouth and let Michigan overwhelm them! Embarrassing!! If Milroe is QB next season the same outcome will come! He has all the physical skills in the world but cant read defenses and cant find open receivers! The only times he found wide open receivers this past season were when they were schemed as the play! He has a one track mind and cant go thru all his reads! He stares down where he initially wants to go and misses wide open receivers and checkdowns constantly!
And if Michigan doesn't make uncharacteristic mistakes they probably win by 11 or 12.😂... The snapping is an issue that Bama has been dealing with all year.
Yeah these guys’ take is really sus in the sense that it’s about Alabama playing bad while previously leaving these things out when they picked Bama to win. Makes no sense at all
SEC homers to the max unfortunately. when they opened the segment by talking about how "the model was more wrong than we were!" i cracked up @@kryptokc3800
they definitely let there human SEC bias get in the way of objectively looking at the game and the teams as a whole this season. while generally the SEC is great and unquestionably the best conference, it was definitely down this year because of poor QB play. Alabama had so many questionable and bad games compared to michigan this year i just don’t get how people didn’t see thet
Have fun losing to Washington
@@PurpleHazeVanNederlands Beta
6:00 what is it with this narrative? So many reactions to this game just sum up to "Alabama made a lot of mistakes- that is the main reason they lost." Michigan had PLENTY of mistakes too and it made the game way closer than it needed to be. Michigan missed an extra point, a missed field goal, TWO muffed punts- one which essentially handed Alabama a touchdown by field position, along with a few missed plays like two drops and a flubbed flea-flicker. If you change ANY of those moments- Alabama doesn't even make it to overtime.
Both teams made mistakes. Michigan was the only team to capitalize on the. Alabama didn't lose the game, Michigan won it.
Clemson ran 38 times for 145 yards against Alabama in 2015 so to say they couldn't run it is a little inaccurate. that was 3.8 yards per carry against an elite defense. which I think is ok.
The backpedaling cope is unreal after such an ignorant prediction. You said the SEC was just a different conference because they had more explosive plays and JJ McCarthy’s success was based on cheating. Reality is Michigan had the better: Head coach, Assistants, Lineman, QB, and Team. Only special teams kept it close. 2x 5 stars just beat 18x 5 stars. Saban got outclassed in every way possible, lowest yardage total in 7 years or something.
Alabama most coherent drive at the beginning of the 3rd quarter was killed by those 2 horrendous snaps.
Michigan kept Bama in the game with its own mistakes more so than vice versa
I'm surprised we actually had an opportunity to win given how incompetent our QB play was. Good luck in the natty. Will be rooting for Michigan but am finally a believer in Washington.
God I can't wait for Washington to shut up all the new sidewalk Michigan fans
@@PurpleHazeVanNederlands lmaooo you IDIOT🤣🤣🤣🤣 Michigan handled those tiny little puppies, they shouldn’t have made the playoffs at all
@@PurpleHazeVanNederlands you sound like an IDIOT🤣🤣🤣
I don’t understand how you can talk about Alabama’s mistakes without any mention of Michigan’s absolutely horrific special teams. Your model was closer than y’all were. Michigan wins by 7-10 with an average special teams performance. Alabama didn’t make a bunch of mistakes. They just got outplayed and thoroughly outcoached.
These two kill me we were wrong but we were right we never miss lol
Lol yeah. I would respect a “Yeah, we blew it. Sometimes things happen.” Nobody knows what’s going to happen and it’s ok to be wrong.
The constant “but here’s why we were really right” redirections are tiresome.
It's so frickin disingenuous when they do that. As a content creator, u have to realize that ur gonna miss some of ur picks. But that's when u come back and u tell ur audience that u were wrong. There is nothing wrong with missing a pick. But to come online with we were wrong, but we were kinda right when we were wrong is jus ridiculous
@@Struggle_Streaming_With_BK Yeah, Vegas is right, what, a little over 50% of the time in their lines? Not really sure, but it isn’t 100%. Nobody expects perfection. But we expect honesty.
@B_Dog_33 Vegas isn't off 10-14 points that often. Sure they miss.... that's why they always get 20pct of the pot of rip.
But there would be no Vegas if they missed the spreads by 10 to 14 pts......
Yall stop!!! Mich was the better team!!! Every time the sec lose it’s because they didn’t play their game!!! No Mich made them play that way!!! Yall was wrong just own it!!
Michigan played consistent football for 4 quarters? Did yall watch the game?
Did you watch the video? Because you were, at most, 11 minutes into this 38 minute video when you commented this. We actually note that we think Michigan probably beats Alabama 7 out of 10 times, and it was all due to their consistency.
I think you are totally justified in your Michigan pick and you defense of the pick makes sense. But the Washington pick I think really comes from not keeping up with the team closely enough. In your preview you correctly pointed out that some of the close games for Texas had context that made the team look worse than they actually were. Washington was not given that benefit of the doubt even though they had McMillan injured, the team had the flu, and Penix didn't look right because he had a rib injury. At the start of the season before these things came up they were the best passing attack in the nation. Once they had a month off to get fully healthy they were once again the best passing attack in the nation.
Texas also got bad Ewers in the first half.
People often overlook how inconsistent he is. He can make any throw on the field but can also miss any throw on the field. The only game he consistently hit throws and consistently hit deep throws for the only time in his career was the game against Alabama this year. I had him as the X-factor to either win the game or lose the game based on his performance.
Its ironic turnovers kept Texas in the first half but then when Ewers started to play good in the second half they started fumbling.
@@thomasfrederick71 Your comment and Greenearth's comment are why I picked Washington. It's sad that the Nerd's didn't analyze Washington closely enough when they portray themselves as unbiased. I realized that Washington could not be stopped by the Texas defense. On the other hand and to your comment, it isn't so much as Ewer's play that is inconsistent as much as it is the whole Texas offense. Texas overcomplicates their offense and it leads to Texas stopping themselves which they did in epic fashion throughout the game.
@@mkwy8782 that’s not true at all, they talk more analysis than most people covering college football on TV who are paid to do it for a living.
The first 5-6 minute tirade is a long winded euphemism for “we’ve been wrong about Michigan in their two biggest games and we don’t feel the least bit bad about it. As a matter of fact, here’s our rationalization.” Regardless of my insincere ball busting, you guys have done a good job all year on the channel.
SEC guys just didn't want to give the Michigan D any respect. The model was right - Michigan spotted Bama a TD with a very uncharacteristic dropped punt. You guys also made the mistake of thinking Milroe was way better than he has shown all year. He's an AVERAGE college QB. He's no Michael Penix.
Just admit you were wrong and move on. You picked Penn St, OSU, and Bama. The model doesn’t account for OT 😂
We both picked Michigan to confidently beat Penn St
Do you guys still give Bama's coordinators the advantage? Tommy Rees 😂
I'm getting really tired of seeing Alabama routinely out-coached and out-schemed, especially in big games. Tommy Rees looked like a complete offensive neophyte in comparison to Sherrone Moore. Alabama seemingly hasn't been able to get "easy yards" since 2020, so it wasn't just a Bill O'Brien issue, as we hoped most of last year. I think we read too much into Milroe's performances against LSU and Kentucky, and his big pass to beat Auburn. His limitations as a passer made it almost impossible to sustain drives in this game.
Always appreciate the hard work and no hard feelings 😊. You guys are more reasonable than most of the media making picks. Just please pick Washington in your final prediction 🎉
The only reason to doubt Penix and Wash was their inconsistency over the season. When they play at their best, they are elite. Also, Washington is the most clutch team in the country, which leads one to expect them be at their best in the biggest game.
Their inconsistency had a lot to do with Jalen McMillan out.
Y'all have been going against your own model the entire season and picking against Michigan. Please pick against Michigan in the Natty please.
Do some more coke guy.
Been waiting on this
Why was everyone so sure Texas would win? Washington was a nightmare matchup for them because their secondary was ass all year.
I think your Alabama pick was fair. You picked a close game and it was. Although I think Michigan was solidly the better team and played extremely tight which almost cost them the game. I know you might say Alabama made mistakes too but that is kind of who they are in every game. I don't agree that Texas could have ever beat Washington. To be honest Washington felt at least two touchdowns better than Texas the whole game. I would say Michigan is 7 to 10 points better than Alabama on any given week. What I am more interest in knowing is whether Ohio State at full strength beats Alabama. Super close but I think Ohio State would have won. Basically what I'm saying is, Ohio State was really the fourth best team.