Oscar.. you may want to review the statement that the limit for employment visas is limited to 140k. It is not, if you see the Statutory numbers from previous Visa bulletins (last one per year) you will see a different number every year. Example Visa bulletim 2021: "The fiscal year 2021 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 262,288".
Like I said, there are rules that make these things flexible . One is that unused family visas can go to employment during the following year. That's why during covid we had way more than the 140k limit. And that's way every year since we keep approaching the 140k number. For example in FY24 if I remember the number correctly, we were about 160k in EB green cards . No need to review, it's what I said ...but I cant comment on all the little rules and exceptions, otherwise the video would be one hour long ;) thanks for the comment!!
this is not going to happen again. At that time visas were so many because of the pandemic and consulates were closed. So FB visas were spill-over to EB. Last year they were 160k, this year they will be even less, until returning to 140k in the future. So Oscar is right, with these rules it will get worse because the demand has exploded and the availability of visas is decreasing.
I like doing regularly analysis of spillover and what has been used so far in each quarter because it makes the person predict his/her own case rather than asking others to predict for them
Now in the new portal in India for booking Visa Appointment, it’s no longer possible for L1 blankets to add their dependents because the visa category comes straight out when you add dependence. Have you come across the situation and do you know the solution to it?
@OscarsGreenCard, you have limited your search for these forecasts only over UA-cam. What do you say about some predictions posted in Reddit where people crunch the numbers from USCIS' data/report? I think their predictions are fairly reasonable and one guy actually got it very close to the DOF this fiscal year. USCIS actually has a report on both the demand (approved i-140s) and pending i-485s. DOS as well has its report on number of visas issued. One can then infer from here how many greencards can USCIS issue in a fiscal year and how far the dates can go.
Believe me, I read a lot about the topic in many places, here I just posted three UA-cam examples... My message still stands. I would place my efforts elsewhere rather than trying to predict something for which you never have an up to date dataset, and the data you have is partial and you need to combine a few reports (as you rightfully pointed out).
@@OscarsGreenCard , before anything else, please don't think I'm urging/asking you to make your own forecast. I'm totally aware of what you said in a video months ago that you don't want to burden yourself with forecasts. I'm just here to get your thoughts, put out my thoughts and have a healthy discussion. I partially concur in what you said above. You're right on the datasets. USCIS takes time to release the datasets that serve as basis for their forecasts and so the guys there in reddit had to have some "confidence interval" (though technically in statistics, it's not a confidence interval and that's the reason why they're in quotes). Also, there are datasets that don't "talk to each other". I personally have clicked on some of these datasets and it's really a web of excel sheets before you could wrap your head around these files. To cut through the chase and convey the bottom line, what I wish to say is that forecasting as widely understood in many fields out there is not being very exact with future movements (as in like down to 10 decimal places) but having that degree of confidence in how future movements would hold. Pretty much like how weather forecasts work by being grounded on data. But then again, this brings us to the issue on the first paragraph - data quality. Personally, my approach to these forecasts is to treat them with a grain of salt. They do though have helped some immigrants carry out their immigration plans (such as making some realize that consular processing is a better option for them than AOS). I do though understand your point of view why it's futile to create these forecasts.
@@FonsBonitatis Yeah, I think we basically agree. As long as you understand the limitations of these "predictions" you will be ok. The problem is that many people do not understand that and may put too much faith on them and even make important decisions based on them. The other problem is that many of these youtubers I referred to are misleading and do not provide the disclaimers when they issue these reports (an exception is the H1B guy I portrayed here, who started saying that the prediction is not based on any data; at least he is honest). I do think weather forecasts are much more solid (at least the short term ones) than VB predictions.
Good afternoon from here Nigeria sir, I'm Ayodeji Benjamin Agbanimu. I recently submitted my application for EB2-NIW Advance category, i sent my application on the 20th of September 2024 through DHL to USCIS office in Dallas Texas centre it was received/delivered on the 23rd Sept 2024.but uptill now no acknowledgment of receipt notice. What can i do? Though it's regular processing. I used Nigerian address and i also filled e-notification form. What can i do?
If the US wants to boost its strategy against China (and the BRICS), they should rise the limit for the employment visas. 2014 seems quite far from today 🙄
I miss a few topics from this video: We could have looked at the wait time for the last 2 years to see the exact number. That shows already a trend. I would have been curious (just for fun ... is this video is more for entertainment purposes) to see ChatGPT's prediction (which I actually have, and it is not very bright). And based on the numbers, we could have (again, just for fun) come up with predicted numbers. I even dare to predict the numbers. My prediction is that there will be a month movement for every 3 calendar month. This means, that in 12 months, the visa bulletin will move forward by about 4 months. Is this a scientific prediction? No. But based on the numbers we have, it is an educated out of butt prediction :) Have fun :)
To your first point, I didn't go over that again because I show that graph in every visa bulletin video I make, so I tried to add something new ;) And loved the out of the butt prediction ideas hehe thanks for posting
If lots of cases are reviewed each month, why doesn't the visa bulletin advances? Even for just a little bit It seems everything just doesn't go forward
Hi Oscar.. do you require a letter of future collaboration or support from a company that aligns with your proposed endeavor to prove or show they are willing to collaborate with you in the US for the EB2NIW application?
✅ Link to EB2 NIW online course payhip.com/b/gfuRU
☑ Link to EB-1A online course payhip.com/b/mkQln
Excellent video Oscar! I’m happy I count on you for transparency and facts on this topic
Thanks a lot for your support!
Oscar.. you may want to review the statement that the limit for employment visas is limited to 140k. It is not, if you see the Statutory numbers from previous Visa bulletins (last one per year) you will see a different number every year. Example Visa bulletim 2021: "The fiscal year 2021 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 262,288".
Like I said, there are rules that make these things flexible . One is that unused family visas can go to employment during the following year. That's why during covid we had way more than the 140k limit. And that's way every year since we keep approaching the 140k number. For example in FY24 if I remember the number correctly, we were about 160k in EB green cards . No need to review, it's what I said ...but I cant comment on all the little rules and exceptions, otherwise the video would be one hour long ;) thanks for the comment!!
this is not going to happen again. At that time visas were so many because of the pandemic and consulates were closed. So FB visas were spill-over to EB. Last year they were 160k, this year they will be even less, until returning to 140k in the future. So Oscar is right, with these rules it will get worse because the demand has exploded and the availability of visas is decreasing.
It is a very informative video. Congratulations Oscar.
Keep it going.
Thanks!
For 2024 priority dates the ques will be 36 plus months. Unless they do something. I don't understand why Indians and Chinese even bother to apply.
very honest Oscar, keep doing the good work !
Appreciate your words!
I like doing regularly analysis of spillover and what has been used so far in each quarter because it makes the person predict his/her own case rather than asking others to predict for them
Nothing wrong with that! Thanks for sharing
Nice T-shirt, Oscar!
Thanks Maksim :)
Thank you for being realistic
Thanks!
Now in the new portal in
India for booking Visa Appointment, it’s no longer possible for L1 blankets to add their dependents because the visa category comes straight out when you add dependence. Have you come across the situation and do you know the solution to it?
I'm not familiar with that
What about eb3
@OscarsGreenCard, you have limited your search for these forecasts only over UA-cam. What do you say about some predictions posted in Reddit where people crunch the numbers from USCIS' data/report? I think their predictions are fairly reasonable and one guy actually got it very close to the DOF this fiscal year. USCIS actually has a report on both the demand (approved i-140s) and pending i-485s. DOS as well has its report on number of visas issued. One can then infer from here how many greencards can USCIS issue in a fiscal year and how far the dates can go.
Believe me, I read a lot about the topic in many places, here I just posted three UA-cam examples... My message still stands. I would place my efforts elsewhere rather than trying to predict something for which you never have an up to date dataset, and the data you have is partial and you need to combine a few reports (as you rightfully pointed out).
@@OscarsGreenCard , before anything else, please don't think I'm urging/asking you to make your own forecast. I'm totally aware of what you said in a video months ago that you don't want to burden yourself with forecasts. I'm just here to get your thoughts, put out my thoughts and have a healthy discussion.
I partially concur in what you said above. You're right on the datasets. USCIS takes time to release the datasets that serve as basis for their forecasts and so the guys there in reddit had to have some "confidence interval" (though technically in statistics, it's not a confidence interval and that's the reason why they're in quotes). Also, there are datasets that don't "talk to each other". I personally have clicked on some of these datasets and it's really a web of excel sheets before you could wrap your head around these files.
To cut through the chase and convey the bottom line, what I wish to say is that forecasting as widely understood in many fields out there is not being very exact with future movements (as in like down to 10 decimal places) but having that degree of confidence in how future movements would hold. Pretty much like how weather forecasts work by being grounded on data. But then again, this brings us to the issue on the first paragraph - data quality.
Personally, my approach to these forecasts is to treat them with a grain of salt. They do though have helped some immigrants carry out their immigration plans (such as making some realize that consular processing is a better option for them than AOS). I do though understand your point of view why it's futile to create these forecasts.
@@FonsBonitatis Yeah, I think we basically agree. As long as you understand the limitations of these "predictions" you will be ok. The problem is that many people do not understand that and may put too much faith on them and even make important decisions based on them. The other problem is that many of these youtubers I referred to are misleading and do not provide the disclaimers when they issue these reports (an exception is the H1B guy I portrayed here, who started saying that the prediction is not based on any data; at least he is honest). I do think weather forecasts are much more solid (at least the short term ones) than VB predictions.
Does the ALL COUNTRIES sheet in the USCIS report include India and China?
Yes
Good afternoon from here Nigeria sir, I'm Ayodeji Benjamin Agbanimu. I recently submitted my application for EB2-NIW Advance category, i sent my application on the 20th of September 2024 through DHL to USCIS office in Dallas Texas centre it was received/delivered on the 23rd Sept 2024.but uptill now no acknowledgment of receipt notice. What can i do? Though it's regular processing.
I used Nigerian address and i also filled e-notification form. What can i do?
They are taking a few weeks to issue receipts so I would wait a bit longer
Hello pls how dis you get your Money Order to pay your from Nigeria, Regards, Ifeyinwa Okoli
Pls how do I get Money Order for the fees? Am in Lagos. Regards Ifeyinwa Okoli
I used credit card of someone
I also try getting money order but i couldn't
Are u in Lagos? Am in Lagos, I just u my number
Oscar, thank you for the video. This Simon Shitty (shetty) guy is so annoying and just selling EB1A course with click bait titles. 😂
If the US wants to boost its strategy against China (and the BRICS), they should rise the limit for the employment visas. 2014 seems quite far from today 🙄
Agree!
We should start a green card lobby
Sounds like a great idea
I am from India, my priority date for EB1A is feb, 2024
When do you thinking can tiket I 485
When do you think I can file i485
Feb 2032
Please watch this video to understand my opinion
prediction of the visa bulletin is the same as the prediction of the weather after one year hihihi
hehe, that's a good analogy
I miss a few topics from this video:
We could have looked at the wait time for the last 2 years to see the exact number. That shows already a trend.
I would have been curious (just for fun ... is this video is more for entertainment purposes) to see ChatGPT's prediction (which I actually have, and it is not very bright).
And based on the numbers, we could have (again, just for fun) come up with predicted numbers.
I even dare to predict the numbers. My prediction is that there will be a month movement for every 3 calendar month. This means, that in 12 months, the visa bulletin will move forward by about 4 months. Is this a scientific prediction? No. But based on the numbers we have, it is an educated out of butt prediction :)
Have fun :)
To your first point, I didn't go over that again because I show that graph in every visa bulletin video I make, so I tried to add something new ;)
And loved the out of the butt prediction ideas hehe thanks for posting
If lots of cases are reviewed each month, why doesn't the visa bulletin advances? Even for just a little bit
It seems everything just doesn't go forward
Hi Oscar.. do you require a letter of future collaboration or support from a company that aligns with your proposed endeavor to prove or show they are willing to collaborate with you in the US for the EB2NIW application?
It's not a requirement but will definitely help
You can’t make a prediction because it’s completely not based on a method. It’s annoying because no one knows unless you’re in the government. lol 😅
That!