In this video, I endeavor to consolidate the learnings from the last three episodes of this series to build an investment strategy that can potentially help navigate this on-going rally right up to the eventual “market peak”, and also help reliably get out before a material correction kicks in. The strategy relies of key market inflection points and parameters such as the balance in the Reverse Repo (RRP), peak in Fed Funds Rate (FFR) and Inversion of the Yield Curve to predict when equity markets could potentially top out and make way for the next large correction/crash!
Was looking for these logics along with your disclaimer which is nothing is holy grail. You deserve more viewership and appreciations. Thanks a lot sir!
I am writing this just after I happen to comment to my wife that this 50-minute video is one of the best videos in almost 10 years of myself in stock market which taught me very important lessons that I need to carry with me throughout my financial career and the top few parameters that I need to teach my kith and kin who would like to join the stock market. Thanks so much My Friend. The least I could do is to Like and Subscribe. Love You.
Absolutely overwhelmed to read your comment... this made my day! Many thanks for such generous praise and appreciation! God bless you... I promise to keep working harder still to produce similar content in the future too!
There are hardly any creators explaining these important macro concepts with so much simplicity. I watched this video for the first time, the day you uploaded it, and the key learnings stayed with me. I just came back and re-watched the entire thing at 1x speed in the light of Nikkei (and other markets) crash. 😇
Sir, I have rarely seen such insightful Gyaan being given away for free. Quality of viwership matters for such highly complicated subject. Thats why there are less number of views.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video! If we continue to be showered with love and support of viewers like you, I am sure even the views will pick up over time!
The details mentioned by you here are an absolute must for people following the indices. Not sure why so less views . Thanks for explaining these complex terms in simple words. Really appreciate it !
Many thanks for such generous appreciation... very happy to know that you liked the video! I look forward to the continued support and love of viewers like you, which should help push up the viewership on the channel in due course
Brilliant analysis sir. Two of these indicators have already passed with the fed cutting rates & now the yield curve un-inverting. The funds in the RRP as well are very close to just $100 billion. Are you currently reducing your allocations in equity or planning to wait through the amber zone, for a final upward rally in the green zone?
This is by far one of the great video that i watched regarding macro economics and I come back to see this video at least every month just to remind myself what is impending.. Thanks Indranil..
Many thanks... glad you liked the video My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content
My best guess is, that the FED will time this, so it has the LEAST direct influence on the US presidential election on November 05, 2024. XLNT information. Probably the best video I have seen on this topic so far. Thank you so much, Mr. Guha, for your very useful and clear explanations. Many greetings from Denmark.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video... happy especially so to see this kind of appreciation and support pouring in from viewers based in places outside of India, US and UAE, where I thought most of my viewers are based out of. Agree, the Fed will do all it can to prevent any large scale disruptions in markets till the November elections, but I am NOT sure if it would necessarily be successful in that.... 2008 and 2020 were election years too, and the Fed was under pressure even then from the incumbent administrations to keep things from falling apart till election day, but it's NOT as if Fed was able to do that. Even if you discount 2020, which was a pandemic-induced recession, and hence beyond the Fed's control, 2008 is a classic example how onset of recessions isn't really something that the Fed can prevent, or even delay beyond election day for that matter. Once again, many thanks indeed for your love and support!
Sir, This has been one of the best videos I ever watched on equity market. So enlightening and informative. I highly recommend the viewers must forward in huge numbers to the serious people for their knowledge even if they are not dealing in equity market. these kind of subjects must be included in early education too.
Awesome, unexplored areas are coming out of the darkest canvas ......A new territory of knowledge. Thank you sir for sharing your knowledge and expertise
This is one of the best videos on strategies to be incorporated during a time of expected near term market crash. Your knowledge is praise worthy, your hard work is commendable and presentation is awesome. Everything definitely looks logical and based on real, factual data driven, so very very authentic. I am surely be keeping an eye using the 3 parameters discussed, but only time can tell, how far this can be accurate. But this surely looks and sounds accurate. All the best wishes for you
Excellent video, sir! The level of analysis is extremely detailed and the correlations drawn make a lot of sense. However, I wish to ask a few questions - 1. The analysis for RRP and FFR is based on 2 events, 2008 and 2020. These 2 events in themselves were detrimental to the economy. The current scenario does not foresee any such major event happening. How does one factor in these things? 2. Yield curve inversion is a solid predictor of an upcoming recession. In this case, however, how much of the yield curve inversion be attributed to the Fed doing so to curb inflation rather than an investor sentiment of fear? From my understanding, when it can be attributed to the Fed, recession isn't that strongly correlated. Maybe that is why we are seeing an inverted yield curve for a long period and the quantum of inversion is also high. It would be great to know your thoughts on these!
Top notch explanation in a simple, lay men's language. I am very lucky and gifted to learn this precious information from you. Hat's off ! for the pain you took to teach this most important content.
Thank you. Loved the analysis - to the point but also detailed at the right spots. Loved the visualization and your presentation of the topics. Subscribed to your channel.
Data on all the three market parameters I have highlighted in this video is publicly available… you can keep track of the same at: Data on Reverse Repo (RRP): fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD Data on Fed Funds Rate fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS Data on Yield Curve: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M#0 (Yield curve is negative right now i.e. as of 8 Apr, 2024… once the value of the Yield curve data available on the above URL turns positive, that’s the point the Yield Curve would be said to have “un-inverted”)
Wondeful Analysis backed with Historical Data.. Thank u so much for such Informative session worth Learning the Stock Market charts to understand the Trends to secure the Individual Capital.. Thanks a Lot..
Amazing video. Great work and contribution to humanity. Thank you for educating others on our financial systems, as they are the current backbone and core of our civilization (A problem in itself).
Very much informative sir. Last 30 seconds disclaimer also. Because during past incidents indian markets were highly dependant on FII, but now DIIs offsets FII outflows. Let us see. Thank you for your valuable information sir
Data on all the three market parameters I have highlighted in this video is publicly available… you can keep track of the same at: Data on Reverse Repo (RRP): fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD Data on Fed Funds Rate fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS Data on Yield Curve: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M#0 (Yield curve is negative right now i.e. as of 8 Apr, 2024… once the value of the Yield curve data available on the above URL turns positive, that’s the point the Yield Curve would be said to have “un-inverted”)
This is a very informative video and will make me take informative decision in the market when there is a really uncertainty of whats coming next. Thank you Sir.
Such a complex topic explained with such eloquence and clarity, thank you very much Indraanil. Appreciate all the work that may have gone in the prep. You are a very good teacher.
Good analysis indeed ..... For a person like me who is far from understanding economic dynamics ..... Its a good teaching ..... Hope you will do further video and let us help in timing the market as best as we can
Very informative course material. Watched the video multiple times to understand how to exit the equity market at what point by leveraging the most out of the final rally. Using copilot to get the answers to those 3 questions. Also could not follow as where would get the answers to the 3 questions from your side? Is there any web portal section where we can get these values from?
Data on all the three market parameters I have highlighted in this video is publicly available… you can keep track of the same at: Data on Reverse Repo (RRP): fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD Data on Fed Funds Rate fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS Data on Yield Curve: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M#0 (Yield curve is negative right now i.e. as of 8 Apr, 2024… once the value of the Yield curve data available on the above URL turns positive, that’s the point the Yield Curve would be said to have “un-inverted”)
Many thanks Mallika for such kind words... glad you liked the video My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
Yes, I will endeavor to post follow-up videos on this topic at regular intervals going forward, and I will do so with the intent of sharing with my audience how things are shaping up with the three recession/crash indicators I have highlighted in this video… please do consider subscribing to this channel, so that you do not miss out on any of the update videos that I intend to post on this topic going forward
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video I am not a real estate / housing market expert, but my first principle thinking suggests that as and when there is a big drawdown in equity markets, that should have a spillover effect on the real estate markets too... so such times should be good not just for picking stocks at a bargain, but for buying housing properties at a discount too!
Only a few market intellectual can say this about market correlation with in deep with fed rate and RRP fabulous presentation guha sir.....Best wishes for u
Very high quality macro economics information you described very easily...thaks a lot for the three indicators....please make a video on how to bottom fishing during recession/ market crash? Please reply.... thanks in advance
Many thanks for the super kind words... glad you liked the video My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content
Excellent Neil !! Now please let us know URGENTLY as to how to invest and keep our funds (which we withdraw from MF and Stocks) after June 2024 ? FDs, Bonds, Gold ?
Great informational video. Thank you. Couple of things are different when compared to previous events, 1) USA economy is still on strong foot, of course there is never ending debate on soft vs hard landing. 2) 6T dollars still sitting on sidelines 3) Indian market and economy is more mature and robust now.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video I agree, things continue to look up for US economy for now, and liquidity continues to be healthy, which is why I have been unequivocal that one should remain fully invested in markets for now... but if history is anything to go by, this can't last forever... laws of economics catch up and the cycle eventually comes to its logical end
Great analysis! But a couple of questions: 1. How can I monitor things like reverse repo balance? 2. Can any of these factors also be linked to the US elections?
Please check the description of my most recent video available at: ua-cam.com/video/boaUli4oAkg/v-deo.html I have included the links for the source of data for all the three parameters there
Many thanks... glad you liked the video I will soon present details of our core investment strategy, in which NIFTY's PE is an integral input parameter... will feature the startegy in a video to be released soon... do stay tuned
Very indepth and clear explanation of potential market tops. What do you think about the US FED pulling off a soft landing and rate cuts in time wiithout the following recession? Will NIFTY continue its upward rise without correction then or are there internal economic factors that can predict a top , regardless of US policy?
I am really surprised by your persistence and conviction to prepare the audiences for a crash and its timings amidst prevaling circumstances. Stock market trading and investing is not about timing or predicting the markets, its all about trading and investing strategy and risk management. Opportunities always exist in the markets during all the phases e.g., Downtrend, Accumlation, Uptrend and Distribution in sectorial rotation. Even market crashes present the opportunity and even in the worst of the fall there are strategic buyers who enter during such crashes because their risk management and strategy is well in place. Thus in any circumstances one should not ever predict the markets and its timings and strategize in anticipation.
Very informative and well explained. Domestic flow and SIP money can keep elevated for long. Auto sales in India is better way to forcast please do some analysis.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video Also great point around domestic flows... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus. I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that. I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at: ua-cam.com/video/ya-d8kSFzDE/v-deo.html (watch from 08:11) I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details
Absolutely mindblowing. It is amazing how you connect the theory and its application to derive meaningful insights. I believe the analysis was spot on but I'd request you to address even more fundamental questions. For instance, yield curve inversion signals an upcoming recession and yet the Indian market continues to rally, why? Is it because FIIs find emerging economies a better option then or something else?
Many thanks for the super kind words... glad you liked the video! There is nothing extra-ordinary in markets rally once the yield curve inverts... that's the usual trend... once the yield curve inverts, while that means that the count-down to the next recession starts from that point onwards, the inversion also typically kick-starts the most violent last leg of the melt-up, which typically goes on till the yield curve finally "un-inverts". This is how markets have behaved forever. For e.g., the yield curve inverted around Jun-July of 2006 - a good 18 months before the onset of the recession in early 2008. NIFTY was at around 3,000 points then. Over the next 18 months, NIFTY doubled to 6,000+ (and then recession started and the NIFTY corrected by a whopping 60% to around 2,500 points). What is playing out right now is almost the same movie - the yield curve inverted in Nov 2022, and since then what we have witnessed is arguably the most violent leg of the on-going rally
Data on all the three market parameters I have highlighted in this video is publicly available… you can keep track of the same at: Data on Reverse Repo (RRP): fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD Data on Fed Funds Rate fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS Data on Yield Curve: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M#0 (Yield curve is negative right now… once the value of the Yield curve data available on the above URL turns positive, that’s the point the Yield Curve would be said to have “un-inverted”)
Very interesting perspective. Is it assumed in this theory that Indian stock market is widely influenced by FII/FPI investments? Because though FIIs have been withdrawing big time recently, retail investors have held the market high
Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video I have provided link to the data source where you can find data on where FFR is currently and how it has moved historically in the description of the video
Most of my thesis is with regards to US market first... A recession in the US I believe will first cause a stock market correction there, and in turn a correction here in India
Sir, deepest thanks for sharing this knowledge & strengthening us "the retail investors". Although I do have one curiosity, we are getting around 25k Cr of monthly SiPs. What is the size of this liquidity relative to what may come in from FIIS?
Great question... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 20,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. This is a far cry from what we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling a mere 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said that, I believe we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is now a growing feeling amongst analysts in India that the scale of our domestic flows is now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus. Markets are bound to correct at the end of a business cycle, once it becomes clear that an economy in distress can no longer provide any justification to lofty stocks market valuations! There is nothing extraordinary in that... this is part of market cycle that has been on for decades (in fact for over a century in case of the US). And this will happen irrespective of how strong domestic flows are! If flows alone could prevent large stock market corrections, then markets like US would never see downturns of the sort that were witnessed in 2008 or 2020, given the scale of flows the US markets attract NOT just from domestic US based investors, but from investors around the world. In case of India though, what would be different is that - in previous cycles, a large drawdown in our markets would cause pain to both FIIs and domestic investors alike. But from now on, any such drawdown is likely to almost entirely hurt retail investors only! In earlier cycles, especially in 2008, when FIIs started selling after the start of rate cuts in US, they themselves had to take the full brunt of their exit, since markets started to correct sharply as soon as FIIs started selling. Hence FIIs themselves had to endure the pain too for the drawdown that was triggered by their selling. But that won’t be the case from now on… our strong domestic flows would provide FIIs an easy exit and would allow them to dump their over-valued junk, most probably at a premium, and that too just in time before the recession hits US! And by the time, s*** finally hits the fan, it would be our poor domestic/SIP investors who would be found holding the garbage bag with all the junk dumped by FIIs! I have delved into this in the following video: ua-cam.com/video/W2gs9fpPwJI/v-deo.html
Will soon share an invetsment startegy in a video to be released soon, in which I will discuss how to invest, especially during times like the one we are going thru right now, where markets are at absolute all-time highs!
Sir do guide and cation retail investors well in time as to when to. exit , enter or continue because I have lost my hard earned money during the 2008 recession. Regards 🙏
I am not a real estate / housing market expert, but my first principle thinking and historical track record of the US housing market both suggest that as and when there is a big drawdown in equity markets, that ought to have a spillover effect on the real estate markets too... so such times should be good not just for picking stocks at a bargain, but for bargain hunting in the real estate market too!
Brilliant analysis sir, loved the video. So glad i found your channel sir, I was really keen on content on effects of global macro on Indian markets. Wanted to know after the RRP to 0 do think the US TGA might take on the role of injecting liquidity for a few more months? Thanks
![WE GOT ACCESS TO GPT-3! [Epic Special Edition]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/iccd86vOz3w/mqdefault.jpg)
In this video, I endeavor to consolidate the learnings from the last three episodes of this series to build an investment strategy that can potentially help navigate this on-going rally right up to the eventual “market peak”, and also help reliably get out before a material correction kicks in. The strategy relies of key market inflection points and parameters such as the balance in the Reverse Repo (RRP), peak in Fed Funds Rate (FFR) and Inversion of the Yield Curve to predict when equity markets could potentially top out and make way for the next large correction/crash!
If possible then make a vedio on the recovery phase of an economy like emerging country which sector done well in term of stock performance. .
sir today fed rate meet is happening.what will happen to usd ...strong or weak
Excellent Information.How could we know the live condition of this 3 parameters. Please mention the way....!
Havent seen such detailed and logical reasoning for market peaking and correction. Hats off for sharing amazing information.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Was looking for these logics along with your disclaimer which is nothing is holy grail. You deserve more viewership and appreciations. Thanks a lot sir!
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
For a housewife who has started her equity investment journey, this is what I needed. Thank you.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Very well put together. I'll actively keep an eye on all three indicators. Subscribed.
Many thanks for kind words... glad you liked the video
I am writing this just after I happen to comment to my wife that this 50-minute video is one of the best videos in almost 10 years of myself in stock market which taught me very important lessons that I need to carry with me throughout my financial career and the top few parameters that I need to teach my kith and kin who would like to join the stock market. Thanks so much My Friend. The least I could do is to Like and Subscribe. Love You.
💯 +1 percent agree dear ❤
Absolutely overwhelmed to read your comment... this made my day!
Many thanks for such generous praise and appreciation! God bless you... I promise to keep working harder still to produce similar content in the future too!
There are hardly any creators explaining these important macro concepts with so much simplicity. I watched this video for the first time, the day you uploaded it, and the key learnings stayed with me. I just came back and re-watched the entire thing at 1x speed in the light of Nikkei (and other markets) crash. 😇
Sir, I have rarely seen such insightful Gyaan being given away for free. Quality of viwership matters for such highly complicated subject. Thats why there are less number of views.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video!
If we continue to be showered with love and support of viewers like you, I am sure even the views will pick up over time!
One of the best videos on timing the markets , very informative and interesting 👍
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Excellent content... logical and well explained video supported by source of data in the description. Keep on doing good work… thanks
Many Thanks... Glad you like the content
The details mentioned by you here are an absolute must for people following the indices. Not sure why so less views . Thanks for explaining these complex terms in simple words. Really appreciate it !
Many thanks for such generous appreciation... very happy to know that you liked the video! I look forward to the continued support and love of viewers like you, which should help push up the viewership on the channel in due course
Brilliant analysis sir. Two of these indicators have already passed with the fed cutting rates & now the yield curve un-inverting. The funds in the RRP as well are very close to just $100 billion. Are you currently reducing your allocations in equity or planning to wait through the amber zone, for a final upward rally in the green zone?
This is by far one of the great video that i watched regarding macro economics and I come back to see this video at least every month just to remind myself what is impending.. Thanks Indranil..
Great work Indranil! Highly informative videos presented in a very easy to understand format. Look forward to your videos
Many thanks for these kind words... glad you liked the content
Thanks for such a detailed learning video.
Glad you liked the video
Amazing!. Quality of content is great . Looking forward to more such insightful content from you.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content
Fantastic video...Thank you Indranil...This knowledge is awesome...
My best guess is, that the FED will time this, so it has the LEAST direct influence on the US presidential election on November 05, 2024. XLNT information. Probably the best video I have seen on this topic so far. Thank you so much, Mr. Guha, for your very useful and clear explanations. Many greetings from Denmark.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video... happy especially so to see this kind of appreciation and support pouring in from viewers based in places outside of India, US and UAE, where I thought most of my viewers are based out of.
Agree, the Fed will do all it can to prevent any large scale disruptions in markets till the November elections, but I am NOT sure if it would necessarily be successful in that.... 2008 and 2020 were election years too, and the Fed was under pressure even then from the incumbent administrations to keep things from falling apart till election day, but it's NOT as if Fed was able to do that. Even if you discount 2020, which was a pandemic-induced recession, and hence beyond the Fed's control, 2008 is a classic example how onset of recessions isn't really something that the Fed can prevent, or even delay beyond election day for that matter.
Once again, many thanks indeed for your love and support!
Sir, This has been one of the best videos I ever watched on equity market. So enlightening and informative. I highly recommend the viewers must forward in huge numbers to the serious people for their knowledge even if they are not dealing in equity market. these kind of subjects must be included in early education too.
Many many thanks for such generous praise.... . glad you liked the video
Interesting analysis. Liked it very much.
Many thanks... really glad you liked the video
Wow. What an analysis. Bang on. I have used ffr and yeild conversion. Now rrp is new tool in my toolbag. Excellent work.
Many thanks... glad you found the video to be useful
Awesome, unexplored areas are coming out of the darkest canvas ......A new territory of knowledge.
Thank you sir for sharing your knowledge and expertise
Many many thanks... glad you liked the video
This is one of the best videos on strategies to be incorporated during a time of expected near term market crash. Your knowledge is praise worthy, your hard work is commendable and presentation is awesome. Everything definitely looks logical and based on real, factual data driven, so very very authentic. I am surely be keeping an eye using the 3 parameters discussed, but only time can tell, how far this can be accurate. But this surely looks and sounds accurate. All the best wishes for you
Never seen such detailed information on such subjects, thank you for your efforts and guidance
Truly a valuable information n beautifully explained…. Would love to listen n gain knowledge from you, thanks
Many thanks...glad you liked my content
One of the best analysis I saw on the web till now
Excellent insights, highly helpful. Much appreciated Mr.Indranil
Many thanks... glad you liked my content
Indranil hope you will tell us when the 3 conditions are met. Obviously we don’t monitor these parameters everyday.
Such an amazing video.🎉
Thank you so much for rhe valuable learning.
If I am able to take a timely exit, I am coming to meet you with a gift 😊
Super knowledgeable video. Pls keep posting the wisdom.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video!
Great analysis. I sent my thanks to you
Thank you so much for such a strong show of love and support for my content... Much appreciated
Excellent video, sir! The level of analysis is extremely detailed and the correlations drawn make a lot of sense.
However, I wish to ask a few questions -
1. The analysis for RRP and FFR is based on 2 events, 2008 and 2020. These 2 events in themselves were detrimental to the economy. The current scenario does not foresee any such major event happening. How does one factor in these things?
2. Yield curve inversion is a solid predictor of an upcoming recession. In this case, however, how much of the yield curve inversion be attributed to the Fed doing so to curb inflation rather than an investor sentiment of fear? From my understanding, when it can be attributed to the Fed, recession isn't that strongly correlated. Maybe that is why we are seeing an inverted yield curve for a long period and the quantum of inversion is also high.
It would be great to know your thoughts on these!
Probably the best detailed analysis on the market. Thank you Sir.
Many thanks for these super kind words... glad you liked the video
Top notch explanation in a simple, lay men's language. I am very lucky and gifted to learn this precious information from you. Hat's off ! for the pain you took to teach this most important content.
Many thanks for the generous appreciation... really glad you liked the video
Wow, what an explanation. Hats off sir
Thank you. Loved the analysis - to the point but also detailed at the right spots. Loved the visualization and your presentation of the topics. Subscribed to your channel.
Many many thanks for such generous praise and appreciation... really glad you liked the video
Where can we get the data for all the three indicators
+1
Data on all the three market parameters I have highlighted in this video is publicly available… you can keep track of the same at:
Data on Reverse Repo (RRP):
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
Data on Fed Funds Rate
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Data on Yield Curve:
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M#0
(Yield curve is negative right now i.e. as of 8 Apr, 2024… once the value of the Yield curve data available on the above URL turns positive, that’s the point the Yield Curve would be said to have “un-inverted”)
Your analysis is very detailed and could understand most of it..thank you..
Many thanks, glad it was helpful!
Wondeful Analysis backed with Historical Data.. Thank u so much for such Informative session worth Learning the Stock Market charts to understand the Trends to secure the Individual Capital.. Thanks a Lot..
Many many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video
Subscribed immediately...wow what an analysis
Many thanks for generous appreciation... glad you liked the video
Amazing video. Great work and contribution to humanity. Thank you for educating others on our financial systems, as they are the current backbone and core of our civilization (A problem in itself).
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
Very much informative sir. Last 30 seconds disclaimer also. Because during past incidents indian markets were highly dependant on FII, but now DIIs offsets FII outflows. Let us see. Thank you for your valuable information sir
Many thanks
Glad you liked the video
Just a amazing content with all insights. Will keep eyes on it.. Thanks for sharing such valuable information.
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
Many many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video
Very very informative. One of the finest video have seen so far.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
How to check RRP, FFR regularly, where can I get that data?
Very good video 🎉
Data on all the three market parameters I have highlighted in this video is publicly available… you can keep track of the same at:
Data on Reverse Repo (RRP):
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
Data on Fed Funds Rate
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Data on Yield Curve:
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M#0
(Yield curve is negative right now i.e. as of 8 Apr, 2024… once the value of the Yield curve data available on the above URL turns positive, that’s the point the Yield Curve would be said to have “un-inverted”)
This is a very informative video and will make me take informative decision in the market when there is a really uncertainty of whats coming next. Thank you Sir.
Many thanks for the super kind words.... Glad you liked the video
Excellent historical analysis sir. Kudos!!
Certainly gave a new and very important perspective in timing the markets
Many many thanks.... glad you liked the video
Hi sir ! Great content ! What’s the impact of rate cuts on real estate and recession in canada and US.
Lots of wishes and appreciation from toronto 😊
How can i set a trigger or a tracker for this ?
What about unemployment data? Is it lowest or highest just before the crash?
Such a complex topic explained with such eloquence and clarity, thank you very much Indraanil. Appreciate all the work that may have gone in the prep. You are a very good teacher.
Many many thanks for such generous appreciation... glad you liked the video
Good analysis indeed ..... For a person like me who is far from understanding economic dynamics ..... Its a good teaching ..... Hope you will do further video and let us help in timing the market as best as we can
Many thanks... glad you found the content useful
And thanks once again for subscribing to the channel
Excellent session - no parallels thank you so much sir for sharing your valuable insights
Many thanks... really glad you liked the video
Very informative course material.
Watched the video multiple times to understand how to exit the equity market at what point by leveraging the most out of the final rally. Using copilot to get the answers to those 3 questions. Also could not follow as where would get the answers to the 3 questions from your side? Is there any web portal section where we can get these values from?
links to data sources for all the three market parameters I have talked about in the video are there in the Description section of the video
Very useful information. How will we monitor all these parameters. Please guide. Great efforts by you.
Data on all the three market parameters I have highlighted in this video is publicly available… you can keep track of the same at:
Data on Reverse Repo (RRP):
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
Data on Fed Funds Rate
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Data on Yield Curve:
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M#0
(Yield curve is negative right now i.e. as of 8 Apr, 2024… once the value of the Yield curve data available on the above URL turns positive, that’s the point the Yield Curve would be said to have “un-inverted”)
Jabardast, too good. Never come across such valuable analysis. Its simply superb. Thank you & indeed grateful.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Amazing video ! Salute your knowledge ‘ never seen sucha welle explained video
Many thanks Mallika for such kind words... glad you liked the video
My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content
Wow!! Just Wow!! Indranil... the clarity of explanation is beyond 2 Wow's
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video
Yes, that's the key motivation - to explain these complex concepts without making them sound like rocket science!
Will you be making a video before the correction starts or when all these three events coinsides.
Yes, I will endeavor to post follow-up videos on this topic at regular intervals going forward, and I will do so with the intent of sharing with my audience how things are shaping up with the three recession/crash indicators I have highlighted in this video… please do consider subscribing to this channel, so that you do not miss out on any of the update videos that I intend to post on this topic going forward
Wahooo...what a great analysis..salute..!!
Sir, pls also guide on how do real estate react in such times as shown in the video
Many thanks for the kind words... very happy that you liked the video
I am not a real estate / housing market expert, but my first principle thinking suggests that as and when there is a big drawdown in equity markets, that should have a spillover effect on the real estate markets too... so such times should be good not just for picking stocks at a bargain, but for buying housing properties at a discount too!
This video is warning bell for June 2024.
A short correct in April is needed. A flash news coming in April.
Excellent ❤❤..
I added you in my watch list..
Thank you so much 🙂
Thank you very much, Sir
I am a fan of the CLARITY of your expression of so deep subject.
GOD BLESS YOU
ALWAYS
Many thanks for the generous appreciation... glad you liked the video!
Look forward to your continued love and support for upcoming videos as well!
Thanks Mr. Guha..... Hope can able to utilize this strategy and execute.....🌳🌳🍀🍀🌿🌿🌾🌾💐💐
@IndraanilGuha Good evening,
I raised one correction in RRP videoat time stamp 20:47, just now as comment.
Can you review please.
Only a few market intellectual can say this about market correlation with in deep with fed rate and RRP fabulous presentation guha sir.....Best wishes for u
Many many thanks for the kind words... really glad you liked the video
Many thanks Sir for such kind words... really glad you liked the video
It is very usful to plan exit strategy. Thanks.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Where to get these charts of yeild and balance in Rrp which u showed
Brilliant analysis of correlation between yield curve inversion and uninversion and stock market indices.
Many thanks for the super kind words.... glad you found the content to be useful
Very high quality macro economics information you described very easily...thaks a lot for the three indicators....please make a video on how to bottom fishing during recession/ market crash? Please reply.... thanks in advance
Many thanks for the super kind words... glad you liked the video
My primary motivation is just that - to make things easy, so that anyone - even those NOT from a finance background - can understand my content
Excellent Neil !! Now please let us know URGENTLY as to how to invest and keep our funds (which we withdraw from MF and Stocks) after June 2024 ? FDs, Bonds, Gold ?
Will share my market outlook from time to time, but for now I am definitely NOT calling for withdrawing any investment after June 2024
Subscribed as a member sir based on so much value you're giving
Welcome aboard
Many thanks... very glad you liked the content
Great informational video. Thank you. Couple of things are different when compared to previous events, 1) USA economy is still on strong foot, of course there is never ending debate on soft vs hard landing. 2) 6T dollars still sitting on sidelines 3) Indian market and economy is more mature and robust now.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
I agree, things continue to look up for US economy for now, and liquidity continues to be healthy, which is why I have been unequivocal that one should remain fully invested in markets for now... but if history is anything to go by, this can't last forever... laws of economics catch up and the cycle eventually comes to its logical end
Great analysis! But a couple of questions:
1. How can I monitor things like reverse repo balance?
2. Can any of these factors also be linked to the US elections?
I think he has answered and provided links to all these .. in comments below.. check and you'll find maybe..
Please check the description of my most recent video available at:
ua-cam.com/video/boaUli4oAkg/v-deo.html
I have included the links for the source of data for all the three parameters there
If you can add Nifty PE along with this three conditions, will that help.. Eye opening insight and appreciate meticulous data collection
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
I will soon present details of our core investment strategy, in which NIFTY's PE is an integral input parameter... will feature the startegy in a video to be released soon... do stay tuned
Very indepth and clear explanation of potential market tops. What do you think about the US FED pulling off a soft landing and rate cuts in time wiithout the following recession? Will NIFTY continue its upward rise without correction then or are there internal economic factors that can predict a top , regardless of US policy?
This video should reach all new investors to save their capital and future.. very useful information.. Thanks for your time
Many thanks for the generous appreciation... glad you liked the video!
Look forward to your continued love and support for upcoming videos as well!
I am really surprised by your persistence and conviction to prepare the audiences for a crash and its timings amidst prevaling circumstances. Stock market trading and investing is not about timing or predicting the markets, its all about trading and investing strategy and risk management. Opportunities always exist in the markets during all the phases e.g., Downtrend, Accumlation, Uptrend and Distribution in sectorial rotation. Even market crashes present the opportunity and even in the worst of the fall there are strategic buyers who enter during such crashes because their risk management and strategy is well in place. Thus in any circumstances one should not ever predict the markets and its timings and strategize in anticipation.
Very informative and well explained. Domestic flow and SIP money can keep elevated for long. Auto sales in India is better way to forcast please do some analysis.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Also great point around domestic flows... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 19,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. But we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is a growing feeling, I believe amongst analysts in India that the scale of domestic flows are now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus.
I do agree that thanks to our strong domestic flows, selling by FIIs will NOT cause the sort of drawdowns in Indian markets anymore that we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling just about 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said, I don't think our domestic flows are so material that Indian markets would be insulated from the adverse impacts as and when, let's say the US economy goes into a recession and there is a large correction US markets as a result of that.
I have delved into this to some extent in an earlier Q&A video, which is available at:
ua-cam.com/video/ya-d8kSFzDE/v-deo.html
(watch from 08:11)
I will try to record and post a dedicated video on this topic in the near future explaining the nuances in greater details
Where can we get these graphs?
Have shared the data sources of all the three parameters in the description of the video. You can download the data and plot the graph in excel
Very useful... thanks for such an informative video.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Extremely Detailed Analysis video. Thank you for this Knowledge
Many thanks for these super kind words... glad you liked the video
Very informative
Waiting for more
🙏
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Absolutely mindblowing. It is amazing how you connect the theory and its application to derive meaningful insights. I believe the analysis was spot on but I'd request you to address even more fundamental questions. For instance, yield curve inversion signals an upcoming recession and yet the Indian market continues to rally, why? Is it because FIIs find emerging economies a better option then or something else?
Many thanks for the super kind words... glad you liked the video!
There is nothing extra-ordinary in markets rally once the yield curve inverts... that's the usual trend... once the yield curve inverts, while that means that the count-down to the next recession starts from that point onwards, the inversion also typically kick-starts the most violent last leg of the melt-up, which typically goes on till the yield curve finally "un-inverts". This is how markets have behaved forever. For e.g., the yield curve inverted around Jun-July of 2006 - a good 18 months before the onset of the recession in early 2008. NIFTY was at around 3,000 points then. Over the next 18 months, NIFTY doubled to 6,000+ (and then recession started and the NIFTY corrected by a whopping 60% to around 2,500 points).
What is playing out right now is almost the same movie - the yield curve inverted in Nov 2022, and since then what we have witnessed is arguably the most violent leg of the on-going rally
Sir, thank you so much for very insightful and educative content .Indeed, it is a good knowledge that i gained and will be useful ...🙏
Many thanks... glad you liked to video
Great Video. Good Quality Insight. Where can we see this Chart what you have shown
Data on all the three market parameters I have highlighted in this video is publicly available… you can keep track of the same at:
Data on Reverse Repo (RRP):
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
Data on Fed Funds Rate
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Data on Yield Curve:
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M#0
(Yield curve is negative right now… once the value of the Yield curve data available on the above URL turns positive, that’s the point the Yield Curve would be said to have “un-inverted”)
@@IndraanilGuha Thank you very much
Very interesting perspective. Is it assumed in this theory that Indian stock market is widely influenced by FII/FPI investments? Because though FIIs have been withdrawing big time recently, retail investors have held the market high
Excellent video...huge fan...sir wer can we get ffr cut chart?
Many thanks for the super kind words... very happy that you liked the video
I have provided link to the data source where you can find data on where FFR is currently and how it has moved historically in the description of the video
Sir does this crash apply to US market ad well
Most of my thesis is with regards to US market first...
A recession in the US I believe will first cause a stock market correction there, and in turn a correction here in India
This is great. So simple to understand and digest. Thank you, Jay Shree Ram🙏
What about the changed variables now, like size of the Indian market and domestic inflow ? Do we need to factor them ?
very good explanation and very useful
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Sir, deepest thanks for sharing this knowledge & strengthening us "the retail investors". Although I do have one curiosity, we are getting around 25k Cr of monthly SiPs. What is the size of this liquidity relative to what may come in from FIIS?
Great question... domestic flows (especially those from SIP investors) have indeed served as a big cushion for Indian markets. These flows are now at a staggering 20,000 crores+ per month, and have helped shield our markets from the adverse impact of relentless selling by FII between 2021 and 2023. This is a far cry from what we saw back in 2008, when FIIs selling a mere 40 - 50,000 crores worth of shares led to the NIFTY collapsing by a staggering 60%. Having said that, I believe we should NOT overstate the importance of domestic flows... there is now a growing feeling amongst analysts in India that the scale of our domestic flows is now so large that Indian markets are now arguably completely insulated from the adverse impacts of any risk-off events in global markets... and this is where I tend to strongly disagree with the emerging consensus.
Markets are bound to correct at the end of a business cycle, once it becomes clear that an economy in distress can no longer provide any justification to lofty stocks market valuations! There is nothing extraordinary in that... this is part of market cycle that has been on for decades (in fact for over a century in case of the US). And this will happen irrespective of how strong domestic flows are! If flows alone could prevent large stock market corrections, then markets like US would never see downturns of the sort that were witnessed in 2008 or 2020, given the scale of flows the US markets attract NOT just from domestic US based investors, but from investors around the world.
In case of India though, what would be different is that - in previous cycles, a large drawdown in our markets would cause pain to both FIIs and domestic investors alike. But from now on, any such drawdown is likely to almost entirely hurt retail investors only! In earlier cycles, especially in 2008, when FIIs started selling after the start of rate cuts in US, they themselves had to take the full brunt of their exit, since markets started to correct sharply as soon as FIIs started selling. Hence FIIs themselves had to endure the pain too for the drawdown that was triggered by their selling. But that won’t be the case from now on… our strong domestic flows would provide FIIs an easy exit and would allow them to dump their over-valued junk, most probably at a premium, and that too just in time before the recession hits US! And by the time, s*** finally hits the fan, it would be our poor domestic/SIP investors who would be found holding the garbage bag with all the junk dumped by FIIs!
I have delved into this in the following video:
ua-cam.com/video/W2gs9fpPwJI/v-deo.html
How does one track the 3 parameters? Is there any official site to keep an eye on these?
Have provided the data source for the three parameters in the description of the video
Excellent Analysis Sir!!!
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
And thanks more so for subscribing to my channel
Thank you for this excellent explanation of interest rates and nifty.
Many thanks... glad you liked the video
Hello @IndraanilGuha sir, i have watched this video over and over again.. Just to remember the basic concepts.
Hope you found it useful
i want to take entry is stock market should i enter now or wait for any correction
Will soon share an invetsment startegy in a video to be released soon, in which I will discuss how to invest, especially during times like the one we are going thru right now, where markets are at absolute all-time highs!
Sir do guide and cation retail investors well in time as to when to. exit , enter or continue because I have lost my hard earned money during the 2008 recession. Regards 🙏
What impact on real estate on canada and US ? What should be the strategy for that ?
I am not a real estate / housing market expert, but my first principle thinking and historical track record of the US housing market both suggest that as and when there is a big drawdown in equity markets, that ought to have a spillover effect on the real estate markets too... so such times should be good not just for picking stocks at a bargain, but for bargain hunting in the real estate market too!
@@IndraanilGuha when can we expect your next video regarding how you ssee the market. with so many changes such as PPI and CPI data?
@@IndraanilGuha Thank you so much that makes sense!
Indeed, lots of new developments
The next video should most prolly be out over this coming weekend
Brilliant analysis sir, loved the video.
So glad i found your channel sir, I was really keen on content on effects of global macro on Indian markets.
Wanted to know after the RRP to 0 do think the US TGA might take on the role of injecting liquidity for a few more months? Thanks
Many many thanks for your love and support... glad you liked the video
Wow if this happens exactly u said in the video then we all can hit a jackpot🎉