Indraanil Guha
Indraanil Guha
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What if I am wrong? | NIFTY-50 Crash or Melt-Up | Indraanil Guha English
WHAT IF I AM WRONG? | NIFTY-50 CRASH OR MELT-UP | INDRAANIL GUHA ENGLISH
NIFTY has already corrected by almost 12% (as of 24-Jan-2025) from its most recent all-time-high. And yet there is no way to predict with certainty if the correction we have seen so far is only a prelude to a larger market crash that lies ahead, or if this on-going bout of market volatility is now close to an end and will very likely pave the way for a melt-up very soon going forward from here. So what should an ideal portfolio look like at this stage? Being fully invested in stocks at this stage comes with the risk of a big loss should markets continue to correct steeply from here, and being overwhelmingly in cash poses the risk of missing out on the upside, should markets turn around and start to rally going forward. At the same time, getting the call right on which way equity markets are headed from here can create stupendous wealth. Getting the market call right (or wrong) at this stage can quite literally make or break an investment portfolio.
But is there a way to protect our investment portfolio from the risk of our market call going wrong? This is exactly what I discuss in this video. So do watch this video till the end, because without a mechanism to hedge against the risk of our market call going wrong, we are probably in a game of poker, rather than in the game of investing!
Also watch my recent 3-part series in which I have explained the key drivers of the on-going bout of volatility/correction in the NIFTY since Sept-24. Part 1 of the 3-part series is available at:
ua-cam.com/video/sEImwCJTfUo/v-deo.html
Part 2 of the 3-part series is available at:
ua-cam.com/video/i-dkBFFU6fQ/v-deo.html
Part 3 of the 3-part series is available at:
ua-cam.com/video/JLQ6IEUfTho/v-deo.html
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Chapters:
00:00 Teaser
00:48 Introduction
02:12 Bullish outlook in the aftermath of start of rate cuts in Sept-24
04:50 But that's NOT how things have played out!
07:33 Key takeaways about my style of investing
08:46 I am NOT trying to be right all the time!
10:14 Market outlook with regards to impending US recession
10:40 %age of banks tightening lending standards
17:13 Introduction to AlphaSIP® - Defining the problem we are trying to solve for our clients
#nifty #stockmarketcrash #marketoutlook #niftycrash #nifty50 #niftyfifty #stocks #stockstobuy #sharemarket #investing #investmentportfolio #marketcrash #marketanalysis #niftyanalysis #niftypredictionfortomorrow #niftyprediction #niftytrading #willniftygodowntomorrow #indianstockmarket #marketinsights #marketanalysis #marketvolatility #volatility #nifty50trading #nse #usstockmarket #investmenttips #investimentos #investor #stockmarketnews #stockmarketeducation #tradingstrategy #stockmarketstrategy #metacaps #indraanilguha
Переглядів: 9 728

Відео

Is it Time to Buy the Dip? | NIFTY-50 Crash | Indraanil Guha Hindi
Переглядів 35 тис.14 днів тому
IS IT TIME TO BUY THE DIP? [in HINDI] | NIFTY-50 CRASH Even as the NIFTY grapples with one of the worst bouts of volatility in many years, it’s instructive to note that I had laid down on this very channel three clear conditions that must be fully met before a sizeable market crash can materialize. And I did so NOT today, but nearly 9 months back in the following video that was published back o...
Is it Time to Buy the Dip? NIFTY-50 Crash | Market Correction | Indraanil Guha English
Переглядів 30 тис.21 день тому
IS IT TIME TO BUY THE DIP? NIFTY-50 CRASH Even as the NIFTY grapples with one of the worst bouts of volatility in many years, it’s instructive to note that I had laid down on this very channel three clear conditions that must be fully met before a sizeable market crash can materialize. And I did so NOT today, but nearly 9 months back in the following video that was published back on 6-Apr-24: u...
Why are FIIs Selling? When will the Selling Stop? | Part 2 | NIFTY-50 Crash | Indraanil Guha Hindi
Переглядів 19 тис.Місяць тому
WHY ARE FIIs SELLING? WHEN WILL THE SELLING STOP? | PART 2 - WATCH THE ‘MOVE’ INDEX | NIFTY-50 CRASH The NIFTY is currently witnessing a period of extremely elevated volatility. It started off with the Federal Reserve starting its most recent rate cut cycle in the US on 18-Sept-24 with a big bang 50 basis points cut, and equity markets around the world, including the NIFTY-50 Index in India che...
Why are FIIs Selling? When will the Selling Stop? | Part 1 | NIFTY-50 Crash | Indraanil Guha Hindi
Переглядів 16 тис.Місяць тому
WHY ARE FIIs SELLING? WHEN WILL THE SELLING STOP? | PART 1 - THIS TOO SHALL PASS | NIFTY-50 CRASH | The Federal Reserve kicked off its most recent rate cut cycle with a big bang 50 basis points cut on 18-Sept-24. Equity markets around the world, including India’s flagship NIFTY-50 Index cheered the start to rate cuts in the US with a strong surge. The NIFTY hit a new all-time-high on 26-Sept-24...
Why are FIIs Selling? When will the Selling Stop? | Part 3 - Is the Correction Over? NIFTY-50 Crash
Переглядів 23 тис.Місяць тому
WHY ARE FIIs SELLING? WHEN WILL THE SELLING STOP? | PART 3 - IS THE CORRECTION OVER? The NIFTY hit a new all-time-high on 26-Sept-24, but has seen a dramatic reversal in fortunes ever since then. So far, the NIFTY has corrected by almost 11% from it most recent all-time-high. In Part 1 and 2 of this series, I tried to explore the key factor/s that are driving the current bout of volatility in t...
IS THE CORRECTION IN THE NIFTY OVER? | NIFTY-50 CRASH
Переглядів 12 тис.2 місяці тому
IS THE CORRECTION IN THE NIFTY OVER? After hitting a new-all-time-high on 26-Sept-24, the NIFTY has corrected sharply. In Part 1 and 2 of the on-going series of videos that I am in the process of publishing right now, I tried to explore the key factor/s that are driving the current bout of volatility in the NIFT right now. We saw in In Part 1 and 2 of this series how the NIFTY-50 and MOVE Index...
Why are FIIs Selling? When will the Selling Stop? | Part 2 - Watch the MOVE Index | NIFTY-50 Crash
Переглядів 36 тис.2 місяці тому
WHY ARE FIIS SELLING? WHEN WILL THE SELLING STOP? | PART 2 - WATCH THE MOVE INDEX | NIFTY-50 CRASH Equity markets here in India are going through one of the most volatile phases of recent times. It started off with the Federal Reserve in the US starting its most recent rate cut cycle on 18-Sept-24 with a big bang 50 basis points cut on 18-Sept-24, and equity markets around the world, including ...
Why are FIIs Selling? When will the Selling Stop? | Part 1 - This Too Shall Pass! NIFTY-50 Crash
Переглядів 23 тис.2 місяці тому
Why are FIIs Selling? When will the Selling Stop? | Part 1 - This Too Shall Pass! NIFTY-50 Crash
Does the Iran - Israel Conflict Spell The End Of Rally In Equity Markets? NIFTY-50 Crash
Переглядів 21 тис.3 місяці тому
Does the Iran - Israel Conflict Spell The End Of Rally In Equity Markets? NIFTY-50 Crash
Fed cuts rates by 50bps! What next for NIFTY? Melt-up or NIFTY-50 Crash?
Переглядів 46 тис.4 місяці тому
Fed cuts rates by 50bps! What next for NIFTY? Melt-up or NIFTY-50 Crash?
40%+ pa in Bull Market, FD+ Return even in a Crash|Part 4-Magic of Market Timing with Tax-free ULIPs
Переглядів 14 тис.4 місяці тому
40% pa in Bull Market, FD Return even in a Crash|Part 4-Magic of Market Timing with Tax-free ULIPs
40%+ pa in Bull Market, FD+ Return even in a Crash | Part3- Market Timing Based on Fed Balance Sheet
Переглядів 19 тис.4 місяці тому
40% pa in Bull Market, FD Return even in a Crash | Part3- Market Timing Based on Fed Balance Sheet
Why You Should Buy this F***ing Dip! NIFTY-50 Crash
Переглядів 32 тис.5 місяців тому
Why You Should Buy this F ing Dip! NIFTY-50 Crash
Turning Your SIP Into a 12% PA FD Even During a NIFTY-50 Crash | Part2-Market Timing Using PE Ratio
Переглядів 14 тис.5 місяців тому
Turning Your SIP Into a 12% PA FD Even During a NIFTY-50 Crash | Part2-Market Timing Using PE Ratio
How To Turn Your SIP Into a FD Yielding 12%+ pa? PART 1 - Limitations/Flaws in Conventional SIPs
Переглядів 17 тис.6 місяців тому
How To Turn Your SIP Into a FD Yielding 12% pa? PART 1 - Limitations/Flaws in Conventional SIPs
A Crash Is Coming! But Do Not Even Think of Stopping Your SIPs / Selling MFs, Yet! NIFTY-50 Crash
Переглядів 48 тис.7 місяців тому
A Crash Is Coming! But Do Not Even Think of Stopping Your SIPs / Selling MFs, Yet! NIFTY-50 Crash
Are You A SIP Investor? You Are The Exit For FIIs Before The Next Crash! NIFTY-50 Crash!
Переглядів 56 тис.7 місяців тому
Are You A SIP Investor? You Are The Exit For FIIs Before The Next Crash! NIFTY-50 Crash!
With or Without Modi NIFTY is All Set To Crash | How To Invest After Election? NIFTY-50 Crash
Переглядів 61 тис.7 місяців тому
With or Without Modi NIFTY is All Set To Crash | How To Invest After Election? NIFTY-50 Crash
Rate Cuts Won't Save, Instead is Setting-up NIFTY for a Crash Soon | Fed Funds Rate | NIFTY-50 CRASH
Переглядів 46 тис.8 місяців тому
Rate Cuts Won't Save, Instead is Setting-up NIFTY for a Crash Soon | Fed Funds Rate | NIFTY-50 CRASH
Dhruv Rathee is Wrong, India's Debt is NOT a Problem | NIFTY 50 | SCE | NIKKIE 225 - Indraanil Guha
Переглядів 19 тис.8 місяців тому
Dhruv Rathee is Wrong, India's Debt is NOT a Problem | NIFTY 50 | SCE | NIKKIE 225 - Indraanil Guha
How to Navigate the Coming Liquidity Crisis in Equity Markets? NIFTY-50 Crash | Reverse Repo | Fed
Переглядів 169 тис.9 місяців тому
How to Navigate the Coming Liquidity Crisis in Equity Markets? NIFTY-50 Crash | Reverse Repo | Fed
How To Time The Upcoming Market Crash NIFTY-50? RRP | Fed Funds Rate | Yield Curve Inversion
Переглядів 55 тис.9 місяців тому
How To Time The Upcoming Market Crash NIFTY-50? RRP | Fed Funds Rate | Yield Curve Inversion
Yield Curve Has Inverted | Most Reliable Recession Predictor Now Flashing RED | NIFTY-50 Crash 2024
Переглядів 14 тис.9 місяців тому
Yield Curve Has Inverted | Most Reliable Recession Predictor Now Flashing RED | NIFTY-50 Crash 2024
Reverse Repo (RRP) | Gas Tank Fueling this Rally is now at Just 20% Balance | NIFTY-50 Crash 2024
Переглядів 7 тис.10 місяців тому
Reverse Repo (RRP) | Gas Tank Fueling this Rally is now at Just 20% Balance | NIFTY-50 Crash 2024
Fed Funds Rate Has Peaked - How Far Are We From The Next Market Crash? Stock Market Crash 2024
Переглядів 11 тис.10 місяців тому
Fed Funds Rate Has Peaked - How Far Are We From The Next Market Crash? Stock Market Crash 2024
Liquidity Tap has 25% Balance Left | Q&A Series | RRP, BTFP, DII vs FII | Stock Market Insights
Переглядів 1,9 тис.10 місяців тому
Liquidity Tap has 25% Balance Left | Q&A Series | RRP, BTFP, DII vs FII | Stock Market Insights
The Liquidity Tap Fuelling The On-Going Rally In Stocks Is Now 75% Empty! Indian Stock Market Rally
Переглядів 6 тис.10 місяців тому
The Liquidity Tap Fuelling The On-Going Rally In Stocks Is Now 75% Empty! Indian Stock Market Rally

КОМЕНТАРІ

  • @chetanbakre5076
    @chetanbakre5076 2 години тому

    Sir, your presentation was fantastic! Your videos have taught me a lot of things. Please, keep up the wonderful work!

  • @arunkala3632
    @arunkala3632 2 години тому

    He is most illinformed investor, he has his own dreamy outlook without any concrete logic, worst among all

  • @imageofparadox
    @imageofparadox 3 години тому

    Meltdown is just round the corner.

  • @blitz3276
    @blitz3276 3 години тому

    No u r not wrong. We are indeed in a soft landing sir and the meltup is going to be huge, so huge that market is taking sufficient cooldown before to outburst

  • @TechnicalAnalyst-xp2du
    @TechnicalAnalyst-xp2du 4 години тому

    Markets will CRASH next month...Eventually Nifty should touch 18k..worst 16.5k

  • @SureshMenon-c9x
    @SureshMenon-c9x 5 годин тому

    Oh no... same story, same chart, same words. Sir, your videos were informative the first time, acceptable the second time, but now they've become purely repetitive and dull.

  • @12varshney
    @12varshney 5 годин тому

    No historical data can predict the market . If it was so easy then people who invest thousands of crores would have hired data analysts to predict market . Even valuation can not predict because when market was at 24000 even it was overvalued but it still rallied till 26000 so who thought that market is overvalued and it will fall he would have missed 10% rally . So best thing to do in the market is keep invested . It seems you are new to market and only analyses the past data. Now you have started managing others money , you can not beat nifty index return because you will try to time the market based on past data and it will never work as every past period was having a reason that’s why that data was made. Please stop misguiding the people .

  • @AKI1959M
    @AKI1959M 5 годин тому

    Indian market is still overvalued compared to the world and we are likely to correct further

  • @syedamjad9051
    @syedamjad9051 5 годин тому

    Always wait for ur video 👍

  • @rexcherian2644
    @rexcherian2644 5 годин тому

    You're not wrong sir, Recession will occur when no one will expect it. And right now, everyone seems to be bullish. Sir, look at the the banks tightening lending chart. In April 1999, the same chart gave a false signal that the banks are willing to lend and the economy is fine. But the market forces caused the recession to happen and the same chart reversed higher. In 2022 - 2023 a technical recession did occur, but the Biden administration changed the definition of recession. Since then the economy strengthened and there is very less risk management with the perception that Trump is on the scene and nothing will go wrong. I believe this time is a repeat of the year 2001 with the markets correcting before the onset of the recession. We are likely to top on the S & P at 6,300 levels by March and be sideways till August of this year and start the meltdown from there. My view for the Indian Market is that there is no scope of recovery unitill then since, yields will stay elevated till then. Sit tight sir and be proud of your prediction coming true. Your an inspiration.

  • @sujitkumarnirala1778
    @sujitkumarnirala1778 5 годин тому

    सर हिंदी में भी वीडियो बनाए ताकि हम हिंदी भाषी लोगों को भी लाभ मिले

  • @samagatachatterjee
    @samagatachatterjee 6 годин тому

    Your theory seems to be spot on, however people may not understand the background actions taken by investors based on such circumstances. Its not our cup of tea to understand those background facts, but your explanations are beautifully placed.

  • @SUDIPTOSHAW-uj2gt
    @SUDIPTOSHAW-uj2gt 6 годин тому

    Good evening sir! . Take home was one should always try to be in the rite side of the market, basically the thumb rule Trend is the best friend in thsi market. Once again thank for this wonderful video.

  • @mandarp9472
    @mandarp9472 6 годин тому

    Sir, the problem is with US economy. 1) Inflation is high 2) 36 trillion dollars of debt

  • @dilipmukherjee1686
    @dilipmukherjee1686 6 годин тому

    So sir;; past incidents may not always repeat the same way;; melt up; crash

  • @ayushpandey7304
    @ayushpandey7304 7 годин тому

    Sir , I would like to add one very important point. THIS UNEMPLOYMENT DATA of USA has been fudged by USA. A person who has lost his job is working partime at 2-3 diffrent companies hence...it seems that unemployment is not much. But in reality...things on ground are actually pretty bad. Just wait for the day this data is clarified .

  • @Lets-break-it-Plain-and-Simple
    @Lets-break-it-Plain-and-Simple 7 годин тому

    Nahi nahi, ye to palturam wali baatein hai ab,, Rally ke naam pe logo ko bitha ke apne clients ka paisa nikaal liya.... What is this ???

  • @goallout5445
    @goallout5445 7 годин тому

    ❤❤❤❤

  • @karthikn9684
    @karthikn9684 7 годин тому

    Very valuable presentation.

    • @IndraanilGuha
      @IndraanilGuha 6 годин тому

      Many thanks....glad you liked my content

  • @kapildheer1
    @kapildheer1 7 годин тому

    5:00 How about a chance that this time RBI didn't cut rates inline with US. Can it be checked for previous instances Vs this time.

  • @thomasjoseph8567
    @thomasjoseph8567 7 годин тому

    Waiting for crash❤

    • @goallout5445
      @goallout5445 7 годин тому

      You will get your rice bag 💼 from missionaries what about poor retailers bloody crypto low IQ missionaries victim 😊😊😊

  • @chaitsathe
    @chaitsathe 7 годин тому

    @14:30 , point to note ; top companies are doing soft layoffs by ending hybrid it could be a signal

  • @GauravSingh-fw2xf
    @GauravSingh-fw2xf 7 годин тому

    16:25 How come ? DOGE in US wants to fire all bureacracy related to DEI, Justice and Education. unemployment should go up

  • @firdauslalkaka1363
    @firdauslalkaka1363 8 годин тому

    Here's my take on Nifty - it'll show a positive reversal when the PCR (Put-Call-Ratio) is touches between 0.40 to 0.45. Worst case scenario could takes it to as low as 0.30-0.35. Personally, I'm going to go long when this happens.

  • @firdauslalkaka1363
    @firdauslalkaka1363 8 годин тому

    A 'winner' is one who view proves to be correct 7 out of 10 times. A 'winner' is never one who is correct 10 out of 10 times! How one rates a person depends on how their view is skewed - whether they view him based on the 3 times he was wrong or based on him having gone right 7 times - a case of the glass being viewed as being half full or half empty.... What I admire most about you Indranil is, your integrity to accept when you're wrong. Haven't seen many people possess or display such integrity and honesty.

  • @Psir-Classes
    @Psir-Classes 8 годин тому

    Can anyone plz give me gist and prediction of this video in one line. , ll b v grateful. Regards.

  • @carpb838
    @carpb838 8 годин тому

    Sir please make video about lump sump investment returns 😃

  • @hjag1019
    @hjag1019 8 годин тому

    You seem to be trying to desperately course correct and adjust your crystal gazing with benefit of recent hindsight 😊

  • @joysondsouza5819
    @joysondsouza5819 8 годин тому

    No offence but what i feel is , do not touch the investment. Since the payment term is 5 years so even if the market falls your nav will be avg... If you rebalance then the money js gone if you are wrong. Practically talking... I maybe wrong.

  • @recca12
    @recca12 8 годин тому

    Lets speak bakwas in english. What good is the info nothing burger

  • @nileshmandhre7495
    @nileshmandhre7495 8 годин тому

    I think this release was in hurry.. Could have waited for a week post budget. Also what about cost of money.

    • @relaxlikeababy3572
      @relaxlikeababy3572 8 годин тому

      He never talks about the cost of Funds to hold existing positions .. Even this gentleman whom I trusted the most is seems to become a "Paltu Man"..!!

  • @keanuroy
    @keanuroy 9 годин тому

    Thanks for this latest one... but was a little disappointed that the data presented was not the current data. Ever since you mentioned, I am tracking the MOVE and the 10 yr yield, and Nifty is now not behaving as per the correlation that you mentioned in an earlier video.

    • @sagarsinghkhani6040
      @sagarsinghkhani6040 6 годин тому

      It is liquidity issue watch rbi vrr variable rate repo easing. Liquidity in banks is lacking around 2-3 lakh crores

  • @zaheer86shirgaonkar
    @zaheer86shirgaonkar 9 годин тому

    specific marketing vedio of more than 24 min

  • @yogeshlad5419
    @yogeshlad5419 9 годин тому

    Thank you very much for your valuable information. I trust you and your view about the market. Your views have data support. Always wait for your valuable information.

  • @haris1328
    @haris1328 9 годин тому

    Thanks for efforts sir

  • @jsharichandra
    @jsharichandra 9 годин тому

    Indraanil Guha - Finally you are taking U turn in predicting the market. The way you are saying you can be wrong in this video, you need to tell in the same tone in earlier videos. Any way you proved that Market is supreme and you are not the exceptional 🙂. Any way thanks for educating on Moveindex. All the best

    • @faisalqureshi3187
      @faisalqureshi3187 8 годин тому

      right bro we are disappointed

    • @harimukundan2908
      @harimukundan2908 6 годин тому

      look at the nifty PE it is still 20 above (21.5) and US 10years yield is still high so there are chances for further crash or we should have higher earning to justify the higher PE and i am sure that going to happen June 2025 onwards if our Budget allocation for infra is above 12 lakhs core

  • @rameshkulkarni8673
    @rameshkulkarni8673 9 годин тому

    Market outlook still not clear on Nifty index where as SPX zooming even today

  • @rameshkulkarni8673
    @rameshkulkarni8673 9 годин тому

    still not clear that nifty further goes down or reverse from here towards previous all time high.

    • @bharathkrishna6776
      @bharathkrishna6776 6 годин тому

      That’s because market movements are probabilistic and not definite…It all depends on how macroeconomic conditions unfold over the course of coming months…

    • @harimukundan2908
      @harimukundan2908 6 годин тому

      Nobody can tell this but and look at the nifty PE it is still 20 and US 10years yield is still high so there are chances for further crash or we should have higher earning to justify the higher PE and i am sure that going to happen June onwards if our Budget allocation for infra is above 12 lakhs core

  • @blankspace1151
    @blankspace1151 9 годин тому

    Repeat of same thing

  • @sandeepbothra6809
    @sandeepbothra6809 9 годин тому

    Paka diya uncle ne kam se kam hindi main tho boltha..

  • @arunm902
    @arunm902 9 годин тому

    Your dedication is commendable ..you are pioneer in this..

  • @jais330
    @jais330 9 годин тому

    Trump euphoria is because of a reason

  • @vishalking237
    @vishalking237 9 годин тому

    Hindi me bolo sir

  • @12345sankar
    @12345sankar 10 годин тому

    😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

  • @mayanksaggarwal4416
    @mayanksaggarwal4416 10 годин тому

    Thanks for sharing this insightful viewpoint. Your content has always been thought provoking and more so evidence based. You videos are really useful For a non finance person like me. Thanks again

  • @debashisguha4096
    @debashisguha4096 10 годин тому

    From the discussion it appears that the movements in Sensex or Nifty are not at all linked with the earnings reported by Indian companies. It may be true that the selling by FIIs in Indian market is highly influenced by US Bond markets etc, but DIIs are buying heavily and the Buy and Sell figures of DII and FIIs are almost balancing each other. Then what is the reason of sharp fall in Indian market ?

  • @Saaket-m6p
    @Saaket-m6p 10 годин тому

    If you stick to your absurd correlation and over dependency on US data, you are going to make your client's fund Zero after your so called 5 year horizon and your so called 60 times rebalancing ..Dear you need to learn afresh or else market will TIME you out rather than you time the market. Stop repeating

    • @vikasverma5798
      @vikasverma5798 10 годин тому

      😂

    • @shyamsundar-tl4cr
      @shyamsundar-tl4cr 9 годин тому

      😂

    • @rajivsingh5516
      @rajivsingh5516 9 годин тому

      Then Mr Saket why don't you come up and guide about the market direction in future? I think by your confidence you will surely be 100% right. By the way if anyone does some research he has the right to go wrong sometimes. Life is not perfect always.

    • @thewindypine1976
      @thewindypine1976 8 годин тому

      Says a guy with 10 k in his acc😂😂

    • @kapildheer1
      @kapildheer1 7 годин тому

      Bhai tum toh ek downcycle Mein hi desperate ho gye......ye toh abhi bus ek mild correction hai. Bear phase toh abhi dekha nahin tumne😂.

  • @jasvindersingh6363
    @jasvindersingh6363 10 годин тому

    The move index needs to be updated.

  • @Mankisacchibaat
    @Mankisacchibaat 10 годин тому

    Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent 😐

  • @subhashishdas5155
    @subhashishdas5155 10 годин тому

    Very well explained 👏