Ed, Every season, when Felix Zulauf comes on the Media and makes his round, I have watched all his interviews. Since he's such a deep thinker, I ofen have more questions after his desription. Unfortunately the influencer who holds don't follow his think path and let the whole logic being explained. Your interview finnaly makes it. And this one is more clearer than the one last year. He lead us through the important western economies, at what position they are now, what policy are they going to play and the possible outcome near to middle turn. Realy good stuf! Thank you so much for the effort!
A lucid analysis based on F. Zulauf's decades of managing wealthy clients' money and now his family wealth. Thanks. He was wrong as to the US stock market correction in 2024, which he predicted in 2023. Other contrarians were wrong, too. This is primarily because the contrarians, like FZ, underestimated the massive government transfers to the consumer, which kept the consumer buying and fueling economic growth (70% of the US economy is consumer spending), and, in turn, this fueled the stock market's upward trend. The business cycle downtrend was delayed by a year. The consumer is running low on funds. Now as to a US recession: a different point of view is addressed by several other reputable money managers on the declining financial condition of the US consumer (a leading indicator of a coming recession), and this informs us that the US recession will become evident in 1H25. The Fed has commenced lowering the Fed Funds rate because of the initial evidence of a recession. As FZ says, China (which is exporting deflation) and Europe are in massive decline.
Inflation remains stubbornly persistent. The Fed will once again prove to be on the wrong side of policy should they continue to further reduce rates into 2025. Plenty of evidence that current policy is not restrictive. Thoughts?
Excellent overview of the Macro and Geo Outlook from Felix with his various Yuletide podcasts. This one I might say a little different from the rest. 😊
You asked how Europe keeps the lights on in the winter - in my 34 years in the EU I have not witnessed one single blackout. Never. Never happened to me. California and Texas have regular blackouts yet the US always talks shit about the energy situation in Europe...
As much as I respect Felix’s analysis, it’s hard not to think that his anti-US bias (politics more than economy) is clouding his judgement. He said very similar things 12 months ago.
Why do Europeans need Uranium from Russia when Canada has so much of it. A new Government in Canada could work toward this in a sensible trade agreement that supports all of our shared security.
Normally Zulauf is insightful. This interview is somehow below par. Unfortunately, here he seems to have been dumbed down to the common American Group-Think, "Thucydides Trap", a.k.a. Nonsense Pretending to be History. (It is not even "wrong", it is just Ignorant.) Anyone who really wishes to learn, to see the signs and trends of how a late dynasty dies, should study the 5,000 years of Chinese History. With the many dynasties rising and dying, there are ample examples that look just like what you are experiencing now, in real time, in a late dynasty, with Massive Corruption and War Mongering, People living in Fear constantly.
Want exclusive market insights? Join 100K+ investors getting my weekly newsletter 👉 www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM563P/YTB
Felix was a client of mine back in the day and it was always an honor and a pleasure to chat with him on the phone. Thanks for the great interview!
Ed, Every season, when Felix Zulauf comes on the Media and makes his round, I have watched all his interviews. Since he's such a deep thinker, I ofen have more questions after his desription. Unfortunately the influencer who holds don't follow his think path and let the whole logic being explained. Your interview finnaly makes it. And this one is more clearer than the one last year. He lead us through the important western economies, at what position they are now, what policy are they going to play and the possible outcome near to middle turn. Realy good stuf! Thank you so much for the effort!
Thank you for the kind words.
Very insightful presentation. Thank you Ed and Felix
Clever man. Agree with his thesis as an advocate of Russell Napier.
A lucid analysis based on F. Zulauf's decades of managing wealthy clients' money and now his family wealth. Thanks. He was wrong as to the US stock market correction in 2024, which he predicted in 2023. Other contrarians were wrong, too. This is primarily because the contrarians, like FZ, underestimated the massive government transfers to the consumer, which kept the consumer buying and fueling economic growth (70% of the US economy is consumer spending), and, in turn, this fueled the stock market's upward trend. The business cycle downtrend was delayed by a year. The consumer is running low on funds. Now as to a US recession: a different point of view is addressed by several other reputable money managers on the declining financial condition of the US consumer (a leading indicator of a coming recession), and this informs us that the US recession will become evident in 1H25. The Fed has commenced lowering the Fed Funds rate because of the initial evidence of a recession. As FZ says, China (which is exporting deflation) and Europe are in massive decline.
Good contributory post. Thank you. You're correct. Also factor in the global slowdown.
Inflation remains stubbornly persistent. The Fed will once again prove to be on the wrong side of policy should they continue to further reduce rates into 2025. Plenty of evidence that current policy is not restrictive. Thoughts?
Such a wealth of information! Thank you.
Excellent overview of the Macro and Geo Outlook from Felix with his various Yuletide podcasts.
This one I might say a little different from the rest. 😊
thanks... only thanks for this interviu
Felix is amazing. Always.
hi nice conversation! from Indonesia
Thanks
You asked how Europe keeps the lights on in the winter - in my 34 years in the EU I have not witnessed one single blackout. Never. Never happened to me. California and Texas have regular blackouts yet the US always talks shit about the energy situation in Europe...
As much as I respect Felix’s analysis, it’s hard not to think that his anti-US bias (politics more than economy) is clouding his judgement. He said very similar things 12 months ago.
not a single question about bitcoin? believe in it or not, hot market,,,should have asked his thoughts on BTC
He thinks Bitcoin is speculation
@@G_Ellis606 he is not wrong about that
Why do Europeans need Uranium from Russia when Canada has so much of it. A new Government in Canada could work toward this in a sensible trade agreement that supports all of our shared security.
His prognosis about unemployment, crude oil prices and EV cars is completely misleading.
Normally Zulauf is insightful. This interview is somehow below par. Unfortunately, here he seems to have been dumbed down to the common American Group-Think, "Thucydides Trap", a.k.a. Nonsense Pretending to be History. (It is not even "wrong", it is just Ignorant.)
Anyone who really wishes to learn, to see the signs and trends of how a late dynasty dies, should study the 5,000 years of Chinese History. With the many dynasties rising and dying, there are ample examples that look just like what you are experiencing now, in real time, in a late dynasty, with Massive Corruption and War Mongering, People living in Fear constantly.
This person is reading off a piece of paper !
Not sure which of us you are referring to. I can assure you, Felix is not reading off a piece of paper.
At least he can read, unlike trump can’t barely read a children book, all he knows is to profane, for a man in a suit, he’s very nasty 🤮
He should've invested in Fartcoin so he wouldn't have to do these interviews for money.
LOL...