Thanks for the analysis, I agree with some of it, but it feels like you’re cherry picking first principles. According to the man himself, a truth is something that we can 90-95% sure is a truth. So if Elon’s strengths are first principles truths, what about his weaknesses? some of these should also be regarded as first principles truths. In summary, this ‘Elon’ gamble is way more complex than is presented here.
Market share is not a problem. After a short time, the consumer will begin to MASSIVELY sell their gasoline cars and get on electric ones, since it turns out that by taking out a new electric car on credit, you will suddenly end up spending less per month than if you continued to drive an old gasoline car (the loan payment will be less than the cost of a gasoline car per month). And there will be a market of a billion cars, not 70 million just new purchases as before. Russia, Ulyanovsk.
The tech is of course amazingly exciting in and of itself. From an investment standpoint the uncertainties around these opportunities are pretty massive. I'm invested from now because I see the path clearly enough in my mind. But I look forward to Elon's next comp package. If history is a guide then it will give us a good idea of what Elon thinks he can reasonably achieve with Tesla.
There are going to be A LOT of new money retail investors if Tesla succeeds in this. What are the implications of that for the world? How do the old money and elites respond to this?
I will start a series on this very soon - Tesla stock investors have proven that they outsmarted Wall Street (and, btw, Silicon Valley) and are already forming a new core of pioneer capital that is much (!) smarter and more effective in propelling innovation and progress forward. It's a sea change of potentially epic proportion that is coming
We won't see Optimus for "private" sale until Tesla can satisfy the demand for Optimus robots in manufacturing or to perform the three D jobs: dirty, dangerous or drudgery. Unless they allow a certain percentage for private sale or marketing purposes. Otherwise, each Optimus is too valuable to waste on private use. Will Tesla ever sell Optimus or only lease them?
As most people switch to credit and debit cards - carrying money has become a thing of the past. However, we continue to base wealth estimates on cash carried, which gives the false impression of a nation going broke. Stocks have the same problem. Stocks are still based on a fixed future. The future is fluid, making stock values a false profit. Stocks must be valued on the NOW, not the what-ifs of a fluid future.
Well… EV’s are not cheaper than ICE vehicles… IF YOU EXCLUDE TESLA/ BYD!!! 🤣🤣🤣 Which is “basically” THE ENTIRE WV MARKET… 🤣🤣🤣 C’mon man!!! Keep it real!!!!
The price parity for EV vs Ice will be coming faster than people think. As ICE loses market share to EVs, the cost to make new and repair used ICE will go up. While the cost to make EV will go down as economy of scale comes in. Parity make already be here but we don’t see it just yet because OEM cannot sell their new or used car so they are cutting their prices, even for a loss. Better to sell for something than nothing. China already faced these issues for ICE last year.
08/08. Statement 1 (maybe in June??) "Hybrid M3" in production this year" . Gen 3 systems installed on existing castings. Those castings installed in / on a conventional body (amortized, cheap, fast) Sub $30,000 car. "Easy" fast transition. . Statement 2 Announces the "Cab". Its angular, but its designed *from first principles* as *A CAB*. As such, it must accommodate *ALL* passengers, not just 2 able bodied individuals. . It will be a "Cube" (or close) with easy access. . (While doing so, throws HEAVY shade at Reuters, pointing out EVERYTHING they got wrong. (Leaves them wondering which car *was* "cancelled" [delayed] .... It was the Roadster... Note the new speculation floating around today) . Production of the *base Gen 3 vehicle* will begin in Q1. . It will have driver controls and be marketed as the "Compact" (Short, manoeuverable, 4-5 passengers) . It wont be SOLD. It will have a cheap, variable length (?) Lease.. . When regulators do their jobs, production will change from the "Compact", to the CyberCAB. . *The same* easy access vehicle, essentially zero transition time on the line. Just a "Control delete" . As "Compacts" return at end of lease, they are checked over, the controls are unbolted and the firmware updated to "Cab mode". They join the fleet. . The "Hybrid 3" (Y?) Remains as "The cheap car you buy if you want to drive" .... With the option of FSD. Eventually, (soon??) all Model 3/ Y variants use the "Unboxed Lite" assembly method. (Is that why model Y production in China was described as "slow" this month, and/ or why Tom Zhu is in Shanghai?) . Lets see if *This* one gets deleted?
Before I watch I'm going to guess: Energy to outperform EVs: 2035 FSD starts to impact share price: late 2024 / early 2025, with an actual income generating product Q3 2025 Optimus internal testing: 2024-2026 and impacting shareprice 2027 TSLA share price April 2025: $240 April 2026: $333 April 2027: $500 April 2028: $700 April 2029: $1200 April 2030: $2000 (10x from 2024), with market cap $5-6 trillion Sounds like you're expecting 2030 shareprice to be more like $20,000! The only thing I would say is you could be right, but Elon is going to use this growth to justify another huge pay reward scheme, probably double the performance of his last. So, I imagine the vote in June (hopefully approved) will be followed by another insane performance award, and then he'll probably acheive it within 3 years.
Wow someone finally said what I have been thinking for years that basically the legacy companies will become manufacturing arms of Tesla with their own branding and styling. They will be forced to buy their tech, and license their software. I mean they already submitted to NACS... this is just the first step. This will be a win win because consumers will get more choices and both Legacy and Tesla will prosper.
Im all in on tsla and plan to use the 2026 fortune to fund a renewable energy startup thats currently in full speed development, and employ 50% of our workforce with Optimii, 50% human. Got at least one good personal manufacturing operation an Optimus could run soon too. The idea of training an Optimus to do work sounds really fun and interesting.
Hmmmm Consider WHO the "Chinese competition" is going to affect first? (Not Tesla). 0:08 Then, consider the ongoing total global car market. Does any one company have more than 20% of the market now? What's the Tesla target?(±30%?) So that's 70% of the global car market remaining. It's not a problem. (until automation reduces it, and Tesla will be leading that)
Thanks for the vid. Very optimistic and hopeful. And I see the possibilities. But a few things I disagree with. Tesla cannot provide drivetrains to other OEMs. They simply don't have the capacity for it. Everybody does not buy the cheapest gasoline cars today. Everybody does not have to use the cheapest and best (Tesla) drivetrain in BEVs. Why doesn't everyone use Toyota drivetrains in ICEVs? Robots are years away from doing productive work in factories. Maybe in warehouses in 2-3 years. Demo vids are all staged and made to look more impressive. Robots currently can't even navigate a building without specific guidance or physical markers on a floor. They also are way too slow. And notice how for instance Optimus only uses one arm/hand to do a job that can and should be more productively done using both arms/hands. Of all the things you are optimistic about, your estimates on when robots will do productive work in factories are the most unlikely. A robot that can do 2 or 3 things can't replace a human worker. They will only augment hima workers for the foreseeable future. FSD at L4 I think might be possible by year end. L5 will take a little longer but probably by the end of next year. There will be no vehicles produced on the Unboxed method for at least another 12 months. Manufacturing is not software and to get the lines built and supply chains ready will take about a year from unveiling. At least a year. Margins won't improve for a while. People have been calling for margins to bottom and increase for at least 4 quarters now. All that being said, I think reaching L4 sometime this year ir even H1 '25 will be enough to set the stock soaring. And U think some Chinese OEMs will start the FSD partnership wave before any of the Western or legacy brands capitulate. But it will happen. And if FSD is the killer app that launches the real AI boom, the humanoid robot hype train will drive it hard within a few years. Just like the Internet, AI (and specifically humanoid robots) will deliver. But first there will be a massive bubble without the promise holding up. Then the crash and delivery on the promises probably a decade after the bubble has popped.
Great video and comments . I think that the pace of advancement of AI in general is taking everyone by surprise , even Elon . This is only mid May of 2024 and look where we are with FSD! I believe FSD will be mature enough for deployment before the end of 2024 especially in China. There is already a glut of cheap EVs in China and many manufacturers there are facing bankruptcy. If these Chinese EV manufacturers can licence FSD and own their self made "fleets" with recurring revenue then their chances of survival is more likely. Then they will also sell these "fleets" to other countries once the Chinese market is saturated . How quickly will the hardware needed for FSD be installed into the Chinese EVs? Lightening fast. BYD will be first. Other OEMs around the globe that are facing extinction due to ICE sales collapse will be slower to follow but will eventually follow. They will use the same fleet model in order to survive. The Tesla bot for the same reason that AI is advancing so rapidly will deploy quickly too in 2025 . TSLA stock price ? When it is unleashed , because the manipulation can no longer keep it down, it will be equally spectacular to watch. I think that will happen before the end of this year.......
Totally agree - AI progress and the surprising speed is the central driver for the accelerated timeline and Wall Street doesn’t get it (yet) , which is a huge opportunity 😮
I am a firm believer in learning and having the product makes you more qualified to talk about it. I owned a Tesla model 3 2018 for 5 years,a model Y with FSD in 2023 and also a Cyber truck in 2024. Plus Tesla stock.
Great Video. Another advantage for Tesla is the AI inference experience with the fsd. It will directly translate to Optimus. Huge advantage!
Very informative and clear. Thank you for your work and time to put all this together.
I’m in Florida and drive a Model Y with FSD. It’s mind blowing!!! This is the future. Great video thx 😊
Thanks for the analysis, I agree with some of it, but it feels like you’re cherry picking first principles. According to the man himself, a truth is something that we can 90-95% sure is a truth. So if Elon’s strengths are first principles truths, what about his weaknesses? some of these should also be regarded as first principles truths. In summary, this ‘Elon’ gamble is way more complex than is presented here.
I've seen a lot of Tesla analysis, and this is probably the best and most concise!
Can’t wait for the next video!
Market share is not a problem. After a short time, the consumer will begin to MASSIVELY sell their gasoline cars and get on electric ones, since it turns out that by taking out a new electric car on credit, you will suddenly end up spending less per month than if you continued to drive an old gasoline car (the loan payment will be less than the cost of a gasoline car per month). And there will be a market of a billion cars, not 70 million just new purchases as before. Russia, Ulyanovsk.
The tech is of course amazingly exciting in and of itself. From an investment standpoint the uncertainties around these opportunities are pretty massive. I'm invested from now because I see the path clearly enough in my mind. But I look forward to Elon's next comp package. If history is a guide then it will give us a good idea of what Elon thinks he can reasonably achieve with Tesla.
There are going to be A LOT of new money retail investors if Tesla succeeds in this. What are the implications of that for the world? How do the old money and elites respond to this?
I will start a series on this very soon - Tesla stock investors have proven that they outsmarted Wall Street (and, btw, Silicon Valley) and are already forming a new core of pioneer capital that is much (!) smarter and more effective in propelling innovation and progress forward. It's a sea change of potentially epic proportion that is coming
Brilliant 👍!
We won't see Optimus for "private" sale until Tesla can satisfy the demand for Optimus robots in manufacturing or to perform the three D jobs: dirty, dangerous or drudgery. Unless they allow a certain percentage for private sale or marketing purposes. Otherwise, each Optimus is too valuable to waste on private use. Will Tesla ever sell Optimus or only lease them?
As most people switch to credit and debit cards - carrying money has become a thing of the past.
However, we continue to base wealth estimates on cash carried, which gives the false impression of a nation going broke.
Stocks have the same problem. Stocks are still based on a fixed future.
The future is fluid, making stock values a false profit. Stocks must be valued on the NOW, not the what-ifs of a fluid future.
Well…
EV’s are not cheaper than ICE vehicles…
IF YOU EXCLUDE
TESLA/ BYD!!! 🤣🤣🤣
Which is “basically”
THE ENTIRE WV MARKET…
🤣🤣🤣
C’mon man!!! Keep it real!!!!
The price parity for EV vs Ice will be coming faster than people think. As ICE loses market share to EVs, the cost to make new and repair used ICE will go up. While the cost to make EV will go down as economy of scale comes in. Parity make already be here but we don’t see it just yet because OEM cannot sell their new or used car so they are cutting their prices, even for a loss. Better to sell for something than nothing. China already faced these issues for ICE last year.
08/08.
Statement 1 (maybe in June??)
"Hybrid M3" in production this year"
.
Gen 3 systems installed on existing castings.
Those castings installed in / on a conventional body (amortized, cheap, fast)
Sub $30,000 car.
"Easy" fast transition.
.
Statement 2
Announces the "Cab".
Its angular, but its designed *from first principles* as *A CAB*.
As such, it must accommodate *ALL* passengers, not just 2 able bodied individuals.
.
It will be a "Cube" (or close) with easy access.
.
(While doing so, throws HEAVY shade at Reuters, pointing out EVERYTHING they got wrong.
(Leaves them wondering which car *was* "cancelled" [delayed] .... It was the Roadster... Note the new speculation floating around today)
.
Production of the *base Gen 3 vehicle* will begin in Q1.
.
It will have driver controls and be marketed as the "Compact" (Short, manoeuverable, 4-5 passengers)
.
It wont be SOLD.
It will have a cheap, variable length (?) Lease..
.
When regulators do their jobs, production will change from the "Compact", to the CyberCAB.
.
*The same* easy access vehicle, essentially zero transition time on the line.
Just a "Control delete"
.
As "Compacts" return at end of lease, they are checked over, the controls are unbolted and the firmware updated to "Cab mode".
They join the fleet.
.
The "Hybrid 3" (Y?) Remains as "The cheap car you buy if you want to drive" .... With the option of FSD.
Eventually, (soon??) all Model 3/ Y variants use the "Unboxed Lite" assembly method.
(Is that why model Y production in China was described as "slow" this month, and/ or why Tom Zhu is in Shanghai?)
.
Lets see if *This* one gets deleted?
Wonderful insights! Thank you!
Before I watch I'm going to guess:
Energy to outperform EVs: 2035
FSD starts to impact share price: late 2024 / early 2025, with an actual income generating product Q3 2025
Optimus internal testing: 2024-2026 and impacting shareprice 2027
TSLA share price
April 2025: $240
April 2026: $333
April 2027: $500
April 2028: $700
April 2029: $1200
April 2030: $2000 (10x from 2024), with market cap $5-6 trillion
Sounds like you're expecting 2030 shareprice to be more like $20,000! The only thing I would say is you could be right, but Elon is going to use this growth to justify another huge pay reward scheme, probably double the performance of his last. So, I imagine the vote in June (hopefully approved) will be followed by another insane performance award, and then he'll probably acheive it within 3 years.
I'll always be happy with insane Elon compensation for insane growth in market cap.
Ark invest expects 2000 by 2027. I think it will be more. Maybe 3000 by 2030
how is FSD a 15 trillion market cap opportunity?
Wow someone finally said what I have been thinking for years that basically the legacy companies will become manufacturing arms of Tesla with their own branding and styling. They will be forced to buy their tech, and license their software. I mean they already submitted to NACS... this is just the first step. This will be a win win because consumers will get more choices and both Legacy and Tesla will prosper.
Spot on!
Im all in on tsla and plan to use the 2026 fortune to fund a renewable energy startup thats currently in full speed development, and employ 50% of our workforce with Optimii, 50% human. Got at least one good personal manufacturing operation an Optimus could run soon too. The idea of training an Optimus to do work sounds really fun and interesting.
Super analysis - thanks, Jo!
Amazing summarization of so much information. 👏👏
Top
Great video thanks 🙏
Good video
I enjoy your take on TSLA!
Will Harbor Freight sell my F150 as a Pittsburg or Central Machinery brand by 2030?
Model 3 AND Y are
ALREADY CHEAPER
than the AVG AMERICAN ICE VEHICLE!!!
Interesting to see what happens with the "environmental" activist groups in Germany moving forward.
I very much doubt that the ultimate control of the "Left Wing" activists is governed by a "Left Wing" group.
When is part 3 coming?
Tomorrow!
@@jobhakdi awesome I have slot of money riding on Tesla for retirement
What about the Chinese competition?
Hmmmm
Consider WHO the "Chinese competition" is going to affect first?
(Not Tesla). 0:08
Then, consider the ongoing total global car market.
Does any one company have more than 20% of the market now?
What's the Tesla target?(±30%?)
So that's 70% of the global car market remaining.
It's not a problem.
(until automation reduces it, and Tesla will be leading that)
Thanks for the vid. Very optimistic and hopeful. And I see the possibilities. But a few things I disagree with.
Tesla cannot provide drivetrains to other OEMs. They simply don't have the capacity for it. Everybody does not buy the cheapest gasoline cars today. Everybody does not have to use the cheapest and best (Tesla) drivetrain in BEVs. Why doesn't everyone use Toyota drivetrains in ICEVs?
Robots are years away from doing productive work in factories. Maybe in warehouses in 2-3 years. Demo vids are all staged and made to look more impressive. Robots currently can't even navigate a building without specific guidance or physical markers on a floor. They also are way too slow. And notice how for instance Optimus only uses one arm/hand to do a job that can and should be more productively done using both arms/hands. Of all the things you are optimistic about, your estimates on when robots will do productive work in factories are the most unlikely. A robot that can do 2 or 3 things can't replace a human worker. They will only augment hima workers for the foreseeable future.
FSD at L4 I think might be possible by year end. L5 will take a little longer but probably by the end of next year.
There will be no vehicles produced on the Unboxed method for at least another 12 months. Manufacturing is not software and to get the lines built and supply chains ready will take about a year from unveiling. At least a year.
Margins won't improve for a while. People have been calling for margins to bottom and increase for at least 4 quarters now.
All that being said, I think reaching L4 sometime this year ir even H1 '25 will be enough to set the stock soaring. And U think some Chinese OEMs will start the FSD partnership wave before any of the Western or legacy brands capitulate. But it will happen.
And if FSD is the killer app that launches the real AI boom, the humanoid robot hype train will drive it hard within a few years.
Just like the Internet, AI (and specifically humanoid robots) will deliver. But first there will be a massive bubble without the promise holding up. Then the crash and delivery on the promises probably a decade after the bubble has popped.
Great video and comments . I think that the pace of advancement of AI in general is taking everyone by surprise , even Elon . This is only mid May of 2024 and look where we are with FSD! I believe FSD will be mature enough for deployment before the end of 2024 especially in China. There is already a glut of cheap EVs in China and many manufacturers there are facing bankruptcy. If these Chinese EV manufacturers can licence FSD and own their self made "fleets" with recurring revenue then their chances of survival is more likely. Then they will also sell these "fleets" to other countries once the Chinese market is saturated . How quickly will the hardware needed for FSD be installed into the Chinese EVs? Lightening fast. BYD will be first. Other OEMs around the globe that are facing extinction due to ICE sales collapse will be slower to follow but will eventually follow. They will use the same fleet model in order to survive.
The Tesla bot for the same reason that AI is advancing so rapidly will deploy quickly too in 2025 . TSLA stock price ? When it is unleashed , because the manipulation can no longer keep it down, it will be equally spectacular to watch. I think that will happen before the end of this year.......
Totally agree - AI progress and the surprising speed is the central driver for the accelerated timeline and Wall Street doesn’t get it (yet) , which is a huge opportunity 😮
I am a firm believer in learning and having the product makes you more qualified to talk about it. I owned a Tesla model 3 2018 for 5 years,a model Y with FSD in 2023 and also a Cyber truck in 2024. Plus Tesla stock.