Most Excellent insights, Thank you Mr. John Anderson & esp. Mr. Niall Ferguson. Your mindful analyses are quite important for us to be able to listen and think properly. Cheers and God bless
Thanks John for this conversation with Ferguson whose sound analysis has put this dangerous US/China tension into the right perspective. This needs to be broadcast everywhere.
He completely misses the encirclement of nuclear subs can only trigger China into ever-more aggressive stance. The radioactive dust of Australian cities and people will suddenly cool the planet long enough for us to wean off petroleum. Thanks?
@@jonathanedwardgibson You are a goose JG thinking that little Australia would be a worry to the CCP. Yeah, they will do their cyber-war and 'influence' operations, not as effectively now as more than ever people and nations are aware of the threat and subversion, and the political and monetary cost of the Belt and Road, but really we are not much in their thinking. Subs will be nuke POWERED not armed.
Now we have seen the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the backing of China. It shows you how important AUKUS is and how we knew it was going to happen.
Very good points. I hadn't considered that the USA has gone through multiple "imminent collapse" stages in the past, only to arise stronger than before.
@@kimuvat2461 The US has only been the "clear no 1" since WW2. The US became the largest economy around 1890 (and it still has the largest nominal GDP) -- but the dollar was not the main reserve currency (as it is now) nor did it have the most powerful military (as it does now).
@@Jaapst China represents 17.3% of nominal GDP. The West pretty much all the rest. The USD accounts for 88% of international currency trade, the Chinese Yuan, 3.4%. As inferred above, the USD is now World Reserve Currency. The USD finds protection from Western Central Banks, the Petrodollar set-up and the Eurocurrency markets. Where China has been successful is attracting exporters, who don’t diversify their markets, and, with the Brick & Road and other build dependency initiatives. The World has to manage the Coronavirus in the short term. Later, the counter might be to deny China coal, iron ore and other resources. Also, pull back on FDI into plant and equipment, recalling, Communists are not beyond nationalisation of private industries.
@@petersinclair3997 look don’t you see the USA is collapsing now for real? Are you so blind? We are headed to an totalitarian society in the west with forced jabs multiple times for a “pandemic”. This kind of polarization also in de USA has never happened so bad since the Civil war. Open your eyes.
19:08 “I hope that there is a lot of goodwill in Britain towards Australia”. As a Briton, I’d say you have no need to worry on that score, John, except, maybe, that it stops at the perimeter or the cricket field and rugby pitch. 🤛 from the Poms!
@@johnneville403 no. A monarchist wrote legislation that made everyone hate him for a few months. Because he literally said The Queen or the American system. Oh and this is the last vote you'll be allowed to have on it from here on out which isn't legal but there you go. Also it was a referendum which if he'd lost he could have legally ignored and probably would have so Howard was hedging his bets.
@@TGBurgerGaming I love how republicans always pretend there isn't an overwhelming majority of people supporting the Monarchy lol. I'm an American and by definition a republican, so I don't have a dog in this fight, but the tactics of outrage are interesting to point out lol. God Save the Queen lol?????😂😂
A relief to hear an intelligent strategic conversation about as comprehensive as one can get in one hour. A refreshing contrast to the currently debased hyper-partisan public discourse in the United States. Good subjects for another discussion would be economic globalization and migration, which agitate the Western public and animate populism.
Thank you Mr.Anderson for your continuing initiatives & thank you Mr.Furguson for sharing your thoughts; very much appreciated. I think this is such an important conversation because it reinvigorates - the proverbial campfire meetings that humanity itself was likely forged from. Here's to wishing the both of you & your teams the very best.
about 49 minutes in, John talks about the surveillance state in CCP, all valid points. I wonder if he is aware of his own country has been increasingly become that way during covid
@@linmal2242 It would seem quite naïve to think that the State would be willing to give up so much power unless it is ruled by the greatest of men, which the rulers of the world are not.
@@jimcook1747 Fair go. To assume the worst of democratically-accountable leaders who have been forced into challenging circumstances is an effective way to blind oneself to those would-be leaders who actually are anti-democratic. The Left is using the government's strategy used to mitigate the death and health risks of the pandemic to smear the government's broader motives - with the goal of blinding the people to their own Party's authoritarian plans. It's what they always do- Marxism-Socialism- Communism 101.
The definition of 'cyber war' should include the manipulation of the culture and the psychology of Western populas via polarizing citizens through redherring conflicts of via disinformation/internet... and causing disruptions which create social tension, like Covid.
Agree with levcimac. Because Psychological manipulation of disinformation works on an emotional level in the cyber space of our digital would where there's no safeguard on a personal level as we are on our own mist of time when we accessing internet.
Two crucial potential Western allies that weren't mentioned are Vietnam and the Philippines. Securing their support for the defense of Taiwan, effectively undermines PLA planning and improves the odds of a successful Quad/AUKUS intervention. Vietnam doesn't need a lot of persuasion, they've got long standing serious beef with the PRC. The Duterte administration in the Philippines has been openly pro-Chinese, often to the outrage of the regular Filipinos and the military, but now it seems they're on the way out... The US and Australia could pay a little more attention to the PH, help them modernize and start treating them as a proper member of the English-speaking world.
Just need to say that Australia and Australians are very very well liked in the UK. Any criticism (not actually aware of what the interviewer was referring to) should really be set in that context.
In another Video of Nialls, he said that it is typical that at the beginning of a pandemic, the local government hesitant to admit how serious the outbreak is. Why should China supposed to be different?
@@linmal2242 On Dec. 27. 2019 was it for the local government in Wuhan relatively sure, that Covid can be transmitted between humans and reported it to the higher government level. On Dec. 30. 2019, only less than 72 hours later, the Chinese government informed the WHO about the new findings. How faster could it be done?
John…what a great interview..& by far the best discussion & analysis to date on those issues that have been to date provided by those commentators who fail to see the big picture except thru a petty partisan political mindset from both current & past political leaders let alone a media unwilling or unable to examine & comment with anything that reflects the reality of what is playing out before us..
This was great, thanks. I personally have found that prepping with some long term food stores, a large vegetable garden, some fruit trees, water tanks, chicken coop (if your land size and council allow it) and a solar battery system has actually made me much more optimistic about everything else that is out of my control. Plus the added bonus of prepping saving you money in the long run is nice. I think both extremes of the political spectrum are very negative about the social and geopolitical outlook in general. Everyone is being pushed to the extreme ends of the spectrum more and more these days and the internet is not helping that. The most rational people are somewhere in the middle staying quiet and hopefully they are still the vast majority.
A refreshing antidote to the nonsense and confected fears, that pass as mainstream news and comment. More please, thanks guys for your calm teaching and knowledge.
This is brilliant!!! So many of my ideas have been challenged by this conversation and many more questions raised that will set my course for further investigation. Thank you !!!
As the opening sentence says' prepare,prepare, prepare' so that really does justify the decision to ditch the French boats and go with a proven Brit or Yankee model. But the better plan would also be to lease a couple in the meantime, for crew familiiarisation, departmental management and immediate deterance !
Yes. A good idea would be for Australia to buy the latest Astute/Virginia off the Brits/Yanks, and set up a production line of their own, building the same class (whichever they choose). This would be a much lower technical risk than designing their own class of subs, and would result in them being built more quickly and at lower cost.
I think America needs allies that is share the same visions and values to the world not those allies who would constantly flip face with America hurting America’s interests.
As a UK citizen and resident, it worries me that so much of the merchandise here is made in China. I have been trying my utmost not to buy anything from China, but it is near impossible. Even if something is not made in China, very often the components will be. Another thing that has come to my notice is that there is so much copying of British technology that is simply being copied by China. In fact, there are British firms that specialise in finding British made goods and having them de-engineered and copied by Chinese firms for the UK market. Surely, there should be higher tariffs placed on Chinese goods, so that locally made goods can compete.
What an excellent analysis, which was so broad ranging. Insights which the MSM media has avoided such as the optimism which technological advancement brings to the geo-strategic-political scene. Even to the insecurity of the CCP and the similarity to Nazi regime pre-WW2. But the best bit was the self diplomatic isolation of the CCP and the order of wolf warrior diplomacy that was so bad it even pisses off the French, that’s something! Thank you.
If you think a ‘small force’ could have kept Afghanistan indefinitely you’re a fool. The cost was simply too high for the reward. When you end a failed strategy you get stronger.
Wrong - i think. The US could have possibly maintained a semi-permanent air base at Bagram to oversee Chinese B&R activity in Western Asia in much the same way the the UK mainstains its sovereign bases in Cyprus at relatively small cost.
@@philipanthony9596 Why, to continue money-laundering operations? Before you answer know I was a DoD contractor when 911 and watched the official lies and mis-direction early on. Before the failed War-on-Terror our richest cities were commercial, Houston + energy, NY + finance, or Silicon Valley + tech. Now, as the globe watches America retreat, our Praetorian milspec Contractors declare victory as they occupy mega-mansion castles ringing seven of top-ten wealthiest counties surrounding DC & laying siege to every Congressional budget while e-sniffing our shorts. Nobody cares what citizen bottom-line cost is, because their own cut is mid-page and they’re soon off to waiting corporate gigs anyway. This is why we have no family care, solid wages, or cheap schooling, because Ivy cadres of opportunity-hoarders run America: we’ve been sacked. Right?
@@jonathanedwardgibson Non of which is relevant to my point. It’s certainly a great shame that the US has allowed American contractors to rip off their own government and people, but (perhaps unfortunately) the western alliance of countries is still the world’s best hope in containing a rampant China and preserving systems in which the rule of law is sovereign (however imperfectly). It’s easy to be cynical, but its a question of the least worst option. For better or worse, That means containing China by whatever means are available.
China's behavior is dangerous and needs to be checked ASAP. But our complacency worries me as well. AUKUS seems a good idea to me. Hopefully we deepen our partnerships with like minded countries and strengthen our economic ties as well as our military ones. Great interview.
Suspect security is the reason for only three countries in AUKUS. Too much spycraft and opportunities for leaks with other countries. In recent times, even Canada and NZ have been drawn into China’s dependency initiatives.
Concerning Afghanistan: Neither of these men even consider the idea that, after 20 years of American sacrifice, Afghans who didn't want the Taliban should have stepped forward to defend their own country against them. They didn't. They simply weren't interested. They were more interested, as in Vietnam, in profiting from the American presence. The Taliban won because they wanted it more. America could have propped up Afghanistan for another century and it wouldn't have made any difference.
John & Niall, sagacious questions and discourse, as ever. That "catastrophism" augers ill, is self evident. However, the west it seems, for the moment at least, to be roiling, navel gazing, and self harming, with little geo-political focus. One hopes that circumstances do not conspire to hurl us into a conflict again, as so often in the past.......notwithstanding that a conflict would ultimately yield, catharsis. Thank you both.
May God help whoever pokes the US right now. The left & right would love to unite on something, and turn their anger at each other towards some common enemy.
One of the underlying concepts not discussed here is why Beijing and DC cannot agree to a mutually beneficial power sharing deal in the pacific. Why rock the boat? Everyone is making money and enjoying Chinese goods. Why rock it?
Because China is militarising oceans stretching 800km south of it southern coast to the edge of Indonesia. China's neighbours are under no illusions as to what it's doing.
AUKUS This is my take on what's behind the new treaty based on interviews of people and the timeline of events and why the Australians did not go for French nuclear subs. 1. Due to the change of strategic concerns the Australians change their minds and go for SSN's. 2. The French are unlikely to transfer their nuclear tech the the Australian government so they can build their own subs. 3. The French barracuda subs need to be refueled every 8-10 years, not a problem for France who have a large nuclear industry but a big problem for Australia. The US/UK subs have a 25 year reactor life so never need refueling (the subs lifespan is 25 years). This means the Australians can build the boat (with the reactor coming from US or the UK and just operate the sub for 25 years, then most likely hand off the sub to the US/UK for decommissioning. 4. My guess is the Australian's will/have already chosen the Astute class for their subs due to lower cost (the last few boats have come in under budget) and fewer crew needed to operate them. 5. The UK is in a unique position with decommissioning subs and the end of the Astute class build for the UK. 6. The 3 Trafalgar class boats are to be decommissioned as the last Astute's (boats 6 and 7) are commissioned, these boats can be leased to Australia to train up the Australian crew on safely operating nuclear subs. 7. The last of the Astute class is under construction (boats 6 and 7) and will be in the water by 2026 (boat 6 around 2024). this opens up a build slot for an Australian Astute class to start construction in 2024-25 and possibly a second boat in 2026-27. 9. So by 2027 Australia could have 1-3 Trafalgar class subs under lease and 2 Astute's under construction, with boats 3 to 8 built in the UK for speed. 10. The new UK program called SSNR will likely be a joint venture with Australia to keep down costs and these will be the Subs built in the land of the giant jumping mice, around the late 2030s 11. And none of this is possible without US permission as UK reactor tech is partially based on US tech and the decommissioning will most likely be handled by the US as they have larger facilities for the decommissioning of nuclear subs. So, what do you think? is any of this likely or complete nonsense. Of course the Australians may go with the Virginia class
I'm not convinced any longer of "West's" moral superiority. Based upon my personal experience in NSW and witnessing the behaviour of the Victorian government we seem to be heading towards totalitarianism. I worry about our future. As a dual UK/Australian citizen I'm delighted by this purchase of the submarine. And yes without question we need to remain close to UK/Australian for our security. But all three countries need to be careful we don't destroy our democracies.
Professor Niall Ferguson wrote a book about Henry Kissinger but there are a lot about Kissinger that he doesnt know about it. The former foreign minister Le Duc Tho met Kissinger 16 times negotiation for peace agreement. Mr Le told communist party leaders and journalist Henry Kissinger "A clown singing like a pig" that the reason he refused to give America any concession. I love to see Le Duc Tho vs Robert Menzies. " Licking the British empire arses" . Vietnamese tough guy
“Devastated Biden?” I totally missed that. As you said; they are academics. Neil Ferguson is a very brilliant historian, I totally believe his analysis about China’s actual weakness.
inequality is not a problem.. climate change will only lead to mass migration.. said during the biggest wealth transfer in human history and the biggest mass migration in human history in an conversation between a renowned academic and a politician. i mean, there were a lot of good points there and some very interesting insights about china, but these guys could take a walk in an ordinary persons shoes sometime. my wages are stagnating heavily and i'll never afford a house. the demographics of my neighbourhood are changing and crime is on the rise.
There is the slight sticking point of a lack of support from britain in the pacific theatre in ww2 when Japan threatened Australia's mainland. But that's the only example I could think of....I think it was also somewhat of a catalyst for the growing relationship between the US and Australia
I don't know why people talk about the situation in Afghanistan as if they truly know what's going on. It wasn't good but it was necessary. It's not the US' failure as so much as it was the afghans that wanted democracy failure to protect it when they had 20 years to work that out. They're was definitely some money grabbing and pocketing going on and ultimately it became a money pit. The US needs to focus on China now since it has done such a good job at supplementing it into become a modern day fascist nazi regime. NOT socialism with "Chinese tendencies". Let's not kid ourselves on that.
"If our geopolitical rivals have figured out how to take down our communications" Twitter and Facebook have both gone down recently. Do we have root cause on either of those?
That was a real white pill. I'm not sure if I'm completely convinced that all of the positivity is well founded but this video does provide some good perspective and is great overall.
Ok but did you know that right at the very time this interview was taking place....Both the Canadian and New Zealand Navies were exercising with the US UK and other allied Navies. Around Taiwan and the South China Sea area!? Thats precisely the current hot zone to do with China isnt it!? And since AUKUS primarily seems to be about Australia buying nuclear powered submarines. At this point - what is there to actually join? New Zealand is already a member of ANZUS, IE. The Australia New Zealand United States Defence Agreement. And has been since its inception in 1951! And both Australia and the US have said AUKUS doesnt replace ANZUS. Mmm...? Plus NZ is also a member of the 5 power Defence arrangements between the UK Malaysia Singapore New Zealand and Australia. As well as the 5 eyes intel sharing agreement! Between the US UK Canada Australia New Zealand. And Canada is a founding member of NATO! And a member of the North American Defence Agreements. What more is required!? Or do you think that you cant ever have a difference of opinion in these alliances!? However, even, when there are differences of viewpoint. Why would you then want to drive a further wedge between members of the alliances you already belong to? How does that help!? Unless of course that is actually what you want to do! Manoeuvre these other countries out!
@@davidtaylor351 Canada ‘s Trudeau is a CCP admirer being raised by his Marxist father. This Trudeau campaigned to have the Chinese Army train in winter warfare on Canadian soil. He cannot, must not, be trusted. There is very good chance Canada will be sidelined from the 5 eyes arrangement. Trudeau and his cabal are a liability to western democratic values. As for Canada joining in naval exercises, Canada has a couple of boats. That is not a navy.
@@jonnyboy2128 I cant speak about Justin Trudeau to much. As i am not Canadian. And havent followed him that closely. But i did read the idea of allowing Chinese troops to do winter training in Canada was quietly sidelined by the Canadian Army. Or at least restricted. Not sure about that. So must update myself on it!! Anyway i am not a political fan of Justin Trudeau or Jacinda Ardern. Their politics dont represent my values! Nevertheless i have learnt to check things out for myself! As there is often a difference between what a politician actually says and how others portray what they said!! Or perhaps more importantly. Between what they say, for political impact! And, what they actually do!! And although as stated, i am not a supporter of Aderns. Nevertheless, she has been misrepresented at times. And yes, there is a marxist hard left at work in our western countries. And they are a corrosive - insidiously undermining influence!!! However, although not as pervasive. There is also a rigid, and at times myopic right! For instance! The same Australian government that today is warning us about the rising threat of China! Is the same government that in 2015 allowed the lease of a strategic port in Darwin Northern Territory Australia. - To China - for 99 years! With rights of renewal!! Neither do i see how the currently faction ridden, woke saturated politically disingenuous US. Can, at least for the time being anyway! - Be seen as representing the high Beacon of Democracy for the world!! I certainly struggle with that notion!!
@@davidtaylor351 David, thanks for your excellent response. So refreshing to read a reply not tinged with blatant invective! As an ex pat living in Canada for over 40 years I can offer an "immigrant's perspective" on the decline of Canada. Pierre Trudeau was an admirer of Marxist ideology. He put in put place a slow and inexorable decline in national living standards. He along, with successive Liberal Party grandees, believed that Central Canada ( Quebec and Ontario) should continue its dismissive attitude of the rise of Western Provincial economic power. The 1970s oil shock took Alberta to the forefront of Canadian economic activity, and indeed contribution to the broader Canadian economy. Pierre Trudeau's National Energy Plan (1981) shut the oil industry down. Families suffered, suicides skyrocketed. Being a socialist he didn't care. The current Trudeau iteration has continued his father's work to the point at which talk of separation ( or at least of a more equitable arrangement) of the Western provinces Alberta and Saskatchewan will be dismissed at Trudeau's peril. Canada is historically a left of the historical centre country. Blessed with abundant resources, a more Scandinavian attitude than its neighbour to the south, it was a good blend of UK heritage and US enterprise. However, under successive left leaning governments it has become a paternalistic society (caring for those unwilling to care for themselves) whereas it used to be a caring society ( caring for those unable to care for themselves). Average incomes are now lower than Singapore. as an aside Trudeau attended LSE as did Lee Kwan Yew. Trudeau took all in which he had been indoctrinated and took Canada down a declining economic path. Lee Kwan Yew dismissed all in which the LSE is know for and founded Singapore. The rest is history. Lower productivity and an expanding public sector are hallmarks of a failing industrial society. The statistical standard of living in Canada is now well below what it was when I arrived 40 years ago. I too am not a fan of shallow personality politics, Trudeau and Ahern ( of whom I know little) are fine examples; certainly in Trudeau's case. He is documented as being bereft of intellect, ethics and morals. Who should we blame for these people coming to power? Certainly not politicians. It is in my view a consequence of the broader leftist agenda of lower education standards magnified by extreme Marxist ideology being promulgated at the University level. The intolerance of the left, rather than being called out for what it is, an agenda against freedom of speech and thought, is is now an acceptable characteristic of daily life. The UK is a fine example of this, sadly. This must change. I can forgive voters being seduced by wild promises made by coiffured politicians, once. I cannot forgive them for voting such politicians back into power two or three times.
If China is a danger to the U.S. because it is being weakened by economic, political, cultural, and ideological failure within, surely one must argue that the U.S. must be seen as a danger to China for the same reasons. So, I reject this argument on its face. The fact is that China has explicitly territorial objectives, and the U.S. - and the rest of the West - doesn't.
@@worlddd7777 Perhaps you could point out to us which territory the U.S. wishes to occupy and rule as a territory of the United States? We already know the territories China has recently taken, and their openly declared desire for annexation of Taiwan.
I dont agree. I do not think it is a sure thing! In the event of a 'Chinese invasion'. Just how would the US defend Taiwan? Given the Chinese would have the primary local/geographic advantages!? Which include, much shorter supply and re-supply lines, to support their forces!! And they have the ability to saturate the area with missiles ships subs and attack aircraft! Along with assault ground forces. And would the US risk a nuclear war with China, over Taiwan? A military engagement against China is several notches up from taking on Saddam Hussein, Al qaeda and the Taliban! And even there, ultimately the US lost Afghanistan! If it comes down to it! - When faced with the reality! Would the US be prepared to accept the loss of several thousand troops. Plus ships, aircraft and military kit on a scale not seen since WW2!? - To defend Taiwan!? I have my doubts about that!!
@@chickenfishhybrid44 It isnt that the US has no assets or bases in the region. Or that China wouldn't also take some hits! It would! However China with 1.4 billion people lives! - Right next door to Taiwan! In respect of geography. The immediate tactical support, and on going strategic re-supply advantages are with China! And i have my doubts. - If it ever comes down to it! - In regard to Taiwan. That - politically the US would commit itself to the scale of military intervention required! With the potential loss of several thousand personnel! - And ships aircraft and various military resources at a level not seen since the Korean war or WW2! - Let alone the attendant risks involved with any war between nuclear powers!! And if the US was to build up forces in and around Taiwan beforehand. China would do exactly the same. With the strong possibility that such an escation would trigger the very war. "That apparently everyone" wants to avoid!! PS. There is also, increasingly closer military and naval cooperation between Russia and China, in the Pacific and elsewhere playing into the mix!!
That was really informative and enjoyable. I am a big fan of Niall Ferguson and his comments on Chinese self-isolation and self-aware risk is something that should be discussed more. However, I am not sure I agree with Niall's evaluation of Chinese/Soviet relations. In principle, 'don't trust Putin' makes sense. But,.....they only need to co-operate once. China invades Taiwan and Russia invades the Ukraine in a co-ordinated effort. NATO is splintered. Turkey/Greece division and conflict, for example. The lack of funding in the military, particularly Germany. US apathy towards the EU and their commitment to NATO. These are real issues that encourage Russian action. Then it gets worse if China and Russia co-ordinate their moves against Taiwan and the Ukraine respectively. Imagine that? Imagine the decision making the US leadership has to conduct. The US is still the premier military power. But it cannot fight wars in both Europe and the West Pacific,...like it did in WW2. We need to evaluate all possible courses of action. And without doubt, the Most dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA) is co-ordination by China and Russia in order to enable invasions of Taiwan and the Ukraine,...to negate NATO/US/AUKUS/QUAD response.
Over time, UK and Aus are going to really have to up defense spending and make much larger standing armies. Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore too. Each place needs indigenous capability to sustain a conventional attack for a long period without substantial reinforcements.
It's strange that you discuss AUKUS as if it was an American initiative. Australia approached Britain, and only then did the Brits get the Americans involved. That's not surprising. The subs the Aussies eventually end up with are likely to look a lot more like the Astute-class than the Virginia-class, simply due to a lack of submariners.
Superb, probative, intelligent, and sobering dialogue gentlemen. I've always thought Niall Ferguson was a bit too conservative for my liking however, in this format, I have become quite comfortable with his logic though, I believe he gives far too much credit to Reagan and certainly Bush1 for the demise of Soviet communism which fell under it's own weight of corruption and inefficiency! Unfortunately, what has evolved in its place is mega corruption on a much more efficient scale by concentrating the power in the hands of one man as the last 10 days have so proven!
One question> If the advanced US Seawolf collision came from an undersea drone with stealth capabilities, how would this change the submarine calculus? Russia is producing nuclear-powered and nuclear-tipped torpedoes which when detonated have the potential to sink US fleets and their submarines. Good presentation.
Only Australians would react out of proportion when its situated furthest from China than countries having contested territorial claims that are alot more prudent. Just admit it. Australia is still hung up with its white culture and countries like China aren't compatible to the supremacist Anglo Saxons. Shilling for Uncle Sam is just one of that reasons
@@123-h5i5y All three ANZUS country’s are multiple cultural and have diverse populations: There are ethnically Han Chinese in Governments. How many Caucasians in the politburo? It is unsurprising Australia, the modern UK and the US share cultural attributes and values. Folk from all around the World seek to emigrate to these three successful countries.
@@petersinclair3997 My comment was about Australia. Well, how many minorities are there in the Australian govt? Even the only elected Asian woman MP in the govt party couldn't escape being accused as a Chinese spy.
@@123-h5i5y Indeed, all these self-righteous talking of the "learned scholars" really is sick. Their fixed point of China being the villain of all evils and the US with its West allies the all glorious democratic beacon of the world is simply beyond comprehension. This Western based biased world view simply won't be accepted here in many Asian countries. The arrogant West still consider themselves the 'superior' over others, and can not treat other non-West peope with respect and equality. Considering all the atrocities the West committed during the colonial era of several hundread years, it is astoundingly hypocracy to still procaim as the right side of this world....
At minute 48:00 John Anderson summarizes the Chinese condition. Remember the Chinese value stability and security far more than freedom. North Korea is an example of how far the CCP can and will take things to maintain Dr. Ferguson's first Chinese Government's goal... maintain power.
I get the ribbons on the uniform comment but it isn't inherently bad. During peace time you still need a way to promote officers based upon merit and meritocratic awards are the best way to do that during peace time. It only takes looking at the interwar French military to see the downside of not keeping merit based promotion active during peace time.
Presently Oz owns six submarines and can only crew three. Given Nukes run a two crew regime, how does Oz claim it can crew eight Nukes, sixteen crews of twice the size (32)! Dreaming? Know that since 1945 Oz has had a continuing problem in staffing its armed forces. I know of no analysis that takes the vast increse necessary in submariners in an RAN that sees vessels on slipways for want of a crew, notwitstanding the need for new training/education for sailors and officers. Hot air is AUKUS?
What is the central question of Cold War II? Let me propose, "How do we harness expertise (such as industrial policy) in the service of a free people?"
@@merlingeikie And we did that by answering the question, "How do we best distribute the mountains of goods that industrialization can produce?" with market economics. Right now, China is proposing that the right approach to expertise is to give it dictatorial power. If we want to remain free, we need to figure out how to take our own expertise and, as I said, harness it in the service of a free people.
Agree Ben…amazing how even some of the most promising intellectuals seem almost afraid to challenge the status quo, and forget how much climate change has occurred long before mankind walked the planet. Just an excuse from the elites to steal money from the working classes to further enrich themselves and then control them more, virtue signaling all the way to bank
Yes, the climate has changed many times in the last 2000 years. Instead of trying to control the climate, we should be utilising resources to mitigate change. James Delingpole has done great work on showing the connection between climate / environmental groups and communism. As long ago as 1950 they recognised that the working class would not rise up whilst they were kept comfortable with affordable electricity. Even then they discussed the need for global bodies to deny people access to affordable power.
Most Excellent insights, Thank you Mr. John Anderson & esp. Mr. Niall Ferguson.
Your mindful analyses are quite important for us to be able to listen and think properly.
Cheers and God bless
Thanks John for this conversation with Ferguson whose sound analysis has put this dangerous US/China tension into the right perspective. This needs to be broadcast everywhere.
He completely misses the encirclement of nuclear subs can only trigger China into ever-more aggressive stance.
The radioactive dust of Australian cities and people will suddenly cool the planet long enough for us to wean off petroleum. Thanks?
@@jonathanedwardgibson You are a goose JG thinking that little Australia would be a worry to the CCP. Yeah, they will do their cyber-war and 'influence' operations, not as effectively now as more than ever people and nations are aware of the threat and subversion, and the political and monetary cost of the Belt and Road, but really we are not much in their thinking. Subs will be nuke POWERED not armed.
Empty pipe bag, Niall.
Now we have seen the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the backing of China. It shows you how important AUKUS is and how we knew it was going to happen.
US can no longer police the world 🌎 with its rogue democratic ways. Thank god the US would decline due to its own might
Very good points. I hadn't considered that the USA has gone through multiple "imminent collapse" stages in the past, only to arise stronger than before.
@@kimuvat2461 The US has only been the "clear no 1" since WW2.
The US became the largest economy around 1890 (and it still has the largest nominal GDP) -- but the dollar was not the main reserve currency (as it is now) nor did it have the most powerful military (as it does now).
This one is different
@@Jaapst China represents 17.3% of nominal GDP. The West pretty much all the rest. The USD accounts for 88% of international currency trade, the Chinese Yuan, 3.4%. As inferred above, the USD is now World Reserve Currency. The USD finds protection from Western Central Banks, the Petrodollar set-up and the Eurocurrency markets.
Where China has been successful is attracting exporters, who don’t diversify their markets, and, with the Brick & Road and other build dependency initiatives. The World has to manage the Coronavirus in the short term. Later, the counter might be to deny China coal, iron ore and other resources. Also, pull back on FDI into plant and equipment, recalling, Communists are not beyond nationalisation of private industries.
@@petersinclair3997 look don’t you see the USA is collapsing now for real? Are you so blind? We are headed to an totalitarian society in the west with forced jabs multiple times for a “pandemic”. This kind of polarization also in de USA has never happened so bad since the Civil war. Open your eyes.
@@Jaapst and don't forget fluoridation!
19:08 “I hope that there is a lot of goodwill in Britain towards Australia”. As a Briton, I’d say you have no need to worry on that score, John, except, maybe, that it stops at the perimeter or the cricket field and rugby pitch. 🤛 from the Poms!
Can we keep you and send your queen back. Even though she doesn't live here?
@@johnneville403 no. A monarchist wrote legislation that made everyone hate him for a few months. Because he literally said The Queen or the American system. Oh and this is the last vote you'll be allowed to have on it from here on out which isn't legal but there you go. Also it was a referendum which if he'd lost he could have legally ignored and probably would have so Howard was hedging his bets.
@@TGBurgerGaming Gotta catch me first!
Brit here. Very fond of Australia and Australians
@@TGBurgerGaming I love how republicans always pretend there isn't an overwhelming majority of people supporting the Monarchy lol.
I'm an American and by definition a republican, so I don't have a dog in this fight, but the tactics of outrage are interesting to point out lol. God Save the Queen lol?????😂😂
Good to see you back John. I always find your interviews most insightful and informative. Niall is one of my favourites…
Thank you so much Doug!
A relief to hear an intelligent strategic conversation about as comprehensive as one can get in one hour. A refreshing contrast to the currently debased hyper-partisan public discourse in the United States. Good subjects for another discussion would be economic globalization and migration, which agitate the Western public and animate populism.
This is an excellent conversation gentlemen, thank you.
Thank you Mr.Anderson for your continuing initiatives & thank you Mr.Furguson for sharing your thoughts; very much appreciated. I think this is such an important conversation because it reinvigorates - the proverbial campfire meetings that humanity itself was likely forged from. Here's to wishing the both of you & your teams the very best.
Thank you John Anderson for a very interesting discussion
about 49 minutes in, John talks about the surveillance state in CCP, all valid points. I wonder if he is aware of his own country has been increasingly become that way during covid
Only as a means to arrest the pandemic. With enough vaccinated cohort of the populace, the pandemic is diminished!
@@linmal2242 It would seem quite naïve to think that the State would be willing to give up so much power unless it is ruled by the greatest of men, which the rulers of the world are not.
I thought the same thing.
@@linmal2242 The roll out of which has also been one of unconstitutional government control
@@jimcook1747 Fair go. To assume the worst of democratically-accountable leaders who have been forced into challenging circumstances is an effective way to blind oneself to those would-be leaders who actually are anti-democratic. The Left is using the government's strategy used to mitigate the death and health risks of the pandemic to smear the government's broader motives - with the goal of blinding the people to their own Party's authoritarian plans. It's what they always do- Marxism-Socialism- Communism 101.
The definition of 'cyber war' should include the manipulation of the culture and the psychology of Western populas via polarizing citizens through redherring conflicts of via disinformation/internet... and causing disruptions which create social tension, like Covid.
Yes, it's called Biological Warfare, the Wuhan Plague.
Regimes. Regimes. Regimes
yup, going to be like this from here on out
Really? War? Really?
Sure, it might count as a cyber war, if you completely hollow out the meaning of war.
Agree with levcimac. Because Psychological manipulation of disinformation works on an emotional level in the cyber space of our digital would where there's no safeguard on a personal level as we are on our own mist of time when we accessing internet.
Two crucial potential Western allies that weren't mentioned are Vietnam and the Philippines. Securing their support for the defense of Taiwan, effectively undermines PLA planning and improves the odds of a successful Quad/AUKUS intervention.
Vietnam doesn't need a lot of persuasion, they've got long standing serious beef with the PRC. The Duterte administration in the Philippines has been openly pro-Chinese, often to the outrage of the regular Filipinos and the military, but now it seems they're on the way out... The US and Australia could pay a little more attention to the PH, help them modernize and start treating them as a proper member of the English-speaking world.
@Reckless Abandon i think they would choose the US over China, assuming they think the US is stable and won't pull another Afghanistan.
@@paulmcclung9383 Vietnam won't choose US.. Because of RCEP and Kamala Harris disastrous show in Vietnam.
Having travelled to Vietnam before it seemed to me that their national identity is equal parts anti-Chinese and anti-American.
Vietnam ain't becoming Western ally. Phillips can, who knows
Thank you, John. As ever, great conversation, interesting guest.
Thanks for listening!
Just need to say that Australia and Australians are very very well liked in the UK.
Any criticism (not actually aware of what the interviewer was referring to) should really be set in that context.
First rate, educational, important and thought provoking. Thanks.
Glad you enjoyed it!
An amazing interview and feel I learned so much. God Speed and God Bless
Thank you!
In another Video of Nialls, he said that it is typical that at the beginning of a pandemic, the local government hesitant to admit how serious the outbreak is. Why should China supposed to be different?
Because after knowing, they tried hard to cover it up instead of telling the world !
@@linmal2242 On Dec. 27. 2019 was it for the local government in Wuhan relatively sure, that Covid can be transmitted between humans and reported it to the higher government level. On Dec. 30. 2019, only less than 72 hours later, the Chinese government informed the WHO about the new findings. How faster could it be done?
@44:04 "Make Taiwan enough of a porcupine" So much genuine love here.
There is NO love in the CCP !
I would like to hear elaboration from Niall on why the Trump administration’s deal with the Taliban was a bad deal.
Because Orange Man is....
BAD.
Elaborate on Biden letting Ukraine get invaded by Russia.
John…what a great interview..& by far the best discussion & analysis to date on those issues that have been to date provided by those commentators who fail to see the big picture except thru a petty partisan political mindset from both current & past political leaders let alone a media unwilling or unable to examine & comment with anything that reflects the reality of what is playing out before us..
Excellent! Thank you.
There is a strong affinity between uk and aus, particularly in military.
This was great, thanks. I personally have found that prepping with some long term food stores, a large vegetable garden, some fruit trees, water tanks, chicken coop (if your land size and council allow it) and a solar battery system has actually made me much more optimistic about everything else that is out of my control.
Plus the added bonus of prepping saving you money in the long run is nice.
I think both extremes of the political spectrum are very negative about the social and geopolitical outlook in general. Everyone is being pushed to the extreme ends of the spectrum more and more these days and the internet is not helping that. The most rational people are somewhere in the middle staying quiet and hopefully they are still the vast majority.
Outstanding discussion. Thank you.😃
I enjoy your interviews enormously. Wish you were the leader of the National Party John
Where is there any proof that the UK is contemptuous of Australia? What nonsense. We Brits love the Aussies. Great discussion though.
Niall never fails to enlighten.
An illuminating analysis of China by Niall Ferguson. Well worth listening to. Thanks.
A refreshing antidote to the nonsense and confected fears, that pass as mainstream news and comment.
More please, thanks guys for your calm teaching and knowledge.
A very insightful and intelligent conversation!
Love your work John
Very good John, good job. Did Gloom and its a good read. Fantastic guest. Quality!
Great talk ! Thank you ...
This is both the most optimistic and the most depressing discussion I have heard on the topic. There is so much good stuff in here.
This is brilliant!!! So many of my ideas have been challenged by this conversation and many more questions raised that will set my course for further investigation. Thank you !!!
insightful and right on the ball as usual Niall.................do more TV docs please:)!
Great interview, thanks John and Niall
As the opening sentence says' prepare,prepare, prepare' so that really does justify the decision to ditch the French boats and go with a proven Brit or Yankee model. But the better plan would also be to lease a couple in the meantime, for crew familiiarisation, departmental management and immediate deterance !
Yes. A good idea would be for Australia to buy the latest Astute/Virginia off the Brits/Yanks, and set up a production line of their own, building the same class (whichever they choose). This would be a much lower technical risk than designing their own class of subs, and would result in them being built more quickly and at lower cost.
After the Russian invasion on Ukraine you can see how pathetic France and Germany are at doing anything in Europe let alone Asia Pacific.
I think America needs allies that is share the same visions and values to the world not those allies who would constantly flip face with America hurting America’s interests.
As a UK citizen and resident, it worries me that so much of the merchandise here is made in China.
I have been trying my utmost not to buy anything from China, but it is near impossible. Even if something is not made in China, very often the components will be.
Another thing that has come to my notice is that there is so much copying of British technology that is simply being copied by China. In fact, there are British firms that specialise in finding British made goods and having them de-engineered and copied by Chinese firms for the UK market.
Surely, there should be higher tariffs placed on Chinese goods, so that locally made goods can compete.
Historians call China’s copy and improve approach, “polishing Jade”.
What an excellent analysis, which was so broad ranging. Insights which the MSM media has avoided such as the optimism which technological advancement brings to the geo-strategic-political scene. Even to the insecurity of the CCP and the similarity to Nazi regime pre-WW2. But the best bit was the self diplomatic isolation of the CCP and the order of wolf warrior diplomacy that was so bad it even pisses off the French, that’s something! Thank you.
Glad you enjoyed in John!
If you think a ‘small force’ could have kept Afghanistan indefinitely you’re a fool. The cost was simply too high for the reward. When you end a failed strategy you get stronger.
Wrong - i think. The US could have possibly maintained a semi-permanent air base at Bagram to oversee Chinese B&R activity in Western Asia in much the same way the the UK mainstains its sovereign bases in Cyprus at relatively small cost.
@@philipanthony9596 Why, to continue money-laundering operations? Before you answer know I was a DoD contractor when 911 and watched the official lies and mis-direction early on. Before the failed War-on-Terror our richest cities were commercial, Houston + energy, NY + finance, or Silicon Valley + tech. Now, as the globe watches America retreat, our Praetorian milspec Contractors declare victory as they occupy mega-mansion castles ringing seven of top-ten wealthiest counties surrounding DC & laying siege to every Congressional budget while e-sniffing our shorts.
Nobody cares what citizen bottom-line cost is, because their own cut is mid-page and they’re soon off to waiting corporate gigs anyway. This is why we have no family care, solid wages, or cheap schooling, because Ivy cadres of opportunity-hoarders run America: we’ve been sacked.
Right?
@@jonathanedwardgibson
Non of which is relevant to my point. It’s certainly a great shame that the US has allowed American contractors to rip off their own government and people, but (perhaps unfortunately) the western alliance of countries is still the world’s best hope in containing a rampant China and preserving systems in which the rule of law is sovereign (however imperfectly). It’s easy to be cynical, but its a question of the least worst option. For better or worse, That means containing China by whatever means are available.
Informative as always.
Thanks, John
China's behavior is dangerous and needs to be checked ASAP. But our complacency worries me as well. AUKUS seems a good idea to me. Hopefully we deepen our partnerships with like minded countries and strengthen our economic ties as well as our military ones. Great interview.
Suspect security is the reason for only three countries in AUKUS. Too much spycraft and opportunities for leaks with other countries. In recent times, even Canada and NZ have been drawn into China’s dependency initiatives.
Japan is pushing for the Quad, Australia is pushing for Aukus -- it's nice that our allies are showing interest and initiative, here.
Concerning Afghanistan:
Neither of these men even consider the idea that, after 20 years of American sacrifice, Afghans who didn't want the Taliban should have stepped forward to defend their own country against them. They didn't. They simply weren't interested. They were more interested, as in Vietnam, in profiting from the American presence.
The Taliban won because they wanted it more. America could have propped up Afghanistan for another century and it wouldn't have made any difference.
Still great upon 2nd viewing 7 months later (along with Frank Fuledi & so many more of your interviews, John. 🙏✡️🇺🇸
With think tank intellectuals like Mr. Niall Ferguson providing such quality strategic analysis, China is really scared.
wonderng why John Anderson appeared so relaxed and calm , and Niall Ferguson acted so agitated and bending his face on the issues ?
Riveting. Thank you.
John Anderson is pure gold
Really good. Shared. Been living in Taiwan 🇹🇼 since ‘97.
John & Niall, sagacious questions and discourse, as ever. That "catastrophism" augers ill, is self evident. However, the west it seems, for the moment at least, to be roiling, navel gazing, and self harming, with little geo-political focus. One hopes that circumstances do not conspire to hurl us into a conflict again, as so often in the past.......notwithstanding that a conflict would ultimately yield, catharsis. Thank you both.
May God help whoever pokes the US right now. The left & right would love to unite on something, and turn their anger at each other towards some common enemy.
One of the underlying concepts not discussed here is why Beijing and DC cannot agree to a mutually beneficial power sharing deal in the pacific. Why rock the boat? Everyone is making money and enjoying Chinese goods. Why rock it?
Because China is militarising oceans stretching 800km south of it southern coast to the edge of Indonesia. China's neighbours are under no illusions as to what it's doing.
@@johnneville403 check out the history about southern china sea.
Good Analysis!
AUKUS
This is my take on what's behind the new treaty based on interviews of people and the timeline of events and why the Australians did not go for French nuclear subs.
1. Due to the change of strategic concerns the Australians change their minds and go for SSN's.
2. The French are unlikely to transfer their nuclear tech the the Australian government so they can build their own subs.
3. The French barracuda subs need to be refueled every 8-10 years, not a problem for France who have a large nuclear industry but a big problem for Australia. The US/UK subs have a 25 year reactor life so never need refueling (the subs lifespan is 25 years). This means the Australians can build the boat (with the reactor coming from US or the UK and just operate the sub for 25 years, then most likely hand off the sub to the US/UK for decommissioning.
4. My guess is the Australian's will/have already chosen the Astute class for their subs due to lower cost (the last few boats have come in under budget) and fewer crew needed to operate them.
5. The UK is in a unique position with decommissioning subs and the end of the Astute class build for the UK.
6. The 3 Trafalgar class boats are to be decommissioned as the last Astute's (boats 6 and 7) are commissioned, these boats can be leased to Australia to train up the Australian crew on safely operating nuclear subs.
7. The last of the Astute class is under construction (boats 6 and 7) and will be in the water by 2026 (boat 6 around 2024). this opens up a build slot for an Australian Astute class to start construction in 2024-25 and possibly a second boat in 2026-27.
9. So by 2027 Australia could have 1-3 Trafalgar class subs under lease and 2 Astute's under construction, with boats 3 to 8 built in the UK for speed.
10. The new UK program called SSNR will likely be a joint venture with Australia to keep down costs and these will be the Subs built in the land of the giant jumping mice, around the late 2030s
11. And none of this is possible without US permission as UK reactor tech is partially based on US tech and the decommissioning will most likely be handled by the US as they have larger facilities for the decommissioning of nuclear subs.
So, what do you think? is any of this likely or complete nonsense. Of course the Australians may go with the Virginia class
Interesting read. Very informative.
AUKUS will be about more than submarines going forward. Cooperation on R&D in multiple spheres of operations.
Thanks 👍
I'm not convinced any longer of "West's" moral superiority. Based upon my personal experience in NSW and witnessing the behaviour of the Victorian government we seem to be heading towards totalitarianism. I worry about our future. As a dual UK/Australian citizen I'm delighted by this purchase of the submarine. And yes without question we need to remain close to UK/Australian for our security. But all three countries need to be careful we don't destroy our democracies.
"Every form of addiction is bad, no matter whether the narcotic be alcohol or morphine or idealism." Carl Jung
Professor Niall Ferguson wrote a book about Henry Kissinger but there are a lot about Kissinger that he doesnt know about it. The former foreign minister Le Duc Tho met Kissinger 16 times negotiation for peace agreement. Mr Le told communist party leaders and journalist Henry Kissinger "A clown singing like a pig" that the reason he refused to give America any concession. I love to see Le Duc Tho vs Robert Menzies. " Licking the British empire arses" . Vietnamese tough guy
Difficult times ahead.
Hope the World Leaders realize that War is not an answer.
I love academics subtle use of language he just totally devastated Biden , and didn't even raise his voice :)
“Devastated Biden?” I totally missed that. As you said; they are academics. Neil Ferguson is a very brilliant historian, I totally believe his analysis about China’s actual weakness.
Mankind has had AD and BC, now we have GT(greta thunberg), rejoice!
Great interview 👍
Thanks Ricardo!
good job. Keep up the good work.
Thank you!
inequality is not a problem.. climate change will only lead to mass migration.. said during the biggest wealth transfer in human history and the biggest mass migration in human history in an conversation between a renowned academic and a politician. i mean, there were a lot of good points there and some very interesting insights about china, but these guys could take a walk in an ordinary persons shoes sometime. my wages are stagnating heavily and i'll never afford a house. the demographics of my neighbourhood are changing and crime is on the rise.
Please consider VDH as a guest to discuss this topic.
Love me some Niall
Deep discussion
Thank goodness for AUKUS!
43.11 Britain is not at all contemptuous of Australia and there is a lot of affection and respect for the ‘diggers’.
There is the slight sticking point of a lack of support from britain in the pacific theatre in ww2 when Japan threatened Australia's mainland. But that's the only example I could think of....I think it was also somewhat of a catalyst for the growing relationship between the US and Australia
On the other hand Xi had watched Putin make a calculated mistake with Ukraine
I don't know why people talk about the situation in Afghanistan as if they truly know what's going on. It wasn't good but it was necessary. It's not the US' failure as so much as it was the afghans that wanted democracy failure to protect it when they had 20 years to work that out. They're was definitely some money grabbing and pocketing going on and ultimately it became a money pit. The US needs to focus on China now since it has done such a good job at supplementing it into become a modern day fascist nazi regime. NOT socialism with "Chinese tendencies". Let's not kid ourselves on that.
"If our geopolitical rivals have figured out how to take down our communications"
Twitter and Facebook have both gone down recently. Do we have root cause on either of those?
That was a real white pill. I'm not sure if I'm completely convinced that all of the positivity is well founded but this video does provide some good perspective and is great overall.
5 eyes pacific anglo Canada & NZ left out because they have leaders that are still too soft on chyna
Ok but did you know that right at the very time this interview was taking place....Both the Canadian and New Zealand Navies were exercising with the US UK and other allied Navies. Around Taiwan and the South China Sea area!? Thats precisely the current hot zone to do with China isnt it!? And since AUKUS primarily seems to be about Australia buying nuclear powered submarines. At this point - what is there to actually join? New Zealand is already a member of ANZUS, IE. The Australia New Zealand United States Defence Agreement. And has been since its inception in 1951! And both Australia and the US have said AUKUS doesnt replace ANZUS. Mmm...? Plus NZ is also a member of the 5 power Defence arrangements between the UK Malaysia Singapore New Zealand and Australia. As well as the 5 eyes intel sharing agreement! Between the US UK Canada Australia New Zealand. And Canada is a founding member of NATO! And a member of the North American Defence Agreements. What more is required!? Or do you think that you cant ever have a difference of opinion in these alliances!? However, even, when there are differences of viewpoint. Why would you then want to drive a further wedge between members of the alliances you already belong to? How does that help!? Unless of course that is actually what you want to do! Manoeuvre these other countries out!
@@davidtaylor351 Canada ‘s Trudeau is a CCP admirer being raised by his Marxist father. This Trudeau campaigned to have the Chinese Army train in winter warfare on Canadian soil. He cannot, must not, be trusted. There is very good chance Canada will be sidelined from the 5 eyes arrangement. Trudeau and his cabal are a liability to western democratic values.
As for Canada joining in naval exercises, Canada has a couple of boats. That is not a navy.
@@jonnyboy2128 I cant speak about Justin Trudeau to much. As i am not Canadian. And havent followed him that closely. But i did read the idea of allowing Chinese troops to do winter training in Canada was quietly sidelined by the Canadian Army. Or at least restricted. Not sure about that. So must update myself on it!! Anyway i am not a political fan of Justin Trudeau or Jacinda Ardern. Their politics dont represent my values! Nevertheless i have learnt to check things out for myself! As there is often a difference between what a politician actually says and how others portray what they said!! Or perhaps more importantly. Between what they say, for political impact! And, what they actually do!! And although as stated, i am not a supporter of Aderns. Nevertheless, she has been misrepresented at times. And yes, there is a marxist hard left at work in our western countries. And they are a corrosive - insidiously undermining influence!!! However, although not as pervasive. There is also a rigid, and at times myopic right! For instance! The same Australian government that today is warning us about the rising threat of China! Is the same government that in 2015 allowed the lease of a strategic port in Darwin Northern Territory Australia. - To China - for 99 years! With rights of renewal!! Neither do i see how the currently faction ridden, woke saturated politically disingenuous US. Can, at least for the time being anyway! - Be seen as representing the high Beacon of Democracy for the world!! I certainly struggle with that notion!!
@@davidtaylor351 David, thanks for your excellent response. So refreshing to read a reply not tinged with blatant invective!
As an ex pat living in Canada for over 40 years I can offer an "immigrant's perspective" on the decline of Canada. Pierre Trudeau was an admirer of Marxist ideology. He put in put place a slow and inexorable decline in national living standards. He along, with successive Liberal Party grandees, believed that Central Canada ( Quebec and Ontario) should continue its dismissive attitude of the rise of Western Provincial economic power. The 1970s oil shock took Alberta to the forefront of Canadian economic activity, and indeed contribution to the broader Canadian economy. Pierre Trudeau's National Energy Plan (1981) shut the oil industry down. Families suffered, suicides skyrocketed. Being a socialist he didn't care. The current Trudeau iteration has continued his father's work to the point at which talk of separation ( or at least of a more equitable arrangement) of the Western provinces Alberta and Saskatchewan will be dismissed at Trudeau's peril.
Canada is historically a left of the historical centre country. Blessed with abundant resources, a more Scandinavian attitude than its neighbour to the south, it was a good blend of UK heritage and US enterprise. However, under successive left leaning governments it has become a paternalistic society (caring for those unwilling to care for themselves) whereas it used to be a caring society ( caring for those unable to care for themselves). Average incomes are now lower than Singapore. as an aside Trudeau attended LSE as did Lee Kwan Yew. Trudeau took all in which he had been indoctrinated and took Canada down a declining economic path. Lee Kwan Yew dismissed all in which the LSE is know for and founded Singapore. The rest is history.
Lower productivity and an expanding public sector are hallmarks of a failing industrial society. The statistical standard of living in Canada is now well below what it was when I arrived 40 years ago.
I too am not a fan of shallow personality politics, Trudeau and Ahern ( of whom I know little) are fine examples; certainly in Trudeau's case. He is documented as being bereft of intellect, ethics and morals. Who should we blame for these people coming to power? Certainly not politicians. It is in my view a consequence of the broader leftist agenda of lower education standards magnified by extreme Marxist ideology being promulgated at the University level. The intolerance of the left, rather than being called out for what it is, an agenda against freedom of speech and thought, is is now an acceptable characteristic of daily life. The UK is a fine example of this, sadly. This must change.
I can forgive voters being seduced by wild promises made by coiffured politicians, once. I cannot forgive them for voting such politicians back into power two or three times.
If China is a danger to the U.S. because it is being weakened by economic, political, cultural, and ideological failure within, surely one must argue that the U.S. must be seen as a danger to China for the same reasons. So, I reject this argument on its face. The fact is that China has explicitly territorial objectives, and the U.S. - and the rest of the West - doesn't.
@@worlddd7777 Perhaps you could point out to us which territory the U.S. wishes to occupy and rule as a territory of the United States? We already know the territories China has recently taken, and their openly declared desire for annexation of Taiwan.
Lee Kwan Yew also said that the US will not come to Taiwan’s aid….. Lew Kwan Yew will most probably be proven very very wrong in this regard.
I dont agree. I do not think it is a sure thing! In the event of a 'Chinese invasion'. Just how would the US defend Taiwan? Given the Chinese would have the primary local/geographic advantages!? Which include, much shorter supply and re-supply lines, to support their forces!! And they have the ability to saturate the area with missiles ships subs and attack aircraft! Along with assault ground forces. And would the US risk a nuclear war with China, over Taiwan? A military engagement against China is several notches up from taking on Saddam Hussein, Al qaeda and the Taliban! And even there, ultimately the US lost Afghanistan! If it comes down to it! - When faced with the reality! Would the US be prepared to accept the loss of several thousand troops. Plus ships, aircraft and military kit on a scale not seen since WW2!? - To defend Taiwan!? I have my doubts about that!!
@@davidtaylor351 you talk like the US has no assets or bases in the region.. assuming it happened China wouldn't get out unscathed.
@@chickenfishhybrid44 It isnt that the US has no assets or bases in the region. Or that China wouldn't also take some hits! It would! However China with 1.4 billion people lives! - Right next door to Taiwan! In respect of geography. The immediate tactical support, and on going strategic re-supply advantages are with China! And i have my doubts. - If it ever comes down to it! - In regard to Taiwan. That - politically the US would commit itself to the scale of military intervention required! With the potential loss of several thousand personnel! - And ships aircraft and various military resources at a level not seen since the Korean war or WW2! - Let alone the attendant risks involved with any war between nuclear powers!! And if the US was to build up forces in and around Taiwan beforehand. China would do exactly the same. With the strong possibility that such an escation would trigger the very war. "That apparently everyone" wants to avoid!! PS. There is also, increasingly closer military and naval cooperation between Russia and China, in the Pacific and elsewhere playing into the mix!!
The resemblance to Richard Burton is amazing. Is that just the welsh?
Niall Ferguson is a Scot.
That was really informative and enjoyable. I am a big fan of Niall Ferguson and his comments on Chinese self-isolation and self-aware risk is something that should be discussed more. However, I am not sure I agree with Niall's evaluation of Chinese/Soviet relations. In principle, 'don't trust Putin' makes sense.
But,.....they only need to co-operate once. China invades Taiwan and Russia invades the Ukraine in a co-ordinated effort.
NATO is splintered. Turkey/Greece division and conflict, for example. The lack of funding in the military, particularly Germany. US apathy towards the EU and their commitment to NATO. These are real issues that encourage Russian action.
Then it gets worse if China and Russia co-ordinate their moves against Taiwan and the Ukraine respectively. Imagine that? Imagine the decision making the US leadership has to conduct. The US is still the premier military power. But it cannot fight wars in both Europe and the West Pacific,...like it did in WW2.
We need to evaluate all possible courses of action. And without doubt, the Most dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA) is co-ordination by China and Russia in order to enable invasions of Taiwan and the Ukraine,...to negate NATO/US/AUKUS/QUAD response.
Over time, UK and Aus are going to really have to up defense spending and make much larger standing armies. Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore too.
Each place needs indigenous capability to sustain a conventional attack for a long period without substantial reinforcements.
The US have a backlog of Virginia Class to produce. The UK have just completed 7 Astute class. Makes sense to go with the Uk hull.
Better than diesel subs but will these boats be getting close to being obsolete by the time they get them?
John , could you put a microphone on your hand so the thumping on the table is more pronounced
Yes my grandfather always did that for emphasis, I find it nostalgic.
great
It's strange that you discuss AUKUS as if it was an American initiative. Australia approached Britain, and only then did the Brits get the Americans involved. That's not surprising. The subs the Aussies eventually end up with are likely to look a lot more like the Astute-class than the Virginia-class, simply due to a lack of submariners.
Notice, US is on the tail end of the acronym, likely for a reason.
Maybe, we will find out in 25 years?
Superb, probative, intelligent, and sobering dialogue gentlemen. I've always thought Niall Ferguson was a bit too conservative for my liking however, in this format, I have become quite comfortable with his logic though, I believe he gives far too much credit to Reagan and certainly Bush1 for the demise of Soviet communism which fell under it's own weight of corruption and inefficiency!
Unfortunately, what has evolved in its place is mega corruption on a much more efficient scale by concentrating the power in the hands of one man as the last 10 days have so proven!
One question> If the advanced US Seawolf collision came from an undersea drone with stealth capabilities, how would this change the submarine calculus? Russia is producing nuclear-powered and nuclear-tipped torpedoes which when detonated have the potential to sink US fleets and their submarines. Good presentation.
Australians look at vassalage under the CCP on the one hand, and nuclear submarines on the other, and the choice becomes a lot simpler.
Only Australians would react out of proportion when its situated furthest from China than countries having contested territorial claims that are alot more prudent. Just admit it. Australia is still hung up with its white culture and countries like China aren't compatible to the supremacist Anglo Saxons. Shilling for Uncle Sam is just one of that reasons
AUKUS has much more to the tripartite nations than some new nuclear submarines.
@@123-h5i5y All three ANZUS country’s are multiple cultural and have diverse populations: There are ethnically Han Chinese in Governments. How many Caucasians in the politburo? It is unsurprising Australia, the modern UK and the US share cultural attributes and values. Folk from all around the World seek to emigrate to these three successful countries.
@@petersinclair3997 My comment was about Australia. Well, how many minorities are there in the Australian govt? Even the only elected Asian woman MP in the govt party couldn't escape being accused as a Chinese spy.
@@123-h5i5y Indeed, all these self-righteous talking of the "learned scholars" really is sick. Their fixed point of China being the villain of all evils and the US with its West allies the all glorious democratic beacon of the world is simply beyond comprehension. This Western based biased world view simply won't be accepted here in many Asian countries. The arrogant West still consider themselves the 'superior' over others, and can not treat other non-West peope with respect and equality. Considering all the atrocities the West committed during the colonial era of several hundread years, it is astoundingly hypocracy to still procaim as the right side of this world....
Wow. While watching this, an ad (1 of 2) popped up for Alibaba. 🇨🇳
At minute 48:00 John Anderson summarizes the Chinese condition. Remember the Chinese value stability and security far more than freedom. North Korea is an example of how far the CCP can and will take things to maintain Dr. Ferguson's first Chinese Government's goal... maintain power.
Did you say waning, ECLIPSED is the word I'd choose.
10:00 in other words Trump was right on China
I get the ribbons on the uniform comment but it isn't inherently bad. During peace time you still need a way to promote officers based upon merit and meritocratic awards are the best way to do that during peace time. It only takes looking at the interwar French military to see the downside of not keeping merit based promotion active during peace time.
I fail to see any military threat from China; Austra should be smart to play down AUKUS and befriend China instead and enjoy prosperity.
Presently Oz owns six submarines and can only crew three. Given Nukes run a two crew regime, how does Oz claim it can crew eight Nukes, sixteen crews of twice the size (32)! Dreaming? Know that since 1945 Oz has had a continuing problem in staffing its armed forces. I know of no analysis that takes the vast increse necessary in submariners in an RAN that sees vessels on slipways for want of a crew, notwitstanding the need for new training/education for sailors and officers. Hot air is AUKUS?
The brits are fond of your people, just not your "democracy"
AUSUK sounds so much better!
What is the central question of Cold War II?
Let me propose, "How do we harness expertise (such as industrial policy) in the service of a free people?"
@@merlingeikie And we did that by answering the question, "How do we best distribute the mountains of goods that industrialization can produce?" with market economics.
Right now, China is proposing that the right approach to expertise is to give it dictatorial power.
If we want to remain free, we need to figure out how to take our own expertise and, as I said, harness it in the service of a free people.
Its always disappointing when people who should be able to recognize climate change is a religion don't.
Agree Ben…amazing how even some of the most promising intellectuals seem almost afraid to challenge the status quo, and forget how much climate change has occurred long before mankind walked the planet. Just an excuse from the elites to steal money from the working classes to further enrich themselves and then control them more, virtue signaling all the way to bank
Yes, the climate has changed many times in the last 2000 years. Instead of trying to control the climate, we should be utilising resources to mitigate change.
James Delingpole has done great work on showing the connection between climate / environmental groups and communism. As long ago as 1950 they recognised that the working class would not rise up whilst they were kept comfortable with affordable electricity. Even then they discussed the need for global bodies to deny people access to affordable power.
@@grannyannie6744 watermelons, green on the outside, red to the core.
@@bennichols561 Yes, a great book.
@@grannyannie6744 book?