Super Shoes - What should we expect over the next three to five years?
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- Опубліковано 14 чер 2024
- A deep dive analysis into what I expect to some for the future of road racing running shoes.
0:00 Intro
1:13 Product development variables
4:06 Weight
6:56 Geometry
7:54 Plate dynamics
8:28 Adidas Evo 1 is the start of the future
9:33 Lower stack super shoes
11:10 Nike Alphafly 3 future
12:39 Nike Streakfly 2 importance
14:45 Three year (and beyond) roadmap
17:24 Outro
Adidas Adizero Adios Pro Evo 1 Revisited • Adidas Adizero Adios P...
Where does Adidas Adizero go from here? • Where does Adidas Adiz...
The Adidas Adizero Adios Pro Evo 1 is the future of Adizero racing. • The Adidas Adizero Adi...
Disclosures: No one is paying me to make this video and no one has any editorial control over the contents of this video. Everything I cover in this video is my own opinion and experience.
All Images courtesy of Adidas, Nike, Asics, Mizuno, Puma, Hoka and New Balance.
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Instagram: / sagasurunning
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Subscriber count at time of upload: 7,404
Intro & outro music from Epidemic Sound:
The Great Divide - DEX 1200
www.epidemicsound.com/artists...
🤙🏻 - Спорт
Definitely going to check in on this one in the coming years to see what I got right and wrong! 🤙🏻
If Kevin Kiptum still here, the game will have different landscape
Likely…
Another excellent master class, professor. 👍
Ha! Thank you. Thank you. 🙏🏻
@@SagasuRunning of course
Fantastic presentation of the diagrams for the shoe designs. In depth I would say. You deserve more subscribers! Looking forward to what Adidas and Nike putting out this year and onwards! Exciting time to be runner!
Growth is happening organically and I’m happy about that. Thank you for the kind words. I fully agree, it’s an exciting time to be a runner (and talk about running shoes). 🤙🏻
The Metaspeed Edge are AMAZING! I just broke my Half Marathon PB, 1:26:52
Felt so good and natural, helping but not noticing them.
They are a great shoe. They have really grown on me…
Keep up the great work! Your educational and entertaining videos are some of the best online!
Thank you. Thank you. 🙏🏻
Just found your channel and must say, I love the clean presentation and content you provide. This is a fantastic insight into what could be coming next. Really excited to see if your predictions of lower stack super shoes with next gen foams is right. Cheers.
Thank you for the kind words. I am also interested to see if I am right or not. I'm not sure ALL super shoes will go that route, but we will have one or two players try it. My bet is on Adidas and/or On doing it first...
Interesting Review 👌
🤙🏻
Yay! Lighter weight and lower stacks! I'm excited!
Let’s see what we get over the next few years. I don’t think I’m that far off.
Very interesting analysis, I think you're on the money with the direction we're moving in. I also wouldn;t be surprised to see weight differentiated super shoes, as a shoe calibrated for a 55/60kg pro is clearly not optimised for an 75 or 85kg runner
They are going to need to do that weight range thing at some point if the foams get more and more fragile. I can see it happening for the real bleeding edge super shoes with the current foams.
The Streakfly 2 has me fascinated. As you know, I love my Streaks. My only concern is the stack height of the forefoot. I wish it was lower than noted. What's great is Nike is integrating what's it doing with track spikes (the best imho) into their competition road shoes!
We have no specs and the photo could be deceptive. But it’s somewhere between 26-30’ish. It’s going to be a very different those then the Streakfly 1.
Im just hoping that none of them break the 300 USD srp(excluding the evo 1). Some brands are already reaching the 275 and kinda makes the sport too exclusive to the ones with the means.
For a standard super shoe I think $300 USD will be the cap for a few more years. Inflation is out of control globally and the cost of everything is rising… so eventually that will be broken too. The hyper shoes/elite/Evo shoes will be much more for the time being. Eventually pricing will stabilize with the next gen models.
I do think stack heights are going to get lower. Most people don’t need this 40mm stack height in the heel. Like you mentioned, the takumi sen would be ample cushioning for for people to perform well. I think the 40mm heel stack is very overplayed at this point.
With more compressive and open cell foams, pushing PEBA to its boundaries… more stability will need to be added into super shoes. Lowering the stack height will given some of that and save weight. I do think Hoka is onto something with their plates too…
Adios Pro Evo 1 = Aston Martin Valkyrie AMR Pro (F1 Aerodynamics, Hyper Car Performance, eligible for Le Man Hypercar prototype racing, also sold for Consumers)
Very good comparison!
Hi Sagasu Running, great content !
Will we have a video for Adidas Supernova Rise after X00 miles/KMs ?
Yup… it’s coming soon.
@@SagasuRunning Wow. Really looking forward to it. Thanks !!!
I think you’re right. It’s a circle. New foam increases weight initially until manufacturers sorta “figure it out” and then weight starts going down. The question in my mind is what’s after this next phase of weight cutting? Is it an all-new compound that’s beyond PEBA, and does that reset the weight equation?
I alluded to it at the end… but I think the next gen foams may be slightly heavier but have far better energy return. Another reason I think super shoes will get a bit lower. There is only so open celled a foam can get before it stops performing. My gut says current PEBA is getting close to that.
@@SagasuRunningI think so also. Obviously tuning plays a major role, but with peba in lots of daily trainers these days, even some 100% peba like the new Triumph 22, it makes that foam seem normal. But there’s always a desire for the special, the abnormal. We even saw small pushes in that direction within current constraints in shoes like the Endorphin Elite over the Endorphin Pro or more classically, the AF over the VF. Almost every brand has two super racers at this point, it seems.
I have been watching the Streakfly 2. I like to think of it as a combination of the Nike Dragonfly and Vaporfly. Why can't we have an Alphafly and Air Zoom Victory combo?
Agree on that combo… like I said, I don’t think the Alphafly will loose some bulk in the coming years. Maybe by the AF6…
I love the Prime X 2 Strung, makes running so effortless and fun everytime (although the left shoe of my first pair was defected, the plate(s) made strange noise with each step, I felt them moving and it was lacking bounce… downside of the crazy tech… I got a new pair). Anyway I wonder if there will ever be Prime X 3 and how that will turn out.
I think Adidas will keep the Prime X program alive… they are learning a lot with it I’m sure.
I have an opportunity to grab a pair of Evo 1's with the smooth outsole for $650 CDN, but given how the Adidas heel lockdowns have been for me, and how well the AF V3 worked for me yesterday (10min marathon PB and didn't think about the shoes ONCE all day, and at 120km have ZERO wear) I'm gonna pass.
Great analysis as always!
I feel like one of the two top shoes is going to work for you better, but not both. One is high plate and the other is low plate. Makes sense.
Congrats on the PB. 🤙🏻
even Puma is developing the carbon with Mercedes AMG and Diadora with Ducati Corse
Interesting. I didn’t know about the Puma connection.
@@SagasuRunning ua-cam.com/video/SQ1WRLLNwiw/v-deo.html
I'm not worried about price hikes of the future supershoes (I worry more availability). At the local marathon event, 2K runners attending (from 5k to 42k), top of the range Nike/Adidas/Saucony/Hoka shoes (Alphafly all models, AP3, PX2S, EP3/EE, Cielos) were omnipresent. Apart from a handful of professional runners, all other were recreational ones. People want those PBs no matter what. :)
Agree. Access is frustrating right now. Nike’s lottery approach and Adidas random approach are annoying.
Is there a suspected release date on the streakfly 2
I’ve seen nothing. Knowing Nike it will likely only be random dates, in the UK and you have to win the lottery. 🤷🏼♂️
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Do you think the big brands have become more empirical since Breaking2 in actually testing whether there are metabolic / performance advantages to a new design? My sense is yes (but some designs are still driven by seasonal fashion turnover).
I have seen a lot of evidence that Nike tested the original Vaporfly and Alphafly designs with metabolic carts. Similarly I know that Saucony did metabolic testing with some of their elite runners, notably Jared Ward. It seems like similar elite testing went into iterating the Metaspeed series at ASICS.
I have a sense that this is a change from the way things were done at the shoe companies for many many years where there was little or no validation of designs but a lot of flogging of a key brand design element like “air”, gel, cloudtec, etc.
Fully. Prior to 2017 Nike was really to only company doing any of this, even then it was at a much smaller scale. Now, in 2024 I’d say all the major brands are doing it to some scale, some more than others.
There was also a lot of criticism of shoe companies from Chris McDougal and his cohort that the shoe designs were both not science-based and empirically bad in that as designs had evolved over time injury increased.
I remember with some of the Nike trainers a few years ago they started to make claims that they actually did testing (🤔) to demonstrate they reduced injuries.
The Saucony people in particular seem to be interested in Beno Nigg’s “comfort filter” and in general that comfort theory seems to have mostly replaced the never-validated orthopedic shoe theory of shoes that are intended to force a “correct” movement pattern.
Interestingly now people are starting to hypothesize that training exclusively in super shoes may allow you to hit paces in awesome workouts and recover faster but have the side effect of blunting the training stimulus and cause a training plateau effect that can be seen overall in population race results among elite and sub-elite runners. This hypothesis postulates that maybe people should do more workout training in old school flats and reserve super shoe more for races with just enough use in training to maximize the accommodation skill to the shoe as a performance aid.
I mean… I’m a big fan of Chris McDougal’s writing and a bigger fan of Eric Otron’s coaching and approach to running AND spent years in the barefoot running community… but just as Chris and co criticized modern running shoes… the same was done in reverse on barefoot shoes.
When anything in this space becomes dogmatic you need to question the underlying “why”, which usually has some marketing tint to it.
Even Eric Orton has stepped it back a little bit with “natural running” shoes and using them as a tool in your overall running toolbox.
I’ve read this too. Based on my own running I find similar things. When I spend too much time in plated shoes their “effect” wears off. I feel it in my running and see it in my data. I also start to have foot and toe issues. As soon as I incorporate a flexible shoe, even for a handful or runs per week, the foot and toe issues resolve themselves and when I do put the super shoes back on I notice a huge “fast” feeling.
This is one reason (of many) I’ve been loving the Supernova Rise. It’s a low stack, very flexible PEBA shoe… I get the benefits of foot strength and toe flexibility as well as the benefits and leg savings of PEBA. Similar to what I used to get with the Streakfly, but in a much more durable and trainer specific format. I’m even going to go as far as to say that Dreamstrike+ is a better twisting foam than ZoomX.
I have the Adidas Boost Prime (whats left of them ), and i just tried them on a few days ago ..........i would totally destroy my legs if i tried running in them now 😂. Wish/Hope Adidas brings out a more practical Evo 1 .
The AP4 has much of the Evo 1 DNA (and I think there may be a surprise in the midsole) and there has been a Evo C spotted, where the C is likely for consumer(?). Trickle down tech is coming… but Adidas will still push forward with the Hyper shoe space.
@@SagasuRunning i hope they fixed the upper 😅
The AP4 upper is very similar to the Evo 1… so yes, it seems they did!
What about the Reebok Floatride Run Fast Pro?
What about it?
@@SagasuRunningI just wondered it wasnt mentioned.
Sadly only from reviews I heard that it was exceptionally well cushioned for its 100g.
I think Reebok deserves more recognition for this shoe and should make more like them.
I always found them intriguing😊
Honestly, I had to Google it. It’s not the model I was thinking. I remember this shoe form 2018 now. It got a tiny bit of buzz but not much else. The Saucony flat is still considered one of, if not, the best of all time. I wasn’t trying to highlight every lightweight shoe, just one as a reference point for my argument. There were other sub 3.5oz for out there as well…
9:15 how so? Aren’t these shoes all made in sweat shops for pennies on the dollar?
Genuine question, how much are they losing exactly?
You also need to factor in R&D, tooling and setup costs in factories, marketing, PR etc.
@@jamesm6830 that's for one shoe process. Once you R&D, prototype, etc....Then you mass produce.
I would like actual numbers on what it cost to bring the shoe to life, and then how much they charge vs what it cost to mass produce. Given the ethical practices in the past, in regards to labor. It's not wise to just assume the big corp, and everything they sell/tell you.
I have a video where I go into what I learned on pricing for the Evo 1, at length (as well as a few other shoes for reference): Adidas Adizero Adios Pro Evo 1 Revisited ua-cam.com/video/93m7C4x8Z6s/v-deo.html
I am a big Nike fan since my basketball days and Nike shoes just seem to work better for me. I was thinking about why Nike all the sudden seems to have lose its strong stances in the running space. I think what has happened to the shoe industry is something that has happened to the automobile industry (and many others) as well. Brands are coming out with “creative” positioning offerings to the consumers thus establishing different sub-categories they can become a leader in.
If we isolate Nike and simply looking at their lineup, they offers all the different shoes that you need as a runner, elite or not. But when you look at the whole running shoe market as a whole, Nike seems to be missing in many sub-categories when compared to many other brands.
Interesting development being, the consumers are being spoilt by all these different things that has happened in the running space. It is amazing that now we have “prototype” like the EVO 1 where these shoe companies standing to push their conceptual boundaries…….for me the EVO is beyond a “hyper shoe”. It is like concept cars. The difference here being we don’t get to drive concept cars as a consumer like we get to run in them.
I agree with you that Nike offers everything you need to train and race… but they are missing some of the silhouettes that are hot right now.
I watch a video about the collapsing of the sneakerhead market recent as well. A big point was Nike is one of the most disliked brands with the lowest value in the space due to over saturation of releases and collabs. Unless it’s some rare dunks or AF1s or some top tier collab (I.e.. Travis Scott) there is little to no interest or value anymore. Additional in the fashion markets Nike is very much passé now, even dunks and AF1s are played out. Nike did this all to themselves.
As for hyper shoes… Evo 1s are definitely hyper shoes. They may not be what you want to spend on a pair but you CAN buy them. The concept car analogy is more like the dev prototypes we see elites race in that we will never ever get access too.
@@SagasuRunning I see how shoes like Prime X and Cielo X1 sits like the hyper shoes category. I understand your logic of putting EVO1 there but with regards to my automobile analogy, you don’t sell hyper cars at a loss to get feedbacks from drivers. In the hyper category of shoes, I see how companies put up their technologies and designs in a marketable package. Yes, we can buy Evo 1, but just like how you see it being a mean for Adidas to push forward with their development of future shoes……this is why we believe they are selling at a loss. Unlike concept cars where, running shoes are not bounded by regulatory issues thus they can be made available for consumers.
@willwu1688 let’s run with the car analogy then.
Think of the Evo 1 as a Ferrari F1 car. Ferrari, will sell one of their old F1 cars (10+ years old) if you are rich enough and/or high profile enough… at quite a loss or break even price as to promote Ferrari within their over rich person’s circle of influence to sell more cars.
Adidas doesn’t want to sell the Evo 1, but they are forced too due to Workd athletic regulations. If those didn’t exist they not sell them and instead continue using the Prime X platform for R&D, what I call a hyper shoe and you call a concept car. You could see these as hyper cars too, the Prime X is not sold and a loss.
A standard super shoe is like a solid GT3 car from the factory. Anyone can buy it and kit it out for track days, with enough money.
@@SagasuRunning Please understand I am taking these exchanges with upmost respect. Not merely trying to win an argument here. But I will have to respectfully disagree on the Ferrari analogy.
Ferrari offers they old F1 racers to their VIP as a form of "exclusivity" to reward them with their passion (and money spent) on the brand's heritage. These old F1 car has very little, if any, relevance to Ferrari's future technology development of cars. (Ferrari will still charge the owners lots just to get them running on track days.)
For me, the EVO 1 gives the vibe of Porsche's Mission X concept. If Porsche actually builds it, they cannot (and will not) simply sell it. As we know, Adidas has to sell the EVO 1 to fulfill the WA requirement otherwise they cannot be raced by the elites. So if it is up to Adidas, may be they don't want to even sell them.
@willwu1688 Understood. I’m enjoying the analogies.
It really depends on who you are for Ferrari to bless you with an old F1 car. 😎 The ghost of Enzo and all.
The thing is Adidas set out to build a F1 car with the Evo 1 and they did. It’s not a concept car. You can buy it, albeit rarely. McLaren f1 of old? It was about as rare….
Cost cap on super shoes!
Inflation and production cost are out of control. Nothing in the world has a cost cap anymore….
the only reason evo was made "available" to the public was to make it legal. def not to "Get feedback" they could care less about that with that type of shoe and who it is meant for. doesnt justify the price at all either way.
I’ve said that many times in all the videos I’ve done on the Evo 1. In fact I have an entire video on the actual price of the shoe. However, Adidas is getting invaluable feedback from non-elite runners in the Evo 1. Elites give one type of data and feedback, but non-elites are covering areas that even a 50-100 person test program wouldn’t get near. There is no doubt what they are learning on the Evo 1, especially around durability of all elements of the shoe, will be insanely valuable in the coming years…
You could make the best shoe with a combination of the best parts from each brand..unfortunately there is always something wrong with each model..and, as always, there's the 800lb gorilla in room..the elites are not the money makers..the real money makers are the average runners that buy the Brooks,the Hokas and Sauconys that sell for $150..I rarely see a high end shoe at races..even the really fast runners don't use high end shoes..only people using end shoes are older runners who have disposal income to waste on super shoes while the fast,younger racers use whatever they can get..it probably is cos their feet can stand the beating from cheaper shoes while the old guys want the comfortable shoes that allow them to enjoy running..still waiting for someone to come out with a "build your own " shoe brand..😊
But a lot of those cheaper shoes are more comfortable than the super shoes, especially if your form is tip top.
@@Laolu90 absolutely
I don’t know what races you’ve been to in the past 7 years… but I’d say 75% or more of runners at say races are in some type of super shoe or super trainer/performance trainer. The only people I consistently don’t see in the above shoes are older guys who probably are still thinking “cheaterfly” rocking their shoes from the early 2000s still.
The same is true for trail races I’ve been too. A lot of higher end or mid range trial shoes out there. The trail super shoes definitely starting to show up.
Even the last HS XC racing I saw a few years back was all Vaporflys (granted in was LA). The last HS and college track teams I saw out training in Seattle were all in Nike Invincibles or big soft Hokas.
Again, not sure what races you’ve been too since 2017?
Super shoes benefit everyone, full stop. You should train in basic shoes too, but racing in a super shoe is no problem. Regardless of age you benefit.
As for custom shoes… this is the idea everyone has had forever but beyond cosmetics it’s a long ways off. It doesn’t scale financially and the tech to produce it is spotty at best. Some companies have tried it but they never succeed. Nike’s “by you” program is about as close as you’ll see to this for a long time… like how you can swap old uppers or waffle outsoles onto a Vaporfly…. Everything else is just pointless cosmetics, but that is who buys custom shoes anyway.
@@SagasuRunning I guess if you live in or near the major cities or on either coast you probably will see more super shoes..same for Japanese races..anywhere people have an excess of disposal income they can spend it on top end shoes..to my knowledge there is no running shoe in the northern 2/3 of our state that carries any high end shoes..you can order them on line or go to the bigger cities and try them or buy them..where I race the average families do not have that kind of money to waste on shoes..or it's not a priority for them..either way it is what it is..we have Olympian runners and some of the top runners in America but they don't get their shoes locally..either way I enjoy seeing is coming thru the pipeline for future shoes..always interesting and see the trends..
I mean I grew up in rural upstate NY, literally in a forest on a dirt road. My mother sends me articles about local races “because shoe knows I like running” and all I see is vaproflys and Hokas in the photos. I’m not sure what state you are in but central NY is a very economically depressed area. I’m actually curious on your perspective here because I’ve seen nothing but the complete opposite since 2017.
I find it distasteful that you downplay the Chinese brands. The commentary almost suggests that they are incapable of making a competitive shoe. The bigger issue and probably the reason why nobody knows about their brands, is that they don't have a history and therefore any provenance to their brands - meanwhile Adidas, Nike and other western brands call upon (Mostly east africans ironically) to make their products look amazing. All this talk about Adidas Pro Evo 1 (I own this shoe btw) being the hyper shoe and yet, on adidas' best athletes, they couldn't muster up a WR in the mens' marathon. I think that does point to athletes making the bigger difference. In a few years, China will (like a lot of other things) get better at exporting their culture, and it will be more common to see top athletes wearing Chinese brands. Kenenisa Bekele is already doing a terrific job with Anta, but I bet there will be plenty of upcoming unknown beasts to sport brands such as Li-Ning etc. Many of the lesser known podiums are already full of these Chinese brands.
I’m actually very interested in the Chinese brands. However, they don’t exist here in Taiwan and the ones you can find (on Shopee) are 90% fakes.
The ultra lightweight protos the Chinese brands are promoting are complete I know quantities, even in China. They only exist on the internet. They could be the lightest shoe in the world but if they don’t run well, so what.
Each of the major Chinese brands make some strong shoes, but the prototypes they promote are total vapor ware.
Chinese brands have a LONG road uphill in the West. It will be many years before they make any real impact in sales, if ever.
Currently in the US they have a few big name basketball players but barely make a dent in sales.
In parts of Asia they will dominate, already are in some places. They will go after more Elite athletes too and do well there too.
I’m curious how the brands evolve in the coming years but they have a ways to go.
He’s simply speaking facts don’t try to turn everything into a race war! Thats the problem with todays society everyone is all in their feelings someone speaks the truth automatically they are being in sensitive
@@rikkireed242 I'm not the one discriminating products based on what ethnicity made them lol
As a Chinese consumer interested in local brands of supershoes, I would turn to platforms like Bilibili for a wide array of related content. It's undeniable that Chinese brands have improved significantly in recent years. However, their sales volumes remain relatively small, and most people worldwide may not even be aware of these brands or have the opportunity to purchase their shoes. Therefore, it's challenging to form an opinion on these supershoes without having tried them, which may not resonate with his intended audience.
Regrettably, Xtep's recent actions at the Beijing half marathon have overshadowed the progress of Chinese shoe brands. While Kenenisa Bekele's performance with the Anta prototype was commendable, it's worth noting that he is endorsed by Anta, if you give him Pro Evo 1 he might already won that event. You also can't deny that all these Chinese brands are imitating what the Pro Evo 1 did with their latest topline models, facts speaked for itself. The shoes geometry specifically designed for Asian might not even goes well with most western runners.
@@ElmerLinneither is he? He clearly explained that the prototypes don’t really exist outside of China and they’re not a nation that does a lot of media or reviews online for us to understand how the shoes perform. The shoes aren’t available outside of China for purchase. I don’t see how that’s discriminating? A shoe may sound good or look good on paper, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. This is coming from someone (me) who was sponsored by 361° for 3 years 😂 there were plenty of shoes that Europe and China both got that the US athletes couldn’t get. Their current super shoe, the furious future 1.5, isn’t even available in my US size 12