Why did SBP not reduce rates? | Saudi investment in Pak | Budget and IMF | Khurram Husain | Ep 196
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- Опубліковано 3 чер 2024
- In this episode, Uzair talks to Khurram Husain about the latest decision by the central bank to keep rates unchanged. We talked about why the central bank has a credibility problem and how the IMF is influencing its choices. We also discussed the ongoing conversations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, why it feels different this time around, and the role of geopolitics.
Finally, we also discussed the upcoming budget, the finance minister’s priorities, and how he can secure his position in the cabinet.
Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
2:00 Interest rates and the IMF
16:20 Saudi Arabia’s interest in Pakistan
24:45 Role of geopolitics in Saudi conversations
32:18 Budget and reforms outlook
39:05 How long will the finance minister last?
Plz do it in Urdu so people will be benefited and get learned with top level discussion .
One or two meeting with saudi prince and pak economist forecasting ROBUST GROWTH in economy
Good one, Uzair! Fingers crossed 🤞
what would be the inflation rate when base rate comes down in june?
33:54 Why these politicians don’t understand that nothing is private in the end. Govt taxes all profits.
A 35-50% tax on profits is a 35-50% partnership anyways. Without the headache of running an organization. And the organization still has to follow the laws of the land anyways.
Brilliant
What happened to the Nazuk Mor?
Amber Zaidi has better things to do. That's what happened.
اسلام علیکم ،
آپ سے درخواست ہے کہ آپ یہ پوڈکاسٹ اردو میں کیا کریں ۔
شکریہ
Man plz do it in Urdu so more people can understand the pearls of wisdom ❤
Uzair is a big fan of Pakistan being the "providers" of the east west road way/RAAS. Question: If we think road as a service RAAS(going the SAAS/PAAS/IAAS way) and given that even the roads in Pakistan are built and sponsored by the Chinese, will this be sustainable? Asking because any country or any entity should aim to sell its best services if the entity owns it. Will PAK understand the commitment involved in signing up to IMEC. Second given the Chinese (brothers) involvement in Pak in their RAAS, how will Indians and Americans embrace PAKs (or will PAK let go of the Chinese and jump to the IMEC/American camp or it does not matter and everyone start working for betterment of 'humanity')
There is Humanity and there is the cult of Islamic hordes. Don't mix them up or use them interchangeably pls.
This week the farmers protest was by far the most significant thing happening in Pakistan
Not sure if this is the right place to do it but please do invite Dr Nadeem Ul Haq (VC PIDE) to your show sometime
look in comparison how the FED in US is maintaining the interest rates.
Despite the lowering of inflation.
Do you think our country requires some level of stability in the reduction of the inflation trend?
This is the 1st month (month and not even a quarter) that Pakistan has resulted in a lower inflation trend than expected.
We might need at least another 2-3 months of stable lowering of inflation before we begin of lowering of KIBOR rates?
Looking for a response from your team
This is a good episode. Khurram makes a lot of sense. There’s really something brewing with Saudi-Pakistan relationship and also the decision of not lowering the rates is surprising. I say, be cautious with Saudis. Sure, it’s good to get FDI but Pakistan seems like it places all its eggs in either Saudi or UAE basket which is a bad thing. Why don’t they make reforms, policy changes and encourage the investment from Pakistanis? All the government needs to do is create the right environment and show people that they’re serious about it.
pakistan dont need pkr stock market is one of the best performing stock market they need dollars because they have a huge middle class importing foriegn stuffs and as a signatory of wto they cannot ban imports so they need dollars
One great thing Muhammad Aurangzeb could've done was to address the nation for one long hour on live TV, telling everyone what went wrong with the economy and what we needed to do to fix it. That would've been an unprecedented and exemplary step.
Lack of clear communication between the ruling circles and public is a serious problem, and the address would've bridged that gap significantly.
But those, because of whom your things went wrong will send Kaali Vigo's within minutes to pick up Aurangzeb. Phir Mohsin Naqvi Interior aur PCB ke saath Finance Ministry bhi chalayega pakistan ki.
No matter how educated i am surprised how these chaps cant help being hypocritic. Alwats treat begging as geopolitical strategy.
If external debts are as low as 20% of GDP of Pakistan against UK, USA, Japan's more than 100%. It's not begging. The only hypocrite here is you who can't critise west for taking loans but can say everything you like for Pakistan
The only problem with your argument is that the west actually brings about most, if not all, the innovation in the world in pretty much every single area of scientific and economic enterprise besides actually making things. For such countries, a high debt % to GDP is always par for the course since the world is almost totally dependent on them for supply. As opposed to this, what does Pakistan bring to the table for it to have such a high debt to GDP ratio?
@@appukuttanj how high is it, that's the queston. It's only 26%
@@faisalarif3461 Are you sure? Think you are discounting the domestic debt pile. What do you expect, that all that frenzied money printing will not come calling one day? Also, with what exports today do you counter balance such a debt ratio? Exports are only falling year on year, right? Even the textiles picture was sh*t last FY.
@@appukuttanj domestic debt of Pakistan is 46% of GDP. Pakistan suffered in FY23/24 only because of higher debt servicing due to higher interest rate at 22%. Historically debt servicing is in range of 20-30% of budget in Pakistan. Currently Pakistan pays 5.6 trillion rupees in debt servicing against its revenue of 9.4 trillion. Interest rates in Pakistan have turned positive as inflation has come down to 14%. Central bank would aggressively cut rates, each % point saves Pakistan 300B rs. and same goes for exports, exports of Pakistan grew 30% per annum but had remained stagnant due to higher interest rates which largely affects the LSM industry and its production. Exports have rebound now and investor are confident
You discuss IMF tranches, selling off PIA, but barely touch circular debt!
They did talk about selling off the discoms. Not much forward traction on the ground on that subject. Hence nothing much to talk about.
It’s such a pleasure to hear Khurram Hussain & uzair … the Sanskrit adage “kings are respected in their land scholars are respected the world over” suits you two well .. take a bow sirs 🙇🏻♂️🙂
True. Its good to be challenged by quality folks.
What.. seriously?? Is reading analysis??
Saudi Arabia should ask china to allow nsg membership of india
@ 11.00 onwards , khurRAM confessing that he don't know how relation between Interest rate and inflation works in pakistan economics.
It says lot about pakistan economy, inflation and interest rate always go in one direction otherwise negative inflation is more dangerous.
So pakistan going through against the law of economics , reason being BLACK ECONOMY.
@27:00 Pakistan has no role to play in IMEC corridor. Its armed forces do not have the strength to blockade cargo heading from west coast of India to Middle East.
UAE has invested in Kashmir and so is leaning on Pakistan to stop sending terrorists there. To imply that Pakistan can somehow sabotage IMEC is to give far more credit to Pakistan’s soft and hard power than is merited by facts on the ground. Poor analysis.
If the houthis can do it, Pakistan certainly can. Also, Pak will have Chinese support to do it, and I don't just mean diplomatic support.
You don't need to blockade, just need tp disrupt.
main question is what Pakistan has to offer for IMEC??
22:30 One more dose of steroids!😢
Hi Uzair, I'm From India
Please Schedule a Q&A with Viewers
For what??
@@taneemtaha4230 I have questions on
1. How Pakistan will Pay back the Debt that it has taken.
2. How will Pakistan Raise its Forex Reserves
3. How will Pakistan Defend Western Territory from Afghan Claims till Attock
4. How will Pakistan combat TTP, TJP, BLA etc.
5. How will Paksitan Bring Investment and FDI
6. What Will Pakistan do to Ensure Investors stay Protected
And Many More Questions
@@MysticSage-hg3jh dude ... Why r u expecting him to answer anything.. HV u ever heard him criticise the real power holder in Pak?? THEY hold all the solutions to the problems of pak.. don't U think so..
@@taneemtaha4230 The West has Grabbed the Jarnails by the Ballz.
Because Jarnails have Properties Worth Billions in Western Countries and they don't want to give up that Luxury, they keep listening to the West.
So its a choice that they have made
Indian Politicians are also corrupt but they are not like your Army.
Your Army doesn't even consider 250 Million Paksitanis as Humans.
Rate should typically be higher than inflation.
Pak has kept it lower for more than a year now probably citing core inflation rather than headline. Few 100bps higher than headline sounds like where it should be.
Also, the exchange rate is completely manipulated. Even a net purchase of 4.5 bn USD from the market didn't move it. This is unimaginable for a PKR size market.
IMF is clearly acting on the basis of international politics rather than on sound economic and market principles.
No offence but I assume your audience is mostly Urdu speaking , very informative talk but unfortunately ( translation from Urdu to English) have some shortcomings.
Whats the point of conversing in english if you are discussing pakistan's economy. Your content wont make any different until you try to connect with masses.
Is it a rocket science I am explaining?
یہ گفتگو آپ اردو میں بھی کر سکتے ہیں۔
گورے آپ کی باتیں سنتے نہیں ہیں تو پھر کن لوگوں کے لیے آپ یہ پروگرام انگلش زبان میں کر رہے ہیں؟
پاکستان میں پانچ فیصد سے بھی کم لوگ انگلش زبان سمجھتے ہیں تو کیا آپ کا یہ پروگرام پاکستان کی انگلش اشرافیہ کے لیے ہے؟
People who don't speak English in Pakistan they have never heard anything other than propaganda of the state and religion in their entire life
So they don't have a healthy mindset to understand it