I love how detailed you are on this channel. It's refreshing after so much clickbait nonsense. I figured this year would be a weaker one for them but investors shouldn't get all worked up. They literally have a new system, a second Mario movie and a bunch of games coming in the next two years. It's just a few quarter downtime while they build up again.
The Switch's utter momentum and performance in its 7th year on the market, without price drops, things like nintendo selects and in what ostensibly is a lull quarter without holiday sales continues to wow me. By its 6th year on the market the PS2 had received a 170 dollar price cut from its initial launch price, in Japan it cost 16k yen, which was less than half of its starting price of 40k yen and it was selling significantly less.
Yeah now that you mention it, it is kinda insane we haven’t even seen any Nintendo selects or anything like that, doesn’t help people still pay full price for games. Nintendo has been crushing the competition with doing their own brand instead of competing with Sony and Microsoft they have no reason to lower the prices if people keep buying. People are constantly talking about the switch being at the end of its life cycle but I personally don’t see the momentum really falling off, they just dropped a great Mario party game and Mario and Luigi rpg sequel is 2 days away. To add onto this comment even the WII which crushed in sales even had a drop in momentum and Nintendo selects by the end of its life cycle
@@legoman2313The Wii had very impressive sales, but it saw a rather sharp drop after the "gimmick" of it ran out. And it just didn't have enough for the hardcore audience to justify a purchase instead of buying a PS3 or Xbox 360.
Is it quite a bit of a downer to hear if Nintendo is not too keen of releasing direct sequels because they may sell less than the original game. Majora's Mask and Super Mario Galaxy 2 may have not been sales juggernauts but they are some of the most beloved titles in the franchise.
I think it’s quite interesting that they have essentially doubled down on their pretty lofty sales forecasts, they don’t seem to have any more heavy hitters in the fiscal year…
Is weird that they don't show anything about the switch 2 given they have too low consoles sales. I think (hope) they'll announce it next year and not right now
Love your stuff man! This video has some really bizarre audio glitches that make your inflection points weird, it’s almost like you cut pauses too short making the beginning and ends of words sound cut off. It makes it hard to get your point across properly. Thanks and I hope this helps make future videos better!
Appreciate the feedback. I've been having real problems with my microphone just lately. I rerecorded or edited round the most glaring stuff but there's obviously some bits that slipped through.
I found the revised hardware number from bullish 13.5 million number in May to even more bullish 12.5M now very surprising. The slide shows they sold 4.73M in the first two quarters, meaning 7.77M to go. Assuming they do the same 1.96M they did last Q4, that means the Q3 holiday quarter needs 5.81M sales. Or, if Q4 drops 11.6% year over year like Q2 did, that means Q3 has to make 6.02M sales. (And likely to drop at least 15%.) Six million sales this Q3 seems exceptionally unlikely with no Pokemon game for 2024, a rather weak lineup for the year (though Jamboree and Echoes of Wisdom show promise), no permanent price drop (though perhaps a brief two-week drop in late November), and only Wonder bundled with system as opposed to a choice of Wonder and other appealing games (like Odyssey, Kart, ACNC, etc.) I really don't see six million sales this holiday - that's only a 13% drop year over year, despite a far stronger game lineup in 2023. 15-20% drop seems more likely, meaning they'll be hitting the fiscal year finishing line in the 11-11.5 million range, well short of 12.5.
I also think there will be another cheaper Switch 1 iteration, I think it’s also possible the OLED is discontinued after the Switch 2 is announced, Switch 2 will take the place of the “higher end” device.
But most of the systems were built with older cheaper parts that cost less to get now and the yen is strengthening so this systems were built with a weaker yen and therefore what they lose in console sales they r making up on the back end in large amounts with not cutting prices. They probably truly expect to sell less but gross similar profits
Yeah sorry about that - I've been having problems with my microphone (or I'm now suspecting my computer). I've tried to edit around it or redo as much as possible.
Don't have those numbers to hand (and I'm not sure if they've ever been discretely shared). The sales of special editions might be interesting to look into though.
Maybe they should drop the price of the current Switch in order to reach that sales target. Unless they’re scared the successor may not be successful and they can fall back on the current Switch?
Obviously not. You think they’d be announcing their next console on the DAY of the US election, which might lead to the re election of the orange devil and the start of ww3?
Honestly I would love a remix title of the “New” Super Mario Bros 1, 2, and Wii. Like just having select stages from each of those games and having recreations of some of the mini games from the DS version.
@hunterkeps9058 All, good. I was just trying to talk about that one time the Switch 2 was announced in a tweet during the investor's meeting. So I was trying to say something like that. Thx for the correction though.
12:48 tbh origami king is in it's presentation just better. Maybe the gameplay is more beloved by longtime fans but I personally had much more fun with OK. So there is not an obvious thing that makes one better than the other. (Please don't hit me🥺).
TTYD remake outselling the remake is good but it didn’t outsell Origami King. Which means the Origami King style may be here to stay which isn’t bad Origami King was pretty good. As for Luigi’s Mansion 2 not selling well that proves the game is mid and nobody likes the style it has meaning we’ll get more games like 1 and 3. Echoes of Wisdom did pretty good which I’m glad to see it did better then Princess Peach Showtime.
TOK was a new game in the pandemic; TTYD is a remake, second-on-a-console, late into the Switch's life. It was never gonna beat TOK. Hopefully Nintendo is willing to at least be a little more daring with the characters and story like in TTYD, while keeping the stronger level/world design that TOK had.
Still Nintendo is going to look at the sales and be like “Ok people clearly like modern paper Mario more let’s make more of those” at least Mario rpg remake sold over 3.5 million so maybe we’ll get more Mario RPGs like that.
I’m not sure Nintendo thinks so clearly-cut like that. There are always many things at play in terms of sales numbers. Sales are good for gauging interest but not the ultimatum. Just because TOK sold more than TTYD doesn’t mean Nintendo is going all in on Origami King. If this was the case, they would’ve kept Super Paper Mario’s story and gameplay as it’s the best-selling PM title. Nintendo knows why TTYD sold less, and even pointed out it sold well in Q1. As a huge fan, I understand others disappointment in its sales. I too was honestly hoping it would sell at least 10 million. This is probably a lesson for Nintendo that good word of mouth can only bring you so far. Still, according to Nintendo themselves it still did fine.
@@LuigiMaster4don’t be a fool These are ever green titles so their sales are gonna keep going up overtime also don’t be so quick to judge it’s not even holiday yet Black Friday and Christmas and all that So maybe let’s not make any ignorant rash assumptions Also Luigi’s mansion 2 isn’t bad because everyone loved it on 3ds so maybe u should give it some time Also princess peach showtime was really good
Where are all these Paper Mario fans? They never shut up about TTYD. Even I bought it and I'm not the bigegst fan I guess they didn't want traditional Paper Mario enough. On another note I hope they drop that Playtest MMO randomly, it looks fun and mostly finished. No it won't be an old IP on top LMAO
Yesterday I was really tempted to put out a 10 second video where the thumbnail/title and content would both be, "There *probably* won't be any significant Switch 2 news at the investors' meeting. That's it. That's the video." Decided against cos I thought it would come across snarky. Now I wonder if I should have!
@@nintendoforecast honestly you should’ve, even Nintendo warns when they’re having a direct or news that they won’t be talking about the switch 2 lol. It’s just that right now that’s the only thing the community cares about
There r forty channels to tell you this is the week I come here for actual info you should've walked away learning lots about Nintendo maybe he should do click bait names
Correction paper Mario the origami king sold 2.2 million in its opening weekend, it sold more over the entire quarter
Yes, beg your pardon, it was 2.82.
@@nintendoforecast still a very good video as always, good job
i hope nintendo doesn't interpret this as evidence people dont like RPG mechanics
@@pigeon_officialthey are aware of the circumstances leading to TOK’s higher sales, I don’t think they’ll take it that way.
@@pigeon_official some people prefer modern over rpg, and casual seems to like new ideas than turn based rpg
I love how detailed you are on this channel. It's refreshing after so much clickbait nonsense. I figured this year would be a weaker one for them but investors shouldn't get all worked up. They literally have a new system, a second Mario movie and a bunch of games coming in the next two years. It's just a few quarter downtime while they build up again.
The Switch's utter momentum and performance in its 7th year on the market, without price drops, things like nintendo selects and in what ostensibly is a lull quarter without holiday sales continues to wow me. By its 6th year on the market the PS2 had received a 170 dollar price cut from its initial launch price, in Japan it cost 16k yen, which was less than half of its starting price of 40k yen and it was selling significantly less.
Yeah now that you mention it, it is kinda insane we haven’t even seen any Nintendo selects or anything like that, doesn’t help people still pay full price for games. Nintendo has been crushing the competition with doing their own brand instead of competing with Sony and Microsoft they have no reason to lower the prices if people keep buying. People are constantly talking about the switch being at the end of its life cycle but I personally don’t see the momentum really falling off, they just dropped a great Mario party game and Mario and Luigi rpg sequel is 2 days away. To add onto this comment even the WII which crushed in sales even had a drop in momentum and Nintendo selects by the end of its life cycle
@@legoman2313The Wii had very impressive sales, but it saw a rather sharp drop after the "gimmick" of it ran out. And it just didn't have enough for the hardcore audience to justify a purchase instead of buying a PS3 or Xbox 360.
Is it quite a bit of a downer to hear if Nintendo is not too keen of releasing direct sequels because they may sell less than the original game. Majora's Mask and Super Mario Galaxy 2 may have not been sales juggernauts but they are some of the most beloved titles in the franchise.
To be fair, most of the time their games don’t leave people thirsting for more, they’re usually satisfying enough.
Great video. This channel is severely UNDERRATED.
I think it’s quite interesting that they have essentially doubled down on their pretty lofty sales forecasts, they don’t seem to have any more heavy hitters in the fiscal year…
Is weird that they don't show anything about the switch 2 given they have too low consoles sales. I think (hope) they'll announce it next year and not right now
Now that they released a 60 slides briefing presentation, I am fully expecting a 3 hour Nintendo Forecast video
~42 mins
@@nintendoforecast already excited for it!
Thank you so much for the video! It's super great ❤
Love your stuff man! This video has some really bizarre audio glitches that make your inflection points weird, it’s almost like you cut pauses too short making the beginning and ends of words sound cut off. It makes it hard to get your point across properly. Thanks and I hope this helps make future videos better!
Appreciate the feedback. I've been having real problems with my microphone just lately. I rerecorded or edited round the most glaring stuff but there's obviously some bits that slipped through.
I found the revised hardware number from bullish 13.5 million number in May to even more bullish 12.5M now very surprising. The slide shows they sold 4.73M in the first two quarters, meaning 7.77M to go. Assuming they do the same 1.96M they did last Q4, that means the Q3 holiday quarter needs 5.81M sales. Or, if Q4 drops 11.6% year over year like Q2 did, that means Q3 has to make 6.02M sales. (And likely to drop at least 15%.) Six million sales this Q3 seems exceptionally unlikely with no Pokemon game for 2024, a rather weak lineup for the year (though Jamboree and Echoes of Wisdom show promise), no permanent price drop (though perhaps a brief two-week drop in late November), and only Wonder bundled with system as opposed to a choice of Wonder and other appealing games (like Odyssey, Kart, ACNC, etc.) I really don't see six million sales this holiday - that's only a 13% drop year over year, despite a far stronger game lineup in 2023. 15-20% drop seems more likely, meaning they'll be hitting the fiscal year finishing line in the 11-11.5 million range, well short of 12.5.
I also think there will be another cheaper Switch 1 iteration, I think it’s also possible the OLED is discontinued after the Switch 2 is announced, Switch 2 will take the place of the “higher end” device.
Bro Mario Kart 8 keeps selling so much copys wtf
i thought they shut down the wii u eshop?
34% decline is very steep.
But most of the systems were built with older cheaper parts that cost less to get now and the yen is strengthening so this systems were built with a weaker yen and therefore what they lose in console sales they r making up on the back end in large amounts with not cutting prices. They probably truly expect to sell less but gross similar profits
Some words seem weirdly chopped up. Interesting video anyway
Yeah sorry about that - I've been having problems with my microphone (or I'm now suspecting my computer). I've tried to edit around it or redo as much as possible.
@@nintendoforecast Alright it's ok thank you
NF, how did the Timmy and Tommy aloha switch lite edition sell?
Don't have those numbers to hand (and I'm not sure if they've ever been discretely shared). The sales of special editions might be interesting to look into though.
Maybe they should drop the price of the current Switch in order to reach that sales target. Unless they’re scared the successor may not be successful and they can fall back on the current Switch?
Certainly possible. Although it could be a pyrrhic victory if they hit the target but dent their profits in doing so.
i can see sales skyrocketing if they did nintendo selects with significant price cuts, which is a no-brainer for old games
Such an interesting video
Anything on switch 2 ?
Obviously not. You think they’d be announcing their next console on the DAY of the US election, which might lead to the re election of the orange devil and the start of ww3?
No, the report is retrospective. There may be a reference in the Q&A although the early reports suggest not.
There is something, just a reconfirmation that Switch 2 will be announced this fiscal year. Maybe we’ll get more info at the Q&A
Wrong channel
I guess I've gotten so used to your voice that i never got to ask: what kind of accent is that? Im not sure ive heard another person with it
Southern England. Not sure why it would be unusual -hard to analyse your own accent!
This was a funny question!
I don’t really think they’ll port over the “new” Mario games. Packing them all together just reveals how similar they are.
I think they are gonna do only Wii because the others would requiere more effort lol 😅
Honestly I would love a remix title of the “New” Super Mario Bros 1, 2, and Wii. Like just having select stages from each of those games and having recreations of some of the mini games from the DS version.
Me when I see no Switch 2 mention in the Investors Meeting 😢😢😢
Investors meetings don't generally cover new announcements. Maybe we'll hear something in the Q&A but it's doubtful
@hunterkeps9058 All, good. I was just trying to talk about that one time the Switch 2 was announced in a tweet during the investor's meeting. So I was trying to say something like that. Thx for the correction though.
12:48 tbh origami king is in it's presentation just better. Maybe the gameplay is more beloved by longtime fans but I personally had much more fun with OK. So there is not an obvious thing that makes one better than the other. (Please don't hit me🥺).
I loved Origami King and personally think it is better than Super Paper Mario and the other 2010s Paper Mario games.
I'm new to Mario RPGs started with Mario and Luigi on GBA now doing paper Mario 64 and Mario RPG on SNES but paper Mario 64 is awesome
@@danc.1908 If you think Paper Mario 64 is awesome, then you should also like TTYD. It is essentially PM64 on steroids.
TTYD remake outselling the remake is good but it didn’t outsell Origami King. Which means the Origami King style may be here to stay which isn’t bad Origami King was pretty good. As for Luigi’s Mansion 2 not selling well that proves the game is mid and nobody likes the style it has meaning we’ll get more games like 1 and 3. Echoes of Wisdom did pretty good which I’m glad to see it did better then Princess Peach Showtime.
TOK was a new game in the pandemic; TTYD is a remake, second-on-a-console, late into the Switch's life. It was never gonna beat TOK. Hopefully Nintendo is willing to at least be a little more daring with the characters and story like in TTYD, while keeping the stronger level/world design that TOK had.
Still Nintendo is going to look at the sales and be like “Ok people clearly like modern paper Mario more let’s make more of those” at least Mario rpg remake sold over 3.5 million so maybe we’ll get more Mario RPGs like that.
I’m not sure Nintendo thinks so clearly-cut like that. There are always many things at play in terms of sales numbers. Sales are good for gauging interest but not the ultimatum. Just because TOK sold more than TTYD doesn’t mean Nintendo is going all in on Origami King. If this was the case, they would’ve kept Super Paper Mario’s story and gameplay as it’s the best-selling PM title.
Nintendo knows why TTYD sold less, and even pointed out it sold well in Q1. As a huge fan, I understand others disappointment in its sales. I too was honestly hoping it would sell at least 10 million. This is probably a lesson for Nintendo that good word of mouth can only bring you so far. Still, according to Nintendo themselves it still did fine.
@@LuigiMaster4don’t be a fool
These are ever green titles so their sales are gonna keep going up overtime also don’t be so quick to judge it’s not even holiday yet
Black Friday and Christmas and all that
So maybe let’s not make any ignorant rash assumptions
Also Luigi’s mansion 2 isn’t bad because everyone loved it on 3ds so maybe u should give it some time
Also princess peach showtime was really good
@@LuigiMaster4bro doesn’t understand how evergreen works
Where is Switch 2 clowns?
Where are all these Paper Mario fans? They never shut up about TTYD. Even I bought it and I'm not the bigegst fan I guess they didn't want traditional Paper Mario enough. On another note I hope they drop that Playtest MMO randomly, it looks fun and mostly finished. No it won't be an old IP on top LMAO
loud minorities
Nintendo want ESG money, disgusting....
AI voice ?
Nope.
darn... i was hoping they would go bankrupt...
Look at tessla for that
No new news on Switch 2. LAME.
wrong channel
@callmean0n989 No it's not. That was part of the same investor's meeting.
your behavior is still LAME
@@callmean0n989 Nah.
I watched this whole video in hopes of learning something new about the Switch 2 and I came out learning absolutely nothing 😢
He never stated previously that switch 2 would be mentioned, so that's kinda on you
Yesterday I was really tempted to put out a 10 second video where the thumbnail/title and content would both be, "There *probably* won't be any significant Switch 2 news at the investors' meeting. That's it. That's the video." Decided against cos I thought it would come across snarky. Now I wonder if I should have!
@@nintendoforecast honestly you should’ve, even Nintendo warns when they’re having a direct or news that they won’t be talking about the switch 2 lol. It’s just that right now that’s the only thing the community cares about
LordMuzhy
Maybe you shouldve re-read Nintendo President last X/Tweeter message.
It was concise, brief and easily comprehensible.
There r forty channels to tell you this is the week I come here for actual info you should've walked away learning lots about Nintendo maybe he should do click bait names