Why the Perfect Speedrun of Punch Out Will Never Happen
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- Опубліковано 25 жов 2022
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You sometimes forget that the famous speed running documentarian, Summoning Salt, is also a speedrunner himself.
"Then two weeks later, a runner by the name of me got this time..."
Yep. He’s been a Punch Out speedrunner for many years and has held records in many of the game’s categories.
@@Caddynars he also never mentions himself, which is super humble of him
He’s a speed-running documentary channel, he’s literally the king of losers.
@@HarambaeXelonmuskfans someone who gets a bag + is revered by a massive community what a loser
For those that don't know, the Mr. Sandman TAS has been tied by Summoning Salt!
Really?
@@seanmaguire548 Yep!
check out his Alt, named Summoning Alt. Should be a vid of 2:16.48 Sandman!
yooo awesome
not gonna do cringe likes edit so instead imma do cringe likes reply but how does this have 350 likes-?
Mac’s face when he lands a star punch in this game is hilarious to me for some reason. It looks like he’s upset to be dealing big damage.
In my opinion, it looks like Little Mac is grunting when he uses it
I thought he was looking at Doc Louis to see if he is proud of Mac using his signature punch
I got the impression that he put so much power into it that it's painful to him.
His face always reminds me of the hardcover comic book way back when, because I'd never seen the game played and he landed a star punch at the end.
GAY THEORY: HE IS A SOULESS SOCIOPATH AND WANTS TO HIT HIS OPPONENT MORE, SO WHEN HE KNOCKS THEM DOWN WITH LESS STRIKES TO THE FACE HE FEELS EMPTY INSIDE.
27:52 - "the odds for the fight aren't too bad, at about 1 in 114"
This really set the tone for the rest of the video LMAO
And piston Honda’s 1 attack in one part was 1 in 114
Edit: it’s at 1:00:06
honestly tho thats same as it is queueing any competitive online game
I mean yeah, that odds of that aren't that bad
For something that has yet to be achieved by humans 1 in 114 is indeed really good odds.
Gacha players: "I like those odds."
Not a single thing in this video will benefit me in any way in life. I absolutely loved the whole thing.
Learning is a benefit in itself, and I still know what you mean. Who knows you may make a friend because of some random info you remember from this video!
Having fun is a benefit isnt it?
@@Maxawa0851 I feel like the whole comment went over your head. I loved the video. Yes it was entertaining, which is why I loved the video, even though it will not benefit me in any other way beyond just sitting and enjoying the video. Which is high praise for a video, and how he delivers the content.
@@ZykoMike yeah i know it was a compliment, but I mean that I'd consider fun itself to be a benefit
@@ZykoMike sound like a kid
For reference, the odds of getting the perfect speedrun would mean that you have to play perfectly, hitting hundreds of inputs which already brush against the limits of human ability, while also selecting one randomly chosen atom from within **the entire solar system**
Obviously a skill issue.
Clearly a lack of human determination
They are just bad ngl
So you're telling me there's a chance
That's like a 1 in 3 shot at that point
Fun fact: if you're a top level punch out player there's a good chance you're also good at making interesting videos.
Reminds me of Wirtual. Really good and knowledgeable about Trackmania where his video's are so amusing to look at even tho I don't even play that game all that much
Wild how the chance of any given punch out speedrunner making a series of speedrunning documentaries is higher than many of the probabilities featured in the video
That's true for a lot of games it seems lol. Karl Jobst, Kosmic, MitchFlowerPower, Goose, I can think of off the top of my head.
Don Flamango RNG: "We have you 32,768 to 1!" Little Mac: "I like those odds"
Mac: “These odds be one of me favorites Don”
Little Mac has his opponent throw the fight because of a gambling and substance abuse problem he has after just finding out he got his sister-in-law pregnant. It's actually a really dark storyline for a kid's video game.
@@mikemurphy5898 Proof?
I’m surprised that animation team for this Nintendo classic was able implement “stance” into the game. By using the slight variations of timing, they were able to show how Mac is using a right handed stance. Very cool!
NES development in general was crazy when you realize just how weak the NES is
@@kingkrispy5289 Honestly most of the maths here is well within the power of the NES, it is nowhere near complex enough to be a struggle for even a simple computer. Not to say it is easy to make that, I imagine the NES was programmed using a language that spoke directly with the hardware and was not abstracted, something like assembly, so it would be quite difficult to code, but computers are really good at maths.
Most of what the NES struggled with is scale, there simply was not much space for graphical, anything. So having a large area with a lot of variation in sprites and tiles is very difficult.
Mike tysons punchout is not technically impressive for an NES game, it's most impressive in terms of design. The design of the game works to the NES's strengths.
The graphics are simple, leaving a lot of space for making the character sprites do complex actions along with having them be readable. This is what is most impressive for this game. The NES has such a teeny tiny amount of space to render sprites and to store animations for sprites. I imagine that there is some hacky fucking shit going behind the scenes to make it work, I would guess they have to fight the hardware in order to assign enough ram specifically to sprites which would otherwise be assigned to tiles, but I am not sure. Definitely some bullshit hack that caused at least 3 people to take a day off after they figured it out. You also have to remember that everything with sprites is in 8x8 tiles, making it even more unwieldy than it would first seem. The maths ain't that intense, something that a much weaker computer than the NES could do with ease. But the graphics, getting those to be readable, and to run at 60fps consistently, that is pretty fuckin dope.
While the stance thing OP mentioned is cool, really it is at most a few extra bits of information. You assign the inputs of the punches, then assign a different animation to those punches. Most likely they have a default damage and timing for the punches, with the difference between the punches being a variable. A cool ass detail but technically not impressive.
@@jambott5520 I don’t remember leaving a comment here and I’m fasting Ramadan so all I’ll say is that I vaguely remember the punch out cart having some memory on board just to help with the gigantic sprites, probably raw graphical data issues, idk, ima explode, thanks for the comment tho
At one time, i could go through this game without taking a hit and thought i was great. This level of analysis and gameplay is just staggering to me.
No matter how good you think you are, there's always someone better. That's what my mom would always say to me. Lol idk if that's good or bad.
I still think that's pretty great; sure there are people who are so dedicated as to analyze the game down to its programming and statistics and whatnot, but when you've got no tools to assist you other than the original hardware and your wits, I'd say that that's something to be proud of.
@@brad9284 That's also one of the biggest and most humble lessons from Dragon Ball
@@orlandofurioso7329 *laughing in jiren*😂
@@brad9284 SummoningSalt on Mike Tyson: am i a joke to you?
"ok, that was the hard part. now it's time for the other hard part" had me rolling
"had me rolling" jabs?
it gets worse before it gets worse
0:00 Intro
1:10 Timing Method
2:26 Human to TAS Completion
2:43 'Lass Joe
3:39 Don Flamenco 1
7:24 Great Tiger
9:28 Getting a Star Animation
10:08 "47.48"
11:20 Piston Honda 2 (and the start of RNG)
15:18 Von Kaiser 1
18:17 King Hippo
20:29 Mr. Sandman
28:09 Bald Bull 1
35:30 Super Macho Man Phase 1
39:58 Super Macho Man Phase 2
41:33 Super Macho Man Phase 3
42:11 The Actual Odds
43:30 Feasibility
45:30 Mike Tyson
48:48 Tyson Finder
49:39 The Tyson TAS
51:25 Soda Popinski
52:32 Soda TAS Pop
57:10 Piston Honda 1 (the bringer of RNG)
1:02:11 The Odds...
1:03:12 Don Flamenco 2 - Consistency turned into Fluid
1:05:32 The Impossibility
1:08:27 The Human Time
1:09:28 Bald Bull 2 Human Method
1:11:10 Bald Bull 2 TAS - The RNG Hell that nobody can or will go for
1:14:28 Conclusion
and i though the host didnt have a life......i was way off
Ah yes. My favorite Punch-Out character. ‘Lass Joe
@@ultimatedouchebag6760 This comment doesn't make any sense
So…
No RNG - Glass Joe, Don Flamenco 1, and Great Tiger
Humans have done / will do - Piston Honda 2, Von Kaiser, King Hippo, and Mr. Sandman
Feasible for a human - Bald Bull 1 and Super Macho Man
Mike Tyson (Dream luck heavily recommended but not required + 17 frame-perfect dodges) - Mike Tyson
Requires Dream luck - Soda Popinski, Piston Honda 2, Don Flamenco 2
Not going to happen - Bald Bull 2
Dont insult me boy glass joe. He aint a quiter
It's fascinating to me seeing games like this that have been worked out to a science. Incredible.
Yeah it's really interesting
Most video games come down to pattern recognition and how fast you can see those patterns
This along with stuff like the minimum a press and speedrun of Mario 64 is absolutely insane to me. Like it gets to the point where you could write a Mathematics doctorate dissertation about some of the stuff in the minimum A press challenge.
The odds of pulling off a TAS perfect run in Mike Tyson's Punch Out are so low that even quantum fluctuations after the heat death of the universe aren't guaranteed to eventually result in it. You're more likely to end up with a bubble nucleation event creating a new universe.
Holy crap...you're right. In fact, it's more likely that another *you* will spontaneously materialize out of thin air...or win the lottery 20 times in succession.
@@psychotheunsane7285 BUT would it be more likely for another you to pop into existence while also having a copy of punch out and a TV with a console and battery to play it with?
There’s something magical and hilarious about the TAS essentially telling Bald Bull to go to hell and punching right through his attacks with 1 to 178 quadrillion odds.
Don 2 WR in 39.97 while the TAS is 58.00? Now that's insane 🙃
Just shows who's on my mind for taking MY HONDA 1 WR.
Kappa
Hehe
Me, reading this: okay.. TAS is an acronym for tool-assisted speedrun
Also me, who’s been raised on DC and a lover of Batman: Punch Out: The Animated Series
@@spookydivorce I'd watch it.
@@spookydivorce I just heard about TAS a few weeks back. I am only a casual gamer but it is still interesting to me. When I was younger I was all about using GameGenie, GameShark, Pro-Action Replay. I don't yet know what the above "WR" means.
And now, Summoning salt has tied the Mr Sandman TAS!
This is getting to Bismuth levels of: "when I was about to publish the video a new strat was discovered."
wow... the fact that you cant retry later fights very easily is crazy! i hadnt thought of that. these speedrunners are dedicated :D
You can practice using savestates, and then later do a run without them.
@@Rith9789just practice the rng
@@gregmax19 I mean tbf im stoned and so them pointing out the obvious actually helped me 😂😂😂😂😂
I was here thinking they couldnt save state to practice strats 🤦♀️🤦♀️😂
I tried this using save-scumming on the Nintendo Switch version. Even with my best timing I could not get past Tyson, that was unbelievable.
I know I'm well late, but it really doesn't help you that those Eshop ports aren't amazing. There usually is notable input delay in comparison to original, or even emulated. So, it makes the whole thing that much harder when everything you do has 2-5 frames of lag on top of the normal timing.
Oh man. Thank you for doing this. It explains so much of the "wtf this worked last time" feeling I've had while playing this game.
As a lover of impossible odds, the odds given in the very end for the whole TAS-speedrun are in the same ballpark as taking every grain of sand on the Earth, putting it in a bowl and then picking at random the same exact grain four times in a row. Or, if someone had simulated a full-game speedrun without RNG manipulation million times every second since the big bang, they would not have made basically any progress towards achieving this run yet, since they would be at around 0.000000000000000000000000000000001% of the number of games in which this run would occur.
Love seeing a speedrun video that talks about Summiningsalt’s contribution to the speedrun ING community outside of his incredible history videos.
I would love to see the metrics on the level of activity in speedrunning and/or the level of interest in speedrunning in general prior to Salt’s world record history videos and compare that to after his channel became so well known. I know he was a huge influence on my interest in speedrunning and I can’t be the only one.
I mean summongsalt does hold all but 1 world record for mike tyson’s punch out which is weird to think about
I always knew of salts history as a top runner in punch out but I had no idea he was still an elite runner today cool tidbit
He also just got SS WR too
Incredible work bro, the explanations and drawings + odds multiplying on each punch/dodge really shows how much you have figured out those mechanics to analyze the entire game frame by frame, very impressive.
Thanks! I appreciate it!
1987 - Summoning Salt beats MTPO before he is even born.
...
2023 - Summoning Salt ties TAS for Mr. Sandman
2024 - Summoning Salt ties the complete TAS
It's almost mid 2024 (5/18/24 at 2:45am (est) for your convience)
That was a fantastic video. Very well done. Thanks for making this. I think it's required watching for any MTPO speedrunner for sure.
As someone who has occasionally dabbled with watching speedruns for the last 10 years, your breakdowns of the odds in these videos are among the *very* best on the internet. Not only is it informative, it's highly entertaining (especially for someone who actually grew up owning this since their 7th birthday...) -definitely gold standard level material, sir. 11/10
So basically, if one were to start playing now and never stop playing until the heat death of the universe, executing perfectly every single time and resetting at the first instance of not perfect rng, the odds of a perfect run are still a near statistical impossibility.
When considering infinite time then your chances of doing it on the first attempt are the same as never accomplishing it
@@dspsblyuth Only if youre already as good as youll ever be
@@stitchfinger7678 60% of the time it works every time
@@dspsblyuth If you consider infinite time, the chances are 100% you'll get this run, so no they aren't anywhere close to the same. I don't care how big the exponent is, if it's not infinite then it's not infinite and therefore possible.
@@TehGamesavera simple example: although statistically improbable, it is possible to flip a coin infinite times none of which are heads
you could think of it as an infinite series of infinite attempts most of which result in a success at some point but some will never
Real respect for both the subject matter and that Driver music... I recognized it immediately! You're a real man of taste!
"1 to the 10^58. Those odds are pretty unlikely."
Unlikely. That is THE understatement of the century.
Incredible video, your music selection is top notch as well.
Aside from the absolutely astounding research, editing, and general presentation, holy hell what a niche banger of a track at 1:03:14 by Shiro Sagisu, as soon as the first few notes hit I popped out of my chair, that song may have the coolest lyrics of any song I know. Thank you for the amazing vid, it made my day.
Great video. I'm a "Viewer" rather than a competitor, and I find this combination of examples and statistics EXTREMELY informative. Thank you.
This was an amazing video to watch! I also love having such an epic Bleach theme for Don freaking flamenco of all people.
Your production value is so high. Love the video.
This is an incredibly put together video and very easy to understamd could be used as a study in stats classes.
I keep coming back to this video, partially to watch the fights and partially because I like listening to you, and in the process I came up with an idea for an interesting challenge:
What is the fastest possible time you can beat the game in, where the odds of the run are no worse than 1 in 1000?
There's so many random events that save time, so I'm curious as to, if there was a very specific amount of luck you could have total through the whole run, what random events would you want to go your way that would save the most time? So if you want a random star, or a lucky low refill, or a good pattern, you need to spend some of your limited pool of luck.
Those are very good questions... that I have no idea how to calculate lol...
Yeah… no thanks bald bull 2. You win…
Great video, it's insane seeing how RNG hell this can be for the speedrun. I wonder what the odds of SPO are, but unfortunately I don't think we know quite the full details of the RNG in the game are. Punch-Out Wii I hear has a lot less RNG I believe, so that would probably be the most possible of the 3 I'd guess.
Didn't someone almost get the perfect SPO run but lost it at the very end?
Yeah, I saw that in Summoning Salt's video.
@@phantomgrape yep FatPotatoSeal
The current WR by AwesomeAndy had a pace about a second slower but still had insane odds
great video man, really high effort. i’ve been watching it bit by bit to help me go to bed over the past week. love your channel keep up the good ass content
Awesome video man the detail and Knowledge is crazy lol☺️
Awesome video pap! Well done sir
Props to this insanely in depth and master class breakdown. But my guy, also huge shout out to the ungodly soundtrack chosen for the backdrop 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
You are a REAL one!
Let's not forget the words of summoning salt. Never underestimate the lengths runners will go to save time. Certainly those final fights won't be perfected any time soon but I'm willing to bet that at least a few new timesaves will be found and techniques that are considered TAS only will implimented in real runs. Players get better, communities discover new tricks and so on and so forth. The only certainty in speedrunning is that being nearly impossible just means that it is inevitable given enough time, effort and manpower.
Dick Stabbers. There are certain people who, if given the choice between nailing the prom queen vs. stabbing themselves in the dick, they’d stab their dick if it meant optimizing their run in one way or another.
Dick Stabbers. Jick from KoL came up with this.
thanks for putting your music in the description!
The soundtrack... OMG, could recognize each song...I need to rest from the screen LOL.
You, sir, deserve internet glory. Subbed.
What's the song at 11 minutes discussing piston? I keep feeling like have it figured out then it vanishes from my mind. Nevermind didn't realize it was in the description
@@freakbag420 LOL, Forget what I said as well, I didn't recognize that song and Driver's, but still, such a recognizable ost. Feels so familiar.
Ayo I was just scrolling UA-cam when I found this video😅. However, my good sir, you went so in depth it literally had me mind blown. I had never thought about a game like punch out to such an extent before. It honestly makes you appreciate what the devs were able to create with such old technology.
I know right
So true. The amount of soul and feel this game has is bordering on supernatural.
little mac's fists are so powerful he stops time, sounds like some anime shiz
Ahh, more PMD2 music right at the start. Awesome!
I choked on my beer when i saw the numbers rising on the last fight.
Incredible work.
Wow
1 in 51 Octodecillion 938 Septendecillion 225 Sexdecillion 37 Quindecillion 332 Quattordecillion 271 Tredecillion 540 Duodecillion 994 Undecillion 213 Decillion 31 Nonillion 60 Octillion 19 Septillion 456 Sextillion 688 Quintillion 275 Quadrillion 928 Trillion 354 Billion 886 Million 887 Thousand 882 odds of the perfect run.
Insanity.
Summoning salt can get those odds.
@@zolli21 can he get them 3 times in a row?
2.9k subs? WTF? This is some of the best content on you tube! If you keep this quality up I am sure you will explode in popularity. This video is so gosh darn great.
Great work man
Great breakdown, thanks
To put the odds into perspective, the probability of picking a random atom in the observable universe and it being a part of you is about 1000 times more likely than naturally getting all the RNG in this run
"Summoningsalt was the first one..." deadass almost fell backwards out of my bed doing a double take on that
fantastic breakdown
Great video man
Wow this video is amazing I should’ve charged my phone so I could’ve watched the entire thing but my phone was ded and I forgot.... although DAMN the odds are unbelievably low for a perfect run compared to runs for individual fighters or individual circuits. I expected it to be like atleast 10x to like 26x harder for a perfect run of the entire game but instead its thousands harder. Thats probably not even near the actual chances.... anyway again, cool vid. really high quality.
I love how the Tyson rng went from not great to hilarious just in the last 10 seconds
Little Mac's boxing gimmick is just machine gun left gutpunches. Man does more liver damage than a gallon of everclear.
Punch out runners be the type of people to buy scratchers every time they're at the gas station
15:09 - im surprised to NOT hear "We're Finally Landing" start to play when SSalt's name is mentioned...i mean, its kinda like his 'theme song', like how SuperMario64's FileSelect is the 'theme song' for Parallel Universes (or having to explain with "but first, we need to talk about.....")
This video was so fantastically done.
Love the bleach soundtrack used, and wow the rng is insane for this game
SummoningSalt just tied the Sandman TAS yesterday.
1:14:48 "those odds are pretty unlikely" the biggest understatement ever. The universe is only 5x10^17 seconds old. That means that youd need one hundred duodecilion (41 zeros) people to do the speedrun perfectly every single second since the big bang to see this happen
This video is awesome.
For the people who like the song at 2:39 the song is Miami at Night Chase by Allister Brimble. This song was used in the soundtrack for Driver for the PS1.
I love the fact you used the Giratina Battle Remix by GlitchxCity in the video, love their remixes.
Having now watched part of your recent high score TAS, I would LOVE to see a video about how you did it.
Not only are the odds absolutely impossible to overcome, given the numbers, it might be that it's impossible for the RNG function to call all of these consecutively as necessary to make such a run possible, as even with the event space, it might be that certain intervals of this run have sequences that couldn't be replicated on a non-TAS section bue to the random number function's value sequences. In essence, not only would some of these be literally impossible for humans, the whole run may be impossible on cartridge even with perfect conditions.
Im pretty sure it can be console verified, if it hasnt been already. But yeah, a human isnt pulling off some of these fights in isolation, let alone doing all the fights like this in a single run.
I'd be honored to be on the leaderboards for even one of these fights starting from King Hippo onward. I wanna aim for King Hippo one of these days as a personal vendetta for him making me cry at a friends party when I was younger.
Love this channel
Being able to beat Tyson made me a second grad god at my school. No one else could get past piston Honda 2. The good old days.
Pokémon shiny hunters: You dare challenge me?
"yeah in his house probably"-me when I use tyson finder
Giving you an idea of how large that number is in regards to how rare the perfect run is; that's about 51.9×10^57, as the video points out. But 10^57 is a number that does, in fact, have a name you might even know! It's called an octodecillion... So, in other words, the odds are 1 in 51.9 octodecillion.
For context, as of writing this comment, Cookie Clicker's lategame usually begins around the octodecillion range, and that's when we're talking about it in the context of it being a normal number, not a denominator of a fraction. That's a big number! Like, comically so!
Cookie clicker is quite an old game to use as an anology
@@thegamingfreak6807 Octodecillion being reachable reasonably is fairly new, though.
@@thegamingfreak6807 - Cookie Clicker still receives updates! Heck, it semi-recently released on Steam with music by C418.
@@camwoodstock adventure capitalist would be a better example
I will become the world's first octodecillionaire one day. Remember me when that day comes.
The amount of times you said frame perfect in just like the first 15 minutes of this video was enough for me let alone all the rng
15:16 I recognize that music anywhere. It's the theme of the Ginyu Force from the Bruce Faulconer score of DBZ.
Look at all this dedication and we still cant cure the common cold. Grest job! Fantastic video.
very in depth wow!
So according to the RNG presented in this video, for every Perfect Bull 2 fight, there are approximately:
39507953 Perfect Don 2
4.18E09 Perfect Honda 1
8.79E11 Perfect Soda
1.16E12 Perfect Tyson
4.47E13 Perfect Macho
1.74E14 Perfect Bull 1
1.56E15 Perfect Sandman
4.69E15 Perfect Hippo
1.63E16 Perfect Von Kaiser
2.22E16 Perfect Honda 2
1.77E17 Perfect Joe, Tiger, and Don 1
Wow, just wow…
And all of this combined gets you a time of slightly under 13 minutes.
This video deserves to blow up
Watching this live was a treat. I've always loved MTPO and I'm fascinated by the speedruns (although I can't speedrun so i cannot contribute). The sheer work to do all this math to figure this out I gotta commend.
IKR??? It's amazing to me how people figure this stuff out. I'm from the era where the high score was everything
There is no such thing as "not being able to speedrun", you don't have to get the world record or a high time. You can just improve your own personal bests. After all (most) people speedrun to have fun.
1:32 it's 100% the case with Bald Bull's second fight in the World Circuit. He only gets up on 9, and always, always, always does the fake before that.
35:47 haha super macho man goes twee twee tweeww
_my MACHO man got too cocky with puny american boy he only threw one attack before dying_
I had no idea the left gut punch did 20% less damage than the right gut punch but was faster. I'll almost certainly never use this information, but it's interesting.
57:11)
"Tell me, does a speedrunner like yourself feel fear?!"
-Honda 1
Very high quality video
Ty for the video!
A moment of silence for Matt Turk's records, which pioneered Punch Out speedruns to begin with.
THEE most fascinating math lesson EVER!!!
Major respect for using Pokemon mystery dungeon music in the background
**Billy Mitchell enters chat**
You are either a lawyer, extremely rich, or fearless of danger, to invoke that name.
Swear to god, Pap, i´ve had this video recomended like 20+ times and i have tried to watch it but i have fallen asleep the las 6 days and im only on the 20 minute mark, i advance a little every time but u should consider making a vocals asmr channel.
36:04 use of yoshis island music for some reason unlocked a core memory of mine for a sec lol
I adored this video!