Housing Market in 2024 - Wharton Professor Susan Wachter's Real Estate Forecast
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- Опубліковано 4 чер 2024
- In an interview on Wharton Business Daily, Susan Wachter - Albert Sussman Professor of Real Estate at the Wharton School - offers her forecast on where the housing market and mortgage rates are headed in 2024, particularly given trends surrounding inflation and interest rates.
Topics and questions covered:
00:00 - Introductions
00:27 - 2023 housing market trends
1:24 - Analyzing inventory (supply side)
5:34 - Predicting trends in interest rates
7:29 - Adjustments in housing prices
10:08 - Commercial real estate
11:51 - Takeaways
Wharton Business Daily airs Monday-Friday from 10 AM - 12 PM ET on SiriusXM Channel 132, featuring emerging trends, top business leaders & Wharton’s renowned professors. Learn more: whr.tn/businessdaily
#housingmarket #realestate #mortgagerates #interestrates
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I predict a housing crash due to people buying homes over asking price, lacking equity if prices decline further. Foreclosure becomes likely if they can't afford the house, and selling won't yield profits. With anticipated layoffs and rising living costs, many individuals may face this situation.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad as it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too.
You are right! I’ve diversified my portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $830k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
Do you mind sharing info of the adviser who assisted you?
'Melissa Maureen Ward' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her; hopefully, she gets back to me.
Great video! For 2024, it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.
I suggest you offset your real estate and get into stocks, A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
You are right! I’ve diversified my $450K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment coach, I have been able to generate a little bit above $830k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds.
That’s impressive, have you always had a financial advisor?
Finding financial advisors like Margaret Johnson Arndt who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.
Investing in both real estate and stocks can be prudent choices, particularly when backed by a robust trading strategy that can navigate you through prosperous periods.
You're not doing anything wrong; the problem is that you don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging conditions.
@@hasede-lg9hj Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
Actually, I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention this, but I'd recommend looking up Vivian Carol Gioia because she was a big deal in 2020. She manages my portfolio and serves as both my coach and my manager.
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quite mediocre neighborhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighborhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .
I agree, It's not just the prices, but also the increasing interest rates that are making it more difficult for people to afford homes. With a good FA you can make up your portfolio.
I agree. This is why I work with an investment advlsor, I currently have $630k in a well-diversified portfollo that has experienced exponential growth.
in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of loss.
Christine Ann Podgorny is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
I love the way Professor Wachter explains this. Her students are fortunate to have her as a teacher!! Hope to see other videos from her!!
Market highs can sometimes be followed by corrections, but predicting the timing and extent of it is challenging. I've heard some analysts talk about a 'massive' correction. It makes me wonder if it's time to adjust my $24M portfolios or maybe even consider some defensive investments.
Consider diversifying your portfolio with a mix of stocks and stable assets. Seeking professional advice now could provide valuable insights and strategies to navigate market uncertainties and protect your investments.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $5 million in returns on invest-ments.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
Aileen Gertrude Tippy is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip.
So a 200k home 3years ago is now 500 to 600k today. That big of jump will hold?? A point or 2 in interest rates doesn't compensate or equalize the mega price of homes
The discussion completely missed the real problem that is affecting the housing market. Big investment firms and the wealthy buying up properties and turning them into rentals. The second issue, especially in high priced markets, is short-term investment rentals. AirBnB and VRBO have taken millions of homes off the market world wide. Lastly, house flippers have removed the opportunity for you average person to buy a fixer upper. Tax laws need to be put in place reduce or stop real estate from being a business investment for firms, rich families, and realtors. If something isn't done, the market will continue have low supply and prices will continue to rise.
Totally agree, but it never will happen.
Yep. This comment is the real meat and potatoes in my opinion. The rest is noise.
ua-cam.com/video/ZEwxYvQVU5g/v-deo.html
Inflation is anything but solved. All you need to look at are grocery prices, utility bills, all insurance including car, home and health.
Well, those prices are from they high inflation over the past few years. Future increases, will be much smaller than what we saw. Also, supply chain issues and high demand caused a lot of that inflation. Things are getting better now.
Yeah… she is pretty confident that “Inflation is under control”. The Fed better keep tightening their balance sheet… especially if they drop interest rates
Housing prices will only decline when interest rates are kept high for many years. You don’t fix housing issues due to a decade of low interest rates with a 1 year patch.
Will need a decade of higher interest rates to fix a housing bubble form from a decade of low interest rates. Agreed.
"We've solved inflation." Famous last words by this Professor. Study 1970s history, the 2022/2023 inflation spike was just the first wave. Next wave will come after fed decreases rates.
She's a hard-line Biden supporter.
Seriously. Even current annual inflation is pretty much double what it was 3 years ago.
Why would you sell your house and then pay more for a house and take a higher interest rate? And realtor commissions are out of control. 6% is insane. If you sell a house for $500,000 you are paying $30,00 in commission. For what?
Thanks for speaking honestly about the real estate situation. The industry has driven home prices too high for most families. The solution is for prices to align with family budgets, even if it means a market correction. Cryptocurrencies offer an alternative, less influenced by traditional market factors. I'm indebted to Cheryl Atonal for her expert guidance, her deep crypto knowledge and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this journey, With her holistic investment approach and her commitment to staying current with market trends, she stands out as a formidable ally in the cryptocurrency world...
It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this.
Nice to see this here, Cheryl Atonal's understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Cheryl’s insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
She consistently tracks and reviews investment performance, which helps in fine-tuning strategies and making informed adjustments as needed.
‘We have solved the inflation problem”. That is going to be a statement she wants back.
Had time to hear her say the consumers have spending resiliency especially when we have history seeing consumer debt out pacing earnings. Does anyone have data on the consumer debt trends during this supposed period of consumer resilience?
what is the guarantee house price will come down due to lower interest rates? Yes existing supply of house will go up but I suspect demand will go up substantially more.
Couldn’t agree more
That’s the million dollar question. As rate hikes began, have people been squeezed enough to shrink the demand? Savings depleted, cost of living up, student loans etc etc etc. money was more useful a couple years ago. Not so much anymore. In 21/22 there were a lot of buyers. But 24/25 many of those people might not be buyers anymore
@@ObserverDriftMusic given the insane amount of travel people are still doing around me in Seattle, i will say people still have a lot of money in their pockets. I am not seeing any slowdown yet.
If people can afford that monthly payment, yes demand will suck up all the excess inventory from owners wanting to trade places, but I doubt ppl sitting on sideline today are only due to lack of choices. Look at salary increases if they are anywhere close to housing price inflation last 3 years.
@@ObserverDriftMusic From the retail data, doesn’t look like they are squeezed out yet, plus there are likes of CASH buyers like Blackrock, institutional investors, REITs, Foreign buyers, Flippers, all waiting for 5% rate to pounce back on what ever housing comes back to the market
She is not merely a historian, but a well-recognized expert in the real estate field. This Wharton professor gets paid handsomely by builders and financial institutions for her expertise. Mortgage rates will fall rapidly by 3Q/24 and going forward since we are now in the early stages of deflation which will last for the next 1&1/2 to 2 years. Millenials and Z generations are moving into family formation,, and they will produce a growing demand for housing. Builders have over-built multi-family housing and those prices are coming down; but single family housing is very under-built.
I keep hearing about this ‘family formation’ and yet we know it’s happening at the lowest rates ever and marriage and child rearing continue to decline. All population growth is migration, but these are people who have to walk across the border. They aren’t buying 500,000+ houses. I just don’t see it.
These people who can't qualify for a mortgage are still buying every house they can afford or getting seller-financed around me@@zwatwashdc
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
I cannot believe she is teaching RE.
What qualifies you to judge?
❤thank you!!
Do you think it's a good time to consider selling some stocks, or is it better to hold onto them for the long term? I’m considering rebalancing my $2M portfolios, So I'm curious about the best strategies for potential market downturns
I guess it's important to reassess your investment strategies based on current market conditions. You should also consider a market expert to guide you
You're right mate! I’ve been using a fin-market expert for two years now and I own a 7figure diversified portfolio from investing in stocks. Currently, my portfolio is worth over $900k.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?.
Nicole Desiree Simon is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
If inflation went to zero tomorrow, all this means is that prices have stopped going up. It in no way means that prices are coming down to pre-pandemic levels. SFR prices in my area are up over 60% since 2019, home buyers in my area need a decline in prices to pre-pandemic levels to afford ownership. The only way prices come down is if there is a recession. The monthly base cost of SFR ownership over the past 4 years has more than doubled. The monthly base cost for a nice $350k pre-pandemic SFR was around $2,000 (mortgage, mortgage insurance, property insurance and property taxes) , today it is around $5,200 for the same home! Seriously, without a huge reduction in the cost of homes, how can the average individual or family afford a home today? Of course if prices do drop to pre-pandemic levels, this means that the US is in a deep, hard recession.
Salt Lake has the exact problem. Only building tightly built high density, with no green spaces. It feels like a prison. No place to raise a family.
Zoning regulation and requirements is the reason, in my opinion. No incentive, ir easing of requirents, to do large lots. Its the same whete i live, across the country. International codes have been pushed into building and zoning codes.
Wages no change
Groceries ⬆️
Car payment ⬆️
Health insurance ⬆️
Car insurance ⬆️
Utility ⬆️
Credit card debt ⬆️
Hygiene products ⬆️
Same wages vs tripled living expenses
Mortgage OVER PRICED 😂😂😂what’s going on America 🇺🇸
Thank you Melody for fighting for the truth and give awareness to citizens 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏History will remember you and other UA-cam who Scream for real estate justice 🙏🙏🙏
Right, the world does not need a “professor” to see what’s going on
I wasn't financial free until my 40’s and I’m still in my 40’s, bought my third house already, earn on a monthly through passive income, and got 4 out of 5 goals, just hope it encourages someone's that it doesn’t matter if you don’t have any of them right now, you can start TODAY regardless your age INVEST and change your future! Investing in the financial market is a grand choice I made.
Hello, I’m 37 and I am not worth much yet , please help me out. Bought my first house last month and I can't seem to make any other smart investment.
wanted to trade, but I got discouraged with the market price fluctuations
Can you recommend a guide for me?
I would highly recommend Professional Chrissy Barymoer for you ".,
I knew someone would mention Chrissy Barymoer, he is perfect in helping beginners grow. I would not recommend anyone else.
When you see the property tax and property insurance portion of a monthly house payment grow to be 30-40% of the monthly house payment in a 3-4 year span, it’s untenable for the average family.
It’s almost as if something is working to drive people from being homeowners.
I foresaw the housing crisis and sold my property. I then put it in the market, about $200,000 of it. That was late February. I've lost more than 40% of my portfolio's value. It makes me really sad. How can I turn this situation around?
This is really sad. If you're not who understands strategies to invest in the market, why not seek a financial advisor to help you grow your portfolio?
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I’ve been in touch with an Advsr for a while now mostly and I made over 95% profit within a short time.
Pls can you recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Natalie Noel burns” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
What world is inflation under control? People are suffering left and right.
謝謝 🙏🏻😊
Wife and I live in the Austin area. We paid oiur home off two years ago. And now we are waiting for it all to crash so we see our property taxes decrease. Our home appraises at $390k and we just wrote the county a $4900 check for property taxes. What a rip off. We want to see the market tank for the next two + years. Lower our property values and it lowers my property taxes.
I'm a new re agent and I totally want to see the crash happen. It's absolutely ridiculous looking at prices rising 150k+ what houses were 2 years ago...and for no good reason other than greed. Currently lots of new listings are mobile homes. I firmly believe we are going to see prices lower... perhaps in the form of a crash?! 🤞
Crash is headed this way as is a recession. @@holls9723
I think it's time to make it more appealing for potential buyers. Real estate can be quite the rollercoaster! the stress and uncertainty are getting to me. I think I'll cut rents to attract potential buyers and exit the market, but i'm at crossroads if to allocate the entire $680k liquidity value to my stock portfolio?
"Overall, buyers hold a lot of the cards right now, and sellers are having to give out more concessions to close a deal." All the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
Until the Fed clamps down even further I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now with financial markets will be best you seek a fin-professional with fiduciary responsibilities who knows about mortgage-backed securities for proper guidance.
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Her name is “Vivian Carol Gioia” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send a mail to her and let you know how it goes.Thanks for sharing truly!
Just because inflation goes down to acceptable levels does not mean food fuel insurance good clothing will go down. Housing can drop 15-25 % in some areas, cost of overall living will stay high for many years because of high debt levels everywhere in the world.
What Professor Wachter's analysis does not address is the cyclical character of our property markets. There is strong data indicating that because property markets are credit-fueled and speculation-driven, on average every 18.5 years the property market becomes overstressed and results in the bursting of the property asset bubble. The situation is exacerbated because the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury decided back in 2008 to use their powers to prop up the property markets by making credit cheaply available. As a result, within a few years the median price of a residential property rose above the previous high of 2007, creating a new affordability crisis and setting the stage (potentially) for an even deeper financial crash. We are in uncharted waters when one tries to forecast the consequences of the unprecedented level of consumer and public debt. We should be watching very closely the levels of delinquencies on all types of consumer debt. If the cyclical experience repeats, then 2026 is when all bets are off.
NO CRASH! Thanks for the level head, Susan!
Inventory is being limited by investment companies and the AirBnB homes. I’ve seen apartments empty and when I ask management they say they don’t have any available units. It’s a bunch of BS!
That is part of the problem. Somewhere around 10%. The large problem in my opinion is everyday people that hit market at a good time in the past, and own multiple homes a use them to make passive income. People need places to live and they got lucky and have the supply. I think there should be a law that both caps the number of residential properties one can own and any past one should be required to 10 year terms instead of 30.
I’m 37 and been waiting for ever since after COVID to see when is best
its tough to see how prices will fall much. if rates drop then supply of existing homes will increase as people trade up or down . but prices on desirable properties will rise because of lower mortgage rates!
As a recent father, having relocated to the Bay Area a couple of years ago, I'm contemplating buying a single-family home. However, given the soaring real estate prices, I'm uncertain whether it's a prudent decision to make at this time. Should I instead consider investing in stocks and wait for a potential correction in the housing market? I've heard that Nvidia and AMD are particularly promising investment options.
It's ultimately a personal choice, but Forbes suggests that housing activities are likely to remain sluggish for the majority of the year, so perhaps it's wise to postpone your decision for now.
You might consider placing a down payment on a home while also diversifying your investments into artificial intelligence and pharmaceutical stocks, such as Pfizer and JnJ.
Some artificial intelligence companies are speculated to be overvalued and could potentially trigger a market correction. While opting for a managed portfolio is an option, their performance may not always be optimal. Therefore, it's advisable to consult with a reputable fiduciary for guidance, as this approach has proven effective for my spouse and me.
I'm new to this area. Where can I locate a fiduciary, and do you have any recommendations?
The Government could allow the Mortgage Interest Deduction be doubled, so 7% borrowing isn't a problem ?
Since Government Deficits Don't Matter ?
Let's Jump Start Housing Consumption through Deficit Spending !
As long as we Do It for Everything Else !
Let Us Supply the Demand !
These are unprecedented times in real estate, we haven’t seen rates and home prices this high in a decade. Rents for sure will go down due to the over supply of multifamily homes that will hit the market soon. Supply of Single family homes is still low and once those rates drop demand will pick up driving up home prices…basic demand-supply economics
I absolutely disagree with her. The supply is low yet prices are still falling all over the nation, which means there is no demand. Anybody who has their credit destroyed during this time. They are not going to be buyers. If this continues any longer. It doesn’t matter at the drops rates to zero and mortgage rates at 3% because that’s exactly what happened in 2008 and it still fell for six years.
It's just seasonality, bro.
The paradigm of 2008 does not apply to the present because there was in 2008 an oversupply of homes relative to demand; whereas the opposite applies today as there is a severe shortage of supply relative to the demand from the millennial and Z generations. No, prices are not falling 'all over the nation'; in fact, they are falling and rising depending on the local circumstances. One can disagree with facts, but then one is not being objective and analytical.
Bro don’t wait for a real estate crash like 2008😅! Look at the price of materials, foods, cars.. everything triple up!!
You can only regurgitate what you read and see in news outlets, you don’t qualify to critique what she is saying. Do you have the skills to prove what you’re saying “empirically” ? If so please send me YOUR work showing this
2008 was a banking collapse, not housing. It was due to banks illegal activities, when it came to mortgages. Nothing to do with housing, except that mortgages were the tool used to steal money. 2008 had nothing to do with the housing market itself. Also, demand is low, because people know that rates will soon drop. When they do, there is going to be a flood of people wanting to buy and the people selling will be buying another home, so that isn't going to add houses to the market. Prices will rise as rates drop.
housing prices don't go down with lower rates, they rise with lower rates. Don't need to be a wharton prof to know that.
For now cash is king, many builders are offering 4.5 % APR for new houses but still struggling to sell.
5 years Mortgages has already down to 5.5% from 6.5% and it hasn’t gotten much attention. Maybe it’s cause it happened in Nov/Dec. Now it’s Jan. But Mortgages hasn’t lowered much. 10yr US bond bounced off the lows. Banks not lowering rates further for now. We have not solved inflation.
The house market gave me quite a scare recently. A home is just not the best investment right now. Recently had to sell one of my homes in California, looking to invest about $400,000 of it in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?
You should first have a conversation with the law, like a hedge fund manager or financial manager. For my part, I prefer the latter to the Yt opinions.
True. Exactly why I work with one. I currently have $690k in a well-diversified portfollo and my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market. We are working on more figures ballpark goal for this year. My best so far...
Sure! She goes by 'HEATHER LEE LARIONI'. Just research the name. All of this happened in less than a year after she told me what to do.
I think a lot of experts are truly underestimating the inflation problem and how it is tied to US deficit spending. Has it come down from its peak? yes but it is still quite a ways above the 2% target and the last time the US had a serious inflation problem it took BOTH the FED raising interest rates AND the Government cutting spending in order to bring it back in line. I don't think the FED raising rates on its own will be enough and I also don't think the Government has any interest in cutting spending either.
WHY are interest rates so high???
Why do we have such horrible inflation?
BIDEN...
Inflation problem is solved? Core inflation?
Hello and thank you for informing us.!!!!! I what the hell are w talking about?!!!!
"The market is saying 4.5%" yet the market is hijacked by the FED. The lag and reliance in a central govt is the issue. The artificially low rates affected prices. Prices will go down AND wage pressure will result in increased wages. Next is fractional banking is another major issue and drives inflation.
All things are cheaper when compared to a fixed supply asset. Look at Bitcoin as an escape hatch. IMHO❤
Prices will go down, when rates go down lol? Demand and prices, will go through the roof, when rates go down. She forgets that the people waiting to sell, due to lower interest rates, are going to be buying another home too. So those houses that will come on the market will mainly be people looking to buy another house, that's bigger, smaller or in a different location. Sure, it's going to add inventory, but also add the same amount of buyers, on top of the people waiting on the sidelines. The only new inventory, is what's being built and homes that people were just renting. Sorry, prices will go up as rates come down.
Inflation increase is measured by comparing to last year's rate. But we have been having hyper inflation accumulation since 2021 for the last 3 years, so even when the inflation rate slows down this year at "only" at 2.9% compared to the record high of last year, we all are seeing the huge pain of everything from insurance, rent, foods and housing, going up by over 100% compared to the affordable standard in 2020. Plus they use core CPI that excludes food and energy prices, which is so bullshxx bc who on earth can survive without foods and energy?!!!
You forgot the part about new homes are absolutely FLOODING THE MARKET.
Just get a home and learn to be a salesperson and negotiate with home owners that are selling now while rates are high you can change a rate but not a bad purchase price!
Inflation is under control if the Govt changes the metrics on how to measure it … which they have done … prices will keep increasing
Not just interest rates, bidding wars have been going on since 2018 . Asset prices have skyrocketed as a result of Federal Reserve’s 0 rates for well over a decade causing Wall Street hedge funds to scoop up homes during GFC. NEW zoning pushing smaller homes, lots and towers of condos and mostly apartment rentals. Millennials haven’t been able to afford a home for a while
Wrong on inflation todays report shows December inflation climbed and it’s heating back up again
Wharton professor is completely wrong. The FED increased interest rates for different reasons not jus inflation. 1- US gov is broke and owes to much money 2-personal debt is record high 3- home building materials have increased 4-food and housing has increased 5-the dollar is devalued 6-US treasury bond has very few buyers as opposed to years before. Where is the FEd going to get the money from to lower interest rates?
Someone who simply regurgitates what’s he hears from media news videos yet can’t verify using econometric techniques is trying to tell who’s wrong and right. If gave you the data to address some of these issues would you even know what to do with the raw data to establish casual relationships?
Mind as well say 8
Wrf?!?! If interests go down, prices will go up.
she predicts that housing prices will fall. If the cost of borrowing money goes down, won’t that drive demand up? If demand goes up, why would prices fall?
Lol, of course prices will go up. Her idea was that people will sell, once rates come down. But umm, they are going to be buying a new house if they sell, so that adds to the inventory, but also adds the same amount to the pool of buyers. I don't understand these professionals.
Exactly. She’s full of shit.
Sounds like an advocate for special interest group. Probably supported by the industry for years...
If home prices didn’t crash when mortgage rates were at 8%, they definitely won’t crash when and if rates get to 5%. 70% of mortgage holders have an interest rate locked in below 4%. I’m not even part of that 70%. My rate is locked in at 4.5% and I won’t be selling anytime soon.
What if you could sell for double?
@@virtuaguyverify I can sell for more than double right now. I purchased this home in 2007.
@@virtuaguyverifyIf one can sell for double, then one must either buy for double, return to renting, or downgrade the house and/or location to pocket some of the sales proceeds. For most people, none of those options are appealing.
Nope “ we’ve have solved the inflation problem…” tell that to first time retail homebuyers & see what they would say.
Once interest rates go down, prices will sky rocket!
That's common senses, but in this market it's unpredictable, so anything can still happen
Inflation is getting WORSE! Unfortunately! NOT SOLVED!
The greedy flippers need to be reined in somehow.
"Solved inflation", I don't think so.
Enjoyed the content but the production needs to be improved. The video volume is much less that top videos so if you're watching a playlist this video is hard to hear. On top of the the voice levels between host and interviewee should be normalized. Thanks!
Inflation is not solved. You're dead wrong lady
The more people buy these overpriced home at high rates the more likely there will be a crash. People will not sustain 3-4K a month housing payments for 30 years. Just ain’t gonna happen. People want a house so badly, they put a minimum down payment, don’t really care about the payment until you get tired of not going on vacation, can’t buy a new car, living pay check to paycheck. And then you cant sell because you owe 95-97% of the value and now you have to pay a realtor to sell your home. This is when people say screw it. Stop paying , then comes the foreclosures. And once the ball starts rolling, gonna be tough to stop it. What I’m seeing in the northeast is insanity. What people are paying for homes and the interest rates they are paying is absolutely insane.
If she knew what was going to happen she wouldn't be teaching. She's a real estate historian.
How do you know what she owns? Also then why are you here?
She missed so many things. Just another expert trying to predict, what no one can.
Sellers need to understand theiir house isnt worth 2022 pricing.
My nephew is gen z he just bought a house in one of the most expensive states to boot 😂 if millennials only start to look at buying a house now they are way too late lol
This woman seems overly optimistic about lowering interest rates. She says it’ll lower costs but the fact is people are gonna charge as much money as they can get away with so I don’t see prices coming down from lowering interest rates it seems that it’s the only thing that has stopped the market from running away. keeping the rates higher for longer is what the market needs right now
the rates are moderate, people got addicted to free money and now that its priced, they believe the rates are high. back in the late seventies rates were in the teens, THAT is high. 6%, 7%, those rates aren't high at all. the wall street investor groups aren't going to start selling the thousands of rental properties in their massive portfolios because if they did they would no longer be sucking in the billions of dollars they are making to both recoup their spending, and finance their FUTURE purchases. there aren't enough construction workers to produce new homes fast enough as well. home prices aren't coming down, EVER. rates don't matter that much, unless they rise from where they are now. that ain't happening. don't buy a condo though.
Free money? You mean the people over pricing their homes well over 150k++ when they've added nothing of value. Don't blame people loosing their jobs, who've paid into the system for years and got stimulus money...that's not free money. It's literally called income tax and it's free money for the government to take it from our paychecks and mismanage the hell out of it. No...free money is pricing mediocre home for 150k++ over actual assessed value. Or landlords charging 2-5k a month in rent. Now that's free money!!! Go back to your CNN bubble
do you even understand what happens if you overprice a home 150,000 dollars? it DOES NOT SELL. the homes are selling because the price is what the market is. @@holls9723
Professor. 😂😂
Why do we have open borders if we can't house Americans.
Hold on, if your going to say 7% rate caused mkt to freeze, why don't you say Fed ZIRP over heated the housing mkt. I swear, i know more about real estate than freaking professors, but anyways, continue...
Talking about rate drops already is ridiculous. Interest rates need to go to 10% to get housing prices down
Correct. Low carry costs creates too much speculation by investors who leverage the shit out of their balance sheet.
Exactly! It's the high price rather than morgage rate that makes housing unaffordable for residents nowadays. Low interest rates have encouraged leveraged housing speculation that drove up home prices. Just check the annual cost for a 30-year morgaged house (including payments for principle, morgage interests and a 1% price-based property tax), e.g., it is only about $11,530 for a $100,000 loan at even a 10% morgage rate, while it's $22,326 for a $300,000 loan at a 5% morgage rate.
@@jld2823your first sentence makes no economic sense, maybe you should take her class. Non-professional players trying to critique NBA players is ridiculous
Well at 10% , the inventory would be extremely low and prices would remain high. If they drop rates, prices will go up also. The only way to lower prices, is higher supply than demand. Don't see that happening anytime soon.
@@micker9830 no, that’s not true. Supply is not the only way to lower prices.
Prices have already dropped some because of interest rates.
This is basic economics.
She talks a load of crap.
Inflation has come down 🤣🤣🤣
The average income to housing ratio has never been this bad because of the artificial rates. "Inflation is under control " 😂😂😂 to funny. She sounds like someone that says everything is ok honey but it really isn't.
This is all absolute speculation. No one can say for sure if interest rates go down what will happen to house prices! Historically they went up , but who knows 2024 may be different.
Another expert trying to guess, what no one knows.
You obviously do not buy groceries lady….
Your table is outsized and in the way
I guess I define inflation differently than this guest.
What’s your definition? I guess your the expert
Just a bunch of obvious observations about supply and demand. How about addressing what needs to happen to have a more rational housing market:
>Eliminate Fannie Mae and government subsidy of mortgage rates
>End deductibility of mortgage interest
>Stop the insanity of 30 year fixed mortgage rates. Just creates haves (low rate holders) and have nots that distorts the mortgage markets.
>End the monopoly of realtors
>Provide incentives for increasing housing density and building of homes
It is time to stop all government subsidy of mortgages that distorts the market.
some rationality you got their
Wow, who is going to buy a house with those in place lol? NO fixed rates?? How could someone know what they could afford? What if rates went from 3% to 15%? I guess millions would just lose their homes lol? You sound like someone who is bitter, that you didn't buy a house before. Hang in there, things change. Yes, timing is everything in life. Some miss the boat and need to wait for the next one.
@@micker9830 I am lucky enough to own a house for which I paid off the 15-year mortgage. I am thinking about the next generation of buyers that are being shut out of the market.
Gloom & Doomers on the march. They are all looking forward to the, "You won't own anything, But you''ll be Happy", syndrome. They buy it cheap & "RENT IT HIGH"...
Stay away ! the reality is the living expenses are skyrocketing ! people are struggling to survive. This is manipulation no one is buying. Most of the houses are listed as pending or under contract but after 2 or 3 months it’s back to the market 🤔 remember most of the houses are owned by big corporations like open houses, Zillow etc so they can do everything they can to keep the overpriced. Of course They have a power “ lobbyists “ just pray to have a government who cares for working families not for corporations 😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢
This makes me want to scream. How can housing prices go up 50% in three years and then stay there if nobody can afford a home. It's not the rates, it's the crazy high prices. And the new master-planned housing sucks, it's so ugly. Surveillanceland.
Inflation solved? Are you living under a rock lady
We have solved nothing. Car prices are still up 30% , the inflation we had the past 3 years is not coming down or going away. Future prices might be stable, so what !!!
Exactly
I love how people regurgitate what they hear in news outlets but can’t THEMSELVES prove any causality in the economy using econometric techniques
@@mikejewell8518 this stupid lady said inflation was gone. No one in the comments agrees with her.
Nice try dude.
Inflation is gone? Lol. Ridiculous
Didn’t know you were in the NBA, I guess you qualify to critique her jump shot
@@mikejewell8518 lol.
@@mikejewell8518 BTW, only stupid people listen to progressive academics. They are the biggest liars about anything related to common sense
I would never take advice from an academic.
Any of these broadcasts are complete garbage. The fact remains that no one knows what’s going to happen. JP Morgan was calling for a depression/recession for the summer of 2023 and that never happened. They called for the complete collapse of the economy when the pandemic hit, and we all saw what that did to the construction industry. You can’t forecast this stuff, that’s what I’ve learned in my 60 years here on earth.
Inflation has not been controlled.
The metrics by what they measure inflation have been slashed.
Housing, is not in the metrics.
Buy Bitcoin. Fiat is dieing
Housing, food and energy. So, it’s laughable when they speak of inflation at 3%, etc.
Is this woman crazy? We have not solved inflation! What planet is she living on?
Bad predictions by Biden voters.