Omg! FED and Janet are wondering. Wondering why labor unemployment do not rising? Janet and Congress rising limit of budget deficit. Rising and rising debt of USA budget. Means they are creating new jobs in government sector. Creating and creating. And??? And are wondering with Powell FED why labor market so resilience! Inflation will never stop till rising limit of debt USA. USA will go with rate 5% to the 2025 believe me....
I watched Jeremy’s 2023 prediction back in 2022 and his prediction about stock market turning bullish turned out as true. I will listen to Jeremy over other economists and bankers 😊
Make sure you read his book "Stocks for the Long Run"- absolute classic. My Dad gave me a copy in 1994, and it set me up well for a great financial future
My expectation is for 2024 that markets starts to broaden out more,” what if the interest rates go up? i have a ton of questions....can I safely invest my $800k? I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement, but don't know where to start.
It's crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy and not make impulsive moves based on short-term market fluctuations. Patience and a long-term perspective are key. You should consider a market expert to guide you.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on investments.
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Karen Cosmann
The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional.
As a homeowner, my water bill is up, my grocery bill is up, my gas and electric is up, my gasoline for my vehicle is up, my 401K has not done well. What the h…? You want Biden ? You can have him. I won’t vote for a Democrat this go around. The public unions are ruining this country. The minimum wage in California of $20 per hour will challenge small businesses. Bidenomics is not working for me. He should be impeached and everyone knows it too.
Great interview; Jeremy Siegel is always worth listening to. I would point out that his references to M2 money supply needs to be clarified that M2 has been going down and now flat but it is still above the trend that was in place before the Pandemic. There was a surge in M2 in March 2020 well above the trend to help address the strains of the Pandemic. The drop in M2 towards the previous trend has not initiated a recession for whatever reason.
I have followed Jeremy for years and in my limited business and stock market view I think that the Wharton Business School is the number one business scool in the world today. That said, although the consumer did spend more than expected, the simple fact is that now, as a direct result, the consumer debt is higher than most consumers can handle. To say that the growth rate will diminish is an understatement since our economy is now inextrictably tied to that of the economy of China and China's economy is not going up in spite of the fact they have a Harvard trained business leader running the banking system. Our government is now surrepitiously slipping more borrowed, fake, fiat dollars into the economy which will be pumping it up only temporarily. I think our country is about to go into a recession even though, and for whatever the reason, Jeremy apparently didn't want to take "that road not taken" even though will all due respect to Robert Frost, it would have ultimately made no difference whatsoever to have done so. The bottom line is that no one can predict the future economy with 100% accuracy. In short, although I disagree with Jeremy I sincerely hope that he is right and I wrong.
“I was right on some things and not on others”…. “I didn’t understand the internal strength of the economy”… Even a well respected economists can’t guess the future, but it’s great fun trying. Warren Buffet’s advice is best. Buy and hold stocks in quality companies with deep moats.
Inflation is the rate of increase in price. If it goes down the prices aren’t increasing as much. It isn’t political it is just the definition of the word.
It's the same when they say that they cut the deficit by decreasing the increase in spending. Still going up. Still borrowing more. And to top it off you have to believe the BLS numbers. Or at least believe them until they are revised.
@@vdanger7669 In this case when they talk about the deficit they are talking about the budget for a given period, generally a year. I don’t think they say they eliminated the deficit or had a surplus. They are just saying they lowered the deficit over say the last year. So of course the total debt increased.
Completely disagree with Jeremy. The current state of the economy is unduly difficult for most millennials, myself included. We've seen major increases across the board for literally everything. Talking about money, looking to invest and increase the $250k I have left without risks. Here for ideas🙏
This is why I've entrusted a fiduciary with my investmnt decisions. Many underestimate advisors until emotions lead to losses. My advisor crafted a tailored strategy aligning with my long-term goals, guiding entry and exit points for the equities I focus on. This has grown my portfolio to over $850k. My personal best so far
Thank you for an insightful piece. I respectfully differ with Dr. Siegel's illustration of an inverted yield curve when the long rate is lower than the Fed Funds Rate. An inverted curve traditionally occurs when the long-term interest rate is lower than the short-term rate. While the Fed Funds Rate can serve as an indicator of short-term rates, it doesn't consistently align. It's akin to asserting that a person carrying a lighter is more likely to have lung cancer because they might be a smoker.
Jeremy Siegel's Key Points: 2023 Recap: Siegel reflects on the resilience of the economy and the stock market in 2023, which outperformed consensus expectations. However, he acknowledges his misprediction regarding the Fed's interest rate policies. Labor Market: He notes the strength of the labor market and consumer spending, despite the higher interest rates. 2024 Economic Outlook: Siegel warns of a slowing economy in 2024, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's response to these changes. Interest Rates: He expects the Fed to start considering rate cuts in 2024, which could be incremental and data-dependent. Long-Term Market Outlook: Siegel is optimistic about the Dow potentially reaching 40K in the future, contingent on appropriate monetary policy and economic factors like AI, labor force participation, and reshoring of production processes.
Funny, I go to the tech firms and they are hiring like mad. Sure, when projects fail or finish, there are layoffs but they are hiring for other positions. KLA is offering 500 positions.
I'm 49 and earn about £2M ($2.5M) per year and save about 30% in HYSA's. I've been reading a lot of articles mentioning how worthless 'cash savings' are in this current unstable economy. Do you suggest I invest in real estate, stocks or Gold?
A consistent 5% return from the bank and US securities sounds better to me than worrying about losing your money if the stock market falls. Also consider financial advisory with the size of your budget.
Exactly, a good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisor, but over the past 10years, I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure and that's fine by me
She goes by 'Nicole Desiree Simon''. I choose to delegate my excesses to her because of her great expertise. I suggest you look her up. To be honest, almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did!!
Lower rates in what is supposed to be a great economy. This hurts the real savers, the seniors. We have never seen these rates we have now for the majority of our last century. The big problem is, our government thinks it is ok to keep printing and pumping.
These economists do not consider the effect of very low interest rates that were in effect for a few years that allowed homeowners to refinance loans. Also we have more government employees now who do not get laid off until state tax revenues really fall.
Inflation is not beat! And in regards to real estate, why does no one talk about realtors commissions? To have to pay $30,000 in commissions for the sale of a $500,000 home is insane!
It seems to me that people are missing the impact AI will have over the next decade. If it is true that AI will lift productivity by 30 percent for businesses, doesn't that mean that inflation will be a thing of the past and that interest rates should decline more than anticipated?
Inflation is the plan, it always has been. If we get 3% deflation from technology and efficiency improvement the government will print 5% to make the difference equal 2% inflation target. It’s a rigged system
They are all good at guessing. It requires no skill. It's generally just a 50/50 choice. But that's what economist get paid to do. I do my own guessing because it's equally as good.
Consumer credit debt is at an all-time high. Q1-2024 is going to be a disaster due to [1] continued spending by the Biden Administration and [2] chronically late action by the Federal Reserve. Add a divided nation and the 2024 election to the mix and 2024 looks very dark indeed.
The Fed is in a real conundrum. Leave rates high, it adds majorily to our debt. Lower them, and increase inflation. This corrupt admin wants to win, so my guess rates will be coming down
He never mentions anything about Federal government spending. The Federal government is still paying for pandemic relief in Medicaid, and they are just moving to the Affordable Care Act. The Federal Reserve can not lower interest rates until the Federal government begins to reduce the deficit spending. The high interest rates are a result of deficit spending. The Federal Reserve wants to reduce its balance sheet, but the Federal government spending is slowing the reduction in interest rates.
I wonder what impact the Houthis attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea, going to and from the Suez Canal, will have on inflation. Going around South Africa to avoid Houthi attacks is a lot more expensive.
Creating wealth entails establishing positive routines, I had only $478k to my name at 52 when I first woke up to this reality. I chose the stock market as a medium of growth, got an excellent financial advisor, Financial management is a vital subject that many avoid, often leading to future regrets.
Indeed, currently I'm managing my finances wisely and being frugal. In the last 19 months, my investments grew by 43%, adding over $500K in profits. However, I've had losses in the past month, making me anxious. I'm unsure whether to sell everything or wait.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
We brought in over a million mostly unskilled workers or educated workers with unrecognized degrees. So minimum wage workers and Uber drivers. This won’t end well.
The economy is nowhere as bad as it was in the late 70's! You had severe stagflation and even the savings and loan crisis that I had money in another bank took it over! I thought a great depression was coming then. Well, if we got out of that, we can certainly get out of this. The American economy is very resilient and those days proved it. I couldn't even find work back then And now you see signs of businesses hiring!! All data dependent and so far the fed is getting what they want. I do agree that inflation still remains sticky. There might even be a possibility that the fed may have to hike but if they do, it's not going to be by much. If data shows inflation is cooling further and jobs are cooling, then the fed has to be on their toes. Like el erian said :"you don’t want to bring the economy into recession. Hopefully it can be avoided." There is still a possibility (because the economy has been so strong and resilient) that we can have a soft landing and certainly the fed hopes for that depending on how sticky inflation is. I knew we weren't headed for recession in the past two years because the economy wasn't like the early 80's.🤭 even if we fall into recession I believe it's going to be mild. I mean jobs are EVERYWHERE and inflation is not 70's style. The only thing I'm concerned about this time that's different than the 70's is the geopolitical factors. That certainly Can shock the markets and notice the S&P 500 was in record territory prior before the invasion of Ukraine. So unfortunately that's also a factor.
We’re living through a recession right now. They literally had to redefine “recession” to avoid the label. The declaration of recession is always in hindsight. The economy is garbage and wages are even less livable than in the 70s, and demographic head winds are worse than ever. You sound old and disconnected from the facts on the ground and the shallow husk of a nation you Boomers have left us
Wow…lowering Fed Interest rates!? No chit…they already mentioned that. 2024 will show massive layoffs, consistent elevated inflation (look at supply chains and shipping issues). Consumer spending will plunge. Unemployment should be measured by the U6 numbers (takes into account unemployed that exhausted benefits) which is at 7% and will increase to over 10%. Inflation is NOT down…simply the rate is down a bit. Gas and energy prices will climb significantly in 2024. These guys are payed too much for this info.
Fed cut rates a staggering 3 times in 2019 when Trump told us economy was greatest ever LMAO..Those unnecessary rate cuts were designed to give economy an inflation producing sugar high going into election. FAILURE.
TRUMP added 25 pct of debt in only 4 years, he Had a massive Recession in 2020 because of mismanaged TRUMPDEMIC, increased unemployment from the 4.5 pct he inherited from B HUSSEIN O to a stunning 6.7 pct , had net negative job creation, had a pathetic 4 yr Avg GDP rate of a puny weak pathetic 1.7 pct despite having easy money, QE and a deficit exploding tax cut. Unemployment now well below 4 pct market at all time high household net worth highest ever no Recession, FULL recovery from mismanaged TRUMPDEMIC. Inflation continues falling. You got nothing TRUMPER.
Establish a casual relationship using econometric science and maybe we will listen to you. The reason people take medicine without fear is because its casual relationship was tested and proven
They can't raise rates. How many times has powell tried. He keeps going back to zero then starts qe. Qe5 could start first quarter. I wouldn't bet against.
Surprise, Surprise ? The Professor is Monsieur Financier ! Consumers are their own Printing Presses on Demand ! Give to Caesar what he demands ! Faust rejoices from the Underworld !
Elect a Republican get a Recession. Every GOP President since Hoover has had a Recession ALL of THEM different weak excuse each time but ALWAYS a RECESSION ALWAYS. FACT !
Presidents claim credit for economies, they have very little to do with the economy, then you get a stock market that doesn’t correlate to the economic swings to a high degree.
Man I totally disagree. I'm in agreement with the Federal Reserve holding off any lowering of the interest rate. Our Real Estate market is screwed up along with new domestic Auto sales. Lowering the interest rate right now will not bring down the prices in real estate nor the auto industry. BILLION$ were made and prices are totally out of whack "we made our bed now we have to lay in it" The real estate and auto industry has to work itself out or we'll be creating another bubble. We are getting there! We are going to learn soon how to wield capitalism for everybody. Oh and soon might be another hundred years.
Poor baby is triggered by Trump... Sad. You shouldn't like Penn because they taken billions of dollars in corrupt Chinese money into their endowment accounts and openly and blatantly discriminate on the basis of race and their admissions practices.
Data doesn’t “run routes”, I don’t need to go to a certain place in order to tell you how it’s going, that’s what data analysis is all about. Quick question, how would you go about establishing a casual relationship if I gave you the raw data? How would you find credible mechanisms? How would you prove its external validity?
Most non-academics like yourself simply regurgitate what academic researchers find. How would you go about establishing a casual relationship if I gave you the raw data?
I'm 49 and earn about £2M ($2.5M) per year and save about 30% in HYSA's. I've been reading a lot of articles mentioning how worthless 'cash savings' are in this current unstable economy. Do you suggest I invest in real estate, stocks or Gold?
A consistent 5% return from the bank and US securities sounds better to me than worrying about losing your money if the stock market falls. Also consider financial advisory with the size of your budget.
Exactly, a good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisor, but over the past 10years, I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure and that's fine by me
Nicole Desiree Simon is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I like and respect that the professor began by stating where he’s been recently right and wrong; few are as introspective and candid.
Prof. Hanke has always been correct.
Omg! FED and Janet are wondering. Wondering why labor unemployment do not rising? Janet and Congress rising limit of budget deficit. Rising and rising debt of USA budget. Means they are creating new jobs in government sector. Creating and creating. And??? And are wondering with Powell FED why labor market so resilience!
Inflation will never stop till rising limit of debt USA. USA will go with rate 5% to the 2025 believe me....
I watched Jeremy’s 2023 prediction back in 2022 and his prediction about stock market turning bullish turned out as true. I will listen to Jeremy over other economists and bankers 😊
Make sure you read his book "Stocks for the Long Run"- absolute classic. My Dad gave me a copy in 1994, and it set me up well for a great financial future
My expectation is for 2024 that markets starts to broaden out more,” what if the interest rates go up? i have a ton of questions....can I safely invest my $800k? I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement, but don't know where to start.
It's crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy and not make impulsive moves based on short-term market fluctuations. Patience and a long-term perspective are key. You should consider a market expert to guide you.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on investments.
Hope you don't mind if I ask you to recommend this particular professional you use their service?
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
No words. Simply, this man is the best! 👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Karen Cosmann
The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable you make use of a professional.
You trade with Karen Cosmann too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
COSMANN23 💯 ..that's it
Jeremy is the best
The Fed made houses and cars and food 50% more expensive in last 3 years
As a homeowner, my water bill is up, my grocery bill is up, my gas and electric is up, my gasoline for my vehicle is up, my 401K has not done well. What the h…? You want Biden ? You can have him. I won’t vote for a Democrat this go around. The public unions are ruining this country. The minimum wage in California of $20 per hour will challenge small businesses. Bidenomics is not working for me. He should be impeached and everyone knows it too.
Great interview; Jeremy Siegel is always worth listening to. I would point out that his references to M2 money supply needs to be clarified that M2 has been going down and now flat but it is still above the trend that was in place before the Pandemic. There was a surge in M2 in March 2020 well above the trend to help address the strains of the Pandemic. The drop in M2 towards the previous trend has not initiated a recession for whatever reason.
The two only economists I still listen to.
Happy new year, Professor!
Thank you. You too!
I have followed Jeremy for years and in my limited business and stock market view I think that the Wharton Business School is the number one business scool in the world today. That said, although the consumer did spend more than expected, the simple fact is that now, as a direct result, the consumer debt is higher than most consumers can handle. To say that the growth rate will diminish is an understatement since our economy is now inextrictably tied to that of the economy of China and China's economy is not going up in spite of the fact they have a Harvard trained business leader running the banking system.
Our government is now surrepitiously slipping more borrowed, fake, fiat dollars into the economy which will be pumping it up only temporarily. I think our country is about to go into a recession even though, and for whatever the reason, Jeremy apparently didn't want to take "that road not taken" even though will all due respect to Robert Frost, it would have ultimately made no difference whatsoever to have done so. The bottom line is that no one can predict the future economy with 100% accuracy. In short, although I disagree with Jeremy I sincerely hope that he is right and I wrong.
Great. Dhow! Great. Intel!! Great Presentation! You learn me something,!🎈
“I was right on some things and not on others”…. “I didn’t understand the internal strength of the economy”… Even a well respected economists can’t guess the future, but it’s great fun trying. Warren Buffet’s advice is best. Buy and hold stocks in quality companies with deep moats.
That's Siegel's advice too, backed up by 150 years of data analysis in his book "Stocks for the long Run"
Good. Show! Good. Intel!! Thank!🎈
How much of this year GDP growth came from government deficit spending and is that sustainable? That is the question we should ask
"Economic forecasters fall into two groups - those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know."...Kenneth Galbraith ...🙂
saucy quips ignore the fact that making educated financial decisions is better than being a rube.
How has inflation gone down?? Nearly everything is at all time highs.
Inflation and high prices are two different things.
@@SMTraz sure. Democrats love that narrative
Inflation is the rate of increase in price. If it goes down the prices aren’t increasing as much. It isn’t political it is just the definition of the word.
It's the same when they say that they cut the deficit by decreasing the increase in spending. Still going up. Still borrowing more. And to top it off you have to believe the BLS numbers. Or at least believe them until they are revised.
@@vdanger7669 In this case when they talk about the deficit they are talking about the budget for a given period, generally a year. I don’t think they say they eliminated the deficit or had a surplus. They are just saying they lowered the deficit over say the last year. So of course the total debt increased.
Completely disagree with Jeremy. The current state of the economy is unduly difficult for most millennials, myself included. We've seen major increases across the board for literally everything. Talking about money, looking to invest and increase the $250k I have left without risks. Here for ideas🙏
The government has let us down; just buy gold with it. Or hire/ work with a good market strategist. Youre safer that way
This is why I've entrusted a fiduciary with my investmnt decisions. Many underestimate advisors until emotions lead to losses. My advisor crafted a tailored strategy aligning with my long-term goals, guiding entry and exit points for the equities I focus on. This has grown my portfolio to over $850k. My personal best so far
@georgeh Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you?
She's known as a 'HEATHER LEE LARIONI'. So easy and compassionate Lady. You should take a look at her work.
Thank you!!!
I love his pedestrian analogy,,very funny!!!!
in professor siegel we trust!
Thank you for an insightful piece. I respectfully differ with Dr. Siegel's illustration of an inverted yield curve when the long rate is lower than the Fed Funds Rate. An inverted curve traditionally occurs when the long-term interest rate is lower than the short-term rate. While the Fed Funds Rate can serve as an indicator of short-term rates, it doesn't consistently align. It's akin to asserting that a person carrying a lighter is more likely to have lung cancer because they might be a smoker.
Feels like end of 2021 in equities. Machines clearly turned on in all 3 indexes
Any idea why the Fed gave up against inflation?
Hes the man 👍👍👍
Jeremy Siegel's Key Points:
2023 Recap: Siegel reflects on the resilience of the economy and the stock market in 2023, which outperformed consensus expectations. However, he acknowledges his misprediction regarding the Fed's interest rate policies.
Labor Market: He notes the strength of the labor market and consumer spending, despite the higher interest rates.
2024 Economic Outlook: Siegel warns of a slowing economy in 2024, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's response to these changes.
Interest Rates: He expects the Fed to start considering rate cuts in 2024, which could be incremental and data-dependent.
Long-Term Market Outlook: Siegel is optimistic about the Dow potentially reaching 40K in the future, contingent on appropriate monetary policy and economic factors like AI, labor force participation, and reshoring of production processes.
Funny, I go to the tech firms and they are hiring like mad. Sure, when projects fail or finish, there are layoffs but they are hiring for other positions. KLA is offering 500 positions.
I'm 49 and earn about £2M ($2.5M) per year and save about 30% in HYSA's. I've been reading a lot of articles mentioning how worthless 'cash savings' are in this current unstable economy. Do you suggest I invest in real estate, stocks or Gold?
A consistent 5% return from the bank and US securities sounds better to me than worrying about losing your money if the stock market falls. Also consider financial advisory with the size of your budget.
Exactly, a good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisor, but over the past 10years, I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure and that's fine by me
Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel. Since this strategy works for you, how can I contact your advisor?
She goes by 'Nicole Desiree Simon''. I choose to delegate my excesses to her because of her great expertise. I suggest you look her up. To be honest, almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did!!
Nicole Desiree Simon is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.>
Lower rates in what is supposed to be a great economy. This hurts the real savers, the seniors. We have never seen these rates we have now for the majority of our last century. The big problem is, our government thinks it is ok to keep printing and pumping.
These economists do not consider the effect of very low interest rates that were in effect for a few years that allowed homeowners to refinance loans. Also we have more government employees now who do not get laid off until state tax revenues really fall.
Inflation is not beat! And in regards to real estate, why does no one talk about realtors commissions? To have to pay $30,000 in commissions for the sale of a $500,000 home is insane!
How about the quantity of money?
Jerry knows, you ask him.
Jerry says, "it all depends on Christmas sales." Jerry has spoken, simple!
Buying more every month no matter what 💰 big money 💴 going forward $$
Wizard dudes better start learning what total pay Gov workers are getting. The private economy is done. Money is in Gov work and Gov contracts.
BS- Gov workers in STEM positions make 25-30% less than comparable positions in industry. Proven. Across the board.
It seems to me that people are missing the impact AI will have over the next decade. If it is true that AI will lift productivity by 30 percent for businesses, doesn't that mean that inflation will be a thing of the past and that interest rates should decline more than anticipated?
does it also mean job cuts if AI is that productive in the work force?
We'll know beginning in 2024.@@davidbonner3367
Inflation is the plan, it always has been. If we get 3% deflation from technology and efficiency improvement the government will print 5% to make the difference equal 2% inflation target. It’s a rigged system
We’re all running on CREDIT. No way have we seen the bottom yet….
Comparatively speaking, these are good times. 😂
They are all good at guessing. It requires no skill. It's generally just a 50/50 choice. But that's what economist get paid to do. I do my own guessing because it's equally as good.
You sound broke
@@gwills9337 You sound stupid.
Hooray! We are all going to get Rich. Dow 40k. In the future there is only Brrrrrr.
**BRRR intensifies**
Consumer credit debt is at an all-time high. Q1-2024 is going to be a disaster due to [1] continued spending by the Biden Administration and [2] chronically late action by the Federal Reserve. Add a divided nation and the 2024 election to the mix and 2024 looks very dark indeed.
Predicting the future is a fool’s errand.
The Fed is in a real conundrum. Leave rates high, it adds majorily to our debt. Lower them, and increase inflation. This corrupt admin wants to win, so my guess rates will be coming down
This administration is definitely better then another Trump one!!!
massive short-covering + weaponized FOMO = reality check 1st quarter '24
Prices may not rise, but unless wages are keeping up, inflation is not over, yet.
Interesting! Even so I respectfully disagree with the Federal Reserve and US monetary policy!
He never mentions anything about Federal government spending. The Federal government is still paying for pandemic relief in Medicaid, and they are just moving to the Affordable Care Act. The Federal Reserve can not lower interest rates until the Federal government begins to reduce the deficit spending. The high interest rates are a result of deficit spending. The Federal Reserve wants to reduce its balance sheet, but the Federal government spending is slowing the reduction in interest rates.
I wonder what impact the Houthis attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea, going to and from the Suez Canal, will have on inflation. Going around South Africa to avoid Houthi attacks is a lot more expensive.
What happens when this enormous credit bubble bursts?
Conclusion.. follow the Fed.
Was this guy right about 2023?
yes
Creating wealth entails establishing positive routines, I had only $478k to my name at 52 when I first woke up to this reality. I chose the stock market as a medium of growth, got an excellent financial advisor, Financial management is a vital subject that many avoid, often leading to future regrets.
Indeed, currently I'm managing my finances wisely and being frugal. In the last 19 months, my investments grew by 43%, adding over $500K in profits. However, I've had losses in the past month, making me anxious. I'm unsure whether to sell everything or wait.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Her name is.Aileen Gertrude Tippy. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
These historians are unwilling to concede that they don't know any more than the rest of us.
Inflation is down? Lol
Like a weather guesser
We brought in over a million mostly unskilled workers or educated workers with unrecognized degrees. So minimum wage workers and Uber drivers. This won’t end well.
The economy is nowhere as bad as it was in the late 70's! You had severe stagflation and even the savings and loan crisis that I had money in another bank took it over! I thought a great depression was coming then. Well, if we got out of that, we can certainly get out of this. The American economy is very resilient and those days proved it. I couldn't even find work back then And now you see signs of businesses hiring!! All data dependent and so far the fed is getting what they want. I do agree that inflation still remains sticky. There might even be a possibility that the fed may have to hike but if they do, it's not going to be by much. If data shows inflation is cooling further and jobs are cooling, then the fed has to be on their toes. Like el erian said :"you don’t want to bring the economy into recession. Hopefully it can be avoided." There is still a possibility (because the economy has been so strong and resilient) that we can have a soft landing and certainly the fed hopes for that depending on how sticky inflation is. I knew we weren't headed for recession in the past two years because the economy wasn't like the early 80's.🤭 even if we fall into recession I believe it's going to be mild. I mean jobs are EVERYWHERE and inflation is not 70's style. The only thing I'm concerned about this time that's different than the 70's is the geopolitical factors. That certainly Can shock the markets and notice the S&P 500 was in record territory prior before the invasion of Ukraine. So unfortunately that's also a factor.
We’re living through a recession right now. They literally had to redefine “recession” to avoid the label. The declaration of recession is always in hindsight. The economy is garbage and wages are even less livable than in the 70s, and demographic head winds are worse than ever. You sound old and disconnected from the facts on the ground and the shallow husk of a nation you Boomers have left us
You liked your own comment too? Lmao
Bring on the inflation. Down 40k make the rich richer and poor poorer. Thanks Boomer.
USA’S ECONOMY IS HEALTHY AND GROWING. AND CHINA’S AND MOST OF THE WORLD’S ECONOMY IS CRASHING‼️
Wow…lowering Fed Interest rates!? No chit…they already mentioned that. 2024 will show massive layoffs, consistent elevated inflation (look at supply chains and shipping issues). Consumer spending will plunge. Unemployment should be measured by the U6 numbers (takes into account unemployed that exhausted benefits) which is at 7% and will increase to over 10%. Inflation is NOT down…simply the rate is down a bit. Gas and energy prices will climb significantly in 2024. These guys are payed too much for this info.
Fed cut rates a staggering 3 times in 2019 when Trump told us economy was greatest ever LMAO..Those unnecessary rate cuts were designed to give economy an inflation producing sugar high going into election. FAILURE.
TRUMP added 25 pct of debt in only 4 years, he Had a massive Recession in 2020 because of mismanaged TRUMPDEMIC, increased unemployment from the 4.5 pct he inherited from B HUSSEIN O to a stunning 6.7 pct , had net negative job creation, had a pathetic 4 yr
Avg GDP rate of a puny weak pathetic 1.7 pct despite having easy money, QE and a deficit exploding tax cut.
Unemployment now well below 4 pct market at all time high household net worth highest ever no Recession, FULL recovery from mismanaged TRUMPDEMIC. Inflation continues falling. You got nothing TRUMPER.
So we just listen to you and we are good to go,, lol
Establish a casual relationship using econometric science and maybe we will listen to you. The reason people take medicine without fear is because its casual relationship was tested and proven
@@mikejewell8518😂
So trump went to Wharton and declares bankruptcy many times. Is it operator error or faulty teaching?
Well he’s rich af, was the president, and is globally famous. Seems like it was an okay education- probably better than yours
LOL ... these people are precious... @@gwills9337
Inflation was whipped overall by normalizing interest rates…..
Inflation will persist till summer
His sentiment is based on just the Xmas sales. It is all downhill now and crash in the US.
They can't raise rates. How many times has powell tried. He keeps going back to zero then starts qe. Qe5 could start first quarter. I wouldn't bet against.
That plant looks like it has grown to an all time high with 2 leaves down.
someone needs to tell him to look at his camera
Transitory Powell for Nobel Prize, who claims money has no roles in Economics?! 😂
He’s been ripping the Fed., now a little back peddling on the soft/hard landing
debt just crossed 34 trillion!
Surprise, Surprise ?
The Professor is Monsieur Financier !
Consumers are their own Printing Presses on Demand !
Give to Caesar what he demands !
Faust rejoices from the Underworld !
Imagine not warning that a starvation recession is here.
Gold keeps trading higher and Bitcoin will trade higher this decrepit grandpa living in LaLa Land debt ceiling hope crushes this elephant 🐘 market
Mr. Magoo speaks. LOL
Election impact?? Not a peep.
Elect a
Republican get a Recession. Every GOP President since Hoover has had a Recession ALL of THEM different weak excuse each time but ALWAYS a RECESSION ALWAYS. FACT
!
Not true.
Presidents claim credit for economies, they have very little to do with the economy, then you get a stock market that doesn’t correlate to the economic swings to a high degree.
The way you know something is not factual is when the commenter all caps FACT.
LOL... so true. also demonstrates severe mental illness.@@seanm3226
How come he always looks like a mafia boss !!!!
He doesn’t look like a mafia boss,,
Man I totally disagree. I'm in agreement with the Federal Reserve holding off any lowering of the interest rate. Our Real Estate market is screwed up along with new domestic Auto sales. Lowering the interest rate right now will not bring down the prices in real estate nor the auto industry. BILLION$ were made and prices are totally out of whack "we made our bed now we have to lay in it" The real estate and auto industry has to work itself out or we'll be creating another bubble.
We are getting there! We are going to learn soon how to wield capitalism for everybody. Oh and soon might be another hundred years.
Has this guy been to the grocery store recently?
I stopped following him after he missed DRYS
This guy really is fascinating and he’s very smart but then I remember Trump went to that school and it kind of wrecks it for me
Your were probably already a wreck
you may suffer TDS.
Poor baby is triggered by Trump... Sad.
You shouldn't like Penn because they taken billions of dollars in corrupt Chinese money into their endowment accounts and openly and blatantly discriminate on the basis of race and their admissions practices.
You probably shouldn’t manage your finances then because you’re thinking ideologically instead of rationally
that's GOLDEN !!!!@@bobgriffith1810
A lot of arm-chair quarterbacking going on here.
Data doesn’t “run routes”, I don’t need to go to a certain place in order to tell you how it’s going, that’s what data analysis is all about. Quick question, how would you go about establishing a casual relationship if I gave you the raw data? How would you find credible mechanisms? How would you prove its external validity?
😂😂😂 this professor has the worst calls 😂 Google search him with Kramer these two stooges
"academics" are disconnected from the real world........ those who can't do, teach
🤔
Most non-academics like yourself simply regurgitate what academic researchers find. How would you go about establishing a casual relationship if I gave you the raw data?
@@mikejewell8518 .....FYI, only amateurs quote academics
Jeremy’s a complete joke….
Old news! Shame on YOU!!!
Your wrong
Your wrong ? You are wrong ? You’re wrong, therefore you’re wrong?
If he’s wrong, prove it scientifically using casual inference not by regurgitating what you heard on news media outlets
I'm 49 and earn about £2M ($2.5M) per year and save about 30% in HYSA's. I've been reading a lot of articles mentioning how worthless 'cash savings' are in this current unstable economy. Do you suggest I invest in real estate, stocks or Gold?
A consistent 5% return from the bank and US securities sounds better to me than worrying about losing your money if the stock market falls. Also consider financial advisory with the size of your budget.
Exactly, a good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisor, but over the past 10years, I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure and that's fine by me
Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel. Since this strategy works for you, how can I contact your advisor?
Nicole Desiree Simon is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.