The Future of House Prices
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- Опубліковано 6 січ 2024
- Gary explains how to understand interest rates - and how these influence house prices.
The Trading Game by Gary Stevenson is released on 5 March 2024 in the UK.
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References:
Larry Elliott 'Most ingredients are in place for a property crash later this year' (Guardian, May 2020): www.theguardian.com/business/...
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Performed by Gary Stevenson
@garyseconomics
This guy is like your mate that you only know from raves who also happens to give economic advice.
I like his content, but at the same time I bet he knows his way around a sesh.
Literally
@@thedoveston6781 imagine that party, stuck there intrigued ranting on gear all evening like that scene in Human Traffic
He has cultivated an online persona very effectively.
Ye iz like da look in it bro. Mi Julie waz a broker, took de muney but critised the system, should she feel guilty
Speaking to friends, here in London, they are saying that houses are being sold but there are no mortgages being involved. They are being bought outright. There is a property grab from the super rich and we all need to be aware. Keep going Gary and educate all!
Yes a lot of them are tofu new builds in London and will crumble 😂
Yep, you can’t even get mortgages on the majority of affordable properties in London because they are all in high rise, ex-council flats and the banks just say no (happened to me several times). This means that only people who can get mortgages are those who already have money and the people buying the cheaper places are the people and corporations with lots of money who aren’t buying them to live in.
The rich who buy now will lose money. The fall in prices ain’t over yet. Some of them are Asian buyers who are running away from CCP in China
These blokes think they are smart but actually isn’t the case
The same is happening in Dublin. Cash buyers and just silly money being paid for ordinary semi D houses. The Government's are deliberately not building social and affordable houses to reduce supply which secures high house prices. Supply and demand.
The corporations are buying up all housing, they want a dictatorship with everyone renting.
Man. You have come out of nowhere and basically made all of the other financial youtubers irrelevant. Extremely well done. Great communication. Perfect blend of not dumbing things down and talking to us like we are idiots, but also demystifying concepts and making them understandable to a normal educated adult.
Except for the bits of history he's revising to sound on-point. His take on post-2008 price movements is total bs.
@@DiscoFang How so? They seem relevant to me.
@@zAKqkqRelevant or correct? Check the actual data on average house prices across the world and each country post 2008. His statement on them is contrary to what actually happened. Prices dropped immediately then took 10 years to recover. His statement formed a fundamental basis for his following argument. BS begets BS.
I just want to say, it is amazing there is a person like yourself that is saying the quiet part out loud . Brave and moral. Watched a lot of your videos. I hope there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
I'm a furniture remover, bottom of the market, sole trader. Within 2 weeks, of the Truss/Kwarteng budget everything just stopped! The Country had already been hammered by the cost of energy, markedly reducing business, then that budget was like the final straw! There is loads of money floating around at the top of the market, but the bottom is just flat! 25% of my business used to be moving renters but that all but dried-up with the pandemic - renting is so expensive that they're renting their own truck and doing their own moves. The market is a mess! I recently moved a young couple into a 1 bedroom flat in Bristol. Both were working but they had to pay a years rent in advance, £13,000! The real kicker was it was the ground floor of an ex-council house! The first floor was another flat and the loft had been converted into another flat! To top all off, the Chairman of Natwest, Sir Howard Davies, thinks that it's not difficult to buy a home!!!!! The people at the top are literally clueless and the very worst people to be in the positions they are in!!!! We are stuffed and I am scared!
The man on the ground is always the best econimic berometer. I hope things improve for you, maybe you can branch out into courier or clearance work to tie you over?
Bristol is very expensive.. try up north. You can buy a house for 5k in Middlesbrough
They’re not clueless, they just don’t give a shit.
This is so sad. Thank you for sharing.
The idea the house next door is 350 a month ff the council and the house your in identical in every way is 1500 in its self a a utter GRIFT THE HOING RENT RATE GOR A Council HOUSE IS THE CORRECT PRICE THATS the going price for that type and place of property thinking you can come in and charge 1590 for the exact same thing is total insanity and anyone paying it. IS IN ON IT and your just as much to blame
You are a great person for advocating aggressive taxation on the wealthy even though you are rich yourself. I wish more wealthy individuals were like you. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and fighting for those who are less fortunate!
The problem is there will likely never be enough rich people on his side to make it happen (since they are in control in our Plutocracy), until the writing is on the wall that society will pass into anarchy without UBI once AI starts MASSIVE unemployment. And even then it's not a given.
Well to tax the rich will not really generate much income at all, but it WILL kill economic growth. If it was only that simple as taxing the rich would solve our problems, well it won’t. It has been tried countless times in many many countries and it has failed EVERY time, as it pretty much guarantee no economic growth.
@@truxton1000 LOL, one of the oldest lies that has gotten footing amongst the middle and lower class.
Trickle down economics has so oft been debunked it's laughable when anyone brings it up these days.
The simple fact is, we DID TAX the rich, pre-Reagan tax cuts: economic growth was just fine.
But, stick around on Gary's channel, as you may yet learn something.
@@truxton1000 I agree with Brian; you'll have to explain why the post ww2 period growth was possible in many countries, including those in Latin America that weren't directly involved in the destruction of the war.
Do people can be trillionaires in a kakistocracy and cry pploot me, we are so needed. The producers, employees cannot do without us. They can and they will. Give up the greed and follow the need. @@truxton1000
We need more people like you mate, you have my absolute respect. Hope more people catch on your message and start acting before this situation gets worse. I wish you and your team all the best, stay safe and keep doing what you're doing. I will do my bit and share 👍
I love your clarity and enthusiasm. Thanks for sharing your experience.
When people say prices have to crash, because the average person cannot afford it, I always reply that the price of Ferraris and yahts should also be coming down soon, because the average person can't afford them. If something is only sold to and between the wealthy, what the average consumer can afford becomes a non-factor.
That doesn’t really match up because no one is buying Ferraris to resell them and if they did they’d be losing money
Exactly.
@@manuelfigueiredo8986 Pick a classic Ferrari then. Assets have different rates of depreciation or even appreciation. The point still stands, new Ferraris haven't become more affordable for the average person because the target demographic can still afford them.
That's so scary
You are right from the perspective of supply and demand law but you miss the point in the bigger picture. We are saying houses should be cheaper because we think that it's unhealthy for the society that they are so expensive. And of course from the perspective of supply and demand if you have super rich buying houses the prices will obviously grow but the questions are why they have so much money, why they are buying houses and what to do to revert this trend. After all the economy is for the society not the other way around. So the reasons are deeper than just the supply and demand game which is being seen in the surface.
Plus of course comparing Ferrari to 2-bed in suburbs is like comparing apples to pears. One is a luxury good which will always be priced above average, while the other is a necessity which, as history shows, should be affordable to the average, but suddenly became out of reach.
Gary - mate with your book, the way you speak. Your intelligence. Your passion. Your anger. It feels like you with this community is starting something y’know? I’m excited. Big up to you man x
How do you think we can effectively lobby the incoming labour party?
@@ForbiddenPlanetB who do you recommend voting for to reduce inequality?
@@ForbiddenPlanetB is your proposal, don't vote at all?
If you actually cared about the people rather than keeping your ideological politics pure, you wouldn't be advocating third party politics now. Keep the fascists out. Writing your demands on the ballot paper like anyone is listening?! I'd laugh if it wasn't so serious. @@ForbiddenPlanetB
because a vote for anyone but Labour is a vote for the Tories and anyone who thinks they are the same is lying to themselves (see the various Left politicians in the Labour party). People live and die in that difference. There is no radical socialist party waiting for your vote.@@ForbiddenPlanetB
Thanks Gary...the part at the very end is exactly what I've been saying for YEARS, but the zombies in society still refuse to believe...the rich need to be taxed MASSIVELY. This is how we improve services & standards of living for everyone.
Tax revenue does not improve standards of living. It just gives governments more money to expand the state while failing to improve services. The rich would just move somewhere else and the revenue would decrease again.
but why should you get services and living standards improved ?? What are you doing ... pay for it yourself. I've noticed a pattern where it's always tax SOMEONE ELSE more. If you want an equal society why not get everyone to pay an equal amount, in pounds, regardless of their wealth ? Do the rich use hospitals, roads and police more than the poor - so why do they pay more ?
@@garethwilliams4467 Because like the French revolution if they don't pay more society collapses, the 99% murder the 1% and take all their stuff.
@@garethwilliams4467 The most crucial metric for how well someone is doing is how wealthy they are because wealth creates passive incomes. You're not paying for your living standards - someone else is. You did not deserve that income, no matter how much cash you earned from your job.
So, if you have assets from which you earn passive income, you must be taxed more than those who don't. You didn't work for it, and that money can be better used to improve education, power and water infrastructure, and much more. Proportional taxes work better, especially if they are focused on wealth.
@@retrorampage484 Is that better than private business, which focuses on profit and cost reductions rather than providing consistent service? How the government manages taxes is up to government agencies and departments. They do well when they are properly funded and working on a good doctrine. Education and healthcare benefit the most from it, for example.
All that government funding does when used well is that government departments can focus on doing their job instead of focusing on money.
Gary has said..when Sunak changed the 2nd home owner stamp duty levy...an exemption was put in that if you bought more than 6 properties..you didn't pay the extra stamp duty on any of the properties. Jeremy Hunt went out and bought 7 properties. Why would that be designed into the legislation and for whose benefit.
I can’t say his name without using the word that rhymes with it
@@RobinHarris-nf4yv came here as thought the same
6 arm sunak. His god is Shiva. Greed.
Once the state take everything off of 'the rich' those guys will have even more money. This guy is a stooge
Stamp duty is a terrible iniquitous tax, it should be abolished altogether.
Maaaate! i'm addicted already to listening to you. Thank you so much!! just discovered you, gonnna go through alllllll of your content.
Have you actually made any money from listening to this guy ? If you listen to Warren Buffet and take his very practical advise you probably will.
Stumbled across your channel recently, quite frankly everyone should be following you. Worrying times. Cheers Gary 👍
Spot on Gary. Every time I hear someone say there is no money. I tell them that the wealth of the ultra rich has skyrocketed, and the only way to redress that balance is to close the tax loopholes and properly tax them!!
@oph0367. You are so right. I remembered a famous quote from the film Wall Street- gecko said money don’t disappear , it simply move from one hands to another, usually to the rich.
If you don't want the rich to be rich, why do you keep buying their stuff and handing them your money?
@@fredmercury1314
It's the ultra wealthy who own your mortgage, or who your paying rent too. Everyone needs somewhere to live!!!
Because most essential for living like property, energy and food are controlled by the wealthiest …many people have zero choice ?
@@fredmercury1314
@@fredmercury1314 Because the super rich have hoarded the resources people need to live. Should people just choose to die instead? Your argument makes no sense.
The problem begins with the insane influx of cash trying to contain the financial crisis of 2008. Never solved the problem, kicked the can down the road, and here we are again with a much bigger problem.
we should have LOANED that cash to the banks, and should now be asking for it back...
It was to save the highstreet lol
@@summerisonthursday5239 Eat Out to Help Out
@@summerisonthursday5239 Didn't do a very good job then did it?
They invented someone to solve that problem…… it’s called BTC
Gary is a clear but rare example of the tremendous good that intelligent and honest working-class people can do when given fair opportunities in super-wealthy professions.
Bro you’re a legend. I needed this type of content, massive respect to u
Gary, your videos are so important I am compelled to watch them multiple times. Keep at it!
Great points - definitely agree that this is going to be a huge societal challenge for the future. We are already seeing house prices / cost of living impact demographics in part (in my opinion) where individuals no longer want children, this is in part simply because many can no longer afford to have a child. Who wants to have children if they can barely pay rent / own a home? This will have 100 year demographic echo effects that will ripple on - this is definitely the most serious question of our current time: how do we deal with inequality in such a manner that we can still have a functioning society where everybody prospers.
But don’t we have birth rates well below replacement levels?
An asset can only increase in price if there is a shortfall in supply, a surplus in supply causes prices to fall.
How can you have rising demand with falling birth rates?
Our leaders are not working in our interest with a particular policy, do you know what that policy is?
@@mark-yj5sg The video talks about 5-10 year impacts, I think he is correct. There is a ton of money flowing around looking for a safe investment. Housing is one of the safest / most stable / reliable assets available for a large portfolio to diversify. Monetary policy alone (printing) can devalue currencies and push up prices for some time despite demographic changes. Demographic changes are currently responding to this new reality and we see it in the data, as you say many western countries have below replacement levels (if you strip out immigration impacts). The netherlands/ germany have been plugging this demographic gap with immigration for years. As long as immigration occurs at high rates population on paper will increase (there are plenty of people in the world) - but this is slapping duct tape on a systemic issue. The people of the UK / most of the west still are unable to afford basics such as housing.
@@__WandererI agree 100% but do you think that government policies are in place to benefit society or corporations? They will keep the steady flow of new arrivals in order to cause a shortfall in housing, an under supply of housing causes prices to rise. A new Labour government will continue this under the guise of humanitarian reasons. Don’t forget Starmer is a Davos man
@@mark-yj5sg I think government policies are a blend of principles and bribes. Sadly I think quite a bit of policy (in countries globally) is dictated, as you suggest, by outside interests. Whether this be a paid talk, promise of lucrative job, insider stock trades (half of US/UK gov are multi-millionaires - Nancy P. in the US is worth 300 million) etc. In other words I also believe the current system is skewed towards corporations, the incentives are upside down. This as you say is another reason the "machine" will keep on turning with perpetual growth until something breaks. I think things could get more extreme and quite ugly and it is the reason why nationalism is on the rise: where I live in the netherlands Geert W. was the largest party (he is quite extreme far right). We live in interesting times that is for sure, there will be quite a bit of volatility.
It's simple. Add tax incentives to have children rather than relying on immigration.
I am so glad I found you. Great content in each video. You are doing a great job. Keep doing it so our kids can hear the real true economics and life. Thank you.
I wish my economics classes at uni had this sort of analytical intuition, your clarity of thought is astounding!
It's a political issue which is too thorny for most academic institutions to cover
In my area I’ve noticed that some higher end houses did drop substantially in price in the past year. But most of these houses were in the £1m to £2m bracket. My theory is that most of these were owned by less wealthy people who had very large tracker mortgages and couldn’t afford to wait it out.
Definitely I'm looking at a house that's gone from £1m to 900k in 3 months, while £150k buy to rent family homes are still selling around £130k.
Stamp duty is theft
I’ve noticed multi generations moving into these types of homes too.
@@auntsally7790 old money & immigrant money Iive in multi generational homes, it seems to be a next step in socal mobility.
I live in a fabulously wealthy area like you. Isn't it great?
@@hmq9052 I’m not sure to be honest. If they got the deposit from the bank of mum and dad and stupidly over borrowed then yes, but if they genuinely worked hard for it then not so much. Either way it will only benefit the very wealthy as they are the only ones who have the cash to buy those properties without a large mortgage.
What happens in 10-15 years time, when renters retire and they can’t afford their rents anymore.
This is a massive ticking timebomb.
I'm watching what will happen when the UKs largest homeowner sector, the boomers, shuffle off this mortal coil. Already seeing this happen in parts of north West Cumbria...large old houses, neglected for years with 50 year old carpets sitting on agents books for ages.
The Great Millennial Revolution...this is what I've been talking about, a whole generation of lifetime renters who will not be able to retire and will die at work...or storm Downing Street. Are we just waiting for the next (successful) Guy Fawkes? 🤔
@@chameleonj90 Thankyou exactly that, the vast majority of renters won't be able to retire.
I bought my property in 2020 and will own it outright soon, so fuck 'em all! This Gary bloke touts himself as some master analyst whilst channelling Dappy from N-Dubz. His explanations are somewhat oversimplified. When the truly rich get money they tend to hang onto it. There has long been a poverty gap by which a minority percentage own most of the cash / assets. This is nothing new! Rich people are incredibly stingy. What is relatively new is how interest rates have been kept extremely low for an extended period, and the effect this has had on property prices. Since the Bank of England was created and up until the latter part of the last century the base rate has generally been nearer to 10%. Rates went down and this made people feel wealthy, but it wasn't true wealth, just borrowed wealth at low rates. They borrowed tons of cash and then of course rates went up and the bubble burst. I wonder what people thought was going to happen? I mean, which way did they THINK things would go?
@thetruth9210 only if you can afford the inheritance tax.
Gary just described what FINANCIAL OLIGARCHY IS and HOW IT WORKS
He described the cantillion effect
One essay on Cantillion effect states that it is created by Central Bank policy and creates inequality, which we currently see.
I own my own property, but have no children, I do not want to see the whole of society impoverished for the benefit of the rich elite. I totally agree that the rich need to be taxed heavier, or fairly. A start would be taxing investment income at the same rate as income tax, with a similar sliding scale ie the more you earn, the more you pay. Additionally, close tax loopholes, and abolish non-Dom status.
keep paying the taxes marxist councils are using to build a digital prison around you and your children.
@@battybibliophile-Claretaxing investment income the same as ordinary income oh thanks a lot that would work out quite well for the middle class like me instead of penalizing people that invest people need to stop sniveling get on with their lives work hard and invest
That hat is holding on for dear life
This is the most astroturfed nonsense I've ever seen
@@Rob-ik3fd to what end?
@@aboy97215 The government create these problems, which then justifies them needing more power to solve them. In this case by taxing 'the rich' - which pretty soon will be classed as anyone that can afford their own shoes. This halfwit (who can't stop touching his face in subconscious dishonesty) cloaks the source of these issues while redirecting the resentment they cause to benefit the state.
Love this guy. It's like E17 have reinvented themselves into financial advice experts 😎
How much money has this guy actually made for you ?
@@jjefferyworboys8138 numpty alert
@@jjefferyworboys8138 why ?
We need you more than we need our government. You tell it how it is with no lies and explain things so well and clear . Why can't we have people like you helping running this country 😢
Capital owns politics, why would they change a system that clearly benefits the already wealth?
@Garys Economics - please run for UK politics. It will need to be in Labour to make a difference. Oust Starmer and team up with Rayner and Streeting. Introduce a wealth tax and tax second homes and holiday lets. That would make a real difference here in UK.
💯
The name of the game is Capitalism buddy. If you help the proles, you never get a chance to play it. Only if you make the rich richer they allow you in.
@@daveuk1324I agree with you on the sentiment, however, in my opinion, even if the powers that be didn't crush him in elections, once in, he would struggle getting media attention, and he would likely be crushed by opposition being all by himself. We have seen many heroes join up in government, and fail or become homogenized with the system, nullifying the original goals. They way we need to fix this, is to all join up together and boycott, protest, say NO! We have seen that the powers that be quake in their shoes when all the people stop fighting each other and turn that angry energy towards the people that are supposed to be representing us. Occupy Wall Street was badly organized and a blurry and weak movement at best. However, we saw the authorities freaking out that this even started to happen. They went to great lengths to prevent it happening again, because it is that much of a threat. We need to ALL WORK AT THIS TOGETHER! Stop relying on elected officials to get it done. Let Gary teach us, and then we need to get up and fix it ourselves!
Another stellar explanation. Makes absolute sense what you're saying here. Good stuff and really well put.
I’ve been educated Gary thank you! Like/comment for the algorithm. This man is at the vanguard of this fight. Very few experts banging this drum. I noticed a lot of this pre and post 2008 in the fine art auction community. Prices went ⬆️ after 2008. In the comic book community also prices went through the roof tens and hundreds of thousands for high end books. The classic car market which I had some knowledge of similarly has seen exponential gains.
The passion assets have been flying, high end whisky and rums aswel.
Even comic books aren't spared 😅
Been educated?? Look at the actual stats on house prices from 2008. Gary says here that they shot up from 2008. Utter nonsense. Across the globe prices plummeted then didn't come back to 2008 levels until around 2015. In the USA it was even later. This video is littered with re-invented "facts".
Spot on Gary. I am a homeowner, but the increase in price my home has made and continues to make is quite frankly disturbing. First and foremost property must always be seen to fulfil the basic need of providing people with a home to live in. The ideology that property is purely an investment vehicle to some absolutely has to end in order to begin to tackle the inequality you talk about. Property asset ownership has to be controlled and an increase in stamp duty and council tax on "second homes" has ultimately made sod all difference.
I have a 17 year old son, I have invested for him, but I absolutely refuse to buy another property as an investment, as I can see the damage the obsession of ever increasing property prices is doing to this great country of ours.
That's come about since Thatcher wanted to make a country of home owners to vote tory selling off the social housing stock at rock bottom prices that bevan made. Also sold off manufacturing etc now breaking up nhs ruined the country
You are a good person 👍
You shouldn't be careful to not buy your son property, if he will use it responsibly and promises that he would rent it with kindness and not greed. The issues are as always the corporations and rich familys that own a lot of property all at once and make a business out of it. So we can still be conscious of our own actions, but not try to be better while others make massive profit on our kindness. It's the fault of capitalism and non-regulation of it, since the biggest lie is, that the market "regulates" itself.
Very good point unfortunately the rich won’t stop doing this
First video I've watched of yours and need to rewatch about 10 times to really slack it all in. I do want to share a practical tip for us ordinary people out there - survive through inflation by up-skilling yourselves and moving to higher paid work, whether it's employment, self-employment or starting a business. Knowledge is what takes you places. Look at Gary right here and his 100k+ subs - it's all knowledge based!
Thank you so much for this content. Since the Novaro interview that I only saw a month or 2 ago, you have helped me see the situation that myself and the rest of the country is in. But most importantly, try to improve my situation and think about how to act politically to improve the situation for everyone else. Thank you!
Do you have any concrete plans on how to effect the incoming labour/coalition government?
I really like Novara, but even if you're not a fan of the presenters, they consistently talk to really interesting people. Especially about things like economics.
Infinity migrants, infinite growth, concrete over the country
OK, this sort of thing is a step in the right direction but it still isn't going to mean much to a lot of working class people and a lot of lower middle class people who need to be aware this channel exists. I hope this gets shared a lot on twitter and insta and tik tok. I would love to see a big public conversation between this guy, mick lynch and owen jones and maybe even martin lewis even just to get all of their followers and media consumers to be having the same conversation. I think that would get a lot of attention and publicity.The more people on the street know about this stuff the better. I look forward to more videos. We need fundamental societal change and poltical revolution.
And you think mains stream media would facilitate that conversation? I agree Gary needs to get out there big time.
We have the change in Scotland but the right wing getting a grip here too helped by tory Westminster and pro little england bias msm.
Hi, I am sharing on “X” , Gary’s economics, Philip Reed @philipR8118x
your book was a brilliant read thanks Gary. have sent these as audiobook gifts to friends.
The things you are not taught in the comprehensive school system. You had a great opportunity, Gary, being educated in a grammar school. You made great observations and were able to get connected. You did not waste that opportunity, fair play to you. Sadly, not many working class get the education you had, and we get shaped differently. Massive respect to you for sharing your knowledge, which I hope will make a difference for future generations. I can’t see a gentle way to change the system, though, there’s gonna be a ruck!
If I'm understanding this correctly, Gary's saying that the traditional economic models that predict economic outcomes are outdated and defunct. Economists use models like The Long Run Phillips Curve Model, the Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply Model. They predict what will happen to GDP when Inflation rises or when there is a Supply shock (covid, Ukraine war)... what is missing fr9m those models is that the super rich who end up with the cash stimulus are essentially outside the system.
💯..
The super-rich might have a different propensity to consume, invest, or save compared to the average consumer, which can influence the overall effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies.
These models might dont fully capture the dynamics of global interconnectedness, technological changes, behavioral economics factors, and other complexities of the modern economic landscape.
In response to these limitations, economists are continually working to develop more sophisticated models and approaches that incorporate these elements to better predict and understand economic outcomes in today's world. They are playing catch up.
Put simply, they are outdated and don't reflect the real world experience of everyday people in these unique circumstances or the motivation of super rich.
The super rich don't buy most houses. They also don't lend to banks. They might buy government or corporate bonds. Banks need virtually zero capital to create mortgages in a fractionla reserve system. Economics was corrupted by the rich a long time ago, its essentially a PR trick for rich powerful people. Economics tells the lie that power and elites don't matter, only markets, this is folly.@@productionrobot
Yes and Super rich, which is okay if they pay tax on their Wealth, it is not income from a job, Wealth and Income are 2 different things
Gary talks about this in other videos, we all pay tax on income ,but Wealth is taxed differently, Gary, he explains how some rich pay very little tax on their Wealth
It's called neoclassical economics and it's been wrong from the start. Not only does mainstream economics make errors, it gets a lot of things completely backwards. Like the impact of public and private debt and how fiat/credit money creation actually works. It's a question to what degree you can model the economy at all, but if you get simple fundamentals wrong there is really no hope.
no shit sherlock, look the sky is blue above those clouds! Who knew?
My mortgage will double from £1600 to £3k in March. I have room to go from M&S Food to Lidl and that’s literally how I’m surviving despite being in the top 2% of UK earners. Not everyone can do this. Prices have to fall? I have a friend in his 30s who has saved for 7 years with his girlfriend to get a mortgage deposit together who is now totally priced out of the market due to mortgage affordability
where's my violin?
Prices need to be capped so current owners don't go into negative equity while inflation does the rest
@@shabbos-goy9407 Up ya but?
You clearly over borrowed when debt was cheap
@@sdavis7096 banks are/were supposed to stress test for affordability with rates at 7%
I feel like I learn something new when I watch Gary's videos
Thanks Gary for your insights on this! I recently discovered your channel and I find it very helpful. Do you mind telling us at what fortune do you consider someone to be rich? 🙏
I just preordered your book. Please keep up the top notch work!
It really feels like HOUSING is the ONLY REAL serious issue that is screwing over the younger generation. There are lots of problems out there about cost of living that could easily be solved if people weren't having to pay 50% of their income on bricks and water (with no asset to show for it). It is SICKENING that there are property developments in London that are investment pools and not available for first time buyers.
Housing costs are by far the biggest contributor to poor living standards in this day and age.
It is sickening. The worst thing is that high house prices have a negative trickle down effect that will eventually fuck the economy up:
1. Spending 50% upwards on shelter, plus council tax, plus bills means little disposable income to spend on "luxuries".
2. It affects people wanting to have children, which has a negative impact on the population. Less children means less able bodied people replacing older people. That equals less tax payers, less people available to do jobs and less consumers.
I'm sure there's much more negatives out there!
It's very different in Germany, and other EU countries. Rents are still affordable; houses are expensive, but most younger people don't need to worry about that. The middle class can build new houses for themselves to own because there are government incentives to do so. This adds to the housing stock while at the same time creating new homeowners from the middle class, without making the super-rich even richer. UK politicians are too stupid or corrupt to change the system.
Rents are subsidised in Germany@@decimal1815
@@decimal1815too many vested interests in keep house prices high. Whether it’s the large developers drip feeding supply and refusing to build starter homes in favour of four bed houses, the wealthy mopping up the available smaller properties and buying off plan for letting it all keeps new buyers out of the market.
I understood that perfectly. Thank you for that clear and concise explanation of wealth transfer.
This guy can do it all. Economist, trader, UA-cam, and he was brilliant in White Lotus Season 2.
Don't think much of his dress sense though.
Gary, everything you're saying about 2008 onwards also happened in 1988 onwards from Black Wednesday. Wages were relatively ok back then but since 1988 they have collapsed compared to asset/house prices.
Back then 3.5x salary for an average mortgage. It's now 9x salary for an average mortgage.
Can we all chip in to help Gary put his heating on during this cold spell? 😉
It's a difficult time for everyone involved.
@@garyseconomics 👍 great video and information as always. Hopefully a new government is strong enough to take on these thoughts.
@@jesusrevus8017 Don't hold your breath.
I think he's on about a hoodie and woolley hat on indoors 😂
@@michaelsmedley7519 Woolly hat. I’m just jealous my football head couldn’t pull it off.
Gary, I just read some of your book in the Telegraph. I was shocked by how you were treated and the effect on your mental and physical health. I'm glad you are out of that now and doing something positive with your experiences. I wish you good health.
Brilliant analysis as usual, Gary. Thanks.
Inequality is always the problem as like Gary (nice hat!) says, if the rich have money they buy assets (from poorer people) whereas if the poor(er) have money they spend it fuelling the economy. Rather than Trickle Down economics, this is Suck Up economics on steroids and it isn't gonna end well for the vast majority of us....
maybe it isn't going to end well for the rich either.......
@@junglie They have already have a plan B for that happening. Peter Thiel who is the founder of Palantir which has been given an enormous contract to modernize your NHS ( I am not from the UK) has purchased over 7000 acres in New Zealand for a bunker and a fortified compound. In other words the rich are prepared for societal collapse.
@@sammavitae114It seems a bit short-sighted though. At some point, they have to come out of the bunker.
Who's going to hand them cash then? The dead poor people..?
I've struggled for years to understand why poor people (like me ) buy stuff they don't need instead of investing it . Slowly I'm accumulating, never bought a car on credit etc just buy old Hondas instead cheap and reliable , I've always thought outside the box and it's been paying of for a while , good luck and stop buying crap .
@@paulbucklebuckle4921 Two explanations: firstly is that poor people simply can't afford to save and so therefore splurge the little money they have left over. Secondly, being poor is a manifestation of a lifetime of instant gratification and myopic (or complete lack of) decision making.
I would love to just sit and have a coffee for a few hours with Gary, absolutely fascinating!
Really? I doubt he drinks organic single origin Colombian (coffee!)..I hope he does ( oh, the taste).. but..
What coffee do you drink in your call centre?
As Milton Friedman said, inflatsion don't start where rich buying assets from rich but from money printing machines. Until rates are high and there are no printing, inflation does not soar anymore
My god I thought I was the only person on the planet who saw what covid actually was. Finally, so good to see someone else observing actual reality.
Gary is back! 💯
Go Bless you Gary. Happy New Year. Keep sharing your views, they make absolute sense.
Thank you for this insight. Your explanation makes me think of money like water, only, it flows up instead of down. It does not disappear but ends up somewhere, as you have said. So, when house prices go up, the water (=money) flows upward through all the chain of houses of increasing value to end with the super rich. The only way it flows down again is for a pumping mechanism - the government to tax - then spend the proceeds (downwards) on the country's physical infrastructure but also including NHS and similar. Thanks again.
Interesting. Just come across your channel. I'm one of those older house owning folk you mention. I get it, very well explained. Thank you.
Inequality is the Big Elephant in the room that our politicians do not, cannot seem to recognise, ignore know how to deal with.
They do recognise it which is why they push growth with mass immigration which in turn pushes land and property prices exponentially follow the money who owns the land and most of the rented property.
All our policians are stinking rich, let's take Hunt and Rishi, hunt has about 12million+ and rishy is coming up to a billion . They will never relate to you only filling there pockets
@@healthiswealth6797 Yes and Sir Kier is slumming it eh ?
Corbyn recognized it and paid the price
Neither of the big two parties will do anything, they get too much money from rich donors to upset them.
Thank you Gary for your time and effort in explaining what's happening and hopefully it will sink in .
Yeah, that's right he explain a lot through the rich..
Keep thinking about the rich. Forget politicians...
Love your stuff, man. It's refreshing to hear one of 'them' with a sense of decency.
Let me ask you the most important question and the only one that really matters. Has listening to this guy either made or saved you money ?
Just watched your video discussing AMS89K and I am very excited about this
Where can I find this video?
SPAM ALERT!
Thanks for the informative video, Gary. Are you planning on doing a video explaining in further detail who the rich are and what taxes are needed? I know you have touched on this in other videos, but it would be good to have another one on this and what it means for ordinary families, even if they own assets themselves. I know all this has been touched on in the past, but I would enjoy learning more about this and hearing a more detailed comprehensive explanation.
Thank you Gary 😊 i agree The housing market has,skewed our economy and the mindset of the nation in the wrong direction 😮
He just explained that it's the rich having too much untaxed money which is driving the house price rise disaster for working people. The rich looking to buy assets, the rich looking to lend to us to buy assets from other rich people, so the rich keep on accumulating from us both ways - through higher asset prices and larger mortgages.
Thank you 😊 the point I made is most people in other countries are not obsessed with owning their own home therefore wealth is invested not locked away for 30years 😊
@@colinbrigham8253 every foreigner I know plans on having their own home. The difference is that they can afford to buy land and build new in their European countries.
There are over 200 countries in the world. How many are you actually saying have the majority of people not wanting their own home? Are you saying there are over 100, Oliver 150 countries with people who don't want their own home?
Come on. Be honest. It's about affordability. And if it's affordable then people want their own home.
So what has changed in Britain from the 1980s where it was affordable to own, to after the 1980s and the awful Thatcher policies where it's not affordable?
1980s it was 3.5x salary for a home.
2020s where it's 8.5x salary for average home.
We have a massively destructive house price inflation scandal, driven by awful government policies to enrich the super rich. Disgusting. They should be in prison because of their conspiracy to ripoff the British people.
@@Google_Does_Evil_Now historically we as a nation strived to get a mortgage and own property Germany, france and Holland tended to rent because their was plentiful supply of public housing and fair rental laws
Found you via Novara Media. Great interviews. Subscribed!
You are such an interesting person, I learned a lot from 1 video, can´t wait to learn a lot more, thanks for sharing all your knowledge
Massive Global expansion of credit = devaulation of money = asset price rise.
Plus concentration of more and more wealth in fewer hands, especially financial institutions.
@@johnwright9372 wasn't it ever thus?
Correct it is not that the asset price has gone up, it is that the value of the money has gone down….
18:34 This guy is a stooge. Sunak printed half of all the pounds in existence during covid and now gets thanked for bringing down inflation. They created a deliberate cantillon effect, now this fake working class guy is blaming 'the rich' as a pretext for the state to take even more power.
Really insightful :) very well explained! Hope more people could hear the message
I’ve only just stumbled across Gary’s economics and wow, this is the perspective the whole nation needs. With the rich empowering themselves how do we (as in working class and lower class) stand a chance!?!?
Other than opening people's eyes to the current situation, I do hope your videos are resonating with young people and maybe even schools.
If the result of this is a greater interest in economics and (hopefully) a generation of honest economists, you will have performed a massive public service for generations to come.
Great video Gary. ‘Inequality economist’. Like it. Looking forward to reading your book!
Thank you man, great information.
Thanks Gazza. Very clear and concise.
This is brilliant. Thanks again for sharing such obvious logic
Great walkthrough as ever Gary. It’s a great presentation style where you are going through your thinking on the fly which I think is the best educational approach. What is your opinion on how all this affects the gold/silver prices and other old school safe havens if at all?
A very clear and informative explanation.
Well explained Gary just come across you by chance through the telegraph article that reported on your early years as an interest rate trader in the City. The other part was that you were from Ilford a place I know only too well . Binge watching the rest of your content over the next few weeks 🎉
Instead of taxing the rich, just make it harder to hold on to multiple homes. Increase the property tax and interest for investment property, reduce the taxes and interest rates for owner occupied property. I think it will really get solved that way.
The problem is , most politicians are real estate investors. They didn't want property investments to lose value
Agreed. Low taxation, tax breaks, loopholes and weak regulations have all conspired to create a property investment boom for the wealthy. Housing isn’t about “homes” any more, it’s about wealth creation.
Your analysis is solid- TY for sharing. I would also add that inequality will also accelerate faster in 2024 because as interest rates remain elevated in the sort term - I predict the 1st maybe 2nd quarter of 2024. With the number of ultra low rate fixed mortgages coming to an end, there will be a number of distressed/panicked home sellers; thus leading to a brief house price correction. Given the fact this is an election year and the other factors you highlight, interest rates will fall. At this point, cash buyers (the rich) will buy property at an accelerated rate driving asset prices up into the second half of 2024 - i predict they are already sat on the sidelines waiting for this opportunity. What will make this worst is if we see more stimulus being injected in the housing sector in order to win votes at the Spring buget - stamp duty, help to buy etc and tax cuts that will further drive demand.
The movie, Brewsters Millions with Richard Pryor is a perfect illustration of how wealth has an inertia onto itself.
The format of your video is perfectly suited to a podcast. This would be handy so I don't have to try and drive and watch UA-cam at the same time.
You are brillant Thank you for caring about us x
I've been saying for years that the farmers are not looking after the soil, so soon the tree will stop producing fruit. The system is short circuited and has been siphoning upwards at an increasing rate for decades. We need higher taxes, large scale infrastructure projects, larger inheritance taxes, windfall taxes and a lot more besides.
no immigrants either
You cannot tax an economy into prosperity. Its far wiser to cap wealth and cap house/essential goods prices. Higher taxes accomplish nothing as the rich always find ways to avoid them
isn't inheritance tax already high? I think some people are just good at avoiding it.
@@captainplanet1260you're wrong. You only have to look at the 1950s-1980s to see the positive effect taxing the super rich had. It led to genuine rises in living standards.
So please be honest and accurate, don't be a liar about this. It's too important.
Some of the super rich hated it. Some of them understood it was a good thing to do.
Well said, Kim.
When it come to house prices you have to consider prices changes by postcode areas to get the micro information about your house.The aggregate national figure is an average and can be skewed by certain UK regions so that metric at national level never interests me. However from a social point of view I agree that the top 1 percent benefit from most catastrophies
Stand for PM, Gary. Your public needs you!
House list prices vs. actual sales price hides the true percentage drop, although it’s far lower than I expected for reasons you have explained.
I’m looking at upgrading from a small house to family home. Supply of bigger houses is high, demand low based on buyers who can afford the houses with current interest rates. High supply vs. low demand has known outcomes.
Gary you need to see this video. “Understanding neoliberalism as a system of power” Graph at 31:26 shows the rise in U.K. inequality since Thatcher which is described as a regime change away from the post WW2 settlement.
I really appreciate the communication skill here. If he were using terms like Proletariat and Bourgeoisie I think a lot of people would immediately tune out. By talking about Ordinary Families and Rich People instead, this is an argument my liberal boomer parents might be inclined to listen to.
I definitely agree with you. People abhor those terms in explaining the realities. It is not even possible to use "socialism" or "communism", in speech because of Red Scare propaganda that created negative connotations in minds. Hence, I think it is better avoiding Marxist terminology even though at the root we talk about it.
I actually advocate the use of ' bourgeoisie', as I hope someone says ' Bourguignon ' instead.
He's talking about the super rich. If you don't know what a word means, you shouldn't use it.
You’ve just earnt yourself a sub my friend!!! Great video expertly delivered! You’re my go to man for finance from now on🙏
Thank you for your insights!
Glad you acknowledged Rishi for single handedly bringing down inflation Gary😂 18:50
Yeah except it doesn't ever happen the other ways around does it? if it goes up it's the government's fault? Not to defend this government, just to point out that governments really don't make that much of a difference as the US Federal Reserve and the IMF, but we get the illusion our vote can make a difference 😅
@@VirtualDarKness I don't think many blamed the govt for the inflation itself, more of it's lack of willingness to protect the most vulnerable in society from the effects of that inflation.
@@thomasthorpe7286I blame the government for not kicking the arse of offgem and get them to actually regulate the energy market. Wholesale prices have dropped enormously yet gas prices are going up. British Gas and Eon posting record profits. BG for example make 10x in the first half of 2023 compared to first 6 months of 2022.
Energy prices, be it oil or electricity, feeds into every cost pretty much so getting this profiteering under control would reduce inflation a hell of a lot, but the government aren’t doing it. They are useless gits, but don’t expect Labour to be better, they will give away tons, tax the crap out of the middle class and continue to let the Uber rich keep their wealth.
@@thomasthorpe7286 nah I'm pretty sure they blamed the government and talking about the more vulnerable, the "right wing" government in the UK helped more than the "left wing" one in the US 😅 but anyway.. the next elections will probably lead to a change in government and yet I'm not expecting anything relevant to change
@@VirtualDarKness It is the government that destroys small businesses, confiscates your money and hands it over to the ultra wealthy.
House prices are now down 6% from the peak in Q3 2022 in nominal terms, and 15% in real terms since Q1 2022. The peak to trough will take 3 years to play out, another 4-5% fall in nominal prices this year. When all is said and done the house price correction will have been about 20-22% in real terms. The long term trend is for house prices to rise 2-2.5% per year in real terms. We will return to trend in 2025. The main driver of house prices is salaries, always has been. House prices shot up in the late 1990s as the majority of women had entered the workforce and housing sucked up all the extra household wealth. Which is why you now need a dual income these days to buy a half decent home. You are welcome.
This is closer to the truth. The rich aren't going to everything. Why would they?
Yeah! There has to be a way to blame it on women!!
Demand increased but the real problem is lack of supply, always has been. Our population grew much more than our *affordable* housing stock. Developers build houses for profit. We need the government to build houses for people not for profit.
Subscribed..Great video thank you
What do you think about Georgism? Specifically its main prescription to help workers which is a Land Value Tax?
You're so bang on the money about house prices here. I remember speaking to my brother many years ago about this, when I had a flat and wanted to sell it to buy a house.
I was saying I wanted the house prices to drop. He thought that was daft, because that would reduce the price I could sell my flat. But I made the point that if my flat dropped 25%, I might lose £10k, but if the house I wanted to buy dropped 25%, it might be £50k.
Either way, it was only my salary that would make up the difference between the two values, and I was certainly not going to get a pay rise that would make up differences anywhere near those values.
That's good thinking, rare is the man who understands this, it seems
Rising houses prices only benefit investors and down sizers
@@lapos1979 Or people that move abroad to cheaper countries.
@@clipkut4979 yep, the same principle as downsizing.
I've been saying for a while that unless they increase the housing supply massively then there won't be a twenty percent drop in house prices like every other UA-camr seems to be predicting. Good to have you back btw Gary have watched you for a few years now, nice to have someone else dropping truth bombs again.
We don't need to concrete over more fields, we need to zero the immigration. We're full. There are no houses.
We already have to import over 50% of our food needs, and concreting over more of the arable land is insane.
The world is full of places where you can't grow food very well, and here we are concreting over some of the best farm land in the world, to house foreigners and to build supermarkets for them to work at.
It's insane.
You know France is 2.1x the size of the UK, with about the same (official) population size?
Texas is 2.8x the size of the UK, and only has 1/3rd of the UK's population size.
When will people realise that we are full..?
What about cost of living recession looming & mortgage rates aren’t low even a 2% drop they aren’t going to be like before ?
Are you actively looking to buy ? We are for months now. The sellers are forgetting their houses aren’t really worth 2020-2022 prices that’s covid -
Halifax and rightmove are a business they want oriel to think house prices are going up. Do you know land registry sept 22-23 the average house was sold for 12.5%
Media isn’t showing the truth.
We have already dropped a lot you just are looking at what you want to see.
We see same properties on for over a year not dropped and stuck there as sellers think their property is worth more. Estate agents aren’t valuers only surveyors are.
Many people can’t raise mortgages as houses they want to buy are over priced.
If your house is priced right it will sell fast if you head no interest after 4 weeks you know it’s over priced.
No viewers over priced
Estate agents always over price to get vendors.
We are cash buyers rent we aren’t buying as these properties are over priced and who wants negative equity ? .
What about cost of living recession looming & mortgage rates aren’t low even a 2% drop they aren’t going to be like before ?
Are you actively looking to buy ? We are for months now. The sellers are forgetting their houses aren’t really worth 2020-2022 prices that’s covid -
Halifax and rightmove are a business they want people to think house prices are going up. Do you know land registry sept 22-23 the average house was sold for 12.5% less
Media isn’t showing the truth.
Property has already dropped a lot you just are looking at what you want to see.
We see same properties on for over a year not dropped and stuck there as sellers think their property is worth more. Estate agents aren’t valuers only surveyors are.
Many people can’t raise mortgages as houses they want to buy are over priced.
If your house is priced right it will sell fast if you head no interest after 4 weeks you know it’s over priced.
No viewers over priced
Estate agents always over price to get vendors.
We are cash buyers rent we aren’t buying as these properties are over priced and who wants negative equity ? .
Where in my comment did I say we need to concrete over farm land for starters, just stop with the straw man arguments. Secondly we're not full not even close to it, the issue is the resources are squandered and hoarded by a select few. We need Pinnata economics, where we beat the rich into sharing with the rest of us. You do realise if you stopped immigration completely then the NHS would cease to function even worse than it is currently. Which is due to exploitation by private interests and an ageing population, you know the ones mainly responsible for removing our EU freedom of movement so now young people ish, are stuck on this god forsaken Island with a bunch of inward looking fuckwits spouting the same drivel you just have!
@@fredmercury1314
Full? 99.5% of our land is farmland, and it only contributes 0.5% of our GDP, everything you just said was based on assumption and not fact.@@fredmercury1314
Thanks Gary, just found you after watching Politics Joe
Hi Gary, just finished your book - incredible story and journey. Your predictions are spot on - so what's the trade for the next year or two as the Central Bank lowers interest rates?
From where did you get your spice rack?
As a home buyer during COVID, this is the best video I have seen on economics. Simply the facts, supported by historical data. It's right in front of our eyes, I was fortunate in that I was able to obtain a property that is increasing in value...but I am left with the bitter irony, if I ever sell and convert that money into cash....my kids will be the impoverished ones you mention. So I am 100% jacked in, outside of being a middle class slave, I will never see the benefit of being 'wealthy'...nor will my kids. I will work away my days, pay money to the banks, the government and the rich, if I am lucky I will live long enough to see my kids endure the same cycle. Such is life.
Depressing! 😩
I have heard people say so many times, "I do not read." Or "I've never read a book" as if it's some kind of achievement!!
Yet one only needs to read a couple of books to understand what Gary is saying...
Robert Axelrod's 'The Evolution of Cooperation', published 40 years ago!! Or Richard Dawkins' "The Selfish Gene", published around the same time.
The basic idea being that cooperation is better for the human race as a whole than competition. Dawkins talks about "reciprocal altruism" as the way forward for humanity.
Unfortunately, my thoughts are that we did not read and understand them forty years ago, why is anyone going to read them now???
If people had, we could have educated two generations by now!!!
I wish Gary all the luck in the world.
Thank you Gary. What about CRE? As an asset class, those prices appear to be falling through the floor today, not going up?