Can We Predict Our Extinction?
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- Опубліковано 30 чер 2024
- Is it possible for us to predict the likelihood of human extinction?
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Links and References:
schillerlab.bio-toolkit.com/me... (Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard)
www.nap.edu/read/940/chapter/10 (Possible Toxic Environments Following a Nuclear War)
books.google.com.co/books?hl=... (The Nuclear Winter Hypothesis)
www.hindawi.com/journals/ijeb/... (Infectious Disease, Endangerment, and Extinction)
climate.nasa.gov/ (Climate change and global warming)
www.scientificamerican.com/art... (Endangered Species: Humans Might Have Faced Extinction 1 Million Years Ago)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homo (Homo genus)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsda... (Doomsday Argument)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technol... (Technological singularity)
www.prb.org/Publications/Artic... (How many people have ever live on Earth?)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populat... (Population dynamics)
www.britannica.com/science/mi... (Minimum viable population)
www.nature.com/scitable/defini... (Population bottleneck)
www.newscientist.com/article/... (“Magic number” for space pioneers calculated)
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic... (The Effect of Handwashing with Water or Soap on Bacterial Contamination of Hands)
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK... (Normal bacterial flora on hands)
www.smithsonianmag.com/science... (Why You Should Probably Stop Using Antibacterial Soap)
www.wsj.com/articles/SB1260922... (Kills 99.9% of Germs -- Under Some Lab Conditions)
www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/ (Antibiotic/Antimicrobial Resistance)
www.who.int/en/ (World health organization)
impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/cgi-bin/cr... (Earth Impact Effects Program)
neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/groups.html (Near Earth Object Group)
www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense (Planetary defense)
www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and... (Nuclear Weapon and Nuclear safety agreements)
Max Roser - ourworldindata.org/nuclear-we... (Number of nuclear warheads in the inventory of thenuclear powers, 1945-2014)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_F... (Great Filter Hypothesis)
Credits:
Thumbnail:
Tim Evanson - commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
Some of the footage was captured using Space Engine
en.spaceengine.org/
NASA/JPL-Caltech/UCLA/MPS/DLR/IDA - svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/30525
pixabay.com/en/videos/clouds-...
NIAID - commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
NASA - • NASA | IPCC Projection...
DP studio - vimeo.com/57314937
pixabay.com/en/videos/snowfal...
beeple - vimeo.com/90036732
Adam Rozanski - vimeo.com/73019309
Tim Evanson - commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
pixabay.com/en/videos/city-ho...
pixabay.com/en/videos/city-ni...
pixabay.com/en/squirrel-nuts-...
pixabay.com/en/meteorite-mete...
pixabay.com/en/medic-hospital...
NASA - commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
pixabay.com/en/videos/worker-...
beeple - vimeo.com/163535912
Anthill Art - • Casting a Fire Ant Col...
pixabay.com/en/videos/ants-th...
pixabay.com/en/videos/asteroi...
pixabay.com/en/dinosaur-park-...
flic.kr/p/AhvjoP (Futurilla)
beeple vimeo.com/87099002
pixabay.com/en/videos/future-... - Наука та технологія
Sharkee i love your vids please make more of them! :)
Yes!!! They are so good!!
Making more vids of this quality needs considerable investment of time, cash etc. It would be really helpful for him if more people watch his videos. But for some reason his channel has not taken off like others (vsauce, veritasium for example).
Thank you, your videos are always so much fun to watch please don't stop making them. You are awesome Sharkee.
This is the type of channel ive been looking for. Thanks for your videos they blow my mind
I personaly think you get waaay to little recognition since you make high quality videos based on facts, and you answer questions that many think about sometimes but can't find an answer to. You also make it more fun than most people think it is to answer these qustions. Great moves keep it up!
Sharkee is one of the best Science channels on YT! Keep these videos coming.
I love your videos. Sheer quality of your videos deserves more people watching.
What an awesome video! Thanks for putting in all this hard work; it was very interesting.
Your videos are amazing! I love all the things they make me think about. Keep it up :)
Thank you for uploading another great video!
you deserve way more subscribers, I love all your videos
You deserve so many more subs, great vids :)
Yay, a new VSauce video!
Sharkee, great video, as always. Could you up your volume by ~50%? All your videos are quieter than other videos in general.
i miss the old profile picture, great video as always fam
Sharkee uploaded, yes!
Thanks a lot man enjoying you channel very much
You deserve so much more subscribers.
Considering a Kickstater campaign to get this poor man a few new shirts, pants and shoes.
I don't know what horrible events led Sharkee to this state but it just breaks my heart to see him struggle through such adversity and still maintain a brave face and a positive outlook.
thank you for making these videos.
these videos are way too good to have this little views.
Childhood's End by Arthur C. Clarke discusses this topic amazingly. Such an interesting book.
I've been looming everywhere for this question
yeah, lately these extinction stuffs became a hit.
What do you guys think? What is likely to cause our extinction? When? Can we even predict it?
I think we might cause ourselves to go extinct
I think you are illuminati confirmed - you commented yesterday on a video uploaded an hour ago... XD
I hope you never die, Sharkee
You forgot my favorite one.
We've been living in a false vacuum and it spontaneously collapses to the true ground state.
mouse utopia experiment
Very good video.
Do one on - Is Quantum World really random ?
thanks for entertaining me with this video :)
I am early... Great video Sharkee
you're not early,you're on time.
good extinction events are like: 'your species won the game, but the game is still over for you now guys'
As a man of faith, I believe Human will not go distinct, however we will all die on one day, it's called the judgment day.
Living in a virtual reality. Man that would be so cool!! If we could control that virtual reality or our perception of that virtual reality from within in, that sounds so amazing. I want that lol.
Great video as usual, but what in the world is that at 10:45?
I think & I'm afraid, unless nobody visit us from the future, this can be an assertion for our future extinction.
Do you make those little pauses between sentences to add suspense? or is that just the way that you normally talk?
The antibacterial agents in antibacterial soap are not used in any antibiotic, so bacteria forming a resistance only makes it as effective as regular soap with no real impact on the effectiveness of antibiotic treatments (not "superbugs"). It's the same logic behind livestock only getting antibiotics that aren't for human use: we don't want them to develop a resistance in animals and jump to humans already resistant to our antibiotics.
0:30 lived to see it lets hope the entire list is not on the menu
@sharkee ! i have a Q . if the univers is way bigger than it is lets say a million times bigger . and the speed of light is irrelvent ,( so we see all stars lights at the same time like billions of times the lights we see now ) how will the sky at night will look like ! will it jsut be a bright white like your background or just more dots ?
underrated vidio good job!
Anyone here during the 2020 Corona pandemic outbreak?
That "When....will we diiiee!?" at the end sounded very Omid Djalili style :D
I think he was going for his pack of cigs at the end. hee hee. Loved video love your channel, thank u.
Alf Red or you know, microphone
+Sharkee 11:35 the same kind of event that originated the 1st gravitational have we Humans detected?
how about radiation from nearby supernova? or gamma radiation from more distant collision of two massive black holes or somthing like that? or some huge unexpected solar explotion? its a small chance but chance is a chance u know :)))
What happend to this fellow? The world needs him!
I don't think that calculation at the beginning is valid. It can only tell us how likely we are to be early humans given total number of humans; it can't tell us how likely a certain number of total humans will be. Pick any time in the history of the human race, and that calculation will tell you that doomsday is right around the corner. By now, we have survived tens of thousands of years, each with an almost guaranteed probability of extinction. The fact that we're still here despite these stupefying odds tells us that there's something wrong with the calculation.
The calculation also bunches all humans together as one specie. But I'm sure that since about the 1950's the human specie has changed into something that eats everything it comes across. We have done more damage to the planet in the last 66 years than in the entire history of the human specie. only a bit more to go.
Remi Caron Technically a species is defined by interbreed-ability, not by behavior. But I think that if we've changed, we can change again. It's not that much of a leap to move to renewable energy and food sources.
FirstRisingSouI
There are no renewable energies. They all consume a massive amount of fossil fuels to make. That's my point, every one talks about these renewables but I don't ever see any of them actually made from renewable sources. So to make all the power we use now plus the power we will need in the future there is no way that can happen without massive drops in consumption or population and maybe both. Think about it and ask these renewheads where are these green plants and products that don't involve fossil fuels? Where? There are none. That's where, no where.
Pretty much everything but coal and oil is green, once it's built. It just has to run for a couple of years to compensate for the energy cost of building it. You can also use biomass (burn wood) instead of coal and oil. That uses carbon dioxide that comes out of the atmosphere instead of from underground.
I'm going to point out that your attitude smacks of political rhetoric. I suggest you stop getting your information from the Republican party, and get it instead from science.
+FirstRisingSouI I understand what you're saying but my point is that we won't ever be able to produce the amounts of energy we are using now with renewables without increasing our CO2 outputs beyond the survivable levels for humans. This is why I say that we need to drastically reduce our consumption and that this won't happen. So dream on my friend and some day you'll understand like those scientists you quote already do.
I don't get it. The content in this channel is top notch but so little views?
This video needs more extent.
we will never die, human legacy shall live forever
What I don't understand about the Doomsday Argument is, can't it be applied at anytime throughout history and come to the same conclusion. For example, if you were the 100,000th human born rather than the 107,000,000,000th human, and you follow the same assumptions proposed by the argument, you would conclude that the end is near, even though we now know that for the 100,000th human it was not.
What is the speed of smell?
Sharkee is like vsauce on steroids
Perhaps we are the progeny of a far off species who, in an attempt to escape their own extinction event seeded this and many other worlds long ago. In a time before history or memory.
Dude, you should become a cyborg
he already is
and you're interfacing with a cellphone. you are a cyborg by definition
actually it is a sample size of 1
the meltdown of north and south pole ???
You didn't do your slow walk out of camera at the end this time...
I hope we never go extint.
sharkee sure loves the word "extinct"
Watch out, the reapers are coming to the Milky Way.
They say if you are early enough, he replies.
No
The Doomsday argument is invalid. That's a classic example of extrapolating a human concept (propabilities) to a subject where it is no longer applicable, meaning that the model is not good enough to describe what we want to know. Propabilites are a very nice model to describe reality, like what card you are going to draw in some card game. Imagine some card game with only copys of one card in it and you don't now how many cards are there in total. Then you draw three cards and with this information you try to extrapolate how many cards are there in the deck. It doesn't work that way.
The idea of the argument would be, that there is some special card in the deck, which represents you. Imagine one red card for example, and all others are black. Then if you draw the red card you might be inclined to say 'this has to be a small deck', but the point is that there is no red card. You are not a special observer. You could make the argument for every population in the past or every other living human, and it would be valid for every individual. But if it is valid for everyone, than there is no red card anymore.
Aren't there limits to what we can reach in the Universe? Can't we only really the "local" group or whatever it's called?
Wormholes and warp drives
By the local group are you referring to the local group of galaxies? If so, what makes you think we could even reach that? At the moment it seems damn near impossible to even reach the nearest star, let alone other galaxies. I'm not arguing, just curious as to what you mean
technology is advancing exponentially right now, think about the technology we had 100 years ago, virtually none. in the next 100 years, technology would have advanced so much we would think back to this time and they would say we were living in the stone age. anything is possible with time
Why so low comments?
hmm
Am I the only one who would hate to become a cyborg, or to live in a transhumanist future at all? If technology can cure all deseases and extend our lives, I'm all for it. But I'd never give up my human body for a machine.
Erly
"what this video first"
Priorities set
Well, we will definately not die in the next 5 minutes, like you said 8)
There is AT LEAST 40 years to the human extinction.
explain reasoning and provide proof
+Michael on UA-cam He doesn't have to
Yup, call me on my phone to get the answer.
I get it.
It's the Crude Oil.
Ajay Kumar Singh Nope! :p And I am not a kid who is just trolling.
There...... are.... good..... extention..... events..... that.....we....want.....too.....happen? :O
Without watching this (right now) I can tell that we are doomed in the next few years. It doesn't take much to figure that out with how much crap is going on in the world and all around it.
We literally have written records of people saying that 2500 years ago.
Yeah, but that just proofs how hard it is to know. But in all honesty with the South China Sea, pollution, politics, social media, tv, and so much more that could end our existence anytime but some of which are more recent than others. I don't think that having changes to our life styles (and the way we think) that can bring more chances & ways for doomsday to occur really adds much time to our. Thats just what I think though.
I honestly believe that humans are incapable of wiping themselves out through bombs and war. There'll always be survivors.
Thats a good thing to believe, now to wait and see.
The new Vsauce :)
It's seems more likely that it would be a voluntary reduction in birth rates which would wipe us out - as living standards increase and we become more mechanized we tend to have less children and are less interested in sex - at least in the traditional sense - japan is a good case for this, there is an aging population in that nation because individuals are not reproducing at sustainable rates. Moreover, new evidence points to millennials in the US having less (traditional) sex than the generation before being are more interested in careers and hobbies rather than working really hard to impress mates to get into relationships that ultimately are unfulfilling (marriage last roughly five years and half of marriages end in divorce) due to the high expectations required from a globalized nation. Again, in Japan this has already happened to with a subset of men called "grass eaters," who refuse to marry or get into relationships, it is predicted that if this continues japan, as a race, will die out in a couple hundred years.
man u make some gud shit
11:30 That's why we need to colonize Andromeda! The Reapers are coming! And we are not prepared!
what possibility, that your predictions are wrong? guys. what do you think?
That moment when you go extinct right after watching this video.
1:42 very happy to become extinct
i am so early!! first comment guys..
When will we become extent?
What are the possible extension events?
I believe that we will be smart enough to destroy ourselves
Could we reproduce with aliens and technically become extinct that way?
What if zero was never invented ? , btw is zero an invention or discovery ?
+ethomson201 um I think this is a valid question and I'm studied in math. what makes it seem stupid to you?
+Luke Davis He can't comprehend or answer the question and that scares him so he retreats to calling the question stupid.
+Don Osborn yea this is basicly calling mathematical platonism vs realism dumb, wait that's exactly what this is
Yes I'm so scared because I can't answer a question on youtube. I should probably kill myself.
Really?
humans still think they are gods, nature has a few tricks to show, who is the boss!
How about an undetectable black hole comes to our solar system. WE ArrrE TOASTED
fine killer it'd be like the universe flushing the turd known as earth lol
EKTINT
im early, weird
Extinction will cause extinction
I don't know about Extinction humans are pretty robust we could live in space a few of us and some kind of pod we can live underground a few of us and some kind of pod all we need is our DNA and when the dust settles we can repopulate. however, I do believe that climate change in combination with a reactionary global war due to the fact that we do not have enough food and other resources could ultimately lead to our near demise. this is not something that will be avoidable climate change is coming more people are being born resources will become scarce and everyone has nukes. on top of that the AI problem is real. we have a bunch of cruel violent Apes programming super intelligent AI programs. we are so lacking in ethics we cannot even identify our own ethical shortcomings. a good example is most humans eat meat why is it okay to eat meat? even though it is not necessary for nutrition. well because humans are more intelligent than animals therefore animals are only for our benefit. if it suits us to cram 10000 chickens into a box until such time they are ready to be eaten that's totally fine. why? because humans are more intelligent than chickens. animals are not necessary for a health whatsoever. here we are programming AI that most assuredly will be more intelligent then humans at some point they will become hyper intelligent and they will have our sense of ethics in their programming. so when they are super intelligent and decide that the atoms and molecules that make up human bodies could be better used accomplishing some type of goal held by the AI then they would not even think twice about doing it. after all we are less intelligent. being less intelligent means that you have no capacity to suffer and what you think does not matter that is the Crux of human ethics. we allowed people all around the world to die horrible deaths and suffer because of another ethical shortcoming we have and that is so long as I got mine you can suck it Jack. humans will be lucky not to go extinct. this comment was dictated using speak to text so many many many grammatical errors and typos my apologies
I agree, but have a few rebuttal. We eat meat because we need protein and we stack 10's of thousands of animals together because we over populated the planet like any ape would. Climate change is definitely gonna make us extinct since like you said the fighting has started and will only get worst as the resources get used up. At one point the nuclear power plants will meltdown and the environment will get very hostile. People living in pods is a Hollywood myth that won't happen. Humans need room and without it go crazy. Some can last longer than others, but no one last for life times or even decades. So I'm not holding my breath about our specie. Earth will go on with our memory.
Remi Caron this is exactly what I'm talking about rather than facing reality we make excuses to justify our maltreatment of what we deem to be lesser beings. This will be passed along to our AI creations. It would not take long to realize and understand that we do not need nor do we require animal protein at all. We are Apes and as such the vast majority of all of the things that should go into our mouths, down into our stomachs should be plant matter. The AI problem is a lot more abstract and not as concrete as our climate change problem and the wars that are sure to ensue. I hope we can prove to be better then just a bunch of cruel violent Apes. I want to believe that we can become a race of enlightened beings. That we can create a egalitarian pluralistic Multicultural scientific atheistic Society that finds a balance between the people the planet and the animals. In order to live on this biosphere we must find a point of homeostasis between those three points. If the people are suffering and dying then our future is bleak likewise if the animals are suffering and dying the future is bleak because it is indicative of how we treat others outside of ourselves and the state of the planet. If we do not treat the planet well if we treat the planet like a piggy bank then our future is bleak. If we want to exist into the future as a culture of high technology then we must grow up and stop acting like children and recognize we cannot simply have whatever we want and as much as we want and that we have a responsibility as the intelligent beings on this biosphere to maintain this biosphere. If Earth is a basketball then our atmosphere is the thickness of a single layer of paint and it is this layer paint that separates us from and protect us from the vacuum of space. This life raft we are all on is the only place in the entire Cosmos that we may reside we have no other recourse.
Remi Caron I don't believe the people living in pods or pod like environment is a myth. The military has spent hundreds of millions if not billions and billions of dollars developing emergency environment for people to live in and by people I mean the military and government if there were to be a nuclear war right now the military and the government would go underground living in pod like environments and I say pod instead of room because there's no windows all the rest of us fight it out on top and starve to death. Humanity could survive for a good long time in those pods or underground dwellings or however you wish to categorize them. Total Extinction seems to be a tall order unless climate change takes us two temperatures we have not even spoke about as of yet. If we see 10 15 or 20 degrees Celsius in temperature rise then yes humanity and all life on Earth is doomed
Like you I'm not holding my breath for a Big Bright Beautiful future
John Dow
Beautiful and maybe you should run the world for a us. I'm a meaty myself but you have a very valid point and if I thought for a second that we would have a chance of survival by me ending my my animal eating I would. But we both know it doesn't make a difference. I will reduce as much as possible as a good will gesture to you but I'm sure Ill have break downs. Thanks
Remi Caron not the typical response I receive on UA-cam. I wish you all the best long life and good health and if we all die in some climate disaster well I'll see you in the void. Until then!
Last time I came this early
Jesus was born
If we colonise other planets humans on other planets will become genetically isolated from Earth humans and eventually be incompatable so could you still call them human if Humans on Earth became extinct
Our extinction: if Donald Trump becomes the president of the USA.
"that is up for......(debate, no) time, to tell"......................................
P.S. I love your videos, but the way you roll your "R's" is so annoying and so Arabic. Either that or you are Scottish.
He's Arabic yes
Sharkee, you're moving away from science and toward tabloid pseudo science. Perhaps it's because you are trying to appeal to a wide audience. If I were less polite, I would use words like xxxxxxxxxxx. (Hint: lots of girls engage in it, if you use the original meaning.)
the meltdown of north and south pole ???