Sir John Curtice pinpoints how the Tories fell to its ‘worst electoral performance ever’
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- Опубліковано 5 лип 2024
- “We shouldn’t be surprised given the extent of the turmoil and incompetence the voters said, hang on we do not want this anymore.”
Sir John Curtice pinpoints the moment that marked the end for the Conservative Party.
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I think the Tories never took in the disgust that the public held for Partygate - or their other scandals.
Correct certain people like to skip over that fact , they choose to avoid mentioning the tory party behaviour over the past 14 years....
Partygate was a stitch up that Boris handled badly. Elements in the Civil Service that are now in the Labour Government worked with the BBC to bring Boris down because of Brexit. All Boris had to do was to admit the parties happened because he was rewarding his staff for all their hard work with the vaccine rollout and getting more PPE. You see it's the denial the lie that gets you. Boris did himself no favours aligning himself with Extinction Rebellion and Just stop oil, also picking a war with Russia was not a great idea.
They kept trying to tell journalists (and themselves?) that it was only an issue in the “Westminster” bubble
No, they only outed the leader which gave them an 80 seat majority and plunged themselves into the abyss
Agree…. I think partygate was it
It's called lies ,corruption,incompetence, no accountability, no honour, no integrity, disgusting levels of idiocy, most should be jailed ,
Liz Truss looking as awkward as a lettuce in a pork market
Truss and her Pork Markets era was so funny. She was on another planet.
@@Anton-ji4td From another planet more like.
Truss getting to that level shows that dafties can become PM, its a sham.
And cheese 🧀
@@Anton-ji4td Planet Tufton to be precise.
Thanks Boris and Liz. You took incompetence to new stratospheric levels.
@njm3211 the incompetency of having a birthday cake and trying to lower tax respectively, the horror
@@samc179Oh ffs lol. Johnson wasn't ousted because of a cake! And Truss's catastrophic budget nearly bankrupted us - disaster capitalism doesn't work. The tax cuts were intended only for the super wealthy, but you know that, surely.
@@samc179 Yeah it was all that simple.
@@samc179
The level of tax is far less important, than the value you receive for the tax you pay.
And we are getting very little value for paying a (historically for the UK) high amount of tax.
@@samc179 Blimey those hoary old lines being trotted out again😀
A pattern of dishonesty and disrespect.
Johnson. Truss. Not a moment of contrition. They seeme to genuinely lack the mental faculties to self-reflect and counternance that they could be in the wrong. And the Tory press cheered them on. Sunak's grestest strategic failure was being too cowardly to clearly denounce them and mark a clear dividing line when he came into office.
Will they learn from this defeat? I suspect not.
The problem is that if Sunak ejected them, there wasn't anyone left to fill the gaps. Sunak even brought Boris back because even at Boris' "lowest" he wasn't as bad as Sunak, ignoring the fact that Boris put Sunak in this position in the first place. There are no leaders left in the Tory party, Labour was supposed to be rudderless for longer but the Tories have been in the wilderness for a while and will keep being there.
Correct.
I think Johnson lacked contrition because he has no conscience. I think Truss lacked contrition because sadly she is deeply mentally compromised to the point of verging on madness as Cummings observed.
@@rodbenson5879 Perfect. LOL. I think the pork markets expression is a glimpse into her soul.
It will have to be a new generation. Will they attract a new generation? Maybe thanks to Heseltine and a couple of others they will. Anyway, good riddance.
Words that spring to mind for me are 'corruption', 'incompetence' and 'self-serving'.
add "high-handedness" and "entitlement" and "indifference to voters other than the rich"
And yet 24% of people who voted thought it was OK to vote for this party.l suspect these same people would have very strong views about people who committed crimes against them but are happy to vote for those who have effectively mugged the country.lf you evade avoid your taxes you have a direct responsibility for why people cannot be treated in hospital etc etc.
HA HA HA HA HA and the Unions who pay for the Labour MPs are as corrupt weasels.
Unpaid national service was a real vote winner.
Probably tending to Ritchie Rich's peonies.
It was designed to stop votes hemmoraging to Reform and not intended to win support from the wider (younger) electorate. It is astonishing the Tories tried only to appeal to the old and right and gave up the centre ground. And they are going to continue doing it.
Yeah a real shocker that young people weren't turning out in droves to vote for that 😂
Actually when the policy was explained properly and it was made clear it wasn't mandatory I didn't actually detect much hostility to it. It didn't affect tory support or lack of it in any obvious way.
Imagine having teenage children and the sitting government announce that policy.
Boris was bloody useless.
He was an embarrassment to the British people. Someone please show him how to brush one's hair.
Completely dishonest and immoral as well.
He was a dodgy donor magnet.
What’s the betting Boris cheated on all his exams when he was a schoolboy
@@laurenceseale Boris's own brother & fellow Tory M.P. on Boris's election as Tory leader " That's it I'm done I'm outta here" & promptly resigned as M.P. his own brother as a warning that should have spoken volumes
thank god the tories are gone ...they couldnt care less about ordinary people we are just plebs to them
We'll get more of the same from Labour, country doesn't learn lol
As If Starmer's Labour give a toss about you. You people are so easy to deceive.
@@neillawonly 4% of the new cabinet went to posh schools...already a great start !!!!
@@frankgreen1663 who cares? It's the policies and agendas that matter!
Labour have confirmed they are keeping tax thresholds frozen until 2028, that's an immediate impact on the working class of this country, same as Tories and it's just the start 🤦♂️
I saw a meme where Starmer is with Sunak laughing and he has a speech bubble saying "so, then I said it was time for change and they fell for it again!"
I'm still trying to wrap my head around how in 2010 Labour got 9,552,436 votes and conservative got 8,784,915 and we had a conservative government for 14 years.. How is that democracy
You’ve got the numbers wrong for a start - the Tories got 10.7m and Labour got 8.6m in 2010
Look on the bright side imagine being in America
Right? At least you've got competence coming in. Meanwhile, we Americans are facing a choice between the frail and the felonious.
@@guydreamr
That makes your choice simple.
The US has all the West's tech industries and so has real economic growth, fracks and so became energy independent and is also food independent. Newsflash, the UK is in terminal decline, not even a smidgen of serious intellect or intelligence near political power to halt or reserve that.
True. As an Australian watching from afar, I was extremely impressed with the grace and civility of the election proceedings on the whole. Some excellent concession speeches by defeated Tories, and the democratic conventions being respected (the crowd reaction to Jess Phillips' win being an exception).
Even Liz Truss, who likely had to be cajoled to appear on stage after discovering she lost, shook her opponent's hand and accepted the result.
America, on the other hand, appears broken. And if Trump isn't beaten, and the sycophants who excused his behaviours are rewarded, I see no hope for them recovering the respect of the free world any time soon.
@@guydreamrI’d choose the frail any day. You don’t want a mad dictator in office! That man is the most despicable being!
I would add Brexit to the list of fundamental Tory mistakes
The country voted for Brexit and Labour backed it. Cameron campaigned for Remain. It wasn't really a Tory policy in the typical sense. It was not a policy until the country voted Leave.
I would agree as we lost more than we gained.
What do you personally think is different since Brexit? Not noticed any difference..
@@Zaphod-ef9yz how's life for you in the alternative universe that you exist in.
@JohnPark-xf2gq just fine I guess, I wasn't expecting an actual answer
Sunak resorting to lie upon lie upon lie, in desperation, doesn't say much for his basic morality!
I think he was more decent than his predecessors no one could have saved them from losing
@@deepblack2193 Sunak is far from decent. He has zero interest in the people of the UK, has no backbone, doesn't have what it takes to be PM & wanted the job just to trouser millions of our tax money.
Sunak said he was going to bring back trust and then put leaky Sue in the cabinet. He had his chance and blew it.
He did not understand what truth was.
Following Boris & Truss Sunak was sunk before he started as indeed pretty well any one else would be. Parading Boris just before election really was electoral suicide. Boris really outta have been hidden in Outer Mongolia@deepblack2193
I find it interesting that nobody analysed the last Tory majority like this when people like myself were totally abandoned by the political parties and we got a pro-hard Brexit Tory party who at least 46% of the electorate were opposed to
So, anger at Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Sounds about right.
I don't think that conservatives fully get it: We don't all want to be rich! The prof obviously still has a lot to learn. Perhaps we should look at which party received the most votes overall. If the conservative party didn't have so much media support, it wouldn't exist!
I wonder why billionaire news media owners would support the tories. I just can't understand why.
@@JohnPark-xf2gq And the hedge fund guy who keeps GB News afloat. What possible motivation could he have?
If you are a lifelong Tory voter feeling a bit traumatised by contributing to a Labour landslide, imagine singing Taylor Swift's 'We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together' to Conservative Central Office. Rather loud.
They didn't. They held their nose and stayed hone, claiming that all politics is rotten. Labour did not attempt to to win them round. They just didn't say anything that would frighten them to voting the only way they will ever vote.
@@ricmorris9758 Voted Reform, knowing it would put Labour in office for the next few years but needing to punish the Tories for their betrayal of their electoral mandate
I am a swifty.read most of his books.we are talking about Jonathan swift.
@@ricmorris9758 The bottom line being that the Tories made themselves unelectable. Even to their voting base. I don't know why anyone voted Conservative last week. Their record speaks for itself.
Stop putting a preview at the start of the video that last for up to an entire minute, just to replay that clip moments latter…
I agree....a little annoying !
It' so dumb
I think the Tories are finished for a generation or two.
The Tories have never before had to experience another party splitting its vote.
Reform, or whatever they call themselves next time, have a lot of electoral currency without actually winning seats. Consider if they'd done a deal with the Tories for policies in exchange for not putting Reform candidates against leading Tory opposition. Expect them to try to exploit this next election.
They have now 👍👍
True, Labour have been crippled by the Green Party and LibDems for decades. Also the SNP changed their chances for years.
@@Chalisque was thinking the same ........!
Do I need to remind conservative voters, whether they supported the Tories or Reform, that given the chance to change the electoral system to one which is more proportional, at the Referendum in 2011, it was you who lead the charge to reject that idea.
Was it the charge of the hate brigade.
The Conservatives final nail in the coffin was Mel Stride suggesting that disabled people should bear the brunt of future tax cuts.
Just when you think they can't go any lower...
Wouldn't that be the brunt of reduced spending?
Pity Stride kept his seat,horible man
Given that the Tories started hammering the disabled from the moment they got into power, I dinnae think most of England cared.
Suggesting they should be given vouchers in place of cash was completely despicable.
I wonder of Boris' late appearance made floating voters finally decide to NOT vote Tory?
Also PPE contracts scandal was a killer. Baroness mone'y
There's just too many scandals to pick from.
They refused to follow the wishes of the people, they thought the people dumb and paid the price for arrogance
Ironic that economic decline is ok. But partygate? Vote them out😂
Well that's the point really. If you are a middle class pensioner then it's not like you are ever going to need a foodbank, or be stuck on Universal credit getting sanction after sanction because your childcare provider keeps letting you down and getting you fired. Not being able to be with your very elderly mother at her last Christmas, having to attend her funeral on Zoom, and then finding out they were all ignoring the rules behind closed doors is finally going to be a real wake up to what the rest of all already knew.
Labour votes were down in the 72 constituencies won by the LDs , with large scale tactical voting by Labour supporters. similarly I suspect that the LD vote was down in many marginals taken by Labour. I know from personal experience, that many traditional Labour voters with large majorities felt empowered to vote Green I'm a little perplexed as to why Professor Curtis hasn't raised this point. Anyway fascinating as ever, and the British electorate have cast their votes in sophisticated way to punish the Conservatives. Fareham Hants excepted
Correct it's obvious the real labour support would be 38-40%
It’s a hard life for some but there are Bright,Happy Places and this is one of them.I always voted but my vote for Labour was always wasted.For the first time in History the Tory’s have been voted out in a traditionally very conservative area.
This shows that things can CHANGE.
Ditto here in Folkestone. First non-blue MP since its creation as a constituency in 1950. I'm in a very happy place, right now.
Lies and insane economics did for the Tories.
The longest Muppet Show in history.
But at least you can laugh at the muppets.kermit farage and miss piggy braverman I don't find funny at all.
Don't tell em let em work it out them selves it's the only way they'll learn
Who would of guessed you elect a liar and then he lies and cheats???? sh😮
It’s very important now Truss is out that the party doesn’t allow her to hang around and become a political dame and try and control things from the backseat. She was a disaster and should be thrown out completely from the party and a new lot has to come in and operate like a proper opposition for the next 10 years.
The big problem for the Tories is that their support amongst people born after 1990 is about 10% and people are not turning Tory as they get older.
This is just the beginning of the Tory collapse.
34% vote share in a multi-party system, as it was this time, is perfectly good enough. It wouldn't be in a two-party fight like elections of old but this wasn't that. Corbyn getting more is no use when the Tories got more on both occasions. Play the system and get into power, that's all you need to do, and then you can actually try to deliver things.
For me the fact that both Labour and Lib Dems had the brains and skills to be able to organise such targeted campaigns negates all these arguments about percentages. What's also a bit silly is if this result were the other way round no one would be picking apart the percentages, the right would be out parting in the street holding up the most obnoxious headlines you've ever seen in your life.
Crooks the lot of them.
'I nicked this but so on point' I'm sorry but this is appalling and I'm very disappointed in Starmer.
Imagine appointing experts and people qualified for their jobs with years of experience in their fields instead of cronies, relatives, sycophants, donors, men with 5 different identities for their ponzi schemes and some football hooligan you found in an alleyway.
The nerve!
I was a staunch Tory and voted Labour for the first time in my life. Whilst I still have a conservative ideology, the Tories and more recently the Tory government have brought shame to the country and Conservatism. They have ensured that I will never, EVER vote Conservative short of a miracle.
Why not Reform?
So you're the person who voted for Starmer. Starmer got less votes than Jeremy Corbyn did in 2019.
Starmer has already gone on record aiming to pledge our support to the EU, has had nothing of relevance to say about immigration which is the root cause of the NHS’s current struggle, and to top it off won’t say what a woman is so as not to offend the mentally ill. You voted for a clown in red rather than a clown in blue
why the F. didn't you vote for Reform. If you want change you have to vote for change.
I too was lifelong Tory but couldn’t vote for either Boris or Corbyn in 2019. The Tories’ behaviour since 2019 means I will never vote for them again.
Despicable behavior and low standards did the job.
.......Oh well, Rishi can at least find the time to install ‘SKY’ in every room...✊🏻
Good riddance tories,watch your backs Labour.
Indeed. If Labour don't perform the far right and the carnage that would ensue is almost inevitable.
@@user-be2il8wu6sit is practically inevitable. Labour could do the best job ever, still everything is completely stacked against them.
From Reform? I can't see their support growing much over the next five years. The country will obviously judge Labour on what they deliver. But the people of Clacton will also get to see what Farage actually does for them. Wanging on about small boats will keep a few happy, but it won't improve anything.
2019: Tories win an 80 seat majority with 43.6% of the vote giving them a large enough majority to do whatever they want
2020:
2021:
2022:
2023:
2024: Guys this is serious! Did you know you could form a Parliamentary majority without winning a majority of the vote??
It's been like this for far too long. And the Tories never complained when the system kept them in power. They just made themselves unelectable this time and Labour played a perfect strategy. PR is not perfect either, but it would stop one party getting disproportionate power in Westminster. i doubt we would have had Brexit with PR.
@@Geffo555 The Tories won an overall majority of 12 in 2015 with 37% of the vote, Labour won an overall majority of 66 in 2005, with 36% of the vote.
@@paultaylor7082 And? This is just a near inevitable consequence of FPTP. It's a bit like the popular vote in America. Hilary won most most votes in 2016, but Trump won the Electoral College. The Conservatives have still won more elections that Labour. They only get booted out when they are so bad that no amount of propaganda can save them.
Johnson 100% who would have anything to do with such a creature.
Funny, isn't it? And yet the thing that brought Boris Johnson down wasn't Partygate; it was the fact that he not only allowed his pal, who was a known sexual predator, to get off scot-free (for a while) but even promoted him! He was, apparently, joking with friends about "Pincher by name, pincher by nature", which was what all the rest of the public, if they were paying attention, was saying in any case. The thing is, that Johnson is so devoid of any moral character that he just thought that was funny.
And let this be a warning to *ALL* political parties in future. Take the British public for fools, and you'll go the same way the Tories just did......
Ha , ha . Very funny . The British not fools : very droll . They voted in Boris didn’t they; they voted for Brexit . How’s that for stupidity . Now they’ve voted themselves some utter misery . It will be interesting to see what you have to say about Starmer and his cronies a year from now . Don’t go thinking it’s getting better; it’s getting worse
Of course lots of Labour voters didn’t bother to vote because the opinion polls convinced them that they didn’t need to
Johnson should be in prison...unfortunately we no longer have the death penalty.
Being a conservative I thought Boris so appalling I voted for Corbyn in the previous election. Did I hope Boris would die when he got Covid ? You bet I did .
You can't fall from grace if you never had any grace to start with!
The second one, I hope? Tactical voting. It would be very healthy for democracy if the population felt like they had some real power, which is what the StopTheTories campaign was all about. No one particularly, “wanted,” Labour, but they just wanted to punish the Tories in a manner they could never forget.
“The natural party of government,” is a title is up for grabs. We really do need to reform our voting system, rather than share a system with no other country in Europe other than Belarus.
I am worried that electoral volatility will lead to a massive growth in votes for Reform in 2029
In my opinion the tory downfall started when Cameron walked away after losing brexit vote , and we may never have ended up with May , Jonson and Truss then !! All events start with something in the past !
Don't forget Rishi Sunak's incompetence and timidity on dealing with illegal migration. That had a major effect, people just stopped listening to him.
Jesus wept , Labour are in now , give it a f rest about Tories
Why should we "give it a f rest about Tories"? They'rethe official oppsition, quite liable to regain power at some point with or without their Rightist brothers in Reform.
I strongly favour some more proportional electoral system, so that the main strands of political opinion can be represented in parliament by separate parties, which them work out how to cooperate to give us governments backed by a majority of the electorate. I'm delighted to see Labour taking over but total power for five years on 34% of the vote? Surely we can all see that that's very shaky democracy.
@@carelgoodheir692 I agree we need PR now and then Reform would have a fighting chance of atleast 6 MPs 😂, I think the Tory bashing will end after Labour are thoroughly bedded in , they have some good policies but unfortunately no money
Aw…Can’t reach a verdict…
If we bought back the (medieval) stocks and Johnson and Truss were in those stocks, which one of them would have had the most rotten veg thrown at them by the end of the day?
It’s a tough one. But I’ve had fun imagining it.
Johnson, of course
They should count themselves lucky they aren't in prison. 👺
there are still some weirdos still voting Tory. Some fella came to my house trying to give me a leaflet supporting ann marie Trevelyan. I was astonished. Angry and astonished.
Always a joy to listen to the good sense of Professor Curtiss
The handling of the Post Office scandal....the asinine stubbornness to take advice on certain ill-thought out policies (viz. the Rwanda bill) , to acknowledge mistakes in case of disastrous policies (viz. Liz Truss), or indeed or to apologise for breaking the law (viz. Partygate, Matt Hancock the PPE procurement and other matters) or for showing contempt of the law (viz. any of Dominic Cummings) ...
Great man John Curtis
Volatility has nothing to do with British politics, otherwise we would have had heads on pikes after 'partygate'.
Stating the bleeding obvious. We know this, let's mive on and give the grown-ups a chance.. thank you!
John Curtis is wrong. It was THREE fundamental mistakes.
The third was Osborne and Cameron’s ideological AUSTERITY, which was primarily to shrink the size of government, instead of using the record amounts of cheap money to invest in productivity, energy (3 Nuclear Reactor projects got cancelled) and infrastructure.
This failure led to Broken Britain, because the U.K. was left more exposed to volatile energy prices, things weren’t fixed and Public Sector costs growing faster than the economy.
It's amazing how these tory bandits were ever supported in the first place?!
The sun has risen on a freshly laundered Labour country. Ahh, the smell of freshly baked Thick sliced Competence, generously spread with integrity !
Two weeks to flatten the curve.
By week ten they were toast
Fallen from Grace, rather incompetent people to start with? How could the Tories elect such people?
oooh, nobody knew. thanks for the "explanation".
All fptp are disproportionate
One has to be gracious in the first instance…to fall from grace which neither of these two people are…
"Could we come back at the next election" (6.15) That is what the interviewer said, no bias here!
The problems started by the complacency Partygate and then Truss’s arrogance when the markets said no.
I was surprised Sir John didn’t say that Labour voters didn’t think they needed to vote, hence low turnout.
Having that weird sound bite clip at the start is like a standup comedian giving you the punchline before telling the joke. It makes no sense.
What we also seem to forget is that it was the Tory grassroots membership that chose Johnson and Truss. They saw them as ideal for their project. Let's not forget the direction the members chose for themselves.
Britain doesn't do reverse Referenda.
Ever.
🇮🇪🇪🇺
Never rest up on the Tories.
The skullduggery within the Conservatives was a factor too.
Meanwhile Truss and Bunter, the two architects of the Tory debacle convince themsrelves they did nothing wrong, collect their PM pensions for life and relish their status as honoured guests for all future state occasions.
6:15 Love how they don't hide their loyalties - Perhaps its worth noting 'we' are not who 'we' once were...
Why does this guy always look like he forgot to put his teeth in this morning?
The Tories will be back next election, Starmer minority government. The press will never let labour have a second term governing majority.
Tactical Lib Dem voters were trying to put Labour into power. Ignoring that is disrespectful to the voters working to give Labour a majority.
It's ridiculous, utterly ridiculous, to say a 400+ majority shows the public did not embrace Starner. News flash, you don't have to have a crush on a political leader to think they will do a better job.
More Tory tears
Look at labour where they won their seats and look at the margin over 2nd in those seats. Labour might have 400+ seats but in reality, they are on a knife's edge, hopefully in 5 years, Keir improve their standing cause it means we are heading in the right direction.
Nonsense, almost everyone I spoke to, who actually vote, said they didn’t really want any of the main stream parties but definitely didn’t want the Tories. The biggest winner of the night by a actual landslide was ‘None of the above!’
@@badgoogle9938Look at Labour’s tactics - they targeted their efforts into seats that were marginal. They didn’t do very much in their safe seats. That is why the margins were small. That’s just how FPTP works, and for once Labour played it to their advantage, and that’s why they got such a majority. It is not a knife edge - provided they follow through with some sensible governance.
@@badgoogle9938 Reality is brutal, cry me a river!
It was the conservatives not controlling immigration.
With vast majority, they easily could.
Liz & Boris, "The Care Of Punts" !!!!
Labour got 34% of the vote (1 in 3) if you take into consideration those who could have voted on a low turnout (41% didnt bother voting at all ) they got 1 in 5 that's 20% of those registered to vote hardly a landslide but have ended up somehow with 63% of the seats. That result is nothing short of outrageous.
Would someone please tell me what percentage of those able to vote, simply did not.
I will never vote again for a party who brought in a leader with a liar like Boris.
414 seats are still 414 seats, as are 131.
121 not 131
There was no fiscal event, the BoE panicked the markets not Truss.
Partgate, PPE, Truss, Rwanda,
How does one fall from the sewer?
The Tories importance was inflated by Brexit and its promises off the back of it. To claim the pandemic, the fuel crisis, party gate and Liz Truss’s party backed loony tunes budget were the anomalous factors that changed the game are pure denialism. It was their incompetent approach to important issues that caused their disastrous demise.
The Times backed this lot! Never forget that
That would be a schoolboy error that I doubt he will make.
And now the public are paying for their security and transportation, I believe for the rest of their life. Even if a lettuce out lasted you. We need massive reform because the security is only there to protect them from their own citizens. Liz wasn’t in long enough to have a foreign policy and Boris is hated by anyone who lost a relative during COVID. He couldn’t stop a pandemic but, to have to apologise to the queen for party gate I have no idea how he had the front.
“Could we” come back at least it’s blatant Tory support - nearly on scale of Laura Kuenssberg although she is supposed to be unbiased.
After brixit failure one liners no policy or directions the conservative party collapsed.
'How the Tories fell to its worst...' Christ
Boris look peed off 😂
Doesn't take a genius to figure it out. Vote REFORM UK. Time for a real Brexit. FARAGE 2029.
How does the vastly profitable banking cartel experiences so many banking crises? Whenever these events occur pension funds lose upwards of 50% of their value......
Where does that lost value to to?? Are these to operands linked??