🎲 Dice Control Deep Dive - #3 - Avoiding the 7

Поділитися
Вставка
  • Опубліковано 19 жов 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 124

  • @MidAtlanticCraps
    @MidAtlanticCraps 3 роки тому +1

    John, another great video! I love the production in addition to the content. Most people have no idea how much time, research and editing you do to bring such a high-quality video... The content is great!!! I looking forward to part 3.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      Much appreciated! You know that this takes a ton of work and time to do. That's why they take me so long to get out. Glad that it feels seamless to the viewers. Keep pushing me!

  • @ChuckinDice
    @ChuckinDice 3 роки тому +1

    Great work! I’ve never seen anyone use that software to adjust the 7 variance and show the results.
    It’s also very useful to see how the trend line flattens when you step back and view it over 1000s of rolls vs. the short sessions most of us play.
    Good stuff, John.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      Yeah. If the casino makes 5 cents per person per minute all day forever but once in a while, a few people win a buck they don’t care because it all levels out over years. I want play on the other side of that!

  • @shahmatsimplex4144
    @shahmatsimplex4144 3 роки тому +1

    I play almost daily in Biloxi and this presentation on craps / dice control is the best I have seen on you tube. Great job in showing those graphs and illustrating how even if one plays with an edge, the variance can be extreme at times. Bankroll management is key to survive the swings.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Thank you. I really appreciate your viewership. What type of players are you, typically?

    • @shahmatsimplex4144
      @shahmatsimplex4144 3 роки тому +1

      @@ProCraps I always have played to roll less sevens. I have achieved a SRR thats around 6.8 over thousands of rolls. Certain sets will hit a pair of numbers more frequently than average for me, so I only need to put money on them reducing the exposure and variance. Rolling less sevens to gain an overall edge, sniping repeaters consistently to keep the negative variance in check. Unlike poker and blackjack, one can accomplish this variance control through constant practice . In the other games you are at the mercy of what you are dealt and cannot control short term variance. The most important trait is to leave the table immediately when you are not shooting well and are having an off day.

    • @healthsignalllc3456
      @healthsignalllc3456 3 роки тому

      I too play Biloxi! Perhaps we can meet and compliment each other on a table. 👍

  • @squarepair2171
    @squarepair2171 3 роки тому

    As I’m watching this you have 777 subscribers and talking about the 7. It was meant to be. Keep up the great work, John!

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      That’s amazing. Both the number and the coincidence.

  • @jimeronimo
    @jimeronimo 3 роки тому +1

    FANDAMNTASTIC John. Great info. Great format,, very well laid out.. appreciate your effort it takes to put this together. Amazing to see just changing the probability by just one extra roll boggles the mind. Let alone being able to average it further out.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Thank you! Definitely shows you what the prize is.
      Reaching for it it is great and fun … but knowing the details will hopefully go a long way toward making us all better players because that’s looks easy on a computer but is infinitely harder in practice

    • @jimeronimo
      @jimeronimo 3 роки тому

      @@ProCraps yea. You honestly do a great job. Your channel has grown on me.. I try to catch the ones I can.. Sent you a note on CN. Should connect on there a bit. Curious to see just what you can or can't run with some of these Sims.
      I've had some great success and improvements in my own roll averages and practice sessions with some practoce set up as of late that makes a huge difference in accuracy and box hit consistency..

  • @waylonswaycraps
    @waylonswaycraps 3 роки тому +1

    I love what you do brother! You're dead on the money with this one!

  • @garrison7888
    @garrison7888 Рік тому +1

    Each set has 16 combinations ( 4X4) You only have 3/2 advantage on the 6 &8 and even money 2/2 on the 4,5,9&10 with Dice setting. D.S is only 10%-15% of the game. P.S. The best odds are rolling from the Don't side and very few players know or use those sets. The Don't side comes up 48%-52% of the time. Learn how to play on Both sides of the table. Nice video Good luck at the tables! P.S John it would be interesting do do a show using the "Don't sets" and see how many games you win by sevening out after you set for the points 4,5,9,&10. We won 8/9 games using those sets on the Don't side which was a 88% win factor. Could make for an interesting show, just a though? 🤔

  • @warbaby4514
    @warbaby4514 3 роки тому

    Thanks John...appreciate all the time and effort you're putting into this series. Looking forward to hearing how the dice controllers go about their business.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      It's very interesting, for sure. I'm going to have a few of them on soon, to talk about it directly, as they can really get into the details

  • @ryanolson8422
    @ryanolson8422 2 роки тому

    This video was awesome. Liked and subscribed. Per quality.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  2 роки тому

      Thank you! Glad you got something out of it

  • @richardvidmar4175
    @richardvidmar4175 3 роки тому

    That was a really cool video! I've always wanted to see what would happen if you manipulate the appearance of the 7. Looking forward to the video in the series.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      It’s insane right? The thing is … I’ve yet to see someone do this on the regular. A high SRR doesn’t mean consistent long rolls. And that’s the trap

  • @Kenknowsgambling
    @Kenknowsgambling 3 роки тому +1

    John,
    No matter what, I appreciate the time and effort that must have taken you to pull off.
    Now, If, If, If a person could stop the 7 down to 5 per 36, then all those simulations would make one salivate.
    However, you would have to have this perfect toss over the entire time line of the simulation. So, in theory, folks may look at this as they can do it. John, I know that you know that a person, no matter how good they think they are, can not throw this perfect toss with any consistency enough to even come close to this simulation.
    The question is ( Assuming there is such a perfect toss ) How many times can he throw this toss givin all the variables? It's way more than bouncy tables and alligator walls. The variables go much wider and deeper just like the one fellow stated previously. Then more variables on top of those even.
    Now the question is not can a person throw this perfect toss one time but rather enough where he actually can drop that 7s outcome?
    Can all the stars line up for that Holy Grail toss once? Mabey. But enough to make a difference????
    However, no matter what, If this series goes the way I think you will do it. It could be one of, if not the best of its kind that UA-cam has ever seen. And for that Sir, I will give you a standing ovation. I look forward to seeing all of it.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +2

      Thanks, Ken
      And in think you’ve hit the Mail on the head. A perfect toss can get it done. But humans aren’t perfect. And the table itself is a bitch.
      The simulations I ran are computerized only to show how it *could* work if you were a beast.
      Sadly there are a select few. And fewer still that know how to bet their skill correctly.
      That’s why this series is so important. It’s not about controlling the dice on the regular. It’s about know the full story and betting with your brain not your balls.

  • @michaeldennis6959
    @michaeldennis6959 9 місяців тому

    Excellent.

  • @zaphirshamma9531
    @zaphirshamma9531 3 роки тому

    Another solid video that was well thought out, researched and presented. You were made for this!! Thank you John 🙏 “He who controls the spice controls the universe”.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Thank you! Glad this is educational … and it Sounds like we’re finding some good t-shirt slogans.

  • @roughtrim
    @roughtrim 3 роки тому

    Great episode! When the casino has a fear of losing money from "dice controllers" they will implement a plastic cup for all rollers to use on there tables. When the player makes his/her point, everyone will yell Yahtzee!!! Until then, "dark side" or "bright side", on axis off axis, hardway set or 3V set, SR1 or SL1, chopper or shake n bake... Lets all have fun and make money so we can tip our dealers! Aloha always....

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Aloha
      There’s actually a game like that called Yo!

  • @SilentShooterCraps
    @SilentShooterCraps 3 роки тому

    Sorry I'm just now catching up, but great video!

  • @marcusbmarc
    @marcusbmarc 3 роки тому

    Fascinating, great work John.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Glad you enjoyed it

  • @cryptoaddictive5008
    @cryptoaddictive5008 3 роки тому

    Now were you did the #7 come out 5 times every 36 come out rolls you had a 1,000 bank roll what would happen it you increase the back roll to like 1,500 , 2,000 what would the come out would be on the hyper drive ?

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      I'm totally going to code that up and show it off on one of the morning shows. I'm dying to know how this performs over time.

  • @CrapsDownUnder
    @CrapsDownUnder 3 роки тому

    Great video!
    There are published papers on the degree of dice control needed to erase the casinos 1.41% house edge on a passline wager. The degree of influence required is 8.031% or said another way, 1 in 12.45 rolls need to avoid the seven. Then it's a perfectly fair game, or a fair 50/50 coin flip.
    Still doesn't mean you will win but it's a better position to be in.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      It doesn't take much to flip the edge (mathematically speaking) ... doing it with actual dice is a whole 'nuther matter!

    • @CrapsDownUnder
      @CrapsDownUnder 3 роки тому

      @@ProCraps yeah personally I don't bother with dice control currently, there is enough variance in dice outcomes to make profit without it. Realistic profit targets, skilled betting and bankroll management is a more reliable approach.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      @@CrapsDownUnder definitely the number one thing everyone needs to focus on is bankroll management and proper betting. Period. Everything else grows from there.

  • @justinjdavis79
    @justinjdavis79 3 роки тому

    Awesome job John!! Thanks for sharing!!

  • @vegasdealer777
    @vegasdealer777 Рік тому

    Nice video! I really need to learn how to use WinCraps. Right now I write my own simulators in C. With your 5.5 sevens per 36 rolls, you're reducing sevens from 16.67% to about 15.28%. I"ve been running my simulator at 14.82% and also at 16.00%. At 14.82%, I can see a losing week (4000 rolls in my setup) from time to time, but I don't think I've seen a losing month yet. Some months are better than others, of course. Losing year? Not gonna happen. At 16.00%, I still have an edge, but it's a slight one. You'd have to bet LARGE to make it worthwhile. Cheers!

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  Рік тому

      WinCraps is pretty awesome. It takes a minute to get used to the coding side of it, but once you do, strategy testing, even with live rolls (you can import them) is an eye-opener.

  • @michdax7627
    @michdax7627 3 роки тому

    Does WinCraps have a stop up/down or max roll ability or to put in press/same bet scenario's

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      You can literally do anything you want with it. Set it up to press by any number of units, power press, press and pull, 5 count, 2 hits and down. You name it.
      Every strategy that I actually use, I've run through it over hundreds of thousands of rolls to see how they respond over time. I also have a "golden" set of about 300 rolls that simulates back to back PSO's, mid rolls, long rolls, and all of the golden and nightmare scenarios. This is so that I can see how my strategies respond against each other, but also which ones are best in which situations.
      Pretty cool stuff. Absolutely worth the money. And they have about 50 free strategy scripts that you can download without having to code them up yourself.

  • @mlb_zity1276
    @mlb_zity1276 3 роки тому

    Truly believable hard work from you half, thank you so much!!
    I hope that we do the same thing with different betting strategies…

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      I float between a few core strategies. I tend to be either all in on the right or the don't ... based on how I'm sensing the moment. I do a lot of treading water in the meantimes.

  • @albertc1241
    @albertc1241 3 роки тому

    Thank you sir, that was very interesting and enjoyable.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Very welcome. Glad these are coming out as somewhat educational.

  • @technician7033
    @technician7033 2 роки тому

    Aloha John,
    Can you send a link to the win craps? or is it a paid craps program?

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  2 роки тому

      You can buy it from www.cloudcitysoftware.com/
      It's only $15 ... totally worth it!

  • @old7PSO
    @old7PSO 3 роки тому

    Is it harder to roll fewer 7s or to roll more 7s?

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      I don’t t think it’s easy to get the dice to do anything. But rolling 7s is always a matter of time. Not so with the other numbers.
      I can tell you this … when I first started practicing dice control, I swear I got 10x worse and was throwing 7s every other roll.
      Maybe Bo should go back to doing it wrong!

    • @old7PSO
      @old7PSO 3 роки тому

      @@ProCraps I would contented that it is easier to use dice setting to roll more 7s So, if you roll more 7s and play the DNP with max odds you can have a bigger advantage. You only gotta hit one number - "7" Can you simulate that?

  • @tedberry1969
    @tedberry1969 3 роки тому

    Great job - very educational

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Thanks Ted, glad you’re getting something out of the series

  • @ALL4SCUBA05
    @ALL4SCUBA05 3 роки тому

    The other "unfair" issue is the payout. When "my #9" hits, only one "player"(the casino) pays me for that 9.
    Yet when the casino's #7 hits, ALL players pay him.
    Nope. I don't see Craps as a game the casino will ever get rid of.
    Everything about it is to THEIR advantage.
    I wish it wasn't so much dam fun to play.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Very true. They don't have all the fancy lights and huge shows because we're all out there winning, right?

  • @robdowns5833
    @robdowns5833 3 роки тому

    Good stuff, keep up the good work.

  • @sreed3819
    @sreed3819 3 роки тому

    Great video. Excellent info.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Thank you for watching

  • @Westtxcolt
    @Westtxcolt 3 роки тому

    Damn, John. This is some Beautiful Mind shhht right here.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      I aim to please…

  • @ottokazmer9854
    @ottokazmer9854 3 роки тому

    Excellent job...thank you

  • @davidvandyke2485
    @davidvandyke2485 2 роки тому

    The graphics are correct but the specific phrase he says "seven shows up every 5.5 times" is incorrect. In fact, that would mean it would show up MORE often and be bad.
    In fact, what he means but his verbals do not correctly say is, he is setting the 7 to have a 5.5 of 36 possibilities, or later 5 chances out of 36 possibilities, not as he says "show up every 5 times."
    In other words, everything he says is correct, but the way he verbalizes is sometimes confusing and hopefully this comment clarifies that.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  2 роки тому

      What I meant to convey was that the DI is trying to (in that example) make the 7 show 5.5 times out 36 instead of 6 (so 1/2 times less than it should).
      That's a confusing thing to conceptualize and explain.
      Thanks for helping to clarify.

  • @MrZola1234
    @MrZola1234 3 роки тому

    The great thing about win craps is you could use it in a similar manner to build the optimal betting strategy based on your influence. Also, you can play with the number of times other numbers come up. My hypothesis is that shaving the amount of times numbers that have less combos come up actually has more value than reducing the 7. Actually, most teams that have used dice control and say they have won over time did not try to fade the 7, they play no 4 no 10 and even some sophisticated betting strategies that faded the craps numbers. The reason is that reducing the number of times a 4 comes up reduces the 4 a higher percentage of the 4s total percentage of coming up compared to the same level of influence on the 7.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      I definitely use it all the time to compare and contrast strategies, but also to see what strategies I can play with side by side as a team to see how we can compliment one another.
      BTW ... Seattle fan here. Not with you at all on the Rams, but I'm all in on the Dodgers this year.

    • @MrZola1234
      @MrZola1234 3 роки тому

      @@ProCraps i went to the game this last week. The stadium was great, but the game was brutal. The cards are very good. I thought we were a bit overrated coming into the game. I think we are likely a playoff, not a superbowl team.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      @@MrZola1234 Cards are tough, but you can't stay on that kind of a roll. At some point, the tires go a little flat

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      @@MrZola1234 Let's GOOOOOOO. Chris Taylor, FTW (Literally)

    • @MrZola1234
      @MrZola1234 3 роки тому

      @@ProCraps now on to the Giants.

  • @CrapsMasterJourney
    @CrapsMasterJourney 3 роки тому

    Hey john. Good luck with the premiere. I won't be to attend. On a cruise right now.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому +1

      Fun! Enjoy that. Still a thing on my bucket list.

  • @mudslidemac9613
    @mudslidemac9613 3 роки тому

    Good stuff.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Thanks, Mac. Glad to have you here!

    • @mudslidemac9613
      @mudslidemac9613 3 роки тому

      @@ProCraps it is a pleasure to watch your very knowledgeable presentations on the game and the skill of tossing cubes.

  • @guardianking9209
    @guardianking9209 2 роки тому

    This is changing the probability of the 7 and not the variance of the 7. Digital simulation is nice but it still depends on the random function of the computer and the seed it selects at the start. That’s why you see such a wide variation. You can’t properly simulate environment. You need to ask the craps pro developer to update the software that can simulate variance.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  2 роки тому

      I believe the app has the ability to do that. I’ll check with the author and see where the switches are for that. It does have a great RNG that can be tweaked though. He’s a great developer. Interviewed him last year.
      Thanks for the thoughts.

  • @phoneman76
    @phoneman76 2 роки тому

    The simulations with the tweeked 7 appearance proves dice control doesn't work on a wide spread basis. Casinos would be bankrupt.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  2 роки тому

      Truth. One of the things I try and point out all the time is that 1% of craps players practice and try to be dice controllers and 1% of them can actually do it.
      Clearly not a scientific number there, but you get my point. That's why I think Casinos really don't give a hoot other than that it takes many us too long to get the dice moving. Rolls per hour feeds the edge!

  • @shellyott7331
    @shellyott7331 3 роки тому

    Wow amaizing 🎀💐

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      Thank you so much 😊

  • @drdontpassone8164
    @drdontpassone8164 3 роки тому

    lets see more slow mo vids of the dice bouncing in all directions after contacting the table for the first time.. . that was good.

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      That's coming next Monday and the Monday after ... takes a long time to get the video "right" for those.

    • @waylonswaycraps
      @waylonswaycraps 3 роки тому

      If you had to pick between a dice setter and a random roller on who could roll the longest without a 7 for a million dollars who would you pick?

    • @drdontpassone8164
      @drdontpassone8164 3 роки тому

      @@waylonswaycraps i would flip a coin,then choose..............their throws both hit the sharp pointed, non forgiving ,rubber pyramids at the end of the table after they throw the dice. and that doesnt even take into consideration the multiple bounces oblquely off the table floor..... very simple to comprehend ............. right ?ddp1

    • @drdontpassone8164
      @drdontpassone8164 3 роки тому

      @@ProCraps can't wait

    • @waylonswaycraps
      @waylonswaycraps 3 роки тому

      @@drdontpassone8164 I'm sure you would lol

  • @cashierscage
    @cashierscage 3 роки тому

    Heh, John… Interesting video. Listen…. There is no such thing as a Dice Influencer/Controller. There are only Controlled Shooters.
    So… what the heck is a Controlled Shooter? A Controlled Shooter is a Shooter that tosses the dice MID-AIR “ On Axis”, with perfect pitch Control & after the dice make initial table contact ( before even kissing, tapping, Caressing, Making love to the backwall) THAT beautiful, breath-taking toss is subject to randomness in EVERY form, shape, or fashion.
    THAT’S A FACT!!!
    The problem, John, is that aspiring Controlled Shooters ( 1) CANNOT follow left/right die in a Casino environment, because Casinos don’t allow different Colored dice like Controlled Shooters use during home practice. 🤣
    (2) Almost ALL Controlled Shooters tosses don’t dissipate enough energy prior to contact with the backwall.
    I mean…. REALLY…. Some of these rollouts that I have witnessed from some of these So-Called Good Shooters are absolutely atrocious!!!
    Their dice are all over the table with VERY FEW tosses lightly tapping the backwall & laying down like two flat tires!
    Yep… even on the “ live” Casino videos.
    ( 3) They overbet their bankroll by not betting correctly.
    ( 4) They do NOT know HOW to read their toss results correctly!!
    Now…. I am NOT ridiculing or singling out any individuals, but when I hear the words: “ Explosion, Implosion, etc…. It simply tickles me to no end! 😂
    Isn’t that what dice do NATURALLY? ( Regardless of HOW SKILLED you THINK the toss might be?) They twist, turn, flip, flop, & go through several gyrations before coming to a complete Stop.
    Slow motion video proves it beyond a reasonable doubt.
    A shooter MUST know EXACTLY what each & every roll reveals in order to extend a hand beyond probability & TRUST ME ON THIS….. it’s NOT what is being currently taught.
    I’ll start each & every So-Called Skilled Shooter with THIS… Dice only stay “ On Axis” roughly 2-3% of the time after contact with the backwall, NO MATTER how expertly, or softly that you tap that backwall.
    Ya have to think outside of the Box & detach from what was/is conventionally taught about Dice Influencing during its infancy.
    The Casinos don’t fear Dice Control because most Shooters ( even the So-Called GREAT ones) don’t really know what their toss results are telling them!
    They are QUICK to holler “ On Axis” when it only exists 2-3% of the time. Sad, but true!
    However, I’m just a messenger.
    I even had one guy tell me that I was spreading hate, & NOT love, JUST BECAUSE my suggestion was that it’s best for a TRULY Controlled Shooter to play “ Lone Wolf” Monday-Wednesdays when the tables aren’t crowded! 😝
    Keep em 🎲🎲 Married!

    • @ProCraps
      @ProCraps  3 роки тому

      I love your energy and passion on this subject!