I had a veey nice trade with ZROZ when interest rates fell. Then moved this over to silver. This did in total almost as well as BTC - with risk-off assets
@BitcoinStrategy I’ve been following you for a while now, and what I originally liked about your channel was that you were a realist and provided a traditional finance perspective to things (given your traditional finance background). This was a lot different to the other crypto gurus who only talk drivel and provide nothing but noise to the crypto space. But I slowly feel like your channel is turning into that, most of your content is on useless alt coin hype to promote your subscription space and when you do post a video on the crypto market as whole, it’s just regurgitated information from your previous videos. Also your outlook videos always come off as fear mongering rather than trying to tell viewers/ investors to be rational, which I thought was the main purpose of the content posted on this channel in the first place.
I dont think it's very fear mongering to point out that BTC has never seen a real crash - and that stock valuations doubled during BTVs existence. And that btc is now more than ever correlated to stocks. I do the altcoin videos because they drive the growth of the channel. Chances are, the first video you watched on this channel was an altcoin video as well
Taxes and mgt fees to cancel dividends out???? Check your financial math, div yield of SPX may be around 1.5 to 2% p.a. , when withholding tax is 30% p.a. and mgt fee by any ETF provider tracking SPX is about 5 to 7 basis points!
If you buy smart like vanguard - and if you always sell after 1 year, you are right. Outside of those ideal assumptions - say you trade more actively or you buy actively managed funds - it's not that clear anymore
Alts have been drastically underperforming, I’m going to sell mine at less than I’d originally planned unless things start looking more bullish, waiting until spring, then selling, potentially get back in for the autumn if things start moving again..
but the price has never fallen very far below the cost to mine. Typically, the price pumps well above the cost to mine during the post-halving year then it falls maybe 5% below after the crash, but it doesn't deviate too far from the cost to mine. The current cost to mine is above 80k USD since it doubled on the way to the halving.
Interesting point. I believe the cost to mine could go down as well of the price stays low for long enough? Since some miners will have to turn off the rigs and the hash rate drops?
You have to subtract the percentage population growth and expansion of supply of scarce desirable resources. If the supply of education, for example, goes up, it offsets the monetary inflation. The valid increase of money supply is to balance the goods and services to keep prices stable. If money becomes more valuable people will stop spending it. No reason to invest in anything real if your pieces of paper are gaining value.
Interesting thought. I am not even arguing that we should get rid of inflation as a society. But for the individual, it's definitely important not to lose too much money from this hidden tax
How would that happen? Bitcoin is not a company. Companies holding Bitcoin might be part of the Nasdaq. But I dont see how Bitcoin would become part of the index directly
@@BitcoinStrategy you misunderstand me-I think. I didn't say it would be directly a part of it. $MSTR is $BTC exposure for those that invest in it so if it's added to the QQQ index will that not be exposure for those that invest in the Nasdaq?
...mal eine GAAAANZ andere Frage: du hast in der Vergangenheit oft den Rainbow-Chart (BTC) herangezogen. Wenn man den aber verlängert würde der negativ! 🤨 Ergebnis: er muss irgendwann (nach oben) durchbrechen... klar ist immer die Frage wie man die "Linie" zieht aber....🤔
Diese Trendcharts sind natürlich mit Vorsicht zu genießen - perfekt halten sie sicher nicht. Ich denke trotzdem, dass sie zumindest einen Anhaltspunkt geben können, ob wir derzeit eher billig oder Teuer sind. Solange Bitcoin nicht abgelöst wird, wird der Preis sicher weiter steigen. Das Angebot ist limitiert
Well, there are whales that are still buying in the red market… the issue is that everybody tries to predict the Btc price… I am here in this channel for 2 years or even more and also following other channels… Result is that there is no crystal ball, and majority do wrong predictions And crises, a long time that I hear it… we are already living it after war in Europe, so I am not so sure of that Gerald
It depends on how you do the fitting. Do you take the top prices? Or do you attempt a log regression. Injust connected tops and bottoms with a curved line
Of couse….ANYTHNG….COULD happen HOWEVER….it has NEVER looked so POSITIVE for crypto and bitcoin as a (currently tiny) asset class…NEVER Correlations fluctuate from 1 to 0 to 1 without ANY “reasoning”. I am SO GLAD that I am not a trader “stressing out” about short-term price movements I am SO GLAD that I do not rely on trading for my living Lastly, the macro FUD and NEGATIVITY can be influenced by where one lives and those around you I take it that you may be in Europe….perhaps close to Germany…things do not look great there In the US, however….business, economy and markets are LOOKING FORWARD to Trump as the idea is that whatever he does will AT LEAST be good in the long-term AND maybe even the short-term
There are many ways to be risk-off. It depends how much money you have to deploy. If its a few minths of income only - cash is enough. If its many years of income - your own house is probably a good bet as well
You want to hedge in the event of a major crash, yet you talk down long term government bonds. If the market tanks, the Feds go to 0% interest rates in the blink of an eye.
Don't you think the shiller PE ratio is high because inflation expectations for next 20 years are super high ? Monetary expansion will be so big, that a 40 PE ratio today, is like a 10 PE ratio in the 1990s.
That's an interesting thought. How do you come to the conclusion that the market expects hugh long-term inflation rates? What numbers do you derive this from?
@@BitcoinStrategy Since the 2007 crisis the fiat system has broken down, the buying power of fiat ( interest rate of short term bonds + increase in productivity) is not compensating for the debasement anymore. Since Covid, we are seeing an even steeper trend that is probably due to the high amount of interest needed to pay on the debt. We have a higher "official" long term inflation foretasted even by government. Real inflation is at least 50% more than the official one. By my calculations this difference between the "real" inflation and the "free market" buying power return, is much higher than it was compared to history. This extra 2-5% per year, makes a huge difference when doing a Free cash flow valuation of stocks. That's where I'm coming with the fact that At 1% loss of buying power/year a 20 PE ratio is equal at a 40 PE ratio with a 7% loss of buying power. That's where i'm thinking that at 35 PE ratio stocks ARE slightly expensive, but when compared to the expected loss of Purchasing power over the next 10 years, we are very far from bubble territory.
Partially. My cash / metals position is larger than in has ever been. I still own crypto - but lass as a fraction of overall wealth compared to 1 year ago
So you assume no alt season this cycle? Even if they go down short term *if* they do pop they do it quick. It seems probable based on past cycles, why deviate?
You r always such a bear. We r still in a bull mkt. I will throw this at ur face when BTC reaches another ATH. Everyone knows when to sell. Stop fudding
![Bitcoin [BTC]: Key Signal Happening In Crypto.](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/j2I3XTXchWA/mqdefault.jpg)
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When BTC was at 60k you praised your bonds, and now everything has melt up but bonds, you ditch them
I had a veey nice trade with ZROZ when interest rates fell. Then moved this over to silver. This did in total almost as well as BTC - with risk-off assets
@@BitcoinStrategy not what you seem to say in your september 19th video
@@BitcoinStrategy a bond is not "risk-off"
@@BitcoinStrategy getting all creative instead of just getting a 70% increase from BTC... Nice (sarcasm font).
he is obsessed with out thinking the market and sometimes it seems to work
YOU FORGOT TO ADD ONE THING. THE TRUMP TRAIN. HE WILL PUSH THINGS HIGHER. MUCH HIGHER
Maybe 🤔 but there is definitely a lot over (overlooked) risk in the market as well
Hahahaha
@BitcoinStrategy yep, great vid, very few talking about this
It's already priced in
Lolololol...no.
meanwhile blackrock is still buying bitcoin
Blackrocks Customers buying. Not Blackrock itself. They dont care about price. They make money with fees.
They just sold the most they ever have in their history of buying and selling.
@BitcoinStrategy I’ve been following you for a while now, and what I originally liked about your channel was that you were a realist and provided a traditional finance perspective to things (given your traditional finance background). This was a lot different to the other crypto gurus who only talk drivel and provide nothing but noise to the crypto space. But I slowly feel like your channel is turning into that, most of your content is on useless alt coin hype to promote your subscription space and when you do post a video on the crypto market as whole, it’s just regurgitated information from your previous videos. Also your outlook videos always come off as fear mongering rather than trying to tell viewers/ investors to be rational, which I thought was the main purpose of the content posted on this channel in the first place.
He needs to play the algo ser
@@D3RHiROstop making excuses for people you don't even know
I dont think it's very fear mongering to point out that BTC has never seen a real crash - and that stock valuations doubled during BTVs existence. And that btc is now more than ever correlated to stocks.
I do the altcoin videos because they drive the growth of the channel. Chances are, the first video you watched on this channel was an altcoin video as well
he needs to get paid some way... alts pay for vids
Pump before christmas and dump after untill 16 jan new rally then big dump in march
Seems like you have bren right. Where did you have this idea from?
@BitcoinStrategy its not about charts or news its mindgames.
Taxes and mgt fees to cancel dividends out????
Check your financial math, div yield of SPX may be around 1.5 to 2% p.a. , when withholding tax is 30% p.a. and mgt fee by any ETF provider tracking SPX is about 5 to 7 basis points!
If you buy smart like vanguard - and if you always sell after 1 year, you are right.
Outside of those ideal assumptions - say you trade more actively or you buy actively managed funds - it's not that clear anymore
Alts have been drastically underperforming, I’m going to sell mine at less than I’d originally planned unless things start looking more bullish, waiting until spring, then selling, potentially get back in for the autumn if things start moving again..
but the price has never fallen very far below the cost to mine. Typically, the price pumps well above the cost to mine during the post-halving year then it falls maybe 5% below after the crash, but it doesn't deviate too far from the cost to mine. The current cost to mine is above 80k USD since it doubled on the way to the halving.
Interesting point. I believe the cost to mine could go down as well of the price stays low for long enough? Since some miners will have to turn off the rigs and the hash rate drops?
Lots of angry people in the comnents, very telling
Good point 🤔
You have to subtract the percentage population growth and expansion of supply of scarce desirable resources. If the supply of education, for example, goes up, it offsets the monetary inflation. The valid increase of money supply is to balance the goods and services to keep prices stable. If money becomes more valuable people will stop spending it. No reason to invest in anything real if your pieces of paper are gaining value.
Interesting thought. I am not even arguing that we should get rid of inflation as a society. But for the individual, it's definitely important not to lose too much money from this hidden tax
Fehlst du Hong Kong essen?
Bitcoin exposure maybe be added to the QQQ. what now?
How would that happen? Bitcoin is not a company. Companies holding Bitcoin might be part of the Nasdaq. But I dont see how Bitcoin would become part of the index directly
@@BitcoinStrategy you misunderstand me-I think. I didn't say it would be directly a part of it. $MSTR is $BTC exposure for those that invest in it so if it's added to the QQQ index will that not be exposure for those that invest in the Nasdaq?
Biggest inflation buster: MEMES R US😂
...mal eine GAAAANZ andere Frage: du hast in der Vergangenheit oft den Rainbow-Chart (BTC) herangezogen. Wenn man den aber verlängert würde der negativ! 🤨
Ergebnis: er muss irgendwann (nach oben) durchbrechen... klar ist immer die Frage wie man die "Linie" zieht aber....🤔
Diese Trendcharts sind natürlich mit Vorsicht zu genießen - perfekt halten sie sicher nicht. Ich denke trotzdem, dass sie zumindest einen Anhaltspunkt geben können, ob wir derzeit eher billig oder Teuer sind.
Solange Bitcoin nicht abgelöst wird, wird der Preis sicher weiter steigen. Das Angebot ist limitiert
Well, there are whales that are still buying in the red market… the issue is that everybody tries to predict the Btc price… I am here in this channel for 2 years or even more and also following other channels…
Result is that there is no crystal ball, and majority do wrong predictions
And crises, a long time that I hear it… we are already living it after war in Europe, so I am not so sure of that Gerald
Nobody knows - that's true.
But it is quite clear that valuations aren't low. If they stay high? Who knows? 🤔
Ive seen that same chart but with way more room for upside. Question is which is correct? That seems very hard to call
It depends on how you do the fitting. Do you take the top prices? Or do you attempt a log regression. Injust connected tops and bottoms with a curved line
Interesting charts!
Glad you like them!
Hello Gerhard, many things has changed in few hours, do you keep your tough suggestions?
Of couse….ANYTHNG….COULD happen
HOWEVER….it has NEVER looked so POSITIVE for crypto and bitcoin as a (currently tiny) asset class…NEVER
Correlations fluctuate from 1 to 0 to 1 without ANY “reasoning”.
I am SO GLAD that I am not a trader “stressing out” about short-term price movements
I am SO GLAD that I do not rely on trading for my living
Lastly, the macro FUD and NEGATIVITY can be influenced by where one lives and those around you
I take it that you may be in Europe….perhaps close to Germany…things do not look great there
In the US, however….business, economy and markets are LOOKING FORWARD to Trump as the idea is that whatever he does will AT LEAST be good in the long-term AND maybe even the short-term
Trump koolaid... when everyone thinks something will happen you are late
We have been going through a depression sine COVID situation
Not in terms of asset prices
@ they have stagnated due to interest rates and governments using an inflation rate to keep them up even though a depression
GREAT VIDEO 📉👌🏻 who was HK island?
ai a bubble or a reason to swell stocks and crypto hmmm not sure
15 minutes of data without telling us what the best way of acting in this environment would be..
There are many ways to be risk-off. It depends how much money you have to deploy.
If its a few minths of income only - cash is enough. If its many years of income - your own house is probably a good bet as well
There's no new information in this video. This is the same video as yesterday
I didn't show any spx/ndx or buffet indicator or shiller pe in yesterday's video 🤔
Where are you coming from with this comment?
other analysts seem to agree with this theory also
Which one? I'm interested to check out their content
Just imagine if Bitcoin mimic QQQ 😂
Merry Christmas....LOL.
Actually this is based. The question is when it all falls over. Could be another year.......but a hedge is a great idea.
You want to hedge in the event of a major crash, yet you talk down long term government bonds. If the market tanks, the Feds go to 0% interest rates in the blink of an eye.
True 🤔 do you think long-term bonds would do better compared to gold in such an event?
Bro I'm in my 20's 💀
Time to be all-in crypto then 🤗
Don't you think the shiller PE ratio is high because inflation expectations for next 20 years are super high ? Monetary expansion will be so big, that a 40 PE ratio today, is like a 10 PE ratio in the 1990s.
That's an interesting thought. How do you come to the conclusion that the market expects hugh long-term inflation rates? What numbers do you derive this from?
@@BitcoinStrategy Since the 2007 crisis the fiat system has broken down, the buying power of fiat ( interest rate of short term bonds + increase in productivity) is not compensating for the debasement anymore.
Since Covid, we are seeing an even steeper trend that is probably due to the high amount of interest needed to pay on the debt.
We have a higher "official" long term inflation foretasted even by government. Real inflation is at least 50% more than the official one.
By my calculations this difference between the "real" inflation and the "free market" buying power return, is much higher than it was compared to history.
This extra 2-5% per year, makes a huge difference when doing a Free cash flow valuation of stocks.
That's where I'm coming with the fact that
At 1% loss of buying power/year a 20 PE ratio is equal at a 40 PE ratio with a 7% loss of buying power.
That's where i'm thinking that at 35 PE ratio stocks ARE slightly expensive, but when compared to the expected loss of Purchasing power over the next 10 years, we are very far from bubble territory.
This is just the talking head... back to school.
so u are in cash i assume?
Partially. My cash / metals position is larger than in has ever been. I still own crypto - but lass as a fraction of overall wealth compared to 1 year ago
So you assume no alt season this cycle? Even if they go down short term *if* they do pop they do it quick. It seems probable based on past cycles, why deviate?
U r bombastic 😂
Ha ✌🏻
Interesting!
Cheers
but still
Trump 20 January 🚀
If your theory happens do you realize regular Joe smoes like me would have a major opportunity s***
You r always such a bear. We r still in a bull mkt. I will throw this at ur face when BTC reaches another ATH. Everyone knows when to sell. Stop fudding
Listen to what you’re saying.
“Everybody’s knows when’s to sell”
Most people fail to sell
Bears get wrekt
So many people are doomed.... drunk on Trump koolaid, ignoring that all countries are in a recession
doomer
Lets see if you are still around in a few months/years
@@BitcoinStrategy I fear you have poked the BOT farms with your truth bombs..
You can’t blame Gerhard because you don’t understand data and are suffering losses.
First ❤🎉
Nice one!
Fudder!!!!!