+Taylor Worthington I actually am aware of George Friedman. Despite that, looking at "The Next 100 Years" and the tinypic, I thought the tinypic was W. I was baffled who would pay W to give such a lecture. As it turns out: They didn't.
This George guy is an idiot and a low IQ IDIOT. He has successfully duped the Americans and the Europeans. All his forecast are wrong in 2019. He claims himself as a great intellectual. His audience are more stupid and idiotic than he is, that's why they are applauding him. Most of the statistics given are wrong. Hahahaha!
14:10: "If in 1900 I told you all the British and French empires would collapse, a third world country with a 50% literacy rate would dominate the world (The United States), and the center of gravity of international industrialism would be north-east Asia, they'd carry me out in a padded suit and give me medication. Nothing is a worse guide to the future than common sense. "
+Jonah: That's one of my favorite quotes of this lecture. I also like when he points out that many Americans would prefer the US being just a democratic republic.
Jonah Friedman The superpower in 1900 was UK, it's 500yr foreign policy was to destroy, weaken, control the USA/China/France/Ger/Russia, any nation that threatened its vital national intreats, as defined by the British oligarchs; sea wolves, state monopolists, East India co., Hudson's Bay co...
Matthew Hall, you must keep in mind the very high illiteracy rates among immigrants, at the time between 1/3 and 1/2 of the country where the poorest of immigrants from central and southern Europe. I would put things somewhere in between George and you due to this.
That's what they said in 2009, because the French didn't help them in Airaq!!! Hahaha!!! Watch what they say now that the Turks bought Russian weapons... Vive la France!!! Personally, whenever this guy says it's gonna rain, I take sunglasses.
Mr. Friedman has been talking about Japan attempting to rebuild an empire for itself ever since 1990. In his book, The Coming War with Japan, he said that the Soviet Union would collapse, China would fissure, and America would retreat from the Asia-Pacific. His 2009 book, The Next 100 Years, says the same thing. He clearly hasn't changed his view very much. That's why I don't have much confidence in what he's saying.
+Joseph Zaccardi What are you saying? That you still think Mr. Friedman's predictions are feasible in your mind or that he's let the predictions start in the year 2020 so people will still pay attention to him?
Yes I do, obviously it's a prediction made during a very specific time. It won't be 100% accurate for sure, in facts events could occur at any time that would nullify it all. However saying that his predictions are completely inaccurate when we haven't even reached the date of the predictions is obviously wrong. I think his reasoning is sound, but I do think it's possible that it will play out differently. What I enjoy about the "what if talks" is that it bring out some possible ilities people would usually ignore along with the reasoning it may occur.
Pretty sure Britain controlled pretty much all the world's oceans itself at one point. It's not a uniquely American trait, though America has perfected the technique.
I love how he brought out Turkey. It is perhaps among the most underrated power today. The reason why I doubt the current EU is because they are so eager to bring in countries in the Balkans and the Eastern Europe, but they neglect Turkey. Turkey will become far more influential player as the Middle East destabilize further. I do not have such optimism for Japan as he did. Yes, they have a pretty good navy but the demographic issues is becoming huge, and Japan's economic capability is now questionable due to suffering demographics, government's refusal to significantly broaden immigration to keep the industries competitive, and emergence of other nations (Ex. Korea, China, and some countries in Southeastern Asia) who can deliver similar, if not superior, goods that Japan used to monopolize in Asia. Japan continues to decline, and I don't think they can make a big comeback since the nightmare policies they've conducted since the mid-80s. I believe China still has a long long way to go, and I like how he addressed many of the Chinese domestic issues. I like the general direction of where China is going and I think they'll become a far more powerful nation one day... but they will have to resolve many of the issues that keeps China handicapped and it will take decades (even setbacks through recession, violence or even small-scale wars) and I don't see any my future in China... but beyond my lifetime, China is the future. That does not mean China should be ignored in your career portfolio. Huge surge of Chinese middle class/high class would mean regardless of whether they stay in mainland or be braindrained to western worlds, they will still play important role in the world economy. Learning Chinese is not a waste of time even if they won't be able to get to USA level within our lifetimes
pekau you talk for demographic issues and YOU FAVOUR Turkey as a ,,great power''. You and jewish gentlemen from Stratfor forgot about one very important demographic issue in TURKEY - 20 MILLION KURDS. 20 million !!! 20 000 000 Kurds, they hate Turkey, they hate Turks and they have TWICE birth rates of turks - in turkic regions birth rate is 11 - 12 per 1000 in kurdish regions birth rate is 27 - 28 per 1000 ! Kurds WILL BE MAJORITY in Turkey in 40 to 50 years - SO WHAT THE FUCK GREAT POWER WILL BE TURKEY ?!
niks1na To start off, it's a bit of a far-stretch to call Stratfor a Jewish lobby group (Friedman himself is a Hungarian who immigrated to USA after Hungary was occupied by Soviet Union). He is also the same person who challenges the traditional view that Israel is an important ally of USA, so I don't think your scapegoating has legit claim. Furthermore, I highly doubt that the Kurds will have enough power to play significant influence over Turkey. While demography helps for the Kurds, but it's not the endgame. Look at India or African nations with healthy demography but have very limited power projection around themselves. And Kurds are not Israel - that is, they don't have the experience of running a country (or have any experience fielding military on a large scale), the Kurds themselves are scattered by tribal system somewhat similar to Afghan warlord/tribe structure. Kurds have not penetrated middle-class and high class social hierarchy of Turkey. The Kurds have as much chance of having serious influence over Turkish society as much as Palestinians have over Israel. To this day, Kurds have never achieved any form of sovereignty from any Middle-Eastern nations. (Exception of Iraq, but was only after their military and power dominance was completely destroyed by the West). I could be wrong, of course. But so far, fat chance for Kurds to get any serious voice anytime soon.
Men the Kurds and the Arabs will never fight agein turks because they know the Turks will not show mercy. The Arabs, Kurds and other minorities like Laz will support Turkey for religious reasons. North Afrika, Pakistan, the turkic countries , Indonesia, Malaysia etc.. supports Turkey.
.... It hasn't been all that long....... There's still some ways to go... And the subtle movements of the powers he mentions show that it is going in the direction he has predicted..
Anyone who thinks the U.S. will be "the pivotal actor of the 21st century" because of its enormous economy fails to take into account its abysmally decadent ethos and slovenly, demoralized populace. Read Nietzche on "the advent of nihilism." Economic determinism as singular causal mechanism meant to gauge future historical effects is childishly shortsighted.
Probably 1913 would have repeated. All the Balkan Peninsula states would join as back then to support Greece (Romania, Serbia, hopefully Bulgaria and Albania). Sadly that might not be enough to stop the modernized Turkey.
@@kayumochi Poland is a nobody, half of the population works as prostitutes in western brothels and the other half harvest asparagus for 5€ an hour, ask any German. Britain alone has close to 1 Million Polish guestworkers begging for citizenship, the holocaust for Jews was Brexit for Poles.
He must be psychic so... Cos this was after all 2007/08... And now it turn out that Poland really will be the new Germany of Europe... Probably along with Ukraine. China really is in trouble cos overexposure by banks and low returns. And Japan really is out of the closet. So either Friedman is psychic... Or he simply followed the breadcrumbs. Yeah I know...this comment was 3 years ago... Pre pandemic...and he just got lucky. But Friedman has been this lucky for a few decades now.
@sasquatch United States fuckers should stop using condoms as after 10 years or even less, Mexican will occupy the USA. The white will become minority in the USA, not even saying compete with the Chinese
"In the year 2525, if man is still alive If woman can survive, they may find In the year 3535 Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie Everything you think, do and say Is in the pill you took today In the year 4545 You ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes You won't find a thing to chew Nobody's gonna look at you In the year 5555 Your arms hangin' limp at your sides Your legs got nothin' to do Some machine's doin' that for you In the year 6565 You won't need no husband, won't need no wife You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too From the bottom of a long glass tube In the year 7510 If God's a coming, He oughta make it by then Maybe He'll look around Himself and say Guess it's time for the judgment day In the year 8510 God is gonna shake His mighty head He'll either say I'm pleased where man has been Or tear it down, and start again In the year 9595 I'm kinda wonderin' if man is gonna be alive He's taken everything this old earth can give And he ain't put back nothing Now it's been ten thousand years Man has cried a billion tears For what, he never knew, now man's reign is through But through eternal night, the twinkling of starlight So very far away, maybe it's only yesterday" Zager and Evans
He's not wrong. Chinese collapse keep getting delayed because their government has absolute control. 😑😑 What you're saying is like calling US economy in very good condition...even though we know it's about to crash... Trump maybe able to delay it till after the elections.. if he's lucky.
Pseudo Prophet , please tell me the month and the year when China is bust or collapsed,. when the time comes, we’ll know who is right who is wrong . Can’t just say “keep delaying “
@@MrSmoovefan1231 He's not a prophet. How can he tell the exact date?? I will just show you a statistics about China. Real estate price of USA at 2008 was 170 percent of their GDP. Real estate price of Japan before the lost decade was 200 percent of their GDP. 2019, the real estate price of China add up to 500 percent of their GDP. Now you know how serious Chinese economic bubble is? It's just a matter of time. Collapse of 170 and 200 percent led to global recession and protracted recession of 20 years respectively. Imagine consequence of the collapse of 500 percent of China's GDP.
大統領朴正熙 he claims he can predict next 100 years, that’s a joke. To call him “ right “ , he needs to provide the When, How, Why right. As for your real estate bubble statistic, appreciated, but real estate bubble in China doesn’t mean the whole country will collapse. China has very little foreign debt, and can keep printing money while the rest of the country keep on going. Only time will tell.
thats why china is building and improving infrastructure and economic relations with many third world countries around the world, their goal is to improve conditions around the world and bring up the living standards and at the same time build new markets so minimize dependence on western markets.
China quickly builds infrastructures using inferior materials which causees their veey large clusters of buildings to collapse and then they abandon them because they become too unsafe to live in. China has surpassed the US in the size of it's navy and has a much larger military. It's leaders value military strength more than its population.
That doesn't mean anything. It's made in China because it is cheap to make it in China, not because China is technologically advanced, actually thr contrary. Also China always had the largest economy in the world till the late 18th century when Europe and North America overtook it thanks to industrialization, now China has newly industrialized and therefore once again became the largest economy in the world, again it doesn't make it a superpower (other than an economic superpower)
It's time to play the George Friedman Drinking game; scroll down the comments section and take a shot every-time you see a comment saying how stupid he is without providing any counter points to his arguments.
+Burkutace27 How about the fact that China's capital reserve is 3 and bit times more than America's national debt but it's what he doesn't say that demonstrates his obfuscation of reality. I can't attest to his intelligence but he seems to be pushing an agenda and he's argument doesn't hold water. He's full of shit
@@TheBanjomandolin Why is America winning the trade war then at the status quo? Blatantly obvious that America has more cards to play at their disposal. Why isnt China utilizing their "three times more capital than America's debt" to hold a higher ground in the trade war? Seems like someone else is also full of shit.
The gdp of the USA isn’t as big as China + UK + Japan + Germany. But the important fact is the gdp of China is 12 compared to the USA 17. The USA will be the second largest economy by 2030.
True China dose have a larger industrial output currently 4:3.5 ratio with US, but the rate of profit return is still massively in the US favor at 20:1 ratio.China sells more products but with almost no profit.
Which can be an advantage. Everyone buys from you and you just keep expanding and expanding. China has now reached a limit of how fast they can grow, but they have new plans. Invest in 3rd world countries to improve their infrastructure (rail roads, ports, airports) and then sell them products. This will make almost every 3rd world country become of ally of china and naturally hate the USA for never doing shit for them other than bombing them.
Richard Zhong I’m Australian and we have had it with China we are booting out Chinese and only letting them lease land now we do not like communism or commies
Richard Zhong Probably not for long since the US isn't tolerating Chinese mercantilism anymore. USA already is back to fastest growing economy status. Chinese economic strategy regarding America required American complicity, and that is no longer present. See how much longer you can get away stealing trillions in intellectual property from the world, and dumping subsidized goods to bankrupt foreign firms. China was built on the backs of American consumers buying their shit, and we've had enough of watching our industry crumble.
@@lenardmalcolm8800 I THINK YOU DIDN'T NOTICE,BUT CHINA IS NOT A COMMUNIST AND NOT A SOCIALIST COUNTRY IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO CALL YOURSELF COMMUNIST OR SOCIALIST CHINA IS A STATE CAPITALIST ECONOMY WITH A ONLY ONE PARTY,BUT AGAIN THAT'S NOT A SOCIALIST ECONOMY A SOCIALIST ECONOMY OS A MORE DEMOCRATIC AND EQUALITARIAN ECONOMY IT'S LIKE THE EUROPEAN SOCIALIST PARTIES,THAT HAVE JUST THE NAME SOCIALIST,BUT THEY DONT HAVE ANY DIFFERENCE FROM THE MORE CONSERVATIVE PARTIES TO KNOW MORE ABOUT COMMIES OR COMMUNISM READ A BOOK ABOUT MARX OR TROTZKI THOSE ARE VERY USEFULL BOOKS AND THEY DONT BAIT
The problem with the argument that China "can't innovate" because of some inherent cultural difference which affects their decisions as to how they structure their economy and education system is silly. In 2008, 60% of engineering doctorates given out at U.S. universities were given to foreign students. 30% of those were given to Chinese students studying here. The main reason why the Chinese haven't innovated for the past 30 years is not that their incapable, if you ever visit China you'll..
His right on China but not Russia turkey and Japan and Poland those are random country's and there not getting strong anytime soon there done like France and the UK. And the Russia part I don't think Russia is Calapseing anytime soon it looks like it's reemerging
apoyu siken oh you are so full of shit I’m Australian we booted you out of Israel etc in WW1 it will never happen your country committed genocide it’s in the education curriculum here and most other countries
This dude is a geological genius So Poland is the Country to be now. This Guy is spot on I dont know about Japan but we se today Turkey as every one main investment and with them switching to socialist government. This is big big news
vlkn900 remember 100 years ago how many it took to stop germany - many Turks chinees african Russian amerikan other middel eastern countrys ..... ECT and The list go on and on your schould already Now that 😎😎💪🏻💪🏻
When was this done? Japan is declining because of demographics, Poland and Germany are strong allies through the EU, and China is now firmly competing with the US on economy.
Japan isn't declining. It's overblown. Not having unlimited growth isn't the same as decline. Replacement is preferred in most cases for quality of life, and Japan is just under replacement by a small margin. Only a few small social policies are required to bring this number back to baseline. There is no problem.
He did not consider the fact that major part of the economic power of Us is based on debt and petrol dollar. If petrol dollar is dumped the us have to scrap at least half of its military to keep up the economy. And don't forget that education is all time low now there. R&D is made mainly from immigrated researchers.
10 years on, George Friedman was certainly not on the money. China has become the world's largest producer, and has in just ten years built an most amazing infrastructure of motorways and high speed rail. Only 10% now live below the poverty level, in part because the one child Policy (now relaxed) has solved the rising population problem. Indeed, a smaller India has now exceeded the population of China; without including that of Pakistan or Bangladesh. As for China's navy - apparently it builds and adds to its fleet the equivalent of the French navy every three years.
The fact is that China has pulled out of extreme poverty 600 million people in in last 20 years. In recent years its dependence on exports is reducing every year and its internal consumption is going up. Today in PPP terms China has a bigger economy than USA has and it will do so in $ terms too in next 5 years.
Why do you think so? Oil prices are plummeting and Russians are in crisis, Chinese economic miracle came to an end, with growth rates falling from 14% in 2007 down to 6% in 2019 (which is still impressive, but it is a decreasing trend.), Turkey now negotiates with such countries as Russia, The U.S and Germany, topics such as Syria and Libya and in 2015, the "3 Seas Initiative" was signed in Eastern Europe, which is a cooperation agreement between the Eastern European countries and is led by Poland.
@@theknight4317 The Russians aren't in crisis any more than we are. China's growth rate slowing was expected and actually desired, 6% a year is plenty and more than any other developed economy. Everything is made in China, increasingly by Chinese brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi. China is the world leader in cutting edge tech such as 5g and has more high speed rail than the rest of the world put together. But if you want to believe Friedman's sci fi fantasies, I won't stop you.
@@Withnail1969 Wat? Oil prices are 20-30 $, Russian government says that 40 $ is enough for them. The demographics became a major problem as Vladimir Putin himself said in the national address. They spent 400 $ billion on the military in 2016-2020. They were in recession in 2014-2017 and since 2017 they are in stagnation, given current oil prices drop, they will again enter a recession. I'll remind you that the Soviet Union collapsed cause of low oil prices, high military spending and declining population and that the oil price was 30$ in 1986 (adjusted by inflation), 5 years before USSR's official collapse. 6% is still pretty good, but 6% was the Japanese growth rate in 1984, 6 years before they entered a 3-decades crisis.
@@theknight4317 Russia can now handle low oil prices, they've said they don't want to cut production. not sure where you get your "information" but they haven't been in "stagnation" since 2017, growth rates there have been similar to ours in the UK. Russian finances are in pretty good shape compared to ours. the demographics stuff is out of date too, as far as i recall the Russian population is growing again. ultimately Russia has vast land and mineral resources, not to mention fresh water; the fundamentals are far better than most countries.
@@Withnail1969 Ok. I assume you don't know what does "stagnation" mean in economics. Basically, it is when the economy grows at a very slow rate, such as the Russian growth rate in 2018 - %0.5. Vladimir Putin said that Russian population is not growing, he said it in 2019 national address. Quote: "While we have to keep our military on its toes, we have to address the demographic problems.". Russia has vast land but no people, that is why it is poor - The labour is not enough to use all of the nation's land (Read Adam Smith*). Russian problem is its dependency upon the Oil - at the time when Russians built their economy, prices were around 90$, in 2007 price per barrel was 157$ in 2020 it is 20-30$ per barrel. Watch this video - ua-cam.com/video/Szv69vb6ECI/v-deo.html
The main reason he does is because no Southern Hemisphere country has direct access to both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans or has close proximity to the Eurasian land mass (Russia).
> Well, there is South Africa, occupying a very strategic position on both the Atlantic and indian Oceans. A key location in the world for 500 years now.
russian nominal GDP is irelevant .. purchasing power parity is all that motter for a country like russia, and now that oil prices are stabilized so will they their economy
catchfish205 “they lost it all” 😂 umm, only in your dreams maybe? Keep underrating all developing countries like you did to China, nobody gives a damn and it actually helps them 👍👍
At the end of the video the orator mentions Poland and how they will succeed because of the new found relationship between Germany and Russia. I can see Poland being used by the U.S. to buffer the area, but I don't see the real effect it would have in the region. It's like having 2 bullies living next door to you and having your protector living in the the town. The orator explains his views with extreme bias!!! Sounds smart, but lacks credibility for the same reason!
Mr. Friedman, good to see what you think, however, usa's economy is equal to the next 4 economies and the reason for that is not economical but mathematical. It is simple arithmetic. If the world gets rid of trading in dollars and bring down the price of dollar, then you and your country men will know that it won't even remain in top 20 economies. Think about it.
Yes and even without getting rid of the dollar, a decade later the US economy (nominal, calculated in dollars taking into account the exchange rate) is now equal to the next 2 economies (China representing 80%) and by GDP in PPP (taking into account the difference of cost of life), China already surpassed US in 2014.
HAHAHA and now the world wants out of the Petro Dollar.... Haha! China suppressed their GDP! and has the market on rare earth and manufacture. Venezuela and Brazil told Big oil to F off and Russian is poised to rebuild nations under the gold standard! Way to go US, and debt... the only way he could have been more wrong is by saying Greece would be a military superpower of the Mediterranean
M Cuch Yes sure. The world wants rubles? Yuan? Euro? Nope nope and nope. Japan is shrinking. There isn’t enough gold in the world, and cryptocurrencies are still not trustworthy and far from ubiquitous. The US $ remains king.
Only if the world wants debt based dollar- we don’t even own anything.... maybe cartels and underworld economies... dollar lost its crown because of greed and false value... that’s why the US will wage our greatest investment our war machine, virus, and weather war... maybe because we “own the oceans”... and what’s left? I think japan will be an isolationist and our European allies ha! Their economies are already falling and their people are in protest... I think Eurasia and Russian will rebuild their transcontinental transit systems and hold fast... a benefit of communism- but only if they survive the war we have been campaigning already- virus and weather war fare ... maybe then what ever is left makes dollar king again- Insanity - especially after this video just 6 years
@@nedmoore3697 --- over time the Chinese will change the dollar system. Ultimately China will have an economy much larger than America and they will be able to force countries to trade in their currency. Right now they don't want to change the current system too rapidly because they don't want to open their financial system too quickly. The dollar has until 2030 and then its reign will be over. The Chinese are going to change the world order like it or not and Trump's tariffs and tech ban can't stop it.
I think this video is about ten years old. By today Chinese industry GDP is bigger than U.S.A and Japan combined. The Chinese GDP is about 65% of USA, and more that double than Japan. On PPP term China already suppress USA.
No it isnt. 2024: The USA= 28.78 trillion and China= 18.53 trillion. China spends a large percentage of its money on its military and treats its own people like mere lab rats and exploits them. Except for it's wealthy class. Proving Communism is not about "equity" of humans. It is as exploitive as Imperialism.
+aon10003 you see this the problem that some countries EU act as if it would want to get rid off USA but if USA would decide to go EU would beg them to come back.
There is only one thing that determines a nation's economy..CENTRAL BANKS ! There are no such things as countries anymore, only the corporations who run them, and the central banks of those nations in essence, run and control the corporations..Wealthy investors then invest on the goods and resources produced in those nations based on their GDP , and this is what any economy relies on.. He makes some excellent points , but the bottom line is, the catalyst of ANY nation's economy is in the hands of a few select bankers and wealthy Wall St. investors..
USA is the greatest power on earth (but only in military power) but in spite of this the USA has not won a single war they fought in post world war 2. China does not brag and it is not in China to brag. China has out-grown USA within 24 years since Nixon visit to China in 1974; China was ranked 100 place in the world packing order, but China out perform USA in just 24 years; what do you see in this ? China has partnered with Russia and that means the military leadership of USA is more or less balance out USA advantage. Can USA get out of their present crisis, their debt to China up to US$3 trillion. China and Russia are now out smarting the US by changing the position of the US$ as the world reserve. I don't think they can ! Prove me wrong. In any war the USA fall flat against Russia & China. Let us see !
China is not real bro! They have fake business, it’s all fake! Yes they have grown but growth didn’t produce wealth! It’s a communist party so what ever gains don’t go to the people it all goes back to the government. Which then falls back on it’s self negatively, example: You get a loan to build a 100 apartments you then build it and start moving people in. You show the community look I built 100 apartments and now these people all live here great right? Who did you get the loan from? Who lives in the apartments? Who made a profit? China gave you the loan, You live there China made zero profit BUT LOOK HOW MUCH WE HAVE GROWN!!!!!!!!
+duabimR ruhtrA: I couldn't agree with you more. Obviously, Alex is correct: George Friedman is very intelligent and highly educated whether you agree or disagree with him. He practices critical thinking which indoctrinated individuals seem incapable of doing. +Stella Adler: You have a lot of labels but offer no POV. Dr. Friedman is a student of History and stays current on many subjects. I am familiar with his ideas which are way larger than his personal politics; and liberals of any sort would most likely take issue with his views. How can you not see what happens to countries (e.g., West Germany, Japan, South Korea) that the US needs to succeed? Even I noticed that before ever hearing of Dr. Friedman.
However, much as the past 30 years of no indication of future growth, the past 30 years do not guarantee that the Chinese cannot innovate more in the future (think the 2020s and 2030s, it's a while off). Additionally, geopolitical influence is not built on your ability to innovate, it has to due with your economic influence (the U.S.'s main tool of economic influence is the huge size of its market which it can open or close to countries and its financial system). All that requires innovation..
isn't it interesting that his whole analysis (the whole book) doesn't consider the roles of the richest social circles, which are -not coincidentally like the largest corporations- international and decide most of what happen in the world?? Not a single family is mentioned. Nor corporations , say like the big oil corporations I can't tell if it's for marketing (sell a simple book) or he's just plainly avoiding the subject.
I ahte to admit it, but yes, it is so. The U.S. is in a huge debt. Pretty soon, they can't keep up, with themself, much less, with any other competative world power?!!
I despise this “war game” mentality. Why being a “naval power” is so important for George Friedman? The fact that the three major naval powers have huge maritime coasts (the US) or are islands (Japan and GB) has nothing to do with his economic thinking? It’s appalling to hear someone speaking of one country “beating” another as if in a football game and not at the cost of million lives, including civilians, women and children
Because this is how strategies in macro scale are built. Nobody cares you, you are just a number. What will your country lose when you die? Will it damn the future development of your country? No! Then you are just a small number. Else? That makes you a big number. Still just a f.cking number.
he is wrong, the same could have been said about the roman, british, ottoman empire etc... yet they collapsed. it takes only a little for the american empire to collapse, its 18 trillion dollar debt does not speak of a healthy striving economy, the middle class is shrinking in america. the only thing holding the US economy is the petrodollar and america is working hard to keep that up. he speaks very theoretically and disregards reality.
George is extrapolating a linear path from the last century when say himself history doesn’t unfold in a linear fashion. He only looks at economics, but the transformative pressures of this century will come from environmental degradation, exponential technological change, and the human geopolitical conflicts precipitated by these events. You can’t see the future looking at only one dimension. It takes looking at all the critical forces at play and listening to people with solid records of seeing what’s happening to get a clear picture.
Only thinking about the USAs problem. Look at the environmental degradation happening in China Africa and Japan. Europe is the only one seriously taking action on environmental problems and it’s because they know they can get energy from Russia. Let’s see what Europe does in the next few years. More oil or more renewables?
@@rollinwifdabigboys13 Hi Mike, So its way more complicated than this. Germany was committed to 100% renewables and got crushed... because existing grids and markets aren't designed to support transient high density power sources. Wind and Solar are capable of producing huge amounts of power, but only while there is wind or sunlight... which means huge surges of power then nothing for a while... Existing grids can be burned up when so much power is dumped on them, and then collapse when there is no power... They're designed for lower density continuous power that can ramp up locally for high demand (like air conditioning during a heat wage.) Trying to transport that much power from Northern Germany (where the wind is) to Southern Germany (where the need is), literally shut down Germany's power grid. Between the economic and physical performance of transient renewable sources, the project has been an abysmal failure. So we need to improve our grids. Optimally we need to create a global grid so no matter where the sun is shining or the wind blowing, the power can be sent to whoever needs it. The next thing we need to do is create abundant power storage in the form of global batteries. So when these systems produce surplus energy, it can be stored for use when there is no wind and no sun (every night.)
@@teiuq Hi Teiuq, I personally think the best bet is to look at what's being said by people who've made accurate long and short term predictions in the face of exponentially changing technology, geopolitics, and environmental impact. For instance, Ray Kurzweil has a consistently high accuracy when predicting the future. Its clear his view of the world is more consistent with changing reality, than most folks. Which is why Google pays him millions to give them a heads up of what's important and what's not.
This guy is talking nonsense. China is the big emerging superpower on the horizon with Japan, India behind. China is already # 1 economy as per PPP terms. Listen to Kishore Mahbubani to know the true picture.
100 % correct,the usa will be the must powerfull country in the world,in the next 10 years,but all can change if the us reduce it's military power,the need to reactived the economy and apply more protectionism.
All economies are cyclic, that’s why we invest somewhere else when our locality is in the down cycle. U can analyze all ur life but really it is that simple, without the fancy financial/economic/micro and macro gibrish.
China has changed a lot since this talk, they have pulled out more than half billion out of poverty in the last two decades. On debit USA today has 20 trillion $ debit . which par capita is the highest in the world so what prevents USA to fall into a Debit trap this guy is talking about . China today in PPP terms has bigger economy than USA . And in Do;;ar terms has overtaken Japan and in another two decades will over take USA . Unless USA goes for a war with china which it is likely to do when it finds itself being overtaken by China, During this period china will also change from an export economy to an internal consumption story.
Also, the Chinese economy dies as soon as the American navy, or any other navy of decent scale decides to block the Persian gulf and/or the straights of Malacca
+dlpetta What is your point?? So far all his predictions turned out to be right: - did Russia invaded Georgia? Yes - did Russia invaded Ukraine? Yes - is Russia supporting Al Asaad in Syria causing further casulities? Yes (they not fighting any isis there) - Russia is poor and unable to rebuild its old position? Yes - Germans talking to putin? Yes (they put sanctions on russia after invading eastern part of Ukraine, ok but at the same time they helping putin to build gas pipes into EU to make whole Europe even more depended on russian gas and oil (which is shit quality comparing to oil from middle east) - is entire EU a gay club unable to act? Yes. Who is the ONLY country to keep that short ass putin within his borders? USA (NOT EU). Obviously you never ever read any of his books. You just don't like what he is saying.. Are you one of the soviet propagandist?
+oyek arm I have his books The Next 100 Years and The Next Decade, I'm American, and those things you just listed are not all of his predictions. George Friedman wrote a book in the early 90s called The Coming War with Japan. In it, he said that with the USSR totally collapsing because of the failure of communism, China going through social upheaval because of pro-democracy protests, and Japan's need to secure naval routes and natural resources, Japan was going to engage in a massive military buildup and end up in a war with the US in 10 to 20 years. Over twenty years have passed and there was no war between the two nations. The Next 100 Years is a revision of that theory.
Japan is still in lots of trouble. Japan has a slow growing birthrate, and a rapidly aging population. Japan is also racially homogenous and has strict racial policy, so therefore they can not grow like other powers like America, or even Great Britain for that matter.
My opinion is that he looks like a cross between Bill Maher and George Bush.
+Taylor Worthington I actually am aware of George Friedman. Despite that, looking at "The Next 100 Years" and the tinypic, I thought the tinypic was W. I was baffled who would pay W to give such a lecture.
As it turns out: They didn't.
I agree. First I thought Bush, Then I saw some Maher. He talks more like Maher. He has that mouth thing going.
Such an intelligent observation
This George guy is an idiot and a low IQ IDIOT. He has successfully duped the Americans and the Europeans. All his forecast are wrong in 2019. He claims himself as a great intellectual. His audience are more stupid and idiotic than he is, that's why they are applauding him. Most of the statistics given are wrong. Hahahaha!
Thanks, I kept seeing Dubyah but I couldn't figure out the mother. It's clearly Maher.
14:10: "If in 1900 I told you all the British and French empires would collapse, a third world country with a 50% literacy rate would dominate the world (The United States), and the center of gravity of international industrialism would be north-east Asia, they'd carry me out in a padded suit and give me medication. Nothing is a worse guide to the future than common sense. "
+Jonah: That's one of my favorite quotes of this lecture. I also like when he points out that many Americans would prefer the US being just a democratic republic.
The U.S. had almost universal literacy in 1900. You're insane.
Jonah Friedman
The superpower in 1900 was UK, it's 500yr foreign policy was to destroy, weaken, control the USA/China/France/Ger/Russia, any nation that threatened its vital national intreats, as defined by the British oligarchs; sea wolves, state monopolists, East India co., Hudson's Bay co...
He is right the Europeans looked to the USA as somewhat backwards back then, regardless of all the inventions or other things coming out of it.
Matthew Hall, you must keep in mind the very high illiteracy rates among immigrants, at the time between 1/3 and 1/2 of the country where the poorest of immigrants from central and southern Europe. I would put things somewhere in between George and you due to this.
13:45 rise of Poland and Turkey
16:50 Turkish Power will be the leader finish French in 1 hour
if they show up
@BERNARD BURGUIERE I watched a map for an hour but nothing happened
BASHI BUZUK..
Rama Lama ding dong
😁😁
That's what they said in 2009, because the French didn't help them in Airaq!!! Hahaha!!! Watch what they say now that the Turks bought Russian weapons... Vive la France!!! Personally, whenever this guy says it's gonna rain, I take sunglasses.
This aged well after the USA blew up the NordStream pipeline
16:46 Turkey 18:57 Poland
Mr. Friedman has been talking about Japan attempting to rebuild an empire for itself ever since 1990. In his book, The Coming War with Japan, he said that the Soviet Union would collapse, China would fissure, and America would retreat from the Asia-Pacific. His 2009 book, The Next 100 Years, says the same thing. He clearly hasn't changed his view very much. That's why I don't have much confidence in what he's saying.
+Fre Go What do you mean?
+Brett Quimby Ya... "the next hundred years" almost all of his predictions start in 2020... so....ya
+Joseph Zaccardi What are you saying? That you still think Mr. Friedman's predictions are feasible in your mind or that he's let the predictions start in the year 2020 so people will still pay attention to him?
Yes I do, obviously it's a prediction made during a very specific time. It won't be 100% accurate for sure, in facts events could occur at any time that would nullify it all. However saying that his predictions are completely inaccurate when we haven't even reached the date of the predictions is obviously wrong. I think his reasoning is sound, but I do think it's possible that it will play out differently. What I enjoy about the "what if talks" is that it bring out some possible ilities people would usually ignore along with the reasoning it may occur.
Joseph Zaccardi Let's just say that I follow the Philip Tetlock stance on predictioners with the Foxes and Hedgehog analogy.
This video is proof how quickly world economies and powers can clip in 10yrs.
Pretty sure Britain controlled pretty much all the world's oceans itself at one point. It's not a uniquely American trait, though America has perfected the technique.
British didn't/couldn't care about most of the oceans. They controled mostly most of their own waters (which was pretty large indeed).
What a great lecture! Great content! The speaker looks a lot like Shane Dietrich.
I love how he brought out Turkey. It is perhaps among the most underrated power today. The reason why I doubt the current EU is because they are so eager to bring in countries in the Balkans and the Eastern Europe, but they neglect Turkey. Turkey will become far more influential player as the Middle East destabilize further.
I do not have such optimism for Japan as he did. Yes, they have a pretty good navy but the demographic issues is becoming huge, and Japan's economic capability is now questionable due to suffering demographics, government's refusal to significantly broaden immigration to keep the industries competitive, and emergence of other nations (Ex. Korea, China, and some countries in Southeastern Asia) who can deliver similar, if not superior, goods that Japan used to monopolize in Asia. Japan continues to decline, and I don't think they can make a big comeback since the nightmare policies they've conducted since the mid-80s.
I believe China still has a long long way to go, and I like how he addressed many of the Chinese domestic issues. I like the general direction of where China is going and I think they'll become a far more powerful nation one day... but they will have to resolve many of the issues that keeps China handicapped and it will take decades (even setbacks through recession, violence or even small-scale wars) and I don't see any my future in China... but beyond my lifetime, China is the future. That does not mean China should be ignored in your career portfolio. Huge surge of Chinese middle class/high class would mean regardless of whether they stay in mainland or be braindrained to western worlds, they will still play important role in the world economy. Learning Chinese is not a waste of time even if they won't be able to get to USA level within our lifetimes
pekau you talk for demographic issues and YOU FAVOUR Turkey as a ,,great power''. You and jewish gentlemen from Stratfor forgot about one very important demographic issue in TURKEY - 20 MILLION KURDS. 20 million !!! 20 000 000 Kurds, they hate Turkey, they hate Turks and they have TWICE birth rates of turks - in turkic regions birth rate is 11 - 12 per 1000 in kurdish regions birth rate is 27 - 28 per 1000 ! Kurds WILL BE MAJORITY in Turkey in 40 to 50 years - SO WHAT THE FUCK GREAT POWER WILL BE TURKEY ?!
niks1na To start off, it's a bit of a far-stretch to call Stratfor a Jewish lobby group (Friedman himself is a Hungarian who immigrated to USA after Hungary was occupied by Soviet Union). He is also the same person who challenges the traditional view that Israel is an important ally of USA, so I don't think your scapegoating has legit claim.
Furthermore, I highly doubt that the Kurds will have enough power to play significant influence over Turkey. While demography helps for the Kurds, but it's not the endgame. Look at India or African nations with healthy demography but have very limited power projection around themselves. And Kurds are not Israel - that is, they don't have the experience of running a country (or have any experience fielding military on a large scale), the Kurds themselves are scattered by tribal system somewhat similar to Afghan warlord/tribe structure. Kurds have not penetrated middle-class and high class social hierarchy of Turkey. The Kurds have as much chance of having serious influence over Turkish society as much as Palestinians have over Israel.
To this day, Kurds have never achieved any form of sovereignty from any Middle-Eastern nations. (Exception of Iraq, but was only after their military and power dominance was completely destroyed by the West). I could be wrong, of course. But so far, fat chance for Kurds to get any serious voice anytime soon.
Men the Kurds and the Arabs will never fight agein turks because they know the Turks will not show mercy. The Arabs, Kurds and other minorities like Laz will support Turkey for religious reasons. North Afrika, Pakistan, the turkic countries , Indonesia, Malaysia etc.. supports Turkey.
niks1na YOU ARE AN IGNORANT AS FUCK!
Aegean A The former seat of the Ottoman Empire calling any one else "imperialist" is hilarious.
The world has changed so much since this video was made and mostly none of George's predictions came to pass.
.... It hasn't been all that long....... There's still some ways to go... And the subtle movements of the powers he mentions show that it is going in the direction he has predicted..
@@rashink1174 lol no it doesnt.
The world has changed a lot since your comment (posted 3 years ago as of now). And some of George‘s predictions seem to come to pass. Somewhat. 😅
Anyone who thinks the U.S. will be "the pivotal actor of the 21st century" because of its enormous economy fails to take into account its abysmally decadent ethos and slovenly, demoralized populace. Read Nietzche on "the advent of nihilism."
Economic determinism as singular causal mechanism meant to gauge future historical effects is childishly shortsighted.
if Turkey can beat Germans in the afternoon and french in an hour if they showed up so what could Turkey do to Greece if they wanted to ?
Probably 1913 would have repeated. All the Balkan Peninsula states would join as back then to support Greece (Romania, Serbia, hopefully Bulgaria and Albania). Sadly that might not be enough to stop the modernized Turkey.
@@b0za Albania is pro-Turkiye
He’s so close. Will be Ukraine and Poland. A TWIN STAR. This will do more than expected, for the world.
You may be right. Poland has certainly become a player in the Russian war on Ukraine.
Thank you it’s (of course) just a shot in the dark!
Prayer here for a strong and financially prosperous PEACE.
@@kayumochi Poland is a nobody, half of the population works as prostitutes in western brothels and the other half harvest asparagus for 5€ an hour, ask any German. Britain alone has close to 1 Million Polish guestworkers begging for citizenship, the holocaust for Jews was Brexit for Poles.
All the more, we shud be carefully humble what you learned from people or expert like this guy. There is no such thing as know all, nowadays.
He must be psychic so... Cos this was after all 2007/08... And now it turn out that Poland really will be the new Germany of Europe... Probably along with Ukraine.
China really is in trouble cos overexposure by banks and low returns.
And Japan really is out of the closet.
So either Friedman is psychic... Or he simply followed the breadcrumbs.
Yeah I know...this comment was 3 years ago... Pre pandemic...and he just got lucky. But Friedman has been this lucky for a few decades now.
This is obsolete. Please do not pop up on my screen.
8:07 Chinese buying condoms! haha
He's got major yellow fever and it just slipped.
even that is wrong haha since china has stopped the one child policy
@sasquatch United States fuckers should stop using condoms as after 10 years or even less, Mexican will occupy the USA. The white will become minority in the USA, not even saying compete with the Chinese
@@shic6721I hope English isn't your first language
Say hello from 2019.
Stop. Leave now. 2020 sucks.
"In the year 2525, if man is still alive
If woman can survive, they may find
In the year 3535
Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie
Everything you think, do and say
Is in the pill you took today
In the year 4545
You ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes
You won't find a thing to chew
Nobody's gonna look at you
In the year 5555
Your arms hangin' limp at your sides
Your legs got nothin' to do
Some machine's doin' that for you
In the year 6565
You won't need no husband, won't need no wife
You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too
From the bottom of a long glass tube
In the year 7510
If God's a coming, He oughta make it by then
Maybe He'll look around Himself and say
Guess it's time for the judgment day
In the year 8510
God is gonna shake His mighty head
He'll either say I'm pleased where man has been
Or tear it down, and start again
In the year 9595
I'm kinda wonderin' if man is gonna be alive
He's taken everything this old earth can give
And he ain't put back nothing
Now it's been ten thousand years
Man has cried a billion tears
For what, he never knew, now man's reign is through
But through eternal night, the twinkling of starlight
So very far away, maybe it's only yesterday" Zager and Evans
It is interesting that these lectures are recorded as one can guage, how corrwct these predictions really are.
His prediction were all wrong, so much of a geopolitical expert
Have you seen whats going on with Turkey in the last few months. China Russian and the states doing big Business there it dont seem as hes wrong
He's not wrong. Chinese collapse keep getting delayed because their government has absolute control. 😑😑
What you're saying is like calling US economy in very good condition...even though we know it's about to crash... Trump maybe able to delay it till after the elections.. if he's lucky.
Pseudo Prophet , please tell me the month and the year when China is bust or collapsed,. when the time comes, we’ll know who is right who is wrong . Can’t just say “keep delaying “
@@MrSmoovefan1231 He's not a prophet. How can he tell the exact date??
I will just show you a statistics about China.
Real estate price of USA at 2008 was 170 percent of their GDP.
Real estate price of Japan before the lost decade was 200 percent of their GDP.
2019, the real estate price of China add up to 500 percent of their GDP. Now you know how serious Chinese economic bubble is? It's just a matter of time. Collapse of 170 and 200 percent led to global recession and protracted recession of 20 years respectively. Imagine consequence of the collapse of 500 percent of China's GDP.
大統領朴正熙 he claims he can predict next 100 years, that’s a joke. To call him “ right “ , he needs to provide the When, How, Why right.
As for your real estate bubble statistic, appreciated, but real estate bubble in China doesn’t mean the whole country will collapse. China has very little foreign debt, and can keep printing money while the rest of the country keep on going. Only time will tell.
thats why china is building and improving infrastructure and economic relations with many third world countries around the world, their goal is to improve conditions around the world and bring up the living standards and at the same time build new markets so minimize dependence on western markets.
Their goal is the last part. The prior part is only a requirement. China cares about China.
China quickly builds infrastructures using inferior materials which causees their veey large clusters of buildings to collapse and then they abandon them because they become too unsafe to live in. China has surpassed the US in the size of it's navy and has a much larger military. It's leaders value military strength more than its population.
Here in 2019, China's economy is larger than the US on the World Bank's PPP index and has been for several years.
If the numbers are correct. Remember how the USSR cooked the books?
@@JRobbySh All i know is that just about everything i own is made in China. that wasn't the case with the former USSR.
That doesn't mean anything. It's made in China because it is cheap to make it in China, not because China is technologically advanced, actually thr contrary.
Also China always had the largest economy in the world till the late 18th century when Europe and North America overtook it thanks to industrialization, now China has newly industrialized and therefore once again became the largest economy in the world, again it doesn't make it a superpower (other than an economic superpower)
@@theknight4317 China is indeed technologically advanced. It's not the 1990s any more.
Should call him back today August 2022.
That's classic economics; pounding a square peg into a round hole to fit a political agenda!
I found this to be very interesting until I realised that this talk was taking place in 1985 !!! A heck of a lot has changed since then.
I think It was about 2000-2005. He said 1991 Japan. But anyway he was totally wrong.
He is also talking about president Obama....so definitely not 1985! :-) And he is so wrong...
Old facts. Things have changed and the future is likely to be different in favour of emerging economies and Asia.
Where? China? Bad demographics … Russia ? 🤣
Japan lost money on Rockefeller Center because they had so much idle cash (our exported debt) that they had no realistic concept of the value of it.
It's time to play the George Friedman Drinking game; scroll down the comments section and take a shot every-time you see a comment saying how stupid he is without providing any counter points to his arguments.
How stupid he is!!
+Burkutace27 How about the fact that China's capital reserve is 3 and bit times more than America's national debt but it's what he doesn't say that demonstrates his obfuscation of reality. I can't attest to his intelligence but he seems to be pushing an agenda and he's argument doesn't hold water. He's full of shit
TheBanjomandolin
Damn right. The guy is a dick. No other of putting it. Smart, i know pissheads smarter.
@@TheBanjomandolin Why is America winning the trade war then at the status quo? Blatantly obvious that America has more cards to play at their disposal. Why isnt China utilizing their "three times more capital than America's debt" to hold a higher ground in the trade war? Seems like someone else is also full of shit.
@@successkim7920 lol so many years passed your peoples heads are still in the sand...
ماذا يقول الآن؟؟
لقد تغير العالم
ولم تجري الرياح كما تشتهي السفن
10:37 "Six hundred billion dollars isn't enough for 1.1 trillion people"??
The gdp of the USA isn’t as big as China + UK + Japan + Germany. But the important fact is the gdp of China is 12 compared to the USA 17. The USA will be the second largest economy by 2030.
17:12 - haahaha true!
9years ago. How things have changed.
This is an old video,in 2013 china's industry output is larger than usa.
True China dose have a larger industrial output currently 4:3.5 ratio with US, but the rate of profit return is still massively in the US favor at 20:1 ratio.China sells more products but with almost no profit.
Which can be an advantage. Everyone buys from you and you just keep expanding and expanding. China has now reached a limit of how fast they can grow, but they have new plans. Invest in 3rd world countries to improve their infrastructure (rail roads, ports, airports) and then sell them products. This will make almost every 3rd world country become of ally of china and naturally hate the USA for never doing shit for them other than bombing them.
Richard Zhong I’m Australian and we have had it with China we are booting out Chinese and only letting them lease land now we do not like communism or commies
Richard Zhong Probably not for long since the US isn't tolerating Chinese mercantilism anymore. USA already is back to fastest growing economy status. Chinese economic strategy regarding America required American complicity, and that is no longer present.
See how much longer you can get away stealing trillions in intellectual property from the world, and dumping subsidized goods to bankrupt foreign firms. China was built on the backs of American consumers buying their shit, and we've had enough of watching our industry crumble.
@@lenardmalcolm8800
I THINK YOU DIDN'T NOTICE,BUT CHINA IS NOT A COMMUNIST AND NOT A SOCIALIST COUNTRY
IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO CALL YOURSELF COMMUNIST OR SOCIALIST
CHINA IS A STATE CAPITALIST ECONOMY WITH A ONLY ONE PARTY,BUT AGAIN THAT'S NOT A SOCIALIST ECONOMY
A SOCIALIST ECONOMY OS A MORE DEMOCRATIC AND EQUALITARIAN ECONOMY
IT'S LIKE THE EUROPEAN SOCIALIST PARTIES,THAT HAVE JUST THE NAME SOCIALIST,BUT THEY DONT HAVE ANY DIFFERENCE FROM THE MORE CONSERVATIVE PARTIES
TO KNOW MORE ABOUT COMMIES OR COMMUNISM READ A BOOK ABOUT MARX OR TROTZKI
THOSE ARE VERY USEFULL BOOKS AND THEY DONT BAIT
Robert Sollow won the Nobel Prize by arguing that all countries tend to one high income; once that happens China and India are going to be huge!!!
China, India & Russia will decline to be, very minor. They will become minoritiys! In the long shot of 50 - 65 years from now!
The bigger you are
The biggest the fall
The biggest debt
Nothing I envie
@i get it no you do not
Trade deficit does create the debts
You buy things you do not need
With money you do not have
The problem with the argument that China "can't innovate" because of some inherent cultural difference which affects their decisions as to how they structure their economy and education system is silly. In 2008, 60% of engineering doctorates given out at U.S. universities were given to foreign students. 30% of those were given to Chinese students studying here. The main reason why the Chinese haven't innovated for the past 30 years is not that their incapable, if you ever visit China you'll..
He just makes up all sorts of random ideas so that in his mind the geopolitical challenges would disappear.
If nothing else, he's a great salesman....
As of 2024, the GDP of the USA is 28.78 trillion and China 18.53, Germany, Japan and India are around 4 trillion each.
His right on China but not Russia turkey and Japan and Poland those are random country's and there not getting strong anytime soon there done like France and the UK. And the Russia part I don't think Russia is Calapseing anytime soon it looks like it's reemerging
apoyu siken oh you are so full of shit I’m Australian we booted you out of Israel etc in WW1 it will never happen your country committed genocide it’s in the education curriculum here and most other countries
This dude is a geological genius So Poland is the Country to be now. This Guy is spot on I dont know about Japan but we se today Turkey as every one main investment and with them switching to socialist government. This is big big news
HE IS A CHARLATAN..ONE MUST BE FOOL TO TAKE HIM AS A SEROUS PROFESSOR..IF HE IS AN EXPERT GEOPOLITICIAN,THEN I AM MICKEY MOUSE.
@@dragonfly1929 I can not see your profile photo clearly let me see this Mickey dude..
Turkey switching to Socialism, will cause itself to collapse eventually.
"Turkey could take Germany in an afternoon and France in an Hour if they turn up" hahahaha :))
vlkn900 this is the truth bro:)
vlkn900 remember 100 years ago how many it took to stop germany - many Turks chinees african Russian amerikan other middel eastern countrys ..... ECT and The list go on and on your schould already Now that 😎😎💪🏻💪🏻
France launched Cruise missiles in Syria how many hit it's targets ?!??!😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Germany has only 4 combat ready Eurofighters according to RT France has old Eurofighters but Turkey is getting even stronger than these two
vlkn900 bizans killing win ottoman ???
When was this done? Japan is declining because of demographics, Poland and Germany are strong allies through the EU, and China is now firmly competing with the US on economy.
Japan isn't declining. It's overblown. Not having unlimited growth isn't the same as decline. Replacement is preferred in most cases for quality of life, and Japan is just under replacement by a small margin. Only a few small social policies are required to bring this number back to baseline. There is no problem.
Well that aged well
He did not consider the fact that major part of the economic power of Us is based on debt and petrol dollar. If petrol dollar is dumped the us have to scrap at least half of its military to keep up the economy. And don't forget that education is all time low now there. R&D is made mainly from immigrated researchers.
china has launched petro yuan and america game is over😂😂😂😂😂
No friend there's about three more episodes he talks about Brazil Argentina etc. Etc. This person has been accurate in everything he's said.
The wisdom of the world is madness to God. All the idols will be destroid. Haleluyah ! Come, Lord Jesus !
10 years on, George Friedman was certainly not on the money. China has become the world's largest producer, and has in just ten years built an most amazing infrastructure of motorways and high speed rail. Only 10% now live below the poverty level, in part because the one child Policy (now relaxed) has solved the rising population problem. Indeed, a smaller India has now exceeded the population of China; without including that of Pakistan or Bangladesh. As for China's navy - apparently it builds and adds to its fleet the equivalent of the French navy every three years.
The fact is that China has pulled out of extreme poverty 600 million people in in last 20 years. In recent years its dependence on exports is reducing every year and its internal consumption is going up. Today in PPP terms China has a bigger economy than USA has and it will do so in $ terms too in next 5 years.
Your statement did not age well.
Things have not come about as predicted by George. The more we think we know, the more we realize that we don't know.
Why do you think so? Oil prices are plummeting and Russians are in crisis, Chinese economic miracle came to an end, with growth rates falling from 14% in 2007 down to 6% in 2019 (which is still impressive, but it is a decreasing trend.), Turkey now negotiates with such countries as Russia, The U.S and Germany, topics such as Syria and Libya and in 2015, the "3 Seas Initiative" was signed in Eastern Europe, which is a cooperation agreement between the Eastern European countries and is led by Poland.
@@theknight4317 The Russians aren't in crisis any more than we are. China's growth rate slowing was expected and actually desired, 6% a year is plenty and more than any other developed economy. Everything is made in China, increasingly by Chinese brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi. China is the world leader in cutting edge tech such as 5g and has more high speed rail than the rest of the world put together. But if you want to believe Friedman's sci fi fantasies, I won't stop you.
@@Withnail1969 Wat? Oil prices are 20-30 $, Russian government says that 40 $ is enough for them. The demographics became a major problem as Vladimir Putin himself said in the national address. They spent 400 $ billion on the military in 2016-2020. They were in recession in 2014-2017 and since 2017 they are in stagnation, given current oil prices drop, they will again enter a recession. I'll remind you that the Soviet Union collapsed cause of low oil prices, high military spending and declining population and that the oil price was 30$ in 1986 (adjusted by inflation), 5 years before USSR's official collapse. 6% is still pretty good, but 6% was the Japanese growth rate in 1984, 6 years before they entered a 3-decades crisis.
@@theknight4317 Russia can now handle low oil prices, they've said they don't want to cut production. not sure where you get your "information" but they haven't been in "stagnation" since 2017, growth rates there have been similar to ours in the UK. Russian finances are in pretty good shape compared to ours. the demographics stuff is out of date too, as far as i recall the Russian population is growing again. ultimately Russia has vast land and mineral resources, not to mention fresh water; the fundamentals are far better than most countries.
@@Withnail1969 Ok. I assume you don't know what does "stagnation" mean in economics. Basically, it is when the economy grows at a very slow rate, such as the Russian growth rate in 2018 - %0.5. Vladimir Putin said that Russian population is not growing, he said it in 2019 national address. Quote: "While we have to keep our military on its toes, we have to address the demographic problems.". Russia has vast land but no people, that is why it is poor - The labour is not enough to use all of the nation's land (Read Adam Smith*). Russian problem is its dependency upon the Oil - at the time when Russians built their economy, prices were around 90$, in 2007 price per barrel was 157$ in 2020 it is 20-30$ per barrel.
Watch this video - ua-cam.com/video/Szv69vb6ECI/v-deo.html
The main reason he does is because no Southern Hemisphere country has direct access to both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans or has close proximity to the Eurasian land mass (Russia).
>
Well, there is South Africa, occupying a very strategic position on both the Atlantic and indian Oceans. A key location in the world for 500 years now.
He got Turkey right and wrong. Russia did come back, but Turkey is clearly of growing importance in the power vacuum of the middle east.
Russia came back? their GDP has halved in the last 3 years.
russian nominal GDP is irelevant .. purchasing power parity is all that motter for a country like russia, and now that oil prices are stabilized so will they their economy
You sure? Why?
catchfish205 “they lost it all” 😂 umm, only in your dreams maybe? Keep underrating all developing countries like you did to China, nobody gives a damn and it actually helps them 👍👍
There was a time when Britain ruled the waves
This guy is really helping China be great again by self hypnotizing. China said:'Thank you very much, keep on dreaming.'
Economic and political analysts almost never get it right.
This one did
8:08 he said condoms. I swear!
+~ShiftR0ck~ bit of a Freudian slip :D
Aaron Bud Indeed ;D
Your absolutely right.
Time slip
The video is 6 years old.
At the end of the video the orator mentions Poland and how they will succeed because of the new found relationship between Germany and Russia. I can see Poland being used by the U.S. to buffer the area, but I don't see the real effect it would have in the region. It's like having 2 bullies living next door to you and having your protector living in the the town. The orator explains his views with extreme bias!!! Sounds smart, but lacks credibility for the same reason!
Mr. Friedman, good to see what you think, however, usa's economy is equal to the next 4 economies and the reason for that is not economical but mathematical. It is simple arithmetic. If the world gets rid of trading in dollars and bring down the price of dollar, then you and your country men will know that it won't even remain in top 20 economies. Think about it.
Koi apne warga aaya
Yes and even without getting rid of the dollar, a decade later the US economy (nominal, calculated in dollars taking into account the exchange rate) is now equal to the next 2 economies (China representing 80%) and by GDP in PPP (taking into account the difference of cost of life), China already surpassed US in 2014.
Every prediction George Friedman made is WRONG. LOL.
HAHAHA and now the world wants out of the Petro Dollar.... Haha! China suppressed their GDP! and has the market on rare earth and manufacture. Venezuela and Brazil told Big oil to F off and Russian is poised to rebuild nations under the gold standard! Way to go US, and debt... the only way he could have been more wrong is by saying Greece would be a military superpower of the Mediterranean
M Cuch Yes sure. The world wants rubles? Yuan? Euro? Nope nope and nope. Japan is shrinking. There isn’t enough gold in the world, and cryptocurrencies are still not trustworthy and far from ubiquitous. The US $ remains king.
Only if the world wants debt based dollar- we don’t even own anything.... maybe cartels and underworld economies... dollar lost its crown because of greed and false value... that’s why the US will wage our greatest investment our war machine, virus, and weather war... maybe because we “own the oceans”... and what’s left? I think japan will be an isolationist and our European allies ha! Their economies are already falling and their people are in protest... I think Eurasia and Russian will rebuild their transcontinental transit systems and hold fast... a benefit of communism- but only if they survive the war we have been campaigning already- virus and weather war fare ... maybe then what ever is left makes dollar king again- Insanity - especially after this video just 6 years
@@nedmoore3697 --- over time the Chinese will change the dollar system. Ultimately China will have an economy much larger than America and they will be able to force countries to trade in their currency. Right now they don't want to change the current system too rapidly because they don't want to open their financial system too quickly. The dollar has until 2030 and then its reign will be over. The Chinese are going to change the world order like it or not and Trump's tariffs and tech ban can't stop it.
M Cuch A “benefit of communism”? There are none.
so how come china and japan own most of the us national debt of which the interest is higher than it's gdp
Both will regret it when the Great Default comes. First on Interest, later on the principal.
Long live my homeland 🇹🇷🇹🇷❤️
As bayrakları as as as ahh keşke ama bence süper güç değil Bi kimliğimiz oturtup kendimize yol cizmek daha önemli
I think this video is about ten years old. By today Chinese industry GDP is bigger than U.S.A and Japan combined. The Chinese GDP is about 65% of USA, and more that double than Japan. On PPP term China already suppress USA.
No it isnt. 2024: The USA= 28.78 trillion and China= 18.53 trillion. China spends a large percentage of its money on its military and treats its own people like mere lab rats and exploits them. Except for it's wealthy class. Proving Communism is not about "equity" of humans. It is as exploitive as Imperialism.
If US feels this way about Europé, end your allianses, it will be over in a week.
+aon10003
you see this the problem that some countries EU act as if it would want to get rid off USA but if USA would decide to go EU would beg them to come back.
You have no idea of Europes history.
aon10003
Well I actually DO and very well too.
Myfujacc Myfujacc why you think we gonne bag ?? Explaine ..
for a minute I thought George Bush has got smart after his presidancy term
There is only one thing that determines a nation's economy..CENTRAL BANKS !
There are no such things as countries anymore, only the corporations who run them, and the central banks of those nations in essence, run and control the corporations..Wealthy investors then invest on the goods and resources produced in those nations based on their GDP , and this is what any economy relies on.. He makes some excellent points , but the bottom line is, the catalyst of ANY nation's economy is in the hands of a few select bankers and wealthy Wall St. investors..
In which sector does the US have a successful economy, beside the military industrial complex? Made in USA? Never read this on any product.
the us economy is only 23 % trade , while china and russia are way above 50% trade which american ships control !!!
August 2022 now..Russia, Turkey, Poland, China ..👍👏👏 many things got he got it right
Excellent I formative speech
USA is the greatest power on earth (but only in military power) but in spite of this the USA has not won a single war they fought in post world war 2. China does not brag and it is not in China to brag. China has out-grown USA within 24 years since Nixon visit to China in 1974; China was ranked 100 place in the world packing order, but China out perform USA in just 24 years; what do you see in this ? China has partnered with Russia and that means the military leadership of USA is more or less balance out USA advantage.
Can USA get out of their present crisis, their debt to China up to US$3 trillion. China and Russia are now out smarting the US by changing the position of the US$ as the world reserve. I don't think they can ! Prove me wrong. In any war the USA fall flat against Russia & China. Let us see !
China is not real bro! They have fake business, it’s all fake! Yes they have grown but growth didn’t produce wealth! It’s a communist party so what ever gains don’t go to the people it all goes back to the government. Which then falls back on it’s self negatively, example: You get a loan to build a 100 apartments you then build it and start moving people in. You show the community look I built 100 apartments and now these people all live here great right?
Who did you get the loan from? Who lives in the apartments? Who made a profit?
China gave you the loan,
You live there
China made zero profit
BUT LOOK HOW MUCH WE HAVE GROWN!!!!!!!!
The higher u go the harder you fall, if you are not careful and misuse your strength.
George Friedman is smart: )
Alex, an indoctrinated and propagandized neoliberal, is
essentially a servant of Washington, not that you is aware of your role as
“useful idiot.”
+duabimR ruhtrA: I couldn't agree with you more. Obviously, Alex is correct: George Friedman is very intelligent and highly educated whether you agree or disagree with him. He practices critical thinking which indoctrinated individuals seem incapable of doing.
+Stella Adler: You have a lot of labels but offer no POV. Dr. Friedman is a student of History and stays current on many subjects. I am familiar with his ideas which are way larger than his personal politics; and liberals of any sort would most likely take issue with his views. How can you not see what happens to countries (e.g., West Germany, Japan, South Korea) that the US needs to succeed? Even I noticed that before ever hearing of Dr. Friedman.
Melissa Evett Haters gonna hate so why do you even bother explaining to them :)
Melissa I think you are very very smart 👍👍👍👍😊
If the purpose of your comment is to add substance on to his already overgrown narcissistic public image,
see no social value of it.!!
Hard to hold back laughter. Poland, Turkey *_superpowers_* ? Please!😂
Hard to take this guy seriously. What next? Burundi?
He didn't say they would become superpowers. He said they would become major regional powers by 2050
However, much as the past 30 years of no indication of future growth, the past 30 years do not guarantee that the Chinese cannot innovate more in the future (think the 2020s and 2030s, it's a while off). Additionally, geopolitical influence is not built on your ability to innovate, it has to due with your economic influence (the U.S.'s main tool of economic influence is the huge size of its market which it can open or close to countries and its financial system). All that requires innovation..
isn't it interesting that his whole analysis (the whole book) doesn't consider the roles of the richest social circles, which are -not coincidentally like the largest corporations- international and decide most of what happen in the world??
Not a single family is mentioned. Nor corporations , say like the big oil corporations
I can't tell if it's for marketing (sell a simple book) or he's just plainly avoiding the subject.
Debt based economics ... Surely an American knows everything about that ;)
I ahte to admit it, but yes, it is so. The U.S. is in a huge debt. Pretty soon, they can't keep up, with themself, much less, with any other competative world power?!!
What about Australia? What is our density??
16:47 and after :)
18:57 ;)
You cannot bet against the US economy and expect to win. Warren Buffet.
But seriously we need, for the sake of our species to re evaluate.
do all people named friedman dabble in economics.
Govind Indurkar and they are usually wrong
I despise this “war game” mentality. Why being a “naval power” is so important for George Friedman? The fact that the three major naval powers have huge maritime coasts (the US) or are islands (Japan and GB) has nothing to do with his economic thinking? It’s appalling to hear someone speaking of one country “beating” another as if in a football game and not at the cost of million lives, including civilians, women and children
Because this is how strategies in macro scale are built. Nobody cares you, you are just a number. What will your country lose when you die? Will it damn the future development of your country? No! Then you are just a small number. Else? That makes you a big number. Still just a f.cking number.
Let me introduce you " money ". No life is more important than sustainability for these kind of men.
I'm sorry, this is unwatchable, the australian guy's breathing is like hurricanes in my ears
Lol ahaha damn this guys is sleeping:))))
he is wrong, the same could have been said about the roman, british, ottoman empire etc... yet they collapsed. it takes only a little for the american empire to collapse, its 18 trillion dollar debt does not speak of a healthy striving economy, the middle class is shrinking in america. the only thing holding the US economy is the petrodollar and america is working hard to keep that up. he speaks very theoretically and disregards reality.
British Empire didnt collapse. That is a PR move enforced by USA. British couldnt contest USA so they took the second place, they are still there.
Nice projection, however all the Earths systems are breaking down NOW, we have less than ten years and that's that.
Turkish nationalists really come out of the woodwork on videos like this don't they
Quite intricate propaganda.
Poland does not need either the United States or Russia. As far as I understand, Poland is a sovereign country, or should be...
George is extrapolating a linear path from the last century when say himself history doesn’t unfold in a linear fashion.
He only looks at economics, but the transformative pressures of this century will come from environmental degradation, exponential technological change, and the human geopolitical conflicts precipitated by these events.
You can’t see the future looking at only one dimension. It takes looking at all the critical forces at play and listening to people with solid records of seeing what’s happening to get a clear picture.
Only thinking about the USAs problem. Look at the environmental degradation happening in China Africa and Japan. Europe is the only one seriously taking action on environmental problems and it’s because they know they can get energy from Russia. Let’s see what Europe does in the next few years. More oil or more renewables?
@@rollinwifdabigboys13
Hi Mike, So its way more complicated than this. Germany was committed to 100% renewables and got crushed... because existing grids and markets aren't designed to support transient high density power sources. Wind and Solar are capable of producing huge amounts of power, but only while there is wind or sunlight... which means huge surges of power then nothing for a while... Existing grids can be burned up when so much power is dumped on them, and then collapse when there is no power... They're designed for lower density continuous power that can ramp up locally for high demand (like air conditioning during a heat wage.) Trying to transport that much power from Northern Germany (where the wind is) to Southern Germany (where the need is), literally shut down Germany's power grid.
Between the economic and physical performance of transient renewable sources, the project has been an abysmal failure.
So we need to improve our grids. Optimally we need to create a global grid so no matter where the sun is shining or the wind blowing, the power can be sent to whoever needs it. The next thing we need to do is create abundant power storage in the form of global batteries. So when these systems produce surplus energy, it can be stored for use when there is no wind and no sun (every night.)
A clear picture of the future?
At best you get a few scenarios that could roughly play out i think.
@@teiuq
Hi Teiuq, I personally think the best bet is to look at what's being said by people who've made accurate long and short term predictions in the face of exponentially changing technology, geopolitics, and environmental impact. For instance, Ray Kurzweil has a consistently high accuracy when predicting the future. Its clear his view of the world is more consistent with changing reality, than most folks.
Which is why Google pays him millions to give them a heads up of what's important and what's not.
This guy is talking nonsense.
China is the big emerging superpower on the horizon with Japan, India behind.
China is already # 1 economy as per PPP terms.
Listen to Kishore Mahbubani to know the true picture.
This just proves, never try to predict the future.
100 % correct,the usa will be the must powerfull country in the world,in the next 10 years,but all can change if the us reduce it's military power,the need to reactived the economy and apply more protectionism.
We are so powerful,we can't secure the Southern border!
Noble alliances, 🇺🇸 🇵🇱❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
All economies are cyclic, that’s why we invest somewhere else when our locality is in the down cycle. U can analyze all ur life but really it is that simple, without the fancy financial/economic/micro and macro gibrish.
2o23 ..2071..
Main pŕoblem of USthinking: all want to achieve power, expand and controll the world ! this is a pure and unique US quality...
Not unique at all. The UK used to. China and the Islamic countries also want to control the entire world.
16:40
18:57 ;)
China has changed a lot since this talk, they have pulled out more than half billion out of poverty in the last two decades. On debit USA today has 20 trillion $ debit . which par capita is the highest in the world so what prevents USA to fall into a Debit trap this guy is talking about . China today in PPP terms has bigger economy than USA . And in Do;;ar terms has overtaken Japan and in another two decades will over take USA . Unless USA goes for a war with china which it is likely to do when it finds itself being overtaken by China, During this period china will also change from an export economy to an internal consumption story.
It's private debt he was talking about
Also, the Chinese economy dies as soon as the American navy, or any other navy of decent scale decides to block the Persian gulf and/or the straights of Malacca
@Wally Reyes good point, you can't turn into a consumption economy with such a small youth population relative to total population
Friedman is probably the worst analyst ever.
He never hit any prediction.
+dlpetta His problem is that he's created a grand theory and has refused to let go of that grand theory.
+dlpetta
What is your point?? So far all his predictions turned out to be right:
- did Russia invaded Georgia? Yes
- did Russia invaded Ukraine? Yes
- is Russia supporting Al Asaad in Syria causing further casulities? Yes (they not fighting any isis there)
- Russia is poor and unable to rebuild its old position? Yes
- Germans talking to putin? Yes (they put sanctions on russia after invading eastern part of Ukraine, ok but at the same time they helping putin to build gas pipes into EU to make whole Europe even more depended on russian gas and oil (which is shit quality comparing to oil from middle east)
- is entire EU a gay club unable to act? Yes.
Who is the ONLY country to keep that short ass putin within his borders? USA (NOT EU).
Obviously you never ever read any of his books.
You just don't like what he is saying.. Are you one of the soviet propagandist?
+oyek arm I have his books The Next 100 Years and The Next Decade, I'm American, and those things you just listed are not all of his predictions. George Friedman wrote a book in the early 90s called The Coming War with Japan. In it, he said that with the USSR totally collapsing because of the failure of communism, China going through social upheaval because of pro-democracy protests, and Japan's need to secure naval routes and natural resources, Japan was going to engage in a massive military buildup and end up in a war with the US in 10 to 20 years. Over twenty years have passed and there was no war between the two nations. The Next 100 Years is a revision of that theory.
+Brett Quimby "he never hit any prediction" that's your own words, seem like you were wrong
Brett Quimby Usa and Japan are in war. An economical one...
(Tbh, i first time see this man so I dont care about that)
Japan is still in lots of trouble. Japan has a slow growing birthrate, and a rapidly aging population. Japan is also racially homogenous and has strict racial policy, so therefore they can not grow like other powers like America, or even Great Britain for that matter.
They know that, not only that, the rest of the world knows that! They literally as a culture want to die and disappear.