It's hard to get my brain around how ginormous that storm from the 8th and 9th was. It stretched south all the way to Mexico. It was covering a VAST amt of the Earth's surface. 🤯
Awesome analysis as always, Trey! It really was fascinating having these events occur so close to each other; with the second one potentially looking even more potent due to the trough geometry, and then ending up struggling due to the thermodynamic issues (which I thought were pretty well forecast, I think the SPC was a bit aggressive initially putting that large Enhanced risk/10% hatched tornado threat well north/northeast of where most global model/NAM runs showed the warm sector developing inland; their forecast probably represented a best(or worst)-case scenario where the sheer strength of the low-level response might have been able to overcome the initial cool/stable air in place) but also the issues with the best forcing lifting away from what little unstable warm sector there was, and the speed of the cold front. A couple of other things I note: 1.) As we know it's unwise to discount a severe threat solely based on time of year, but I think it being January really did limit both of these events to some extent, and especially the second one. If it were late April/May and we had a 71/64 airmass in place ahead of that main triple point/under that jet streak...yikes. 2.) The HRRR did a pretty good job, especially within its hourly update (18-hour) range, with consistently forecasting that a.) some nasty (and potentially tornadic) supercells would fire along that confluence band and come ashore in either far southern Alabama or the western Florida panhandle before sunrise Tuesday morning; and b.) the WAA regime supercells Tuesday afternoon would mostly remain over the Atlantic.
Thank you! Yeah, in each case, we had a prior cold frontal intrusion which swept the moist air into the Gulf. If this was in the spring, that probably wouldn't have been the case, and we would've had much more unstable airmass make its way farther inland, which could have been pretty nasty. The CAMs, including the HRRR, did do a pretty good job, especially with the Florida Panhandle supercells on the morning of the 9th.
There was a tornado outbreak about four years earlier from January 10 and 11 of 2020 that you may want to look into and do a case study. There were 80 tornadoes over that two-day period, including 11 in my home state of Texas, and even one in my home county of Angelina in East Texas. There were some tornadoes in the Metroplex on the 10th, which is where I was because my sister ended up getting married the next day and I was part of the wedding. I came close to going through a tornado that day in McKinney as there was a confirmed EF0 in Irving. I remember how nervous I was about the weather that day. The strongest tornadoes in that outbreak were rated as an EF2, but most were EF0 or EF1
Finally got around to checking this out. I kept track of Florida morning tornadoes on the 9th. Those were pretty damn impressive how well the supercells held together as they were coming on shore and I was surprised actually how many chasers were out there on that morning. I would not have done that given the conditions and lack of visibility even though you could reasonably predict where these tornadoes were gonna come on shore by about 20-25 minutes. This had elements of a strong spring set up for the most part but while it didn't exactly pan out for an early tornado threat in TX/LA, once the jet and sheer got cooking past 3am on the 9th, Florida and the immediate warm sector was really cooking on the tornadic storms. It's still weird that TX/LA set up as you said didn't fully verify but still the warm sector was soooooo small and tight but damn it got rolling past LA. The hodographs and SRH values were so nuts as per the verified soundings. As far as the threat for the rest of the 9th I completely lost track of that day given the sudden passing of my Stepdad out of fucking no where in the evening and understandably I was in no shape or care to keep track of how the set up panned out but now I can see this pretty much did pan out as expected. That system really held on well cause I know that Tuesday night for Albany this was producing so much rain on that unexpected night. I did somewhat keep up with the set up on the 11/12th but again I was kind of in a funk for the most part. That I do know had some pretty modest potential going in to the set up but man that completely fell apart coming into the day of as far as I remember and the SPC kept decreasing the threat. Hehe went from an all hazards to a....well.....lackluster event. I an intrigued on new research you mentioned about the new updrafts and tornado potential on the WSW side of the main supercell. I think there has been some hints of something like during the El Reno EF3 and Moore EF5 tornado where you had the little pieces that got fed into the main supercell to spawn those beasts. I do wonder if it's something that has to do with them aiding in microscale inflow from aloft and below as they merge with the main storm. Like the interaction with the parent supercell makes it act like a "bigger storm" as they merge and it aids in the little inflows they have to the main storm.
Great breakdown as always especially the comparisons between the two events. Comparing each event to the other sure does help in understanding why we did or why we didn't have a more widespread tornado outbreak . Having both occurred pretty much over the same location strengthens my attempt at understanding mother nature.
A small tornado occurred at my workplace in the initial event, the Bartram Springs EF-0 tornado in Duval County (Jacksonville) FL. It is not highlighted in the storm reports here, however.
I believe NWS Tallahassee and Jacksonville have been adding a few new tornado tracks to the database since the event occurred. Sometimes the smaller tornadoes rated well after the fact won’t show up in the storm reports, only in the official database.
Could you do a case study on the May 28 2020 Jonesboro Arkansas Tornado, It occurred in my hometown and was really a surprise because the moderate risk was way to the north
I was watching Evan Fryberger when the panama City tornado happened. I was very scared to see what wpuld come put of it. For a few seconds on the beach cam you could see a large wedge. Glad it didnt take any lives
The morning of the 12th in Warren Arkansas the I know a tree got knocked down, power poles was broken and a bunch of limbs (over 2" around) was broken. I was told that Hampton, Arkansas got hit harder but I never seen it with my own eyes so I can't tell you how bad the town was hit.
I made a community post about it earlier this morning; I certainly have my eye on Wednesday. It's a very unique setup for the Southeast, with just a subtle shortwave embedded within broad SW flow aloft. Couple that with ample moisture and it could be a recipe for discrete mini-supercells with all hazards possible.
@@kevinjoyce285Right now, I'd expect them to put up a maybe 2% with tonight's D2 outlook, but I don't expect it to be a widespread tornado outbreak or anything of that nature.
me personally I believe if this was April & May and June when dew point temperatures are usually in the mid to upper 60s and low to mid 70s combined with air temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and low to mid 90s instead of January when dew point temperatures and air temperatures are usually not that high? that second severe weather event probably most likely would've sure enough verified especially due to the cape values???
I think it more so had to do with the fact that we'd had prior cold frontal intrusions that swept the moisture out into the Gulf...that tends to happen a lot in the cool season than it does in the spring, so there very well may have been a more expansive, unstable warm sector had this happened in spring.
@ConvectiveChronicles like when you go to the black graph with the with the green, red squiggly lines there's what looks like upsidedown Fs and they start tilting horizontally what's that showing wind direction and strength?
@@zal88 Ah...yes, those are wind barbs that show wind speed and direction. The direction is which way the stem points (through the flags toward the end of the stem), and the speed is dictated by the number of flags. This video will tell you more about how to read these: ua-cam.com/video/U1r2nFbwpVI/v-deo.html
@ConvectiveChronicles thanks! I've been interested in better reading a radar to detect tornados and your channel is very great definitely learning alot at least from what I can understand!
Great break down! Very tricky set up for both weeks and all 4 severe weather threat days!
Thank you! Agreed!
It's hard to get my brain around how ginormous that storm from the 8th and 9th was. It stretched south all the way to Mexico. It was covering a VAST amt of the Earth's surface. 🤯
I just finished up my Synoptic Meteorology courses last semester, and it was a treat tracking these systems in real time.
Awesome analysis as always, Trey! It really was fascinating having these events occur so close to each other; with the second one potentially looking even more potent due to the trough geometry, and then ending up struggling due to the thermodynamic issues (which I thought were pretty well forecast, I think the SPC was a bit aggressive initially putting that large Enhanced risk/10% hatched tornado threat well north/northeast of where most global model/NAM runs showed the warm sector developing inland; their forecast probably represented a best(or worst)-case scenario where the sheer strength of the low-level response might have been able to overcome the initial cool/stable air in place) but also the issues with the best forcing lifting away from what little unstable warm sector there was, and the speed of the cold front.
A couple of other things I note:
1.) As we know it's unwise to discount a severe threat solely based on time of year, but I think it being January really did limit both of these events to some extent, and especially the second one. If it were late April/May and we had a 71/64 airmass in place ahead of that main triple point/under that jet streak...yikes.
2.) The HRRR did a pretty good job, especially within its hourly update (18-hour) range, with consistently forecasting that a.) some nasty (and potentially tornadic) supercells would fire along that confluence band and come ashore in either far southern Alabama or the western Florida panhandle before sunrise Tuesday morning; and b.) the WAA regime supercells Tuesday afternoon would mostly remain over the Atlantic.
Thank you! Yeah, in each case, we had a prior cold frontal intrusion which swept the moist air into the Gulf. If this was in the spring, that probably wouldn't have been the case, and we would've had much more unstable airmass make its way farther inland, which could have been pretty nasty. The CAMs, including the HRRR, did do a pretty good job, especially with the Florida Panhandle supercells on the morning of the 9th.
There was a tornado outbreak about four years earlier from January 10 and 11 of 2020 that you may want to look into and do a case study. There were 80 tornadoes over that two-day period, including 11 in my home state of Texas, and even one in my home county of Angelina in East Texas. There were some tornadoes in the Metroplex on the 10th, which is where I was because my sister ended up getting married the next day and I was part of the wedding. I came close to going through a tornado that day in McKinney as there was a confirmed EF0 in Irving. I remember how nervous I was about the weather that day. The strongest tornadoes in that outbreak were rated as an EF2, but most were EF0 or EF1
Finally got around to checking this out. I kept track of Florida morning tornadoes on the 9th. Those were pretty damn impressive how well the supercells held together as they were coming on shore and I was surprised actually how many chasers were out there on that morning. I would not have done that given the conditions and lack of visibility even though you could reasonably predict where these tornadoes were gonna come on shore by about 20-25 minutes. This had elements of a strong spring set up for the most part but while it didn't exactly pan out for an early tornado threat in TX/LA, once the jet and sheer got cooking past 3am on the 9th, Florida and the immediate warm sector was really cooking on the tornadic storms. It's still weird that TX/LA set up as you said didn't fully verify but still the warm sector was soooooo small and tight but damn it got rolling past LA. The hodographs and SRH values were so nuts as per the verified soundings. As far as the threat for the rest of the 9th I completely lost track of that day given the sudden passing of my Stepdad out of fucking no where in the evening and understandably I was in no shape or care to keep track of how the set up panned out but now I can see this pretty much did pan out as expected. That system really held on well cause I know that Tuesday night for Albany this was producing so much rain on that unexpected night.
I did somewhat keep up with the set up on the 11/12th but again I was kind of in a funk for the most part. That I do know had some pretty modest potential going in to the set up but man that completely fell apart coming into the day of as far as I remember and the SPC kept decreasing the threat. Hehe went from an all hazards to a....well.....lackluster event.
I an intrigued on new research you mentioned about the new updrafts and tornado potential on the WSW side of the main supercell. I think there has been some hints of something like during the El Reno EF3 and Moore EF5 tornado where you had the little pieces that got fed into the main supercell to spawn those beasts. I do wonder if it's something that has to do with them aiding in microscale inflow from aloft and below as they merge with the main storm. Like the interaction with the parent supercell makes it act like a "bigger storm" as they merge and it aids in the little inflows they have to the main storm.
Great breakdown as always especially the comparisons between the two events. Comparing each event to the other sure does help in understanding why we did or why we didn't have a more widespread tornado outbreak . Having both occurred pretty much over the same location strengthens my attempt at understanding mother nature.
Thank you!
A small tornado occurred at my workplace in the initial event, the Bartram Springs EF-0 tornado in Duval County (Jacksonville) FL. It is not highlighted in the storm reports here, however.
I believe NWS Tallahassee and Jacksonville have been adding a few new tornado tracks to the database since the event occurred. Sometimes the smaller tornadoes rated well after the fact won’t show up in the storm reports, only in the official database.
Could you do a case study on the May 28 2020 Jonesboro Arkansas Tornado, It occurred in my hometown and was really a surprise because the moderate risk was way to the north
I think you're referring to the March 28, 2020, event? If so, it's on my list.
@@ConvectiveChronicles yep March 28 2020
Great Video Trey
Thank you!
I was watching Evan Fryberger when the panama City tornado happened. I was very scared to see what wpuld come put of it. For a few seconds on the beach cam you could see a large wedge. Glad it didnt take any lives
I would love some more info on qlcs tornadoes because they have a hard time answering any questions about it during spotter training
The morning of the 12th in Warren Arkansas the I know a tree got knocked down, power poles was broken and a bunch of limbs (over 2" around) was broken. I was told that Hampton, Arkansas got hit harder but I never seen it with my own eyes so I can't tell you how bad the town was hit.
Yeah, the late night/early morning stuff in Arkansas did pack a punch
Oh yeah I know it did I was in the middle of it.
A tornado touched down near me in Louisiana in December. I heard it.
Hey Trey. Not sure if you made a community post about it but, what's your opinion for the Wednesday event that could happen based on GFS?
I made a community post about it earlier this morning; I certainly have my eye on Wednesday. It's a very unique setup for the Southeast, with just a subtle shortwave embedded within broad SW flow aloft. Couple that with ample moisture and it could be a recipe for discrete mini-supercells with all hazards possible.
@@ConvectiveChronicles hope the threats at least a 5% not anything too high. Wouldn't like to see that
@@kevinjoyce285Right now, I'd expect them to put up a maybe 2% with tonight's D2 outlook, but I don't expect it to be a widespread tornado outbreak or anything of that nature.
me personally I believe if this was April & May and June when dew point temperatures are usually in the mid to upper 60s and low to mid 70s combined with air temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and low to mid 90s instead of January when dew point temperatures and air temperatures are usually not that high?
that second severe weather event probably most likely would've sure enough verified especially due to the cape values???
I think it more so had to do with the fact that we'd had prior cold frontal intrusions that swept the moisture out into the Gulf...that tends to happen a lot in the cool season than it does in the spring, so there very well may have been a more expansive, unstable warm sector had this happened in spring.
Almost already average amount of tors already for January
could tell me what the upsidedown Fs are?
What are you referring to?
@ConvectiveChronicles like when you go to the black graph with the with the green, red squiggly lines there's what looks like upsidedown Fs and they start tilting horizontally what's that showing wind direction and strength?
@@zal88 Ah...yes, those are wind barbs that show wind speed and direction. The direction is which way the stem points (through the flags toward the end of the stem), and the speed is dictated by the number of flags. This video will tell you more about how to read these:
ua-cam.com/video/U1r2nFbwpVI/v-deo.html
@ConvectiveChronicles thanks! I've been interested in better reading a radar to detect tornados and your channel is very great definitely learning alot at least from what I can understand!
@@zal88 Thank you! I do plan on kicking off a radar and satellite video series here soon.
Yesss