I felt a bit more kindred to a first principles inspired company of empowered individuals growing together than this whipped and scared group led by ultimatums and threats 😮
Exactly! Very weird to have CEO come in like a wreaking ball, just had huge wins Cybertruck, charging NACS finally industry standard, FSD V12. Stock was on uptake… on a completely unrelated note; Ketamine abuse causes anger issues and lashing out.
Internally, people talk about the goal being lasting two years at Tesla, if you can do that the idea is that any other company would hire you at that point. Yes, there are costs to this, but this is the Silicon Valley Playbook. And Tesla gets so many applications, it is not an issue for them to replace talent with other talent.
@@TheGreatestJuJu This is vintage Elon, our memories are short. Remember the dire warning on new rocket engines for SpaceX 2 yrs ago? How about all the fretting over prior yrs employee cuts? In 2018 there was endless litany of FUD about top execs leaving, on and on. Turns out that Tesla retains top talent significantly longer than most Silicon Valley companies.
So its now official: Dry Electrode Cathodes don't last (Red electrolyte in 4680's is the result of dry cathode breakdown in early prototype batteries)! Didn't you do a video about this months ago? What everybody is still missing is that the ultimate success of the Tesla Cybertruck, and Semi rest on the 4680's not only to be cheap but also having much higher power density than any other battery technology. The 500 mile ranges of both depend on it. Also the multi-tab battery design was superposed to reduce internal resistance resulting in flat curve fast charging. Clearly the dry process is causing greater internal resistance not less!
They've already achieved a 500-mile range in the Semi with 2170 cells. They need the 4680 to be where they said it would be for the CyberTruck to be better than instead of slightly worse than the Ford and Rivian competition.
The battery area under a Cybertruck has a lot of empty space filled with structural foam. There is room for a 500 mile battery pack but I suspect that is too costly at the moment to fully populate with batteries
The surplus of cells from the manufactures they have lowered their prices so this is a moving target. Should this ever turn around there will be competition and the 4680 will look good, providing they keep developing it. The 4680 has value even when it is more expensive than purchased cells. It moderates what suppliers can charge Tesla.
A sad result from the dry battery electrode system not working is that the advantage of reducing the chemical solvent air pollution that is caused by the traditional oven method will be lost.
Yeah that was one of the big sells for the tech I was impressed with. It's a good process they just can't ramp production in comparison to blade batteries which are good enough. If they take much longer the solid state tech will be ready for mass production and all of this is moot.
Pressure is one thing. But if there’s new insights required then pressure won’t help. Ideas need to flow. Being scared of being fired is a sure way to keep people making small “safe” increments
The delay in the 4680 battery program has cost Tesla dearly. It seems to be the reason behind postponement of the Semi program. The MY has also been impacted. It is back to 2670 cells, no longer has the structural battery pact and is probably not using both the front and back castings. I am glad Elon has the guts to set a deadline. After several years of fishing and catching very little it's time to cut bait. I just wish Tesla hadn't committed to 4680s so heavily while they were still unproven.
When 4680s was committed to all other batteries where really expensive and Tesla had a road map map to cheap high performance batteries. Unfortunately making batteries at scale is super hard. Panasonic battled with this for years at Nevada. So by the time tesla makes batteries at scale the completion may be ahead of them Catl is doing an amazing job and don't think anyone would have predicted how good they would be a few years ago
The original thesis was the need for containment of the higher energy density components way back when. If you go to LFP, the containment issues go away.
@DanaOredson Why do you think that a group which couldn't come up with the idea would be better able to build it? Clearly the problem is the dry process, if they simply reverted to the wet process (larger space in separate buildings) they should be able to maintain mfgring.
If they abandon the 4680, then what? Will Tesla always rely on others to make the same battery? That doesn't seem logical and aligned with Elon’s first-principles approach.
They won't abandon 4680. More Reuters type nonsense. They are doing what they did with unboxedd manufacturing, taking the innovations that worked and tabling the ones that didn't for a later date after the backlogs are cleared. M2 must come out no later than end of 2025. Cybertruck must scale to 150k run rate by end of this year and Semi needs to scale as quickly as possible with batteries that are affordable.
@@avgjoe59694680 promised abilities and unboxed 50% cost savings are both clear vaporware. Not sure how much more you need to see to recognize this. Neither are happening for a reason.
The 4860 is clearly a dud. At launch it was claimed production would reach 100GB a year by 2020, reality was around 1GB. It also more expensive, less power dense and charges slower than even the old 2070. Meanwhile CATL is powering ahead with new better and cheaper batteries being launched every 6 months.
@@boostav Given the very low production rate and the amount of time and resources inversted in the 4860 I very much doubt that. By any metric the reality of the 4860 has fallen way below the promises/expectations made when it was launched.
Whatever the cost, I have yet to see any concrete, reliable, verifiable empirical confirmation that these 4680 batteries are matching the power and range that E'loon originally predicted they would provide.
Thanks for producing this. Some interesting insights into Tesla's innovation processes. I do think the 4680 program could get c canceled if it isnt making enough progress. $ spent isnt a good reason not to; thats the sunk cost fallacy. Hopefully it works out though
Even it is not economical for Tesla to produce batteries, if other batteries suppliers don't know Tesla s batteries cost more, Tesla will be able negotiate better prices from their battery suppliers if they think Tesla will make their own if they don't give Tesla a good price
Help me out here please. Here in Europe we get our Model 3's from Shanghai and our Y's from Berlin. None of those use 4680 cells so we have no experience of how they perform in terms of charging speed or durability. My understanding was that some of the Model Y made in the USA had 4680 cells, depending on the model. Do they have a better energy density than 2170 or batteries from CATL or BYD? Do they charge quicker? Do they suffer less degradation? Tesla announced the 4680 at 'Battery Day' in 2020, nearly 4 years ago with the idea that manufacturing costs would be greatly reduced and energy density would be higher. This seems not to have happened, at least not yet. I imagine Mr. Musk is pondering the question of at what point do we stop pouring money into this. Any information of how 4680's perform in actual use would be interesting.
The 4680 was unveiled to much fanfare, but it hasn't really achieved what it set out to achieve. I'm of the opinion that Tesla is NOT the world leader in battery technology and that several legacy companies and numerous startups are ahead or way ahead of Tesla.
My understanding is they will buy lithium iron phosphate batteries from CATL when they build their US factory. US made batteries are important to Tesla because of the tax incentives.
CATL seem to performing miracles. They are going to be super hard to beat . Have a battery of 500w/kg nearly in full production and testing it allegedly for powering a 747😮
Maybe there are very big changes coming in batteries (500 /W Chinese)??? layoff of charger team. different charging technology needed?? If the battery is not cheap enough it can’t compete with more efficient batteries that are just invented and will come on stream. This new 4680 factory might be written off and replaced by by new technology??
Not looking good. Less headache and more efficient use of resources to just source cells externally. With other OEMs scaling back EV programs, there's now an oversupply of cheap cells.
The 4680 batteries are not more expensive than the Panasonic or CATL cells if you factor in the government subsidies for manufacturing battery cells domestically.
Tesla has been trying to produce the 4680 batteries for more than 3 years, and is way behind in its production processes in terms of meeting its established & aggressive targets.
The dry anode electrode is relatively easy. To date, however, no company has ever succeeded in dry cathode electrode. Tesla has been importing big rolls of cathode electrode (made from wet process) from China/Korea. Tesla buys cathode material from L&F and LG Chem (Korea). Tesla also imports 4680 cans and jelly-roll insertion machines and many other manufacturing equipment from Korea. So, Tesla has been just assembling 4680 batteries. Note that LG Chem has been investing in Li-ion battery technology since 1993. It would be almost impossible for Tesla to catch up with the battery technology in just a few years. Tesla should have bought a battery company (LG EnSol, SK On, Samsung SDI or Panasonic) instead of wasting time and money on building its own 4680 batteries. The good news is that LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI and Kumyang will mass produce 46xx (4680, 4695, 46110, 46120) soon.
Perhaps Tesla will just shutter the Northern Cathode Plant in Austin. The operations of that portion of the factory seems to be a mystery to this day. I wonder if the issues with DBE cathodes manufacturing has hamstrung bringing that facility online? Damn shame if so.
And yet they hyped up vaporware years ago like they somehow knew better than experienced battery companies. Yet some people will excuse this for optimism rather than the obvious intentional misrepresentations that they were.
@@singed8853 it wasn’t vaporware. It was a design goal that they wanted to achieve. It’s difficult and they haven’t given up. But no one else has been able to do it at least on the cathode side. They did accomplish it on the anode side
@@royphillips7644why is Tesla pitching goals or doing presentations on goals when they are precisely nowhere down the road to achieving them? How about they develop a product first and talk about it later? I’m convinced Elon is intentionally making false claims to pump the stock price. These aren’t real goals in my view. They’re lies. Feel free to reach a different conclusion but I know people that work in the battery industry and they laughed at the battery day ‘goals’.
@@singed8853at battery day Elon said the goal was supposed to fully ramped by I think 2026/2027. There’s still time and even if it wasn’t thats why Elon said it “should”
If Tesla discontinues 4680 production, its suppliers will increase their prices. The suppliers will see increased demand and no competition from Tesla. Tesla production is acting as a spur to keep the supplier prices down.
Everyone is forgetting the fact that other battery suppliers are cintinuing to ramp up and run their lines cheaper and more efficiently and more capacity per cell. Every battery manufacturer is getting more efficient and because of supply and demand . Supplier prices are going down.
Some time ago, I said that Tesla’s 4680 project maybe overtaken by battery advances elsewhere. This may have happened! Lots of sunk costs in the production lines and cathode building make walking away difficult.
Still need to move forward on your own batteries if not just for US and maybe Europe. Who knows what tarrifs will be in place in the future. Copy CATL, i think they may do this with the renting of equipment.
You make great videos! Sure hope the R&D concentration on 4680 does not preclude other format innovation. Thinking WAAAY outside the box; what about highway segments that are 10 miles of solar followed by ten miles of battery bar; or other format, storage and a continuous electrical pick up track for cars and trucks only. E.g.; not for 2 wheel motorcycles.
The 4680 battery program has been a complete failure! Tesla should abandon battery manufacture altogether and rely on CATL and Panasonic for batteries. They are trying to do too much. CATL produce the best batteries in the world and are probably a decade ahead of anyone else including Tesla!
@@jackylsmith8138yes really. They were in fact correct and said so at the time. This failure was considered essentially a certainty by others in the battery industry. Just like the bogus ‘unboxed’ vaporware we are hearing about. Manufacturers say the cost savings hype from Tesla is bogus and we are seeing that. Tesla said it can save 50% cost and years later they have built zero lines to utilize this miracle tech. More lies.
Chinese battery manufacturers are leaping ahead with newer technology. Elan is making a deal with CATL to manufacture batteries in the US. I wonder if Tesla might not just drop the 4680 batteries completely and make a supply deal with the Chinese.
A question for @Cleanerwatt: on one hand, we are a bit uneasy seeing that some 90+ Chinese EV startups is chasing Tesla's tail; on the other hand, Tesla still seems the greatest customer of the battery companies. We remember well the times when the five largest battery makers were hardly able to satisfy Tesla's growth. Could you make a deeper analysis of what % of the world battery supply is utilized by Tesla?
Supply and demand. Currently there is a surplus of batteries, so Tesla can get batteries super cheap. At some time in the future batteries will become scarce again and potentially super expensive. Tesla needs the hedge of its own batteries. If it takes it eg 3 years to sort out the process Tesla may have the luxury of it not mattering in the short term. But when the supply crunch comes it will be life and death for Tesla if they can make it cannot make their own batteries them selves
7:07 I doubt Elon would consider sunk cost a reason to continue a hyper expensive program without some expectation of success, but I do really want the 4680 cell to be a success at Tesla. It sounds like they are close, with but one more technological hurdle (the cathode)
The dry electrode tech might be a dead end. I think Elon is right on this one, battery production is being ramped by many companies so if the 4680 can’t compete it might benefit Tesla to utilize its resources elsewhere. That said, I hope Tesla can get the 4680s to compete. We will just have to wait and see
Letting go of the batteries materials team is very important because c a t l just developed game-changing batteries that will be inside of the model y project Juniper
The problem with the battery might manufacture is one of the two big technical issues Tesla has faced. The other was the FSD development dead end. They had to switch to the large languages model self learning model. And Karpathy go the chop for that.
Andre left on his own free will. He still has find memories of Tesla and even Elon. He wanted to do something different. He has moved on from openai after 1 year there
Andre said he tried end to end neural network for fsd at Tesla. but the data was to sparce to train it and he just prior to V12 release, posted warnings about how hard it would be to get V12 of fsd working . Tesla have invented a secret source after Andre left for V12 which could well be using groq
I doubt Elon said this about end of yr for 4680 team to reduce costs. Why, because 4680 was never meant to be the lowest cost battery. It was meant to be a hedge againnt high battery prices and supply bottlenecks due to more and more car xompanies going EV and driving up prices and reducing availability to supply. Now things have changedto excess supply and also additional supply of 4680-style batteries it may seem to Elon he can get as such supply as he needs. Well he stupid because thing could change for the worst and suppply tightens. Things in commodity sectors tend yo go from feast and then famine. Best to ramp own production and R&D for US and EU 4680 local production. China will just have make batteries for China thus inducing excesss supply. It will take years to remove the excess battery supply.
i did ear it ritht --- without the wet process process cathode? I suppose you mean without the dry process cathode. Optimized first the wet process cathode.
Hmmm... I understand Elon being impatient, but it does make strategic sense to make a significant number of their cells. Obviously they need to make them as cheaply as possible, but once the manufacturing challenges have been met, they can gradually switch chemistries as they develop.
Thank You for the analysis that i have been waiting for, for such a long time. 4680 underpins far too many products to keep waiting and waiting and waiting on the cathode. Tabling that for now and optimizing the rest is a relief. They were clearly not close and this would wreck Semi and Cybertruck. They need to get the costs down, yield Way up (clearly stalled over the interminable cathode issue) and the phase 2 really needs to start soon as 20% increments are Not cutting it. Need to see 3x the cyber truck run rate by EOY and energy density to 300+ wh/kg even if its silicon and wet as opposed to dry. If they can get the silicon in the cathode, they can push the density and yield longer range Cybertrucks (this is needed). They also need to get the Semis in production ASAP, though this will take another 18 months or so as they are just building the factory now... very, very late in the game. Not sure What's going on in Mexico, but the nonsense in Germany shows that they Really need that as the German government is clearly playing games, much like the Biden administration. There are a lot of balls in the air now. Production of the Model 2 and 4680, Musk compensation and getting far away from Delaware, really would like to see some of this settle in the next few month... still its great to see Musk breaking the 4680 bottleneck. That was the most frustrating of all.
Elon fait du business...Quand un truc n'est pas rentable à long terme, il arrête. La techno des batteries étaient (et est encore) améliorable, d'ou les 4680, idem pour les superchargeurs...une fois l'optimum atteint, il passe a autre chose !!!
The "Dry Process" plant isn't even completed yet - never mind production. Wait & see. With the triad of lithium mines, refining & the soon to be online Austin plant, it's just a matter of time. This is Elon's well tested (if not harsh) method of management. Nothing more.
One of his chief strengths is to rapidly switch directions, vintage Elon. Try fail, change somethings and try again, sometimes abandon a path completely with contempt for the sunk cost fallacy. It works. They recently tossed out most of a decade of coding for FSD, that has been a spectacular success, imagine the internal stress over that decision initially. They even tried batt swapping briefly, over a decade ago, all sorts of dead ends. Meanwhile competitors like Nio get consumed by a bad trajectory and waste away with batt swapping disaster.
Tesla was supposed to be a leader in industry… on battery and charging. Airing your dirty laundry is ridiculous. What happened to all of the “battery day” inventions? As an investor I feel lied to…
If they had said in a press release "We're going to make batteries, they will be different...... That is all" . There would have been *SO MUCH* "discussion" *DEMANDING* they tell us everything about How, What, When, performance, etc, etc, etc? Would YOU have been happy? Doubtful. . "Damned if they didn't and (maybe) Damned if they did"?
4680 was just another example of hyping unproven technology. Elon is the master of shameless promotion before a technology is actually ready, but to his credit, it does get the investment dollars flowing which many times is the only way tech advances quickly.
I prefer honest truth than sweet lies. As companies get big, its easy to become wasteful. What we are whitnessing is Elon keeping the original spirit of Tesla alive to not become a fat pig of a company like all the others.
Was the first question asked of a man who built a flattish platform and stuck two "Round things" on the sides. . (Called it a "cart") . (I will GUARANTEE the Donkey fleet owners were NOT happy)
@rogerstarkey5390 I have no issue with robots doing dangerous work etc but there's a lot social issues that will arise when jobs that should be done by humans are done by robots . Humans will adapt but at what cost?
Just purchased a MYLR assembled in Fremont, when I asked what model battery it in it, sales told me it is 2680. I tried to correct him, by asking, did your mean 4680? He confirmed to me, it is 2680. Confused. Is there a 2680 in Tesla world?
Anyone could have predicted this years ago. Why would you think a completely new battery tech from an in experienced company would work after almost 150 years of battery development. Even if it is possible it would be cost prohibitive. This is because the more complex or difficult a technology the higher the cost. But too be honest I'm surprised they haven't fingered out the dry cathode issues yet. I heard a year ago they had a break through so was that another lie. It seems like they are trying to prove the entire scientific and battery industry as fools this is a vary arrogant approach to engineering and will ultimately prove them the fools. Engineering breakthroughs have always been incremental and time tested. But let's be honest here by now they should at least have the napkin maths on if it's going to work. Since they are working on all the current production issues there should be no more surprises at this point. Its a little like there autonomous driving again making bold claims and even promises without even a working demo. Its getting to be obvious that Tesla is now mostly built on a hype train of never ending promises. Hasn't CATL built a solid state battery? I am tiered of hearing about Tesla almost tech. Showing is believing and they have shown vary little. I see a demo of the great FSD beta the other day and the auto summon. It turns out it can't navigate a empty parking lot 20 metres in the rain. What chance in a busy shopping parking lot with pedestrians. Good luck I have lost my faith in them. Lucky I'm not an investor but at least as a standard electric car manufacture it might be worth the $89 billion with market share.
I bet the 4680 plant cannot beat CATL. Doesn't matter what time line😂😂. That's the reason for the 100% tarrif on Chinese EV products. Way to go, Uncle Joe 😂
Its funny you say that pressure on the team will reault in meeting the goals of producing 4680 at a cost lower than their current battery suppliers. 4680 will go down in the history as a super hyped up battery with no benefits.
Toyota EVs are already driving around with solid state batteries that will do 1000km and charge in under 5 minutes. How can you compete with that? Phillip.
The 4680 has been hugely frustrating. Lousy productivity, poor power to weight. Hopefully they’ll get it right soon. I do wonder if a 4695 would be more optimal.
I think if they can't figure out how to get the cost below their suppliers, Elon will drop the program all together. He has no emotional attachment to these projects that are not working or no-longer of value.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003 I think he would drop the cybertruck if they fail to scale up and have it making money by next year this time. I think he could just wipe all tesla operations out, outside of AI.
I just wonder what project Musk he is cancelling on? I can't find any. The 4680 and Super chargers are just rumours. He even reminded on X that Super chargers investment in 2024 will be 500 M$ for expansion.
It’s more "development" is hard. DBE is new process which nobody else has working. Rest of 4680 integrated assembly inc folded tabs? I’d like to know. Most players stuck making pouch cells - prone to failure. Even CATL prismatic.
How many times can Elon get away with providing false information on their battery days, ai days, etc.? Its insane how many Tesla fans have used that obviously false information to proclaim it is game over for the rest of the industry.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003because of the robot and AI, Tesla should be bigger than Apple & Saudi Aramco combined 😂😂😂 you guys must sell everything you have and by the dip of TSLA now 😂😂😂
It’s a moving target because the suppliers can also reduce costs.
They are significantly limited by overhead and profit margin.
I felt a bit more kindred to a first principles inspired company of empowered individuals growing together than this whipped and scared group led by ultimatums and threats 😮
...they were always hounded, but it's only coming out now how much.
Exactly! Very weird to have CEO come in like a wreaking ball, just had huge wins Cybertruck, charging NACS finally industry standard, FSD V12. Stock was on uptake… on a completely unrelated note; Ketamine abuse causes anger issues and lashing out.
@@TheGreatestJuJu I've wondered how soon after all this he'd father a child with Miley Cyrus actually.
Internally, people talk about the goal being lasting two years at Tesla, if you can do that the idea is that any other company would hire you at that point. Yes, there are costs to this, but this is the Silicon Valley Playbook. And Tesla gets so many applications, it is not an issue for them to replace talent with other talent.
@@TheGreatestJuJu This is vintage Elon, our memories are short. Remember the dire warning on new rocket engines for SpaceX 2 yrs ago? How about all the fretting over prior yrs employee cuts? In 2018 there was endless litany of FUD about top execs leaving, on and on. Turns out that Tesla retains top talent significantly longer than most Silicon Valley companies.
So its now official: Dry Electrode Cathodes don't last (Red electrolyte in 4680's is the result of dry cathode breakdown in early prototype batteries)! Didn't you do a video about this months ago?
What everybody is still missing is that the ultimate success of the Tesla Cybertruck, and Semi rest on the 4680's not only to be cheap but also having much higher power density than any other battery technology. The 500 mile ranges of both depend on it. Also the multi-tab battery design was superposed to reduce internal resistance resulting in flat curve fast charging. Clearly the dry process is causing greater internal resistance not less!
That's a bummer and I hadn't heard that. You need to post a video.
They've already achieved a 500-mile range in the Semi with 2170 cells. They need the 4680 to be where they said it would be for the CyberTruck to be better than instead of slightly worse than the Ford and Rivian competition.
If they switch to CATL they'll get hit with tariffs.
*CATL are doing some excellent work on battery costs and power density the CYBER TRUCK can use several different battery types.*
The battery area under a Cybertruck has a lot of empty space filled with structural foam. There is room for a 500 mile battery pack but I suspect that is too costly at the moment to fully populate with batteries
i don't think "pressure" on the team will make a difference. i'm sure they were working as hard as possible and it simply can't be done.
The surplus of cells from the manufactures they have lowered their prices so this is a moving target. Should this ever turn around there will be competition and the 4680 will look good, providing they keep developing it. The 4680 has value even when it is more expensive than purchased cells. It moderates what suppliers can charge Tesla.
Exactly.
The time for 4680 might be when (IF) "other" manufacturers*return* to the EV side.
Based on extensive technical knowledge, or on own tendency to give up?
There is no such thing as "it can't be done".
@@tedmoss Your knowledge of physics is failing you. There's an infinite number of things that can't be done.
A sad result from the dry battery electrode system not working is that the advantage of reducing the chemical solvent air pollution that is caused by the traditional oven method will be lost.
Yeah that was one of the big sells for the tech I was impressed with. It's a good process they just can't ramp production in comparison to blade batteries which are good enough. If they take much longer the solid state tech will be ready for mass production and all of this is moot.
Pressure is one thing. But if there’s new insights required then pressure won’t help. Ideas need to flow. Being scared of being fired is a sure way to keep people making small “safe” increments
Not at Tesla.
There are no useful battery innovations going on at Tesla. Just empty hype.
The delay in the 4680 battery program has cost Tesla dearly. It seems to be the reason behind postponement of the Semi program. The MY has also been impacted. It is back to 2670 cells, no longer has the structural battery pact and is probably not using both the front and back castings. I am glad Elon has the guts to set a deadline. After several years of fishing and catching very little it's time to cut bait. I just wish Tesla hadn't committed to 4680s so heavily while they were still unproven.
When 4680s was committed to all other batteries where really expensive and Tesla had a road map map to cheap high performance batteries. Unfortunately making batteries at scale is super hard. Panasonic battled with this for years at Nevada. So by the time tesla makes batteries at scale the completion may be ahead of them
Catl is doing an amazing job and don't think anyone would have predicted how good they would be a few years ago
Tabless design's advantages for cooling, reduced resistance, alone should make 4680 a mandatory future item.
Yeah, Tesla can purchase cathode foil till DBE sorted.
Bigger cells make sense - for nickel chemistry.
LFP easier to buy from CATL - if Biden allows.
The original thesis was the need for containment of the higher energy density components way back when. If you go to LFP, the containment issues go away.
Or same tabless be provided by suppliers? I don't think what you are saying has any bearing on *Tesla* being the one the provide it.
@@DanaOredson yet even Panasonic 4680 doesn’t feature tabless AFAIK. Go figure.
How about BMW with 46mm dia, 95 or 125 length. Tabless?
@DanaOredson Why do you think that a group which couldn't come up with the idea would be better able to build it? Clearly the problem is the dry process, if they simply reverted to the wet process (larger space in separate buildings) they should be able to maintain mfgring.
If they abandon the 4680, then what? Will Tesla always rely on others to make the same battery? That doesn't seem logical and aligned with Elon’s first-principles approach.
...or in other words, they will be no better than any other car manufacturer except that Tesla is valued 10x higher.
Meh, "First principles" doesn't mean "Vertical integration". I think you are conflating your subjects.
They won't abandon 4680. More Reuters type nonsense. They are doing what they did with unboxedd manufacturing, taking the innovations that worked and tabling the ones that didn't for a later date after the backlogs are cleared.
M2 must come out no later than end of 2025. Cybertruck must scale to 150k run rate by end of this year and Semi needs to scale as quickly as possible with batteries that are affordable.
@@avgjoe59694680 promised abilities and unboxed 50% cost savings are both clear vaporware. Not sure how much more you need to see to recognize this. Neither are happening for a reason.
The 4860 is clearly a dud.
At launch it was claimed production would reach 100GB a year by 2020, reality was around 1GB.
It also more expensive, less power dense and charges slower than even the old 2070.
Meanwhile CATL is powering ahead with new better and cheaper batteries being launched every 6 months.
That's false, it's currently on par with LG 2170s. Panasonic 2170s are a bit better but not by a significant margin.
@@boostav Given the very low production rate and the amount of time and resources inversted in the 4860 I very much doubt that.
By any metric the reality of the 4860 has fallen way below the promises/expectations made when it was launched.
@@Alantj22 I'm talking about energy density.
@@boostav Its failed on that as well. That's why the Cybertruck doesn't have anywhere near a 500m range.
Whatever the cost, I have yet to see any concrete, reliable, verifiable empirical confirmation that these 4680 batteries are matching the power and range that E'loon originally predicted they would provide.
I did not know that the 4860 situation was so dire. 6 months is not a lot of time in R&D, especially with less resources available.
Thanks for producing this. Some interesting insights into Tesla's innovation processes. I do think the 4680 program could get c
canceled if it isnt making enough progress. $ spent isnt a good reason not to; thats the sunk cost fallacy. Hopefully it works out though
I can pretty much guarantee Elon won't fall for the sunk cost is a reason not to quit trap.
Even it is not economical for Tesla to produce batteries, if other batteries suppliers don't know Tesla s batteries cost more, Tesla will be able negotiate better prices from their battery suppliers if they think Tesla will make their own if they don't give Tesla a good price
I'm@@allangraham970
IMO, Tesla should put all efforts on higher density solid-state batteries and forget about 4680 NMC batteries.
Makes business sense. Eventually have to draw a line under a project if it doesn’t deliver on expectations. Deadline of end of year is sensible.
Who is in charge? Apparently the buck stops just below the CEO.
Help me out here please. Here in Europe we get our Model 3's from Shanghai and our Y's from Berlin. None of those use 4680 cells so we have no experience of how they perform in terms of charging speed or durability. My understanding was that some of the Model Y made in the USA had 4680 cells, depending on the model. Do they have a better energy density than 2170 or batteries from CATL or BYD? Do they charge quicker? Do they suffer less degradation? Tesla announced the 4680 at 'Battery Day' in 2020, nearly 4 years ago with the idea that manufacturing costs would be greatly reduced and energy density would be higher. This seems not to have happened, at least not yet. I imagine Mr. Musk is pondering the question of at what point do we stop pouring money into this. Any information of how 4680's perform in actual use would be interesting.
The 4680 was unveiled to much fanfare, but it hasn't really achieved what it set out to achieve. I'm of the opinion that Tesla is NOT the world leader in battery technology and that several legacy companies and numerous startups are ahead or way ahead of Tesla.
The form factor might survive, even if the chemistry changes.
It’s getting harder to compete with CATL
My understanding is they will buy lithium iron phosphate batteries from CATL when they build their US factory. US made batteries are important to Tesla because of the tax incentives.
CATL seem to performing miracles. They are going to be super hard to beat . Have a battery of 500w/kg nearly in full production and testing it allegedly for powering a 747😮
Maybe there are very big changes coming in batteries (500 /W Chinese)??? layoff of charger team. different charging technology needed?? If the battery is not cheap enough it can’t compete with more efficient batteries that are just invented and will come on stream. This new 4680 factory might be written off and replaced by by new technology??
I believe it’s considered a failure so it may be replaced one day.
Not looking good. Less headache and more efficient use of resources to just source cells externally. With other OEMs scaling back EV programs, there's now an oversupply of cheap cells.
The 4680 program is also a hedge against 3rd party supply getting more expensive as demand from other manufacturers increases.
But only if they can get the 4680 price down!
The 4680 batteries are not more expensive than the Panasonic or CATL cells if you factor in the government subsidies for manufacturing battery cells domestically.
The batteries are more expensive. Subsidies make it cost effective to use the more expensive batteries in US cars for the time being.
Tesla has been trying to produce the 4680 batteries for more than 3 years, and is way behind in its production processes in terms of meeting its established & aggressive targets.
Battery technology is moving so fast they have many better choices now.
That is the closest to the truth we are going to get.
Sure, its called an "INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE"!
It’s more important to get volume and yield of the 4680 and get to cost targets and then revisit dry cTjode
The dry anode electrode is relatively easy. To date, however, no company has ever succeeded in dry cathode electrode. Tesla has been importing big rolls of cathode electrode (made from wet process) from China/Korea. Tesla buys cathode material from L&F and LG Chem (Korea). Tesla also imports 4680 cans and jelly-roll insertion machines and many other manufacturing equipment from Korea. So, Tesla has been just assembling 4680 batteries. Note that LG Chem has been investing in Li-ion battery technology since 1993. It would be almost impossible for Tesla to catch up with the battery technology in just a few years. Tesla should have bought a battery company (LG EnSol, SK On, Samsung SDI or Panasonic) instead of wasting time and money on building its own 4680 batteries. The good news is that LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI and Kumyang will mass produce 46xx (4680, 4695, 46110, 46120) soon.
Ev batteries need to drop in price/ replacements need to be < 5k to get petrol heads on board.
Perhaps Tesla will just shutter the Northern Cathode Plant in Austin. The operations of that portion of the factory seems to be a mystery to this day. I wonder if the issues with DBE cathodes manufacturing has hamstrung bringing that facility online? Damn shame if so.
it is really really hard to jump in cold and compete in batteries. They are competing w/ companies w/ decades of experience
And yet they hyped up vaporware years ago like they somehow knew better than experienced battery companies. Yet some people will excuse this for optimism rather than the obvious intentional misrepresentations that they were.
@@singed8853 it wasn’t vaporware. It was a design goal that they wanted to achieve. It’s difficult and they haven’t given up. But no one else has been able to do it at least on the cathode side. They did accomplish it on the anode side
@@royphillips7644why is Tesla pitching goals or doing presentations on goals when they are precisely nowhere down the road to achieving them? How about they develop a product first and talk about it later?
I’m convinced Elon is intentionally making false claims to pump the stock price. These aren’t real goals in my view. They’re lies. Feel free to reach a different conclusion but I know people that work in the battery industry and they laughed at the battery day ‘goals’.
@@singed8853 true.
@@singed8853at battery day Elon said the goal was supposed to fully ramped by I think 2026/2027. There’s still time and even if it wasn’t thats why Elon said it “should”
If Tesla discontinues 4680 production, its suppliers will increase their prices. The suppliers will see increased demand and no competition from Tesla. Tesla production is acting as a spur to keep the supplier prices down.
@Cleanerwatt I think at 6:40 you meant to say "dry process cathode" when you said "wet process cathode (twice)."
He did but I expect most people understand what he intended to say.
His name is pronounced Bonny
Liquid anode application takes larger facility but is faster and adding small amounts silicon works better
Everyone is forgetting the fact that other battery suppliers are cintinuing to ramp up and run their lines cheaper and more efficiently and more capacity per cell.
Every battery manufacturer is getting more efficient and because of supply and demand . Supplier prices are going down.
Some time ago, I said that Tesla’s 4680 project maybe overtaken by battery advances elsewhere. This may have happened! Lots of sunk costs in the production lines and cathode building make walking away difficult.
I wonder if this came before or after the announcement of the USA import restrictions on batteries and battery materials.
What you said makes no sense, I think you mixed up wet cathode and dry cathode. @6:47. I see someone else beat me to it.
Still need to move forward on your own batteries if not just for US and maybe Europe. Who knows what tarrifs will be in place in the future. Copy CATL, i think they may do this with the renting of equipment.
You make great videos! Sure hope the R&D concentration on 4680 does not preclude other format innovation. Thinking WAAAY outside the box; what about highway segments that are 10 miles of solar followed by ten miles of battery bar; or other format, storage and a continuous electrical pick up track for cars and trucks only. E.g.; not for 2 wheel motorcycles.
Lay off the whole battery team and use CATL condensed battery.
The battery team couldn’t cash the check of vaporware lies written by Elon.
@@singed8853wtf are you talking about???
Past investment is not a reason not to abandon something. Elon is more aware of the sunken cost fallacy than anybody else.
Why is Tesla still using 4680 batters??? the weight is the problem with stile of BATTERY?????
The 4680 battery program has been a complete failure! Tesla should abandon battery manufacture altogether and rely on CATL and Panasonic for batteries. They are trying to do too much. CATL produce the best batteries in the world and are probably a decade ahead of anyone else including Tesla!
That would be a short sighted approach
There is ZERO evidence that firing the entire SC team was anything other than Elon having a fit.
Panasonic was right about dry process .
What'd they say about it? I'm baffled as to why it's so difficult.
Really. They are still struggling with the dry annode process. The dry cathode is much more difficult.
@@jackylsmith8138yes really. They were in fact correct and said so at the time. This failure was considered essentially a certainty by others in the battery industry.
Just like the bogus ‘unboxed’ vaporware we are hearing about. Manufacturers say the cost savings hype from Tesla is bogus and we are seeing that. Tesla said it can save 50% cost and years later they have built zero lines to utilize this miracle tech. More lies.
The faster you go the harder it becomes
Just stubbornness, could have gone with semi-wet process.
Chinese battery manufacturers are leaping ahead with newer technology. Elan is making a deal with CATL to manufacture batteries in the US. I wonder if Tesla might not just drop the 4680 batteries completely and make a supply deal with the Chinese.
Make it work
They can't compete with this technology against BYD or CATL.....not even close. Sad that they couldn't do better.
Tesla will use their inhouse 4680 manufacturing capability to drive down the cost of sourcing cells from suppliers. Its as simple as that.
Around 6:40 you said wet a couple times when it seems you meant dry.
Why would they add 8 lines to production & then cancel
You seem to be able to understand more than most.
Honestly, that's typical of Musk, reversing decisions on a dime...
LOL. You can always wish for. Seems that Tesla is having serious problems with 4680.
After 100% tariff on the Chinese suppliers Tesla will be able to compete.
Then Cleanwatt, your previous 4680 video are all wrong !
When Musk's aspirational goals become employee commitments.
A question for @Cleanerwatt: on one hand, we are a bit uneasy seeing that some 90+ Chinese EV startups is chasing Tesla's tail; on the other hand, Tesla still seems the greatest customer of the battery companies. We remember well the times when the five largest battery makers were hardly able to satisfy Tesla's growth. Could you make a deeper analysis of what % of the world battery supply is utilized by Tesla?
Supply and demand. Currently there is a surplus of batteries, so Tesla can get batteries super cheap. At some time in the future batteries will become scarce again and potentially super expensive. Tesla needs the hedge of its own batteries. If it takes it eg 3 years to sort out the process Tesla may have the luxury of it not mattering in the short term. But when the supply crunch comes it will be life and death for Tesla if they can make it cannot make their own batteries them selves
7:07 I doubt Elon would consider sunk cost a reason to continue a hyper expensive program without some expectation of success, but I do really want the 4680 cell to be a success at Tesla. It sounds like they are close, with but one more technological hurdle (the cathode)
They're breaking ground on their cathode manufacturing plant in Texas.
Just boosting hearsay. SMH
The failure of the 4680s are public knowledge.
@@singed8853 🥴🤣
The dry electrode tech might be a dead end. I think Elon is right on this one, battery production is being ramped by many companies so if the 4680 can’t compete it might benefit Tesla to utilize its resources elsewhere. That said, I hope Tesla can get the 4680s to compete. We will just have to wait and see
Letting go of the batteries materials team is very important because c a t l just developed game-changing batteries that will be inside of the model y project Juniper
The problem with the battery might manufacture is one of the two big technical issues Tesla has faced. The other was the FSD development dead end. They had to switch to the large languages model self learning model. And Karpathy go the chop for that.
Andre left on his own free will. He still has find memories of Tesla and even Elon. He wanted to do something different. He has moved on from openai after 1 year there
Andre said he tried end to end neural network for fsd at Tesla. but the data was to sparce to train it and he just prior to V12 release, posted warnings about how hard it would be to get V12 of fsd working . Tesla have invented a secret source after Andre left for V12 which could well be using groq
Big gains in FSD and AGI are changing Tesla. They are obviously the ultimate goal… so let it roll. Shame to think some good projects may get scrapped
First you put your priorities in order, then you work on number one until it is done, then number two, etc.
@@tedmoss technology is moving forward so quickly that excess time, energy and finances may well be wasted without a change step in priorities
I see little reason for Tesla to persist with the 4680 battery given the progress being made in China commercialising solid state batteries.
Source?
Yeah that's likely a decade away.
Believing what the Chinese say is like fake news
China is not
Making advances in solid state batteries beyond what we are seeing elsewhere.
Aborting the 4680 has been inevitable for a while I reckon.
I highly doubt the whole layoff of the super charger team was necessary.
I doubt Elon said this about end of yr for 4680 team to reduce costs.
Why, because 4680 was never meant to be the lowest cost battery. It was meant to be a hedge againnt high battery prices and supply bottlenecks due to more and more car xompanies going EV and driving up prices and reducing availability to supply.
Now things have changedto excess supply and also additional supply of 4680-style batteries it may seem to Elon he can get as such supply as he needs.
Well he stupid because thing could change for the worst and suppply tightens. Things in commodity sectors tend yo go from feast and then famine.
Best to ramp own production and R&D for US and EU 4680 local production. China will just have make batteries for China thus inducing excesss supply.
It will take years to remove the excess battery supply.
i did ear it ritht --- without the wet process process cathode? I suppose you mean without the dry process cathode. Optimized first the wet process cathode.
Hmmm... I understand Elon being impatient, but it does make strategic sense to make a significant number of their cells. Obviously they need to make them as cheaply as possible, but once the manufacturing challenges have been met, they can gradually switch chemistries as they develop.
Thank You for the analysis that i have been waiting for, for such a long time. 4680 underpins far too many products to keep waiting and waiting and waiting on the cathode.
Tabling that for now and optimizing the rest is a relief.
They were clearly not close and this would wreck Semi and Cybertruck.
They need to get the costs down, yield Way up (clearly stalled over the interminable cathode issue) and the phase 2 really needs to start soon as 20% increments are Not cutting it.
Need to see 3x the cyber truck run rate by EOY and energy density to 300+ wh/kg even if its silicon and wet as opposed to dry.
If they can get the silicon in the cathode, they can push the density and yield longer range Cybertrucks (this is needed).
They also need to get the Semis in production ASAP, though this will take another 18 months or so as they are just building the factory now... very, very late in the game.
Not sure What's going on in Mexico, but the nonsense in Germany shows that they Really need that as the German government is clearly playing games, much like the Biden administration.
There are a lot of balls in the air now. Production of the Model 2 and 4680, Musk compensation and getting far away from Delaware, really would like to see some of this settle in the next few month... still its great to see Musk breaking the 4680 bottleneck. That was the most frustrating of all.
You need pressure to make diamonds, & Elon knows how to apply it.
Good topic well done Sir.
Elon fait du business...Quand un truc n'est pas rentable à long terme, il arrête. La techno des batteries étaient (et est encore) améliorable, d'ou les 4680, idem pour les superchargeurs...une fois l'optimum atteint, il passe a autre chose !!!
End of the year = dead man walking
The "Dry Process" plant isn't even completed yet - never mind production. Wait & see. With the triad of lithium mines, refining & the soon to be online Austin plant, it's just a matter of time. This is Elon's well tested (if not harsh) method of management. Nothing more.
Okay let’s wait 30 years u til we call this project a failure.
If Musk abandoned everything that he has promised but has failed to deliver I suspect there would be no Tesla.
So far he has failed in more than he succeeded.
@@greghelton4668 Nonsense. Read the mission statements and compare to what's been achieved and what's well underway.
One of his chief strengths is to rapidly switch directions, vintage Elon. Try fail, change somethings and try again, sometimes abandon a path completely with contempt for the sunk cost fallacy. It works. They recently tossed out most of a decade of coding for FSD, that has been a spectacular success, imagine the internal stress over that decision initially. They even tried batt swapping briefly, over a decade ago, all sorts of dead ends. Meanwhile competitors like Nio get consumed by a bad trajectory and waste away with batt swapping disaster.
Like the tunnels he was suppose to build in california
@@BlackDub21 yup, though that’s a different company.
Tesla was supposed to be a leader in industry… on battery and charging. Airing your dirty laundry is ridiculous. What happened to all of the “battery day” inventions? As an investor I feel lied to…
Then you weren’t paying attention. 4680 was always a moon shot. And Tesla has never been a leader in battery manufacturing.
If they had said in a press release
"We're going to make batteries, they will be different...... That is all"
.
There would have been *SO MUCH* "discussion" *DEMANDING* they tell us everything about How, What, When, performance, etc, etc, etc?
Would YOU have been happy?
Doubtful.
.
"Damned if they didn't and (maybe) Damned if they did"?
Musk is brutally honest.
You prefer slick lies?
4680 was just another example of hyping unproven technology. Elon is the master of shameless promotion before a technology is actually ready, but to his credit, it does get the investment dollars flowing which many times is the only way tech advances quickly.
I prefer honest truth than sweet lies. As companies get big, its easy to become wasteful. What we are whitnessing is Elon keeping the original spirit of Tesla alive to not become a fat pig of a company like all the others.
The devil finds work for idle hands
These robots are a good idea but at what cost to humanity?
Was the first question asked of a man who built a flattish platform and stuck two "Round things" on the sides.
.
(Called it a "cart")
.
(I will GUARANTEE the Donkey fleet owners were NOT happy)
The good news, the new robots will be ready "next year", for the next 10 years or so. Same hype, different day.
@rogerstarkey5390 I have no issue with robots doing dangerous work etc but there's a lot social issues that will arise when jobs that should be done by humans are done by robots . Humans will adapt but at what cost?
So, does Tesla buy 4680s from suppliers?
LG
Just purchased a MYLR assembled in Fremont, when I asked what model battery it in it, sales told me it is 2680. I tried to correct him, by asking, did your mean 4680?
He confirmed to me, it is 2680. Confused.
Is there a 2680 in Tesla world?
Anyone could have predicted this years ago. Why would you think a completely new battery tech from an in experienced company would work after almost 150 years of battery development. Even if it is possible it would be cost prohibitive. This is because the more complex or difficult a technology the higher the cost. But too be honest I'm surprised they haven't fingered out the dry cathode issues yet.
I heard a year ago they had a break through so was that another lie. It seems like they are trying to prove the entire scientific and battery industry as fools this is a vary arrogant approach to engineering and will ultimately prove them the fools.
Engineering breakthroughs have always been incremental and time tested. But let's be honest here by now they should at least have the napkin maths on if it's going to work. Since they are working on all the current production issues there should be no more surprises at this point.
Its a little like there autonomous driving again making bold claims and even promises without even a working demo. Its getting to be obvious that Tesla is now mostly built on a hype train of never ending promises. Hasn't CATL built a solid state battery?
I am tiered of hearing about Tesla almost tech. Showing is believing and they have shown vary little. I see a demo of the great FSD beta the other day and the auto summon. It turns out it can't navigate a empty parking lot 20 metres in the rain. What chance in a busy shopping parking lot with pedestrians. Good luck I have lost my faith in them. Lucky I'm not an investor but at least as a standard electric car manufacture it might be worth the $89 billion with market share.
I bet the 4680 plant cannot beat CATL. Doesn't matter what time line😂😂. That's the reason for the 100% tarrif on Chinese EV products. Way to go, Uncle Joe 😂
Also the $45/kwh battery credit
big promises yet no battery improvements since 2017. none!
Its funny you say that pressure on the team will reault in meeting the goals of producing 4680 at a cost lower than their current battery suppliers. 4680 will go down in the history as a super hyped up battery with no benefits.
Toyota EVs are already driving around with solid state batteries that will do 1000km and charge in under 5 minutes. How can you compete with that?
Phillip.
@@philliptemple9841 LoL
The 4680 has been hugely frustrating. Lousy productivity, poor power to weight. Hopefully they’ll get it right soon. I do wonder if a 4695 would be more optimal.
I think if they can't figure out how to get the cost below their suppliers, Elon will drop the program all together. He has no emotional attachment to these projects that are not working or no-longer of value.
...unlike the CyberTruck?
Problem is that there's too many things that he's changing his mind on
@@petersmangalisongoma2013 I can't really say your wrong there.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003 I think he would drop the cybertruck if they fail to scale up and have it making money by next year this time. I think he could just wipe all tesla operations out, outside of AI.
I just wonder what project Musk he is cancelling on? I can't find any. The 4680 and Super chargers are just rumours. He even reminded on X that Super chargers investment in 2024 will be 500 M$ for expansion.
Elons doing another surge 😂
He looks so authoritative in your thumb. Propaganda.
"PRODUCTION IS HARD" Elon must be feeling his words on this ambitious project/attempt at vertical integration.GLTA on this one!
I haven’t heard that for a while. Production is easy for the CCP companies to copy once all the Tesla sourcing are in China. 🤷🏻♂️
@@bkterence Yup. Does not matter where German and US Tesla sources parts because Tesla China is nearly 100% locally supplied. They have the tech.
@@danharold3087 yup, Tesla is essentially the R&D tech for CCP to further control the freedom of speech of bright chinese people.
@@danharold3087yup, effectively an R&D center for the owner that controls its people’s freedom of speech.
It’s more "development" is hard.
DBE is new process which nobody else has working.
Rest of 4680 integrated assembly inc folded tabs? I’d like to know.
Most players stuck making pouch cells - prone to failure.
Even CATL prismatic.
Based on a 'new report'....pass
Tesla is continuously improving existing products but seems quite slow in developing completely new.
...and the problem with fickle consumers is, they expect new products occasionally.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003you gotta be musk himself
Why not create 2190 or a size that slightly taller so the cooling is similar.
Doesn't work like that
get china tesla to figure it out and then pull it back here and do it in Germany too...
I can solve Tesla’s cost problems. Build them in China.
The goal can be met and faster, just move the factory to China. Very easy.
Test
How many times can Elon get away with providing false information on their battery days, ai days, etc.?
Its insane how many Tesla fans have used that obviously false information to proclaim it is game over for the rest of the industry.
...don't forget the robot which will be out next year (sarcasm).
Good question. I just don’t get how he can consistently lie to shareholders and still get a pass from regulatory bodies.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003because of the robot and AI, Tesla should be bigger than Apple & Saudi Aramco combined 😂😂😂 you guys must sell everything you have and by the dip of TSLA now 😂😂😂
4680 is a failure. Kill it now and buy batteries from the leaders CATL and BYD.
Plus that chemistry is so out of date now and now what people want.