If you look at the information they openly gave over the last year, this all makes sense. They’re installing multiple new lines of battery production capacity, and are planning to do the same in Europe over the next year. Things are about to reach scale, Tesla did it.
What is becoming clear with each effort of Tesla, they stick to their strategy and work through challenges resulting in positioning themselves in a dominant market position. Sometimes it takes them longer than originally planned - they eventually get to where they want to be. If they can manufacture their batteries internally - they will be almost entirely self sufficient.
If the cell-level energy density of the 4680 just now matches the Panasonic 2170 cell, doesn’t that mean that the pack-level energy density of the 4680 will still be worse than that of the 2170 cell? The 4680 battery cell diameter is larger, so there should be more dead space between the cells than there would be between 2170 cells, right?
It has been about five years since the announcement of 4680 batteries. And there is still no revolution here. The disappointment comes from the new Tesla 3 model with old batteries. For five years Tesla has been telling us failed stories about batteries. In my opinion it is making a big mistake and losing a lot of money trying to be a battery manufacturer. Aliyah to stop the progress of her failed batteries and continue what she is very, very good at. Tesla has no chance to be at the level of CALT and Panasonic.
I thought they said(earnings call Q&A) Cato road facility was no longer a production site, but more of an R&D site, therefore the vast majority of 4680 production is from Texas. Yes the 4680 cells are not currently cheaper than suppliers 2170 cells, but that's because the price is a moving goal, the price of cells are much cheaper now than a year ago
Fortunately, 4680s not much needed for semi for quite a while yet. By the time the Nevada semi factory is ramping, Nevada 4680s will also be ramped or ramping. . .
BYD is an unsuccessful battery manufacturer compared to its competitors. And it produces the batteries with the lowest energy density of all battery manufacturers in the world. There is a difference between what she declares and what she uses. Currently the energy density of is an average of 160 KW per kilo. And in the near future it is expected to use batteries with an energy density of 190 KW per kilogram from the LFP family.
So now that the 4680 is solved do you think Tesla is going to make a trailer for his semi that will include a range extender ( for the semi ) to get it up to 1000 miles ?
No, dedicated charging while loading, unloading and resting will serve most of the market, the vast majority, actually. You've invented a problem that doesn't exist yet.
Would it be difficult for Tesla to switch over chemistry on the 4680 line to something like the LFP that CATL has that has very little degradation and also is good in cold climates? This is the battery I want. Can charge more to higher % rates with lower degradation. Less heat risks.
@@mike_w-tw6jd 80% charges on current chemistry as opposed to 90 to 100% charge on LFP...who says there will be range loss on every day driving. Plus winter loss on the current chemistry will be less range then LFP with new chemistry.
Of the 100,000,000 cells, how many are performing to Tesla's spec, and how many of them were rejected? I know I have a 24 Y that was supposed to have 4680s but obviously it doesn't.
Your question "Of the 100,000,000 cells, how many are performing to Tesla's spec, and how many of them were rejected?" seems bizarre. Do you really think Tesla is claiming, "We made 100 million cells, of which some/many were rejected as being defective"? No, Tesla has made more than 100 million cells, rejected some as being defective, and had 100 million good cells left over.
Wow so a billion batterys in total to recycle in what time frame ,,,,,,,new law needed on battery core recycling charge to keep clean green 💚 program,,,,,you 🤔 think. A billion strong and growing
2:10 Tesla is developing a dry process for coating the electrodes. That replaces a wet slurry method, which requires drying racks that take up factory space. The result will be increased output from a given factory space. The electrolyte remains liquid, so this is not a solid state battery cell. ☮️
@@Tim_Kent On two or three occasions, The Limiting Factor channel arranged for a university lab to take apart a 4680 cell and analyze what was inside. I don't recall the video showing the jelly roll being removed and unwound having any liquid electrolyte leaking out. Likewise, when I see stock footage from Tesla of a 4680 jelly roll being rolled up and put into a can, I don't recall seeing any liquid electrolyte. Have I missed something? Perhaps those videos did contain liquid electrolyte but I didn't recognize it as being a liquid.
Batteries haven't been a limiting factor for years now. The problem is they cannot sell anything like the number of cars they thought they would be able to, with both Berlin and Texas running at nowhere near capacity.
BUT WHY does the 4680 exactly match the 2170 battery?? Does anyone else realise that’s on purpose?- and not accidental for integration into existing models? The 4680 should be superior to the 2170 as designed. The obvious question is when will it be manufactured to its fullest potential? The answer would be in the upcoming Model 2 which is a vehicle with smaller dimensions. A more efficient battery pack in the Model 2 would be lighter. Comments?
It's not a density per battery but per weight. Like density of 10pounds of 2170 x 10pounds of 4680. Otherwise you could never compare the density of all different batteries as they come in various sizes.
What happened to the 4680? I asked AI (Perplexity) this question today: Q: what's your best guess of the cost of a 4680 battery pack vs the existing 2170 pack AI: Based on the available information, here's my best estimate on the cost comparison between 4680 and 2170 battery packs: Current cost situation: The 4680 batteries are likely still more expensive than 2170 batteries on a per kWh basis. Tesla has been struggling to achieve the promised cost reductions with the 4680 cells Cost targets: Tesla aims to make 4680 batteries cheaper than supplier-provided nickel-based cells (like 2170s) by the end of 2024. This suggests they are currently more expensive. Potential savings: Initially, Tesla claimed the 4680 design could reduce battery costs by up to 20% compared to 2170 cells. However, this target has not yet been achieved in production. Manufacturing challenges: Tesla has faced difficulties in scaling up 4680 production and implementing some of the promised technologies like dry electrode coating. These challenges have likely kept costs higher than anticipated. Current applications: The 4680 cells are primarily used in the Cybertruck, while most other Tesla models still use 2170 or LFP cells. This limited use suggests the 4680 cells may not yet have a clear cost advantage. Industry comparisons: Reports indicate that even if Tesla meets its cost reduction targets for 4680 cells, they may still be around twice as expensive as batteries from companies like CATL and BYD. Given these factors, my best guess is that 4680 battery packs are currently 10-30% more expensive than equivalent 2170 packs on a per kWh basis. However, Tesla is working to reduce this gap and aims to make 4680 cells cost-competitive or cheaper by the end of 2024. The actual cost difference likely varies depending on production scale and specific implementations. ========================= To me, the 4680 sounds like another elon "Just you wait a few years" kind of BS
Man, you don’t sound as knowledgeable as you think here… 😂 but good luck w that AI analysis, I’ll stick with cleaner watts and limiting factors research.
Re your last sentence - you really missed the operating method Tesla uses. The principle is that by biting into something that seems too hard nut to crack, they come to unexpected challenges, which slows them down. At the same time, the knowledge gained by researching and resolving such challenges gives them edge because that's how they succeed over their competition. In regards to batteries only - you failed to note that Tesla/Musk didn't intend to produce batteries at the beginning. Elon ordered all battery output from the entire world, yet they were still unable to satisfy their demand. The suppliers were ramping up too slowly. For this reason Tesla started making their own batteries - just to complement those purchased and also to show the way. This led to huge growth and many inventions in the battery industry. You can certainly see that Tesla had sparked the insane rate of growth in this industry. Most of these companies have very good relationships with Musk (as they all supply Tesla, because no single manufacturer is able to satisfy their demand) and recognize his important input in sparking this whole thing, unlike some smartasses on social media who try to discount his positive input altogether. In the meantime, they're ramping up the battery production to levels they never originally planned, and only once they have the dry battery manufacturing mastered, only then they will move to developing further the ingrediences and improving further the 4680 quality. All what I write was published during last several years and I'm not sucking it out of my thumb. Pay attention to what is known from Tesla team and don't believe the negativity - never bet against Elon. The media tries to vilify him because he fights for the US Constitution (1st Amendment). Such fight wouldn't be necessary, if the sinister forces didn't try to subvert it.
What I am most interested in is how government and industry will address the availability of charging stations that approaches the capacity and convenience enjoyed by ICE vehicles. Also of concern is EV access to parking in high density parking garages given concerns with spontaneous battery combustion.
Open new battery lines and production goes up. Who would have thought. Tesla is investing tons of cash in 4680 battery lines and the 4680 is already outdated. Way better battery tech out there.
If you look at the information they openly gave over the last year, this all makes sense. They’re installing multiple new lines of battery production capacity, and are planning to do the same in Europe over the next year. Things are about to reach scale, Tesla did it.
What is becoming clear with each effort of Tesla, they stick to their strategy and work through challenges resulting in positioning themselves in a dominant market position. Sometimes it takes them longer than originally planned - they eventually get to where they want to be. If they can manufacture their batteries internally - they will be almost entirely self sufficient.
Thanks Jon, always always always enlightening ❤🙏🥇
🙋♂️THANKS JON 🤗🧐 FOR THE DETAILS 🔋🔋🔋
If the cell-level energy density of the 4680 just now matches the Panasonic 2170 cell, doesn’t that mean that the pack-level energy density of the 4680 will still be worse than that of the 2170 cell? The 4680 battery cell diameter is larger, so there should be more dead space between the cells than there would be between 2170 cells, right?
Perhaps made up for by the reduction in materials by using the battery pack as a structural element in the chassis?
電池需要散熱，需要電池間隙，而且焊接點大幅減少，有助管理和降成本
It has been about five years since the announcement of 4680 batteries. And there is still no revolution here. The disappointment comes from the new Tesla 3 model with old batteries. For five years Tesla has been telling us failed stories about batteries. In my opinion it is making a big mistake and losing a lot of money trying to be a battery manufacturer. Aliyah to stop the progress of her failed batteries and continue what she is very, very good at. Tesla has no chance to be at the level of CALT and Panasonic.
Exciting stuff! Thanks for the clear & concise overview.
They have been having strong growth MoM for a long time. Compound growth takes a while to show.
Great job as always.
I thought they said(earnings call Q&A) Cato road facility was no longer a production site, but more of an R&D site, therefore the vast majority of 4680 production is from Texas.
Yes the 4680 cells are not currently cheaper than suppliers 2170 cells, but that's because the price is a moving goal, the price of cells are much cheaper now than a year ago
"By end of year," 4680s will be Tesla's cheapest battery source.
Any idea of production cost?
Enough 4680 for CT AND Semi production now 😁
Fortunately, 4680s not much needed for semi for quite a while yet. By the time the Nevada semi factory is ramping, Nevada 4680s will also be ramped or ramping. . .
BYD's new battery is already 292 Wh/kg
BYD is an unsuccessful battery manufacturer compared to its competitors. And it produces the batteries with the lowest energy density of all battery manufacturers in the world. There is a difference between what she declares and what she uses. Currently the energy density of is an average of 160 KW per kilo. And in the near future it is expected to use batteries with an energy density of 190 KW per kilogram from the LFP family.
@@leviyaakubov1875 then why tesla start using BYD battery?
So now that the 4680 is solved do you think Tesla is going to make a trailer for his semi that will include a range extender ( for the semi ) to get it up to 1000 miles ?
No, dedicated charging while loading, unloading and resting will serve most of the market, the vast majority, actually. You've invented a problem that doesn't exist yet.
Any guestimate on How does production compares with other battery cell producer?
How many lines did they use to get to 20GWH
Head about this 4 years ago. Tesla is way of. Is it cheaper? is it better than the other batteries?
Would it be difficult for Tesla to switch over chemistry on the 4680 line to something like the LFP that CATL has that has very little degradation and also is good in cold climates? This is the battery I want. Can charge more to higher % rates with lower degradation. Less heat risks.
how much of a range loss are you willing to accept?
@@mike_w-tw6jd 80% charges on current chemistry as opposed to 90 to 100% charge on LFP...who says there will be range loss on every day driving. Plus winter loss on the current chemistry will be less range then LFP with new chemistry.
lfp 80% of ncma range
4680 now on par with 2170. How is that cause for celebration?
Price has come down for all batteries
Of the 100,000,000 cells, how many are performing to Tesla's spec, and how many of them were rejected? I know I have a 24 Y that was supposed to have 4680s but obviously it doesn't.
Your question "Of the 100,000,000 cells, how many are performing to Tesla's spec, and how many of them were rejected?" seems bizarre. Do you really think Tesla is claiming, "We made 100 million cells, of which some/many were rejected as being defective"? No, Tesla has made more than 100 million cells, rejected some as being defective, and had 100 million good cells left over.
Any sign of dry cathode and dry anode production?
2:09 🤔
@@Tim_Kent yes, the cathode but not the anode. The anode was also supposed to be a dry process.
👍🏻🙏🏻❤️
Wow so a billion batterys in total to recycle in what time frame ,,,,,,,new law needed on battery core recycling charge to keep clean green 💚 program,,,,,you 🤔 think. A billion strong and growing
Exciting.
Hard work and perseverance may pay off again.
Isn't the dry 4680 close to being "solid state" ?
No, although the electrodes are made with the dry process, the cells are still filled with liquid electrolyte.
@@royh6526Ah.... yes....👍
??? You just confused me there. How come nobody talks about liquid electrolyte?
2:10 Tesla is developing a dry process for coating the electrodes. That replaces a wet slurry method, which requires drying racks that take up factory space.
The result will be increased output from a given factory space.
The electrolyte remains liquid, so this is not a solid state battery cell. ☮️
@@Tim_Kent On two or three occasions, The Limiting Factor channel arranged for a university lab to take apart a 4680 cell and analyze what was inside. I don't recall the video showing the jelly roll being removed and unwound having any liquid electrolyte leaking out. Likewise, when I see stock footage from Tesla of a 4680 jelly roll being rolled up and put into a can, I don't recall seeing any liquid electrolyte. Have I missed something? Perhaps those videos did contain liquid electrolyte but I didn't recognize it as being a liquid.
Tesla's fundamental technology has finally come to fruition. We can finally produce an unlimited number of Tesla cars✌️
Batteries haven't been a limiting factor for years now. The problem is they cannot sell anything like the number of cars they thought they would be able to, with both Berlin and Texas running at nowhere near capacity.
@@Alantj22FUD
@@mike_w-tw6jd Of dear, someone has a problem with reality
Does the cathode material come from the onsite building ?
I don't think so yet, but maybe soon.
Ok
BUT WHY does the 4680 exactly match the 2170 battery??
Does anyone else realise that’s on purpose?- and not accidental for integration into existing models? The 4680 should be superior to the 2170 as designed. The obvious question is when will it be manufactured to its fullest potential? The answer would be in the upcoming Model 2 which is a vehicle with smaller dimensions. A more efficient battery pack in the Model 2 would be lighter.
Comments?
The Limiting Factor beat you to it.
So 🤔
I don’t get it how is the 4680 on par with 2170 and 2170 is smaller shouldn’t it have at least two times the energy density
It's not a density per battery but per weight. Like density of 10pounds of 2170 x 10pounds of 4680. Otherwise you could never compare the density of all different batteries as they come in various sizes.
By weight.
Boycott American cars
chyna bot
Wow, you have been disappointed, who would believe that, who would care.
wow this is a big deal!!!
With the EV market slowing globally, where will all these batteries be going?
Cybertruck mostly... then in the future possibly Model Y and of course there is always the Tesla Semi!
How many of those batteries does their robots use though lol
All of them 🤣
The check is in the mail . . .
💤💤💤
What happened to the 4680?
I asked AI (Perplexity) this question today:
Q: what's your best guess of the cost of a 4680 battery pack vs the existing 2170 pack
AI:
Based on the available information, here's my best estimate on the cost comparison between 4680 and 2170 battery packs:
Current cost situation:
The 4680 batteries are likely still more expensive than 2170 batteries on a per kWh basis. Tesla has been struggling to achieve the promised cost reductions with the 4680 cells
Cost targets:
Tesla aims to make 4680 batteries cheaper than supplier-provided nickel-based cells (like 2170s) by the end of 2024. This suggests they are currently more expensive.
Potential savings:
Initially, Tesla claimed the 4680 design could reduce battery costs by up to 20% compared to 2170 cells. However, this target has not yet been achieved in production.
Manufacturing challenges:
Tesla has faced difficulties in scaling up 4680 production and implementing some of the promised technologies like dry electrode coating. These challenges have likely kept costs higher than anticipated.
Current applications:
The 4680 cells are primarily used in the Cybertruck, while most other Tesla models still use 2170 or LFP cells. This limited use suggests the 4680 cells may not yet have a clear cost advantage.
Industry comparisons:
Reports indicate that even if Tesla meets its cost reduction targets for 4680 cells, they may still be around twice as expensive as batteries from companies like CATL and BYD.
Given these factors, my best guess is that 4680 battery packs are currently 10-30% more expensive than equivalent 2170 packs on a per kWh basis. However, Tesla is working to reduce this gap and aims to make 4680 cells cost-competitive or cheaper by the end of 2024. The actual cost difference likely varies depending on production scale and specific implementations.
=========================
To me, the 4680 sounds like another elon "Just you wait a few years" kind of BS
Man, you don’t sound as knowledgeable as you think here… 😂 but good luck w that AI analysis, I’ll stick with cleaner watts and limiting factors research.
@@daveinpublic I just ask AI questions and report what it says - that drives Fan Boys nuts..
Re your last sentence - you really missed the operating method Tesla uses. The principle is that by biting into something that seems too hard nut to crack, they come to unexpected challenges, which slows them down. At the same time, the knowledge gained by researching and resolving such challenges gives them edge because that's how they succeed over their competition.
In regards to batteries only - you failed to note that Tesla/Musk didn't intend to produce batteries at the beginning. Elon ordered all battery output from the entire world, yet they were still unable to satisfy their demand. The suppliers were ramping up too slowly. For this reason Tesla started making their own batteries - just to complement those purchased and also to show the way. This led to huge growth and many inventions in the battery industry. You can certainly see that Tesla had sparked the insane rate of growth in this industry. Most of these companies have very good relationships with Musk (as they all supply Tesla, because no single manufacturer is able to satisfy their demand) and recognize his important input in sparking this whole thing, unlike some smartasses on social media who try to discount his positive input altogether. In the meantime, they're ramping up the battery production to levels they never originally planned, and only once they have the dry battery manufacturing mastered, only then they will move to developing further the ingrediences and improving further the 4680 quality.
All what I write was published during last several years and I'm not sucking it out of my thumb. Pay attention to what is known from Tesla team and don't believe the negativity - never bet against Elon. The media tries to vilify him because he fights for the US Constitution (1st Amendment). Such fight wouldn't be necessary, if the sinister forces didn't try to subvert it.
@@Alarix246 It's not me saying it - it's AI - I post what AI assembles.
and it believes that the 4680 will be 2X more expensive than the competition.
@@noleftturnstesla drives u EV haters nuts
Tesla 4680’s cost so much less than the competition. Tesla has signed contracts to buy millions of competitors 4680 cells. Hmmmmmmmm. That’s odd.
Who's the competition?
Well the price difference btw isn't that great if it makes the batteries only 30% cheaper...
What's odd about supply and demand?
ICE vehicles "recharge" in 3 minutes and then drive for 4-1/2 hours.
no bathroom breaks for your passengers, ugh
@@mike_w-tw6jd EVs : the choice of the incontinent
What I am most interested in is how government and industry will address the availability of charging stations that approaches the capacity and convenience enjoyed by ICE vehicles. Also of concern is EV access to parking in high density parking garages given concerns with spontaneous battery combustion.
do you have electricity at home? if not, then EVs arent for you
Open new battery lines and production goes up. Who would have thought. Tesla is investing tons of cash in 4680 battery lines and the 4680 is already outdated. Way better battery tech out there.
Do you understand what 4680s are about? I wager you don't. DBE is ahead of the game. Please do your own research.
The 4680 cell with it's larger size now has the same capacity as a smaller 2170 cell. Am I reading that right?
You are not reading right
Same energy density, more useful energy per volume and weight
Now they can mass produce shit batteries...lol