Hi beautiful community, just to emphasise: 'Freezing' the war is tempting for the West, but it is not a sustainably available option. Negotiations are for Putin either undesirable, or a gambit to gain an advantage in the war. Vlad's main channel ua-cam.com/users/VladVexlervideos Support Vlad's work on Patreon! www.patreon.com/vladvexler Support Vlad via PayPal www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB
And when dealing with crossing rivers it is good to make realistic assessments as to what rivers one can and can't cross. And to do that first one might try to ascertain what is by in large factual. So one fact is that (as compared to the range of modern long range missiles and aircraft) the Black Sea is pretty dang small! So is the Baltic sea, and even more so with Finland in NATO and Sweden likely to join soon, as soon! Thus with air power and sea drones attacking the Russian Sea fleet is getting ever is a bit like the proverbial shooting ducks in a duck pond. An when Ukraine gets it F-16 that duck pond gets even smaller! Thus the Military importance of Crimea is not what it used to be in that it is now more of an Achilles heel than a bastion for basing sea power. So aside from the humanitarian aspects, possessing Crimea may not be as much of a liability as an asset. Thus while liberating Crimea is a great goal it might be a questionable strategy (and BTW one might Goggle Why Ukraine can't provide a clear strategy to Mike Johnson and Anders Puck Nielsen who gives a great definition of what is a strategy. So if liberating Crimea is a river a bit too wide for Ukraine to cross then maybe it's place becomes more of a bargaining chip to get something else that would give Ukraine even greater security, like NATO membership. For Ukraine at one time had Crimea and lost it. So if they get it again there is not guarantee that it then can lose it again as well, that being it might be a liability to whomever has it. As such maybe it would be better to make it its own independent country and have UN troops in it to maintain order, noting that Russia is part of the UN as well.
So then what might the best strategy for the west be? Perhaps it is to make continuing the war more trouble to Putin than what it is worth and give him an out... and *as the Bible commands) leave vengeance to God. Thus the west needs to keep support Ukraine so Russia can never win, maintain sanctions, and the lobby for a independent Crimea (which Ukraine my not like but it is better than a Russian controlled one). It could be occupied (initially) with UN troops (including Russian troops, so they need not have to "pull out" but wester troops as well. Sevastopol can be declared an open port for all to use (as it is no longer a viable naval base). If Russia agrees to that the west will lift sanctions, help the drill for oil in the artic and forgive all rather than try to try to seek out reparations, which BTW how well do that work after WW1 and how much better did letting Germany off work after WW2 where they committed far more grievous crimes). So to get all to agree to a negotiated solution it is best to have a win win for all, and that includes Russia as well as Crimea. So Ukraine gets peace and security (joining NATO). Crimea gets independence. Russia gets forgiveness and assistance (plus loads of eggs!) and Putin should be able to spin that as a win for him as well, showing how Russian troops are still are in Crimea and thus declaring the "special military operation" was a whopping success in that it "forced" the west to end its sanctions on Russia and conceded Crimea to be under Russian "control, along with the rest of the UN (though he might forget to mention the later to the Russian people)!
The other day we had 9 air raids in one day. My city is bombed almost every day. I'm so used to the sound of explosions it's ridiculous. My cat has started sleeping in the bathroom and corridor. My neighbours are at war fighting the enemy 30+ times larger with almost bare hands nowadays. Their child is raised by a grandma right now. I asked her how he reacts to the explosions - she says she tells him it's a car backfiring... He's 3 and is still being shielded from the war although he's right in the middle 💔 I want to ask whoever reads this - please write to your politicians. Please ask them to support us. Please understand that if Ukraine falls it will be your sons and fathers who are drafted.
You might think you don't have any influence on the situation, that an email to your government is a drop in an ocean... But isn't the ocean made of drops? Also, thank you Vlad and everyone for your continuous support ❤️
The entire Western world as well as Japan are giving you everything we can. But we very much underestimated Russia. We tried to defeat Russia using sanctions as well as isolating Russia from the entire world. And of course we tried pushing Russia out of Ukraine using your military and our equipment and money. But we failed. Eventually Zelenskyy will negotiate an end to the war. There is no threat to us. Please understand that although there is an absolutely huge campaign to have westerners all around the world believe that Russia is trying to take over the world, it's not going to happen. Most people don't believe this is the case or don't care. Russia is in fact doing the opposite. They are leaving the West. They don't want anything to do with us anymore. Good luck.
@@vera. I have been praying for the fighting to end...I do plan on voting for Biden since he most likely will do a better job of sending aid. I can't help but wonder if there is not a growing number of Ukrainians that would like to see a peace treaty signed to end the war. I have tried to put myself in your place and I would probably be willing to give up a couple states in order to have peace. Russia really dug in on this war..it seems personal for them...like when a husband will not let his wife leave...even though he no longer loves her...Russia does not want Ukraine joining the western nations...but the Donbass seems likely could be traded for the rest of Ukraine to be free....much love from California 🙏💛💙💛💙 We have not forgotten you guys.
@@vera. One little side story that may bring you some joy...here in a local newspaper out of Berkeley California...a Ukrainian immigrant started a bakery and is hiring all Ukrainian refugees, many don't know much English and need work...they make Ukrainian pastries...in a few weeks I am going up to Berkeley and I am going to check it out. Here in California a lot of people have much love and support for Ukraine. ☺
@@SlpBeauty333 Good point about Biden...Biden has a kind heart. NYC and New England have our oldest architecture , thankfully San Francisco too has beautiful Victorian style buildings...but otherwise most all of California is strip malls and urban sprawl. 🤣 Ah ,The Gilded Age..Carnegie and Rockefeller...Capitalism on steroids...winner takes all. 😉 Glad we got some controls on that...but sadly we still need some more. 😃
You're totally right. The idea that war should be frozen is just... naïve at best, malevolent at worst. We all want peace, I understand that, but freezing it won't bring peace; it will bring a worse war in the medium-term future 😭 Putin won't stop unless he can't go on anymore, and a cease-fire obviously won't achieve that
I am only supporting what Ukraine wants. And I know that while the evil empire has any troops occupying parts of the country there can never be peace or economic security. The Baltics know what they are talking about when it comes to ruzzia.
Horrendously depressing message from you today. Latvia was abandoned and handed to the Russians after WWII. We Latvians know what conceding to the Russians entails. Nobody deserves that, and no equilibristic argumentation will convince me.
@@renstein8210 Pathetic attempt to sanitise the moscovite tsar. russia WAS the Soviet Union. You want proof? putin claims Ukraine belongs to russia. But according to you, Vatnik, Latvia once belonged to the Soviet Union, not russia. And you are right! Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia , Moldova, Ukraine, russia, Kazakhstan, and many more, once belonged to the Soviet Union. But the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. So how can Ukraine belong to russia? Could it be that russia, or more specifically, moscow, WAS the Soviet Union? Slava Ukraini 🇬🇧🇺🇦💛💙
I do not know what I can promise as an American, but I know there is a lot of continuing support for Ukraine, even if our toxic politics obstructs from us expressing it!
Politicians don't talk about paddling halfway across the river, or even swimming across. They claim if they are elected, the river won't exist. Instead of admitting that some children admittedly will be left behind under any education policy, they say "No child left behind." That translates to, "There is no behind."
Let your representative (and whoever's running against them) know that your vote depends on their support for Ukraine. Donate whatever you can easily spare. Slap down Russian disinfo whenever you see it.
Now, if my neighbour knocked down the partition wall between my house and theirs while I was asleep and took over a quarter of my house, and I then started to fight back using the bricks from the knocked down wall for the next 3 years, and then my other neighbours got together at the UN and said'' oh is there any chance you could come to some agreement with your neighbour as we can't handle the constant brick throwing as it's lowering our house prices and lowering to tone of the overall area. ''I would actually tell them where to go in not so many words''. This neighbour has stolen a quarter of my house and for all I know once I capitulate over the quarter of my house what's stopping them taking the remainder of my house in a few years' time while I'm asleep. So, I gather those trying to pressure Ukraine into negotiating with Putin have financial & hidden motives. In my way of thinking this makes them complicit in the present and future war crimes and ethnic cleansing in my book.
@@VladVexlerChat I hope it remains so even with a Trump administration in the US. Perhaps the likely collapse of the Tory party helps protect the UK regardless, or at least, that's what I tell myself.
Getting all territories back is the biggest strongarmed position of Ukraine, but it doesn't necessarily resolve the war. Ukraine wants a future of peace. Peace is achieved by military deterrence, and that can only become possible with the ability for Ukraine to arm itself with help from the West (so anti-Russian/Putin concept of demilitarisation), the second is Ukraine's ability to form its own military and economic treaties, (ie Joining EU, a bespoke defensive treaty or NATO). The irony here is for Ukraine there is a big danger in negotiating on these points with Russia unless they have already got 100% confirmation from the West backing these positions. So until the West agrees they can back up Ukraine longer term their best strategy is to hold on and go for full return of Ukraine territories. And countries that truly understand this will continue to support them.
What kind of question is this? Russia is brutally repressive to people who don’t toe their totalitarian party line. It’s been said that the Kremlin is the tallest building in the world because you can see Siberian prison camps from the basement.
There is a toxic mindset in the West through the past 30 years that sees to "freeze" or "to pause" as a means and a solution itself. Beyond politics, I've experienced this attitude in business myself and with America's government constantly running out of funds and they only delay government shutdowns with short pauses funded by temporary appropriations. When something doesn't work out, how we in the West want, we now strive for a "pause" rather than a constructive solution.
When you say "American government" in your example, you are actually talking about one party that risks (and sometimes accomplishes) gov't shutdowns: Republicans.
democracies love short term solutions. it's like failing the marshmallow test - instead of waiting and getting 2 marshmallows, you just eat the marshmallow immediately.
@@diane9247 But is not the Democrats proposed solution to a shut down only raising a debt-cap for a few weeks/months, then the government runs out of money again? Why doesn't the USA have a more sustainable solution such as cutting spending, pay back debt, and avoid just another debt-cap raise and kicking the can down the road until another shutdown looms?
Getting halfway across the river was so hard everyday. It seems that there is no end to how hard everyday will be. Or how how many days remain. But. Only by pushing hard everyday do we get to the other side.
Vlad, it is late and perhaps I have not understood properly. Situations like war are extremely unpredictable, so how can you even guess what a realistic outcome may be? Since we do not seem to be able/doing everything to help decisively defeat russia this year, we still have to do everything to let Ukraine atritt it as much as possible, because there is nothing reasonable that can be negotiated in the near or mid-term future. And I think it will be only then (when russia admits some reasonable exit - which, given the vast destruction that it has caused, cannot be very comfortable for it) that a decision could be made about possible outcomes and negotiation goals. And you cannot rule out that russia could start to have serious internal problems at some time (of course, you cannot rule it out anywhere). Sometimes it is not up to us to really decide whether to try to swim, there are situations where it may be the only reasonable chance.
Someone i know -- a Ukrainian -- is either alive or dead in a gulag or in a grave... that is a true story unfortunately. I hold that story with with sorrow and a sense of duty. There are thousands of such "disappeared" Ukrainians, most Ukrainians have been touched by the war, and all are affected. There are hundreds of thousands of stolen children. I heard some of what happened in one occupied city directly from a friend, with no media filter; all this has greatly affected my experience of this war, which i have lived in physical safetu. The war is not over, we cannot predict the outcome. I am reminded that the Allies were losing to the Axis powers for the first 3-4 years of WW2. Military and logistic changes re-shaped the entire framework of that war in a slow, complex way however. The ground of this war -- military, economic, political -- is actually fluid, even 2 years is not sufficient to draw out a trend line. We do not know the outcome. Not knowing leaves us with our moral sense and our intuition both intact, and useful in the concrete present. Vlad, you have stated a "weakening of support" for Ukraine as a fact, or the best interpretation of trends you observe. I think that is premature, and oddly i see the facts as pointing to interpretations other than exhaustion. The global context and likelihood of a multi-year war make the context wider than it might seem at the moment, and Kremlin influence over media make it hard to hink clearly. Let us not join the chorus of people talking about termination, nor certainly those talking about cesefire or surrender in the middle of an annihilation of civilains and their culture.
The narrowest distance between mainland Russia and mainland Alaska is approximately 55 miles. Alaska is 1 1/2 times the size of Ukraine. Imagine if Russia invaded Alaska across the Bering Strait. At the closest point one could walk 2.5 miles from the nearest Russian Island to the nearest US Island in the Bering Strait when that area freezes solid. The U.S. would not hesitate to knock out all the logistics sites and paths that Russia used to invade Alaska and that would be the end of the invasion. The same could be true of Ukraine using long range missiles and fighter jets in sufficient quantity. General Hodges and General Bleedlove who have both led troops in Nato in Europe, know how to make Ukraine victorious - Ukraine needs the correct tools. The US has only given 0,3% of its military budget to help Ukraine. NATO countries that border Russia have given much more by percent of their military budget. These countries will not stop helping Ukraine because if Ukraine falls NATO eventually becomes involved in saving these countries on Russia's border.. We have no idea what tomorrow will bring. Did anyone predict hot water filling the streets in up to 20 established areas mostly in and around Moscow, from broken water pipes and boilers, freezing out the residents with no heat and no water? Not that I am aware of. Did anyone predict Prigozhin's mutiny? Not that I am aware of. Russia's economy is not any more stable than the US economy and look what happened overnight in the US in 2008 to its economy. I believe Timothy Snyder, General Hodges and General Breedlove, all born in the USA who know Ukrainian history and know that in every great war and event in history, Ukraine played an outsized role. Ukraine will eventually regain Crimea and Putin will fall. Ukraine has never let up in taking out Russia logistics. One day Kherson will be liberated. Because Russia cannot win. Pieces are falling off Russia's personae as we speak. No one is infallible. Not Putin, not Trump. They have poked and poked and poked the hornets nest and the hornets are out for the kill.... But... I still love you Vlad, even if you are a realist with a dash of salt.
If Russia wanted to take over the USA, what they should do, is have tens of millions of Russian citizens march _unarmed_ across the Bering Strait and claim "asylum" (like what's happening on the US southern border), and then become the biggest Democrat-voting bloc in the US politics.
Why are everuvo forgetting this "The Budapest Memorandum[1] a multilateral political declaration made in 1994. It was signed on 5 December in Budapest at the conference of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) held here. The convention contains non-binding security policy promises to the signatories in connection with the accession of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan to the NPT on the limitation of nuclear weapons. The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. Later, China and France also issued statements of support. The Treaty's security guarantees apply in the event of threats to or use of force affecting the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. As a result, Ukraine dismantled the world's third largest nuclear arsenal between 1994 and 1996. At the outbreak of the crisis in Crimea in 2014, the United States stated that the Russian intervention constituted a violation of the Budapest Memorandum on guarantees to Ukraine and a clear violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u It put Russia on notice that the other signatories might make things uncomfortable for Russia if the assurances were set aside. And that is what has happened. Perhaps we can assume Putin foresaw all of this and he sees this as the path to his success. But he cannot claim the US/UK response has no basis.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u It's not a "convention". It';s a Treaty. And it's binding. Poisonous propaganda lies. Ukraine has no choice but to humour the US and the UK while it is dependent on them for arms (which they refused to sell to it before the invasions). Wait until after the invasion is ended and it goes to the ICJ. All 3 violated the treaty.
Lovely to hear from you as always Vlad. I'm curious if the news of the UK's recent pledge of support alters your perspective on support for Ukraine degrading within western circles in general? Perhaps I'm being overly optimistic but I'm hopeful their new commitment might spur other western states to renew and sustain their support.
It doesn’t, as the support is limited and the commitment is moderate. However my view is that while we can make progress, we can’t entirely break out of this as we don’t have sufficient democratic capacity at home in our democracies.
@@VladVexlerChat A reasonable position to take and thank you for replying. I trust you're in good health and I'm very much looking forward to your next videos. Be well and lots of love from me to you :)
Ukrainian victory an impossible goal? Depends how you define victory. But Churchill was insistent on an 'impossible goal' in 1939 that Germany must be defeated - and it WAS possible because the United States decided that it was possible. Russian being completely pushed out of Ukraine is possible with the right sort of military aid from the United States. Russia would not roll over and say, "OK, you have won," at that point though and so it would not be a victory in that sense, but then it must be accepted that Russia is in a permanent state of war with the West and without an existential collapse of Russia, that war will never be won. The best that can happen is that Russia is contained and the West must rearm to do that.
Thank you again Vlad for helping us make sense of what's happening (or not). I take it the the West here is used as an abstraction, and as a generalisation. But not all of Ukraine's partners determination is as brittle, as say, France. Some clearly feel threatened enough, like Poland and the Baltics and might not give up despite some democratic dysfunctions. Some still seem functional democracies to me, like the scandinavians and maybe Netherlands. Some more might fit in either or both categories. None are major players but we're still talking about a considerable amount of countries.
The Netherlands run by stable free, open, pluriform, international human rights democratic governance is highly dubious today. Since, the latest national elections were a clear victory for the PVV, the party of Putin loving leader Geert Wilders. His first main goal was to rewrite the Dutch Constitution. He wants to make second class citizens of immigrants, and probably their descendants to a certain generation.
you did not get that here Vlad advocates for Ukraine to negociate giving up territory , now that the west does not help. And the he is annoyed by NAFO , the only entity that fight russian propaganda and expose their strategies. So disapointed in vlad, after more than an year. Never understood though that he never organized fuindraise for Ukraine as the other pro Ukraine youtube channels did. Maybe he is not advocating for dismantle of Russian empire after all. geopolitics and stuff..
If plan "A" is not working I'd suggest Zelensky make a speech to the Ukrainian people stating that hope arises from many historical examples. If I were him I'd mention these three: 1) The Taliban in Afghanistan took ~ 25 years to become victorious. 2) The north Vietnamese took roughly 30 years to defeat the French and Americans in their country. 3) The Iberians needed over 770 years to kick the Moors out of their peninsula. The message to the Ukrainians should be: never give up no matter what.
As Churchill said: If you’re going through hell: Keep going. We must think about that when we find ourselves halfway your river. Usually we would use a boat or a bridge. Swimming to the other side is already not a freely made choice. When we find ourselves in solidarity with Ukraine (however select that group may be or become) it is fitting to remember that Ukraine has no choice other than to survive. The first half of your talk (I don’t like the term conversation Vlad; it’s too one-sided for that) made me think of Von Clausewitz. As in war, the value of the initiative is equally great in diplomacy. We make a grave mistake if we let russia hijack our domestic view on things, and then take it from there to the conference table. Zelensky is absolutely right to fear that more than anything else, because it indeed means that the russians will be back in under a decade to finish the job.
One one side, the West has just some "moral obligations" to Ukraine and the Western politicians are only accountable (ideally) to the citizens of their respective countries. One the other side, only the Ukrainians can decide when to stop fighting Russia. The overall decline in support is maybe a sign that politicians in the West feel that "support to Ukraine for as long as it takes" starts to affect their comfort zone and the comfort zone of their citizens. Meanwhile, there is no reasonably achievable way to an Ukrainian victory and any "freezing of the war/independence +" in which Russia keeps any occupied territory is a Russian victory. Sounds bad for Ukraine and for everybody else in the West.
There's more than one way to skin a cat or in this case a bear. It may appear to those looking at a map every day and not seeing any change in the control of territory but that's not the only way to win a war. Im talking about Russia's economy and its will to fight. Its economy has only about 6 or 8 months to live. If Ukraine can hold out that long it will win, Russia will be forced to withdraw. The signs of industrial degradation have taken a sudden turn. A large number of Russians have been living without heat and electricity. They are very angry. Food shortages are increasing. Recently eggs and now chicken..its coming aoart. China is further down the same path.
For me the importance of the goal has an impact of whether you should try to make the swim. If it doesn't matter so much if the goal is achieved then canoeing down is OK but if the impact of the goal is sufficiently high then you have to swim across, balancing or minimising the risks of failure as much as you can. For me, the impact of Ukraine failing to cross the river has that level of importance, not just for Ukraine but for the overall international rule of law we have tried to agree for the past 70 years as a way of reducing wars in general and improving the overall lot of people.
Well, while Vlad has been pontificating about abstract rivers, Ukrainian marines have actually been crossing the very real Dnieper River and kicking Russian butt. I don't think Zelenskyy is paying attention to doom mongers.
Vlad, what I hear or how I interpret what you're saying is this, President Biden would never say that he/the USA would support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression “until Ukraine was victorious.” President Biden said he would support Ukraine “until the end”. What frightens me the most is this, is Ukraine's deadlock in the war today what Biden interprets as “the end”?
Your channel is by far the most useful I am following. For me, it raises questions of what I can do about the situation. Still don't know, though. Moods in my country are not only towards ending the conflict - the majority support Russia. There is a strong tendency of de - politicization. Myself, I did not care about politics until the war started. Anyway - love your content! It helps me with very difficult questions
Ukraine can very well get back Crimea, if the West provide long range capabilities (atacms or similar) in high enough quantities. This would have a big impact on morale on both sides, and allow putting pressure on Mariupol. Also this would provide momentum to the West in the sense of confirmation that the military aid enables Ukraine to gain back its territory. At that point it might become obvious even to people in the Kremlin that there is no path to victory for them anymore and the war is lost strategically for Russia. I am curious what would happen - start of negotiations , coup or something else?
Joe Biden has plans that obviously don't include victory. He also has plans to run for office this November. Joe was skipped over for Hillary Clinton, considered more electable. He dropped out one time due to plagiarism but his son has done very well in business overseas.
Could you please, please think critically about the propaganda that you consume? We know this strategy won’t work. We have known for decades this strategy won’t work. Russia, despite having many many long range missiles still hasn’t conquered that far into Ukraine. Why on earth would Ukraine, getting a few more missiles allow it to conquer Crimea?
Why would sending some HIMARS to Ukraine allow it to retake Kherson? Russia has more MLRS, and it hasn’t captured Kyiv - why would anyone think that sending some HIMARS would enable retaking Kherson? That’s what you sound like.
I do not agree with "The West wants to freeze the war". 1. I think, the West is annoyed, but not interested in the war. Therefor the West has no strategy beyond sanctions. "wanting to freeze" would be a strategy. 2. Western politicians are focused on their national goals: Migration, growth, climatic change, cheap energy, ... , and winning elections. 3. Combining the first two points my assessment is: What looks like "The West wants to freeze the war" is very much like Russia's unpolitical blob. "We aren't interested what Putin does, as long as it doesn't affect us at home." The frozen war past 2014 didn't affect us at home. 4. Let's start politicizing the West. This channel contributes already.
This it the best comment, thank you so much! There's no strategy, "freeze" or even "exchange Ukraine for another bs promise from russia" would be a strategy. Westerners just don't care and want the war to go away. Mobilizing them politically could be a solution.
@@VladVexlerChat Exactly. But no one raises in a western political party by being unstrategic. My conclusion: It is not a goal. No goal - nothing wanted. It's being neither hot nor cold.
It seems to me the desire to 'freeze' the war is a yearning to return to pre-war conditions. That appears, to me at least, as an 'unobtainable' opposite bank of the river. We now have Iran emboldened at the prospect of UN security council veto at its call, same for DPRK, which has gained a partner to 'play off' against China. True, those issues take minds off Ukraine situation. However, they also add more variables to confuse calculations. The world has changed. Russia's defeat will spoil our adversaries calculations, seems a better choice in long run.
I think that’s a very good way of putting it: there is no way to turn the clock back to February 2023. The situation in Feb 2022 was itself a problem, not a solution.
This talk about some political changes being destructive if not completed properly reminds me of the political disintegration of the Soviet Union, when there was a great desire for reform, but no clear strategy on how to make things better.
Thank you Vlad we appreciate your thoughts and insights and hope you’re coping with your health issues. When we stand up as a humanity/free world with our promise to stand with Ukraine then we must honour this by Standing United against the dark energies of old for how long it takes for that is where your strength lays Standing United together for a common cause PEACE and DEMOCRACY that empowers all of Humanity. We see the dark energies of old are indeed showing its ugliness with wars, aggression and corrupted regimes as dark energy dies hard at this time. We have at this time the opportunities to hold our light over this darkness where they no longer have the power to use aggressions, atrocities and commit the human rights abuses we have seen for centuries. The world today must move forward away from the past ways that only supported some and enabled the darker energies to misuse their power for their own manipulation and control and these ways only support those corrupted regimes. If we want Real changes then We as a Humanity must stand United to Make and Achieve Positive Changes that Represents and Empowers our Freedom, Rights and Democracies around the world that recognises the rights and basic needs of every nation without wars, aggression and violence. We all have the power within to Create the changes and a brighter future and peaceful world for all children.🙏🏻🙏🏻💚💚🙏🏻🙏🏻
I am starting to wonder what is considered "West" in regards of freezing the war... because some NATO states (Poland, Czechia, baltic countries) are pretty open in supporting Ukraine way beyond what other NATO members do...
Americans will always choose, why not try. If it doesn’t work, then we will do something else. This business of trianglulating that Jake Sullivan/national security council is pursuing is completely un-American and unintelligible to those of us paying attention. We don’t play chess. we make a plan and try it. And then, improvise as needed. that’s our business doctrine, our military doctrine, our political doctrine, our everything doctrine. Give it a try and figure it out along the way.
Yep, that's us in a nutshell...that's why we make great entrepreneurs, explorers and developers....I think it's in our DNA to be risk takers 😅 and it either goes awesome or we fail miserably...but we love taking chances and going all in. However, with our foreign policy it has lately been abysmal...the withdrawal from Afghanistan was pathetic and we are doing a real half a** job with Ukraine. But in general we do go all in.
I think it is fair to say that President Biden and Jake Sullivan's crowd are not elaborating a theory of military victory. I think Vlad was right about that. But it does not mean they never will. There was a great piece this week in Kyiv Post about a securtity consultant from Rand who has been around the White House for 2 years, and in public writing articles about how Ukraine has no way to win. If he could sell that to Biden, it might start to become true... I wish we had better politicians. But as Americans, we have a great burden to push our political leaders to support Ukraine in victory. It is a very tall order, hard, but possible.
I am feeling more and more frustrated by the United State's response here. On the one hand maybe it is just being inept...I sure hope there is no maliciousness in our lack of fortitude. We are sending weapons which just perpetuates the fighting it seems...either we need to send enough weapons to win or insist on peace talks. It feels wrong to just be causing so many deaths on both the Ukrainian side and Russian side as we sit idly by watching. If we are giving the most weapons, we must take responsibility to push for a quick and peaceful end...not just allowing the soldiers and civilians to die in vain.
@@VladVexlerChat Biden overall has done very well to stick to his guns and keep pushing for Ukrainian aid..even being willing to negotiate on increased border security. He did better than many other politicians would have done...to keep Ukraine aid a top priority, hopefully he will get another 4 years.
Ohhh this makes me feel - cartoonishly ;) - a little like a Monty Python "Gumby". MY!!! BRANE..!! HURTSS!!! This is a good sign, it means I'm trying to think about things using new ideas and suchlike.
Dear Vlad, your projection of a 'civic' conversation in Ukraine about alternatives to getting all their territory back ignores the polls that are overwhelmingly in favour of getting back their territory. Why are you imposing a speculative question on the Ukrainian public? Why do you not say that it is your question?
Important not to ignore polls. This will be a year of politicisation in Ukraine. The legitimacy of the govt to an extent rests on a short successful war - this legitimacy will need to be renegotiated. Political life in Ukraine is clearly, visibly, re appearing. I am introducing this to the community as an important factor to think about in 2024. No Ukrainian wants to give up territory, but increasingly, Ukrainians will go on to ask of the government: what is your plan? What alternatives do you have if plan A is not working? Are you governing us responsibly during this extraordinary difficult time? What lessons are there from 2023 and are you able to act on those? And so on. This is happening already and it is not speculative.
Different countries can be put under pressure in different ways, and as for Denmark, a major stress, that might make some ask for negotiations with Russia, would be if our shipping industry were in jeopardy due to the events in the Red Sea. If even more crises are put on top of other crises. A giant such as "Maersk" has tremendous power. When economy, free trade, growth are under pressure, some priorities may have to be made. A frigate will be sent to the area end of January and that will mean another crisis to handle militarily. Our forces are already in a pretty poor shape.
I am committed to Ukraine trying to win, but certainly fully arming Ukraine in case the outcome is a line like South Koreans have facing the North would be beneficial for Ukraine's long term stability. Although, I'm not convinced that they cannot win completely, because of what former NATO commander Ben Hodges has to say, as well as Rasmussen. Military strategists tend to offer a unique window on the conflict. Something's going to budge, either the Republicans will agree on a workable compromise, or the frozen assets will begin thawing and flowing into Ukraine.
Basically Putin thought Ukraine would be a cakewalk, and it wasn't. He needs time to rebuild a much larger army, and if the west gives him that, we will all of us pay for that mistake. This is the time to double down on support.
The west cannot drown in supporting a Ukranian victory. Wars are primarily exercises in economy and production, and there's no question that the collective west can outproduce Russia while still maintaining a good standard of living. People forget we've been through worst, much worst, and managed to persevere and the world is the better for it. On the long run, the risk of not seeing this thing through is greater than any inconvenience we might experience otherwise. We're already seeing echoes of the conflict reverberate all over the world. From Yemen to Palestine to, now Venezuela‽ people are starting to challenge the world order and if we don't stand our ground here, in our back yard, what chance do we have in the more remote parts of the world? What chance do we have to rally others around us if we're not willing to defend them? Ukraine's victory is in our interest. It's in the interest of democracy and the rules-based world order we've so carefully constructed after the end of the second world war.
What would be the counterpart of the "Kremlin not think Ukraina is not real"? Would it be like that of the rights denied for african-Americans or the jews in Europe?
Why do you think this is? Why do Western leaders, surrounded by experts and seeing what everyone else is seeing seem to either not realize Putin's aims or even thinking of appeasement?
Unlike the USSR, nowadays there are many western corporations still in Russia. Most did not leave. Especially the food and drink sector e.g,. Unilever,. also Caterpillar which makes excavators and bulldozers. These are powerful lobbies.
I hate to say it, but the recent experts our national news interviewed for the war are implying encouraging such a freezing as well, akin lines like 'In reality you can't get all you want' for example. It might be to consider political hurdles for Ukraine domestically, but I do think the former's more likely. They do seem rather quiet regarding our responsibilities for that situation though. As well as that negotiating with Putin is not a reasonable prospect for reasons this channel has been explaining.
Some Western politicians and commentators might talk about freezing the war, but I don't see how it is remotely possible without Ukraine making the kind of concessions to Russia that Putin demanded before the start of the war. This is ultimately what Putin means by freezing the war, whatever those politicians in the West might think. Even if you take the slightly delusionary view that you could literally "freeze" the battle lines, Ukraine would require some kind of security guarantee from the West, if not NATO membership then something very similar or Russia would "unfreeze" the conflict very quickly. Neither of these outcomes would be acceptable to the other side at this present moment in time. This is an existential war, obviously for Ukraine, but also for Putin in terms his notions of Russia's origins as a country. Putin's bold statemement that Ukraine is nothing without Russia is perhaps presisely the wrong way round. In my opinion now is the time for The West to drastically step up support for Ukraine so that even if Ukraine does not regain all of its occupied territories it can at least negotiate from a position of strength.
Vlad, beaut as always. Question: Wouldn't all of these issues become academic if Russia was crushed economically? Shouldn't the West concentrate more on this approach?
Ideally we could do it with sanctions and economical means...but Russia has much experience from the days of the USSR...they will just make their own products...and other nations are not on our side to really execute sanctions. China and India won't cut off Russia. China is more or less our "frenemy" and I think India is a bit against us due to the British colonization...so as long as Russia has trading partners and they are big enough to make their own stuff...economical factors will not achieve the desired results. Just my humble opinion. Couldn't help but add my two cents.😀
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Fair point on the Opium Wars...but Taiwan wants to remain independent of China. Hong Kong also wanted to be separate from mainland China..and sadly they were absorbed into China with little notice abroad. Yeah the colonization period has many lasting consequences...I suppose since the USA was founded by Brits...even though we were a colony and separated from England, we still have much the same bloodline and ethnicity so we are always on the same page historically. We are BFF's with England . 🤣
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 All countries have a fairly strict attitude towards separatism in any form. Isn’t what you say also applicable to Ukraine, for example? One way or another, this policy is hypocritical.
I think that many ordinary and many powerful individuals are committed to Ukraine's victory but there are also may who are not. So it is a to and fro of public opinion and political influence.
When you (Vlad) offer an interpretation, presumably there is at least some evidence to support that interpretation. Maybe the small minority of the community were after some evidence.
Ok i get the general reasoning not to freeze the conflict.. but arguing the other way not only Putins army will regroup but we in the west can do so also and then let the middle east cool down to later on concentrate our efforts on Ukraine later as middle east crisis is threatening to weaken support for Ukraine.. but really we should be concentrating with our efforts on Ukraine first, the delay in securing Ukraine is causing greater instability elsewhere..
@@timtrewyn453Yemen is a failed state run by different groups. Having been at war, with Saudi and the other Yemeni. Biden removed the houthis, from the list of terrorists. This was said, to be because of the humanitarian crisis there. So they’re not worried about their own wellbeing.
@timtrewyn453 That's true.. unless conflict spreads in the region,like Iran gets involved.. I doubt Iran will get involved directly but there will be a lot of focus,efforts and attention on middle east to make sure it doesn't.. its still a diplomatic war, that will also take time and media oxygen even after the current fighting in Gaza dies down..
Vlad, suppose that the US pulls out of the war, but Europe stays in. Would that make Putin re-evaluate his "this is all a CIA colour revolution we need to defend ourselves" Lyndon LaRoucheist stance and look for an offramp, or is he just going to assume that the CIA has switched from 4d chess to 10d-chess?
As Ukrainian I love to see how thousands and thousands of westerners truly support our struggle, how people acknowledge this war is all for democracy and freedom as such, like it's way more than just about Ukraine, but at the same time zero of western countries would support an idea of their armed forces joining the war. The war for values and principles of the Free World where the only people dying for those amazing things are Ukrainians :) Your leaders say the results of Russia's war in Ukraine will shape the future of the West for decades, but the very same countries can't event ramp up the production of artillery shells and have their legs shaking of any idea of the direct confrontation with Russia. It means your values don't mean a thing really, because you're not ready to actually act to defend those. It appears that at the end of the day Putin is right about the West. You're weak, and you will abandon your partners if someone chellange your principles as Putin did.
Sadly what you say is very true. I think our biggest mistake was at the beginning we were slow to give aid and did not give air defense. I can't help but wonder if there is a growing number of Ukrainians willing to turn to diplomacy instead of continued fighting or if the majority of Ukrainians want to continue fighting even with the unstable promises we are giving you guys. Not to mention if Trump should win (let's hope not). I totally understand the lack of trust in Russia and the anger for the horrible war crimes, but most all wars end in treaties...so the sooner the better to start talking and get a cease fire on the killing. Perhaps a demilitarized zone could be created to separate the Russian/Ukrainian border🤔
1:29 _"now _*_zalinski doesn't like to think deeply about these things_*_ so he'll say well that and this is obviously true about Putin and then this other stuff well _*_I don't get to think about it because I I get the basic picture let's just do what needs to be done um if only it were clear what needs to be done_*_ but _*_without thinking about it deeply without having a theory about exactly why Putin invaded_*_ without even being interested in one zilinsky does get that Putin won't stop unless he stopped"_ Sorry, did I just hear you say *Zelensky "Doesn't like to think deeply" about what Putin is doing, doesn't have a "theory about exactly why Putin invaded"? And you know more???* Yep, it's in the transcript. 2:53 _"the West wants to freeze the war the West is very heavily leaning into freezing the war"_ Ah, no. Not even the majority of Republicans who are trying to destroy Biden want that. In fact the vast majority of the Republican congress members want to fund Ukraine. 4:57 _"it hasn't even begun a Civic conversation properly about what other so that's Ukrainian citizens asking themselves um what do we want to hear from our government about our future that is hopeful and reassuring um if we're not going to get our territories back in 2024"_ This is just pure Kremlin propaganda. You have no idea what is under discussion, either between Zelensky and the West, or between the Ukrainian people. You are obviously also oblivious of what is underway. Look at some polls before making things up. Zelensky knows exactly what Putin's position is and exactly why he invaded. Even I know those. So does every single Ukrainian. Otherwise support for Zelensky would not be 81% (despite the best propaganda efforts to destroy it) and for the army 98%. Look at the options Ukraine had in February 2022. Look at the options Churchill had. You are just talking ignorant western people into what the Kremlin wants. *_Human trafficking. By a government of millions of it's own citizens, their homes, their businesses, and their regional resources._* Too bad if their guaranteed rights are violated. *_Landlocked economic death, flooding European markets until they are cut off there as well._* *_The prospect of it's own citizens that it human trafficked, traumatised by being sold, brainwashed into becoming the next meat flow but better armed and with far more weaponry of every kind._* 7:03 _"the West never made a political commitment to Ukraine regaining its territories"_ - you obviously stopped listening a while ago. The rhetoric has changed. Go out into the electronic world and have a listen to what the leaders are actually saying. Not what the media is saying, that has no sources at all. Did you just get a new paymaster? You have lost morality, ethics and changed into a Ritter. Unsubscribed.
yes its unlikely Ukraine will get back any significant amount of territory but its not impossible i dont think most people saw the Kharkiv gains and that it kind of just happened as the russians kept pulling back something like that could happen again if certain conditions are met and we cannot say for sure they wont be met in 2024 its doubtful but it can happen
The GDP of the richest countries in the world can´t beat the dwarf GDP of russia? It all about the willingness of the west. At this moment, it doesn´t look like they want Ukraine to win
@@larzkruber822 Is it all about the willingness of the west? Why didn't the US win in Vietnam then? Or the USSR in Afghanistan, if it’s just a matter of comparing economies?
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u No one can change the Afghans, we too tried and failed. My dad was in Vietnam and he said the Americans could not tell who was N. Vietnamese and who was S. Vietnamese. The Americans could easily be fooled as to who was their ally or enemy. They also did not understand the language...and it was all jungle. So perhaps the terrain helped the Vietnamese kick us out and likewise the terrain in Afghanistan is too difficult for foreigners. Also in Vietnam, many American men were drafted so their heart was not in it...whereas the N. Vietnamese were perhaps more dedicated to their cause. If Americans were sent to Ukraine I think we would have the same problem and not be able to distinguish Russians from Ukrainians...I can tell by names who is who....but too difficult to know who is Russian or Ukrainian by only seeing them.
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 I don't think you can tell the difference by their names either. That is why, especially at the beginning of the conflict, the troops were marked in different colors, Ukraine with green, blue and yellow. Russia white and red. I’m just saying that not everything depends on the simple desire of the West; the more effort is invested in Ukraine, the higher the chance that other corners of the earth will get out of control.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Names ending in -ova or -nova seem Ukrainian and and names ending in -ev and -vich seem more Russian...but that's just a general idea I kind of figured. True and sadly lots of Americans either don't follow the war, don't care or don't want to share money. So only some of us are really following the developments and more concerned about the outcome. Lots of jokes online that Zelensky is buying a yacht with the money or jewelry for his wife with the money...I have seen on American news sites.
If global conflict is escalating, is it better to do it quickly or slowly? The first game theorists said fast, as the first one to make the strongest move possible is in the better position. The alternate view is that the more speed bumps there are along the way, the more chances there are for peace and cooperation to unexpectedly break out.
Vlad, is there a reason you stopped talking about war in Israel? You’ve made a few videos about it when the war began but since then you said pretty much nothin. It's not that you have to, you don’t but at this point it looks like you are deliberately ignoring it considering just how much happens around this conflict - South Africa in IJC, UK and US striking Huthis and so on.
I kindof want to be Estonia, not the Baltics all the time. Not that i have anything against Latvians or Lithuanians, i don't. I just want to be Estonia.
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 we're like Finland but we're also like Latvians. It's not about that. We're Estonians. Because of the soviet ocupation we're always the Baltics for the outside. witch is superficial but annoying.
@@kairoosaar5530 Very understandable...yeah that would be really annoying...since you are three distinct countries...it would be like if we here were just all called North America instead of Canada, USA and Mexico...because yeah we are very proud of our uniqueness as Americans. That's how they taught me in school Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia...and mentally they all kind of group together in my thought process....but I do very much respect the distinction. 👍
I also disagree with you for the first time since I listen to you. What happened to you ?Did you fell for some propaganda call ?I' m wondering .Please use words of truth,not defeat.because that's what you talk about ;"you will drown in the river" It is a war battleground.Say the WORDS
Video later today on some of this. My position has not changed and neither has my analysis of the dynamic. Although weaker western support is a new trend.
According to liberals nowadays all fact is interpretation. Since most don't recognize ultimate truth and think that truth is what is believed. It's not like anyone is being original in this regard. So when a liberal of almost any sort says "show me fact and i'll consider it" I know it is usually a pretense of objectivity. btw objectivity itself in the liberal idea of "truth" is a non sequiter because objectivity implies a deeper truth than either that which is perceived or believed. if it were anyone but Vlad, i would simply call bullshit instead of presenting my case for doubt.
Here a fact Ukraine already lost this war the what to send women to the frontlines like Germany in 1945 this why Ukraine is losing they ar desperate the end is here for Ukraine
Here is another fact. Russia claims to have the second most powerful army in the world, yet its industrial base is so corrupt and inefficient it has to beg a tin pot little dictatorship like North Korea to supply it with ammunition.
I was just listening to Rachmaninov and talking with my brother about how painfully awesome Russian composers are. Do you discuss this somewhere? What about the dying art of writing music on paper? I still do sometimes wake up in the middle of the night and scribble a few notes down. And I am certain this art is dying with us. Help.
I optimistically disagree! The tradition is alive, but the difference is that it breaks into the consciousness of most people less than other kinds of art, such as painting. I will be talking about this more on the new classical music channel in 2024. No videos there yet, but the channel is up.
Do you seriously think if there had been an equivilant to Gonzalo Lira in Britain during WWII when the Nazis were bombing London every night he would be walikng about free? Only someone like Elon Musk or Tucker Calton could come up with such unrealistic idea - wait a moment they have.
Hi beautiful community, just to emphasise: 'Freezing' the war is tempting for the West, but it is not a sustainably available option. Negotiations are for Putin either undesirable, or a gambit to gain an advantage in the war.
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Putin wants to serve up a "war-sicle," a frozen treat that tastes exactly like surrender.
And when dealing with crossing rivers it is good to make realistic assessments as to what rivers one can and can't cross. And to do that first one might try to ascertain what is by in large factual.
So one fact is that (as compared to the range of modern long range missiles and aircraft) the Black Sea is pretty dang small!
So is the Baltic sea, and even more so with Finland in NATO and Sweden likely to join soon, as soon!
Thus with air power and sea drones attacking the Russian Sea fleet is getting ever is a bit like the proverbial shooting ducks in a duck pond.
An when Ukraine gets it F-16 that duck pond gets even smaller!
Thus the Military importance of Crimea is not what it used to be in that it is now more of an Achilles heel than a bastion for basing sea power.
So aside from the humanitarian aspects, possessing Crimea may not be as much of a liability as an asset.
Thus while liberating Crimea is a great goal it might be a questionable strategy (and BTW one might Goggle
Why Ukraine can't provide a clear strategy to Mike Johnson and Anders Puck Nielsen who gives a great definition of what is a strategy.
So if liberating Crimea is a river a bit too wide for Ukraine to cross then maybe it's place becomes more of a bargaining chip to get something else that would give Ukraine even greater security, like NATO membership.
For Ukraine at one time had Crimea and lost it. So if they get it again there is not guarantee that it then can lose it again as well, that being it might be a liability to whomever has it.
As such maybe it would be better to make it its own independent country and have UN troops in it to maintain order, noting that Russia is part of the UN as well.
So then what might the best strategy for the west be?
Perhaps it is to make continuing the war more trouble to Putin than what it is worth and give him an out... and *as the Bible commands) leave vengeance to God.
Thus the west needs to keep support Ukraine so Russia can never win, maintain sanctions, and the lobby for a independent Crimea (which Ukraine my not like but it is better than a Russian controlled one).
It could be occupied (initially) with UN troops (including Russian troops, so they need not have to "pull out" but wester troops as well.
Sevastopol can be declared an open port for all to use (as it is no longer a viable naval base).
If Russia agrees to that the west will lift sanctions, help the drill for oil in the artic and forgive all rather than try to try to seek out reparations, which BTW how well do that work after WW1 and how much better did letting Germany off work after WW2 where they committed far more grievous crimes).
So to get all to agree to a negotiated solution it is best to have a win win for all, and that includes Russia as well as Crimea.
So Ukraine gets peace and security (joining NATO). Crimea gets independence. Russia gets forgiveness and assistance (plus loads of eggs!) and Putin should be able to spin that as a win for him as well, showing how Russian troops are still are in Crimea and thus declaring the "special military operation" was a whopping success in that it "forced" the west to end its sanctions on Russia and conceded Crimea to be under Russian "control, along with the rest of the UN (though he might forget to mention the later to the Russian people)!
True. And probably the best way to provide this is to allow it to join NATO.@@RyolithRandil
@@RonLWilson In that case the UN troops might turn up being russian in fact.
The other day we had 9 air raids in one day. My city is bombed almost every day. I'm so used to the sound of explosions it's ridiculous. My cat has started sleeping in the bathroom and corridor.
My neighbours are at war fighting the enemy 30+ times larger with almost bare hands nowadays. Their child is raised by a grandma right now. I asked her how he reacts to the explosions - she says she tells him it's a car backfiring... He's 3 and is still being shielded from the war although he's right in the middle 💔
I want to ask whoever reads this - please write to your politicians. Please ask them to support us. Please understand that if Ukraine falls it will be your sons and fathers who are drafted.
You might think you don't have any influence on the situation, that an email to your government is a drop in an ocean... But isn't the ocean made of drops?
Also, thank you Vlad and everyone for your continuous support ❤️
The entire Western world as well as Japan are giving you everything we can.
But we very much underestimated Russia. We tried to defeat Russia using sanctions as well as isolating Russia from the entire world.
And of course we tried pushing Russia out of Ukraine using your military and our equipment and money.
But we failed.
Eventually Zelenskyy will negotiate an end to the war.
There is no threat to us. Please understand that although there is an absolutely huge campaign to have westerners all around the world believe that Russia is trying to take over the world, it's not going to happen. Most people don't believe this is the case or don't care.
Russia is in fact doing the opposite. They are leaving the West. They don't want anything to do with us anymore.
Good luck.
@@vera. I have been praying for the fighting to end...I do plan on voting for Biden since he most likely will do a better job of sending aid. I can't help but wonder if there is not a growing number of Ukrainians that would like to see a peace treaty signed to end the war. I have tried to put myself in your place and I would probably be willing to give up a couple states in order to have peace. Russia really dug in on this war..it seems personal for them...like when a husband will not let his wife leave...even though he no longer loves her...Russia does not want Ukraine joining the western nations...but the Donbass seems likely could be traded for the rest of Ukraine to be free....much love from California 🙏💛💙💛💙 We have not forgotten you guys.
@@vera. One little side story that may bring you some joy...here in a local newspaper out of Berkeley California...a Ukrainian immigrant started a bakery and is hiring all Ukrainian refugees, many don't know much English and need work...they make Ukrainian pastries...in a few weeks I am going up to Berkeley and I am going to check it out. Here in California a lot of people have much love and support for Ukraine. ☺
@@SlpBeauty333 Good point about Biden...Biden has a kind heart. NYC and New England have our oldest architecture , thankfully San Francisco too has beautiful Victorian style buildings...but otherwise most all of California is strip malls and urban sprawl. 🤣 Ah ,The Gilded Age..Carnegie and Rockefeller...Capitalism on steroids...winner takes all. 😉 Glad we got some controls on that...but sadly we still need some more. 😃
I’m totally opposed to “freezing the war.” It is in essence asking Ukraine to unilaterally disarm😡
You're totally right. The idea that war should be frozen is just... naïve at best, malevolent at worst. We all want peace, I understand that, but freezing it won't bring peace; it will bring a worse war in the medium-term future 😭 Putin won't stop unless he can't go on anymore, and a cease-fire obviously won't achieve that
There's nothing to worry about.
Russia has clearly stated that there will be no freezing of the conflict.
The war will play out.
You know better what to do for ukrainians living outside of war zone
True. Plus, we'd have to fight the army of ZZombies ourselves a couple of years from now, so it'd be double idiotic to play into Putin's hands🤷♂
I am only supporting what Ukraine wants. And I know that while the evil empire has any troops occupying parts of the country there can never be peace or economic security. The Baltics know what they are talking about when it comes to ruzzia.
Horrendously depressing message from you today. Latvia was abandoned and handed to the Russians after WWII. We Latvians know what conceding to the Russians entails. Nobody deserves that, and no equilibristic argumentation will convince me.
Greetings from Finland! We here also know with experience that Russia is not to be trusted!
No. Latvia was handed to the Soviets. Get your facts straight. And, Ukraine is having a hard time finding more men to fight. You should go volunteer.
@@renstein8210 I chose my words carefully - a Russian is a Russian, be it in Czarist, Soviet or present times.
@@marakreslina3747 Russians always are Czarist, just the name/title changes.
@@renstein8210
Pathetic attempt to sanitise the moscovite tsar. russia WAS the Soviet Union. You want proof?
putin claims Ukraine belongs to russia. But according to you, Vatnik, Latvia once belonged to the Soviet Union, not russia. And you are right! Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia , Moldova, Ukraine, russia, Kazakhstan, and many more, once belonged to the Soviet Union. But the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. So how can Ukraine belong to russia?
Could it be that russia, or more specifically, moscow, WAS the Soviet Union?
Slava Ukraini 🇬🇧🇺🇦💛💙
I do not know what I can promise as an American, but I know there is a lot of continuing support for Ukraine, even if our toxic politics obstructs from us expressing it!
Politicians don't talk about paddling halfway across the river, or even swimming across. They claim if they are elected, the river won't exist. Instead of admitting that some children admittedly will be left behind under any education policy, they say "No child left behind." That translates to, "There is no behind."
Let your representative (and whoever's running against them) know that your vote depends on their support for Ukraine. Donate whatever you can easily spare. Slap down Russian disinfo whenever you see it.
Great to see you back, pal. Hope you're feeling better!
Thanks so much. Struggling quite a bit in this video, hence so slow and rambly!
Now, if my neighbour knocked down the partition wall between my house and theirs while I was asleep and took over a quarter of my house, and I then started to fight back using the bricks from the knocked down wall for the next 3 years, and then my other neighbours got together at the UN and said'' oh is there any chance you could come to some agreement with your neighbour as we can't handle the constant brick throwing as it's lowering our house prices and lowering to tone of the overall area. ''I would actually tell them where to go in not so many words''. This neighbour has stolen a quarter of my house and for all I know once I capitulate over the quarter of my house what's stopping them taking the remainder of my house in a few years' time while I'm asleep. So, I gather those trying to pressure Ukraine into negotiating with Putin have financial & hidden motives. In my way of thinking this makes them complicit in the present and future war crimes and ethnic cleansing in my book.
They want to get back to lucrative gas and oil business with Russia
And add to that, your neighbor kidnapped some of your kids. Compromise with evil is evil itself.
The ICJ is going to think that too.
Putin can never be negotiated with. Not ever.
I hope, that at least the British won't let this 'freeze' happen. Brits of all countries have to keep 'yomping' for Ukraine. We just have to.
It is a cross party issue in the UK.
@@VladVexlerChat I hope it remains so even with a Trump administration in the US. Perhaps the likely collapse of the Tory party helps protect the UK regardless, or at least, that's what I tell myself.
@@alantyndall85 In America, we don't have a labor party. All the labor is done by illegal immigrants.
Contrary to what Vlad says, Russia will not allow a freeze in the war. So, you don’t need to worry about that happening.
Given our history, we have a certain sympathy with underdog countries that stand against fascists.
Getting all territories back is the biggest strongarmed position of Ukraine, but it doesn't necessarily resolve the war. Ukraine wants a future of peace. Peace is achieved by military deterrence, and that can only become possible with the ability for Ukraine to arm itself with help from the West (so anti-Russian/Putin concept of demilitarisation), the second is Ukraine's ability to form its own military and economic treaties, (ie Joining EU, a bespoke defensive treaty or NATO).
The irony here is for Ukraine there is a big danger in negotiating on these points with Russia unless they have already got 100% confirmation from the West backing these positions. So until the West agrees they can back up Ukraine longer term their best strategy is to hold on and go for full return of Ukraine territories. And countries that truly understand this will continue to support them.
Zelensky has stated that Ukraine can not abandon it's citizens in the occupied territories to Russian occupation and repression.
@@artmcteagle What kind of repression?
What kind of question is this?
Russia is brutally repressive to people who don’t toe their totalitarian party line. It’s been said that the Kremlin is the tallest building in the world because you can see Siberian prison camps from the basement.
You know very well Mr Troll.@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u As in Putin can never be voted out of office, no matter how poor his leadership.
There is a toxic mindset in the West through the past 30 years that sees to "freeze" or "to pause" as a means and a solution itself. Beyond politics, I've experienced this attitude in business myself and with America's government constantly running out of funds and they only delay government shutdowns with short pauses funded by temporary appropriations. When something doesn't work out, how we in the West want, we now strive for a "pause" rather than a constructive solution.
Yes, the "time out" borrowed from sports replaced corporal punishment.
When you say "American government" in your example, you are actually talking about one party that risks (and sometimes accomplishes) gov't shutdowns: Republicans.
democracies love short term solutions. it's like failing the marshmallow test - instead of waiting and getting 2 marshmallows, you just eat the marshmallow immediately.
@@diane9247 But is not the Democrats proposed solution to a shut down only raising a debt-cap for a few weeks/months, then the government runs out of money again? Why doesn't the USA have a more sustainable solution such as cutting spending, pay back debt, and avoid just another debt-cap raise and kicking the can down the road until another shutdown looms?
@@mattblom3990nope because both sides are total trash but can only see the other as such.
Getting halfway across the river was so hard everyday. It seems that there is no end to how hard everyday will be. Or how how many days remain. But. Only by pushing hard everyday do we get to the other side.
Vlad, it is late and perhaps I have not understood properly. Situations like war are extremely unpredictable, so how can you even guess what a realistic outcome may be? Since we do not seem to be able/doing everything to help decisively defeat russia this year, we still have to do everything to let Ukraine atritt it as much as possible, because there is nothing reasonable that can be negotiated in the near or mid-term future. And I think it will be only then (when russia admits some reasonable exit - which, given the vast destruction that it has caused, cannot be very comfortable for it) that a decision could be made about possible outcomes and negotiation goals. And you cannot rule out that russia could start to have serious internal problems at some time (of course, you cannot rule it out anywhere).
Sometimes it is not up to us to really decide whether to try to swim, there are situations where it may be the only reasonable chance.
Someone i know -- a Ukrainian -- is either alive or dead in a gulag or in a grave... that is a true story unfortunately. I hold that story with with sorrow and a sense of duty. There are thousands of such "disappeared" Ukrainians, most Ukrainians have been touched by the war, and all are affected. There are hundreds of thousands of stolen children. I heard some of what happened in one occupied city directly from a friend, with no media filter; all this has greatly affected my experience of this war, which i have lived in physical safetu. The war is not over, we cannot predict the outcome. I am reminded that the Allies were losing to the Axis powers for the first 3-4 years of WW2. Military and logistic changes re-shaped the entire framework of that war in a slow, complex way however. The ground of this war -- military, economic, political -- is actually fluid, even 2 years is not sufficient to draw out a trend line. We do not know the outcome. Not knowing leaves us with our moral sense and our intuition both intact, and useful in the concrete present. Vlad, you have stated a "weakening of support" for Ukraine as a fact, or the best interpretation of trends you observe. I think that is premature, and oddly i see the facts as pointing to interpretations other than exhaustion. The global context and likelihood of a multi-year war make the context wider than it might seem at the moment, and Kremlin influence over media make it hard to hink clearly. Let us not join the chorus of people talking about termination, nor certainly those talking about cesefire or surrender in the middle of an annihilation of civilains and their culture.
Lol 🤣 sir this is why Ukraine is losing . Vlad was lying to you guys the whole time. Now that things are worsening because of things heading downward
The narrowest distance between mainland Russia and mainland Alaska is approximately 55 miles. Alaska is 1 1/2 times the size of Ukraine. Imagine if Russia invaded Alaska across the Bering Strait. At the closest point one could walk 2.5 miles from the nearest Russian Island to the nearest US Island in the Bering Strait when that area freezes solid. The U.S. would not hesitate to knock out all the logistics sites and paths that Russia used to invade Alaska and that would be the end of the invasion.
The same could be true of Ukraine using long range missiles and fighter jets in sufficient quantity. General Hodges and General Bleedlove who have both led troops in Nato in Europe, know how to make Ukraine victorious - Ukraine needs the correct tools. The US has only given 0,3% of its military budget to help Ukraine. NATO countries that border Russia have given much more by percent of their military budget. These countries will not stop helping Ukraine because if Ukraine falls NATO eventually becomes involved in saving these countries on Russia's border..
We have no idea what tomorrow will bring. Did anyone predict hot water filling the streets in up to 20 established areas mostly in and around Moscow, from broken water pipes and boilers, freezing out the residents with no heat and no water? Not that I am aware of. Did anyone predict Prigozhin's mutiny? Not that I am aware of.
Russia's economy is not any more stable than the US economy and look what happened overnight in the US in 2008 to its economy.
I believe Timothy Snyder, General Hodges and General Breedlove, all born in the USA who know Ukrainian history and know that in every great war and event in history, Ukraine played an outsized role. Ukraine will eventually regain Crimea and Putin will fall. Ukraine has never let up in taking out Russia logistics. One day Kherson will be liberated. Because Russia cannot win. Pieces are falling off Russia's personae as we speak. No one is infallible. Not Putin, not Trump. They have poked and poked and poked the hornets nest and the hornets are out for the kill.... But... I still love you Vlad, even if you are a realist with a dash of salt.
Lol the fantasies.
Thanks for your efforts
If Russia wanted to take over the USA, what they should do, is have tens of millions of Russian citizens march _unarmed_ across the Bering Strait and claim "asylum" (like what's happening on the US southern border), and then become the biggest Democrat-voting bloc in the US politics.
It starts and ends with Krim
Did you send me a message…about Telegram ???
Why are everuvo forgetting this
"The Budapest Memorandum[1] a multilateral political declaration made in 1994. It was signed on 5 December in Budapest at the conference of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) held here. The convention contains non-binding security policy promises to the signatories in connection with the accession of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan to the NPT on the limitation of nuclear weapons. The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom. Later, China and France also issued statements of support.
The Treaty's security guarantees apply in the event of threats to or use of force affecting the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. As a result, Ukraine dismantled the world's third largest nuclear arsenal between 1994 and 1996.
At the outbreak of the crisis in Crimea in 2014, the United States stated that the Russian intervention constituted a violation of the Budapest Memorandum on guarantees to Ukraine and a clear violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
"The convention contains non-binding security policy promises to the signatories". This is something that most people constantly forget about.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u It put Russia on notice that the other signatories might make things uncomfortable for Russia if the assurances were set aside. And that is what has happened. Perhaps we can assume Putin foresaw all of this and he sees this as the path to his success. But he cannot claim the US/UK response has no basis.
@@timtrewyn453 But Putin wasn't made uncomfortable in 2014. So he took the next bite.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u It's not a "convention". It';s a Treaty. And it's binding. Poisonous propaganda lies.
Ukraine has no choice but to humour the US and the UK while it is dependent on them for arms (which they refused to sell to it before the invasions).
Wait until after the invasion is ended and it goes to the ICJ. All 3 violated the treaty.
Он перестал действовать когда на Украине произошел государственный переворот и мы воспользовались этим
the west is utterly failing ukraine and its a modern tragedy.
It's worse than that. We're using Ukraine.
It's shameful.
@@markbryant4641 You nailed it....😢😢😢
@@markbryant4641 In fairness, valuable data on American weapons are coming out of Ukraine, like in South Vietnam.
@@AstroGremlinAmerican . For sure. Both sides are moving forward.
Russia is taking it seriously.
We are not.
@@AstroGremlinAmericanthat is the weakest justification that I could imagine someone giving in this situation.
Lovely to hear from you as always Vlad.
I'm curious if the news of the UK's recent pledge of support alters your perspective on support for Ukraine degrading within western circles in general?
Perhaps I'm being overly optimistic but I'm hopeful their new commitment might spur other western states to renew and sustain their support.
It doesn’t, as the support is limited and the commitment is moderate. However my view is that while we can make progress, we can’t entirely break out of this as we don’t have sufficient democratic capacity at home in our democracies.
@@VladVexlerChat A reasonable position to take and thank you for replying. I trust you're in good health and I'm very much looking forward to your next videos.
Be well and lots of love from me to you :)
Ukrainian victory an impossible goal? Depends how you define victory. But Churchill was insistent on an 'impossible goal' in 1939 that Germany must be defeated - and it WAS possible because the United States decided that it was possible. Russian being completely pushed out of Ukraine is possible with the right sort of military aid from the United States. Russia would not roll over and say, "OK, you have won," at that point though and so it would not be a victory in that sense, but then it must be accepted that Russia is in a permanent state of war with the West and without an existential collapse of Russia, that war will never be won. The best that can happen is that Russia is contained and the West must rearm to do that.
No they won because of Russia not the USA
Thank you again Vlad for helping us make sense of what's happening (or not). I take it the the West here is used as an abstraction, and as a generalisation. But not all of Ukraine's partners determination is as brittle, as say, France. Some clearly feel threatened enough, like Poland and the Baltics and might not give up despite some democratic dysfunctions. Some still seem functional democracies to me, like the scandinavians and maybe Netherlands. Some more might fit in either or both categories. None are major players but we're still talking about a considerable amount of countries.
The Netherlands run by stable free, open, pluriform, international human rights democratic governance is highly dubious today. Since, the latest national elections were a clear victory for the PVV, the party of Putin loving leader Geert Wilders. His first main goal was to rewrite the Dutch Constitution. He wants to make second class citizens of immigrants, and probably their descendants to a certain generation.
Take a look at the comparison of their combined economies with Russia's. Then tell me they're not "major players".
you did not get that here Vlad advocates for Ukraine to negociate giving up territory , now that the west does not help. And the he is annoyed by NAFO , the only entity that fight russian propaganda and expose their strategies. So disapointed in vlad, after more than an year. Never understood though that he never organized fuindraise for Ukraine as the other pro Ukraine youtube channels did. Maybe he is not advocating for dismantle of Russian empire after all. geopolitics and stuff..
All countries dependent on the USA
Thank you Vlad!
If plan "A" is not working I'd suggest Zelensky make a speech to the Ukrainian people stating that hope arises from many historical examples. If I were him I'd mention these three:
1) The Taliban in Afghanistan took ~ 25 years to become victorious.
2) The north Vietnamese took roughly 30 years to defeat the French and Americans in their country.
3) The Iberians needed over 770 years to kick the Moors out of their peninsula.
The message to the Ukrainians should be: never give up no matter what.
Damn!
Thanks Vlad
As Churchill said: If you’re going through hell: Keep going. We must think about that when we find ourselves halfway your river. Usually we would use a boat or a bridge. Swimming to the other side is already not a freely made choice. When we find ourselves in solidarity with Ukraine (however select that group may be or become) it is fitting to remember that Ukraine has no choice other than to survive.
The first half of your talk (I don’t like the term conversation Vlad; it’s too one-sided for that) made me think of Von Clausewitz. As in war, the value of the initiative is equally great in diplomacy. We make a grave mistake if we let russia hijack our domestic view on things, and then take it from there to the conference table. Zelensky is absolutely right to fear that more than anything else, because it indeed means that the russians will be back in under a decade to finish the job.
One one side, the West has just some "moral obligations" to Ukraine and the Western politicians are only accountable (ideally) to the citizens of their respective countries. One the other side, only the Ukrainians can decide when to stop fighting Russia. The overall decline in support is maybe a sign that politicians in the West feel that "support to Ukraine for as long as it takes" starts to affect their comfort zone and the comfort zone of their citizens.
Meanwhile, there is no reasonably achievable way to an Ukrainian victory and any "freezing of the war/independence +" in which Russia keeps any occupied territory is a Russian victory.
Sounds bad for Ukraine and for everybody else in the West.
There's more than one way to skin a cat or in this case a bear. It may appear to those looking at a map every day and not seeing any change in the control of territory but that's not the only way to win a war. Im talking about Russia's economy and its will to fight. Its economy has only about 6 or 8 months to live. If Ukraine can hold out that long it will win, Russia will be forced to withdraw. The signs of industrial degradation have taken a sudden turn. A large number of Russians have been living without heat and electricity. They are very angry. Food shortages are increasing. Recently eggs and now chicken..its coming aoart. China is further down the same path.
6 to 8 months . Wow 😂
For me the importance of the goal has an impact of whether you should try to make the swim. If it doesn't matter so much if the goal is achieved then canoeing down is OK but if the impact of the goal is sufficiently high then you have to swim across, balancing or minimising the risks of failure as much as you can. For me, the impact of Ukraine failing to cross the river has that level of importance, not just for Ukraine but for the overall international rule of law we have tried to agree for the past 70 years as a way of reducing wars in general and improving the overall lot of people.
Well, while Vlad has been pontificating about abstract rivers, Ukrainian marines have actually been crossing the very real Dnieper River and kicking Russian butt. I don't think Zelenskyy is paying attention to doom mongers.
Vlad, what I hear or how I interpret what you're saying is this, President Biden would never say that he/the USA would support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression “until Ukraine was victorious.” President Biden said he would support Ukraine “until the end”. What frightens me the most is this, is Ukraine's deadlock in the war today what Biden interprets as “the end”?
That was really very good. I see what you mean. Thanks, as ever.
Thank you as ever.
Your channel is by far the most useful I am following. For me, it raises questions of what I can do about the situation.
Still don't know, though.
Moods in my country are not only towards ending the conflict - the majority support Russia.
There is a strong tendency of de - politicization. Myself, I did not care about politics until the war started.
Anyway - love your content! It helps me with very difficult questions
Thank you so much. Ukraine’s independence is safe enough, but there is no capacity for strategy, which is a pre requisite for deeper support.
@@VladVexlerChatUkraine's independence is over. Stop lying 🤥
@@VladVexlerChat Hope that reality will find some trick to prove you wrong in the second part.
Ukraine can very well get back Crimea, if the West provide long range capabilities (atacms or similar) in high enough quantities. This would have a big impact on morale on both sides, and allow putting pressure on Mariupol. Also this would provide momentum to the West in the sense of confirmation that the military aid enables Ukraine to gain back its territory. At that point it might become obvious even to people in the Kremlin that there is no path to victory for them anymore and the war is lost strategically for Russia. I am curious what would happen - start of negotiations , coup or something else?
Joe Biden has plans that obviously don't include victory. He also has plans to run for office this November. Joe was skipped over for Hillary Clinton, considered more electable. He dropped out one time due to plagiarism but his son has done very well in business overseas.
Could you please, please think critically about the propaganda that you consume? We know this strategy won’t work. We have known for decades this strategy won’t work. Russia, despite having many many long range missiles still hasn’t conquered that far into Ukraine. Why on earth would Ukraine, getting a few more missiles allow it to conquer Crimea?
Why would sending some HIMARS to Ukraine allow it to retake Kherson? Russia has more MLRS, and it hasn’t captured Kyiv - why would anyone think that sending some HIMARS would enable retaking Kherson? That’s what you sound like.
@@renstein8210false. This is a war of attrition for Russia
А для Украины разве нет?
I do not agree with "The West wants to freeze the war".
1. I think, the West is annoyed, but not interested in the war. Therefor the West has no strategy beyond sanctions. "wanting to freeze" would be a strategy.
2. Western politicians are focused on their national goals: Migration, growth, climatic change, cheap energy, ... , and winning elections.
3. Combining the first two points my assessment is: What looks like "The West wants to freeze the war" is very much like Russia's unpolitical blob. "We aren't interested what Putin does, as long as it doesn't affect us at home." The frozen war past 2014 didn't affect us at home.
4. Let's start politicizing the West. This channel contributes already.
This it the best comment, thank you so much! There's no strategy, "freeze" or even "exchange Ukraine for another bs promise from russia" would be a strategy. Westerners just don't care and want the war to go away. Mobilizing them politically could be a solution.
I don't agree that wanting to freeze would be a strategy - the way I described that instinct, it is entirely unstrategic..
@@VladVexlerChat Exactly. But no one raises in a western political party by being unstrategic. My conclusion: It is not a goal. No goal - nothing wanted. It's being neither hot nor cold.
Thanks
the opening cracked me up
❤ Great analysis as always Vlad V! Atb
Thank you
It seems to me the desire to 'freeze' the war is a yearning to return to pre-war conditions. That appears, to me at least, as an 'unobtainable' opposite bank of the river. We now have Iran emboldened at the prospect of UN security council veto at its call, same for DPRK, which has gained a partner to 'play off' against China. True, those issues take minds off Ukraine situation. However, they also add more variables to confuse calculations. The world has changed. Russia's defeat will spoil our adversaries calculations, seems a better choice in long run.
I think that’s a very good way of putting it: there is no way to turn the clock back to February 2023. The situation in Feb 2022 was itself a problem, not a solution.
This talk about some political changes being destructive if not completed properly reminds me of the political disintegration of the Soviet Union, when there was a great desire for reform, but no clear strategy on how to make things better.
Thank you Vlad we appreciate your thoughts and insights and hope you’re coping with your health issues. When we stand up as a humanity/free world with our promise to stand with Ukraine then we must honour this by Standing United against the dark energies of old for how long it takes for that is where your strength lays Standing United together for a common cause PEACE and DEMOCRACY that empowers all of Humanity. We see the dark energies of old are indeed showing its ugliness with wars, aggression and corrupted regimes as dark energy dies hard at this time. We have at this time the opportunities to hold our light over this darkness where they no longer have the power to use aggressions, atrocities and commit the human rights abuses we have seen for centuries. The world today must move forward away from the past ways that only supported some and enabled the darker energies to misuse their power for their own manipulation and control and these ways only support those corrupted regimes. If we want Real changes then We as a Humanity must stand United to Make and Achieve Positive Changes that Represents and Empowers our Freedom, Rights and Democracies around the world that recognises the rights and basic needs of every nation without wars, aggression and violence. We all have the power within to Create the changes and a brighter future and peaceful world for all children.🙏🏻🙏🏻💚💚🙏🏻🙏🏻
9:00 thats circular explanation right here
No Rest for the wicked 😊
My mom used to always say that one 🤣🤣🤣
The only freezing in this war is being done during Winter. Right now!
I am starting to wonder what is considered "West" in regards of freezing the war... because some NATO states (Poland, Czechia, baltic countries) are pretty open in supporting Ukraine way beyond what other NATO members do...
Americans will always choose, why not try. If it doesn’t work, then we will do something else. This business of trianglulating that Jake Sullivan/national security council is pursuing is completely un-American and unintelligible to those of us paying attention. We don’t play chess. we make a plan and try it. And then, improvise as needed. that’s our business doctrine, our military doctrine, our political doctrine, our everything doctrine. Give it a try and figure it out along the way.
Yep, that's us in a nutshell...that's why we make great entrepreneurs, explorers and developers....I think it's in our DNA to be risk takers 😅 and it either goes awesome or we fail miserably...but we love taking chances and going all in. However, with our foreign policy it has lately been abysmal...the withdrawal from Afghanistan was pathetic and we are doing a real half a** job with Ukraine. But in general we do go all in.
I think it is fair to say that President Biden and Jake Sullivan's crowd are not elaborating a theory of military victory. I think Vlad was right about that. But it does not mean they never will. There was a great piece this week in Kyiv Post about a securtity consultant from Rand who has been around the White House for 2 years, and in public writing articles about how Ukraine has no way to win. If he could sell that to Biden, it might start to become true... I wish we had better politicians. But as Americans, we have a great burden to push our political leaders to support Ukraine in victory. It is a very tall order, hard, but possible.
Wishful thinking is only that. Wishful thinking.
I am feeling more and more frustrated by the United State's response here. On the one hand maybe it is just being inept...I sure hope there is no maliciousness in our lack of fortitude. We are sending weapons which just perpetuates the fighting it seems...either we need to send enough weapons to win or insist on peace talks. It feels wrong to just be causing so many deaths on both the Ukrainian side and Russian side as we sit idly by watching. If we are giving the most weapons, we must take responsibility to push for a quick and peaceful end...not just allowing the soldiers and civilians to die in vain.
Privately, Biden would like to support Ukraine more than he thinks he can.
@@VladVexlerChat Biden overall has done very well to stick to his guns and keep pushing for Ukrainian aid..even being willing to negotiate on increased border security. He did better than many other politicians would have done...to keep Ukraine aid a top priority, hopefully he will get another 4 years.
How are you feeling, Vlad?
Thank you so much for asking. Always doing well under the circumstances, but do need my health to be better! It's very limiting at the moment.
Ohhh this makes me feel - cartoonishly ;) - a little like a Monty Python "Gumby".
MY!!! BRANE..!! HURTSS!!!
This is a good sign, it means I'm trying to think about things using new ideas and suchlike.
Dear Vlad, your projection of a 'civic' conversation in Ukraine about alternatives to getting all their territory back ignores the polls that are overwhelmingly in favour of getting back their territory. Why are you imposing a speculative question on the Ukrainian public? Why do you not say that it is your question?
Important not to ignore polls. This will be a year of politicisation in Ukraine. The legitimacy of the govt to an extent rests on a short successful war - this legitimacy will need to be renegotiated. Political life in Ukraine is clearly, visibly, re appearing. I am introducing this to the community as an important factor to think about in 2024. No Ukrainian wants to give up territory, but increasingly, Ukrainians will go on to ask of the government: what is your plan? What alternatives do you have if plan A is not working? Are you governing us responsibly during this extraordinary difficult time? What lessons are there from 2023 and are you able to act on those? And so on. This is happening already and it is not speculative.
But can Macron endure another year?...
Different countries can be put under pressure in different ways, and as for Denmark, a major stress, that might make some ask for negotiations with Russia, would be if our shipping industry were in jeopardy due to the events in the Red Sea. If even more crises are put on top of other crises. A giant such as "Maersk" has tremendous power. When economy, free trade, growth are under pressure, some priorities may have to be made. A frigate will be sent to the area end of January and that will mean another crisis to handle militarily. Our forces are already in a pretty poor shape.
I am committed to Ukraine trying to win, but certainly fully arming Ukraine in case the outcome is a line like South Koreans have facing the North would be beneficial for Ukraine's long term stability. Although, I'm not convinced that they cannot win completely, because of what former NATO commander Ben Hodges has to say, as well as Rasmussen. Military strategists tend to offer a unique window on the conflict. Something's going to budge, either the Republicans will agree on a workable compromise, or the frozen assets will begin thawing and flowing into Ukraine.
Basically Putin thought Ukraine would be a cakewalk, and it wasn't. He needs time to rebuild a much larger army, and if the west gives him that, we will all of us pay for that mistake. This is the time to double down on support.
Lol Putin is on track already to get what he wants
Jake Sullivan's wet dream. Why does he think freezing it this time will work out any better than it did last time?
The west cannot drown in supporting a Ukranian victory. Wars are primarily exercises in economy and production, and there's no question that the collective west can outproduce Russia while still maintaining a good standard of living. People forget we've been through worst, much worst, and managed to persevere and the world is the better for it.
On the long run, the risk of not seeing this thing through is greater than any inconvenience we might experience otherwise. We're already seeing echoes of the conflict reverberate all over the world. From Yemen to Palestine to, now Venezuela‽ people are starting to challenge the world order and if we don't stand our ground here, in our back yard, what chance do we have in the more remote parts of the world? What chance do we have to rally others around us if we're not willing to defend them?
Ukraine's victory is in our interest. It's in the interest of democracy and the rules-based world order we've so carefully constructed after the end of the second world war.
What is the West? The signatories of the Budapest Memorandum: USA, UK, and France?
Whatever it is, it seems that I, a Finn, am not a part of it.
What would be the counterpart of the "Kremlin not think Ukraina is not real"? Would it be like that of the rights denied for african-Americans or the jews in Europe?
Probably the British treatment of Ireland … obviously not identical.
@@rjScubaSki naah.
@@nataliiateteruk585 er….
Why do you think this is? Why do Western leaders, surrounded by experts and seeing what everyone else is seeing seem to either not realize Putin's aims or even thinking of appeasement?
Unlike the USSR, nowadays there are many western corporations still in Russia. Most did not leave. Especially the food and drink sector e.g,. Unilever,. also Caterpillar which makes excavators and bulldozers. These are powerful lobbies.
Hi Vlad, how about an alternative question, is Russia committed to a full victory in Ukraine?
Important to emphasise the degree to which Russia is at war with the West - Ukraine is a front in that war.
I hate to say it, but the recent experts our national news interviewed for the war are implying encouraging such a freezing as well, akin lines like 'In reality you can't get all you want' for example. It might be to consider political hurdles for Ukraine domestically, but I do think the former's more likely.
They do seem rather quiet regarding our responsibilities for that situation though. As well as that negotiating with Putin is not a reasonable prospect for reasons this channel has been explaining.
every place on earth is west of somewhere. what difference does it make?
Some Western politicians and commentators might talk about freezing the war, but I don't see how it is remotely possible without Ukraine making the kind of concessions to Russia that Putin demanded before the start of the war. This is ultimately what Putin means by freezing the war, whatever those politicians in the West might think. Even if you take the slightly delusionary view that you could literally "freeze" the battle lines, Ukraine would require some kind of security guarantee from the West, if not NATO membership then something very similar or Russia would "unfreeze" the conflict very quickly. Neither of these outcomes would be acceptable to the other side at this present moment in time. This is an existential war, obviously for Ukraine, but also for Putin in terms his notions of Russia's origins as a country. Putin's bold statemement that Ukraine is nothing without Russia is perhaps presisely the wrong way round. In my opinion now is the time for The West to drastically step up support for Ukraine so that even if Ukraine does not regain all of its occupied territories it can at least negotiate from a position of strength.
Makes sense
Interpretation is an education problem. In fact, learning to deal with interpretation, you only get in high levels of education (Msc, PhD...).
They don't teach interpretation in highschools in your country?
Vlad, beaut as always. Question: Wouldn't all of these issues become academic if Russia was crushed economically? Shouldn't the West concentrate more on this approach?
Ideally we could do it with sanctions and economical means...but Russia has much experience from the days of the USSR...they will just make their own products...and other nations are not on our side to really execute sanctions. China and India won't cut off Russia. China is more or less our "frenemy" and I think India is a bit against us due to the British colonization...so as long as Russia has trading partners and they are big enough to make their own stuff...economical factors will not achieve the desired results. Just my humble opinion. Couldn't help but add my two cents.😀
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 I don't think the opium wars and hypocritical policies on Taiwan are good for relations with China either.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Fair point on the Opium Wars...but Taiwan wants to remain independent of China. Hong Kong also wanted to be separate from mainland China..and sadly they were absorbed into China with little notice abroad. Yeah the colonization period has many lasting consequences...I suppose since the USA was founded by Brits...even though we were a colony and separated from England, we still have much the same bloodline and ethnicity so we are always on the same page historically. We are BFF's with England . 🤣
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 All countries have a fairly strict attitude towards separatism in any form.
Isn’t what you say also applicable to Ukraine, for example? One way or another, this policy is hypocritical.
Yes, there is more to do on that front. But Russia is sufficiently interlinked across the globe for that this won't stop them.
I think that many ordinary and many powerful individuals are committed to Ukraine's victory but there are also may who are not. So it is a to and fro of public opinion and political influence.
When you (Vlad) offer an interpretation, presumably there is at least some evidence to support that interpretation. Maybe the small minority of the community were after some evidence.
I am sharing a video tomorrow about criticisms!
Ok i get the general reasoning not to freeze the conflict.. but arguing the other way not only Putins army will regroup but we in the west can do so also and then let the middle east cool down to later on concentrate our efforts on Ukraine later as middle east crisis is threatening to weaken support for Ukraine.. but really we should be concentrating with our efforts on Ukraine first, the delay in securing Ukraine is causing greater instability elsewhere..
I doubt the Gaza war at its present intensity will last for years. But will the Houthis press until they get tolls for passage?
@@timtrewyn453Yemen is a failed state run by different groups. Having been at war, with Saudi and the other Yemeni. Biden removed the houthis, from the list of terrorists. This was said, to be because of the humanitarian crisis there.
So they’re not worried about their own wellbeing.
@timtrewyn453 That's true.. unless conflict spreads in the region,like Iran gets involved.. I doubt Iran will get involved directly but there will be a lot of focus,efforts and attention on middle east to make sure it doesn't.. its still a diplomatic war, that will also take time and media oxygen even after the current fighting in Gaza dies down..
"...but we in the west can do so also..." Yeah that's a losing bet mate.
that would be the meaning of the war of attrition .. jva.. in that if the political will is there.. Uk alone has just announced new funding package..
Vlad, suppose that the US pulls out of the war, but Europe stays in. Would that make Putin re-evaluate his "this is all a CIA colour revolution we need to defend ourselves" Lyndon LaRoucheist stance and look for an offramp, or is he just going to assume that the CIA has switched from 4d chess to 10d-chess?
Would make Putin more aggressive.
As Ukrainian I love to see how thousands and thousands of westerners truly support our struggle, how people acknowledge this war is all for democracy and freedom as such, like it's way more than just about Ukraine, but at the same time zero of western countries would support an idea of their armed forces joining the war. The war for values and principles of the Free World where the only people dying for those amazing things are Ukrainians :)
Your leaders say the results of Russia's war in Ukraine will shape the future of the West for decades, but the very same countries can't event ramp up the production of artillery shells and have their legs shaking of any idea of the direct confrontation with Russia. It means your values don't mean a thing really, because you're not ready to actually act to defend those. It appears that at the end of the day Putin is right about the West. You're weak, and you will abandon your partners if someone chellange your principles as Putin did.
Sadly what you say is very true. I think our biggest mistake was at the beginning we were slow to give aid and did not give air defense. I can't help but wonder if there is a growing number of Ukrainians willing to turn to diplomacy instead of continued fighting or if the majority of Ukrainians want to continue fighting even with the unstable promises we are giving you guys. Not to mention if Trump should win (let's hope not). I totally understand the lack of trust in Russia and the anger for the horrible war crimes, but most all wars end in treaties...so the sooner the better to start talking and get a cease fire on the killing. Perhaps a demilitarized zone could be created to separate the Russian/Ukrainian border🤔
Whats your opinion to Marc Felton?
1:29 _"now _*_zalinski doesn't like to think deeply about these things_*_ so he'll say well that and this is obviously true about Putin and then this other stuff well _*_I don't get to think about it because I I get the basic picture let's just do what needs to be done um if only it were clear what needs to be done_*_ but _*_without thinking about it deeply without having a theory about exactly why Putin invaded_*_ without even being interested in one zilinsky does get that Putin won't stop unless he stopped"_
Sorry, did I just hear you say *Zelensky "Doesn't like to think deeply" about what Putin is doing, doesn't have a "theory about exactly why Putin invaded"? And you know more???*
Yep, it's in the transcript.
2:53 _"the West wants to freeze the war the West is very heavily leaning into freezing the war"_ Ah, no. Not even the majority of Republicans who are trying to destroy Biden want that. In fact the vast majority of the Republican congress members want to fund Ukraine.
4:57 _"it hasn't even begun a Civic conversation properly about what other so that's Ukrainian citizens asking themselves um what do we want to hear from our government about our future that is hopeful and reassuring um if we're not going to get our territories back in 2024"_
This is just pure Kremlin propaganda. You have no idea what is under discussion, either between Zelensky and the West, or between the Ukrainian people.
You are obviously also oblivious of what is underway.
Look at some polls before making things up.
Zelensky knows exactly what Putin's position is and exactly why he invaded. Even I know those. So does every single Ukrainian. Otherwise support for Zelensky would not be 81% (despite the best propaganda efforts to destroy it) and for the army 98%.
Look at the options Ukraine had in February 2022. Look at the options Churchill had.
You are just talking ignorant western people into what the Kremlin wants.
*_Human trafficking. By a government of millions of it's own citizens, their homes, their businesses, and their regional resources._* Too bad if their guaranteed rights are violated.
*_Landlocked economic death, flooding European markets until they are cut off there as well._*
*_The prospect of it's own citizens that it human trafficked, traumatised by being sold, brainwashed into becoming the next meat flow but better armed and with far more weaponry of every kind._*
7:03 _"the West never made a political commitment to Ukraine regaining its territories"_ - you obviously stopped listening a while ago. The rhetoric has changed. Go out into the electronic world and have a listen to what the leaders are actually saying. Not what the media is saying, that has no sources at all.
Did you just get a new paymaster?
You have lost morality, ethics and changed into a Ritter.
Unsubscribed.
yes its unlikely Ukraine will get back any significant amount of territory but its not impossible i dont think most people saw the Kharkiv gains and that it kind of just happened as the russians kept pulling back something like that could happen again if certain conditions are met and we cannot say for sure they wont be met in 2024 its doubtful but it can happen
The GDP of the richest countries in the world can´t beat the dwarf GDP of russia?
It all about the willingness of the west.
At this moment, it doesn´t look like they want Ukraine to win
@@larzkruber822 Is it all about the willingness of the west? Why didn't the US win in Vietnam then? Or the USSR in Afghanistan, if it’s just a matter of comparing economies?
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u No one can change the Afghans, we too tried and failed. My dad was in Vietnam and he said the Americans could not tell who was N. Vietnamese and who was S. Vietnamese. The Americans could easily be fooled as to who was their ally or enemy. They also did not understand the language...and it was all jungle. So perhaps the terrain helped the Vietnamese kick us out and likewise the terrain in Afghanistan is too difficult for foreigners. Also in Vietnam, many American men were drafted so their heart was not in it...whereas the N. Vietnamese were perhaps more dedicated to their cause.
If Americans were sent to Ukraine I think we would have the same problem and not be able to distinguish Russians from Ukrainians...I can tell by names who is who....but too difficult to know who is Russian or Ukrainian by only seeing them.
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 I don't think you can tell the difference by their names either. That is why, especially at the beginning of the conflict, the troops were marked in different colors, Ukraine with green, blue and yellow. Russia white and red. I’m just saying that not everything depends on the simple desire of the West; the more effort is invested in Ukraine, the higher the chance that other corners of the earth will get out of control.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Names ending in -ova or -nova seem Ukrainian and and names ending in -ev and -vich seem more Russian...but that's just a general idea I kind of figured.
True and sadly lots of Americans either don't follow the war, don't care or don't want to share money. So only some of us are really following the developments and more concerned about the outcome. Lots of jokes online that Zelensky is buying a yacht with the money or jewelry for his wife with the money...I have seen on American news sites.
The economic concept of lost opportunity costs, being applied to a moral outcome. Practical. Thought provoking.
If global conflict is escalating, is it better to do it quickly or slowly? The first game theorists said fast, as the first one to make the strongest move possible is in the better position. The alternate view is that the more speed bumps there are along the way, the more chances there are for peace and cooperation to unexpectedly break out.
Vlad reminds me of Lady Ottoline Morrell's remark about Henry James: "He chewed more than he bit off".
Vlad, is there a reason you stopped talking about war in Israel? You’ve made a few videos about it when the war began but since then you said pretty much nothin. It's not that you have to, you don’t but at this point it looks like you are deliberately ignoring it considering just how much happens around this conflict - South Africa in IJC, UK and US striking Huthis and so on.
😂😂😂😂
I kindof want to be Estonia, not the Baltics all the time. Not that i have anything against Latvians or Lithuanians, i don't. I just want to be Estonia.
Isn't Estonia more like Finland? I read that somewhere....
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 we're like Finland but we're also like Latvians. It's not about that. We're Estonians. Because of the soviet ocupation we're always the Baltics for the outside. witch is superficial but annoying.
@@kairoosaar5530 Very understandable...yeah that would be really annoying...since you are three distinct countries...it would be like if we here were just all called North America instead of Canada, USA and Mexico...because yeah we are very proud of our uniqueness as Americans. That's how they taught me in school Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia...and mentally they all kind of group together in my thought process....but I do very much respect the distinction. 👍
Yo Vlad! Sup? :)
I also disagree with you for the first time since I listen to you. What happened to you ?Did you fell for some propaganda call ?I' m wondering .Please use words of truth,not defeat.because that's what you talk about ;"you will drown in the river" It is a war battleground.Say the WORDS
Video later today on some of this. My position has not changed and neither has my analysis of the dynamic. Although weaker western support is a new trend.
Harsh
The world is fulla swimmerz trying.
The River Don’t Care!
The River is fulla swimmerz dying.
The River Don’t Care!
🙏🇺🇦 🚜🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻
According to liberals nowadays all fact is interpretation. Since most don't recognize ultimate truth and think that truth is what is believed. It's not like anyone is being original in this regard. So when a liberal of almost any sort says "show me fact and i'll consider it" I know it is usually a pretense of objectivity. btw objectivity itself in the liberal idea of "truth" is a non sequiter because objectivity implies a deeper truth than either that which is perceived or believed. if it were anyone but Vlad, i would simply call bullshit instead of presenting my case for doubt.
Unfortunately, i have no phone and so no phone number, hence telegram is not an option for me at this time.
Wow already abandoning ukraine
Here a fact Ukraine already lost this war the what to send women to the frontlines like Germany in 1945 this why Ukraine is losing they ar desperate the end is here for Ukraine
Here is another fact. Russia claims to have the second most powerful army in the world, yet its industrial base is so corrupt and inefficient it has to beg a tin pot little dictatorship like North Korea to supply it with ammunition.
I was just listening to Rachmaninov and talking with my brother about how painfully awesome Russian composers are. Do you discuss this somewhere? What about the dying art of writing music on paper? I still do sometimes wake up in the middle of the night and scribble a few notes down. And I am certain this art is dying with us. Help.
I optimistically disagree! The tradition is alive, but the difference is that it breaks into the consciousness of most people less than other kinds of art, such as painting. I will be talking about this more on the new classical music channel in 2024. No videos there yet, but the channel is up.
Meanwhile, US citizen Gonzalo Lira apparently died in a Ukrainian prison.
Covid, he refused to get vaxed.
Do you seriously think if there had been an equivilant to Gonzalo Lira in Britain during WWII when the Nazis were bombing London every night he would be walikng about free? Only someone like Elon Musk or Tucker Calton could come up with such unrealistic idea - wait a moment they have.