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"protect us from anti-democratic politicians", and who decides who are anti-democratic?....... the left. No thanks, don't protect me from freedom by means of the authoritarianism you claim to fight against.
@@sullathehutt7720 There is only one reason why you would feel the need to attack others for their sexuality: seems you are unsure about yours. Unless you have some serious issues with whom you would like to bed ( maybe you are not getting any?) there is no reason you would care about whom other citizens want to bed. Proud of all our citizens in democracy!
We have to get away from the "Either it's perfect or it's garbage" mindset. Neither perfection nor garbage are real. We have to work with what we've got.
Sure, everything is only ever "refactoring" as software engineers know. However, we should rely on "first principles" and not on hallucinated concepts or beliefs for our decision making.
Well, it's never gonna be perfect or garbage. But NATO can't physically supply Ukraine enough weapons to outgun Russia. Also some western leaders will always be against helping random American proxies. Some western leaders will also want to trade with Russia again as soon as possible to boost both of their economies
Looking forward to that ! On a serious note regarding your discussion it is perhaps as simple as the West not truly understanding the reality of a future following a defeat of Ukraine and how that will directly affect our existence in Europe. I believe many of us feel distanced and protected from a dictator like Putin regardless of his possible destruction of Ukraine and of democracy. Many people do not believe that his expansionist ambitions will extend to more territory than Ukraine...and the people who really have the power have only one question which is 'What's in it for us ?' There is also the distraction of Gaza...if I could wave a magic wand I would stop ALL funds to Israel, and would channel much more financial support to Ukraine. It is an accepted fact that we are not funding Ukraine to win but are possibly giving only enough support to ensure a delayed defeat. One might say therefore that we in the West and the USA are complicit in ensuring the success of Israel and Russia. It is profoundly shameful. @@VladVexlerChat
Nice one! I do feel a big issue in the west is very dualistic thinking, where any issue that a "left" administration supports automatically becomes bad for the "right", and vice-versa. So instead of having the power of a democracy on certain issue like a X vector, we have it more like x/2 - x/2 =0, where two opposite vectors negate each other.
So many people are overloaded with information, and fun videos and games, that political stance is arrived at quickly, like going to the bathroom. As a result, political thought for most is a word for brown stuff.
It's hard to come together to support a cause when the other side have systematically been abused for nearly a decade for not agreeing with everything the other side claims
Indeed, it is a feature, not a bug. In a true two party system it is hard to significantly pull in either direction. It helps regulate extremes in governorship. Unfortunately democracies require a public consensus to operate effectively. That consensus usually takes something immenent and dire.
It's absolutely a lack of leadership. We've had complete deficient communication from the administration on our goals, how we plan to achieve them, and updates on the progress of said plan. We also have had no clear presentation of why those goals serve our national interests. I am probably on the hawkish end of support for Ukraine, so I will think most action is insufficient, but the leadership shown by the administration thus far has been anemic at best and probably closer to apathetic.
Biden blurts out what he blurts out. Then his team members "walk back" select utterances. He blurted out "no boots on the ground" in Afghanistan, then in Ukraine. He has a thing about boots. Wants people to think he's smart (and nice) but was passed over for Hillary in 2016. And now the DNC are backing him and Kamala. Were they bribed by Trump?
I hate the only options we have is between vaguely supporting Ukraine and wanting to leave them to their fate. Where is our generation's Ronald Ragan or someone who will unleash the arsenal of Democracy?
We've been getting more of that from Nikki Haley than we've been getting from the current administration. And I say this as a lifelong committed Democrat. I agree that there has been a near complete absence of leadership on this from Biden, and for me, it's been absolutely agonizing to watch, especially with the knowledge that it will likely get much, much worse.
Weak leadership would be there as one of my bets, also. However, I think another main issue here is radical dysfunction of democratic processes. This covers many things, such as representation, political accountability (or lack thereof), and at the core of it, lack of a common shared ideal of what is fair and what is not based on a social contract that the citizenry, not the elites, subscribe to. In other words, the beneficiaries of the western democracies see no problems with the current social order while there is growing discontent among the western public and there is a tendency to marginalize such discontent. Dropping rates of electoral participation are a sign of this.
Biden hasn't been perfect, but remember that people were expecting worse, both from the US and Europe. That's how bad the West's position on Ukraine was before 2022. Nobody in the West wanted to deal with Ukraine and confront Russia, everyone was celebrating the supposed end of major land wars on the European continent, and European countries were cutting military budgets and industry like if there was nothing to worry about. Vlad's theory has many problems, one of which is just that you don't need high social trust to produce ammunition. Russia doesn't have great social trust. The problem is that Western Europe has destroyed its military-industrial base for decades, and only now are factories starting to be built or expanded, but it takes years for these things to happen. The most serious strategic error was the complacency of thinking that Europe did not need to have a military anymore after the collapse of the USSR, or thinking that the USA could do everything. Hopefully now Europe understands that they need their own military power.
Thank you, Vlad. I’m 82, live in California, and I’ve been steadily supporting Ukraine and Ukrainian volunteers with cash donations, daily prayers, and letters to President Biden, my Senators and my Representative, and phone messages to Speaker Mike Johnson. Last night I went to bed crying, because my efforts DO feel like dropping bits of water into a bucket with holes. I try to fabricate hope, but I’m so angry with the Republicans, and am embarrassed about the U.S. lack of a spine. I don’t want “partial success.” I grew up respecting our democracy and have believed it will come back and be OK. Now, for the first time in my life, I do feel scared. And I guess I’ve not accepted the possibility that Trump could win. Horrors!! Thanks for your sobering assessment. What more can I do?
As a Ukrainian I am thankful to you and other Americans who stand by Ukraine's side because this is the right thing to do to support a country fighting off an agression. If I understand correctly Vlad's point of view about the democracy, you do exactly what's needs to be done - engage in citizen politics. You should do that regardless of who is the president or senator or representative
Perhaps you need to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time reaching out to the those who oppose Ukraine funding. Biden and his admin ignore such talk because they know they don't have the votes to get it through congress. Republican congressmen ignore it because they don't have the support of their base to allow them to vote for it. Democrat supporters such as yourselves need to reach out to Republican voters, admit that you know that the media and politicians on your side lied for 4 years about Trump-Russia collusion to hamstring his agenda, but plead with them that despite that, Russia actually does pose a threat to the West, and needs to be stopped before they invade more countries. Unfortunately, that will require a level of empathy for Trump voters that most Biden voters no longer possess after years of conditioning and lies by the media. That is not to say that you have to agree with Trump's agenda or like him as a person, but you guys have a lot of admitting to Trump supporters that you know a lot of what was said about him were lies before Trump voters will be willing to listen to anything you have to say again. They have to feel that the truth matters to you before they're willing to consider that you might have some truths to share with them that they don't already have.
@@imipak23 Thing is, we have an interest of conflict. In the past decades, governments in Europe have been a menace to their own population. You see this in Germany and England for example. So do we want leaders? No, we don't. The best course of action has been to vote for the most inept politicians and coalitions of parties as this greatly limits the damage they can cause to the population. But in regards to Ukraine, we want competent political leaders that do what is necessary. Naturally, we can't have it both ways.
@@svr5423 The truth is, democracies do not usually prefer great leaders, but have always been attracted to politicians who stay out of their way, and muddle along. It is only in times of crises, that democracies are attracted to leaders who will rally them. As soon as the crisis is over, people prefer to elect those who are keyed into their comfort zones.
I'd say two reasons. 1. The west remembers going into Afghanistan and Iraq. They gave money to the governments. It wss then later foind thata majority of ot ended up in corruption. 2. People are afraid Russia will use nuclear weapons if we give too much. I say help Ukraine with everything it needs.
I don't think there is any comparison with the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, those wars were highly controversial and debatable conflicts done in the name of bringing democracy to some countries populated by people that are openly hostile to western values and virtues. In comparison the war in Ukraine is an existential threat, a medieval style land grab and forceful enslavement of sovereign democratic nation, a population that aspires for the western values and liberties. As for corruption there will always be corruption, you can be sure there was corruption in USA and UK even during WW2.
I think this fear of Russia using nuclear weapons is mostly manufactured by Russia. Aiding Ukraine does not directly threaten Russia's power structure, while our response to a nuclear attack definitely would threaten their power structure.
@@BaddeJimme you think the regime could survive being kicked back to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders? I don't know if it could, but I agree Putin thinks not.
@@imipak23 I think it is at least possible for Putin to be expelled from Ukraine without him losing power, while an exchange of nukes would guarantee an end to Putin's regime.
Totally agree - democracy is in crisis, I brought my children up to know that democracy is not a ‘given’ and that every generation will have to fight for it: I think history is poorly understood and ( I am based in the U.K.) many people do not even know who their MP is and how our democracy works. We need to teach young people how it works, what the alternatives are, why we need to protect democracy. How important voting is etc, it’s hard to protect something if you don’t know how it works. Thank you Vlad for what you are doing - I hope you are keeping well.
Many entering the U.S. at the moment weren't brought up that way. Not sure if the immigrants in the UK could care any less who is their MP. Those in America have high expectations (Dickens reference) of what their new country will do for them, not what they can do for their new country (JFK reference).
My MP is Penny Mordaunt…😐 Before that it was Mark Harper. When I wrote to him about an issue that was causing safety concerns on our roads, he gave me a full and detailed explanation on what was the reason, what was intended to be done and took TIME to talk to me. The action alone made me feel the authority was concerned and not dismissive of my voice. I may not have been totally happy with the answer, but he registered my concerns as my representative and I appreciated that.
This explanation just feels right. I sometimes can't shake the idea that what we experience might feel similar to what people in the 1930s might have felt when democracies were struggling, the international order was crumbling and autocratic regimes were on the rise. Even during the rise of Hitler many had this "It probably won't get too bad" attitude. The missing democratic capacity in France, the UK led to Munich 1938 and Appeasement in my view. People only finally were ready to face facts when there was no escaping it no more and it was obvious war was coming. Let's hope we wake up earlier.
If Trump wins, that is the fastest way to end the war. Why? Because Europe will realize it's on its own, panic at first, but then remember it has had 30+ years of NATO cooperation to prepare for this, and then start acting like it. But this is only going to happen that fast once they realize they can't just wait for the US to foot the bill.
I am a sailor. For peaceful sleep i do a lot of inspection on my boat to prevent leaking holes and i repair before the problem is to big. Best regards to you Vlad from Caribbean
Thanks for this! It seems intuitively true to me. It's helpful to understand the timidity with which 'the West' has acted towards Ukraine. Anything that lowers my stress level helps me to work more effectively.
@@AstroGremlinAmerican I know I can work well under stress, but I find Im much more cool and productive about it when I understand the constraints and environment im working with. Thats why I like videos like Vlads, they allow me to grow understanding, which makes me more confident and calm.
Center right? That was a democrat in 2000. First, we need to help the world's poor by letting them come live with us. It will make them magically different.
As a lefty, I respect anyone (left or right) who values the most important method of governing, democracy. I'm from Australia, we had the Teal wave, a bunch of moderates who sent the conservative party a message, which they ended up completely ignoring with Dutton.
@@edgarwalk5637 "Democracy" is becoming a hard sell to many Trump supporters when every time the Democrat officials and pundits open their mouths to say "our Democracy" they actually mean "our political, media, and cultural hegemony", and when they act blatantly anti-democratically so often, such as when they refused to give a single penny for US border security once Trump lost the house, and how they're trying to throw him and all his prominent supporters into either prison or bankruptcy due to legal fees and remove him from the ballot.
Agree. We used to have a common basis of facts and culture, and I'm not sure how to get back to that, and I'm not sure democracy can function without it. (I'm a center-left American).
The problem is. You don’t need to be an expert, to know this is the most positive EV move supporting Ukraine. Like any basic common sense of intuition, game theory, geopolitics or logic should suffice. To anyone not willing to support ukraine, i would ask them the question when should we intervene? Baltics? Europe proper? Every nation on it’s own? It is the absence of any foresight that leads us to this form of ‘understanding’, but that is i suppose more to do with human behaviour. At least some people would rather put their hands on their faces to get ‘rid’ of danger. If you don’t engage in war, war engages in you. You can’t decide not to. Maybe we got complacent. Maybe this truly is the ultimate destiny of humanity. There is some form of acceptance in understanding this. Too much complacency needs to get punished, so people learn. If people look away, they won’t look away in 10 years. By then, i’ll be on copacabana beach sipping my coconut. If there are trenches over at the Netherlands, ill be the last to occupy them, because we should have never got it that far. If we go de facto ‘all nations on their own’ i go take that game a little bit further. Everyone on their own. I care as much about the dutch as i do about Ukrainians. That also means, the game is being written in 2024 on multiple levels. I am reading the game. I am understanding the game. I will act on the rules accordinyly.
The average Trump supporter does not support Ukraine because the support America First, Ukraine about 50th, and sadly they're right to do so. Ukraine is a Europe problem, and Europe really needs to grow a pair of balls and give Ukraine the backing it needs to win. Europe has all the money and tech and manufacturing it needs to do it, it just wants US to pay the shot, and if Trump gets in, they'll admit that's not going to happen and prove to us all that they can infact do it themselves after all. And if they can't, what the hell was 30+ years of NATO funding for in the first place?
"Ukraine can live without russia. russia cannot live without Ukraine. " (quoting Anna from Ukraine) Regarding russia, the West must learn what Ukraine already knows.
in my opinion, we should add into this analysis that our society became much more sectarian in terms of ideologies and political discourse. It became impossible to "discuss" with a political opponent. All of the parties are acting in maximalist aims, instead of going for the middle ground. A democracy is functioning when the vast majority of the population is uneasy about the outcome of a policy but accept it as the negotiated middle ground. These days, the political discourse is made to "crush" the opponent and get on top of the heap, out of the debate. (See the discussions around brexit and the budget discussions in the USA as two examples.)
There needs to be a level of respect for the positions of the other side in order for their to be dialogue. There's no respect coming when one side bullies the other so hard and for so long that they didn't even realize they were doing it anymore, then was caught totally surprised when a bunch of right-wing candidates that hit back hard started getting elected, followed by trying to escalate the bullying but it not working.
@@theredscourge I would not call it bullying by a single side. I do not remember for example any successive Democrat presidents in the USA. Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr, Obama, Trump, Biden. If there was bullying, we would have seen more Democrats than Republicans. No, I think it is the bias that is fed by the social media that pushes the extreme ends of the spectrum more to the front, as the algorithm favours them over moderate talks. At the end this creates the environment where you see only the purified extremism like that we saw in 30 years war that cost nearly the whole European population. What catholic and protestants were saying were 99,9% same but they killed each other for the 0,1% of the difference.
In the US aid to Ukraine is held up by 7 Republicans . Out of a total 535 members of Congress. Meanwhile, 2/3 of the population favors continued assistance. So much for representative government.
@@stephenhill545nope, the speaker in the house and the senate majority leader set the agenda. It’s literally impossible to get a vote unless the leadership allows it. Basically 1 person in the entire country is holding this hostage because 2-3 other people might with draw support from him causing him to lose the speakership.
It's true, the situation we are in with democracy and not taking decisions to fully support Ukraine and the bigger chance Trump will be the next president of the US scares the hell out of me.I am not a religious person but this time I often think'may god help us'. I try to be optimistic but that's hard these days. Thanks Vlad for your thoughts and everything you do, with love from The Netherlands ❤
Don't be afraid that Trump will win, accept that it's already a certainty, and think about what you can do to advance your goals THAT WILL WORK (for example not more of the same tactic that the left used of just bullying and lying to everyone on the right)
The democracy's Achile's heel is the legitimacy of the political class and the sanctity of the judicial rulings in the highest court. People are not going to civil war anymore when they think they are in control of their country by voting and sometimes by peaceful protests. But this system favours the status quo, and it even puts the mind of the citizen in a box.
And the political/economic class manage the lazy media with simple-minded distractions and easy distinctions, like a Punch and Judy show. Biden's latest speech was platitudinous, as though he has a sole claim to democracy. In fairness, Biden doesn't write his speeches and can barely read them.
True, but no one truly wants a civil war. They bark loud, but what % of the population will actually pick up a gun and lay down their life for a policy they disagree with? Worst case scenario is the population becomes apathetic and controlled, as russia does it. The votes still matter, and weathering 4 years of a leader you don't like seems like the logical outcome.
As soon as you used the wrongly, I knew you weren't an english speaker, butvfrom a country which uses the articles differently. Just be open about where you are from instead if pretending to be somebody from a nation you don't come from.
I only feel what touches me. All else is illusion. This attitude is as endemic 'in the West', as it is in 'the East'. Until it appears on your doorstep. Then you are trapped.
It seems like your view of the current state of our democracies is based on the state in a few, mainly English speaking, countries - which might be fair if your main viewerbase is from these countries. However, sometimes you come across as if all democracies around the world are failing / declining, which I don't think is the case ... at least not beyond "normal" cycles.
Your "a ship with a couple of holes in the middle of the sea during a storm" analogy made me think of a film I watched last year, titled "Nowhere". It is a Spanish film, and in Spanish (but available on a well known streaming site with English subtitles), and it is not a ship/boat, but a shipping container which fell from a ship that she is stuck inside, but in it you can see the heroine of the film literally do just that...deal with being stuck in the middle of the sea in a "boat" filling with water from the holes in it. Though in her case it was already a "sinking ship at sea", not just a "ship with a few holes in it that can be fixed before it becomes a sinking ship". She makes her choice after accepting her reality (and yes, its a thriller, so not everything follows logic & everything is exaggerated to make it more thrilling, but that is the luxury of fiction), and tries to get some of the water entering exit her "boat", not just "accept things as they are without any (counter) action from her" I also like the quote from Miep Gies, one of the people who helped hide Anne Frank)s family): "“But even an ordinary secretary or a housewife or a teenager can, within their own small ways, turn on a small light in a dark room.” Just replace "ordinary secretary" (true in her case) with "ordinary civilian" to be less precise. There was a wonderful TV series about her & the Frank family released last year which got its title from this very saying/quote by her. A small light. (cause a hundred of "small lights" make up already a "big fire". A million of small donations create lots of funds. Many small deeds by "single, small people" can/will lead to "big, important things". ON their own every single persons small deed may mean not that much in the grand scheme of things, but all put together...that is another story already. And just cause we/some might not see the big picture & how their small deed can help, does not mean "small deeds" are "pointless".
It's almost absurd how democracies fuel their inability to act by not being able to act. It feels like the less they do of the right thing the more they're constrained in their next action. And the cycle continues until no action is performed at all, and trust disappears completely. Update: uh, a similar but more elaborate point is made at the end of the video; I should've finished the video before typing...
Democracies are run by people who want people to like them. And people trust their feelings and biases. Almost every elected in California has an Hispanic last name.
Because NATO physically can't outproduce Russia because western military industry is in private hands. Their leaders won't take military industry in government's hands and won't rewrite constitution to help some random corrupt American proxy
When even an old well-educated man with PhD, experienced psychoanalyst, was recruited by a KGB operative when he was a university student in the West, became a communist, visited Moscow a number of times, and have been spreading hateful Putin's propaganda against Ukraine. And there's plenty of such communists in the West, not to mention Russian speaking immigrants who watched Russia TV and was brainwashed by the propaganda. Not to forget powerful and influential people corrupted by Putin. Money talks....
So the message of the video is not to lose hope, I certainly haven’t lost hope - that would be wildly out of character. But, democracy is in decline. Though again- decline is not collapse.
@TheJeanette53 We’re already contributing with funds so Ukraine can pay their troops, civil servants, etc. as well as humanitarian aid. But we could do plenty more; expell Russians from the West, ban all import of Russian goods, ban investment in Russia, ban every export to Russia, close borders and intensify NATO drills and air activity to further stretch Russian resources.
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What I genuinely think is happening is two things, maybe three. Firstly with inflation and increase in the cost of living in many Western countries I think governments to be able to help Ukraine more, in the sense of supplying them with enough weapons and more importantly ammunition, would require spending at a time when there are increasing domestic concerns, which means that there are priorities elsewhere, especially after the pandemic which has also added spending that needs paying back. In addition to this at the start of the war countries like the US, UK, and other NATO members were happy to give weapons to Ukraine that were sitting idle and having to be replaced soon anyway, whereas to don't them now production needs to be increased, which needed to be done a year ago, but requires money, and this money needs to come from somewhere. Secondly, there is the fact that in the US, and in the UK we are getting to the end of election cycles and so new elections are coming up. There are those on the right who say why are we doing all this? Does this really affect us? Is this our flight? And those in the right always like to use the rhetoric that couldn't this money be better spent here in our own country, and I just don't think it has been explained well enough that firstly the money allocated for Ukraine is either gifting or stockpiles of weapons that will expire in the not to distant future and it's really mostly paying American companies to produce new, updated weapons for the US military to replace them. Thirdly, and I know you might not agree with me on this one, but as far as the EU is concerned I think Hungary, and its pro Putin regime, can and will slow down and block things happening quickly in terms of getting budgets for supplying what has been promised by politicians approved and actually put into action. There are others in the EU (and UK) that I think also, despite not coming out in public and saying it, either aren't wanting Ukraine to regain its lost territory, or are too incompetent to actually put in place the measures needed to make this happen. There was always going to be a shortage of ammunition production in the EU and thus available to supply to Ukraine without wheels being taken this time last year's, maybe earlier, this I think was pointed out by Perun's channel not that long into the war and we far as I know nothing has really been done to address this. I do honestly think though that the biggest issue is the US, and more significant the Republican Party and Trump. You could, and many do say that Europe should be able to cope without the US, and I don't disagree this position, but the US is still the world's superpower with the most advanced military on the planet and I think nothing at NATO really gets done without it's say so. The EU is a trade area, it doesn't have one military, it was never, despite many of its opponents claiming it is, a centralised political entity and so for Europe think of it instead of having one battle between supporters of Ukraine and those who think what we're doing is either enough or to much, but 27+ battles, each in their own parliament, and with just one or two not be unified in backing Ukraine it's just not easy, and that's not to mention long term Russian influence in some countries some that were vassell states to the Soviet Union in the time of the Cold War, which although changed when these countries embraced democracy some of that influence is still there, and probably manifests itself more during harder times which we're in now.
How are you have though, I believe it's a product of the financial crash in 2008 and basically a lost decade of growth after that, during which people haven't seen their lives get better, many people have gotten poorer whilst those at the top are getting richer. This sets up the perfect breeding ground for bad actors to stir up nationalistic ferver to blame all these immigrants for any this has happened rather than the failure of their own policies, whilst enriching themselves and their friends at the same time. When this happens it sets the scene the politics we're seeing through the western world and that has been going on for some time now. How are "fix" this I don't know, but what I do know is that turning our backs on Ukraine won't make the problem of Putin to away, it won't make the world a safer place, and with an this it won't make our lives more prosperous, or fix the problems we have in all our countries. What really is needed is leadership and I don't know where this is coming from now, or anytime in the near future.
Ehhh No. You are right of course; but this isn't the main reason we are giving so few weapons that we know actually work well and could be decisive in this kind of conflict. The switchblade drones were a faillure. Himars was a great success ... But there are close to a thousand m270's (the tracked variant) and more then 500 m142 (the wheeled variant) built. The USA could have sent a hundred and nobody would notice. There were 6 ... If these were delivered by the dozen; with modern ammunition and ATACMS; Russia would have been driven back fairly quickly. The Patriot system; same thing ... There are hundreds of these systems currently NOT in use. Can you imagine if Ukraine could deploy a redundant net of air defenses including over the front line ? Ukraine would quickly achieve air superiority and Russia would be driven back. The West isn't helping Ukraïne win, because there are experts & politicians afraid of the nuclear danger and chaos of a sovjet-style collapse. This is the primairy reason we're dosing our weapon deliveries as to keep the balance; and we're hoping that Putin will see reason and stop. And this bugs me, as Putin won't stop; and fear of nukes isn't helping anyone making the right decisions. And where are the UN blue helmets ? We're simply afraid of russia; and afraid of what russia might do when cornered.
I disagree. The assumption here is democracies have control. The fact is they lost it to the corporations years ago. It isn't democratic capacity that matters, but market capacity.
Who are the experts? What qualifications do these experts have? Who is finding the experts? The least qualified people to make decisions about war and strategy are politicians? What qualifications does a politician have? The democratic system gives a leader. Very rarely are they a good leader My examples are is is Biden really really the best person of the whole population of the USA can find as its leader. What a disgraceful system if that’s the best they can find. The problem is all the good qualified people don’t go into politics. What we are left with is to pick from a very ordinary bunch. Look at Boris Johnson or Schulz - what a pathetic grouping of very ordinary people
US Leadership did not come to the American People to explain the support and consequences. Also, The current US administration has created an intense lack of security and instability of the US Southern border. Add to this economic uncertainty and huge price increases leading to economic pain in food and fuel to the every day US Citizens.......Uncertainty, insecurity, instability...leads to less will to keep sending funds and resources abroad.
In my opinion people are looking at this from the wrong angle. At the same time they do not listen when officials let the truth slip. Start of the war Lloyd Austin (United States secretary of defense" stated that we would provide what Ukraine needs to weaken Russia to the point that it cannot attack its neighbor's again. He didn't say win and the press got mad. Winning was not the plan. Mid 2022 a former NATO commander stated, We are watching a smaller Soviet military fighting a larger Soviet military. Before the failed counteroffensive NATO Command stated that Ukraine had what it needed for the counteroffensive. Press asked former UK military commander why the offensive failed and he replied, We cannot expect them to fight like professional NATO troops. But the west does not want Ukraine. The west simply doesn't want Russia to have it, and the security lie has been exposed. Since the start of the cold war the military industrial complex has sold us the story that we have to prepare for war with the mighty USSR, then it collapsed. So they said it was Russia that is the real threat, spend billions more. Then we discover that Russia looks good on paper but that is it. Russia is a paper tiger that is left out in the rain. It is only a threat when it comes to nukes. Democracy is not failing us. It is working as it should and debate is taking place. Some still believe that Russia is a threat. Others point out that Russia cannot beat Ukraine and an attack on NATO would be suicide. Ukraine has no professional soldiers and it is a waste to send more money and gain nothing. So the debate continues. Meantime the military industrial complex knows the paper tiger is out of the bag and they need another super villain and that is China.
The problem with experts is that the very most of them follow an own business model. And there are others with a 180 degree different ideas. I am a educated ignorant ( similar to many experts ). I think the Western democracies are in decline. The autocrats all over the world are rising. The weapons of the autocrats are getting more powerful. Not much hope.
Pre-WWII, I can't think of a single democracy or republic, all the way back to Rome, that managed to restore its form of government after a fall to rule by an emperor or fascist leader. In all cases that I am aware of it took the total military defeat and occupation by an outside power to pry the fascists off of their government. I don't think the US can count on any outside power coming to save us from ourselves.
Personally I think that Ukraine lost. Sure the war is still ongoing but Ukraine's absolutely huge, well trained, well armed, battle hardened, extremely motivated armed forces as they stood in Feb 2022 was destroyed. The inrush of keen volunteers after the invasion was so great that Ukraine was in the envious position of being able to choose the best volunteers. We (the west) built and payed for Ukraine's Feb 2022 army. We then trained their next wave, or next army which was the original offensive. Which was successful. And then we trained the next army which pathetically failed in the Counter Offensive. Zaluzhnyi wrote a very strange article about two months back where he stated that inorder for Ukraine to win they needed a technological advantage over Russia akin to China having invented gun powder before it's adversaries. Obviously that's not going to happen. A few weeks back he requested 20,000 fresh troops to be delivered to him each and every month from then on. There are no more volunteers. Two weeks ago on a Ukrainian TV show Budanov said that Ukraine now relies totally on conscripted soldiers. He said these soldiers were absolutely unmotivated and did not want to fight. He described these men as being "useless" on the battlefield. That's the word he used. Useless. Do it's done. We failed in out attempts to geopolitically isolate Russia. In fact Russia doing what we can't even imagine doing geopolitically. We failed to destroy Russia's economy by using sanctions and theft. And we failed on the battlefield. It's not our choice whether to win or lose. We've been outplayed by an adversary we underestimated. You used a ship on the ocean as a metaphor, Vlad. Our ship that's out there bobbing around on the wild ocean is piloted by Joe Biden. God save us.
What happened in 2022 was the super-mobilization of the ideological, politically active part of society, 90% understand that an endless war with Russia is madness and a road to nowhere.
I Disagree, while retaking their full territory may not be on the table, they are still able to mount successfully defenses. Wars aren't winner take all, if you make victory cost too much in lives, or manpower, or public outcry then you can get some of your goals as the loser. In this regard Ukraine has the ability to ensure it's independence and get itself free from Russian influence. Russia's economy while not likely to fall overnight or fall at all they've taken massive damage. Europe was a major importer of their fuel and although they tried to switch to India sanctions and the middle east undercutting their prices are cutting them out of the market. They've been forced to announce production cuts for oil. Victory is still within reach if we make the effort to grab it.
Our lack of ability to help Ukraine, in a way that would force Russia to withdraw from Ukranian territory is very frustrating. Frightening is were we are are headed if our lack of ability to work in our own self interes isn't stopped. Please help me understand how to help ourselves collectively before we self implode.and we really are in he'll. Ukraine ifailure s a five star red alert about ourselves
For Russia, Ukraine is a territory where 15 million Russians live, Russia is fighting for its people, no one can clearly say what the United States is fighting for in Ukraine, this is the reason for the inability to help Ukraine.
I attribute it primarily moral weakness and cowardice. Simple really. Additional factors are the moral confusion that arises from woke liberalism and a lack of national pride.
Hey i wonder, so you speak of reduced democratic capacity due to decline... and yet how does it work? Let's say US has 3 factions, Democrats (support Ukraine), Republicans of more traditional kind (support Ukraine) and Trump wing (supports Putin). About right? There's obviously also the Tankies, but who cares. If democrats are shuffling unable to more decisively move towards supporting Ukraine, then aren't they undermining themselves? Like if you have an impression that support for Ukraine is declining in the population, doesn't it mean you specifically have to double down to create a clear differentiation vs. opponent? Because if you reduce efforts to support Ukraine, because you think Trump is winning, you think this is the way the wind is blowing, that you have to move towards your opponent to capture more potential voters, well you aren't going to capture a clearly anti-Ukraine Trump voter and make them vote Dem, just not going to happen. Let's say you have a flexible voter, who has 3 issues which are important to them, and Ukraine is one of these issues. This voter says one should support Ukraine. But otherwise this voter may have a temporary Democrat fatigue or may be more Republican aligned. And if Dems aren't willing to actually help Ukraine, he may decide that this issue is a lost cause anyway, so he might focus on his other pet issues and vote Trump. This is the sort of undermining that i'm thinking of, losing the middle by indecisiveness and not gaining people from opposing side either. Is this a thing, is it so, is there something i'm overlooking? (question to everyone, not necessarily personally to Vlad, as usual)
Wtf, why did my comment get deleted? In any case, in Finland we say "Siberia teaches." If the collective West refuses to take action now, we will have to learn later and it won't be so easy anymore.
Thank you Vlad. This post struck a chord with me. I have long thought about the growing decline of cohesion in Western societies, in my own at least. It appears to me, that without some sort of existential crisis threatening a society, there is a steady fracturing of any shared narrative. Am I wrong to think that one outcome of two world wars was a bolstering of democracies and a sort of hopeful cohesion in and of the free world? However, in my lifetime, I see that slowly dissolving into tribalism, and more recently, being supercharged by the development of the internet and it's troublesome spawn, social media.
Very interesting train of thought. Maybe some deeper truth can be found by digging into it. Looking into why democracy spread so much after WW2 can be worthwhile, and how countries unity and resolve strengthens after crisis. Another example is the rwandan massacre. It transformed into a completely different country after that nightmare, like a collective realization of what must be avoided at any cost, and what must be pursued instead. Its always been strange why such wonderful things like democracy spread after ww2 and why now in peace the wests principles and ideals are slowly decaying, when it should be growing more unified and stronger. Not that russia is faring better, when its trying to turn into soviet 2.0 in a moment of despair at it's own stagnation, decay and incompetence. No use responding to this comment, unlikely to read it, just throwing out ideas.
@@stephenhill545 well yeah, some of us from this " We " have 💩 for brains... and they like to simp for Putrid and betray democracies in their OWN ALLIANCE. & that needs to be CALLED OUT ASAP.
Thanks Vlad! There’s some great self-help in here for the individual, haha. Inaction leads to lack of ability which leads to inaction. The anxiety/depression death loop for an individual person. You can’t wish yourself out of a depression. You must address the behaviors/beliefs which sustain it. Same for a democracy I guess.
This was very helpful. It is SO illogical to give half-ass support to Ukraine that it's infuriating to watch. As a U.S. citizen, who has followed the rise of the religious right in the U.S. (& their marriage to the Republican Party), & the Democratic Party's weak, traitorous attempts to walk a theoretical "middle ground", rather than address the needs of the country, I know EXACTLY how I feel: WRATHFUL & DISGUSTED. As I look over modern history, it seems to me that we (the U.S.) have been here multiple times. The wealthy get outrageously greedy, & forget the need to "appease the masses" in order to protect their privileged positions, until the majority get desperate, angry, & LOUD ENOUGH to be heard/force change. P.S. DJT will NOT WIN, unless the (corrupt) U.S. Supreme Court feels that they are ACTUALLY untouchable (& paves the way). EVEN THEN, DJT lost in 2020 because people (especially the young) came out SPECIFICALLY to vote AGAINST him (not so much to vote for Biden). A corrupt Supreme Court ruling will galvanize the majority like nothing else. Besides, DJT could literally implode at any given moment. 🤞
So true. Democracies are weak. The non-stop, 24 hour a day news cycle and instantaneous social media barrage of commentary are wearing us down. We can't handle the information overload. There's no time to draw a breath, let alone actually reflect on anything that might result in coherent and effective policy making.
Vlad, you are the most discerning and trustworthy guide in what are, for me, otherwise alien and complex arenas. May Heaven Bless You and restore you to full health! I know it can happen! Have faith.
I worry you are off the mark here. Whilst experts in Poland / UK / Baltics / Finoscandia might pursue outright victory over Russia, the US experts see the benefit advantage in a quagmire for Russia, and the French / German / Belgian / Austrian experts classes value peace at any cost. I suspect the populace of all nations converge on opposing Russian aggression, but the state apparatus of various countries is the true site of democratic failure. Acknowledging this different locus of democratic failure is the true failure we choose to turn our backs to.
I know this was mostly repeating points VV has made many times before, but as a tight summary of where we all are, it was really excellent. In fact I'm going to listen to it again to make sure I didn't miss anything.
@@VladVexlerChat I firmly agree on the importance of repetition (I, for one, certainly benefited in this instance), and thus there's no need for the apology :)
The answer is don't look up, don't reason, just keep going. We know what's right we know who is evil. Just keep faith. Been in this sort of position which took many years every day to keep going. Once the course is set just keep going especially wh6it is totally illogical. It will be ok. ❤
Vlad, from my uninformed and non-expert perspective, I have the impression that the EU, over the long term, has developed greater capabilities in foreign and defence matters, achieving significant progress in implementation. For instance, I perceive that its response to Russia's complete invasion of Ukraine has been notably better than its reaction to the Yugoslav Wars. Would you agree?
👍 Also we care more. We think we have to do more now than we thought we had to during the Yugoslaw wars. This increased expectations also increases the feelings that it's not enough, when it ultimately doesn't lead to success (victory of Ukraine). The same reality can be interpreted in very different ways, not only the facts on the ground matter but also how we think about them. But shifting the expectations isn't pretty and easy either, because we remember our past goals with Russia's war against Ukraine, and if we back down, it feels like a loss, even though in the end we still have saved Ukraine from getting completely absorbed by Russia. I think the next step is to consolidate the pro-European political forces within Ukraine. I think after the war, no matter how it will end at the frontline, the most important thing is to prevent Ukraine from becoming a new Taiwan, or a new Hungary. It's important to look at the Ukrainian mood and prevent it from turning against the West or the EU and prevent it from siding with Russia politically after all. I see a real danger there that disillusioned Ukrainians might switch sides in a few years. Russia will definitely construct a myth that it was the West that pushed Ukraine into this war.
I think the key problems are: 1) Professional expertise in the West has been mortally wounded by its politicisation and monetisation over the past 23 years. The media also contributed this massively by following party lines without neutral questioning. The worst of this was the Iraq War and the unrealistic trauma of the Afghan intervention. It was mainly the cynicism of this use that convinced me that Putin's manoeuvres in 2021 and early 2022 would not result in an invasion. I was completely wrong and it was the 'cry wolf' experience plus my ignorance of how poorly Putin was informed and how his own motivation worked that created this issue. 2) The West has been cursed by machine politicians devoid of common sense or ideology and motivated by a cynical desire for power. As a result voters are de-motivated, because politicians have failed to address the issues that matter to them, because those politicians have only followed the concerns of the elite who finance their campaigns. In reaction we have populists like Trump who gain popularity by saying they will address those concerns. The result is a total divorce between managerial elite classes and working classes with the former imposing their will on the latter with predictable resentment. Until we find politicians who can bridge that gap with determination and eloquence, the mess will continue. The Covid crisis was an example of weak politicians using fear and fake reliance on science with suppression of opposing viewpoints (rather than taking on those arguments with logic and evidence) - this showed arrogance and laziness of huge proportions. We need honesty in the West to tell us we are at war with Putin albeit a Cold War and we need to gear our economies accordingly. At the moment Putin still sees only weakness and that is incredibly dangerous. If we have a stalemate cease-fire in Ukraine, Putin will simply re-arm and have a crack at the West in another area and this could provoke an utter disaster. Thanks to you Vlad we have intellectual tools to see this more clearly.
I am scared...I totally admit it. Globalization, the internet, growing populations and the growing divide between ultra wealth and sustainable income have made people become residents and not citizens. The demarcation between residents and citizens ( your concept which I have taken to heart) is born out of fear. This attitude kills off democracy. People just want to be "ok" and they don't care how to get there. It is a very turbulent time to come and yes, I'm very worried.
I am not sure I agree with you Vlad on democratic decline being the main driver of poor Western policy with regards to specifically Ukraine. It is definitely an important factor right now, as the full scale war is drawing to the end of its second year and it is easier for populists to sow distrust and use cheap slogans to reduce democratic capital. But at the same time at the beginning of the full scale invasion the public support was unanimous and it was easy to define a strategy with Ukrainian victory and act on it. It wasn't done because of the views of the politicians in the Western capitals, not because of lack of public trust. One might also remember 2014, when nothing was done in regards to Ukraine and Syria, when there was no real policy that resulted in disaster. Back then, public discourse wasn't as toxic. I agree that it is harder to have a proper foreign policy with democratic decline at home, but it is very possible and at the end of the day it is up to the politicians in power to try their best. The real problem, I feel like, is the lack of accountability in Western democracies. Disastrous decision making never results in any penalties for politicians and the only way to hold them accountable is through massive public outrage, which is not a mechanism that can be applied to foreign policy without very high stakes in play.
It is hard to keep up hope when you feel that democracy must win every time in order to survive whereas undemocracy only has to win once. The further the last world war recedes into the past the more that horror is forgotten, and the conviction of "never again" recedes with it. You realize that the best laws or constitution cannot protect peace and democratic order if the majority is either indifferent or works actively against it. I always thought that the simple (and wrong) solutions to complex problems is what appeals to people, but we see more and more that populist agitators offer no solutions at all and still attract a bigger and bigger following. Still, all is not lost, so let's all do what we can.
Vlad, thank you for your words🙏🏼. Today, on the third anniversary of the worst attack to the Capitol by a mob organized by the former president of my country, I’m feeling under the weather because he has not yet faced justice, but giving up is not an option, so tomorrow I will start my activism again, to help candidates that will support democracy and its institutions.
He's going to win the next election. As a European, your country is a mess, and Trump is the least of your concerns. People actively avoid America these days. It's not a go-to destination for many in Europe these days. Everywhere is riddled with crime and poverty.
As a foreigner it seems to me that your present President is a complete failure, targeting Trump does not change that but it does divert attention from your present problems.
It seems as though we shouldn't need experts to tell us that it's in US interests to support Ukraine to victory. It seems like the sort of thing that anyone should be able to see. Then there's the inevitable march of regress of our institutions, which still sounds to me like an epistemologically-equal mirror to the inevitable march of progress that a lot of people like to imagine.
Ukraine will Lose the war for simple fact that most western countries expect Ukraine to Buy / Pay for their weapon systems rather than receiving them for free. Ukraine was expecting a WW2 style Lend-Lease program of free military aid for this War of Attrition but western countries are only sending a token amount of weapons which will lead to Ukraine’s defeat in the long run.
We, "the West" will have to help one day in the future, with all our might. We're just not bright enough (yet). As usual, pain will school us. Dürrenmatt, in "Die Physiker": "A story is only thought through to its end unless it has taken its worst possible turn." Honestly, I am wondering since I was twenty why we never even discuss the question in what kind of world would we like to live provided our bellies are filled enough. That's almost 40 years ago by now. Even the arts (read: Hollywood) mostly just constructed threats to scare us, but to what goal should we save ourselves? And so, we don't. Religion told us the real show starts behind the curtain, no wonder we're done. I guess "we" should even think about stopping the last countries from using fossile fuels... by force (after we made "our" homework). Because laws of Nature constitute a dictatorship.
You are saying support for Ukraine requires support for what in the countries that 'still use fossil fuels?' Because you lost me. . . Turning support for Ukraine into an Ingsoc like totalitarian new broom to crush 'agw deniers' is to condemn the tacit support Ukraine is recieving in my opinion, and is a bit of a black ugly thing to be honest. This is happening in the USA. The Democrats are having a tantarum because the GOP expects the Democrats to submit to quid pro quo wrt their domestic policy sacred cows. The Democrats are clinging to their sacred cows. You see how supporting Ukraine is no longer the top priority of the Democrats? This reminds me of the early weeks of the Russian invasion where the war took on a terrible life of its own and metastisized every hour into something bigger and more awful by leaps and bounds.
That s an interesting philosophical proposition you put here. And I think you are right. Im glad I m a Christian (follower of Jesus) and therefore know much about what's going on behind the curtain (the spiritual world), what we do and who we are when we ourselves want to be in contro, or we think we arel. But also how it s gonna end, and not in a fatalistic way.
@@andreverwoerd1378Exceptional claims need exceptional evidence and we're waiting 2000 years now. Same with Santa. Also: Why the religion you were randomly born into? I find that unacceptable.
I m not born into my faith. I chose because I saw/see the truth in Jesus' words. You cannot make this up like you write a fairy tale. @@AndreasDelleske But you can agree to disagree. In the end we ll see who was right or not (Pascal).
@@andreverwoerd1378 Our options aren't limited to Christian God or no god. The choices are limited only by all of the available permutations of the concept of God. Pascal knew this to be the case, and made clear his wager required additional justification that the only valid God was the Christian God. What even is the point of offering up a proof for the Christian God that requires that I prove the Christian God to make it valid?
How can I say this nicely? Well, I‘m afraid we have to teach political education and critical thinking in schools again properly and effectively. I‘d also plead for teaching scientific thinking. I‘m afraid this generation will recognize danger no sooner as danger knocks personally at their door and threatens them directly and physically. Thank you Vlad for your explanation. This is the underlying root cause and the only medicine for establishing a healthy political society however to my opinion. Another point of discussion I suggest is how does an overall aging society decide? What are their priorities in life? What is the likely outcome of democratic decisions in an aging society? Special focus on the will to change and develop.
Which generation, actually? I know as a chronically online person from the opposite end of the globe, my perception might have nothing to do with reality, but from what i'm seeing the level of political awareness and thought in young millenials and zoomers from North America is sort of scary high compared to what i'd expect. Also i don't know if critical thinking is maybe a little overrated and passion and compassion a little underrated? I used to be way into "critical thinking" maybe 15-20 odd years ago. But when you have such uhhh pardon me bulwarks of Facts and Logic which obviously Don't Care About Your Feelings, maybe "critical thinking" has run its course, and feelings are exactly what you need.
@@SianaGearz i mean the coming generations that will attend schools and universities. You have to teach them how to recognize manipulation/propaganda. As you know it works mostly with half-truths and creating emotional outrage about a created meaning that is per se not true or not exact or not diversified. It works with judgement and blame based on wrong assumptions. I very much support that compassion and awareness gets more important in this world. What I am talking about however is abuse of people by creating outrage over false assumptions that were deliberately created and are far from reality. That is why it is crucial that you recognize it when someone tries to manipulate. That also means mind and emotion and knowledge in balance.
@@SianaGearz bc my answer disappeared I’ll try again 😏: the generation who has to be threatend personally and physically to believe smth AND act on it is mine (X and older). The generation that I suggest to be taught how manipulation works is the one that will be pupils/students next. I also wanted to point out, that while I support compassion very much, we have far too little in our societies (yet), I very strongly oppose abusing emotions by manipulation. There are techniques to effectively manipulate someone, like NLP (which can also be used in therapy, but id say mostly it is abused). Manipulation mostly works with halftruths concluding from these to the next halftruth (number of reps varying) and concludes with a straight out false statement/pseudo assumption, additionally worded in way that provokes upset/outrage etc. Another way we see often nowadays is accusing the opponent of more or less exactly what the manipulator him/herself does. Like RF often claims they never go after civilian targets, only Ukr does that. Or they were about to attack us, so they forced us to do a preemptive strike (attack) blabla. Or Ukr is planning to blow up Kahovka damm etc etc. Another popular technique is the slippery slope argument: e.g. if we let smth continue (like that - whatever) we’ll soon be doomed (drastic irrational consequence). Little examples Im sure you know, but unfortunately many fall into that trap again and again. And RF is a very special specialist with that 😏
@@Gazer873 I actually have for some reason done a course in hypnotherapy, got an alternative practitioner certificate :D that i'm not putting to any use whatsoever, but from my point of view and experience here, NLP is not a thing. People believe what they have chosen to believe. I can make someone raise their arm and do some gestures without them noticing that they were doing it, but it's a parlour trick, i'm not actually changing someone's mind. I can tell you a story but whether it works, depends on your willingness to go with it. I think emotionally mature people recognise emotional manipulation. Just like people mature in rhetoric recognise rhetorical manipulation of the kind you speak. I don't think one skill is complete without the other.
@@Gazer873 Apropos disappearing replies, well i have that problem as well in this thread apparently. :( Not sure whether it's going to pop back up or whether i need to reword it somehow. I can't even think what sort of filter i might have hit, i thought everything i said was perfectly inoffensive.
I would add that in America and maybe even in the West people are getting tired of all the ribbon cutting but no finished bridges. We have all these commitments and problems that are piling up on us, we hear about all the solutions to these problems but we never see it fully resolved. We never reach the “War is Over” moment. If citizens don’t get to feel the completion of the first national task (JFK saying let’s land on the moon and then we did) then why would they want to move on to another even bigger task.
The "climate" goals to be completed long after these politicians are out of office are especially irksome. "We know nuclear power is unpopular so we assume that civilization can be carbon neutral in X decades using solar panels and windmills. We hereby sign this treaty that ignores reality and makes us look good even though we are ignorant of energy engineering and even math."
@@AstroGremlinAmerican The climate goals will and can never be completed by government. That is because governments under the control of the legacy system and the climate goals are only achievable by utter disruption of the legacy system. Free enterprise working outside of the present order will achieve and far exceed all climate goals. This is actually being done as the governments fiddle their thumbs. There are good mathematical models that show that solar can and will (because it is cheaper than anything else) take over. The engineering is solid.
Personally, whilst I have travelled and worked in much of the world to paraphrase Chamberlain....quite frankly Ukraine is a country far away I know little about....but support for Ukraine is much more black and white.....Big country invades a Small country which on the balance of probabilities leans towards the 'values' of most of the member states of the EU and the small country puts up a bloody good fight....and hence since this country is not far far far far away like Bolivia or say Angola.....then assist the small country with a great deal of assistance....Realpolitik....
I feel like there is a lot of delusional thinking at play. People don't want to look at the facts of the situation and are stuck in a mindset fostered in 2001. Part of this is that america or the west is always bad in every military activity, due to lies about the iraq and afghanistan wars. We did actually find WMD's, we didn't steal oil, Bush didn't do 9/11 and so on, and terrorists and Saddam were obviously a real threat. 50 countries got involved precisely due to this. Saddam not only admitted to having WMD's but threatened to use them against his neighbors, and an entire city, Halajbah, was poison gassed, as well as the marshes were most the food of the middle east was grown was drained and poisoned by him. This is the reason for the destabilization of the middle east. Nonetheless, some it was transferred to the west or america, and this has ever since created a sense of distrust about western governments. The hard reality is the left has no-one to blame but themselves for this, willingly promoting ridiculous propaganda at the time. But the left also was unwilling to provide lethal aid to ukraine when they were first invaded under obama and biden, and Trump was the first to authorize javelines to ukraine, which he got impeached for as the left called it a "quid pro quo". The left removed McCarthy, the Republican speaker of the house from power, right as he was going to authorize aid to ukraine. Congress has approved aid that might actually change the course of the war. Biden has single handedly banned HIMARS, long range weapons, and numerous other forms of aid to Ukraine, and only recently approved a few dozen tanks and IFV's, as well as F-16's, when what Ukraine really needs are F-35's which are both stealthy and can come in any language as they have fly-by-wire systems. After 2 years of war Biden finally allowed a few dozen F-16's to go to ukraine which won't make any difference and HIMAR missiles with their ranges SECRETLY shortened after congress approved them. The key advantage of long range missiles is so Ukraine can take out russian artillery. It not only is responsible for 85% of casualties, virtually all of russia's ground defense and all the gains they've made, but for shelling entire cities in to oblivion. You take that out, and ukraine could win the war in a months, with HIMARS specifically designed to beat artillery given its' long range, difficulty in detection, faster firing and cluster munitions which means a higher probability of hitting the target even in entrenched positions. It's also important to remember Biden removed sanctions off of Russia and allowed the nordstream pipeline construction to continue, something Trump blocked, within about the first week in office. But we get endless waves of crap against Trump or Republicans, who are not in office, and this happened while Biden was in power who still has blocked this aid, and whom he was pressured by, via progressives in congress. Although the media is trying to shift the blame to Republicans, it's transparently not the case. You can see the new york times or other run articles about how ukraine should surrender, both right after russia invaded kiev and now 2 years later in the war. The reality is not as cut and dry as people like and it's been almost impossible to get past stalemates. Even despite all that, the U.S. has sent 5 times the aid of Europe who is the most likely to benefit from Russia being stopped in Ukraine and being unable to advance in to poland or the rest of Europe. Europe which is far more left-leaning makes big promises it doesn't deliver on. Europe is still buying 50% of it's gas and oil from Russia, and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. And Europe refuses to spend more on it's own military's, which Republicans and Trump have demanded all the way back in 2017. The problem is that the obvious issue looking us in the face is ignored, that many in the west are outright sympathetic to putin, and are blocking it for this reason. Many just want this to go away and to pretend it never happened and keeping buying their oil from Russia like it's 2010. thehill.com/policy/defense/3762042-us-secretly-modified-himars-for-ukraine-to-prevent-kyiv-from-shooting-long-range-missiles-into-russia/amp/ www.politico.com/news/2021/06/18/white-house-ukraine-military-lethal-weapons-495169 www.axios.com/2021/06/06/zelensky-biden-ukraine-russia-nord-stream-pipeline www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/10/25/progressive-caucus-retracts-ukraine-letter-00063310 www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-firm-ceo-behind-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-source-2021-05-19/
I am wondering, if there still is a 'we' in the west.The older I get the more difficult the decision how to vote becomes. Most parties in my country have some intentions I support, but every party has other intentions I do not want to support. When I was young, it was more kind of 'us against the others', sometimes my side gaining the majority, sometimes the others. Now there seems to be no longer a chance to 'win' because I find myself in a small segment of people who agree on most issues, which never can gain majority. If I am voting I always vote for a some politics with which I disagree. It seems like many of those with whom I disagree (compete?) being in a similar situation. I think that generates the environment for populists' success, because they at least virtually create the illusion of a simple 'us against the others' with a chance to win. But those victories are meaningless, because they usually don't affect our real lives positively. Brexit seems to be an example.
@@W_Bin Can you describe the "we" more explicitly? Maybe by a list of examples? Or by excluding those who are not 'us'? If I watch the USA, they seem only to feel as 'we' when they look at China. The EU is kind of 'we' as we struggle to get along together. I am very fond of that. But inside the nations? Vlad suggests some very promising directions, we could take to become 'us', i.e.: - defend our democratic institutions - show interest in the feelings of those, who don't share your political positions.
The main problem to me is that we don't want to risk Russia losing. In fact I'm convinced that if Western countries West of Poland were forced to chose between Russia taking Kiev and Ukraine taking Crimea, they would rather allow Russia to win. We just don't know how to handle the nuclear blackmail.
We're still in the Cold War mindset, where it was understood that even though the nuclear threat was always implicit, it would never be made overt save if either power was threatened with destruction. We don't know how to handle a mafia state that threaten nukes whenever they don't get their own way.
From Italy here. It IS happening: people being getting bombed by artillery in muddy trenches in Europe, in 2024. But politicians let us live in denial and we fail those who fight for us.
Its not in North American strategic interests to maintain the post ww2 American system that protected Europe and fostered German delusion and weakness. Or so i think. And it is also an anomaly for North Americans of various ilks to be interested in Europe or respect it. French Canada reacted to the French revolution with disgust and had NO respect for France or Europe after. British protection of the Roman Church in Quebec after the conquest also bought aquiescence. The Church retained the vast land grants of Louis the Fourteenth and the Oleans regency, to this day in fact . And ran education and health care till the 1960s. George Washington famously in his farewell address warned against involvement with Europe. Canada became insependent in 1867 at the end of the liberal high water , an era of free trade and something more analogous to the American post WW 2 system and classical late 19th Mercantilist imperialism, Joseph Chamberlain s imperialism. French Canadians fought as volunteers in the papal armies as the house of savoy and radical liberalism took over Italy. It was seperate from the Canadian state. We avoided All colonial wars just as we avoided the colonial wars of the American post WW2 system except Afghanistan. Canadian participation in the Boer war was via Lord Strathconas light horse raised primarily in the ranching region of SW Alberta in the North West Territories and paid for by lord Strathcona personally. He was high commissioner for Canada ( ambassador ) to Britain and was embarrased by Canadas refusal. Enterence into that war would have strengthened French Canadian nationalists and Bourassa at the expense of Prime Minister Laurier s liberals who also bid for French support. We fought in existential wars for Britain in 1914 and 1939 with Grudging french Canadian support which rebelled at conscription . None of this was understood by UK politicians except maybe the Kings and a few exceptionally prescient people like Churchill. The USA became involved in WW One because of the exceptional ignorance and arrogance of post Bismark imperial Germany which intrugued in Mexico and sank the lusitania. President Wilsons life as an academic at Harvard and Princeton also gave him an interest and respect for Europe never shared by the North American populace. FDR is a different story. But again the stupidity of our repulsive enemy , at Pearl Harbour is what forced us into war. The American system no longer serves North American interests , no one Democrat or Republican will sustain it anymore. And its utterly absurd that countries as wealthy and sophisticated as Germany can t defend Europe. Putin knows Germany well , he is not a fool and he despises Germany in the same way Hitler did. And he is not wrong to despise them. As Margaret Thatcher said of the continentals " they are weak , very weak". She meant morally corrupt and deluded in the same way that lead to Kaiser Wilhelm and Hitler. If Germany wants to degrade itself and be a slave of Putin , we should not save the wretched place yet again. But Americans and Canadians will fight if attacked we are dangerous we have a public morality and fearlessness which a repulsive cowardly slave like Germany doesnt have. And that is the issue. And it is wholly misleading to refer to the west as a single entity and rather insulting to imply common values between North America and countries like Poland or Hungary.
In a way a real democratic country have never existed. Communism also not. The ideas I like. Goverments are for the most directed by people with power. The more I look at Ukraines goverment the more I believe they are pupits to. It looks like the Ukraine people want to win the war, but not its goverment. Sometimes it looks that they are helping the Russians. The Russians have done so much against the USA in the history and Ukraine does not exploid these simple kind of facts. Trump can get away with almost everything while most people would be behind bars for having done just one single thing he did. The whole Corona thing. Sweden was hammered because they did not have a lock down. all the demonstrations and what people wanted, that did not help to change things. I can imagine the mistrust in goverments and why autocratic countries getting stronger. It gives people a direction, something to believe in even if it is bullshit and there is action instead of talking around and saying or doing nothing. Lying and keeping secret s has become so normal in politics. It is almost impossible to trust them again. Still there are so many western companies in Russia. I guess this is also one of the reasons that the western countries do not want Russia to loose completely. The money again. (My longest comment ever :) Keep up the good work!
Vlad, it was always drip fed relief. Just enough to bleed Russia. But not enough for a Ukrainian victory. Russia will take far more now than they would if negotiation had happened earlier. I disagree about experts too...we need to take a variety of views....I was no expert in COVID, but I knew the strategy was insane. Experts don't exist without many influences such as ego, tribal influence, being too close to see the wood for the trees, group think etc. This has happened time and time again and it's why the distasteful rise of populism has occurred. I think the experts have become too safe. To afraid to rock the boats and their tenures in academia...so they're often redundant. They're not battle tested anymore. People who see how the world works at a basic level, with as you acknowledge with the change in democracy, have been much more accurate than the " experts" hanging into old tropes. It's the so called experts not been brave enough , too comfortable. Trump is a sign of " the experts" failure. It's the arrogance of these experts that has caused the distrust. Here's an example. Ask " an expert" in agriculture about the use of pesticides and they will tell you they're fine and essential. Ask the bees and the people with autoimmune diseases and you get a different answer. The betrayal by academia is why our democracy is being destroyed and is allowing our democracies to be destroyed. The " experts" allowed Iraq to happen. That was a genuine " rusting" of our decency and democratic strength. The experts caused this!
You need to define "undemocratic politician;" you are not actually behooved to do so, because I already know what you mean by the term. But what I mean by the term and what you mean by the term almost certainly do not align, and I love democracy far more than you do. The "undemocratic politicians" began their march on our societies as early as 2015 and they have continued, in legion, for all these 8 years, to advance their project: the New Totalitarian Tribalist movement. It would seem that you are probably aligned with them, though you imagine yourself to be a champion of democracy. And THAT is this "crisis" of which you speak in its true form.
Dear Vlad, A great deal to take in. How to cope? Back to psychology 101, the brain can only take in so much at a given time. I look at your home. Piano and lots of books. A clue. Learning. Well, a great many do not read so they rely on not great thinkers but social media... and cannot process, or deal with our reality. I am educated and struggle, really struggle. Our socities, i believe, do not actually promote inclusion. Some people have it intrinsically, but many exploit. Ignorance is not bliss, but i would argue anxiety is worse for most. Anyway, this is not the place, and i am not a great thinker. Keep doing what you do.
Im sooo angry about how effective my country is when it goes after petty crime like riding open transport without ticket, consuming drugs, trespassing..., but how compleatly incapable it is with any serious matter like actully reducing carbon consumption, supporting our allies and frinds with a capable military, enforcing the laws online...
One can only love this country with a broken heart. And people who do actully love it, know wich country im talking about!
I am not so sure about the whole "democratic decline" argument as far as Europe goes. What has happened is that the generation that had direct experience with WW2 is dead. The shared WW2 experience was the glue in the solidarity within and between European countries in the post-war period. The increased immigration in the past 30 years has allowed political factions to tap into populism in Europe. That does not mean that people crave far-right-parties, it means that they gravitate towards whatever faction clearly states a willingness to impose limits on immigration and also give some hopes of a re-industrialized Europe (which isn't really possible without more investment in automation). Europe is helping Ukraine, but NATO is based on air-superiority, so Europe does not have the production capacity to give Ukraine overwhelming firepower using conventional ground based troops. The US has more ability to increase capacity than Europe in the short term. The war lines are not moving because of unprecedented enormous mine fields that cannot be cleared efficiently without local air superiority. NATO cannot give Ukraine air superiority as anything more than air-parity will give Putler a green light within his own population to use nukes. As such, this war is doomed to run for a long time, and the best thing we can do with any degree of certainty is to do whatever we can to help Ukraine survive with as few human losses as possible until Putler is weakened at home. The biggest danger here is that the Ukrainians may become demoralized. The only obvious solution is to let the unoccupied Ukraine into NATO and defend it collectively and continue the sanctions/taxation of Russian exports/services/trading-partners.
We seem to have forgotten that the EU should be responsible for strategy in the EU, with other countries supporting them, rather than; Why is the West not doing more? My point being that currently everyone seems to think that the USA is responsible for leading all military forces, stratagies, wars everywhere, with unlimited support and logistics. Which is not possible. As it is also a democracy and thus at the vagaries of domestic politics. That does not mean the USA wont help, but it should come down to regional or local powers providing the majority of force, manpower etc, and the USA providing support. Currently Ukraine is relying on the US, so is Taiwan, and South Korea, and Israel, the forces in the Red Sea. Were I an adversary, my strategy to defeat the US would be to stretch them so thin that the american people say, enough is enough. Fight your own wars.
I find it very annoying when Western democracies project such weakness. We forget that western democracies were the result of revolutions, the French Revolutionary wars, and before that Magna Carta, the English Civil War etc. Peace for its own sake traps many in autocracy that want democracy. So then we have a lobby in the US that is worried about the "collapse of Russia", and that it might create a vacuum that China would fill. So this is staying our hand. In Europe, part of it is that politicians dont want to have the tough conversations Churchill had in WW2 when he said "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, sweat and tears". They take the easy way out and don't tell the people that defence spending needs to be more of a priority, as this competes with other priorities like health spending, social services etc. In some countries, cradle to grave welfare states, and what in France is known as the "Social Model" are themselves secular religions. But Sweden and Finland have woken up. I think a key difference in Scandinavia is that there has long been a consensus that high taxes are an acceptable price to pay for the cradle to grave welfare state. That probably makes rearmament there more feasible (and Finland is already well armed and has 1 million reservists.
I dont see how you can discuss "democracy" as some abstract reality that can exist out side our national history and institutions or how you can equate us with continentals. As to the details of the USA situation Ziehan understands them and you do not. The parallel constitutions of the Anglosphere are not going to be over thrown. We are going home after playing an international role that has become obsolete more so for North America than Britain herself. The only deep sympathy for Europe that exists in North America is from the coastal elites who were corrupted by re engagement with Europe after the 1850s. If there is any memory of Europe in the populace its of a failed evil place our gt gt grandfathers escaped from. Its alien. Ziehan is absolutely right to point out the instability of the Democratic party and contempt with which the pro European internationalists are regarded even by other components like organized labour. And he is right to point out how disliked Biden is and Trudeau is similarly despised. The massive spending on dysfuctional tech like electric cars ( which provide opening for our Chinese enemy in Mexico) are absurd . We will vote against them. Barrach Obama if anything was more repulsive and destructive than Trump and his German style pullisanimity gave us capitulation to Putin in 2013 . But the republican party can be rebuilt. Its a transition . When things re emerge on the other side the coastal elites will be isolated from power , there will be a bi partisan consensus to fight China hold the Pacific and Arctic and withdraw from regions of no value to us like the Black Sea or eastern Mediterranean or the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Britain is a question mark. I want her to survive and prosper but it maybe impossible to raise much interest about Britain in America. England absolutely needs to cultivate relations with the Irish Republic and Scotland , extra land and resources will help England survive climate change and a disrupted world. The small peripheral countries like Ireland are more important to Britain after the end of the USA world order and the probable failure of the EU and Britain needs relations with Scandinavia and Canada. If it helps defend the Pacific its a friend . But minor countries like Britain or Canada can not dictate to the giant USA and these bizarre countries like Germany and France do. There is an etiquette to being a junior partner in an Empire which Japan understands and Britain must learn.
Hello! There is a very well know 'expert', academic and lecturer. Prior to and for a short time after Ukraine 2022, he got a lot of play. He was wrong. He would not retrench. Now, he is a has-been that has done a lot of damage. Regards What kind of spert is an expert?
France is making more artillery shells, ramping up production, for Ukraine. This does not concur with the premise of this video. Australia is supplying an electronic reconnaissance aircraft, along with 100 support staff, plus some armoured personnel carriers called bushmasters.
What we need to do, is make all society's to listen to experts as advisers. I believe, in the West, we don't anymore like advices, don't value experience and knowledge from experience. "Youth is da s...",is how the society thinks. Older persons are not to listen to. In that, I see the problem for the West. Politicians are better if they are young and don't obstruct as older persons sometimes do. The society of the West wants the easy way forward, wants to here good not reality. That can be seen in finance, in politics, in media, in culture, in school world and elsewhere. So, accept knowledge by experience and the way of "hard struggle for good future" is what we have to make the highest value again. I can understand that people want quick solutions, but it destroys the western world.
I think the EU political leaders are afraid of the internal political consequences of trying to properly support Ukraine. At the presente moment the EU is on a very delicate economic situation. The breakout of the energy relation between the EU/Russia was not the end of the world but it was not painless either. The general energy policy and this rushed energy transition made things worse. The most energy intencive industries were forced to relocate to other countries with better access to cheap energy (Asia / Americas). The US Inflation Reduction Act has hurt the EU greatly and competition with China is making things more dificult for EU industries. The EU basically is passing through a deindustrialization process. There is also social unrrest due to migration. The housing crisis does not help either. The sad reallity is that the EU cannot provide Ukraine with what it needs to win without investing a significant amount of resource into it's own militar industrial base. This would require the EU to backtrack from many policies, increase taxs and diverge resources from other areas. This would put additional pressure into the average european and would not be popular at all. This could increase the apeal of many alternative parties, including extreme rightwing parties. I think the most notable example would be Germany AFD, but we saw changes already happening on other countries such as Czechia that elected a pro-russian gov. I think many politicians in the EU look at this and are afraid of losing of their positions if the economic situation get worse.
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"protect us from anti-democratic politicians", and who decides who are anti-democratic?....... the left. No thanks, don't protect me from freedom by means of the authoritarianism you claim to fight against.
🙏
Democracy is gay and weak lol
🐻🇷🇺☦️
@@sullathehutt7720 There is only one reason why you would feel the need to attack others for their sexuality: seems you are unsure about yours. Unless you have some serious issues with whom you would like to bed ( maybe you are not getting any?) there is no reason you would care about whom other citizens want to bed.
Proud of all our citizens in democracy!
We have to get away from the "Either it's perfect or it's garbage" mindset. Neither perfection nor garbage are real. We have to work with what we've got.
I completely agree. How many trash their country or even the west, cos it’s not perfect and thereby open the door for something far worse.
Sure, everything is only ever "refactoring" as software engineers know. However, we should rely on "first principles" and not on hallucinated concepts or beliefs for our decision making.
Same mindset with the arms shipments. Is weapon system X going to win the war? Is it? Is it?
Well, it's never gonna be perfect or garbage. But NATO can't physically supply Ukraine enough weapons to outgun Russia. Also some western leaders will always be against helping random American proxies. Some western leaders will also want to trade with Russia again as soon as possible to boost both of their economies
@@yellowtunes2756 Fortunately, the Russians have provided huge shipments of gear to Ukraine. Botski reported, may you soon be drafted.
Hope you're feeling better Vlad...after all the serious stuff will you play the piano for us !? Warm wishes from England.Jay
Maybe one day on the classical music channel!
Looking forward to that ! On a serious note regarding your discussion it is perhaps as simple as the West not truly understanding the reality of a future following a defeat of Ukraine and how that will directly affect our existence in Europe. I believe many of us feel distanced and protected from a dictator like Putin regardless of his possible destruction of Ukraine and of democracy. Many people do not believe that his expansionist ambitions will extend to more territory than Ukraine...and the people who really have the power have only one question which is 'What's in it for us ?' There is also the distraction of Gaza...if I could wave a magic wand I would stop ALL funds to Israel, and would channel much more financial support to Ukraine. It is an accepted fact that we are not funding Ukraine to win but are possibly giving only enough support to ensure a delayed defeat. One might say therefore that we in the West and the USA are complicit in ensuring the success of Israel and Russia. It is profoundly shameful. @@VladVexlerChat
Nice one! I do feel a big issue in the west is very dualistic thinking, where any issue that a "left" administration supports automatically becomes bad for the "right", and vice-versa. So instead of having the power of a democracy on certain issue like a X vector, we have it more like x/2 - x/2 =0, where two opposite vectors negate each other.
So many people are overloaded with information, and fun videos and games, that political stance is arrived at quickly, like going to the bathroom. As a result, political thought for most is a word for brown stuff.
That seems more like a US thing.
It’s called bipartisanship. It’s the norm in most modern civilisations but in America the lack of it is not only baffling, it’s sickening.
It's hard to come together to support a cause when the other side have systematically been abused for nearly a decade for not agreeing with everything the other side claims
Indeed, it is a feature, not a bug. In a true two party system it is hard to significantly pull in either direction. It helps regulate extremes in governorship. Unfortunately democracies require a public consensus to operate effectively. That consensus usually takes something immenent and dire.
It's absolutely a lack of leadership. We've had complete deficient communication from the administration on our goals, how we plan to achieve them, and updates on the progress of said plan. We also have had no clear presentation of why those goals serve our national interests. I am probably on the hawkish end of support for Ukraine, so I will think most action is insufficient, but the leadership shown by the administration thus far has been anemic at best and probably closer to apathetic.
Biden blurts out what he blurts out. Then his team members "walk back" select utterances. He blurted out "no boots on the ground" in Afghanistan, then in Ukraine. He has a thing about boots. Wants people to think he's smart (and nice) but was passed over for Hillary in 2016. And now the DNC are backing him and Kamala. Were they bribed by Trump?
I hate the only options we have is between vaguely supporting Ukraine and wanting to leave them to their fate. Where is our generation's Ronald Ragan or someone who will unleash the arsenal of Democracy?
We've been getting more of that from Nikki Haley than we've been getting from the current administration. And I say this as a lifelong committed Democrat.
I agree that there has been a near complete absence of leadership on this from Biden, and for me, it's been absolutely agonizing to watch, especially with the knowledge that it will likely get much, much worse.
Weak leadership would be there as one of my bets, also. However, I think another main issue here is radical dysfunction of democratic processes. This covers many things, such as representation, political accountability (or lack thereof), and at the core of it, lack of a common shared ideal of what is fair and what is not based on a social contract that the citizenry, not the elites, subscribe to. In other words, the beneficiaries of the western democracies see no problems with the current social order while there is growing discontent among the western public and there is a tendency to marginalize such discontent. Dropping rates of electoral participation are a sign of this.
Biden hasn't been perfect, but remember that people were expecting worse, both from the US and Europe. That's how bad the West's position on Ukraine was before 2022. Nobody in the West wanted to deal with Ukraine and confront Russia, everyone was celebrating the supposed end of major land wars on the European continent, and European countries were cutting military budgets and industry like if there was nothing to worry about.
Vlad's theory has many problems, one of which is just that you don't need high social trust to produce ammunition. Russia doesn't have great social trust. The problem is that Western Europe has destroyed its military-industrial base for decades, and only now are factories starting to be built or expanded, but it takes years for these things to happen. The most serious strategic error was the complacency of thinking that Europe did not need to have a military anymore after the collapse of the USSR, or thinking that the USA could do everything. Hopefully now Europe understands that they need their own military power.
Thank you, Vlad. I’m 82, live in California, and I’ve been steadily supporting Ukraine and Ukrainian volunteers with cash donations, daily prayers, and letters to President Biden, my Senators and my Representative, and phone messages to Speaker Mike Johnson. Last night I went to bed crying, because my efforts DO feel like dropping bits of water into a bucket with holes. I try to fabricate hope, but I’m so angry with the Republicans, and am embarrassed about the U.S. lack of a spine. I don’t want “partial success.” I grew up respecting our democracy and have believed it will come back and be OK. Now, for the first time in my life, I do feel scared. And I guess I’ve not accepted the possibility that Trump could win. Horrors!! Thanks for your sobering assessment. What more can I do?
God bless you, Carol. You have our gratitude. Sometimes even a drop can break a dam.
I'm a Californian too. I share your experience of this, and Ukraine support. You are doing what you can. God bless you.
at 82 your not very smart if you really checked on whats going on you wouldnt give a sht about ukraine
As a Ukrainian I am thankful to you and other Americans who stand by Ukraine's side because this is the right thing to do to support a country fighting off an agression.
If I understand correctly Vlad's point of view about the democracy, you do exactly what's needs to be done - engage in citizen politics. You should do that regardless of who is the president or senator or representative
Perhaps you need to spend less time preaching to the choir and more time reaching out to the those who oppose Ukraine funding. Biden and his admin ignore such talk because they know they don't have the votes to get it through congress. Republican congressmen ignore it because they don't have the support of their base to allow them to vote for it. Democrat supporters such as yourselves need to reach out to Republican voters, admit that you know that the media and politicians on your side lied for 4 years about Trump-Russia collusion to hamstring his agenda, but plead with them that despite that, Russia actually does pose a threat to the West, and needs to be stopped before they invade more countries. Unfortunately, that will require a level of empathy for Trump voters that most Biden voters no longer possess after years of conditioning and lies by the media. That is not to say that you have to agree with Trump's agenda or like him as a person, but you guys have a lot of admitting to Trump supporters that you know a lot of what was said about him were lies before Trump voters will be willing to listen to anything you have to say again. They have to feel that the truth matters to you before they're willing to consider that you might have some truths to share with them that they don't already have.
Right now, Western Democracies are short on leaders, but long on placeholders.
I can sadly confirm it from Hungary.
Did you miss Vlad's point on that, or just disagree with it? If disagree, why?
@@imipak23 Thing is, we have an interest of conflict.
In the past decades, governments in Europe have been a menace to their own population. You see this in Germany and England for example. So do we want leaders?
No, we don't. The best course of action has been to vote for the most inept politicians and coalitions of parties as this greatly limits the damage they can cause to the population.
But in regards to Ukraine, we want competent political leaders that do what is necessary.
Naturally, we can't have it both ways.
to.. @peterkiviat9969
Sounds like Russia!
@@svr5423 The truth is, democracies do not usually prefer great leaders, but have always been attracted to politicians who stay out of their way, and muddle along. It is only in times of crises, that democracies are attracted to leaders who will rally them. As soon as the crisis is over, people prefer to elect those who are keyed into their comfort zones.
I'd say two reasons. 1. The west remembers going into Afghanistan and Iraq. They gave money to the governments. It wss then later foind thata majority of ot ended up in corruption. 2. People are afraid Russia will use nuclear weapons if we give too much. I say help Ukraine with everything it needs.
Do laypeople somehow not realize that China and NK are major threats also? Jesus, you people and your tunnel vision...
I don't think there is any comparison with the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, those wars were highly controversial and debatable conflicts done in the name of bringing democracy to some countries populated by people that are openly hostile to western values and virtues.
In comparison the war in Ukraine is an existential threat, a medieval style land grab and forceful enslavement of sovereign democratic nation, a population that aspires for the western values and liberties. As for corruption there will always be corruption, you can be sure there was corruption in USA and UK even during WW2.
I think this fear of Russia using nuclear weapons is mostly manufactured by Russia. Aiding Ukraine does not directly threaten Russia's power structure, while our response to a nuclear attack definitely would threaten their power structure.
@@BaddeJimme you think the regime could survive being kicked back to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders? I don't know if it could, but I agree Putin thinks not.
@@imipak23 I think it is at least possible for Putin to be expelled from Ukraine without him losing power, while an exchange of nukes would guarantee an end to Putin's regime.
I don't have context for this, but I hope you know how loved you are.
Totally agree - democracy is in crisis, I brought my children up to know that democracy is not a ‘given’ and that every generation will have to fight for it: I think history is poorly understood and ( I am based in the U.K.) many people do not even know who their MP is and how our democracy works. We need to teach young people how it works, what the alternatives are, why we need to protect democracy. How important voting is etc, it’s hard to protect something if you don’t know how it works. Thank you Vlad for what you are doing - I hope you are keeping well.
Many entering the U.S. at the moment weren't brought up that way. Not sure if the immigrants in the UK could care any less who is their MP. Those in America have high expectations (Dickens reference) of what their new country will do for them, not what they can do for their new country (JFK reference).
no such thing as democracy
My MP is Penny Mordaunt…😐 Before that it was Mark Harper. When I wrote to him about an issue that was causing safety concerns on our roads, he gave me a full and detailed explanation on what was the reason, what was intended to be done and took TIME to talk to me. The action alone made me feel the authority was concerned and not dismissive of my voice. I may not have been totally happy with the answer, but he registered my concerns as my representative and I appreciated that.
@@frankrenda2519Says you.
go and vote about immigration in your so called democracy i will bet you cannot.@@georgemorley1029
This explanation just feels right. I sometimes can't shake the idea that what we experience might feel similar to what people in the 1930s might have felt when democracies were struggling, the international order was crumbling and autocratic regimes were on the rise. Even during the rise of Hitler many had this "It probably won't get too bad" attitude. The missing democratic capacity in France, the UK led to Munich 1938 and Appeasement in my view. People only finally were ready to face facts when there was no escaping it no more and it was obvious war was coming. Let's hope we wake up earlier.
I would sum it up differently. Economic desperation led to new leaders. Some believed that the new leader in German was going to be a "nice guy."
If Trump wins, that is the fastest way to end the war. Why? Because Europe will realize it's on its own, panic at first, but then remember it has had 30+ years of NATO cooperation to prepare for this, and then start acting like it. But this is only going to happen that fast once they realize they can't just wait for the US to foot the bill.
It also lead to betrayal of Baltic countries that were occupied in 1940 and left under USSR occupation for 50 years. Betrayed by West
Oh please. The Soviets, Chinese, Yugoslavians, etc did all the leg work in WW2. "Democracy" lmao. Whatever.
I am a sailor. For peaceful sleep i do a lot of inspection on my boat to prevent leaking holes and i repair before the problem is to big. Best regards to you Vlad from Caribbean
My sleep is more peaceful. I live on land.😃
@@AstroGremlinAmerican well, have fun!
Thanks for this! It seems intuitively true to me. It's helpful to understand the timidity with which 'the West' has acted towards Ukraine. Anything that lowers my stress level helps me to work more effectively.
I work well under stress. The trick is to not allow strain, it can be quite bad even though one's brain is the only cause.
@@AstroGremlinAmerican I know I can work well under stress, but I find Im much more cool and productive about it when I understand the constraints and environment im working with.
Thats why I like videos like Vlads, they allow me to grow understanding, which makes me more confident and calm.
See, this is why democracy loses. It produces weak, emotionally frail people like yourself. Lol
It truly breaks my heart to see Ukraine not get what it needs. The west is condemning Ukrainians to death.
Prolonging the war with weapons is causing deaths. No-one wants to save lifes with negotiations for some reason
They need competent generals and the West cannot provide that.
Bit late now with so many casualties on both sides! Tragic
only in ukraine@@benhudson4014
@@Rtg5637What can western generals do without air support, with weapons supplied too late or too little???
We need to get our act together as the western world and I’m starting this as an American who leans center right
Center right? That was a democrat in 2000. First, we need to help the world's poor by letting them come live with us. It will make them magically different.
As a lefty, I respect anyone (left or right) who values the most important method of governing, democracy. I'm from Australia, we had the Teal wave, a bunch of moderates who sent the conservative party a message, which they ended up completely ignoring with Dutton.
@@edgarwalk5637 "Democracy" is becoming a hard sell to many Trump supporters when every time the Democrat officials and pundits open their mouths to say "our Democracy" they actually mean "our political, media, and cultural hegemony", and when they act blatantly anti-democratically so often, such as when they refused to give a single penny for US border security once Trump lost the house, and how they're trying to throw him and all his prominent supporters into either prison or bankruptcy due to legal fees and remove him from the ballot.
Agree. We used to have a common basis of facts and culture, and I'm not sure how to get back to that, and I'm not sure democracy can function without it. (I'm a center-left American).
The important thing is that you are in the centre and not to the extreme of either side.
How, on earth, were there ever so many trillions and trillions for Iraq and Afghanistan?
Politicking. And a very notable lack of algorithms and excess of unnecessary political discourse caused by them.
The problem is. You don’t need to be an expert, to know this is the most positive EV move supporting Ukraine. Like any basic common sense of intuition, game theory, geopolitics or logic should suffice. To anyone not willing to support ukraine, i would ask them the question when should we intervene? Baltics? Europe proper? Every nation on it’s own? It is the absence of any foresight that leads us to this form of ‘understanding’, but that is i suppose more to do with human behaviour. At least some people would rather put their hands on their faces to get ‘rid’ of danger. If you don’t engage in war, war engages in you. You can’t decide not to. Maybe we got complacent. Maybe this truly is the ultimate destiny of humanity. There is some form of acceptance in understanding this. Too much complacency needs to get punished, so people learn. If people look away, they won’t look away in 10 years. By then, i’ll be on copacabana beach sipping my coconut. If there are trenches over at the Netherlands, ill be the last to occupy them, because we should have never got it that far. If we go de facto ‘all nations on their own’ i go take that game a little bit further. Everyone on their own. I care as much about the dutch as i do about Ukrainians. That also means, the game is being written in 2024 on multiple levels. I am reading the game. I am understanding the game. I will act on the rules accordinyly.
The average Trump supporter does not support Ukraine because the support America First, Ukraine about 50th, and sadly they're right to do so. Ukraine is a Europe problem, and Europe really needs to grow a pair of balls and give Ukraine the backing it needs to win. Europe has all the money and tech and manufacturing it needs to do it, it just wants US to pay the shot, and if Trump gets in, they'll admit that's not going to happen and prove to us all that they can infact do it themselves after all. And if they can't, what the hell was 30+ years of NATO funding for in the first place?
At this point, almost every country should be on their own
"Ukraine can live without russia. russia cannot live without Ukraine. " (quoting Anna from Ukraine) Regarding russia, the West must learn what Ukraine already knows.
in my opinion, we should add into this analysis that our society became much more sectarian in terms of ideologies and political discourse. It became impossible to "discuss" with a political opponent. All of the parties are acting in maximalist aims, instead of going for the middle ground.
A democracy is functioning when the vast majority of the population is uneasy about the outcome of a policy but accept it as the negotiated middle ground. These days, the political discourse is made to "crush" the opponent and get on top of the heap, out of the debate. (See the discussions around brexit and the budget discussions in the USA as two examples.)
There needs to be a level of respect for the positions of the other side in order for their to be dialogue. There's no respect coming when one side bullies the other so hard and for so long that they didn't even realize they were doing it anymore, then was caught totally surprised when a bunch of right-wing candidates that hit back hard started getting elected, followed by trying to escalate the bullying but it not working.
@@theredscourge I would not call it bullying by a single side. I do not remember for example any successive Democrat presidents in the USA. Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr, Obama, Trump, Biden.
If there was bullying, we would have seen more Democrats than Republicans. No, I think it is the bias that is fed by the social media that pushes the extreme ends of the spectrum more to the front, as the algorithm favours them over moderate talks.
At the end this creates the environment where you see only the purified extremism like that we saw in 30 years war that cost nearly the whole European population.
What catholic and protestants were saying were 99,9% same but they killed each other for the 0,1% of the difference.
In the US aid to Ukraine is held up by 7 Republicans . Out of a total 535 members of Congress. Meanwhile, 2/3 of the population favors continued assistance. So much for representative government.
yep it’s not a majority in the public or congress it’s a cynical clique of the most authoritarian possible.
Can't they just be outvoted if everybody else votes for military aid?
@@stephenhill545exactly, the Democrats are perfectly capable of voting with the pro-Ukrainian majority of Republicans to continue funding Ukraine
@@stephenhill545nope, the speaker in the house and the senate majority leader set the agenda. It’s literally impossible to get a vote unless the leadership allows it. Basically 1 person in the entire country is holding this hostage because 2-3 other people might with draw support from him causing him to lose the speakership.
I don’t like this. And it will probably not even help to shoot the messanger…🤔
It's true, the situation we are in with democracy and not taking decisions to fully support Ukraine and the bigger chance Trump will be the next president of the US scares the hell out of me.I am not a religious person but this time I often think'may god help us'. I try to be optimistic but that's hard these days.
Thanks Vlad for your thoughts and everything you do, with love from The Netherlands ❤
Don't be afraid that Trump will win, accept that it's already a certainty, and think about what you can do to advance your goals THAT WILL WORK (for example not more of the same tactic that the left used of just bullying and lying to everyone on the right)
The democracy's Achile's heel is the legitimacy of the political class and the sanctity of the judicial rulings in the highest court.
People are not going to civil war anymore when they think they are in control of their country by voting and sometimes by peaceful protests. But this system favours the status quo, and it even puts the mind of the citizen in a box.
And the political/economic class manage the lazy media with simple-minded distractions and easy distinctions, like a Punch and Judy show. Biden's latest speech was platitudinous, as though he has a sole claim to democracy. In fairness, Biden doesn't write his speeches and can barely read them.
True, but no one truly wants a civil war. They bark loud, but what % of the population will actually pick up a gun and lay down their life for a policy they disagree with? Worst case scenario is the population becomes apathetic and controlled, as russia does it. The votes still matter, and weathering 4 years of a leader you don't like seems like the logical outcome.
As soon as you used the wrongly, I knew you weren't an english speaker, butvfrom a country which uses the articles differently. Just be open about where you are from instead if pretending to be somebody from a nation you don't come from.
@@stephenhill545 I am not pretending anything. I am an English speaker, but not a native one. I do not understand what are you trying to argue about.
I only feel what touches me. All else is illusion. This attitude is as endemic 'in the West', as it is in 'the East'. Until it appears on your doorstep. Then you are trapped.
And it's feelings, taking priority in our schools when it was discovered that many students aren't so good at thinking.
To put yourself in somebody else's shoes can be taught to nearly everybody.
sensitive, humane and thoughtful as always vlad
Thanks so much !
It seems like your view of the current state of our democracies is based on the state in a few, mainly English speaking, countries - which might be fair if your main viewerbase is from these countries. However, sometimes you come across as if all democracies around the world are failing / declining, which I don't think is the case ... at least not beyond "normal" cycles.
One year ago Vlad was talking about Gernany as an example of a stable democracy and I agreed. Today I am not so sure any more.
Your "a ship with a couple of holes in the middle of the sea during a storm" analogy made me think of a film I watched last year, titled "Nowhere". It is a Spanish film, and in Spanish (but available on a well known streaming site with English subtitles), and it is not a ship/boat, but a shipping container which fell from a ship that she is stuck inside, but in it you can see the heroine of the film literally do just that...deal with being stuck in the middle of the sea in a "boat" filling with water from the holes in it. Though in her case it was already a "sinking ship at sea", not just a "ship with a few holes in it that can be fixed before it becomes a sinking ship". She makes her choice after accepting her reality (and yes, its a thriller, so not everything follows logic & everything is exaggerated to make it more thrilling, but that is the luxury of fiction), and tries to get some of the water entering exit her "boat", not just "accept things as they are without any (counter) action from her"
I also like the quote from Miep Gies, one of the people who helped hide Anne Frank)s family): "“But even an ordinary secretary or a housewife or a teenager can, within their own small ways, turn on a small light in a dark room.” Just replace "ordinary secretary" (true in her case) with "ordinary civilian" to be less precise. There was a wonderful TV series about her & the Frank family released last year which got its title from this very saying/quote by her. A small light. (cause a hundred of "small lights" make up already a "big fire". A million of small donations create lots of funds. Many small deeds by "single, small people" can/will lead to "big, important things". ON their own every single persons small deed may mean not that much in the grand scheme of things, but all put together...that is another story already. And just cause we/some might not see the big picture & how their small deed can help, does not mean "small deeds" are "pointless".
It's almost absurd how democracies fuel their inability to act by not being able to act. It feels like the less they do of the right thing the more they're constrained in their next action. And the cycle continues until no action is performed at all, and trust disappears completely.
Update: uh, a similar but more elaborate point is made at the end of the video; I should've finished the video before typing...
Democracies are run by people who want people to like them. And people trust their feelings and biases. Almost every elected in California has an Hispanic last name.
Serious question: Why did you lose hope?
Democracy is under threat, for sure, but what makes you think it is a "lost cause"?
Because NATO physically can't outproduce Russia because western military industry is in private hands. Their leaders won't take military industry in government's hands and won't rewrite constitution to help some random corrupt American proxy
When even an old well-educated man with PhD, experienced psychoanalyst, was recruited by a KGB operative when he was a university student in the West, became a communist, visited Moscow a number of times, and have been spreading hateful Putin's propaganda against Ukraine. And there's plenty of such communists in the West, not to mention Russian speaking immigrants who watched Russia TV and was brainwashed by the propaganda. Not to forget powerful and influential people corrupted by Putin. Money talks....
So the message of the video is not to lose hope, I certainly haven’t lost hope - that would be wildly out of character. But, democracy is in decline. Though again- decline is not collapse.
Apart from giving weapons, I wonder what else should/could the west do for Ukraine?
They want the US to completely destroy Russia. Damn any of the consequences. That’s it nothing short of that will satisfy them.
@TheJeanette53
We’re already contributing with funds so Ukraine can pay their troops, civil servants, etc. as well as humanitarian aid.
But we could do plenty more; expell Russians from the West, ban all import of Russian goods, ban investment in Russia, ban every export to Russia, close borders and intensify NATO drills and air activity to further stretch Russian resources.
You are one of the few people who think’s Trump will win
💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛 Dont forget Ukraine💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛
💙💛Слава Україні💙💛Героям слава💙💛Хай живе Україна💙💛
💙💛Glory to Ukraine💙💛Glory to the heroes💙💛Long live Ukraine💙💛
💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛 Не забувайте Україну💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛
💙💛Звільніть Україну від російських орків і зомбі!💙💛
💙💛Free Ukraine from russian orcs and zombies!💙💛
🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻💙💛CRIMEA💙💛IS💙💛UKRAINE💙💛🌻🌻🌻🌻🌻
❤❤❤
What I genuinely think is happening is two things, maybe three. Firstly with inflation and increase in the cost of living in many Western countries I think governments to be able to help Ukraine more, in the sense of supplying them with enough weapons and more importantly ammunition, would require spending at a time when there are increasing domestic concerns, which means that there are priorities elsewhere, especially after the pandemic which has also added spending that needs paying back. In addition to this at the start of the war countries like the US, UK, and other NATO members were happy to give weapons to Ukraine that were sitting idle and having to be replaced soon anyway, whereas to don't them now production needs to be increased, which needed to be done a year ago, but requires money, and this money needs to come from somewhere.
Secondly, there is the fact that in the US, and in the UK we are getting to the end of election cycles and so new elections are coming up. There are those on the right who say why are we doing all this? Does this really affect us? Is this our flight? And those in the right always like to use the rhetoric that couldn't this money be better spent here in our own country, and I just don't think it has been explained well enough that firstly the money allocated for Ukraine is either gifting or stockpiles of weapons that will expire in the not to distant future and it's really mostly paying American companies to produce new, updated weapons for the US military to replace them.
Thirdly, and I know you might not agree with me on this one, but as far as the EU is concerned I think Hungary, and its pro Putin regime, can and will slow down and block things happening quickly in terms of getting budgets for supplying what has been promised by politicians approved and actually put into action. There are others in the EU (and UK) that I think also, despite not coming out in public and saying it, either aren't wanting Ukraine to regain its lost territory, or are too incompetent to actually put in place the measures needed to make this happen.
There was always going to be a shortage of ammunition production in the EU and thus available to supply to Ukraine without wheels being taken this time last year's, maybe earlier, this I think was pointed out by Perun's channel not that long into the war and we far as I know nothing has really been done to address this. I do honestly think though that the biggest issue is the US, and more significant the Republican Party and Trump. You could, and many do say that Europe should be able to cope without the US, and I don't disagree this position, but the US is still the world's superpower with the most advanced military on the planet and I think nothing at NATO really gets done without it's say so. The EU is a trade area, it doesn't have one military, it was never, despite many of its opponents claiming it is, a centralised political entity and so for Europe think of it instead of having one battle between supporters of Ukraine and those who think what we're doing is either enough or to much, but 27+ battles, each in their own parliament, and with just one or two not be unified in backing Ukraine it's just not easy, and that's not to mention long term Russian influence in some countries some that were vassell states to the Soviet Union in the time of the Cold War, which although changed when these countries embraced democracy some of that influence is still there, and probably manifests itself more during harder times which we're in now.
How are you have though, I believe it's a product of the financial crash in 2008 and basically a lost decade of growth after that, during which people haven't seen their lives get better, many people have gotten poorer whilst those at the top are getting richer. This sets up the perfect breeding ground for bad actors to stir up nationalistic ferver to blame all these immigrants for any this has happened rather than the failure of their own policies, whilst enriching themselves and their friends at the same time. When this happens it sets the scene the politics we're seeing through the western world and that has been going on for some time now. How are "fix" this I don't know, but what I do know is that turning our backs on Ukraine won't make the problem of Putin to away, it won't make the world a safer place, and with an this it won't make our lives more prosperous, or fix the problems we have in all our countries. What really is needed is leadership and I don't know where this is coming from now, or anytime in the near future.
I'm always so happy when i get a notification about a new video. It's like unexpectedly finding out there's a last piece of cake.
💛
Ehhh No. You are right of course; but this isn't the main reason we are giving so few weapons that we know actually work well and could be decisive in this kind of conflict.
The switchblade drones were a faillure. Himars was a great success ... But there are close to a thousand m270's (the tracked variant) and more then 500 m142 (the wheeled variant) built. The USA could have sent a hundred and nobody would notice. There were 6 ... If these were delivered by the dozen; with modern ammunition and ATACMS; Russia would have been driven back fairly quickly. The Patriot system; same thing ... There are hundreds of these systems currently NOT in use. Can you imagine if Ukraine could deploy a redundant net of air defenses including over the front line ? Ukraine would quickly achieve air superiority and Russia would be driven back.
The West isn't helping Ukraïne win, because there are experts & politicians afraid of the nuclear danger and chaos of a sovjet-style collapse. This is the primairy reason we're dosing our weapon deliveries as to keep the balance; and we're hoping that Putin will see reason and stop. And this bugs me, as Putin won't stop; and fear of nukes isn't helping anyone making the right decisions. And where are the UN blue helmets ? We're simply afraid of russia; and afraid of what russia might do when cornered.
I disagree. The assumption here is democracies have control. The fact is they lost it to the corporations years ago. It isn't democratic capacity that matters, but market capacity.
How do we fight against that?
Who are the experts?
What qualifications do these experts have?
Who is finding the experts?
The least qualified people to make decisions about war and strategy are politicians?
What qualifications does a politician have?
The democratic system gives a leader. Very rarely are they a good leader
My examples are is is Biden really really the best person of the whole population of the USA can find as its leader. What a disgraceful system if that’s the best they can find.
The problem is all the good qualified people don’t go into politics. What we are left with is to pick from a very ordinary bunch. Look at Boris Johnson or Schulz - what a pathetic grouping of very ordinary people
US Leadership did not come to the American People to explain the support and consequences. Also, The current US administration has created an intense lack of security and instability of the US Southern border. Add to this economic uncertainty and huge price increases leading to economic pain in food and fuel to the every day US Citizens.......Uncertainty, insecurity, instability...leads to less will to keep sending funds and resources abroad.
In my opinion people are looking at this from the wrong angle. At the same time they do not listen when officials let the truth slip.
Start of the war Lloyd Austin (United States secretary of defense" stated that we would provide what Ukraine needs to weaken Russia to the point that it cannot attack its neighbor's again. He didn't say win and the press got mad. Winning was not the plan.
Mid 2022 a former NATO commander stated, We are watching a smaller Soviet military fighting a larger Soviet military.
Before the failed counteroffensive NATO Command stated that Ukraine had what it needed for the counteroffensive.
Press asked former UK military commander why the offensive failed and he replied, We cannot expect them to fight like professional NATO troops.
But the west does not want Ukraine. The west simply doesn't want Russia to have it, and the security lie has been exposed.
Since the start of the cold war the military industrial complex has sold us the story that we have to prepare for war with the mighty USSR, then it collapsed. So they said it was Russia that is the real threat, spend billions more. Then we discover that Russia looks good on paper but that is it. Russia is a paper tiger that is left out in the rain. It is only a threat when it comes to nukes.
Democracy is not failing us. It is working as it should and debate is taking place. Some still believe that Russia is a threat. Others point out that Russia cannot beat Ukraine and an attack on NATO would be suicide. Ukraine has no professional soldiers and it is a waste to send more money and gain nothing. So the debate continues.
Meantime the military industrial complex knows the paper tiger is out of the bag and they need another super villain and that is China.
It is complacency... and the West not challenging their fears!
The problem with experts is that the very most of them follow an own business model. And there are others with a 180 degree different ideas.
I am a educated ignorant ( similar to many experts ). I think the Western democracies are in decline. The autocrats all over the world are rising. The weapons of the autocrats are getting more powerful. Not much hope.
Pre-WWII, I can't think of a single democracy or republic, all the way back to Rome, that managed to restore its form of government after a fall to rule by an emperor or fascist leader. In all cases that I am aware of it took the total military defeat and occupation by an outside power to pry the fascists off of their government.
I don't think the US can count on any outside power coming to save us from ourselves.
Personally I think that Ukraine lost. Sure the war is still ongoing but Ukraine's absolutely huge, well trained, well armed, battle hardened, extremely motivated armed forces as they stood in Feb 2022 was destroyed. The inrush of keen volunteers after the invasion was so great that Ukraine was in the envious position of being able to choose the best volunteers.
We (the west) built and payed for Ukraine's Feb 2022 army.
We then trained their next wave, or next army which was the original offensive. Which was successful.
And then we trained the next army which pathetically failed in the Counter Offensive.
Zaluzhnyi wrote a very strange article about two months back where he stated that inorder for Ukraine to win they needed a technological advantage over Russia akin to China having invented gun powder before it's adversaries.
Obviously that's not going to happen.
A few weeks back he requested 20,000 fresh troops to be delivered to him each and every month from then on.
There are no more volunteers.
Two weeks ago on a Ukrainian TV show Budanov said that Ukraine now relies totally on conscripted soldiers. He said these soldiers were absolutely unmotivated and did not want to fight.
He described these men as being "useless" on the battlefield.
That's the word he used. Useless.
Do it's done. We failed in out attempts to geopolitically isolate Russia. In fact Russia doing what we can't even imagine doing geopolitically.
We failed to destroy Russia's economy by using sanctions and theft.
And we failed on the battlefield.
It's not our choice whether to win or lose. We've been outplayed by an adversary we underestimated.
You used a ship on the ocean as a metaphor, Vlad.
Our ship that's out there bobbing around on the wild ocean is piloted by Joe Biden.
God save us.
What happened in 2022 was the super-mobilization of the ideological, politically active part of society, 90% understand that an endless war with Russia is madness and a road to nowhere.
I Disagree, while retaking their full territory may not be on the table, they are still able to mount successfully defenses. Wars aren't winner take all, if you make victory cost too much in lives, or manpower, or public outcry then you can get some of your goals as the loser. In this regard Ukraine has the ability to ensure it's independence and get itself free from Russian influence.
Russia's economy while not likely to fall overnight or fall at all they've taken massive damage. Europe was a major importer of their fuel and although they tried to switch to India sanctions and the middle east undercutting their prices are cutting them out of the market. They've been forced to announce production cuts for oil.
Victory is still within reach if we make the effort to grab it.
Someone needs to tell the US that “Bipartisan” doesn’t mean a sexually adventurous Yugoslavian commando.
Our lack of ability to help Ukraine, in a way that would force Russia to withdraw from Ukranian territory is very frustrating. Frightening is were we are are headed if our lack of ability to work in our own self interes isn't stopped. Please help me understand how to help ourselves collectively before we self implode.and we really are in he'll. Ukraine ifailure s a five star red alert about ourselves
For Russia, Ukraine is a territory where 15 million Russians live, Russia is fighting for its people, no one can clearly say what the United States is fighting for in Ukraine, this is the reason for the inability to help Ukraine.
I attribute it primarily moral weakness and cowardice. Simple really. Additional factors are the moral confusion that arises from woke liberalism and a lack of national pride.
Great job chewing simple thoughts for tens of minutes.
Hey i wonder, so you speak of reduced democratic capacity due to decline... and yet how does it work?
Let's say US has 3 factions, Democrats (support Ukraine), Republicans of more traditional kind (support Ukraine) and Trump wing (supports Putin). About right? There's obviously also the Tankies, but who cares.
If democrats are shuffling unable to more decisively move towards supporting Ukraine, then aren't they undermining themselves? Like if you have an impression that support for Ukraine is declining in the population, doesn't it mean you specifically have to double down to create a clear differentiation vs. opponent? Because if you reduce efforts to support Ukraine, because you think Trump is winning, you think this is the way the wind is blowing, that you have to move towards your opponent to capture more potential voters, well you aren't going to capture a clearly anti-Ukraine Trump voter and make them vote Dem, just not going to happen.
Let's say you have a flexible voter, who has 3 issues which are important to them, and Ukraine is one of these issues. This voter says one should support Ukraine. But otherwise this voter may have a temporary Democrat fatigue or may be more Republican aligned. And if Dems aren't willing to actually help Ukraine, he may decide that this issue is a lost cause anyway, so he might focus on his other pet issues and vote Trump. This is the sort of undermining that i'm thinking of, losing the middle by indecisiveness and not gaining people from opposing side either. Is this a thing, is it so, is there something i'm overlooking?
(question to everyone, not necessarily personally to Vlad, as usual)
Wtf, why did my comment get deleted?
In any case, in Finland we say "Siberia teaches." If the collective West refuses to take action now, we will have to learn later and it won't be so easy anymore.
Russian bots reporting ya.
Thank you Vlad. This post struck a chord with me. I have long thought about the growing decline of cohesion in Western societies, in my own at least. It appears to me, that without some sort of existential crisis threatening a society, there is a steady fracturing of any shared narrative. Am I wrong to think that one outcome of two world wars was a bolstering of democracies and a sort of hopeful cohesion in and of the free world? However, in my lifetime, I see that slowly dissolving into tribalism, and more recently, being supercharged by the development of the internet and it's troublesome spawn, social media.
Very interesting train of thought. Maybe some deeper truth can be found by digging into it. Looking into why democracy spread so much after WW2 can be worthwhile, and how countries unity and resolve strengthens after crisis. Another example is the rwandan massacre. It transformed into a completely different country after that nightmare, like a collective realization of what must be avoided at any cost, and what must be pursued instead. Its always been strange why such wonderful things like democracy spread after ww2 and why now in peace the wests principles and ideals are slowly decaying, when it should be growing more unified and stronger. Not that russia is faring better, when its trying to turn into soviet 2.0 in a moment of despair at it's own stagnation, decay and incompetence. No use responding to this comment, unlikely to read it, just throwing out ideas.
we need better democratic leaders !
We need to be better democratic citiziens!
@@JuliaMRichter that too !
We elect them.
@@stephenhill545 well yeah, some of us from this " We " have 💩 for brains... and they like to simp for Putrid and betray democracies in their OWN ALLIANCE. & that needs to be CALLED OUT ASAP.
Thanks Vlad! There’s some great self-help in here for the individual, haha. Inaction leads to lack of ability which leads to inaction. The anxiety/depression death loop for an individual person.
You can’t wish yourself out of a depression. You must address the behaviors/beliefs which sustain it. Same for a democracy I guess.
Depression is a tough nut to crack. The cure takes what depression takes away.
This was very helpful. It is SO illogical to give half-ass support to Ukraine that it's infuriating to watch. As a U.S. citizen, who has followed the rise of the religious right in the U.S. (& their marriage to the Republican Party), & the Democratic Party's weak, traitorous attempts to walk a theoretical "middle ground", rather than address the needs of the country, I know EXACTLY how I feel: WRATHFUL & DISGUSTED. As I look over modern history, it seems to me that we (the U.S.) have been here multiple times. The wealthy get outrageously greedy, & forget the need to "appease the masses" in order to protect their privileged positions, until the majority get desperate, angry, & LOUD ENOUGH to be heard/force change.
P.S. DJT will NOT WIN, unless the (corrupt) U.S. Supreme Court feels that they are ACTUALLY untouchable (& paves the way). EVEN THEN, DJT lost in 2020 because people (especially the young) came out SPECIFICALLY to vote AGAINST him (not so much to vote for Biden). A corrupt Supreme Court ruling will galvanize the majority like nothing else. Besides, DJT could literally implode at any given moment. 🤞
I’m outraged, too, and hope you are right. DT must not win, and he and his enablers must be brought to justice.
So true. Democracies are weak. The non-stop, 24 hour a day news cycle and instantaneous social media barrage of commentary are wearing us down. We can't handle the information overload. There's no time to draw a breath, let alone actually reflect on anything that might result in coherent and effective policy making.
Agreed. Freedom is, and always has been, hard work.
Vlad, you are the most discerning and trustworthy guide in what are, for me, otherwise alien and complex arenas. May Heaven Bless You and restore you to full health! I know it can happen! Have faith.
That means the world thank you so much!
There are elections coming up in many countries, which causes leaders to be very cautios of making bold strong decisions.
I worry you are off the mark here. Whilst experts in Poland / UK / Baltics / Finoscandia might pursue outright victory over Russia, the US experts see the benefit advantage in a quagmire for Russia, and the French / German / Belgian / Austrian experts classes value peace at any cost. I suspect the populace of all nations converge on opposing Russian aggression, but the state apparatus of various countries is the true site of democratic failure. Acknowledging this different locus of democratic failure is the true failure we choose to turn our backs to.
It's a rerun of 1930s appeasement, and it will end in disaster.
I know this was mostly repeating points VV has made many times before, but as a tight summary of where we all are, it was really excellent. In fact I'm going to listen to it again to make sure I didn't miss anything.
Sorry to keep repeating myself. I think repeating yourself is sometimes important.
@@VladVexlerChat I firmly agree on the importance of repetition (I, for one, certainly benefited in this instance), and thus there's no need for the apology :)
The answer is don't look up, don't reason, just keep going. We know what's right we know who is evil. Just keep faith. Been in this sort of position which took many years every day to keep going. Once the course is set just keep going especially wh6it is totally illogical. It will be ok. ❤
We need a well constructed truth network. Democracy needs an improved algorithm. #DoomBusting
Vlad, from my uninformed and non-expert perspective, I have the impression that the EU, over the long term, has developed greater capabilities in foreign and defence matters, achieving significant progress in implementation. For instance, I perceive that its response to Russia's complete invasion of Ukraine has been notably better than its reaction to the Yugoslav Wars. Would you agree?
👍
Also we care more. We think we have to do more now than we thought we had to during the Yugoslaw wars. This increased expectations also increases the feelings that it's not enough, when it ultimately doesn't lead to success (victory of Ukraine). The same reality can be interpreted in very different ways, not only the facts on the ground matter but also how we think about them.
But shifting the expectations isn't pretty and easy either, because we remember our past goals with Russia's war against Ukraine, and if we back down, it feels like a loss, even though in the end we still have saved Ukraine from getting completely absorbed by Russia.
I think the next step is to consolidate the pro-European political forces within Ukraine. I think after the war, no matter how it will end at the frontline, the most important thing is to prevent Ukraine from becoming a new Taiwan, or a new Hungary. It's important to look at the Ukrainian mood and prevent it from turning against the West or the EU and prevent it from siding with Russia politically after all. I see a real danger there that disillusioned Ukrainians might switch sides in a few years. Russia will definitely construct a myth that it was the West that pushed Ukraine into this war.
I think the key problems are:
1) Professional expertise in the West has been mortally wounded by its politicisation and monetisation over the past 23 years. The media also contributed this massively by following party lines without neutral questioning. The worst of this was the Iraq War and the unrealistic trauma of the Afghan intervention. It was mainly the cynicism of this use that convinced me that Putin's manoeuvres in 2021 and early 2022 would not result in an invasion. I was completely wrong and it was the 'cry wolf' experience plus my ignorance of how poorly Putin was informed and how his own motivation worked that created this issue.
2) The West has been cursed by machine politicians devoid of common sense or ideology and motivated by a cynical desire for power. As a result voters are de-motivated, because politicians have failed to address the issues that matter to them, because those politicians have only followed the concerns of the elite who finance their campaigns. In reaction we have populists like Trump who gain popularity by saying they will address those concerns. The result is a total divorce between managerial elite classes and working classes with the former imposing their will on the latter with predictable resentment. Until we find politicians who can bridge that gap with determination and eloquence, the mess will continue. The Covid crisis was an example of weak politicians using fear and fake reliance on science with suppression of opposing viewpoints (rather than taking on those arguments with logic and evidence) - this showed arrogance and laziness of huge proportions.
We need honesty in the West to tell us we are at war with Putin albeit a Cold War and we need to gear our economies accordingly. At the moment Putin still sees only weakness and that is incredibly dangerous. If we have a stalemate cease-fire in Ukraine, Putin will simply re-arm and have a crack at the West in another area and this could provoke an utter disaster.
Thanks to you Vlad we have intellectual tools to see this more clearly.
💯
I am scared...I totally admit it. Globalization, the internet, growing populations and the growing divide between ultra wealth and sustainable income have made people become residents and not citizens. The demarcation between residents and citizens ( your concept which I have taken to heart) is born out of fear. This attitude kills off democracy. People just want to be "ok" and they don't care how to get there. It is a very turbulent time to come and yes, I'm very worried.
Residents come from places where democracy hasn't worked. Do you think they'll make their new homes better democracies?
I am not sure I agree with you Vlad on democratic decline being the main driver of poor Western policy with regards to specifically Ukraine. It is definitely an important factor right now, as the full scale war is drawing to the end of its second year and it is easier for populists to sow distrust and use cheap slogans to reduce democratic capital. But at the same time at the beginning of the full scale invasion the public support was unanimous and it was easy to define a strategy with Ukrainian victory and act on it. It wasn't done because of the views of the politicians in the Western capitals, not because of lack of public trust. One might also remember 2014, when nothing was done in regards to Ukraine and Syria, when there was no real policy that resulted in disaster. Back then, public discourse wasn't as toxic. I agree that it is harder to have a proper foreign policy with democratic decline at home, but it is very possible and at the end of the day it is up to the politicians in power to try their best. The real problem, I feel like, is the lack of accountability in Western democracies. Disastrous decision making never results in any penalties for politicians and the only way to hold them accountable is through massive public outrage, which is not a mechanism that can be applied to foreign policy without very high stakes in play.
I am outraged!
Very glad to be bailing water with this beautiful community!
It is hard to keep up hope when you feel that democracy must win every time in order to survive whereas undemocracy only has to win once. The further the last world war recedes into the past the more that horror is forgotten, and the conviction of "never again" recedes with it. You realize that the best laws or constitution cannot protect peace and democratic order if the majority is either indifferent or works actively against it. I always thought that the simple (and wrong) solutions to complex problems is what appeals to people, but we see more and more that populist agitators offer no solutions at all and still attract a bigger and bigger following. Still, all is not lost, so let's all do what we can.
Very sobering Vlad, but maybe needed to be said.
Vlad, thank you for your words🙏🏼. Today, on the third anniversary of the worst attack to the Capitol by a mob organized by the former president of my country, I’m feeling under the weather because he has not yet faced justice, but giving up is not an option, so tomorrow I will start my activism again, to help candidates that will support democracy and its institutions.
He's going to win the next election. As a European, your country is a mess, and Trump is the least of your concerns.
People actively avoid America these days. It's not a go-to destination for many in Europe these days.
Everywhere is riddled with crime and poverty.
I agree completely.
Right on!! That's the only way we can change it!!
A day that will live in Hyperbole
As a foreigner it seems to me that your present President is a complete failure, targeting Trump does not change that but it does divert attention from your present problems.
😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣 Holy s***!
It seems as though we shouldn't need experts to tell us that it's in US interests to support Ukraine to victory. It seems like the sort of thing that anyone should be able to see.
Then there's the inevitable march of regress of our institutions, which still sounds to me like an epistemologically-equal mirror to the inevitable march of progress that a lot of people like to imagine.
Ukraine will Lose the war for simple fact that most western countries expect Ukraine to Buy / Pay for their weapon systems rather than receiving them for free. Ukraine was expecting a WW2 style Lend-Lease program of free military aid for this War of Attrition but western countries are only sending a token amount of weapons which will lead to Ukraine’s defeat in the long run.
Sugar coating of: "We are f*!" :(
We, "the West" will have to help one day in the future, with all our might. We're just not bright enough (yet). As usual, pain will school us.
Dürrenmatt, in "Die Physiker": "A story is only thought through to its end unless it has taken its worst possible turn."
Honestly, I am wondering since I was twenty why we never even discuss the question in what kind of world would we like to live provided our bellies are filled enough. That's almost 40 years ago by now. Even the arts (read: Hollywood) mostly just constructed threats to scare us, but to what goal should we save ourselves? And so, we don't. Religion told us the real show starts behind the curtain, no wonder we're done.
I guess "we" should even think about stopping the last countries from using fossile fuels... by force (after we made "our" homework). Because laws of Nature constitute a dictatorship.
You are saying support for Ukraine requires support for what in the countries that 'still use fossil fuels?' Because you lost me. . . Turning support for Ukraine into an Ingsoc like totalitarian new broom to crush 'agw deniers' is to condemn the tacit support Ukraine is recieving in my opinion, and is a bit of a black ugly thing to be honest. This is happening in the USA. The Democrats are having a tantarum because the GOP expects the Democrats to submit to quid pro quo wrt their domestic policy sacred cows. The Democrats are clinging to their sacred cows. You see how supporting Ukraine is no longer the top priority of the Democrats? This reminds me of the early weeks of the Russian invasion where the war took on a terrible life of its own and metastisized every hour into something bigger and more awful by leaps and bounds.
That s an interesting philosophical proposition you put here. And I think you are right. Im glad I m a Christian (follower of Jesus) and therefore know much about what's going on behind the curtain (the spiritual world), what we do and who we are when we ourselves want to be in contro, or we think we arel. But also how it s gonna end, and not in a fatalistic way.
@@andreverwoerd1378Exceptional claims need exceptional evidence and we're waiting 2000 years now.
Same with Santa. Also: Why the religion you were randomly born into? I find that unacceptable.
I m not born into my faith. I chose because I saw/see the truth in Jesus' words. You cannot make this up like you write a fairy tale.
@@AndreasDelleske But you can agree to disagree. In the end we ll see who was right or not (Pascal).
@@andreverwoerd1378 Our options aren't limited to Christian God or no god. The choices are limited only by all of the available permutations of the concept of God. Pascal knew this to be the case, and made clear his wager required additional justification that the only valid God was the Christian God. What even is the point of offering up a proof for the Christian God that requires that I prove the Christian God to make it valid?
Thank you Vlad. This video means a lot to me.
I am grateful.
How can I say this nicely? Well, I‘m afraid we have to teach political education and critical thinking in schools again properly and effectively. I‘d also plead for teaching scientific thinking.
I‘m afraid this generation will recognize danger no sooner as danger knocks personally at their door and threatens them directly and physically.
Thank you Vlad for your explanation. This is the underlying root cause and the only medicine for establishing a healthy political society however to my opinion.
Another point of discussion I suggest is how does an overall aging society decide? What are their priorities in life? What is the likely outcome of democratic decisions in an aging society? Special focus on the will to change and develop.
Which generation, actually? I know as a chronically online person from the opposite end of the globe, my perception might have nothing to do with reality, but from what i'm seeing the level of political awareness and thought in young millenials and zoomers from North America is sort of scary high compared to what i'd expect.
Also i don't know if critical thinking is maybe a little overrated and passion and compassion a little underrated? I used to be way into "critical thinking" maybe 15-20 odd years ago. But when you have such uhhh pardon me bulwarks of Facts and Logic which obviously Don't Care About Your Feelings, maybe "critical thinking" has run its course, and feelings are exactly what you need.
@@SianaGearz i mean the coming generations that will attend schools and universities. You have to teach them how to recognize manipulation/propaganda. As you know it works mostly with half-truths and creating emotional outrage about a created meaning that is per se not true or not exact or not diversified. It works with judgement and blame based on wrong assumptions. I very much support that compassion and awareness gets more important in this world. What I am talking about however is abuse of people by creating outrage over false assumptions that were deliberately created and are far from reality. That is why it is crucial that you recognize it when someone tries to manipulate. That also means mind and emotion and knowledge in balance.
@@SianaGearz bc my answer disappeared I’ll try again 😏: the generation who has to be threatend personally and physically to believe smth AND act on it is mine (X and older). The generation that I suggest to be taught how manipulation works is the one that will be pupils/students next. I also wanted to point out, that while I support compassion very much, we have far too little in our societies (yet), I very strongly oppose abusing emotions by manipulation. There are techniques to effectively manipulate someone, like NLP (which can also be used in therapy, but id say mostly it is abused). Manipulation mostly works with halftruths concluding from these to the next halftruth (number of reps varying) and concludes with a straight out false statement/pseudo assumption, additionally worded in way that provokes upset/outrage etc. Another way we see often nowadays is accusing the opponent of more or less exactly what the manipulator him/herself does. Like RF often claims they never go after civilian targets, only Ukr does that. Or they were about to attack us, so they forced us to do a preemptive strike (attack) blabla. Or Ukr is planning to blow up Kahovka damm etc etc. Another popular technique is the slippery slope argument: e.g. if we let smth continue (like that - whatever) we’ll soon be doomed (drastic irrational consequence). Little examples Im sure you know, but unfortunately many fall into that trap again and again. And RF is a very special specialist with that 😏
@@Gazer873 I actually have for some reason done a course in hypnotherapy, got an alternative practitioner certificate :D that i'm not putting to any use whatsoever, but from my point of view and experience here, NLP is not a thing. People believe what they have chosen to believe. I can make someone raise their arm and do some gestures without them noticing that they were doing it, but it's a parlour trick, i'm not actually changing someone's mind. I can tell you a story but whether it works, depends on your willingness to go with it.
I think emotionally mature people recognise emotional manipulation. Just like people mature in rhetoric recognise rhetorical manipulation of the kind you speak. I don't think one skill is complete without the other.
@@Gazer873 Apropos disappearing replies, well i have that problem as well in this thread apparently. :( Not sure whether it's going to pop back up or whether i need to reword it somehow. I can't even think what sort of filter i might have hit, i thought everything i said was perfectly inoffensive.
To what extent do you think the democratic backsliding can be attributed to social media and shortened attention spans?
I would add that in America and maybe even in the West people are getting tired of all the ribbon cutting but no finished bridges. We have all these commitments and problems that are piling up on us, we hear about all the solutions to these problems but we never see it fully resolved. We never reach the “War is Over” moment. If citizens don’t get to feel the completion of the first national task (JFK saying let’s land on the moon and then we did) then why would they want to move on to another even bigger task.
The "climate" goals to be completed long after these politicians are out of office are especially irksome. "We know nuclear power is unpopular so we assume that civilization can be carbon neutral in X decades using solar panels and windmills. We hereby sign this treaty that ignores reality and makes us look good even though we are ignorant of energy engineering and even math."
@@AstroGremlinAmerican The climate goals will and can never be completed by government. That is because governments under the control of the legacy system and the climate goals are only achievable by utter disruption of the legacy system. Free enterprise working outside of the present order will achieve and far exceed all climate goals. This is actually being done as the governments fiddle their thumbs. There are good mathematical models that show that solar can and will (because it is cheaper than anything else) take over. The engineering is solid.
Personally, whilst I have travelled and worked in much of the world to paraphrase Chamberlain....quite frankly Ukraine is a country far away I know little about....but support for Ukraine is much more black and white.....Big country invades a Small country which on the balance of probabilities leans towards the 'values' of most of the member states of the EU and the small country puts up a bloody good fight....and hence since this country is not far far far far away like Bolivia or say Angola.....then assist the small country with a great deal of assistance....Realpolitik....
I feel like there is a lot of delusional thinking at play. People don't want to look at the facts of the situation and are stuck in a mindset fostered in 2001. Part of this is that america or the west is always bad in every military activity, due to lies about the iraq and afghanistan wars. We did actually find WMD's, we didn't steal oil, Bush didn't do 9/11 and so on, and terrorists and Saddam were obviously a real threat. 50 countries got involved precisely due to this. Saddam not only admitted to having WMD's but threatened to use them against his neighbors, and an entire city, Halajbah, was poison gassed, as well as the marshes were most the food of the middle east was grown was drained and poisoned by him. This is the reason for the destabilization of the middle east. Nonetheless, some it was transferred to the west or america, and this has ever since created a sense of distrust about western governments.
The hard reality is the left has no-one to blame but themselves for this, willingly promoting ridiculous propaganda at the time. But the left also was unwilling to provide lethal aid to ukraine when they were first invaded under obama and biden, and Trump was the first to authorize javelines to ukraine, which he got impeached for as the left called it a "quid pro quo". The left removed McCarthy, the Republican speaker of the house from power, right as he was going to authorize aid to ukraine. Congress has approved aid that might actually change the course of the war. Biden has single handedly banned HIMARS, long range weapons, and numerous other forms of aid to Ukraine, and only recently approved a few dozen tanks and IFV's, as well as F-16's, when what Ukraine really needs are F-35's which are both stealthy and can come in any language as they have fly-by-wire systems. After 2 years of war Biden finally allowed a few dozen F-16's to go to ukraine which won't make any difference and HIMAR missiles with their ranges SECRETLY shortened after congress approved them. The key advantage of long range missiles is so Ukraine can take out russian artillery. It not only is responsible for 85% of casualties, virtually all of russia's ground defense and all the gains they've made, but for shelling entire cities in to oblivion. You take that out, and ukraine could win the war in a months, with HIMARS specifically designed to beat artillery given its' long range, difficulty in detection, faster firing and cluster munitions which means a higher probability of hitting the target even in entrenched positions. It's also important to remember Biden removed sanctions off of Russia and allowed the nordstream pipeline construction to continue, something Trump blocked, within about the first week in office.
But we get endless waves of crap against Trump or Republicans, who are not in office, and this happened while Biden was in power who still has blocked this aid, and whom he was pressured by, via progressives in congress. Although the media is trying to shift the blame to Republicans, it's transparently not the case. You can see the new york times or other run articles about how ukraine should surrender, both right after russia invaded kiev and now 2 years later in the war. The reality is not as cut and dry as people like and it's been almost impossible to get past stalemates. Even despite all that, the U.S. has sent 5 times the aid of Europe who is the most likely to benefit from Russia being stopped in Ukraine and being unable to advance in to poland or the rest of Europe. Europe which is far more left-leaning makes big promises it doesn't deliver on. Europe is still buying 50% of it's gas and oil from Russia, and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. And Europe refuses to spend more on it's own military's, which Republicans and Trump have demanded all the way back in 2017. The problem is that the obvious issue looking us in the face is ignored, that many in the west are outright sympathetic to putin, and are blocking it for this reason. Many just want this to go away and to pretend it never happened and keeping buying their oil from Russia like it's 2010.
thehill.com/policy/defense/3762042-us-secretly-modified-himars-for-ukraine-to-prevent-kyiv-from-shooting-long-range-missiles-into-russia/amp/
www.politico.com/news/2021/06/18/white-house-ukraine-military-lethal-weapons-495169
www.axios.com/2021/06/06/zelensky-biden-ukraine-russia-nord-stream-pipeline
www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/10/25/progressive-caucus-retracts-ukraine-letter-00063310
www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-firm-ceo-behind-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-source-2021-05-19/
I am wondering, if there still is a 'we' in the west.The older I get the more difficult the decision how to vote becomes. Most parties in my country have some intentions I support, but every party has other intentions I do not want to support. When I was young, it was more kind of 'us against the others', sometimes my side gaining the majority, sometimes the others. Now there seems to be no longer a chance to 'win' because I find myself in a small segment of people who agree on most issues, which never can gain majority. If I am voting I always vote for a some politics with which I disagree. It seems like many of those with whom I disagree (compete?) being in a similar situation.
I think that generates the environment for populists' success, because they at least virtually create the illusion of a simple 'us against the others' with a chance to win. But those victories are meaningless, because they usually don't affect our real lives positively. Brexit seems to be an example.
Yep, there's a "we". And it's not the people.
@@W_Bin Can you describe the "we" more explicitly? Maybe by a list of examples? Or by excluding those who are not 'us'?
If I watch the USA, they seem only to feel as 'we' when they look at China.
The EU is kind of 'we' as we struggle to get along together. I am very fond of that. But inside the nations?
Vlad suggests some very promising directions, we could take to become 'us', i.e.:
- defend our democratic institutions
- show interest in the feelings of those, who don't share your political positions.
@@arminthaller7284 The people who tell the public what to think. And who do the things that the public don't want.
The main problem to me is that we don't want to risk Russia losing. In fact I'm convinced that if Western countries West of Poland were forced to chose between Russia taking Kiev and Ukraine taking Crimea, they would rather allow Russia to win. We just don't know how to handle the nuclear blackmail.
We're still in the Cold War mindset, where it was understood that even though the nuclear threat was always implicit, it would never be made overt save if either power was threatened with destruction. We don't know how to handle a mafia state that threaten nukes whenever they don't get their own way.
You hit the nail on the head here. My feelings are understood now.
Why Russians Support The War and Why Putin Can't Give Up | Ep.2 Dr. Jade McGlynn
From Italy here. It IS happening: people being getting bombed by artillery in muddy trenches in Europe, in 2024. But politicians let us live in denial and we fail those who fight for us.
Its not in North American strategic interests to maintain the post ww2 American system that protected Europe and fostered German delusion and weakness. Or so i think. And it is also an anomaly for North Americans of various ilks to be interested in Europe or respect it. French Canada reacted to the French revolution with disgust and had NO respect for France or Europe after. British protection of the Roman Church in Quebec after the conquest also bought aquiescence. The Church retained the vast land grants of Louis the Fourteenth and the Oleans regency, to this day in fact . And ran education and health care till the 1960s. George Washington famously in his farewell address warned against involvement with Europe. Canada became insependent in 1867 at the end of the liberal high water , an era of free trade and something more analogous to the American post WW 2 system and classical late 19th Mercantilist imperialism, Joseph Chamberlain s imperialism. French Canadians fought as volunteers in the papal armies as the house of savoy and radical liberalism took over Italy. It was seperate from the Canadian state. We avoided All colonial wars just as we avoided the colonial wars of the American post WW2 system except Afghanistan. Canadian participation in the Boer war was via Lord Strathconas light horse raised primarily in the ranching region of SW Alberta in the North West Territories and paid for by lord Strathcona personally. He was high commissioner for Canada ( ambassador ) to Britain and was embarrased by Canadas refusal. Enterence into that war would have strengthened French Canadian nationalists and Bourassa at the expense of Prime Minister Laurier s liberals who also bid for French support. We fought in existential wars for Britain in 1914 and 1939 with Grudging french Canadian support which rebelled at conscription . None of this was understood by UK politicians except maybe the Kings and a few exceptionally prescient people like Churchill. The USA became involved in WW One because of the exceptional ignorance and arrogance of post Bismark imperial Germany which intrugued in Mexico and sank the lusitania. President Wilsons life as an academic at Harvard and Princeton also gave him an interest and respect for Europe never shared by the North American populace. FDR is a different story. But again the stupidity of our repulsive enemy , at Pearl Harbour is what forced us into war.
The American system no longer serves North American interests , no one Democrat or Republican will sustain it anymore. And its utterly absurd that countries as wealthy and sophisticated as Germany can t defend Europe. Putin knows Germany well , he is not a fool and he despises Germany in the same way Hitler did. And he is not wrong to despise them. As Margaret Thatcher said of the continentals " they are weak , very weak". She meant morally corrupt and deluded in the same way that lead to Kaiser Wilhelm and Hitler. If Germany wants to degrade itself and be a slave of Putin , we should not save the wretched place yet again. But Americans and Canadians will fight if attacked we are dangerous we have a public morality and fearlessness which a repulsive cowardly slave like Germany doesnt have. And that is the issue. And it is wholly misleading to refer to the west as a single entity and rather insulting to imply common values between North America and countries like Poland or Hungary.
In a way a real democratic country have never existed. Communism also not. The ideas I like. Goverments are for the most directed by people with power. The more I look at Ukraines goverment the more I believe they are pupits to. It looks like the Ukraine people want to win the war, but not its goverment. Sometimes it looks that they are helping the Russians. The Russians have done so much against the USA in the history and Ukraine does not exploid these simple kind of facts. Trump can get away with almost everything while most people would be behind bars for having done just one single thing he did. The whole Corona thing. Sweden was hammered because they did not have a lock down. all the demonstrations and what people wanted, that did not help to change things. I can imagine the mistrust in goverments and why autocratic countries getting stronger. It gives people a direction, something to believe in even if it is bullshit and there is action instead of talking around and saying or doing nothing. Lying and keeping secret s has become so normal in politics. It is almost impossible to trust them again. Still there are so many western companies in Russia. I guess this is also one of the reasons that the western countries do not want Russia to loose completely. The money again. (My longest comment ever :) Keep up the good work!
Vlad, it was always drip fed relief. Just enough to bleed Russia. But not enough for a Ukrainian victory. Russia will take far more now than they would if negotiation had happened earlier.
I disagree about experts too...we need to take a variety of views....I was no expert in COVID, but I knew the strategy was insane.
Experts don't exist without many influences such as ego, tribal influence, being too close to see the wood for the trees, group think etc.
This has happened time and time again and it's why the distasteful rise of populism has occurred.
I think the experts have become too safe. To afraid to rock the boats and their tenures in academia...so they're often redundant.
They're not battle tested anymore. People who see how the world works at a basic level, with as you acknowledge with the change in democracy, have been much more accurate than the " experts" hanging into old tropes.
It's the so called experts not been brave enough , too comfortable. Trump is a sign of " the experts" failure.
It's the arrogance of these experts that has caused the distrust.
Here's an example. Ask " an expert" in agriculture about the use of pesticides and they will tell you they're fine and essential.
Ask the bees and the people with autoimmune diseases and you get a different answer.
The betrayal by academia is why our democracy is being destroyed and is allowing our democracies to be destroyed.
The " experts" allowed Iraq to happen. That was a genuine " rusting" of our decency and democratic strength.
The experts caused this!
You need to define "undemocratic politician;" you are not actually behooved to do so, because I already know what you mean by the term. But what I mean by the term and what you mean by the term almost certainly do not align, and I love democracy far more than you do.
The "undemocratic politicians" began their march on our societies as early as 2015 and they have continued, in legion, for all these 8 years, to advance their project: the New Totalitarian Tribalist movement. It would seem that you are probably aligned with them, though you imagine yourself to be a champion of democracy.
And THAT is this "crisis" of which you speak in its true form.
Dear Vlad,
A great deal to take in. How to cope? Back to psychology 101, the brain can only take in so much at a given time. I look at your home. Piano and lots of books. A clue. Learning. Well, a great many do not read so they rely on not great thinkers but social media... and cannot process, or deal with our reality. I am educated and struggle, really struggle. Our socities, i believe, do not actually promote inclusion. Some people have it intrinsically, but many exploit. Ignorance is not bliss, but i would argue anxiety is worse for most.
Anyway, this is not the place, and i am not a great thinker.
Keep doing what you do.
obtuse
Im sooo angry about how effective my country is when it goes after petty crime like riding open transport without ticket, consuming drugs, trespassing...,
but how compleatly incapable it is with any serious matter like actully reducing carbon consumption, supporting our allies and frinds with a capable military, enforcing the laws online...
One can only love this country with a broken heart.
And people who do actully love it, know wich country im talking about!
I am not so sure about the whole "democratic decline" argument as far as Europe goes. What has happened is that the generation that had direct experience with WW2 is dead. The shared WW2 experience was the glue in the solidarity within and between European countries in the post-war period. The increased immigration in the past 30 years has allowed political factions to tap into populism in Europe. That does not mean that people crave far-right-parties, it means that they gravitate towards whatever faction clearly states a willingness to impose limits on immigration and also give some hopes of a re-industrialized Europe (which isn't really possible without more investment in automation). Europe is helping Ukraine, but NATO is based on air-superiority, so Europe does not have the production capacity to give Ukraine overwhelming firepower using conventional ground based troops. The US has more ability to increase capacity than Europe in the short term. The war lines are not moving because of unprecedented enormous mine fields that cannot be cleared efficiently without local air superiority. NATO cannot give Ukraine air superiority as anything more than air-parity will give Putler a green light within his own population to use nukes. As such, this war is doomed to run for a long time, and the best thing we can do with any degree of certainty is to do whatever we can to help Ukraine survive with as few human losses as possible until Putler is weakened at home. The biggest danger here is that the Ukrainians may become demoralized. The only obvious solution is to let the unoccupied Ukraine into NATO and defend it collectively and continue the sanctions/taxation of Russian exports/services/trading-partners.
We seem to have forgotten that the EU should be responsible for strategy in the EU, with other countries supporting them, rather than; Why is the West not doing more?
My point being that currently everyone seems to think that the USA is responsible for leading all military forces, stratagies, wars everywhere, with unlimited support and logistics. Which is not possible. As it is also a democracy and thus at the vagaries of domestic politics.
That does not mean the USA wont help, but it should come down to regional or local powers providing the majority of force, manpower etc, and the USA providing support.
Currently Ukraine is relying on the US, so is Taiwan, and South Korea, and Israel, the forces in the Red Sea.
Were I an adversary, my strategy to defeat the US would be to stretch them so thin that the american people say, enough is enough. Fight your own wars.
I find it very annoying when Western democracies project such weakness. We forget that western democracies were the result of revolutions, the French Revolutionary wars, and before that Magna Carta, the English Civil War etc. Peace for its own sake traps many in autocracy that want democracy. So then we have a lobby in the US that is worried about the "collapse of Russia", and that it might create a vacuum that China would fill. So this is staying our hand. In Europe, part of it is that politicians dont want to have the tough conversations Churchill had in WW2 when he said "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, sweat and tears". They take the easy way out and don't tell the people that defence spending needs to be more of a priority, as this competes with other priorities like health spending, social services etc. In some countries, cradle to grave welfare states, and what in France is known as the "Social Model" are themselves secular religions. But Sweden and Finland have woken up. I think a key difference in Scandinavia is that there has long been a consensus that high taxes are an acceptable price to pay for the cradle to grave welfare state. That probably makes rearmament there more feasible (and Finland is already well armed and has 1 million reservists.
Thanks, Vlad! I sure hope you are wrong about Trump having another chance at the US Presidency.
I dont see how you can discuss "democracy" as some abstract reality that can exist out side our national history and institutions or how you can equate us with continentals. As to the details of the USA situation Ziehan understands them and you do not. The parallel constitutions of the Anglosphere are not going to be over thrown. We are going home after playing an international role that has become obsolete more so for North America than Britain herself. The only deep sympathy for Europe that exists in North America is from the coastal elites who were corrupted by re engagement with Europe after the 1850s. If there is any memory of Europe in the populace its of a failed evil place our gt gt grandfathers escaped from. Its alien. Ziehan is absolutely right to point out the instability of the Democratic party and contempt with which the pro European internationalists are regarded even by other components like organized labour. And he is right to point out how disliked Biden is and Trudeau is similarly despised. The massive spending on dysfuctional tech like electric cars ( which provide opening for our Chinese enemy in Mexico) are absurd . We will vote against them. Barrach Obama if anything was more repulsive and destructive than Trump and his German style pullisanimity gave us capitulation to Putin in 2013 . But the republican party can be rebuilt. Its a transition . When things re emerge on the other side the coastal elites will be isolated from power , there will be a bi partisan consensus to fight China hold the Pacific and Arctic and withdraw from regions of no value to us like the Black Sea or eastern Mediterranean or the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Britain is a question mark. I want her to survive and prosper but it maybe impossible to raise much interest about Britain in America. England absolutely needs to cultivate relations with the Irish Republic and Scotland , extra land and resources will help England survive climate change and a disrupted world. The small peripheral countries like Ireland are more important to Britain after the end of the USA world order and the probable failure of the EU and Britain needs relations with Scandinavia and Canada. If it helps defend the Pacific its a friend . But minor countries like Britain or Canada can not dictate to the giant USA and these bizarre countries like Germany and France do. There is an etiquette to being a junior partner in an Empire which Japan understands and Britain must learn.
Hello! There is a very well know 'expert', academic and lecturer. Prior to and for a short time after Ukraine 2022, he got a lot of play. He was wrong. He would not retrench. Now, he is a has-been that has done a lot of damage. Regards What kind of spert is an expert?
France is making more artillery shells, ramping up production, for Ukraine. This does not concur with the premise of this video. Australia is supplying an electronic reconnaissance aircraft, along with 100 support staff, plus some armoured personnel carriers called bushmasters.
What we need to do, is make all society's to listen to experts as advisers.
I believe, in the West, we don't anymore like advices, don't value experience and knowledge from experience. "Youth is da s...",is how the society thinks. Older persons are not to listen to. In that, I see the problem for the West. Politicians are better if they are young and don't obstruct as older persons sometimes do. The society of the West wants the easy way forward, wants to here good not reality. That can be seen in finance, in politics, in media, in culture, in school world and elsewhere.
So, accept knowledge by experience and the way of "hard struggle for good future" is what we have to make the highest value again.
I can understand that people want quick solutions, but it destroys the western world.
I think the EU political leaders are afraid of the internal political consequences of trying to properly support Ukraine. At the presente moment the EU is on a very delicate economic situation. The breakout of the energy relation between the EU/Russia was not the end of the world but it was not painless either. The general energy policy and this rushed energy transition made things worse. The most energy intencive industries were forced to relocate to other countries with better access to cheap energy (Asia / Americas). The US Inflation Reduction Act has hurt the EU greatly and competition with China is making things more dificult for EU industries. The EU basically is passing through a deindustrialization process. There is also social unrrest due to migration. The housing crisis does not help either. The sad reallity is that the EU cannot provide Ukraine with what it needs to win without investing a significant amount of resource into it's own militar industrial base. This would require the EU to backtrack from many policies, increase taxs and diverge resources from other areas. This would put additional pressure into the average european and would not be popular at all. This could increase the apeal of many alternative parties, including extreme rightwing parties. I think the most notable example would be Germany AFD, but we saw changes already happening on other countries such as Czechia that elected a pro-russian gov. I think many politicians in the EU look at this and are afraid of losing of their positions if the economic situation get worse.