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It is interesting, that we sit here, far away from russia, thinking about how brave this vanilla man is, to just register himself as a candidate for presidential election. What a crazy political scene, where merely registering oneself for candidacy in election can have potentially lethal consequences FROM THE STATE.
After watching the video last night, I saw two interviews with Mr Nadezhdin today on CNN and the BBC. He said his aspirations are to end the conflict with Ukraine, to build good relations with the rest of the world and to re-establish democratic institutions in Russia, including a properly functioning parliament, an independent judiciary and a free press. He made this sound achievable although the BBC interviewer pointed out several times that he wasn't going to win. He said that, even if he didn't win, it would be a first step on the road to defeating Putin and that he was certain that Putin wouldn't rule for six more years. Maybe I'm easily fooled, but to me he seemed a genuinely good and brave person, and I just hope that he and his family survive the election.
What I liked about him is that he's smart enough to understand (and most importantly say it) that it's not really about him. It's about social forces he happens to represent at the moment
@@VladVexlerChat Love you mate, but my request is more about quality control than content which I find fascinating and informative. However. As a former video editor I need to bring to your attention the need for you to exercise your editing skills to flatten out the audio peaks of your mouth smacking. It drives me crazy. It has been commented by others in the past. Maybe as you go through the process of ridding your audio content of the result of this peccadillo, an awareness, a burgeoning conciousness may develop that may reduce the number of these aural incidents in the future, which of course would be a delightful result for us all. Your devoted and appreciative listener.
Thank you for providing rare example of clear analytical view from the outside. Setting aside regime structure in which I only have sketchy knowledge, Imho, you seem to perfectly detect the essence of supporters' viewpoint. Especially, the idea that support for Nadezhdin became the least risky way of opposing war and regime in general. Sending my best regards from Moscow.
Vlad was born in Russia (USSR) and is a native Russian speaker / reader. While he is a westerner, he has much better understanding of Russia than most western experts.
Very good point on the West not having a Russia strategy. We have presidential elections in Finland this week, and while of course Russia and Ukraine have been the #1 topic in all of the interviews and debates, it is only about how we deal with the different aspects of Russia's actions, not so much about the overall strategy. We have wishes and scenarios, there is of course military preparation for both deterrence (which is already a bit more on strategy) and obviously for the unlikely but still real chance of the war spreading. By proxy, helping Ukraine is a part of the strategy. But we need still goals, heck, we need discussion about the goals. Then we will need a strategy to achieve the goals. But it's impossible to have a strategy without goals.
Idk might sound insane, but think we have reached a point of escalate to descalate. I feel if the European powers came together made some short sharp air attacks that made meaningful changes in Russia as in destruction of ability to create or supply their warmachine. This would shock the Russians and we would be proactively holding the power rather than reacting.
@@murphy7801we can't launch air attacks, that is an unambiguous cause for war, and would be met with retaliation (rightly). What we can do is supply an airforce to Ukraine, which is underway, at somepoint this year F16 will arrive in Ukraine along eith trained pilots. There's every chance the first deployment of them may be a very decisive week. And since each day of exposure of those aircraft to ground based air-defence allows time to develop counter measures, it wouldn't be surprising to see them held back until one big attack that won't be decisive, but could be very dramatic.
I wholeheartedly thank you even before watching this! The existence of this man made me extremely curious, but info is so hard to get and noone in my info bubble covered him yet.
they did it because she began raising to prominence prior to being registered as a candidate and therefore starting to collect signatures. nadezhdin looked a lot safer. i'd go as far as to wager that were it not for her quick raise that gave russians an injection of hope, nadezhdin would never see the kind of support he is getting now.
Authoritarian and totalitarian regimes are well advised to let a handful of independents occupy seats in relative comfort. Apart from North Korea, most do. It's not always just for propaganda reasons. They can quietly let the regime know what happening outside of party circles. In Poland, one of them ended up running the government.
when you control the government, you need an opposition to get a quick blacklist of dissenters and enemies of the state as well as the pulse on control.
There is no picture of the guy in the video, plus his name is not in the description. If you happen to not know exactly who this video is about, you are forced to try to guess how this Russian name is spelled and google it. I think this channel could grow much faster if you made the content more accessible. This content deserves a larger audience.
Could Nadezhdin be used by the Putin regime to get a list of names of people who oppose the war and the regime? Presumably, these signatures can be cross referenced against a citizens' database. They can see the demographics of the opposition supporters (Age, Gender, Location.....) and maybe carry out some well publicized arrests / forced mobilizations that would send a message that supporting anyone other than Putin is not a smart idea.
I don't think so Here we have lots of talks about the war (not "operation") in the social media, and if the government wants, it can catch them, but it doesn't. 100k is a large amount of people you know. We have lots of UA-camrs "discriminating against Russian army and policy" and they are not very troubled. At least, it's more than legal, it's our right given by the constitution.
@@longandshort6639 man you sure? I watch those guys every day, many of them are outside but many aren't They just have "foreign agent" status that doesn't really make their life more difficult
If a narcissist feel that he's in full control it does'nt matter if people like someone else better. Liking the other is translated by the narcissist to liking him (like a film director taking credit for the actors good acting (if the actors are unaware the better - what a skillful director)). Breaking the control piece by piece should make a difference.
At least one third of my English language comments are removed by YT (completely independent of the topic or content) and I really doubt this platform is pro-anything. IMHO, it's just poor programming in combination with UA-camr negligence. In my case, I suspect the problems were triggered by the critical, yet perfectly polite comment I posted about 10 years ago on a very popular, yet objectively flawed shed building tutorial that seemed to have positive praise only. A couple days later it was gone and I'm almost certain the comment was removed by the author, after which the YT started monitoring me "more", meaning more of my comments were placed in "Held for review" section on the channels' management tools (YT Studio), and that section is largely ignored by majority of creators, especially if they're large and have no time to review all suspicious comments. Another thing are dislikes. It seems, if sufficiently large amount of users dislike the comment, it may also be subject for dismissing it "for review" or increasing the monitoring level for that particular user. All of that creates a snow-ball effect that YT hasn't been able to control. I may be wrong, of course.
The fact that Nadezhdin is surprised at any kind of movement towards (for) him as a figure speaks volumes. As if to say that maybe their "hope for the future" no matter how deformed isn't buried The Foundation Pit
When it comes to contemporary Russia Vlad, your commentary always comes across as exceptionally insightful, cogent and valuable. One question I would be delighted to see you address in a future segment, is raised by you at the 3:28 where you identify the "two pools," and in particular the "second pool." You say "We've gotta run an election that looks sufficiently like an election," by which I'm confident you mean "an election that has the superficial appearances of being free and fair and legitimate, i.e., truly reflective of the majority of opinions in the society. While I would not question or doubt that there is a motivation on the part of Putin to attend to this "pool," it also strikes me as an extraordinary paradox. On the one hand, Putin seems to have many of the characteristics of an absolute ruler: enormous wealth and (setting aside the corruption and inefficiency throughout the society) the capacity to control or extract wealth from the society; an apparently loyal circle of security and top-level subordinates whose "loyalty" is probably a mixture of fear and shared interest; the capacity to put into law effectively any decree he sees fit; almost certainly access to whatever creature comforts or personal indulges he chooses. And yet, he is concerned with maintaining this facade of a legitimate election. The two principles both ring true, but they seem to be contradictory and I suspect it has something in particular to do with the unique set of norms and values around which the ruling class and the various lower level classes transact. It would be wonderful for you to do a video that explains this contradiction, and it may well require multiple videos!
Stalking horse. If he was not in some way controlled by the present regime, with perhaps the purpose of 'testing the water' for an 'about face' by Putin, then he would never have been allowed to have public exposure. As it is, he is still expendable.
She started too bright that it scared the Kremlin. If she was a nobody like they thought she'd be who is harmless, they could allow her into the next stage. Meanwhile they saw Nadezhdin as a clown who can't be taken seriously.
Let's see if Nadezhdin's supporters know how to write their names, or he'll be banned for spelling mistakes... Bottom line, in Russia you can criticize (a tiny bit), but not organize.
I agree, but please consider who you are trying to politicize: the Russian majority. As always best to start with проницательность a.k.a discernment. Russian вешают свои проблемы на другого человека (don't take responsibility for their lives) because they have been taught пофигизм (better not to care). So the real question is how do you go about starting to teach Russians that it is in their interest to care about their actions, to make choices, and to be responsible for those choices?
Frankly, the fact that Nadezhdin is even still alive is baffling and confounding, and grounds for speculation and suspicion. I don't know whether to think he's a honey trap for dissidents as some have speculated, or whether the Kremlin just views him as a weak opponent who can be easily regulated to a token "opposition". The kind of guy who can be easily shouted down and trashed on tv. I would hope the latter turns out to be the truth.
Thanks Vlad. Your key message about strategy and politicising Russia was, as usual, excellent and on point. Of course, when Nadhezdhin appears on Kremlin state TV, he is sole opposition speaker in a crowd of Kremlin mouthpieces, so one purpose is to show that opposition to the war and Putin is the view of a small and eccentric or stupid minority, thus discouraging Russian viewers from straying from the herd. There are risks for the Kremlin in letting him run. It is an opportunity to reinforce the state propaganda message but the risks for them are greater. The Kremlin can stage pro-Putin events when necessary and Putin will get 150 million votes, while Nadhezdhin will get minus 10 million, and there are lots of windows available when needed. But the greater the number of people who sign for Nadhezdhin or support him openly, the less dangerous it is for anyone to join that, so it could become a snowball, which would be hard to control.
Shout out to @russianmediamonitor, daily clips from Russian state TV with English subtitles. Like Vlad's channels, should have many more subscribers...
Much of Vlad's content addresses this matter, though not in a directly prescriptive manner. He offers thoughts for us to consider, learn from, and decide for ourselves. That is true politisation.
@@wendylafolle Thank you for your explanation. Keep up the effort!. I think a problem is the lack of a dot on the horizon. I remember "We" were going to ban "war" "famine" "various Boms", nowadays it´s all about making the wealthy wealthier. I am afraid there will not be enough wealthy people to keep up "democracy"
Does this situation have something to do with the candidate who was asked if he was planning on winning upon which he declined and said he valued his own life too much? Was he supposed to be the 'credible' candidate before the interview went viral?
We have been complacent with Putin. As long as his ambitions didn't interfere with our economic interests we gave him a pass. Crimea was a test, and we failed to the degree that we partnered in Syria. The 2022 invasion, however, threatened major resources that are essential for the global trade and development. As we responded and Putin overreacted with his external energy policy the masks fell off on both the West and the Kremlin. While the semblance of a legitimate opposition in Russia is better than none, it'll be the oligarchs who will ultimately decide the fate of the Russian Federation. Maybe it's them we should be engaging.
If he's allowed to run and accidentally wins legitimately against all odds,i'll be laughing for seven days straight. Thing is,people will be expecting him to be nobbled but everyday he isn't then this provides the elusive monster called hope to appear .If they nobble him at a later stage and destroy that hope then the wedge between putin and the people may split the rock. If they understand this then they may have to let him run and they may regret that. Look at zelensky, we were all moping about thinking that bastard poroschenko was going to get in again and continue to bleed ukraine dry then up pops zelensky from leftfield and gets a landslide victory leaving all the little piggies wondering what happened.
I don't think Kremlin will repeat Lukashenkas mistake, the repeat of what happened in Belarus in 2020, but in Russia is probably one of their biggest fears right now
Vlad, please comment on Girkin/Strelkov getting sentenced to a prison term. I need a good chuckle thinking about his dismal fate. Or am I wrong, could this be good for him after 4 years pass?
Our strategy can be the one that worked before: Russia (USSR) bad - arm up - arms race - russia tries to keep up but can’t - russia implodes. We’re safe.
you certainly could. one consequence is of course that we (ukrainians) would lose the war. the other outcome is that it increases the likelihood of russia actually invading, and for sure at least continuously meddling with internal politics trying to create the kind of situation that would be auspicious to conducting military operations in NATO countries. remember they don't need to win the war against NATO to cause massive destruction and gain an internal political "win". baltics also don't have the kind of strategic depth that ukraine enjoys. i would suggest to think carefuly about this strategy; i say that irrespective of the fact of my country needing your support, i'm also a Czech national and have plenty of friends in Eastern Europe - i would never wish they had to go through what we are experiencing now, not even the political destabilization that putin's regime so aptly applied to pressure us prior to the full scale invasion. noone in the West benefits if russian government is allowed to continue the way it is.
…when he will have listed all the family members who have voted for the anti-war candidate and sent all the males to the front, with no chance of returning, except in a sealed coffin.
Under what grounds can the Putin regime decide not to register someone? I have no doubt in their ability to come up with an excuse, but how do they get around the fact that the registration is backed by a certain threshold of signatures?
They're really anal about the required format. If you write something with a capital letter when it shouldn't be, then they can invalidate it. A simplest punctuation error, stuff like that.
I have a question on another topic, the future of democracy and its resilience against authoritarian and populist movements: Do mass protests like the ones seen in Germany matter? Are they a sign of backlash against a more and more brutalized public discourse or is this just void virtue signalling without any real meaning?
Dear Vlad, why does Russia or Putin feel the need to hold elections? He is the tzar, so what point / idea is being held up here? Why is this important?
Putin is "tzar" only because his circle allows him to be. But they want to also be in partial control. Plus they're delusional and genuinely think the majority supports them.
I was with you for the first 9 and a half mins, but then....well It seems that what you are (now) saying is he did it for "a bit of a laugh"...?? He never thought that he would get this far, and the good old boys in the Kremlin never thought that he would or might be any thing (threat) to take seriously. So know he has found himself in a situation that he wasn't quite prepared for (as was Trump??), and the back room boys have let some thing that they didn't think would get very far, go too far. Is that the jist of the other 16 min's or so. I would enjoy more piano playing in future...please
What sort of Russia strategy could the west have? Apart from bringing it to its knees economically which it is still trying to do. One assumes the CIA and possibly MI6 have been active in recruitment and attempting to foster a coup of some sort. But this is as far as it can go. The Ukraine war needs to end in Moscow but it cannot because Russia is full of nukes which have protected it from any accountability since it acquired them. Russia was never held accountable for its decades-long occupation of the Soviet countries or for its Stalinist evils. It’s never had its Nazi Germany moment and therefore retains its imperialist and lawless mindset. Solzhenitsyn at the end of The Gulag Archipeligo asks the question “Why was Germany allowed to prosecute its evil doers and Russia was not? What kind of disastrous path lies ahead of us if we do not have the chance to purge ourselves of that putrefaction rotting inside our body? “ Prophetic!
'What's ...'s advantage?' seems to be the guiding query in this speech. On the other hand you sound sad, when the human rights approach when dealing migrants probably has to be skipped. Question: What's the difference? Why don't you advice to investigate one's advantage in the situation created by migration? I seem to miss an important distinction.
He must attempt to make only appeals to emotions and instinct, not the intellect. The Russian rank and file are conditioned to only respond to those types of appeals. He should offer Putin and the Russian people a way out that can be seen as honorable, not surrendering to the West but rethinking Russia's path forward, and how to peacefully create more influence as a world power in the modern age.
@@MarincaGheorghe I just translated Zelensky’s words for you, you made your own conclusions. Sometimes you start a war of conquest and end up losing territory.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u So basically, Russians want some Ukrainian land and Ukraine lays claim to some Russian land. Wouldn't you say that in this context '91 borders would be a suitable compromise and a great way for Russia to save face?
Poor Boris, the opposition actor. Will he have to act the role of a political prisoner as well? Perversely, including the hepatitis, pneumonia, abuse, starvation, etc. etc. …not really a good gig. Slava Ukraini
I don't care what happens to Russia, as long as it's enough of a disaster to make the war a precedent that unequivocally advises future heads of state against depending too heavily on nuclear blackmail. Ten million excess deaths with no offsetting benefit would be about in the right ballpark. Iraq had about a million excess deaths following the US invasion, Russia has about three times the population, and Russia's demographics are skewed heavily toward the elderly, who have far more deaths for the same level of disaster. So I don't see how we can get by with an expected number of pointless deaths. Certainly the increment to long-term nuclear risk amounts to a much higher expected number of deaths, in any scenario where this isn't a disaster for Russia at least on a par with the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq.
What's his message the war is bad, we need to surrender cede the donbass and it's people to Ukraine, we need to submit ourselves to the international criminal court, we need to pay war reparations, well if this is the message then he has failed already before starting that's the truth.
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It is interesting, that we sit here, far away from russia, thinking about how brave this vanilla man is, to just register himself as a candidate for presidential election. What a crazy political scene, where merely registering oneself for candidacy in election can have potentially lethal consequences FROM THE STATE.
@@xlukas93 I'm detecting self-thumbing, which is not cricket.
Slava Ukraini 🎉
After watching the video last night, I saw two interviews with Mr Nadezhdin today on CNN and the BBC. He said his aspirations are to end the conflict with Ukraine, to build good relations with the rest of the world and to re-establish democratic institutions in Russia, including a properly functioning parliament, an independent judiciary and a free press. He made this sound achievable although the BBC interviewer pointed out several times that he wasn't going to win. He said that, even if he didn't win, it would be a first step on the road to defeating Putin and that he was certain that Putin wouldn't rule for six more years. Maybe I'm easily fooled, but to me he seemed a genuinely good and brave person, and I just hope that he and his family survive the election.
Certainly Brave !
It’s poetic that Nadezhdin is similar to the Russian word for *hope* (Надежда) sounds like Nadezhda
Karma at her best.
And his name - Boris, can be read as "Keep Struggling"
What I liked about him is that he's smart enough to understand (and most importantly say it) that it's not really about him. It's about social forces he happens to represent at the moment
Looking better, compadre! Hope you feel better. Thank you for the clarity. Great stuff.
Thank you thank you
@@VladVexlerChat
Love you mate, but my request is more about quality control than content which I find fascinating and informative.
However.
As a former video editor I need to bring to your attention the need for you to exercise your editing skills to flatten out the audio peaks of your mouth smacking.
It drives me crazy.
It has been commented by others in the past.
Maybe as you go through the process of ridding your audio content of the result of this peccadillo, an awareness, a burgeoning conciousness may develop that may reduce the number of these aural incidents in the future, which of course would be a delightful result for us all.
Your devoted and appreciative listener.
Must be my lucky week. 3 videos in a row. Nice to see you in good health Vlad.
Did you check his philosophy channel? :)
"Hope for the future!" was a slogan I saw him use which is also a pun on his name (surname is based on the russian word for hope).
Thank you for providing rare example of clear analytical view from the outside. Setting aside regime structure in which I only have sketchy knowledge, Imho, you seem to perfectly detect the essence of supporters' viewpoint. Especially, the idea that support for Nadezhdin became the least risky way of opposing war and regime in general. Sending my best regards from Moscow.
Влад реально описал картину с 99% точностью. Я так понимаю он читает российское СМИ?
@@zoroastris8155 ага
Vlad was born in Russia (USSR) and is a native Russian speaker / reader. While he is a westerner, he has much better understanding of Russia than most western experts.
I feel even more sorry for Duntsova.
Same. I think she's brave. She sure knew the risks. So that counts for something
Yekaterina Dunstova urged her supporters to leave signatures for pro-peace Presidential hopeful Boris Nadezhdin.
IN CASE Nadezhdin is allowed to run, Duntsova will be his spokesperson.
she wasn’t allowed so don’t be sorry, she supports nadezhdin
@@sir_arsen What does that mean, "she wasn't allowed"?
Very good point on the West not having a Russia strategy. We have presidential elections in Finland this week, and while of course Russia and Ukraine have been the #1 topic in all of the interviews and debates, it is only about how we deal with the different aspects of Russia's actions, not so much about the overall strategy. We have wishes and scenarios, there is of course military preparation for both deterrence (which is already a bit more on strategy) and obviously for the unlikely but still real chance of the war spreading. By proxy, helping Ukraine is a part of the strategy. But we need still goals, heck, we need discussion about the goals. Then we will need a strategy to achieve the goals. But it's impossible to have a strategy without goals.
Idk might sound insane, but think we have reached a point of escalate to descalate.
I feel if the European powers came together made some short sharp air attacks that made meaningful changes in Russia as in destruction of ability to create or supply their warmachine. This would shock the Russians and we would be proactively holding the power rather than reacting.
@@murphy7801we can't launch air attacks, that is an unambiguous cause for war, and would be met with retaliation (rightly).
What we can do is supply an airforce to Ukraine, which is underway, at somepoint this year F16 will arrive in Ukraine along eith trained pilots. There's every chance the first deployment of them may be a very decisive week. And since each day of exposure of those aircraft to ground based air-defence allows time to develop counter measures, it wouldn't be surprising to see them held back until one big attack that won't be decisive, but could be very dramatic.
Thank you as always for your wonderful insight... much appreciated ❤
My privilege !!
I'm sorry if I'm being a bit Cold War in mind, but doesn't collecting signatures just allow the FSB to keep tabs on Putin's potential opposition?
Yes
I wholeheartedly thank you even before watching this! The existence of this man made me extremely curious, but info is so hard to get and noone in my info bubble covered him yet.
Very interesting Vlad. Thank you.
Thank you Vlad for your great explanations. Good health to you! Lots of love.
Hello beautiful Vlad, this is community😁
Mr Vexler, I hope you are well and not ill. I have just discovered your channel and like it very much. Your intellect is refreshing and enjoyable.
Good, glad someone is saying this
Thank you Vlad!
They were quick to disallow that young lady who wanted to run. I hope she stays safe.
they did it because she began raising to prominence prior to being registered as a candidate and therefore starting to collect signatures. nadezhdin looked a lot safer. i'd go as far as to wager that were it not for her quick raise that gave russians an injection of hope, nadezhdin would never see the kind of support he is getting now.
@emom358 he was registered as a pre-candidate on behalf of a political party which was easier from the precedural point of view.
Always good listening to Vlad
Authoritarian and totalitarian regimes are well advised to let a handful of independents occupy seats in relative comfort. Apart from North Korea, most do. It's not always just for propaganda reasons. They can quietly let the regime know what happening outside of party circles. In Poland, one of them ended up running the government.
Good morning, Vlad, thank you for these chat videos. ❤
Gave my sign for him today
Pathetic imitation of action. Shame on you.
@@romany8125 pathetic imitation of an intellectual remark. Shame on you.
@qseminq nice one, I also signed for Nadezhdin several days ago 🙏
@@romany8125 Pathetic NAFO troll.
@@dmplague it was not intellectual. If you saw one there, I feel really sorry for you. My remark was purely observational.
Who had Feb. 8? Rejected by Central Election Commission.
when you control the government, you need an opposition to get a quick blacklist of dissenters and enemies of the state as well as the pulse on control.
paranoia
There is no picture of the guy in the video, plus his name is not in the description. If you happen to not know exactly who this video is about, you are forced to try to guess how this Russian name is spelled and google it. I think this channel could grow much faster if you made the content more accessible. This content deserves a larger audience.
The guy was a regular guest on state TV. He is controlled opposition.
Thank you
Could Nadezhdin be used by the Putin regime to get a list of names of people who oppose the war and the regime? Presumably, these signatures can be cross referenced against a citizens' database. They can see the demographics of the opposition supporters (Age, Gender, Location.....) and maybe carry out some well publicized arrests / forced mobilizations that would send a message that supporting anyone other than Putin is not a smart idea.
Nice stream, as always Double V. 😊
Thank you Vlad m8!
👍Thank you, Vlad.
Couldn’t Nadezhdin just be a honeypot to identify citizens who are prone to dissenting, and therefore put on watch lists or even more?
Paranoia.
Most likely putin was afraid of being compared to brezhnev... so he tried to create a bipartisanship 😅
I don't think so
Here we have lots of talks about the war (not "operation") in the social media, and if the government wants, it can catch them, but it doesn't. 100k is a large amount of people you know. We have lots of UA-camrs "discriminating against Russian army and policy" and they are not very troubled.
At least, it's more than legal, it's our right given by the constitution.
@@zoroastris8155those Russians making those comments against Putin and his war are outside of Russia.
@@longandshort6639 man you sure? I watch those guys every day, many of them are outside but many aren't
They just have "foreign agent" status that doesn't really make their life more difficult
Great and coherent video....
Thank you ❤
Thank you 🌻
If a narcissist feel that he's in full control it does'nt matter if people like someone else better. Liking the other is translated by the narcissist to liking him (like a film director taking credit for the actors good acting (if the actors are unaware the better - what a skillful director)). Breaking the control piece by piece should make a difference.
Ekatarina Dunsova also good for Russia but they got rid of her too, such a shame.
appreciate the ongoing discussion of politicization/depoliticization, enhanced by filtered blue light
That was very good Vlad.
Thank you Neil!
And one more comment censored by YT. Always when I write comments unfavorable to Russia. Is YT pro-Russian?
At least one third of my English language comments are removed by YT (completely independent of the topic or content) and I really doubt this platform is pro-anything. IMHO, it's just poor programming in combination with UA-camr negligence. In my case, I suspect the problems were triggered by the critical, yet perfectly polite comment I posted about 10 years ago on a very popular, yet objectively flawed shed building tutorial that seemed to have positive praise only. A couple days later it was gone and I'm almost certain the comment was removed by the author, after which the YT started monitoring me "more", meaning more of my comments were placed in "Held for review" section on the channels' management tools (YT Studio), and that section is largely ignored by majority of creators, especially if they're large and have no time to review all suspicious comments. Another thing are dislikes. It seems, if sufficiently large amount of users dislike the comment, it may also be subject for dismissing it "for review" or increasing the monitoring level for that particular user. All of that creates a snow-ball effect that YT hasn't been able to control. I may be wrong, of course.
As always, thanks for
🌻
The fact that Nadezhdin is surprised at any kind of movement towards (for) him as a figure speaks volumes.
As if to say that maybe their "hope for the future" no matter how deformed isn't buried The Foundation Pit
Hmmmm 😊. Thanks 👍😊
Putin probably wants that signature list. It’s a list of Putin’s next round of cannon fodder.
How long before he falls out a window?!
When it comes to contemporary Russia Vlad, your commentary always comes across as exceptionally insightful, cogent and valuable. One question I would be delighted to see you address in a future segment, is raised by you at the 3:28 where you identify the "two pools," and in particular the "second pool."
You say "We've gotta run an election that looks sufficiently like an election," by which I'm confident you mean "an election that has the superficial appearances of being free and fair and legitimate, i.e., truly reflective of the majority of opinions in the society.
While I would not question or doubt that there is a motivation on the part of Putin to attend to this "pool," it also strikes me as an extraordinary paradox.
On the one hand, Putin seems to have many of the characteristics of an absolute ruler: enormous wealth and (setting aside the corruption and inefficiency throughout the society) the capacity to control or extract wealth from the society; an apparently loyal circle of security and top-level subordinates whose "loyalty" is probably a mixture of fear and shared interest; the capacity to put into law effectively any decree he sees fit; almost certainly access to whatever creature comforts or personal indulges he chooses. And yet, he is concerned with maintaining this facade of a legitimate election. The two principles both ring true, but they seem to be contradictory and I suspect it has something in particular to do with the unique set of norms and values around which the ruling class and the various lower level classes transact.
It would be wonderful for you to do a video that explains this contradiction, and it may well require multiple videos!
Stalking horse. If he was not in some way controlled by the present regime, with perhaps the purpose of 'testing the water' for an 'about face' by Putin, then he would never have been allowed to have public exposure. As it is, he is still expendable.
Oh, the court jester!
There is an alternative: what Mark Feygin offered: alternative elections.
just take Ekatarina Duntsova as an example what happens to candidates
She really had some crucial mistakes
She started too bright that it scared the Kremlin. If she was a nobody like they thought she'd be who is harmless, they could allow her into the next stage. Meanwhile they saw Nadezhdin as a clown who can't be taken seriously.
@@zoroastris8155 What mistakes?
@@julia___n she swapped the numbers of date (mm.dd instead of dd.mm)
Russian Central Election Commission: "Honest ELECTIONS - an event to OVERTAKE the government! We will not allow it to happen" :P
Let's see if Nadezhdin's supporters know how to write their names, or he'll be banned for spelling mistakes...
Bottom line, in Russia you can criticize (a tiny bit), but not organize.
I agree, but please consider who you are trying to politicize: the Russian majority. As always best to start with проницательность a.k.a discernment. Russian вешают свои проблемы на другого человека (don't take responsibility for their lives) because they have been taught пофигизм (better not to care). So the real question is how do you go about starting to teach Russians that it is in their interest to care about their actions, to make choices, and to be responsible for those choices?
Vlad Vexler went fully into Utilitarianism full scale here.
His last name Nadezhdin literally means Hope. Ironic.
In a normal year this would not be a problem but with over 300000 combat wounded or killed it is fast becoming PROBLEM.
Ya you don’t bring a knife to a gun fight! Ya? Sure!
When, how, and will he.
надежда means "hope".
.....so Nadezhdin has Putin worried ?
Frankly, the fact that Nadezhdin is even still alive is baffling and confounding, and grounds for speculation and suspicion.
I don't know whether to think he's a honey trap for dissidents as some have speculated, or whether the Kremlin just views him as a weak opponent who can be easily regulated to a token "opposition". The kind of guy who can be easily shouted down and trashed on tv.
I would hope the latter turns out to be the truth.
kremlin intended to use him as laughing stock, “weak liberal” role, doesn’t mean they made a deal with him.
Thanks Vlad. Your key message about strategy and politicising Russia was, as usual, excellent and on point. Of course, when Nadhezdhin appears on Kremlin state TV, he is sole opposition speaker in a crowd of Kremlin mouthpieces, so one purpose is to show that opposition to the war and Putin is the view of a small and eccentric or stupid minority, thus discouraging Russian viewers from straying from the herd. There are risks for the Kremlin in letting him run. It is an opportunity to reinforce the state propaganda message but the risks for them are greater. The Kremlin can stage pro-Putin events when necessary and Putin will get 150 million votes, while Nadhezdhin will get minus 10 million, and there are lots of windows available when needed. But the greater the number of people who sign for Nadhezdhin or support him openly, the less dangerous it is for anyone to join that, so it could become a snowball, which would be hard to control.
Was worried he was another Sobchak but he seems legit enough so he’s got my support
What would Nemtsov do?
He would be in exile or in jail.
Shout out to @russianmediamonitor, daily clips from Russian state TV with English subtitles. Like Vlad's channels, should have many more subscribers...
I agree. Everybody should watch it to see the appalling propaganda and blatant lies that are broadcast every day.
Thank you.
Those signatures will be disqualified because they weren't for Putin 😂
Sounds like he is useful as a thermometer. I don't think he'll he used as a Honeypot trap, but who knows with the goons in power.
He is basically a token decenter they use as a foil.
Shouldnt we start to think about how to adress "The depoliticsed blob in the middle" in the west?
Much of Vlad's content addresses this matter, though not in a directly prescriptive manner. He offers thoughts for us to consider, learn from, and decide for ourselves. That is true politisation.
@@wendylafolle Thank you for your explanation. Keep up the effort!. I think a problem is the lack of a dot on the horizon. I remember "We" were going to ban "war" "famine" "various Boms", nowadays it´s all about making the wealthy wealthier. I am afraid there will not be enough wealthy people to keep up "democracy"
Go Boris Nadezhdin!
Does this situation have something to do with the candidate who was asked if he was planning on winning upon which he declined and said he valued his own life too much? Was he supposed to be the 'credible' candidate before the interview went viral?
Next Ilyushin.
who the heck told you that nadezhdin is against war?! it's a muppet show, not elections
Why no comparison to the woman TV anchor who tried to create a candidacy?
At best, Nadezhidin is a putin with a human face, according to what he was saying in his last interview with Latinina.
kinda feels like mao-strategy, to loosen the grip a bit, let all the putin-critics show themselves and then crack down even harder on them.
Change medicine
We have been complacent with Putin. As long as his ambitions didn't interfere with our economic interests we gave him a pass. Crimea was a test, and we failed to the degree that we partnered in Syria. The 2022 invasion, however, threatened major resources that are essential for the global trade and development.
As we responded and Putin overreacted with his external energy policy the masks fell off on both the West and the Kremlin.
While the semblance of a legitimate opposition in Russia is better than none, it'll be the oligarchs who will ultimately decide the fate of the Russian Federation. Maybe it's them we should be engaging.
NO WAY.
@@untje Your primitive, intellectually underdeveloped Kremlin propaganda bores people.
If he's allowed to run and accidentally wins legitimately against all odds,i'll be laughing for seven days straight. Thing is,people will be expecting him to be nobbled but everyday he isn't then this provides the elusive monster called hope to appear .If they nobble him at a later stage and destroy that hope then the wedge between putin and the people may split the rock. If they understand this then they may have to let him run and they may regret that. Look at zelensky, we were all moping about thinking that bastard poroschenko was going to get in again and continue to bleed ukraine dry then up pops zelensky from leftfield and gets a landslide victory leaving all the little piggies wondering what happened.
I don't think Kremlin will repeat Lukashenkas mistake, the repeat of what happened in Belarus in 2020, but in Russia is probably one of their biggest fears right now
Vlad, please comment on Girkin/Strelkov getting sentenced to a prison term. I need a good chuckle thinking about his dismal fate. Or am I wrong, could this be good for him after 4 years pass?
Our strategy can be the one that worked before: Russia (USSR) bad - arm up - arms race - russia tries to keep up but can’t - russia implodes. We’re safe.
you certainly could. one consequence is of course that we (ukrainians) would lose the war. the other outcome is that it increases the likelihood of russia actually invading, and for sure at least continuously meddling with internal politics trying to create the kind of situation that would be auspicious to conducting military operations in NATO countries. remember they don't need to win the war against NATO to cause massive destruction and gain an internal political "win". baltics also don't have the kind of strategic depth that ukraine enjoys. i would suggest to think carefuly about this strategy; i say that irrespective of the fact of my country needing your support, i'm also a Czech national and have plenty of friends in Eastern Europe - i would never wish they had to go through what we are experiencing now, not even the political destabilization that putin's regime so aptly applied to pressure us prior to the full scale invasion. noone in the West benefits if russian government is allowed to continue the way it is.
5:35
…when he will have listed all the family members who have voted for the anti-war candidate and sent all the males to the front, with no chance of returning, except in a sealed coffin.
Under what grounds can the Putin regime decide not to register someone? I have no doubt in their ability to come up with an excuse, but how do they get around the fact that the registration is backed by a certain threshold of signatures?
A common tactic is to have the electoral comission invalidate signatures under arbitarily imposed pretexts (i.e. the signature is illegible)
They're really anal about the required format. If you write something with a capital letter when it shouldn't be, then they can invalidate it. A simplest punctuation error, stuff like that.
There's a lot of smacking going on.
I have a question on another topic, the future of democracy and its resilience against authoritarian and populist movements:
Do mass protests like the ones seen in Germany matter? Are they a sign of backlash against a more and more brutalized public discourse or is this just void virtue signalling without any real meaning?
in Germany we have big demonstrations pro democracy and against far right wing fascists.
Dear Vlad, why does Russia or Putin feel the need to hold elections?
He is the tzar, so what point / idea is being held up here?
Why is this important?
Because putin believes that he is popular (and fake elections convince him in it) and we have citizens who also believe that the elections are legit
Putin is "tzar" only because his circle allows him to be. But they want to also be in partial control. Plus they're delusional and genuinely think the majority supports them.
See for example Vlad's video titled "Shy Putin announces 2024 Presidential bid", which talks about this.
Hello beautiful 😊
Kinda mafia- lol totally mafia
I was with you for the first 9 and a half mins, but then....well
It seems that what you are (now) saying is he did it for "a bit of a laugh"...??
He never thought that he would get this far, and the good old boys in the Kremlin never thought that he would or might be any thing (threat) to take seriously.
So know he has found himself in a situation that he wasn't quite prepared for (as was Trump??), and the back room boys have let some thing that they didn't think would get very far, go too far.
Is that the jist of the other 16 min's or so.
I would enjoy more piano playing in future...please
What sort of Russia strategy could the west have? Apart from bringing it to its knees economically which it is still trying to do. One assumes the CIA and possibly MI6 have been active in recruitment and attempting to foster a coup of some sort. But this is as far as it can go. The Ukraine war needs to end in Moscow but it cannot because Russia is full of nukes which have protected it from any accountability since it acquired them.
Russia was never held accountable for its decades-long occupation of the Soviet countries or for its Stalinist evils. It’s never had its Nazi Germany moment and therefore retains its imperialist and lawless mindset.
Solzhenitsyn at the end of The Gulag Archipeligo asks the question “Why was Germany allowed to prosecute its evil doers and Russia was not? What kind of disastrous path lies ahead of us if we do not have the chance to purge ourselves of that putrefaction rotting inside our body? “ Prophetic!
How do we know that he’s legit and not making deals with the Kremlin?
We will know after ~5 years, but know all we (Russians of opposition) have to do is to be proactive and hopeful
'What's ...'s advantage?' seems to be the guiding query in this speech. On the other hand you sound sad, when the human rights approach when dealing migrants probably has to be skipped.
Question: What's the difference? Why don't you advice to investigate one's advantage in the situation created by migration? I seem to miss an important distinction.
He must attempt to make only appeals to emotions and instinct, not the intellect. The Russian rank and file are conditioned to only respond to those types of appeals. He should offer Putin and the Russian people a way out that can be seen as honorable, not surrendering to the West but rethinking Russia's path forward, and how to peacefully create more influence as a world power in the modern age.
While pulling the troops back to the 2014 frontier. Then Russia can become Russia again and negotiate the path forward.
@@Ukie88 Ukraine wants borders for 91 years, even more. Zelensky makes references to parts of modern Russia in his recent statement on Unity Day.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2uyeah, sure we all forgot Ukraine started the conquest war, not Russia 😅
@@MarincaGheorghe I just translated Zelensky’s words for you, you made your own conclusions. Sometimes you start a war of conquest and end up losing territory.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u So basically, Russians want some Ukrainian land and Ukraine lays claim to some Russian land. Wouldn't you say that in this context '91 borders would be a suitable compromise and a great way for Russia to save face?
Poor Boris, the opposition actor. Will he have to act the role of a political prisoner as well? Perversely, including the hepatitis, pneumonia, abuse, starvation, etc. etc. …not really a good gig. Slava Ukraini
💛💙💜💙💛 🙂👍 🇺🇦 🌏 🇺🇸
I don't care what happens to Russia, as long as it's enough of a disaster to make the war a precedent that unequivocally advises future heads of state against depending too heavily on nuclear blackmail. Ten million excess deaths with no offsetting benefit would be about in the right ballpark. Iraq had about a million excess deaths following the US invasion, Russia has about three times the population, and Russia's demographics are skewed heavily toward the elderly, who have far more deaths for the same level of disaster. So I don't see how we can get by with an expected number of pointless deaths. Certainly the increment to long-term nuclear risk amounts to a much higher expected number of deaths, in any scenario where this isn't a disaster for Russia at least on a par with the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq.
What's his message the war is bad, we need to surrender cede the donbass and it's people to Ukraine, we need to submit ourselves to the international criminal court, we need to pay war reparations, well if this is the message then he has failed already before starting that's the truth.
The illusion of an opposition.