From what ive noticed, when a player starts betting small on the flop and then all of a sudden sizes up huge on the turn, they usually are trying to get people out of the pot and are afraid of getting sucked out on. The second i saw that turn bet, I was like 'he doesnt want a fourth club and/or he doesnt want the board to pair'. Whatever hand he has, he has to feel its the winning hand 'right now' to do that move which signaled either a straight of a low-mid flush. That being said, I would have treated the set like a 'full house draw' rather than a made hand, called the $360 with the implied odds BUT folded the river if the board didnt pair.
Agree that the big turn bet is intended to take down the pot before a nut-changing river, and usually indicates a nutted hand. But V's flop bet wasn't really all that small, at 2/3 pot, though perhaps it's still small in absolute size, and V could have bet full pot. I don't know how we can call this turn, though, when we're now not only losing to straights, but also flushes, and only going to boat up on the river about 20% of the time, and V might not pay us off when we do boat up. Even if V is somehow betting a worse set, a T or 9 on the river might make V quads, and we're just going broke with our boat. The range of hands we can beat here is just so narrow on the turn that I think we have to fold to this 2x pot sizing.
I remember walking into the Wynn right at the Ferrari dealer, turning left, and it was pretty close to that on the left. At the time, I was a 10-20 LHE reg at Foxwoods, so would usually play 8-16 at Wynn. They used $2 chips for it! Venetian when it opened, used $4 chips for 8-16. Some other places (Bellagio?) used $5 and $1 chips for it. I'd played enough 20-40 at Foxwoods to be familiar with the chip handling/stacks of 8-16 at the Wynn. I pretty well crushed the 8-16 game at Wynn anytime I was out there during the LHE era. Basically, from 2005-2010, any limit game you solidly beat and were completely comfortable with at Foxwoods, you could easily beat a half level to a whole level higher anywhere else, including Vegas. So, I should have been playing at least 15-30, but on a "working vacation" out there, I'd round down the stakes instead of rounding up. But I really liked the 8-16 with the massive number of $2 chips, and even the local regs and pros were pretty much fish to me at that game. I did play a half-decent amount of 15-30 at Venetian and Bellagio anyway. My favorite time was when I noticed just 3 regs playing 15-30 at Venetian, waiting for fish to arrive. A floor encouraged me to play them, but I declined. Then 3 rich ladies in gowns walked in and asked what game the guy recommended for them while waiting for their hubbies to come down and take them to a show or something. He recommended 15-30. To the dismay of the regs, I pretty much got myself seated before the ladies had chips. So their money basically got split 4 ways instead of 3. Only 1 knew the ranking of hands, I think. The money meant nothing to them, so it was a super friendly table, except that the regs wished I weren't there. The ladies played just over a half hour, hubbies arrived, and the table broke as soon as they were well out of sight. What vultures poker players can be! I should have felt guilty, but nope, I actually felt like a well-paid entertainer that time.
I played the poker room at the Wynn for several years; after they built Encore they moved it over there. It’s much nicer and larger now but it was a very active and good room at Wynn back in the day …
I couldn't think about a single bluff combo, I mean, no human would go nuts with Kc10d. Only a few overplayed hands like TT. I wonder if hero should consider folding the turn(!).
Hands with a high Club are indeed kind of unlikely. - Some hands that could make some sense on the Turn: 98s/86s/76s, or all underpairs ( Solvers love to use them in similar cases for bluffs) that have close to zero SD value on this board.
@@Pokershard The only ones that come to mind involve giving villain the case jack. Then he could have QcJx or KcJx. But hero blocks jacks so heavily I'm not inclined to give villain one. Honestly, this turn is not Bart's best moment. He even does the SPR math, but does not really connect with the idea villain has taken this sizing to set up a river jam. Furthermore, if villain is competent it's hard for him to go this ham without the K or Q of clubs in hand. Unless maybe this is 78cc. I'd probably fold the turn here. I get that hero has boat outs, but he is OOP. If the board pairs & hero jams, is villain paying off? Sometimes I suppose. But if board pairs & hero checks, villain should check back.
The hand wasn't played bad before the river imo. On the river I would fold anyway. From a GTO point of view is a call at small frequency. Anyway usually the live player underbluff the river and call loser pteflop. These two things together turn the call frequency on the river close to 0%.
befor i see the end of the hand im gonna make a decision on the river and im gonna fold, i just dont see any bluffs, maybe queens with a club? me having the jack of clubs makes me want to call but im too scared with his action and the straits with the flush out there, i could see him having ace with k or q of clubs turned into bluff to but i would let him get me on this. i would have prob played the hand the same way, possibly jammed on him on the turn because i have alot of equity even when i run into the strait ahd its hard to make a flush with my jack club, thats my assessment :)
If you assume he shoving the low end of the straight, then it’s fair to assume 10,10 and 9,9 would be in his shoving range, as well as A,A. The 9,9 and A,A net each other out. The combos that are value he beats and bluffs are, A,K of club (3), 10,10 (3), maybe J, K of club (1/2). It’s pretty close but it depends on the player. The main problem is that the players that are good enough to bluff here don’t do this with 10,10 or 9,9 and the players that bet 10,10 or 9,9 generally wont be bluff this spot and will check back river with pair missed flush
Right, haven’t been to Vegas since they moved the poker room, you could get a steak at the bar across from the room with the fat comps It was small and cozy back then They always ruin these rooms & the atmosphere, like at the Venetian
Preflop was only a bet by the hero. That means the villain could have pretty much all the club suited connectors in his range. Now if it was a 3-bet preflop, that changes things. The villain then 2x the pot on the turn, says low flush or straight and I don't want to see another card. You're going to pay big if you want to see it. Edit: He ended up having the K of clubs. So that big bet on the turn, doesn't really make that much sense, as you would think that it would scare away a lot of hands. The only thing calling are the big hands, Sets, straights, and flushes. With the K of clubs, seeing a 4th club would have been perfectly fine for him. Of course it would kill the action.
When the turn is the Ac, V knows he has the nuts, but may worry that hero won't pay off on a another flush card on the river, and hero could still fill up 20% of the time, so V's 2x over-bet is to get value from hero's worse hands, and charge hero's sets a premium to fill up.
My initial reaction is that this is a bad beat. JJ & KQ go to a flop of JT9. But my sympathy for hero is limited since he checked flop & then called that obvious turn bet. I mean... look at the sizing, it's perfect for a river jam. We are only 22% to fill up on the river & we are OOP. So if hero hits river he has to jam up front, because villain will check back on board pairing cards. Will villain call on a board pair? Maybe. But that has to bring our 22% down significantly since we will not always get paid when we win. Therefore, I think this is a trivial fold on turn.
I agree it's a trivial fold on turn, for the same reasons. That said, I think many opponents with a made hand (straight or flush) will call a river bet, even when the board pairs, especially when they have the nut straight (on a non-flush board) or nut flush. It's just too hard to put an opponent on a set that boats up when the board pairs on the end, and get away from a strong hand. I played a good example hand last night, against a terrible rec - he limp-flatted my raise pre (I had KhTd on BTN), then he donk-led 1/3 pot on flop of Qd3d4h, checked the Kd the turn (I checked back), then checked a board-pairing 3 on the river. I jammed on him for about 1.5x pot (he was short-stacked to start the hand), certain that my K's were best, and putting him on Qx. He tanked for a full 20 seconds before calling with the turned nut flush (Ad7d), saying "I have to call, I have no choice" before pushing his chips in, as if he was sure I made a boat on the river (I guess he may have been putting me on KK), but couldn't get away from his hand.
@@1vailchris I absolutely agree that many players will call the river. But not all will. Obviously we are hearing about this hand from "hero's" perspective, but we do hear how villain played. My feeling is that he's a good player. I love his aggression with the effective nuts. I love his turn sizing to set up an SPR of 1 for the river. So while I'm not saying it's a zero payoff if we hit, I'm saying we are 22% to hit but not 22% getting paid. I think 15% is generous. So I don't love putting in twice the pot on turn here. Better to get out cheap when villain will almost always have what he's representing: KQ, mostly with at least 1 club.
@@EllieBanks333 Oh, I'm in complete agreement with you about this hand in particular, and also agree that not all opponents will call river with a straight or flush when the board pairs. I think many will, though, depending on when they made their hand and the board texture versus our likely range. Like, if they check-called the whole way with a flush draw, and get there on a board-paring/flush-completing river, they're very unlikely to fold. But if they flop a flush on a monotone board, bet it, and get called, then the board pairs on turn, they bet again and get called again, they're more likely to fold to a huge river bet. In this hand, if we give V all the flopped straights and turned flushes, and hero calls a 2x pot turn bet, I'm honestly unsure if V is or isn't going to pay off on a board-pairing river. My thinking is that from V's perspective, hero's turn call indicates a stronger made hand, perhaps KhQh or QcJc, rather than 2P or a set. Not that I think hero should call the turn for this reason. He should still fold to this bet size. But if he does call, and does boat up, I think V is going to have a hard time putting him on a boat, as played. If I'm V and hero leads when the river pairs the board, I have to wonder if hero boated up, sure, but I'd also be worried about QcJc, and wondering if hero is possibly turning KhQh into a bluff, or if he's just bluffing with air, because on this runout, there really aren't any logical bluffs, but it looks like V has a straight or flush, and might fold to a big river donk when the board pairs. On that basis I might level myself into calling there.
@@EllieBanks333I think the difference is that there is still a chance that villain checks back on the river. He doesn't always bet on the river with his AQ or AK holdings, or maybe 9T and the one combo of JT checks back. It is a distaster though that we can't get more value from worse hands on this runout but I think there are still a decent amount of hands with great equity on turn that miss on river that we beat.
@@jeremyhahn3612 There is always a chance. When I saw villains turn sizing though I was pretty convinced that we were up against KQ with a club. It seemed apparent to me he was setting up a pot size river jam. But I guess we just saw this differently because I would have been shocked if V was holding T9 as you suggest. And JT is not only heavily blocked, but at best has the T of clubs. The simplest solution is usually correct. And in poker, when that solution is a prime hand, even more so. By prime hand I mean AK, KQ, QJ, JT. These are hands that will almost always be played to see a flop even when offsuit, unless there is extreme pre-flop action in front of them.
I C-bet that flop 100%. Sometimes you bet into the nuts, it happens. Not a reason to give up the betting lead and switch to check-call mode with top set. Even in hindsight, putting money in on that flop also turns out to have been better than putting money in on the turn or river. At that stack depth, unless I get a great tell or know the player completely, if I get raised on the flop, I'm usually shoving. At worst, hero is a 2:1 dog, at best he has villain crushed. If they don't have the nuts, they're guessing bigtime. Fell free to make a mistake if you don't have the absolute nuts and guess wrong.
i agree , you bet the flop there, too many bad turn cards, if he re raises you get it all in and if he calls i probably check the turn and see what he wants to do
10:24 I'd fold here. (Haven't seen reveal yet). R: Checking flop was a poor play. If he decided to call any bet, then he must've bet that amount beforehand. Then Turn: Turn call was even poorer decision than flop x/c. What's the point of calling here? If you call turn bet, then you must've called river brick bet, too. (Which is the case). If H was not beaten on flop, then Turn is definitely lost. If H was beaten on flop, then Turn beat him eve more! . Correct play: C-bet flop, and then go from there.
What could the hero do to minimize his losses in this particular hand? Did he misplay it? I'm not sure, I'm kinda 50/50 on most decisions on this one. I do well being patient but I have a hard time letting go of a good made hand. It's costing me money. Where could the hero find a fold here?
Hero could have c-bet small on the flop, rather than giving up the betting lead by check-calling. Once hero check-calls flop, he should fold turn to this 2x pot sizing.
Don’t like just check calling if youre 100% checking flop you need to have some c/r.2x pot bet at a live table is heavenly weighted to value but you still have some outs to boat. Fold river unimproved.
Really really surprised villian 2x pot the turn with the pure nuts and drawing to the pure nuts flush. Nice play though. Bet he put our villian on a lot of like AQ, AJ, A10 plus maybe sets and J10s
@@mrhumble2937 ya I think it’s a very bad play. Hard to get called by anything but a flush. Maybe the dunce straight especially 98cc. Sets might fold especially any but top set.
@@windy6455 It just depends on whether Villain is creative enough to find a sufficient amount of bluffs. If yes, then the bet size looks perfect, to get it in on the River comfortably. - And, if you fold every set and 2-pair you have outside the rare, occasional, straight against the bet: Gotcha! 😉 The main question for me would be what Villain does with TT/99, as those hands would prefer a small sizing ; - but I assume he mostly 3-bets with them pre.
First, the flop should be a bet or a check-raise. While the caller may not have any flushes, the other player isn't going to have many (if any) either. Is this the type of player that's playing K2 suited? Because if the player has KQ of clubs, betting the flop makes sense, but why make a double pot size bet on the turn? What are you getting called by? I would assume that most players are betting sets on this flop. If I don't have a flush on this board (on the turn) and my opponent calls a 2x pot bet, and they didn't bet the flop, I'm going to be worried that they have me beat; unless I have specifically the K of clubs. So really the only hand that the opponent can have that can play this way is KQ with the K of clubs; and it is possible that the hero player can have QJ of clubs (but not likely). So essentially every holding that the opponent could possibly have except for KQ with the K of clubs becomes a bluff. That's why I think betting or check-raising the flop is essential in most cases. You get a better idea where you're at in the hand.
x/r, why? If you're raising into nuts, you'll lose your guts@! If: 1) V has a combo draw (flush+straight) he is not folding your raise. Then when turn (Ac) comes, you still don't know where you're at. 2) V has nuts (KQ) then you do the math (about x/r).
I'm surprised that Bart agrees with calling this at some frequency even though I agree it's a good bluff catcher in theory. Kx and possibly Qx would make sense as bluffing candidates but there aren't any offsuit Kx/Qx that villain could be reasonably calling with that aren't already paired. Is a reg ever running this bluff with no relevant blockers?
A reg? Probably not. V would have to be a pretty bad rec player to play any 1P/2P or worse set this way when the Ac comes on the turn. V's 2/3 flop bet and 2x turn bet are repping super-thick value. I don't think anyone is doing that without a made hand or a blocker to the nuts, and probably not without a made hand which includes a blocker to the nuts, so V's line is screaming KcQx, assuming V would 3B pre with KcQc.
@@1vailchris Indeed: We beat no value. The relevant question for Villain on the Turn: Do we fold, all things considered, more than 66% of our Flop check/call range to his 2x pot size bet? If yes: Then he starts to print money with hands (without blockers) like 76s or 44. But, yes: In general the spot on the Turn is severely underbluffed. And, AQ could be a better calling hand than JJ: Idk.
however, if he checks 100% flop and check calls a lot being KQ Q8s 78s TT raises his check call range is too weak in that runout should call!? There are not that many intuitive bluffs, however if it is a decent player it might be a call.
This is not true. The poker room used to be in the Wynn well before Covid. It then went to the Encore, back to the Wynn during Covid, and now back to Encore.
I find the channel pretty focused on hero betting line and decision making. Some reveals are ludicrous but this is more of a product of the hand getting stuck in the head of hero to the point they want to review and discuss it.
I think if we're not going to c-bet this flop with top set, then we need to fold, if not on the flop, then definitely on the turn when V over-bets 2x pot. V won't be double-barrel bluffing often enough on this board texture to make this a profitable call on flop and turn, even with the Jc in our hand. When V flats hero's raise pre, his range is going to have a lot of KX in it, with a lot of KQ for a straight, and some KXcc for a flush. Even the worst opponents aren't going to continue barreling very often with T9 or AT.
@@windy6455 I'm saying we should probably just c-bet small on this flop as a way to pot-control, rather than check-call. If we bet small and get raised, we can comfortably fold flop against most opponents. But if we decide to check-call flop, we need to check-fold this turn. This check-call line doesn't make a lot of sense to me, unless we are absolutely certain V is bad enough to barrel with a worse hand than top set on this insanely connected board.
@@1vailchris I actually think check call is a fine play multi way. He has roughly 33% equity vs a flopped straight, more or less depending the club factor. Betting and getting raised fucking sucks. HU ya definitely c!, Maybe 3 ways too atleast if you’re not fully oop vs everyone. You’re forgetting his semi bluff candidates too. Live recs WILL double barrel sets on this board when checked to as well, maybe even two pair. They assume you’re check calling a draw or over pair or something. Turn call is questionable vs this size although I’m surprised he used this size with QK king of clubs. it’s hard for him to get called by anything worse than a flush.
@@1vailchris btw betting small as pot control especially on the flop is just NOT a thing. You check if you want to pot control. I forget how many saw the flop but imo super multi way in early position if you have a betting range here it’s like AQcc, QK, maybe AKcc, 89s especially with clubs. JQcc could maybe bet im not sure. Something like that. Basically hands that need to deny equity but aren’t hating life when raised they can comfortably call or even 3! (AQcc, AKcc, QK)
@@windy6455 _folding the flop with top set as a potential possibility?_ If he C-bet flop, and got raised, then it is a fold with certainty (not a "potential") loss.
The Caller: “It’s a check 100 here 😊”
Barts Thumbnail: “ITS A CHECK 100!!!!! 🤬🤬🤬😤😤😤”
🤣🤣😂😂
From what ive noticed, when a player starts betting small on the flop and then all of a sudden sizes up huge on the turn, they usually are trying to get people out of the pot and are afraid of getting sucked out on. The second i saw that turn bet, I was like 'he doesnt want a fourth club and/or he doesnt want the board to pair'. Whatever hand he has, he has to feel its the winning hand 'right now' to do that move which signaled either a straight of a low-mid flush. That being said, I would have treated the set like a 'full house draw' rather than a made hand, called the $360 with the implied odds BUT folded the river if the board didnt pair.
Agree that the big turn bet is intended to take down the pot before a nut-changing river, and usually indicates a nutted hand. But V's flop bet wasn't really all that small, at 2/3 pot, though perhaps it's still small in absolute size, and V could have bet full pot. I don't know how we can call this turn, though, when we're now not only losing to straights, but also flushes, and only going to boat up on the river about 20% of the time, and V might not pay us off when we do boat up. Even if V is somehow betting a worse set, a T or 9 on the river might make V quads, and we're just going broke with our boat. The range of hands we can beat here is just so narrow on the turn that I think we have to fold to this 2x pot sizing.
The Wynn poker room used to be by the Ferrari dealership on the Wynn side of the property... 5/10 is 1k min and 3k max
I remember walking into the Wynn right at the Ferrari dealer, turning left, and it was pretty close to that on the left. At the time, I was a 10-20 LHE reg at Foxwoods, so would usually play 8-16 at Wynn. They used $2 chips for it! Venetian when it opened, used $4 chips for 8-16. Some other places (Bellagio?) used $5 and $1 chips for it. I'd played enough 20-40 at Foxwoods to be familiar with the chip handling/stacks of 8-16 at the Wynn. I pretty well crushed the 8-16 game at Wynn anytime I was out there during the LHE era.
Basically, from 2005-2010, any limit game you solidly beat and were completely comfortable with at Foxwoods, you could easily beat a half level to a whole level higher anywhere else, including Vegas. So, I should have been playing at least 15-30, but on a "working vacation" out there, I'd round down the stakes instead of rounding up. But I really liked the 8-16 with the massive number of $2 chips, and even the local regs and pros were pretty much fish to me at that game.
I did play a half-decent amount of 15-30 at Venetian and Bellagio anyway. My favorite time was when I noticed just 3 regs playing 15-30 at Venetian, waiting for fish to arrive. A floor encouraged me to play them, but I declined. Then 3 rich ladies in gowns walked in and asked what game the guy recommended for them while waiting for their hubbies to come down and take them to a show or something. He recommended 15-30. To the dismay of the regs, I pretty much got myself seated before the ladies had chips. So their money basically got split 4 ways instead of 3. Only 1 knew the ranking of hands, I think. The money meant nothing to them, so it was a super friendly table, except that the regs wished I weren't there. The ladies played just over a half hour, hubbies arrived, and the table broke as soon as they were well out of sight.
What vultures poker players can be! I should have felt guilty, but nope, I actually felt like a well-paid entertainer that time.
Bart “I’m not sure you check 100% of the time” Translation “I’m sure you shouldn’t check 100% of the time” 😂
I played the poker room at the Wynn for several years; after they built Encore they moved it over there. It’s much nicer and larger now but it was a very active and good room at Wynn back in the day …
The villain played that hand masterfully, most the player pool is checking behind on the river for fear of value owning themselves.
It was in a hallway in the Wynn where all the slot players went to smoke. It was horribly smoky.
It was in the Wynn back in 2009 I can tell you that much. It was definitely moved.
I couldn't think about a single bluff combo, I mean, no human would go nuts with Kc10d. Only a few overplayed hands like TT. I wonder if hero should consider folding the turn(!).
It's a trivial fold on turn
Hands with a high Club are indeed kind of unlikely. - Some hands that could make some sense on the Turn: 98s/86s/76s, or all underpairs ( Solvers love to use them in similar cases for bluffs) that have close to zero SD value on this board.
This is what confused me, there are no natural bluffs, bart doesn't even talk about what he could be bluffing with.
@@Pokershard The only ones that come to mind involve giving villain the case jack. Then he could have QcJx or KcJx. But hero blocks jacks so heavily I'm not inclined to give villain one. Honestly, this turn is not Bart's best moment. He even does the SPR math, but does not really connect with the idea villain has taken this sizing to set up a river jam. Furthermore, if villain is competent it's hard for him to go this ham without the K or Q of clubs in hand. Unless maybe this is 78cc. I'd probably fold the turn here. I get that hero has boat outs, but he is OOP. If the board pairs & hero jams, is villain paying off? Sometimes I suppose. But if board pairs & hero checks, villain should check back.
The poker room was at the Wynn when Encore was just a gleam in Steve's eye.
In the solved 4 live ranges JTs is 100% RFI. I think the flop is a Cbet fairly often. 40% or so
The hand wasn't played bad before the river imo. On the river I would fold anyway. From a GTO point of view is a call at small frequency. Anyway usually the live player underbluff the river and call loser pteflop. These two things together turn the call frequency on the river close to 0%.
Poker room was in Wynn, just inside the entrance from the parking garage.
befor i see the end of the hand im gonna make a decision on the river and im gonna fold, i just dont see any bluffs, maybe queens with a club? me having the jack of clubs makes me want to call but im too scared with his action and the straits with the flush out there, i could see him having ace with k or q of clubs turned into bluff to but i would let him get me on this. i would have prob played the hand the same way, possibly jammed on him on the turn because i have alot of equity even when i run into the strait ahd its hard to make a flush with my jack club, thats my assessment :)
If you assume he shoving the low end of the straight, then it’s fair to assume 10,10 and 9,9 would be in his shoving range, as well as A,A. The 9,9 and A,A net each other out. The combos that are value he beats and bluffs are, A,K of club (3), 10,10 (3), maybe J, K of club (1/2). It’s pretty close but it depends on the player. The main problem is that the players that are good enough to bluff here don’t do this with 10,10 or 9,9 and the players that bet 10,10 or 9,9 generally wont be bluff this spot and will check back river with pair missed flush
The wynn used to be right by the garage. Unlimited comps. 2006. Some good memories
Right, haven’t been to Vegas since they moved the poker room, you could get a steak at the bar across from the room with the fat comps
It was small and cozy back then
They always ruin these rooms & the atmosphere, like at the Venetian
Turn bet sizing was to set up perfect pot size jam, nuts all day long
Yes, poker used to be at the Wynn, but they moved it to Encore
It was in the Wynn right next to the Ferrari dealership
Preflop was only a bet by the hero. That means the villain could have pretty much all the club suited connectors in his range. Now if it was a 3-bet preflop, that changes things. The villain then 2x the pot on the turn, says low flush or straight and I don't want to see another card. You're going to pay big if you want to see it.
Edit: He ended up having the K of clubs. So that big bet on the turn, doesn't really make that much sense, as you would think that it would scare away a lot of hands. The only thing calling are the big hands, Sets, straights, and flushes. With the K of clubs, seeing a 4th club would have been perfectly fine for him. Of course it would kill the action.
When the turn is the Ac, V knows he has the nuts, but may worry that hero won't pay off on a another flush card on the river, and hero could still fill up 20% of the time, so V's 2x over-bet is to get value from hero's worse hands, and charge hero's sets a premium to fill up.
the poker room was in the wynn around 2009(and before), and likely for a bit after.
i was just thinking ive never played at the encore.
Hero playing with small stack coupled with sounding younger coupled with him checking flop leads to this aggro villain line
also the fact that villain flopped a straight
Yes… across from Allegro the Italian restaurant 🎉
My initial reaction is that this is a bad beat. JJ & KQ go to a flop of JT9. But my sympathy for hero is limited since he checked flop & then called that obvious turn bet. I mean... look at the sizing, it's perfect for a river jam. We are only 22% to fill up on the river & we are OOP. So if hero hits river he has to jam up front, because villain will check back on board pairing cards. Will villain call on a board pair? Maybe. But that has to bring our 22% down significantly since we will not always get paid when we win. Therefore, I think this is a trivial fold on turn.
I agree it's a trivial fold on turn, for the same reasons. That said, I think many opponents with a made hand (straight or flush) will call a river bet, even when the board pairs, especially when they have the nut straight (on a non-flush board) or nut flush. It's just too hard to put an opponent on a set that boats up when the board pairs on the end, and get away from a strong hand.
I played a good example hand last night, against a terrible rec - he limp-flatted my raise pre (I had KhTd on BTN), then he donk-led 1/3 pot on flop of Qd3d4h, checked the Kd the turn (I checked back), then checked a board-pairing 3 on the river. I jammed on him for about 1.5x pot (he was short-stacked to start the hand), certain that my K's were best, and putting him on Qx. He tanked for a full 20 seconds before calling with the turned nut flush (Ad7d), saying "I have to call, I have no choice" before pushing his chips in, as if he was sure I made a boat on the river (I guess he may have been putting me on KK), but couldn't get away from his hand.
@@1vailchris I absolutely agree that many players will call the river. But not all will. Obviously we are hearing about this hand from "hero's" perspective, but we do hear how villain played. My feeling is that he's a good player. I love his aggression with the effective nuts. I love his turn sizing to set up an SPR of 1 for the river. So while I'm not saying it's a zero payoff if we hit, I'm saying we are 22% to hit but not 22% getting paid. I think 15% is generous.
So I don't love putting in twice the pot on turn here. Better to get out cheap when villain will almost always have what he's representing: KQ, mostly with at least 1 club.
@@EllieBanks333 Oh, I'm in complete agreement with you about this hand in particular, and also agree that not all opponents will call river with a straight or flush when the board pairs. I think many will, though, depending on when they made their hand and the board texture versus our likely range. Like, if they check-called the whole way with a flush draw, and get there on a board-paring/flush-completing river, they're very unlikely to fold. But if they flop a flush on a monotone board, bet it, and get called, then the board pairs on turn, they bet again and get called again, they're more likely to fold to a huge river bet.
In this hand, if we give V all the flopped straights and turned flushes, and hero calls a 2x pot turn bet, I'm honestly unsure if V is or isn't going to pay off on a board-pairing river. My thinking is that from V's perspective, hero's turn call indicates a stronger made hand, perhaps KhQh or QcJc, rather than 2P or a set. Not that I think hero should call the turn for this reason. He should still fold to this bet size. But if he does call, and does boat up, I think V is going to have a hard time putting him on a boat, as played. If I'm V and hero leads when the river pairs the board, I have to wonder if hero boated up, sure, but I'd also be worried about QcJc, and wondering if hero is possibly turning KhQh into a bluff, or if he's just bluffing with air, because on this runout, there really aren't any logical bluffs, but it looks like V has a straight or flush, and might fold to a big river donk when the board pairs. On that basis I might level myself into calling there.
@@EllieBanks333I think the difference is that there is still a chance that villain checks back on the river. He doesn't always bet on the river with his AQ or AK holdings, or maybe 9T and the one combo of JT checks back. It is a distaster though that we can't get more value from worse hands on this runout but I think there are still a decent amount of hands with great equity on turn that miss on river that we beat.
@@jeremyhahn3612 There is always a chance. When I saw villains turn sizing though I was pretty convinced that we were up against KQ with a club. It seemed apparent to me he was setting up a pot size river jam. But I guess we just saw this differently because I would have been shocked if V was holding T9 as you suggest. And JT is not only heavily blocked, but at best has the T of clubs.
The simplest solution is usually correct. And in poker, when that solution is a prime hand, even more so. By prime hand I mean AK, KQ, QJ, JT. These are hands that will almost always be played to see a flop even when offsuit, unless there is extreme pre-flop action in front of them.
I C-bet that flop 100%. Sometimes you bet into the nuts, it happens. Not a reason to give up the betting lead and switch to check-call mode with top set. Even in hindsight, putting money in on that flop also turns out to have been better than putting money in on the turn or river. At that stack depth, unless I get a great tell or know the player completely, if I get raised on the flop, I'm usually shoving. At worst, hero is a 2:1 dog, at best he has villain crushed. If they don't have the nuts, they're guessing bigtime. Fell free to make a mistake if you don't have the absolute nuts and guess wrong.
i agree , you bet the flop there, too many bad turn cards, if he re raises you get it all in and if he calls i probably check the turn and see what he wants to do
Hilarious I just watched that Doug Polk clip vs Wesley. What an insane few streams
Turn over bet protects non-club holding straights.
Who is creating these thumbnails? Great stuff!
It's AI art, there's all sorts of programs that'll "paint" anything you describe
The poker room was at the wynn temporarily for around a year after they reopened after Covid.
10:24 I'd fold here. (Haven't seen reveal yet).
R: Checking flop was a poor play. If he decided to call any bet, then he must've bet that amount beforehand.
Then Turn: Turn call was even poorer decision than flop x/c. What's the point of calling here? If you call turn bet, then you must've called river brick bet, too. (Which is the case). If H was not beaten on flop, then Turn is definitely lost. If H was beaten on flop, then Turn beat him eve more!
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Correct play: C-bet flop, and then go from there.
13:55 now river reveal: KQ...proves above rationalization was correct.
I would have put out a blocker bet on the river, if his stack was deeper.
The Wynn poker in the Encore used be at the Wynn.
What could the hero do to minimize his losses in this particular hand? Did he misplay it? I'm not sure, I'm kinda 50/50 on most decisions on this one. I do well being patient but I have a hard time letting go of a good made hand. It's costing me money. Where could the hero find a fold here?
Hero could have c-bet small on the flop, rather than giving up the betting lead by check-calling. Once hero check-calls flop, he should fold turn to this 2x pot sizing.
Don’t like just check calling if youre 100% checking flop you need to have some c/r.2x pot bet at a live table is heavenly weighted to value but you still have some outs to boat. Fold river unimproved.
He can make a trivial fold on turn.
Should have folded, the Ace came and villain wasn't afraid to bet......he's not afraid of your AK or set.
It was in wynn before
I definitely think you should be betting this flop sure King Queen in his range but so is jack ten and any club draw even a heart draw
It was in the email 😂😂😂
Really really surprised villian 2x pot the turn with the pure nuts and drawing to the pure nuts flush. Nice play though. Bet he put our villian on a lot of like AQ, AJ, A10 plus maybe sets and J10s
Prob a bad play. Just worked out hero had a set
@@mrhumble2937 ya I think it’s a very bad play. Hard to get called by anything but a flush. Maybe the dunce straight especially 98cc. Sets might fold especially any but top set.
@@windy6455 It just depends on whether Villain is creative enough to find a sufficient amount of bluffs.
If yes, then the bet size looks perfect, to get it in on the River comfortably. - And, if you fold every set and 2-pair you have
outside the rare, occasional, straight against the bet: Gotcha! 😉
The main question for me would be what Villain does with TT/99, as those hands would prefer a small sizing ;
- but I assume he mostly 3-bets with them pre.
@@Badbentham we’re Utg and It’s live poker villains will MOSTLY flat 1010 and 99. But ya the huge bet on turn is nuts or a bluff so tough spot
The lower the stakes, the more dramatic the ranges are. Either super tight or super wide
This wasn't low stakes
@@mrhumble2937 responding to the title.
Yes way back Daniel Negreanu was poker room ambassador at the Wynn poker. It since moved over to the Encore.
First, the flop should be a bet or a check-raise. While the caller may not have any flushes, the other player isn't going to have many (if any) either. Is this the type of player that's playing K2 suited? Because if the player has KQ of clubs, betting the flop makes sense, but why make a double pot size bet on the turn? What are you getting called by? I would assume that most players are betting sets on this flop. If I don't have a flush on this board (on the turn) and my opponent calls a 2x pot bet, and they didn't bet the flop, I'm going to be worried that they have me beat; unless I have specifically the K of clubs. So really the only hand that the opponent can have that can play this way is KQ with the K of clubs; and it is possible that the hero player can have QJ of clubs (but not likely). So essentially every holding that the opponent could possibly have except for KQ with the K of clubs becomes a bluff. That's why I think betting or check-raising the flop is essential in most cases. You get a better idea where you're at in the hand.
x/r, why? If you're raising into nuts, you'll lose your guts@! If:
1) V has a combo draw (flush+straight) he is not folding your raise. Then when turn (Ac) comes, you still don't know where you're at.
2) V has nuts (KQ) then you do the math (about x/r).
I don't like the hero's flop play at all.
I'm surprised that Bart agrees with calling this at some frequency even though I agree it's a good bluff catcher in theory. Kx and possibly Qx would make sense as bluffing candidates but there aren't any offsuit Kx/Qx that villain could be reasonably calling with that aren't already paired. Is a reg ever running this bluff with no relevant blockers?
A reg? Probably not. V would have to be a pretty bad rec player to play any 1P/2P or worse set this way when the Ac comes on the turn. V's 2/3 flop bet and 2x turn bet are repping super-thick value. I don't think anyone is doing that without a made hand or a blocker to the nuts, and probably not without a made hand which includes a blocker to the nuts, so V's line is screaming KcQx, assuming V would 3B pre with KcQc.
Trivial turn fold.
@@1vailchris Indeed: We beat no value. The relevant question for Villain on the Turn: Do we fold, all things considered, more than 66% of our Flop check/call range to his 2x pot size bet? If yes: Then he starts to print money with hands (without blockers) like 76s or 44.
But, yes: In general the spot on the Turn is severely underbluffed. And, AQ could be a better calling hand than JJ: Idk.
Unless I'm playing against a known player/bluffer, I'm folding the river here! 👍😎✌🗽
Did they lower the gambling minimum age to 13?
however, if he checks 100% flop and check calls a lot being KQ Q8s 78s TT raises his check call range is too weak in that runout should call!? There are not that many intuitive bluffs, however if it is a decent player it might be a call.
Check raise flop 100%. Everything else is draws which need to be charged. And 10/9 and sub Sets call or reraise
C betting the flop seems like my play, esp if I have an aggressive image
@@officeofpeaceinformation5094 absulutely, but just because he checked, it's a check raise.
Too many hands beat these three jacks. I think I’m folding?
Bart seemed disappointed multiple times during this call....
The most disappointed face was at this interaction:
Bart (proudly): Did I know he had KQo?
Caller (like Buzz Killington): Yes, it was in the email
So Bart knows the results before? I knew it!
The poker room moved to the Wynn during COVID but the actual room has always been technically in the Encore.
This is not true. The poker room used to be in the Wynn well before Covid. It then went to the Encore, back to the Wynn during Covid, and now back to Encore.
Wynn has the best food and artwork .
bart plays soft poker, its funny how important he feels caps are. he wants to peddle nuts
You gotta remember, if this villain had AK the hand would never make it onto CLP.
I find the channel pretty focused on hero betting line and decision making. Some reveals are ludicrous but this is more of a product of the hand getting stuck in the head of hero to the point they want to review and discuss it.
True, but villain should never have anything close to AK here.
Where I play, people could literally show anything. Wouldn’t be surprise to see 3 6 off suit
Not if you whip 'em hard!
I have to fold the river. So many ways to lose
Played so wrong smh
I think if we're not going to c-bet this flop with top set, then we need to fold, if not on the flop, then definitely on the turn when V over-bets 2x pot. V won't be double-barrel bluffing often enough on this board texture to make this a profitable call on flop and turn, even with the Jc in our hand. When V flats hero's raise pre, his range is going to have a lot of KX in it, with a lot of KQ for a straight, and some KXcc for a flush. Even the worst opponents aren't going to continue barreling very often with T9 or AT.
Did you suggest folding the flop with top set as a potential possibility?
@@windy6455 I'm saying we should probably just c-bet small on this flop as a way to pot-control, rather than check-call. If we bet small and get raised, we can comfortably fold flop against most opponents. But if we decide to check-call flop, we need to check-fold this turn. This check-call line doesn't make a lot of sense to me, unless we are absolutely certain V is bad enough to barrel with a worse hand than top set on this insanely connected board.
@@1vailchris I actually think check call is a fine play multi way. He has roughly 33% equity vs a flopped straight, more or less depending the club factor. Betting and getting raised fucking sucks. HU ya definitely c!, Maybe 3 ways too atleast if you’re not fully oop vs everyone. You’re forgetting his semi bluff candidates too. Live recs WILL double barrel sets on this board when checked to as well, maybe even two pair. They assume you’re check calling a draw or over pair or something. Turn call is questionable vs this size although I’m surprised he used this size with QK king of clubs. it’s hard for him to get called by anything worse than a flush.
@@1vailchris btw betting small as pot control especially on the flop is just NOT a thing. You check if you want to pot control. I forget how many saw the flop but imo super multi way in early position if you have a betting range here it’s like AQcc, QK, maybe AKcc, 89s especially with clubs. JQcc could maybe bet im not sure. Something like that. Basically hands that need to deny equity but aren’t hating life when raised they can comfortably call or even 3! (AQcc, AKcc, QK)
@@windy6455
_folding the flop with top set as a potential possibility?_
If he C-bet flop, and got raised, then it is a fold with certainty (not a "potential") loss.
👽👍🏾
Let’s goooo
Solvers never tell you to do anything 100%…
Not true plenty situations where the oop is meant to range check on the flop and Ip is meant to range bet