What Losing Craps Players are MISSING
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- Опубліковано 27 сер 2024
- Craps players should have a plan for the average roll which lasts 8.5 rolls and then prepare for the long roll. Link to math on avg. roll www.casinocity....
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I'm a fan of "get in, get out, go up" strategies. On a $5 table, I'll go $44 inside, inside press to $66 inside, then regress down to $32 across. After 2 hits, I'll be out of the hand with $2 profit in the rack, prepped to go up
Love it!
I've not seen a $5 table in at least 2 yrs
I don't understand, how are you up $2 after 2 hits? like 2 hits after doing all that?
Dislike it 😎.
@@TxGambler77 theres some in tunica, but most othe places in south and central ms have $15 or $25 min tables.
One of the best videos you have done especially for newer players. Everyone sees the movies and thinks they should just ride a roll until its over. Great info.
Thanks!
The first portion of this video was an outstanding practical math lesson. That made so much sense. Where it get fuzzy is in the pressing and regressing. I can only get so far with my plan and then I tend to overwhelmed and my plan goes out the window.
My suggestion, set aside what you plan on playing per shooter, let’s say it’s $60. Move that to front rail. Bet it however you like, but try and recoup that $60 as fast as you can. From there, it really doesn’t matter what you do. Have fun
For the record: There are approximately 8.5 rolls per shooter in Casino Craps. 2.5 of those rolls are Comeout rolls (Black Puck). 6 of those rolls are point cycle rolls (White Puck). Of those 6 Point Cycle rolls, 1 is the 7 out. So, on average, a typical inside place bettor will have 5 rolls per shooter to do their thing. However, since place bets are typically off for the comeout where I play, Place bettors are missing 29.75% of all rolls. It's why I say, 'Line bets are always on!'.
Line bets are not Place bets. All Line bets are always ON regardless of your preferences. Perhaps you meant to write that your Place bets are ON.
Great video!!! Maybe your best educational one yet... I have been practicing this (More than 10 hours a week for months). Bet big ($60 each on 6, 8 and $60 outside) with the come out working and the following two rolls then regress the 6, 8 to $30 each with maintaining the outside for two more rolls. Then regress to minimum on the inside or across. Depending on how many 6, 8's were hit. Then Press/Collect-Press/Collect with the casinos chips. You are correct to be ready for the long roll. Frustrating watching everyone win but you... The hard part is knowing when the table goes cold. Seams to be common (2-3) good rolls and (3-4) bad rolls. I play the Field during the bad. After 6, 7, 8, 2, 12 and double once "I Never chase the Field!!!!!"
Leave it to Jeremy to cover a topic in my head....the fun of craps is the long roll, but you gotta survive the short rolls. So 3 choices: huge bankroll, bet big(ish) for a couple rolls then regress, or limp in slow and build up. A 4th would be some kind of dark side (DP or lay) hedge. Thanks and nice job, Jeremy.
I didn’t mention darkside, but they are always playing for that early 7.
And they don’t like repeating numbers a lot of the time. That’s ok. Players get to pick whatever way they want to play.
Love it! My goal is always to get my hand paid for in 2-3 hits, and go aggressive once I’m paid for my initial bets. Increase longevity but never miss a roll!
love it!
But why? Have you decided there’s no better way?
@@JayAr709 my goal is to last as long as possible in hopes I am present for the big roll. If I am depleting my bankroll in 5-10 shooters that lowers my chances significantly
I have learned so much from these videos. I dont go in it looking to make money - prepared to lose - but i want to use my money to buy as much entertainment as I can. These videos help to buy more time and entertainment
Yup!
Make a plan and then stick to it, I do believe that we have discussed this in the past.
Keep up the great work.
Mike
Nice video! Explaining the different variations of strategy to get a profit.
I play place bets. I cast my line on two locations of the pond, usually 5 and 9, this requires patience. Whichever fish is biting is where my strategy plays. Each number first pays for itself, same bet, then when the fish bites again, press (There is no loss to you at this point... just profit margin). At this point, there is no reason to guess when the 7 is coming. Just alternate each bite with "same bet" and then "press." A really good roll will reward you. An average roll will win you enough for more bait. This extra bait allows you to cast your line to another location of the pond, but remember, are you there to catch the most fish or there to catch the big one?
Happy fishing!
How do you keep pumping out these great videos? You have helped me so much with my craps game even though I only bet $100 - $200 over a night.
I love craps, and just make videos I would want to see. Glad you find them helpful. Im a low roller too.
My strategies are broken down into: 1) bankroll - how much am I buying for, 2) betting - what am I betting on and how I bet changes during a session based on how much i;'m up or down 3) shooting strategy - if i decide to shoot, which dice set to use.
I am newer to craps and tend to play conservatively. When someone else is shooting, and the point is set, I go table min. on the 6&8. If i get 2 hits on those I'm in the profit zone. The third hit is when I spread out to either the 5 or 9 or press up on the 6 or 8. If hardways are hitting, I'll go dollar hardways until they hit and then press them up in $1 increments.
I was at Foxwoods on $10 tables this past Tuesday and this strategy netted me +898 on a $300 buy in. I also had a 35 min heater.
Nice. Foxwoods table min much better than mohegan.
@@awallerfamily haven't played at mohegan yet. but good to know. encore in boston has $15 min.
Good explanation of how having a plan and applying various known strategies can increase your winning chances. the same mathematical formula works for the game of Monopoly too, same dice combinations (2 dice, 36 possible combinations), the board is laid out with a "7" average square and power pressing (buying houses) can increase your odds of winning the game.
ah, never really thought of applying the math to board games with two dice.
For the first few years my wife and I were together, I almost always smoked her at monopoly by doing exactly what you said. Power press and buy like a drunken sailor. She always thought it was a crazy strategy until she saw how often I beat her. You end up bleeding players dry with low rent but no chance for them to place houses
Enjoyed the strategy. Already use much of it including place and field. Thanks for the vlog. PS: can you do a vlog on the don't bets? Including don't and lay bets.
Sure thing!
That's the fun of craps, there are so many different approaches. But you gotta know the math on diff bets to play with confidence within your plan!
I’m the type that power press and collect. I’ll definitely put this strategy to use this weekend. Thanks for the tip!
Big fan Jeremy. Keep doing what you are doing. Been watching your videos for a while and I think I am a better player for it.
I appreciate that!
@Color Up. Today at WinStar (OK), I tried changing my strategy to start with a higher amount across, get two hits and regress to a paid off amount and then press up if the roll goes long. My bank roll had much more variation. I felt more pressure on the first two rolls with twice as much as risked than normal and ouch when I don't get two hits, but once I regress after two hits it feel liberating. I ended up ahead being after four hours on a choppy table. I can't wait to try this again the next time.
Up after 4 hours on choppy is key. Don’t make initial bets so beg if it adds that much pressure to you. Lower it some and try to get 4 hits instead of two for example. Adjust to you comfort level.
@@ColorUp It wasn't too much pressure. My normal betting was waiting for four hits. This is new. One session isn't enough data to know if two hits and regress is for me yet. Thank for the videos.
Mahalo Jeremy, I've been practicing 96 across, three hits n depress to 66 inside but the early 7s can really hurt so I'm now practicing 96 across, two hits n depress to 6 n 8. At that point if the 6 or 8 hits I can "same bet" or press both numbers n collect some or press the hit number n collect some. I tend to be conservative and may same bet twice before pressing or expanding my box numbers. Of course if the 7 comes very quickly I lose the 96. I get to play real craps in Vegas on June 27th. RogerT
I do think it comes down to what’s your goal and what’s your stake . Are you satisfied with winning a little ? Or more . If you play the odds you’ll win a little . Ya win a lot your beating the math. It’s a gamble !!
64 across power press 1st number. 4/10 go to $30, 5/nine go to $25, six/8 go to $30. If a PP is hit regress to 44 inside, unless its a 4/10PP go to 64 across. If not power press next #. On 3rd # if it was a non PP # hit go to 44 inside. If it was a PP # dropped down to 64 across.
I was at a table, when a guy came up and bought in for $10,000. He waited until the point was established, which was a six, they bet $1,000/$1,200 across, placing $1,000 on the line on the pass. The next roll was an eight. He took everything down, colored up, tipped the dealers $150 and left. The dealer next to me told me that he does that every week. She said that sometimes he'll color up and play with a couple of hundred just having fun, but she said he never leaves with less than an extra $1,000. I have to believe he is doing that at all 7 local casinos and maybe a few within a couple of hours drive. She said that she has never seen him lose but, if he did, it would be horrific. I can imagine. I've played that on a few rollers, just turning my bets off, after the first roll, but at the $50/$60 level. LOL It's worked for me all but two times and took me a LONG time to recover.
Some of your best yet, have a PLAN!
Be prepared for hot, cold or average.
Often it helps me to watch awhile before betting.
(one thing you cannot do in bubble craps)
That last roll was reminiscent of a Jeremy roll witnessed during DiceCon last year.
I like this strategy I will put it in play in AC
Another great video, keep up the good work!
Thanks, will do!
IF you have the BR for it, then regression strategies are the BEST!!!
That's how I played it last weekend. $44 inside, press till collect to get out of the game, then go hard hoping for a monster roll. My DiceCon bankroll is a bit bigger thanks to that
Sweet!
The biggest issue I see is people betting without and sensible plan or strategy. Just guessing and hoping. Yesterday, I started with $150, left with $1126. Guy next to me who was there for all the same rolls I was(mine, dice god) was only up $50 because he was spazzing his money away on field bets.
Do you like to lay the 4 or the 10? For example Bet 25 on the 5,6,8,9. And lay the 4 for 125? I was wondering what are your experience with double tapping and regress your lay bet once you are on house money? Also will you sometimes leave your lay bet to also protect yoour house money if you feel the dreaded 7 comes?
Jeremy--Good explanation of some of the math facts of the game. You're wanting people to Follow The Math of the game-that's good--But give them All the math facts, not a small portion only to claim, in an hour, basically nobody shoots over 6 rolls. Please get on over to Wizard of Odds: look up "Number of rolls table in craps". The math shows by Point +6 there's 58% of those12 shooters per hour that 7-out---58% of 12 is 6.96--that's 7 shooters out by Point+6. By point+12 it's 83% 7-out---or 3 folks 7-Out between Point+ 7-point+12.
There's 17% that continue on in a Typical hour Past point+12. By Point +18, we lost 10% of that 17%. Now, we have 7% of shooters left in a "typical" hour. And 7% of 12 (average number of shooters/hour) =.84--or likely to have 1 person go past point +18--That's the potential monster roll shooter who goes past 25 rolls.
That's 7 shooters out by Point+6, 3 shooters out by Point+12, and 1, rarely 2 (that's 2 only 16% of the time) out by P+18. Then that single shooter finally out after P+18. It's Not rare to get more than 6 rolls/hour-it's a regular 4 shooters Every hour who get more than 6 rolls Not including the terminal 7.
Please don't delete this comment, it's math facts. Please read them and relate them to your members, rather than the negative claim that hardly anyone gets more than 6 hits when they play this game. 4 of every 12---that's 1 of Every 3 shooters Each hour is gonna roll more than 6 points.👍👍
Collect after 4 rolls since 5 is the average a Big Red hits.
Avg roll lasts 8.5 rolls due to comeout winners and losers. The 7 mathematically is due 1 in every 6 rolls.
I'm guilty of playing a single strategy and just sticking to it no matter how the Shooters are rolling. The strategies I use are ususally from some guy on UA-cam whose name escapes me. 😉lol
Yeah, I stick to one strategy as well. I don't like switching and chasing the dice, but the strategies usually involve a plan to collect my money back, then be in position for big win.
@@ColorUp I bet the outside and I've thought about taking down my bets once I've doubled up but im afraid to in the off chance I miss out on a monster roll.
@@ReaverLordTonus find a happy medium, take down some but not all, gotta leave something up to prepare for that monster roll
there is no bet on the table in your favor. That is why you are losing. Period. Jumping around and making different bets in different systems doesn't change any bets to your favor. I love craps, I have lots of stories about when I won but, I still never walk up to the table thinking I have an advantage unless I have a coupon for a free bet.
Once I establish my place bets, a player has one toss of the dice to make me a profit after the point is established on the craps table.
I start at 12, press up to 18 and collect, and the $1 goes on the bet for the dealers. How's that?
It is important to understand the math when you’re playing craps. Constantly pressing or power pressing your betting against the seven and that’s a fools adventure. Instead, I lay the four. I would much rather play against the four than the seven.
I play 110 inside and lay the four for $250. After five hits, $175, I regress to 66 inside. Obviously if the seven comes before the five hits, I’ve made profit because my lay bet is covering my inside bets. If occasionally I get burned by the four on the next hand, I press my bets to 154 inside and gradually make it back up.
I call his strategy
“Lay Lady Lay” a double entendre, an homage to the Bob Dylan song and to Lady Luck.
eddieonthemoney
When I say, I press my bets, I start out at 110 and use winnings to press. I press each of the inside numbers by two units.
Outstanding video! I got into a huge debate today about this very topic. It amazes me how many people just do not understand the every non seven outcome increases the probability of experiencing a seven out.
The probability that a hand will continue without a seven drops to below 50% after four rolls.
yes and no. after each roll the math resets, and you again have a 1 in 6 chance of the 7 rolling. But before the roll starts, the math says the avg roll should last 8.5 rolls. If you are on roll 15, its very unlikely for the roll to continue, but the chance is still the same, 1 in 6.
Each jump of the dice is a fresh trial, independent of history. Nothing is predictive.
Each roll is independent of each other. The 7 rolling is always 1/6. First roll, 4th roll, 38th roll- always a 16.6% of rolling a 7.
This is exactly what I am talking about. Yes each roll of the dice is independent. But when you look at a series of rolls it becomes dependent. Specifically each successive roll of the dice the probability of a non-seven out come is diminishing.
The 7 out is inevitable, otherwise there would be people shooting dice indefinitely.
7. Non 7
ROLL 1 16.66 83.34
ROLL 2 16.66 69.45. (.8334)^2
ROLL 3 16.66. 57.88 (.8334)^3
ROLL 4 16.66. 48.24 (.8334)^4
Etc...
the dice have no memory
A really great video!
Let me know if you want to roll this out sometime. I will try and test out a low roller version. It seems most of your followers are in that genre.
You can submit on my dice advice form at www.colorup.club
I think it's a good idea to be aware of your exposure but I think you're appealing to the gambler's fallacy a bit. The average shooter might have have 8.5 rolls but the dice have no memory of whether you're on roll 5 or 25. Just my 2 cents.
im not saying the 7 is "due" on roll 8.5, which would be gamblers fallacy, it is always a 1 in 6 chance of rolling. But to play with no way to recoup your initial outlay and assume it's not going to show up for 20 rolls is just silly when the math clearly dictates the average roll length. Plan for the mathematical average, prepare for the unknown.
I am gonna try to do a challenge. I have a winning strategy that I havent lost with in 3 weeks.
No! The reason players who same bet lose more is that they are betting more when you pull your bets matters only because every bet loses money overall. The more bets you place, the more money you have risked, which means more money lost. It’s that simple.
My favorite has been Squeeze Play
Beginner player here. Do you ever play the hard ways? Also do you ever hedge your bets when you have a lot of money on the table by betting 7?
I’ll play the hardways. I rarely hedge.
NICE graphics mate!
Glad you like them!
Start with a grand. $20 on the Don't. 1x odds on the come out 6&8. 2x on the 5&9. 3x on the 4&10.. Grind until you're up $200 and walk, even if it takes hours
My problem is stomaching the bankroll. Having enough for 10 shooters is a going to be at least $600. IDK about you but I don't like to light that much money on fire.
walk away before you lose 600, maybe consider 200 down is too cold a streak
I like how at 9:11 you said you can roll a 15 lol
I meant total number of rolls, not numbers I was rolling, but listening back I see how it sounds that way ha
@@ColorUplol my bad. I'll find a way to bust your balls eventually lol
great video
Glad you enjoyed it
Is there a code I can use for the grand series resort to get discounts. I’m coming to Reno at end of July
I have this 15% off, but if you follow their social media you can usually do a lot better Save 15% at www.GrandSierraResort.com/ColorUpOffer
Ty any sugggestions on places to go out there for $5 tables. I’m from pa and rarely get to even play a $10 table
@@timmarmontelo3256 Reno there is no $5 table except the roll to win at GSR, but most of the casinos are $10...on the weekends and holidays you will see $15/$25- downtown Reno "the row" will always be higher priced tables
@@timmarmontelo3256 Depending where you are in PA you may be close to Seneca Allegany casino in NY which is a $5 craps table ($10 sometimes on Saturdays after like 3pm)
I got addicted to the game, I lost $10000 in 3 months, and I recently stopped. I will only play twice a month, only putting down $200 per game
Dang, that’s a lot of loses. I’m glad you have a reasonable budget for entertainment now
@@ColorUp I still love your channel
Toni to the point of the video, what was your plan of play when you experienced these losses?
@@louvoodoo I used different strategies, and sometimes I won, the problem is that I went to the casino 3 to 4 times a week
@@tonimartin6167 I'm sorry to hear that. I'm glad my nearest casino w/ table craps is over an hour away.
As long as I leave with more than I started, winner.😂
What are most players missing? Not Big Red, that's for sure!
MAX ODDS thats it.
Max odds makes zero difference mathematically long term. Helps you win faster or lose faster depending on if points are hitting.
I'm in the press press press never collect, camp
Ha, many are. No problems if that’s how you like to play.
How to win: Own the casino
Long term yes. Very expensive though
Everyone is a losing craps player lol some just lost more than others.
winning at craps is simple... just stop rolling sevens!
simple
It's all luck lol😂😂😂 you can lose your ass doing exactly this. House always wins.
Its called gambling for a reason
As an alternative to regressing, have them all OFF for the moment, unleashing a parachute 🪂 rescue. By preferring the momentary bad bet long-shots, say-all the hard ways 2x each, the same but hopping 1x each, and a horn high Eleven at mins-for the wholesale taking of money off the table ( your pumped up Across bets are off, remember? ).
This is where the prop box can be justified, and used only while offloading profiit checks: action which is turned off, but will be restored and then pressed skyward, in the event your long shots return a hefty share of this risk.
Failing that, call them down as lockups for your rack.
Or, better, prefer tactical triggers-active stop loss moves, such as Six or Eight Comeouts-These signaling a “Line bet only” attack. By which you’ll be applying flats with odds ( to an approximately 50% schedule of increases), interleaved with the parlaying of Natural wins.
Or a trigger as an outside number begins the shooter’s point contest. This will activate the use of that tolerable 1.52 drain: 2x, place bets 6 & 8-themselves the low cost engine for eventual full spreads of box numbers, not the typical off-the-shoulder overbet, but piecemeal and bit by bit.
Or yet another trigger: the Come out-, streak spoiling- crap rolls. Which will authorize what are ordinarily gutless call downs, re setting previously established, pressed up place & buy bets to their base bet minimums ( And pocketing the profits).
Regressing is going the wrong way.
Notwithstanding the sneering contempt of those who reference Elephant Graveyards, the inevitable losing losing Lay down was “paid for” on the way up. It is the price of doing business, and, rationally mitigated by the afore mentioned tactics, should not disturb your serenity one whit. …assuming your across action isn’t otherwise safely buttoned OFF.
The maniac dealers’ “power” moves are as suboptimal as most regressive habits. As are pressure instructions that do not concentrate upon the numbers that are actually hit. Eschew tier pressing, sister-, or cross pressing. Cast a jaundiced eye upon the casinos’ 3-4-5 unit Odds proffer, as well. Anything at all can, and will happen at the dice table-laws of large numbers be damned.
Instead, accept the reality of bank craps. You MUST grind.
But put no distance between your betting stake and important scores. Limit losses-but let your profits run.
Avoid guesswork. You can’t know when the hand ending Seven will show.
Be a “tough out”-cut costs by stretching your way to full spreads, disdaining the incontinent, off-the-shoulder Across Action for which so few place bettors are adequately capitalized.