The Standard to Judge all Craps Strategies By
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- Опубліковано 6 сер 2023
- This will by my new standard or measuring stick to compare all craps strategies against. The classic 3 point molly with max odds. It will not be a perfect comparison as strategies will use different bet amounts. But this is the mathematically lowest house edge way to play the game. (except the don't with lay odds is .01% lower)
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just walked away with $200 playing for 2 hours with this strategy - thank you!!!
I like having a "standard" fir comparison. The 3 point molly is a good choice due to most players play the paa line. Keep up the good topics. 👍
Like the concept! Love the video production quality. Always top of the line!
As someone that deals with controls, references, and standards everyday, I appreciate that you now have a standard to measure other strategies to. I can't wait to see the comparisons!
Thanks for the videos Jeremy - you're my "go to" for all things craps. I think the standard comparison will be a good addition to your strategy videos.
Thanks 👍
I’m saving this to send to my friends explaining Pass, Come & Odds
Love that come out you rolled. What I do is an eight dollar horn along side the pass line if the seven rolls, just replace the horn. If your horn wins, parlay the whole bet ONCE. If it wins again, chase it away with $20 increases on the horn. And a $20 hop on the hardways. Just as you stated, 33 percent of time the game is won or lost on the come out. I can hit three or four hardways or horn bets in a row several times before I or another shooter has a fifteen or longer roll....
I Learned a lot in this video. Thank you
Another great vid! Great idea for a standard. I see a lot of PL/odds coupled with 6/8 place as well. In fact, I use my own standard to measure against when testing out mine and your strategies: My wife Amy. She's a fairly new craps player who does her own random strategies with PL/odds, placing, come bets, fields bets, pretty much an out of the box recreational player. I have yet to beat her, lol! Once I find the strategy that beats her consistently, that's gonna be the one
Haha, Amy is the ultimate strategy test
play the standard but have often gone past 3, which chews up the bankroll on a bad run. Thanks for the clear video.
Missed that 2 for the ATS good roll for you!
I usually play this strategy. It can get bankroll intensive, but when the dice repeat, it's all good. A couple of points. I like to make a $1 Any Craps bet on the Come Out. It's a low percentage play, but I'm looking to establish a point. After a second hit like the repeat 4 at 17:00, I would press $5. I also toss a $5 to the stick for all the Hard Ways, putting the dealers on one of them with the change. Carry on!
Love the standard! The Molly makes me money!
Great system when your numbers are rolling!
Great explanation. I appreciate the video.
Glad it was helpful!
This is a GREAT idea.
That’s a decent standard. I would use this at a table with 10x odds or better. Of course I’d have to come with a significant bankroll because the twists and turns will be intense if not insane.
Brillant! Great 💡 ❤
these videos are great thanks!
You're very welcome!
This is in no way a critique of the video or channel but it’s fascinating to me to watch craps content creation go in cycles.
There really just isn’t that much unique information to talk about and so it seems like in 20 years we will still be watching new videos about strategies, house edge, etc.
Unless they change the fundamentals or odds of the game the only content can be strategy and roll outs. The new evolution is doing live rolls with being able to bet along on crapsee to test your individual strategy.
@@iptvclub1575 totally. But there are endless new channels flooding the algo with a billion hours of the same content. Some do it slightly more entertaining than others but it’s just unsustainable.
And yet people will still argue about things like dice influence, advantage play, odds, etc. nothing ever gets solved or agreed on :)
Not wrong…poker, sports, etc same thing over and over…but each and every roll is a brand new sequence, that keeps us coming back for more dice
I do like 3 point molly. Gives you a chance to feel the roll before all your money is on the table. Helps protect against those PSO's. I usually do this with a $15 or up table, lower than that i'll likely risk the $44 inside.
Good idea (especially with your past record in dooming strategies😂) might be some old posts to revisit by popular demand
like the 2 pt molly per john scarne in his book
Good choice Molly. Solid strategy mathematically. Very useful benchmark for evaluating all others.
Disagree - Molly WAS the standard in the 1990's but today? Get real. I's a dinosaur.
@DrKnowCraps the game hasn’t changed since the 90s. Why wouldn’t it still be the standard?
@@ColorUp 1. Because no one plays the 3 point Molly so having an unfavorable as your standard is wrong
2. Place bet the 6 & 8 as the standard - (using your calculations they both have -1.5 vs -1.4 for Pass line
3. Try this as a standard: minimum Dont Pass, establish a point. Place the 6 & 8 - no regressions, no pressure ust play and collect.
@DrKnowCraps maybe you didn’t bother watching video. It’s the standard because this is what every book, mathematician, casino, and “expert” recommends. The object of the standard is to try and find something better than what all the “experts” say to play.
I disagree that no one plays it. I see it constantly played.
I have several videos on the DP 6/8, I like the strategy, but it’s not the standard.
@@ColorUp Yes I did watch the video so now I will point out where you state in order to get that low EV you must take max odds BUT in your video you tell viewers if you don't have the money to take the odds it's ok - no it isn't! Without max odds it increases the EV. Alas can we agree to disagree?
This is my standard strategy. I usually vary the amount of odds based on how the table is doing. Single odds for choppy, double for hot. I even go no odds on the come if it's really cold. I always hedge with a $5 horn high Yo.
Great video! First time seeing the 3 point molly strategy.
I did find it interesting that at a 3x-4x-5x table, the max odds wins you the same amount as it would if you placed the same bet (more on the 4 and 10 even if you place it: would typically buy those). In a $10 line bet with max odds, you would get $70 if you hit your numbers. Similarly for a place bet, you would get $72-$70-$70 off of a $40-$50-$60 place bets. The payout is more for a placed number as you move away from max odds with the same bet. However, you will win more with max odds at a 10x or higher table.
Hopefully I did my math right...
Yep, equal bet amounts the place bet pays more until 5x and above in odds. I think that is why most casinos allow s max bet of only 345x
345 is the easiest to pay off. I admit that, even on a 10x table, I will do 345 for ease and to account for the lower odds of hitting outside numbers. If I am doing well I may press to 6-8-10 but only on $10 tables.
I’d like to see that system with the don’t pass and come either break even on a seven or grab a couple numbers then dc couple times . Just like to see it rolled . Great videos as always thanks
I'd like him to show the don't version of this. Don't pass max odds, 2 don't comes max odds against. This time he would have got burned but for those 2 rolls and out tables, oooh that's some good money.
Molly may be OK as an easy to bet approach but it wouldn't be my choice on a choppy table - it will eat your lunch (and your bankroll). Why be subjected to taking random rolls for getting your next 2 bets through the COME? This has at least 3 major downsides; first you have to get it out of the COME to a random box number, second you can't pull those bets down at any time during a roll and third you have to have repeat numbers to win. For me, I've found using Place Bets directly on numbers I want has more major upsides over the Molly. First I can control when I want them ON or OFF both on the come out roll AND AFTER a point is established, second I select which numbers I want my money on (no random number from a roll), third I can pull all bets down after either a "number of rolls" or "number of hits" strategy - this is a HUGE advantage on a choppy table, you can decide pick how many numbers you want on each roll, you can vary how much you bet for each number AND you can pull them all down after 1, 2, 3 hits or ride them out for the entire roll. Sorry, but I can't buy into the "odds advantage" as being able to overcome the freedom to pick where and when my bets are handled. So as a standard, are you planning on running new strategies matched against the Molly as two separate bettors or are you going to show new strategies and indicate what the total ends up with using the same exact numbers rolled with the Molly? Either way should be interesting, although trying to figure out betting amounts to keep them equal might be awkward. Should be interesting ... roll on ...
I agree with much of your thoughts. I’m going to use as standard because 90% of all books suggest this play, and mathematically it is lowest house edge way to play. I’ll be showing results with same rolls, but it won’t always be directly comparable with amounts, bet sizes etc. it will just be an interesting comparison against “the standard”
GREAT calls!!!!
TOTALLY agree that playing the Place bets are MUCH better than playing Pass line or Come bet with MAX odds!!!
There's no such thing as a choppy table. There's only a table that *has been* choppy. The odds on any roll don't change.
@@neverfox Yep, don't disagree that the odds on any roll don't change but if you have spent any time at all at a crap table you can't deny that you will see periods where the table is a slab of ice and other times in which it seems shooters can do no wrong. What I stated as a reply still stands ... YOU can decide when you want to pull your bets or ride them out to the next 7 (that's one thing that will happen to end all rolls). It's your choice how you want to play. My point was directed more to the MOLLY using the COME rather than using PLACE BETS and a DP.
@@robo52and the other certainty at a craps table is after a shooter has a monster roll (>15 throws), they are going to PSO on their next toss. 🤣
I like the 4 horsemen playing the dont then the come that you showed.
This is a great idea to create a standard. I assume you will play 2 shooters at a time to compare each system from now on? Boy this was a rough string of rolls. Never saw so many craps rolled before the point.
Sometimes side by side, sometimes I’ll just show results of what “the standard” would have gotten
The irony of the lowest house edge strategy requiring the biggest bankroll- almost like the casino created the strategy themselves. Never have understood people thinking this is the best strategy- $66 inside vs. 3 come bets with full odds...one player has the four most likely numbers to roll, the other has three random numbers. Good job explaining it, though- come bets are not easy to explain!
Well, I’m not surprised that if you see those free lessons in the casino, this is what they teach. Odds, best bet….they forget to mention bankroll of which they have unlimited and the player is very limited.
If your going use this as a standard then play it with the other strategies at the same time see what make most money then what ever make the most money at the end of the year use that as the standard next year two systems at the same time all ways cool to see 🎉
Nice
Play don't pass,then don't come,then odds on don't come. Sprinkle in field bets,end of text.......
Tried this on Crapsee (new to it as well), lost everything. Changed to the Don’t Pass and Don’t Come and made out like a bandit
Love the videos, now the real challenge is finding a $10 table
Just say no to $25! They will bring to $10 if y’all east coast players refused to play those $25 tables
@ColorUp Thats all my casino has here in Virginia except for a rare 15 dollar running
@@brizzlex1919 I know, because people play them, why would they ever lower. It’s a sucky circle of supply and demand.
@@ColorUp I know I was just happy to get a casino close by finally. It's some bs I went through 400 in about 30 minutes and went ans made it back up playing poker 🤣. Guess I'll wait a few months before heading back.
@@brizzlex1919 yeah, I feel for ya…the casino greed sucks
Great video, Jeremy.
As you probably saw when you were visiting in the Seattle area, our casinos allow 10x odds. My bankroll would not handle max odds up here. So, what would you suggest for reasonable odds using the 3 point Molly strategy?
Mathematically whether zero odds or 10x, your expected loss is the same over time. But we don't want to lose, we hope you win. And in that case, really it's just whatever you can afford even if it's 1x. One thing I will mention though, if you don't care about the huge 2:1 first roll advantage you have on the pass or come bet , the same size place bet will always pay more unless you are betting 5x odds or more.
I always chuckle to myself when I’m at a craps table, and I see people playing come bets. You don’t take house edge to the bank you take winnings to the bank. Anytime you have to hit a number twice before the seven you are decreasing your odds of winning. If you only want to stay and play all day and maybe break even have at it.
I go to win.
I have been playing a version of what Brian now calls split the sisters for years and have taught it to many people to play it That’s the way to go. I take two to three hits and then regress to the house minimum on the sixth or eighth just to stay in the hand and not be bored. When playing craps if you stay up for more than the 2 to 3 hits, you’re going to be a loser. Look back at the video you did years ago called “Are you a loser?”
I’m not saying this is a way to win. It is claimed to be the best mathematical way to play and all the “experts” and 95% of all the books recommend. I will simply be showing how strategies compare results to this “standard”
@@ColorUp
I understood that but thanks. I’m just pointing out that I’m an anti-come bet kind of guy lol.
"The Standard" did not have the standard ColorUp strategy destroying rolls. Excellent.
Stay tuned 😉
Played the 3pt Molly for about 20 years and probably broke even over all that time. So use of this as a 'Standard' strategy is sound logic as a new strategy qualifier.
Interestingly, Molly players are great gauge of table temperature. Look at their rack, cold/choppy they're counting what's left (slow drain), warm table they're vocal & happy (they need it), after a hot shoot (if they're smart they walk). Currently, I'm having fun playing the 3pt with a DC cover bet, difference is the Pass/Come bets are parlayed once after a win instead of odds. Wins more consistently, small bankroll & most sessions I can run a negative progression on the DC (careful of bad runs) Cheers
Great comment
Hi Jeremy, it's always good to have a new strategy or a version of an older one to try out in the low risk home practice game, lol.
The question I have has been asked a bit. I may have missed it or your answer, if so I apologise.
I have the impression when using crapsee you can enter numbers for the rolls as well as the current bets.
Would this be feasible for your set-up? It would be great to see a same time comparison of "the standard" and one or two of the many out there.
I am well aware I have no idea what it takes to run a channel as you do.
Thanks for everything you do to show more options!
I filmed some videos today just running the strats side by side. Long term that isn’t sustainable, but I’ll have to figure out some system
@@ColorUp not knowing what you ran up against. Would it be possible to roll and track the numbers for one system. Then go back and do a voice over for the other strategy?
I'm not an editor or filmer and apologize for my naivete in these matters.
Good luck and thank you for all you are doing for the game and the players experiences.
No summation of negative EV bets can ever be positive EV.
Any pass line strategies would do well when you throw like that! Lol 🤣
lets say I want to play dont pass, would I bet 2 comes still? or 2 dont come?
New to all of this. Is a Horn Bet allowed, and minimum bet size? Also can a Field Bet be played?
This video is about a specific strategy. You can always make as many or as few bets as you like. So yes you could also bet the horn and field bets. The horn bet along with all other bets in the middle of table are called proposition bets and have a minimum of just $1 for most tables. The horn bet is made up of four bets so it’s minimum is $4. Usually once you are on $25 table, these middle bets move up to $5 minimum
string of 4's helped. how r u going to compare? this strategy won X, 3 point M would have won Y? U would need to roll side by side? lot of work. thanks for posting.
I will roll side by side, or just use the roll results to replay the standard off screen to provide the results. Lots more work, but I think worth it.
10 dollars table in Wisconsin Ho Chunk casino
Apologies are acknowledged. Can we expect a why I love come bets video to replace an earlier video on Color Up? 😊
Haha, we will watch over time as “the standard” gets crushed or succeeds with each of my dice rolls. I think as you see the results come in, we’ll get you converted to a place bettor 😉
@@ColorUp I look forward to putting the standard to the test. I think it will hold up overtime.
Im hoping you do a vs Squeeze Play and then Split the Sisters. Or even all three at the same time if you can manage it.
I guess eventually I’ll have to go back over all strategies I’ve shown, of course the deciding factor will just be how the dice roll that day.
@ColorUp Your loyal viewers will have seen them already and I'm sure you can link to them. I just want to see the head on challenge. Great channel! Love all your colabs w CQ and HCS.
@@achu40 your comment inspired me, I filmed split sisters heads up vs standard today.
@@ColorUp Hell yes! Can't wait to see it! Thanks!
#Colorup gang (first comment 😅)
Haven't watched the whole thing yet, just up to the point where you start rolling at the $10 level. If this is to be the standard going forward, does this mean that, for all the strategies you roll out, you'll show them at the $10 level to maintain that constant?
The other strategies will not always be $10, but the standard will always be $10 with max 3,4,5x odds. It won’t always be a fair comparison, just give people an idea of results compared to “the standard”
Geez I simulate playing at home with a given and I get killed most of the time. Long rolls happen but not enough to up.
Jeremy, since you do not believe in DI and your strategies are for random rollers I suggest the standard would be minimum place bets on 5-6-8-9. Hit and collect no pressing - no regression as simple as simple gets. In addition do NOT work the comeout. It may not be the least EV but I guarantee you that is how the majority of craps players play.
It's your channel so if you want to reference the 3 point Molly as "The Standard" do that. It's like saying the 1988 Ford Escort should be the standard that we compare cars to today😂😂
Since you believe ALL strategies are negative EV (as I believe) make the standard something current and practical lie a 6-7-8 hybrid 🤔
Do you just reverse this for the dark side meaning you do don't pass max odds and don't come? What is the advantages and disadvantages of doing it that way how does the math work?
Yes. I’ll have a video out this Thursday about the opposite way to play. It costs more to play from the dark side, but essentially the math works out to just be nearly opposite.
A question for you if I may ? How does someone get you to show their strategy on the channel?
Submit on my dice advice form at www.colorup.com.
@@ColorUp that brings me to a for sale page
I had a guy next to me play this at a 10x odds table $50. $500 odds in for $5000 out over $20000. In a few hours. Great strategy. But it can go sideways and make you sad lol
Yep, it can lose just as fast as it can win, just depends on sequence of those dice 🤪
That’s 38% win
Most gamblers want to win 25-30% a day so this video at 23 minutes you probably rolled 17-18 your up 9 % more then the average person wants to win a day so I say not a bad day of gambling
I may not understand, but my table at my local is a 3x4x5x. Yet i tried this strategy, and the dealers were saying the only advantage is at max odds. They were saying to put $50 in odds on top of my $5 come bet that landed on 6. They were also allowing $30 behind my $5 line bet. Why were they allowing me to put down 10x odds in the come and 6x odds on the line.
dealers pushing max odds…I hate that. They are repeating what someone told them and don’t understand the game well enough. I understand those amounts if your table is $10 min. But it sounds like it’s just $5….so the table must not be 345x? Unless some info you are providing is inaccurate?
@ColorUp $5 minimum, and I swear it said 345x. But I'll have to follow up on it
@ColorUp I went back, and I was right. The board says 345x, but they allow 10x odds. Kinda weird?
How would you say this compares to your "play all day" strategy of 4 bets each game (1 don't pass, 2 come bets, and 1 don't come bet)?
If I had to pick one strategy, would I do the 3 point molly or are some of these things I'm reading online true about odds being overrated because the house percentage assumes you win (and come bets you get a random number)? If so, what do you recommend (especially for a.newer player)? 3 point Molly, the 4 bet strategy to "play all day", or just 6 and 8 place bets (no pas line?)?
Nevermind, I just watched your video "Best Craps Strategy argument finally ended!" where you explain that Come bets are still valid as you don't have to "double roll to win" because the initial bet has its own benefit of winning on 7/11. So sounds like a combo is best where I can play 6 and 8 with place bets and decide if I want to do a Come bet afterwards and replace my place bet if 6/8 is rolled. Did I get that right and is that a good strategy or should I stick to one of these others you've explained?
Sounds like you are getting a good understanding. This 3 point Molly is an expensive and very volatile strategy, you usually win big and fast or lose big and fast. You really have to decide on your goal and bankroll which determines your play style.
When can you put 100x odds? I have seen that in multiple videos online but never in person.
The Cromwell in LV
Last I saw in Vegas was Cromwell, but that was before covid. The most in Vegas I think currently is 20x at Main Street casino. There were a couple spots in Atlantic City, and horshoe in tunica had it.
100x at Horseshoe, Counsil Bluffs, Iowa
Hop the seven on the come out to hedge your come bets
The point of this strategy is lowest house edge possible- hop bet or any craps bet would carry over 11% house edge.
Can you show the DP way to play this
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Thanks for pointing out that it's the 'lowest house edge' and not the 'best bet' or 'best strategy'. Have seen so many new players confound 'lowest house edge' with 'best chances of winning'.
It’s only the best chance of losing the least amount over long term haha
That's exactly what "lowest house edge" means.
2,3, and 12 in a row.. wow. Never seen that. Terrible luck on this shooter. 🤣🤣🤣
Crap check
The point of this strategy is lowest house edge possible- hop bet or any craps bet would carry over 11% house edge.
If you truly want to have a 'standard', then generate 100 random rolls and apply the exact same rolls to each 'system' to compare outcomes.
100 rolls is not enough data
I would need more like 10,000 rolls
@@shanelee848 I agree 100%. It should be at least replications of 100 rolls to get a decent F test out of this, but I figure even asking him to do 1 set of 100 was pushing his envelope. Dr. Arthur F Assoc. Prof. of Statistics
This kind of data is easily achieved with software such as wincraps. Plug in the bets and let them run. The outcomes are already determined by the house edge of each bet- they will all lose X amount over time. The key I guess is at what point you stop the simulation.
That is not my goal by comparing strategies to “the standard.”
It is just to compare in each video with my certain sequence of rolls how one strategy will do vs how “the standard” would fare.
@@ColorUp And that is admirable. A suggestion modification: Bet and lay the don't pass and then bet the come 3 times and take odds. Now you have hedged that 7.
@ColorUp Does that mean that you will be playing both strategies at the same time? It would be helpful to see them both in action against the same dice rolls.
Sometimes, but many times I’ll just show results of the standard
Why is it called 3 point molly? Like who's molly? Or was the inventor trippin' on mollies 😂
Bc you gotta be taking Molly to think you're not gonna lose at craps.
So I looked up why it's called Molly. Don't have an answer about the strategy but Molly as in the drug is called that because molly is short for molecule referring to the structure of the drug. Why 3 point molly? Still don't know haha
I can't help but feel you would have won a lot more money playing the field with all of your rolls. lol
Well if one out of every 2 rolls is a field number you can win money, if the rolls are 1 in 3 are a field number, you are losing money.
Why not just place all the bets (you can choose your numbers) and do $40 on the 4/10, $50 on the 5/9 and $60 on the 6/8, which is the same size of the bets here. I think you get a better payout on the placed 4/10 at 9:5, giving you $72 payout as opposed to the $70 payout of the method shown here?
This is about getting lowest house edge, these bets are all under 1% - place bets on 5/9 are 4% place bets on 4/10 even higher. You can certainly do place bets, I personally prefer them.
GREAT job of coming back!
However, I AM going to CONTINUE to criticize you for NOT protecting your Pass line and Come bets by just putting $2 measly dollars on craps EVERY TIME you make those bets!
Look at how many times you lost your Pass line bets by the large number of craps you threw on the come-out rolls!
If you would've done that, you would win $14 EVERY time and MAKE an ADDITIONAL $4, and that makes a SIGNIFICANT difference!!!
And let's say you establish your point and lose your $2 craps bet. SO, WHAT because:
You are GOING to make MUCH more when you HIT your Pass line or come bets with the odds, so it's BETTER to lose $2 - that you're going to make back ANYWAY - than to KEEP LOSING $10!!!!!
It's a NO-BRAINER!!!!!
To this day i STILL DON'T understand why you DON'T protect those bets???!!!
Your content is GREAT, and I LOVE watching your videos, but if you have a flaw - and this one IS a MAJOR one in MY opinion - I am going to point it out!
I feel you are doing a disservice to your viewers by NOT doing this or mentioning this and I suggest going forward that you ALWAYS start putting a craps bet with you Pass line and Come bets!
Thanks for your thoughts. You just happen to be incorrect.
For starters this strategy is about playing the lowest house edge way possible. This strategy keeps the house edge under 0.37% the craps bet Carrie’s a house edge bet of 11.11%
Now, it feels good when the craps bet protects the pass line bet, but it will lose more than it protects.
8 out of 36 times you will roll a 7/11
24 out of 36 rolls you will establish a point number
4 out of 36 times you will roll 2/3/12
So you will win with the craps bet 4 times and lose 32 times.
Let’s assume your $2 bet. You will win four times for $28 and you will lose 32 times for - $64
This is terrible math. You say “it’s only $2”. But it adds up.
It is a really bad idea to risk losing $64 to only win back $28
With $28 win, you protect your $10 pass line bet almost for a three rolls, but the remaining 33 rolls you are just throwing money away.
I do understand it might feel nice when you see a string of a couple pass line loses in a row and you have that protection, but that is the rare occasion.
Mostly it’s just throwing money away.
But did you FORGET about what I said by making UP those $2 for your Come bet, Pass line and place bet wins???@@ColorUp