The Rarest Item in TF2
Вставка
- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- Source information and caveats below!
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Twitter: / zesty_jesus
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Music:
Stardust Speedway Zone Act 1 - Sonic Mania [OST]
[Blue Archive] Mitsukiyo - Mischievous Step
[Blue Archive] Mitsukiyo - Lemonade Diary
Pink Guy - Fried Noodles [DVNZXL Remix]
Sources and Caveats
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Certain types of items were omitted from consideration, specifically glitched items, promotional items, and gifts from Valve. Quantifying the statistical probability of occurrence for these items is not possible, for obvious reasons (i.e. a gift is a gift).
Australium Drop Spreadsheet:
docs.google.co...
Article on TF2's unusual drop rate:
tf2finance.com/...
Item Counts, Item Grade Abundance, Stat-Clock Abundance:
TF2tools.net
TF2 Skin Sticker and Pattern Information:
steamcommunity...
CSGO's case odds:
www.pcgamesn.c...
www.csgo.com.c...
By law, Chinese companies must publicly display the results of all lottery results (including case openings):
www.csgo.com.c...
Given the abysmal state of item servers, previous versions of the TF2tools webpages were accessed via the Wayback machine:
web.archive.or...
Item grade abundances change with the gradual increase in the number of trade-ups performed. As time goes on, lower grade items are exchanged for higher grade items (hence elite grades going from 0.8% to 1% over the course of about a year, reflecting item consumption and generation, not a change in case odds).
Wear abundance changes are negligible over the lifespan of TF2 skins, unimpacted by trade-ups given the differing nature from CSGO trade-ups.
Note again that the odds shown in the Steam guide are not official, and appear to be largely derived from guesswork or first-order estimates.
Hi ohne fans
Ok, i have to give it you, i feel personally attacked
Hello
Hi 👋
I saw his vid and went to go watch the full vid
I'm not even a fan it just showed up in my feed and I was more interested in the actual video, not a stupid short of it, hate when people do that low effort slop farming
Oh boy, I can't wait to experience the inevitable heat death of the universe while tirelessly unboxing crates
90% of gamblers quit before they hit it big
The question is how much money we would need for that. Is the world annual bugget be enough?
not the universe, just the sun. get your facts right
That phrase.... Heat death of the universe. What's that about other than the awesome Fila Brazilia song of the same name?
More realistically, you'd run out of cases long before you even hit that point
Still not as rare as getting a 10/10 workshop cosmetic
There are some awesome cosmetics and good warpaints on the workshop THAT ACTUALLY FIT THE GAME'S ARTSTYLE but Valve knows its playerbase and will continue to add horrible neon vomit warpaints and meme cosmetics.
go make one
Didn’t soldier’s gigachad or medic’s bogdanoff skin get a 10/10? I blame ceno0 if they did
Beaten and bruised is in the game!
Probably trolls that are paid by competitors that will rank workshop 1/10 on purpose
Imagine some dude just unboxes that rifle in the next week or something-
Update: It has been about two weeks and I have not heard anything about someone unboxing this rifle, so-
Im already calling it
Dream playing tf2:
It is possible of course. It takes 521 billion years according to probability alone, but as is always the nature of probability, you never know. Hell, in theory you could go through all 16 quintillion unboxings and STILL not get it. That'd be an astonishing anti-miracle but it's possible!
i remember a friend of mine unboxing a rare item from a case after becoming a p2p and selling it for like 5 bucks, he just said he didnt care about the money he didnt like it and thats it
if anyone could it would be zesty himself
Every day, Zesty just sounds like he is 1 funny hat away from killing himself.
+1
I really should make a Skins 101 video. Seems like quite a few people still don't know the difference between decorated weapons and warpaints.
that sounds not only informative but highly original, go for it
Tf2 community monkey IQ as always
since when were there 2
i think the next best question is to ask how much money would be spent trying to get the rarest skin.
Please I don’t get it
Then imagine a valve employee just casually creating that warpaint just to fuck with us
@@user-defined-X ahyes
I love how Zesty adds more YTP style edits, it's like we are watching his decent into madness in real time with each video.
Jack FuuFing ShiihS
we the audience, is slowly watching as zesty goes fucking haywire-ass insane, each upload
On his 2nd channel, all his shorts are just YTPs
I love the irony of the rarest known item of it's kind being known as the "misfortunate" medigun 4:13
At this point, the glitchy stuttering effect has pretty much become Zesty's catchphrase.
it's beautiful
franzj does that too sometimes
First of all, what a great video, I was aware the Golden Frying Pan wasn't the rarest item in the game but I wasn't aware of how rare we were gonna get.
Secondly, my brain would have died trying to do all the math you had to do to make this video so, again good job.
Finally, I love the editing, specifically how you censor swears by using the same technique as YTPs, having the word reverse itself midway.
All in all, good shihs.
Well the math is just multiplication and division. The hard part of this was probably finding the actual odds of certain things, or Zesty happening to know the number of seconds in a year.
Bib
Fuf
killstreak kit added to rarest weapon: a m i a f u c k i n g j o k e t o y o u ?
makkor is that you
@@thenumber24 Nah, just a guy who liked the picture and uses it too.
This just sounds like a challenge. Sure, you need 521 billion years if you open a box per second... BUT... what if you had lots of people opening them simultaneously?
Get all 8 billion people on earth to do it you'll get it done in 65 years. It'll be faster as we can get the new borns to unbox when they are capable of doing so.
@@niranu78 get everyone 3 computers so it only takes about 22.5 years
@@niranu78 BASED Babies
Well since valve has damn near abandoned this game bots are still around. So if you had multiple bot accounts programmed to do nothing but open crates you could manage it eventually. Granted it'd take fucking modern day NASA levels of storage and AI to do it. an inventory can only get so full
I think the case will go into extinction before we unbox it.
"If unboxing is sure to result in pain and suffering, then you mustn't unbox!"
Zesty Jesus said that
And I say he knows a little bit more about unboxing than you do pall, because he invented it!
And then he perfected it so that no living man could best him in the ring of honor.
Then he used his fight money to buy two of every unusuals on the market
And then he is horded them in his backpack
And then he deleted every single one
And from that day forward every time a bunch of unusuals are in one place it's called a mistake!
Unless it's a trade server!
The fact that Battle Scarred is the rarest skin quality really surprised me, and further surprising is that the odds are skewed into being Not Too Bad™️ in general, with Field Tested and Minimal Wear being most and second most common, respectively
I mean I already had a gut feeling it wasn't an even 20% split for them all, but I really expected Battle Scarred and Well Worn to be most frequent because...well, that'd just kinda be expected from a profit perspective
Almost nobody would willingly want the worst weapon qualities, barring skins that have unique deteriorations with wear or, of course, the rarity factor poised in this video, but most would prefer the skins to be perfectly clean or at least close as can be to it, ergo being more likely to get scratched up trash would push consumers to buying more War Paint cases and, by extension, keys
The copium of the madmen who still unbox war paint cases
It's purely statistical value. There's no other factor like demand or anything. Sure, it's like the worst wear ever. But since it's statistically rare it gets jumped into the pile.
Please for the love of god do not even HOPE of thinking you can pull this off. At that point you'd get richer by betting at a Casino everyday or playing the Lottery.
Depends a lot on the war paint/skin, the weapon in general (a soda popper in anything less than minimal wear looks horrible) and just the roll of the dice application of all of it.
@@ludwigiapilosa508
Honestly I've always hated how the Soda Popper gets painted anyway, mostly because the Crit-a-Cola cans get painted over, which just makes it look like a fucked up Force-a-Nature
Really it should've been the Force that became one of the War Paint candidates in the first place, and I don't think I'll ever get an answer as to why the Soda Popper was picked over it
I find it so hard to believe that battle scarred is the rarest, I get that and field tested at least half the time
If we want a good example on how ridiculous these odds are to statistically the rarest item in TF2, it would pretty much be around the same odds of you finding the same pattern Spinda in Pokemon
8:23
If I open one case per second, the minimum time required to maybe get this item is
*ONE SECOND*
There's a chance that it'll drop after the first unboxing
Phenomenal editing! Using a mixed version of Pink Guy's Fried Noodles hit me right in the feels and was probably the most appropriate song to cap off a video about one in quintillion odds.
I gotta say Zesty I really appreciate that cut in of you trying to explain how ridiculously low those odds are in a way we would actually understand other than “Wowzah big number”
When you're so early that the video doesn't show up in the uploader's channel
If Dream started doing TF2 unboxings he'd probably get it in a week.
Another great informative video! Keep up the work
Spellbound virtual ViewFinder and the double spelled poisoned shadows antlers are pretty big tier items
this was realy well edited, great video!
With all these big numbers, this feels like watching the GameTheory video where they calculate how many possible Mario Maker levels there are.
Knew it was going to be the white Macaw, that weird palette with white is screaming for this type of bs.
Finally you did a video about skins
Thanks for the very wacky numbers on the screen and also for making me aware my balloonicorn sniper rifle is somehow special by having the X one it, that's neat.
I think a follow up to this should be "how much money would Valve make if someone opened 1 case per second for that many years
0:48 dang isnt that TC2 golden pan image
How is your dragon fury warpaint covered in blood?
he has a battle scarred one, which dropped for about a day before valve changed it to always be factory new
I literally haven't played a video game in months, and haven't played TF2 in at least a year or two.
Why the fuck am i still watching this
This is some Top Shelf content. It's cool learning these insights from a real TF2 High Roller. This really puts the Nail in the Coffin of the myth that the Burning Flames Team Captain is the rarest TF2 item. With one of these items, you'll be Dressed to Kill.
I remember back in my trading days, I started a collection of vintage weapons, focusing specifically on off-level ones. I grew bored of it, and eventually crafted the whole lot into scrap. roughly 4 backpacks full :P
Didn't know such rare odds were possible for tf2 skins, thanks for such an interesting video!
So what you're saying is, either:
A) I unbox the rarest warpaint
B) I got broke first
C) The heat death of the universe happens
Well, I'm a betting man, and that looks like a 1/3 chance to me!
Any time zesty talks statistics I get a serious sense of cosmic dread
This reminds me when Archimo mentioned the odds of a Strange Unusual Elite Grade Factory New being unboxed and someone ended up unboxing one days later
See, but if I get two or maybe even three computers all unboxing simultaneously… now we’re getting somewhere
still higher than the chances of my crush texting me back
9:15 Schools after years of lessons:
Still less rare than an update where Spy gets safety scissors for a knife
Blue archive music in the background had me tweaking thinking i left the app open
In today's video we learn what will burn out first: unboxing-centric TF2bers or the sun?
The cosmetic they gave exclusively to Notch, minecraft creator: *laughs in unobtainable*
7:30
Roughly the chance of me finding a good job and enough money to buy me a house.
Watch as the next skin he unboxes is this one just like the Golden Frying Pan he did.
Woo boy!
Those items sure are rare!
This was a good use of 10 minutes. Thank you mr content man.
"House alwaise win!"
Hot damn Zesty, I've didn't notice you playing Fallout New Vegas
Sounds like Dream needs to roll a Max White Gem Macaw Masked War Paint.
It's always nice to see a zesty upload
Because Im a stupid nerd that wanted to test it out and to go along with putting thigns in perspective:
I used the formula 1-((16,449,210,667,293,809,999/16449210667293810000)^X) to find the chance of getting the desired outcome after X attempts.
At the rate of 1 attempt per second:
After one year: 0.0000000001918487192988301573745454494823658776530502428786842%
After 15 years: 0.0000000028777307894438061329670716322897130092237442842370127%
After 55 years: 0.0000000105516795608890905788339949989401084284523714035534253%
We have to calculate 55,000,000,000 years in advance for the odds of it happening ONCE to reach 1%. ONE. PERCENT.
Also, that 521 billion years he brought up? Yeah, the cumulative odds are at 63.212% chances of it happening ONCE after 16,449,210,667,293,810,000 attempts.
(Thank you WolframAlpha, for being able to do calculations with exponents in the quintillions)
2:35 Let's see Paul Allen's unusual
it’s always a good day when a video about a video game weapon skin makes me aware of my own mortality and impermanence in this universe.
thanks zesty.
I think the best way to wrap it up is the sun will explode 100 times before you think about unboxing this bullsh
All this math over a white parrot skin that will outlive our sun.
My guess - Conscientious Objector without an Anime character on it.
You couldn't open one case per second, though; accounting for the animation that plays during, the physical input of selecting a key/case and accepting it to be opened, and taking time to process mentally whether or not this was the item.
This would work, however, if you considered having multiple computers through which you cycled the unboxing, perhaps with a servant going through the menu selection, or the development of a case opening script.
And going off of this logic, why only have one person do this? TF2 has an active player base of around 100,000 players, right? If we gathered the world's debt for ourselves and had every active player open one crate per second (not accounting for mental fatigue or physical decay), we could easily get this item in our hands in the next (approximately) 5,216,010.49 years.
Oh wait, never mind, the item server's down.
Just keep in mind there are only 500 jungle jackpot cases in existence
Man, and I thought a Strange Unusual Factory New Killer Bee Scattergun was insanely hard to get, but that specific variant of Macaw Masked is LITERALLY impossible to get.
0:03 ME2 Afterlife lower level, nice.
First time seeing a video created by you.
Great content! Thank you!
If the whole of the human population dedicated themselves entire existence to opening crates then it is possible to open one in about 65 years.
That's not even factoring in the fact that there are a finite amount of macaw masked cases. There aren't enough cases to reach that billions of years of constant unboxing, so it is 100% impossible past a certain point.
Honestly people want factory new stuff so calculating battle scarred might be true for rarest but not most desired
The joji intro hits, been bumping Burbank a ton recently ‘longside the changing color of the leaves
All I heard was, there’s a chance
I'm loving the recent trend in your videos of buzzing audio and reversing audio for clever censorship, it's hilarious
i like how zesty jesus used the typical colors 2 golden frying pan for this instead of the actual tf2 golden frying pan picture
"So you're saying I have a chance"
That awkward moment when some kid who doesn't know any better unboxes something similar to this rarest item, doesn't know what Unusual and Strange means, thinks its bad, and trashes it.
Strange Unusual with Halloween spells attached on is also quite rare, if somebody own a "Forest Fire Flamethrower Strange Unusual Isotope battle-scared with the 'Spectral Flame' spell" he's pretty lucky cuz not only he has a flamthrower that is isotope, strange and green paint but he can also throw green fire on the ennemies which is insanely good looking
he did the monster math. propah graveyard smash
0:46 hey thats the pan from typical colors 2
Finally
Roblox ripoff thats still fun to play lol
@@Mustard_Man frequent lag spikes 🦅
@@sn1p1n fr
Actually its the unusual golden frying pan with ONE owner making it as rare as the nail gun
i cant get the idea out of my head of someone who is problably watching this vid and actually commit into the idea of trying to get this, despite the chances being...basicly impossible
I like how Blue Archive soundtrack plays in the conclusion. Like yeah, at this pace the sun will go out before I get Hina, too.
You clearly never went to Eric's birthday party in '07 where he got three in a row
imagine a valve employee sees this video, generates this skin and then sells it for like a billion dollars
I think by far the funniest part of this is that the actual gun is ugly as hell and probably wouldn't fetch a good price on the market at all if it's rarity wasn't put into context
You could still unbox the rarest item before all mass in the universe is converted into iron stars, so it is still technically possible to occur during the degenerate era assuming humans maintain the tf2 trade servers via constructing an extra-solar civilization and if protons do not decay.
‘So you’re saying there’s a chance.’
I image a group of people will form in some time just to try the impossible.
I like that these videos are slowly just becoming informative youtube poops.
What is- WhahW- the rar aaa- oo- snees portal 2 🔥🔥
I wasn't expecting to laugh within literally 3 seconds, but once again your content is still some of the funniest on the platform while still being informative as fuck
the next day someone unboxs the rarest skin and zesty has a stroke
Early congratulations on your Strange Cool Battle-Scarred White Gem Macaw Masked Sniper Rifle!
Stop making this case more expensive it went up 42% because of the other guys video
Just watched this from ohnepixel vod, proceeded to unbox factory new macaw masked strange, on my 2/2 case from contracker.
This video inspired me to do some digging to see if this (or something close) has actually been unboxed, and while its not a *white* gem, I did actually find a strange unusual macaw masked blue gem war paint on a search through TF2's most valuable backpacks, figured I'd start there since those would likely be the only ones with that kind of buying power, and lo and behold the #2 backpack on the list has one, which based on this info, would likely make it the statistically rarest item in the entire game that actually exists.
The rarest item in my opinion is the paint "fuck you I made this" that some guy made by editing the item servers (the items were actually real because of a glitch) and it later got deleted
Well, since we're going off statistical odds, The rarest thing is a Spy using something other than the Kunai
This is a very legit video but with a conspiracy theory feel to it, and he does look the part
Ummmm, was the first 4 seconds intentional or am I wrong?
yes
@@ZestyJesus agreed
if every tf2 player opened 1 crate per second for the next 100 years, maybe we will have something like 0.5% chance for someone to get it.
Welp this video just decided what im doing for the rest of my life
Just because of this video, someone is going to be unboxing crates trying to get that white sniper rifle while the Earth rips apart and shatters as God pours his wrath upon this wicked world
And that guy is not going to get that rifle
So you're telling me golden frying pans are more common than Mirage Island?
Where there's a will there's a way. Just get all 8 1 billion people on the planet to open one box per second and you'll have your item in only 64 years!
:Me a enjoyer of unusual warpaints
:Hhhhhh, *pulls out wallet*
I love the ytp references