Hi Evolution! Yes - It looks like a real soaker for Southern CA later this week. And maybe even some surf. Hooray! Thanks as always for your contribution!
Thanks Mark. It appears we are on the down slope of this modokie La Niña. A ice free southern ocean is looking promising for a better than average early start to my favorite part of the world. Hope the atmosphere cooperates !😎
Hi Tim - Thanks so much for your contribution as always. Yes, hopefully La Nina is fading out, and hopefully for a good long time. Really wanting to see pressure over the North Pacific really shift downward. It's been a long stretch (since 2015) since we've really had a neutral pressure pattern. And yes, that Southern Ocean ice sheet has totally collapsed, or at least the imagery looks much better. Maybe it always did that this time of year. Just don't know.
Thanks Mark! I hope you folks on the coast get whatever amount of precipitation and snow you need…..Here in NM we’re preparing for the high temperature records to be smashed all week long . We are talking by 6-8 degrees in some areas . It will begin to melt the meager snowpack we have which spells serious trouble for us. As always , I’ll be here hoping you begin to see signs down the road of this La Niña relenting .
Hi Ronaldo - Thanks so much for your report. Unfortunately, I'm sorry to hear the bad news. It's most interesting to see how none of the weather that is pushing into California will penetrate deeper into the Southern Tier states. I noticed that in the snow forecasts for this latest series of storms. no real snow is forecast to make it beyond the Sierra. This suggests the jet is very weak and it's a miracle that it even makes it to California. Everyone that depends on water from behind the Hoover Dam is likeley in trouble for the coming years, and they were already in trouble. At this point we're hoping for a major change in the PDO, and even that is likely low odsd in happening in the next few years. But I'll keep hoping.
Thanks Mark. At about 8:00 you said the cutoff for So Cal from the southern hemi is 117, I think you meant 170? Not to be alarmist but how could model updates have anything to do with not showing any ice in Antarctic? I've never seen that in the models before. I would not think that past models would show ice where there is none on a large scale.
Hi Bones - good to hear from you. Ah, regarding the cutoff, I meant to say the cutoff is roughly at 117W, which would be a 180 degree swell. That's not to say it can't be further east, but in general that's a good rule of thumb. Regarding the ice line, I just don't recall seeing the southern hemi model with so little ice. Maybe it's just bad memory on my part, or maybe something has changed in the tech. If you've seen a similar ice pattern in the past at this time of year, please let me know.
@@Stormsurf001 Hi Mark, I just checked the latest Stormsurf Surf Forecast Tool for the southern hemi Pacific. If you click part way through you can see them build in 0 to 2 foot waves in an area down where the ice should be. Maybe they are just trying to fix the model and there really is ice there. Whew that was kinda scary I don't like to see no ice in Antarctic but maybe it was just a modelling problem.
Aloha Mark, great forecast as always thank you so very much! I surf today at Rocky point the waves were small but fun hopefully tomorrow the waves pick up a little bit.
Hi John - Thanks so much! Yeah - I saw some nice waves yesterday at your spot. At least you all hae some semi real surf. It's kinda lake like over here. at least the mountains are trying to get some snow.
@@Stormsurf001 Aloha Mark, i hope that you are having a great week. The surf has been around head high all week, and today we got the latest good swell and the waves at Rocky Point were 4-6 feet today and just perfect. i hope that you are having a good day surfing too.
Hey Mark, looks like the PDO for Jan 2025 has dropped again. It's -1.32 and is the third month of decline. Not bad considering that Oct 2024 was -3.80. Trying not to get my hopes up ...
@@jakemarlow8998 Jake - that is great news! Maybe, just maybe we're headed for at least neutral. I'd take that any day of the week! And a near neutral PDO during a weak La Nina is even better.
Real weather coming into socal next week :). The MJO must be right on time 😎
Hi Evolution! Yes - It looks like a real soaker for Southern CA later this week. And maybe even some surf. Hooray! Thanks as always for your contribution!
Thanks Mark. It appears we are on the down slope of this modokie La Niña. A ice free southern ocean is looking promising for a better than average early start to my favorite part of the world. Hope the atmosphere cooperates !😎
Hi Tim - Thanks so much for your contribution as always. Yes, hopefully La Nina is fading out, and hopefully for a good long time. Really wanting to see pressure over the North Pacific really shift downward. It's been a long stretch (since 2015) since we've really had a neutral pressure pattern. And yes, that Southern Ocean ice sheet has totally collapsed, or at least the imagery looks much better. Maybe it always did that this time of year. Just don't know.
@@Stormsurf001hopefully it will 🤞🏽
Loving that integrated model!
@@Sivdog369 Thanks! It can be found on the wave model page. Hope you're doing well.
Thanks for the report new board so let's have those good afternoon winds🤙🏾
Hi Nate - You are most welcome. New boards- Hooray! Nothing better than that. Hope you score after work!
Thanks!
Thanks so much Our Predicament! Your contributions are always appreciated! Hope you have a great week.
Thanks Mark! I hope you folks on the coast get whatever amount of precipitation and snow you need…..Here in NM we’re preparing for the high temperature records to be smashed all week long . We are talking by 6-8 degrees in some areas . It will begin to melt the meager snowpack we have which spells serious trouble for us. As always , I’ll be here hoping you begin to see signs down the road of this La Niña relenting .
Hi Ronaldo - Thanks so much for your report. Unfortunately, I'm sorry to hear the bad news. It's most interesting to see how none of the weather that is pushing into California will penetrate deeper into the Southern Tier states. I noticed that in the snow forecasts for this latest series of storms. no real snow is forecast to make it beyond the Sierra. This suggests the jet is very weak and it's a miracle that it even makes it to California. Everyone that depends on water from behind the Hoover Dam is likeley in trouble for the coming years, and they were already in trouble. At this point we're hoping for a major change in the PDO, and even that is likely low odsd in happening in the next few years. But I'll keep hoping.
Thanks Mark. At about 8:00 you said the cutoff for So Cal from the southern hemi is 117, I think you meant 170?
Not to be alarmist but how could model updates have anything to do with not showing any ice in Antarctic? I've never seen that in the models before. I would not think that past models would show ice where there is none on a large scale.
Hi Bones - good to hear from you. Ah, regarding the cutoff, I meant to say the cutoff is roughly at 117W, which would be a 180 degree swell. That's not to say it can't be further east, but in general that's a good rule of thumb.
Regarding the ice line, I just don't recall seeing the southern hemi model with so little ice. Maybe it's just bad memory on my part, or maybe something has changed in the tech. If you've seen a similar ice pattern in the past at this time of year, please let me know.
@@Stormsurf001 Hi Mark, I just checked the latest Stormsurf Surf Forecast Tool for the southern hemi Pacific. If you click part way through you can see them build in 0 to 2 foot waves in an area down where the ice should be. Maybe they are just trying to fix the model and there really is ice there. Whew that was kinda scary I don't like to see no ice in Antarctic but maybe it was just a modelling problem.
Aloha Mark, great forecast as always thank you so very much! I surf today at Rocky point the waves were small but fun hopefully tomorrow the waves pick up a little bit.
Hi John - Thanks so much! Yeah - I saw some nice waves yesterday at your spot. At least you all hae some semi real surf. It's kinda lake like over here. at least the mountains are trying to get some snow.
@@Stormsurf001 Aloha Mark, i hope that you are having a great week. The surf has been around head high all week, and today we got the latest good swell and the waves at Rocky Point were 4-6 feet today and just perfect. i hope that you are having a good day surfing too.
Most Excellent as always ¿
Thanks Ray!
Hey Mark, looks like the PDO for Jan 2025 has dropped again. It's -1.32 and is the third month of decline. Not bad considering that Oct 2024 was -3.80. Trying not to get my hopes up ...
@@jakemarlow8998 Jake - that is great news! Maybe, just maybe we're headed for at least neutral. I'd take that any day of the week! And a near neutral PDO during a weak La Nina is even better.
La Nina is faded, but instead we get neutral winter of 2025-2026 it doesn't show El Nino or La Nina on map
Thanks!
Hi Bob - Thanks so much for your donation! It's very much appreciated.