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Hi Patricio! Thanks for your report. Always appreciated. I'm so glad to hear you are back getting normal rain. And like you said, I suspect water temps are actually above normal if one discounts any cooler water coming up from Peru. then SST anomaly charts show warming the whole way down to Patagonia. So the warming pattern seems to be pretty well entrenched. I think that's good news for you!

Hi Bones - Thanks! Hopefully I'll be fine in the next few days. It's just a cold. I looked at the 12Z run and there's no change in the ice shelf. You were probably looking at the 06Z run. Either way, I'll keep my eyes on it. All the other southern oceans look normal. So weird.

Hi Bob - Thanks so much for you generous contribution! It's very much appreciated.

Hi Tim - Thanks so much for your ongoing contribution! Always appreciated. And thanks, I can't wait till I'm feeling better.

Sounds like you a member of Q-Non , how about keeping your Pro Trump ( means , no education) advice to yourself?

HI AnotherWorldView - yeah, I think it's just a cold. There's a bunch of variants of the normal winter bug going around. I took a Covid test and it was negative. I'll do it again today just to be sure. My guess is I just need to wait it out. But I can and probably will talk to my Doc about possible solutions. And yes, it's kinda amazing how well the southern hemi is doing for this time of year. Fingers crossed for more to come!

Hi Angel - Yeah it will just be a day or two and I should be fine...hopefully. But after doing the video I was wiped out. It took all the remaining energy I had just to eat dinner. Ha ha.

Hi Evolution - Thanks so much for your contribution! Yeah I'll be watching the PDO very closely now. Fingers crossed! And thanks - Can't wait to get over this cold.

Hi Humble Turkey! Thanks so much. Hopefully I'll be fine in the next few days.

Thanks so much John! Yes, hoping to be feeling better soon. So glad you will be scoring this week. Lot's of surf headed your way. Hope you score!

Hi Ra1der - For sure, I crashed hard after doing the video. Probably overdid it. So today I'm going real slow. Oh yeah, I have the new bouy server in hand. It's pretty easy now to just get it up and running. The old one is still chugging along though.

Hi Alex - Thanks for dialing in! Must be nice having warm water in Puerto Rico. I surfed over at Maria's and Wilderness many decades ago. Such a beautiful place!

Thanks Kneelo! Good to hear from you. Hope you are doing well.

@ just doing some shaping

Hi Ray! Yes indeed - More rain and rainbows coming! But we'll have to wait another year for a new Super Bowl.

Funny ¿

Hi Ross - Thanks so much! Always trying to keep it interesting.

Hi Coach! Thanks so much for your contribution. Hope you can get some good afternoon surf this week.

Hi Nate! Thanks. Yes, hoping for real surf soon. So sorry to hear you had to suffer through this sickness too. Hopefully it will be over in a few days.

Hi Midnight - You are most welcome. And yeah, hoping to be back to normal in a few days. Thanks for asking.

Where's the bouy sea temperature data?

Hi Our Predicament - Thanks so much for your contribution! Not sure what you mean when you say buoy sea temp data? The hi-res buoys only show swell heights, But the lower res buoys have the temp data here: www.stormsurf.com/cgi-bin/shiro.cgi?a=46069 All those buoys can be found on the top graphic here: www.stormsurf.com/buoy/mht/glob.html

@@Stormsurf001 I meant the subsurface temp analysis. That hasn't been in the videos the last couple weeks. I like watching the water move across the ocean from week to week

@OurPredicament Oh, I get it. The TAO equatorial subsurface temp profile. I didn't do it last week or this one to save time and I suspect the GODAS animation is the same if not better. But I'll include it next week per your request.

@@Stormsurf001 very kind of you. Thanks!

Hi Warren - If we can just get a real neutral year in 25-26 I'd be happy. Hope you're doing well.

Hi Bob - Thanks so much for your donation! It's very much appreciated.

Hi Evolution! Yes - It looks like a real soaker for Southern CA later this week. And maybe even some surf. Hooray! Thanks as always for your contribution!

@@jakemarlow8998 Jake - that is great news! Maybe, just maybe we're headed for at least neutral. I'd take that any day of the week! And a near neutral PDO during a weak La Nina is even better.

@@Sivdog369 Thanks! It can be found on the wave model page. Hope you're doing well.

Hi Bones - good to hear from you. Ah, regarding the cutoff, I meant to say the cutoff is roughly at 117W, which would be a 180 degree swell. That's not to say it can't be further east, but in general that's a good rule of thumb. Regarding the ice line, I just don't recall seeing the southern hemi model with so little ice. Maybe it's just bad memory on my part, or maybe something has changed in the tech. If you've seen a similar ice pattern in the past at this time of year, please let me know.

@@Stormsurf001 Hi Mark, I just checked the latest Stormsurf Surf Forecast Tool for the southern hemi Pacific. If you click part way through you can see them build in 0 to 2 foot waves in an area down where the ice should be. Maybe they are just trying to fix the model and there really is ice there. Whew that was kinda scary I don't like to see no ice in Antarctic but maybe it was just a modelling problem.

Hi Tim - Thanks so much for your contribution as always. Yes, hopefully La Nina is fading out, and hopefully for a good long time. Really wanting to see pressure over the North Pacific really shift downward. It's been a long stretch (since 2015) since we've really had a neutral pressure pattern. And yes, that Southern Ocean ice sheet has totally collapsed, or at least the imagery looks much better. Maybe it always did that this time of year. Just don't know.

@@Stormsurf001hopefully it will 🤞🏽

Hi John - Thanks so much! Yeah - I saw some nice waves yesterday at your spot. At least you all hae some semi real surf. It's kinda lake like over here. at least the mountains are trying to get some snow.

@@Stormsurf001 Aloha Mark, i hope that you are having a great week. The surf has been around head high all week, and today we got the latest good swell and the waves at Rocky Point were 4-6 feet today and just perfect. i hope that you are having a good day surfing too.

Thanks Ray!

Thanks so much Our Predicament! Your contributions are always appreciated! Hope you have a great week.

Hi Ronaldo - Thanks so much for your report. Unfortunately, I'm sorry to hear the bad news. It's most interesting to see how none of the weather that is pushing into California will penetrate deeper into the Southern Tier states. I noticed that in the snow forecasts for this latest series of storms. no real snow is forecast to make it beyond the Sierra. This suggests the jet is very weak and it's a miracle that it even makes it to California. Everyone that depends on water from behind the Hoover Dam is likeley in trouble for the coming years, and they were already in trouble. At this point we're hoping for a major change in the PDO, and even that is likely low odsd in happening in the next few years. But I'll keep hoping.

Hi Nate - You are most welcome. New boards- Hooray! Nothing better than that. Hope you score after work!

Wow Slade! That is a very generous contribution. Thanks so much I really appreciate it.

Also, it would be awesome if you could put the date in your titles or say the year in your intro please.

Thanks for the heads up! I'll go back and watch it in a sec. Also, the year is now posted in the thumbnail..the intro image that also has the title of the video in it. I started posting those on June 11, 2023

Oh, and I see the date and year are in the title of the video..but you have to open the video to see it. I for sure see the problem when trying to view older videos

Just watched that video from Feb 2023. It's pretty funny watching those older videos. Production quality sure needed some help. Ha ha. I see what you're saying about things now being similar to back then. But....that was the start of the development of El Nino with major Kelvin Waves in flight. Unfortunately we're nowhere near that. We're just trying to get one Kelvin Wave going. But to your point, I do think we are poised to transition out of La Nina. Thanks for digging up that video. Good info!

@jakemarlow8998 Hi Jake - I just noticed that thanks to your message. I'll dig deeper into it. All my servers are working fine so it must be NOAA related as you suggested.

Hi Jake - I just checked and the Jason-3 data on NOAAs site is updating as expected. Something is messed up on my server. I will dig into it.

@ Awesome, thanks Mark!

Many thanks E Slate for your contribution! Hope you're doing well and getting some waves.

Hi Kandace - Good question. You had previously mentioned (I think) that with this Modoki pattern one would expect a lot of backdoor fronts pushing down the US West Coast. And Yes, I would expect that to be the case. Maybe that is where we are finally headed now. It's just so hard to figure out what is actually happening. We're like part way in Modoki and part way in a regular La Nina pattern and the atmosphere is not responding clearly as one would figure it should. A head scratcher for sure.

Hi Tucker - thanks so much for your contribution! Always appreciated. And thanks for all your great surf video work! You're the best!

Hi Colin - Thanks so much for your kind words! And many thanks for your contribution. It's appreciated.

Yeah - i saw yesterday and nearly had a heart attack. Now it's back to more healthier accumulations. But I suspect it's going to flop around a few more times before getting locked into a specific pattern. Fingers crossed.

Hi Rav4 - you are most welcome. We're here to serve. And thanks so much for your contribution!

Hi Bang Bang - Yeah I seem to not recall the ice melt being so obvious in past years. if I were to guess it is likely due to NOAA finding a way to 1) either depict the Antarctic Ice in higher resolution in the model or 2) The raw satellite data used to image the ice has been upgraded, allow a higher resolution visualization in the wave model. Either way, it's certainly is a lot more noticeable, which is always a good thing. More detail counts to me! To part 2 of your question, the smaller the ice shelf down south the greater the surface area for storms to blow winds upon, and to get traction, therefore generating swell. Of notice there is actually a tiny southern hemi swell pushing up towards Southern CA from a gale in the deep Southeast Pacific a few days ago and another stronger one is forecast starting Wed (1/29). I never recall seeing southern hemi swells being generated in Jan/Feb. The root cause of that is something to explore and debate in the future. And yes, we got that late Nov swell you mentioned too. Is Winter no longer winter anymore? ha ha! Anyways, great question! Thanks.

Hi Sivdog - oh shoot, I literally wrote a note to myself after last weeks video and your comment to show the period chart, and then promptly forgot to read the note before producing this weeks video. I'll stick it more prominently on my desk for this coming weeks video. It is a great suggestion! So sorry. And at some point I'm going to build a period hindcast chart. Thanks again for your suggestion (and reminder).

​@@Stormsurf001no worries. It amazing you get that much information together on your videos as it is!😂

Hi Peter - Thanks so much!

Hi Tim - Hope you are doing well and thanks for the donation!

@ 🤙🏽 enjoying the rain. Finally ~

@@timkasten343 Yes - Finally some rain for Southern CA!

Hi Henry - Thanks so much for the report! Was wondering exactly what was going on in Southern CA. Glad you finally got a little bit of moisture. And more is forecast a week out.