Wages Are Beating Inflation | Animal Spirits 361
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- Опубліковано 3 лип 2024
- On episode 361 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: losing a family pet, the S&P 500 is not the economy, everything is up this year, the stock market is NOT a casino, wages are cumulative just like inflation, consumers keep consuming, ETH ETFs, the Ben Carlson streaming bundle, and more!
This episode is sponsored by Franklin Templeton. To learn more about the Franklin International Core Dividend Tilt Index ETF (DIVI), please visit: www.franklintempleton.com/inv...
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► 00:00 - Ad read
► 01:07 - Intro and Why Dogs are the Best Family Members
► 05:13 - Global Equity Markets
► 09:27 - Sentiment Check
► 13:44 - Gamestop
► 15:32 - Dave Portnoy on the Market
► 18:22 - Inflation
► 22:10 - Summer Travel
► 23:16 - Lower Income Spend Outpacing the Field
► 26:51 - The Fed
► 30:08 - OpenAI vs Scarlett Johansson
► 31:12 - Bitcoin
► 36:05 - Advertising Spend
► 39:44 - Low Cost of Living
► 41:55 - Streaming Bundles
► 43:26 - Ben Has a Broker Too
► 47:35 - Preparing for the JPM Corporate Challenge 3.5 Mile Run
► 48:51 - Recommendations
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions and is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See additional disclosures: www.ritholtzwealth.com/podcas.... “Likes” or other comments are not intended to be endorsements of Ritholtz Wealth Management, or their employees and are not compensated.
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This episode is sponsored by Franklin Templeton. To learn more about the Franklin International Core Dividend Tilt Index ETF (DIVI), please visit: www.franklintempleton.com/investments/options/exchange-traded-funds/products/21412/SINGLCLASS/franklin-international-core-dividend-tilt-index-etf/DIVI
Michael Batnick the type of guy to brag about how humble he is
Home prices went up 50%. The monthly P&I on a median priced home doubled. I'll never be able to afford a home. But at least my income went up slightly more than the price for the 'average' consumption bundle. Thanks for the good news, Ben.
I came to say exactly this. Anyone who didn’t own a home already needed their income to double to keep up with housing.
Agreed 100%. But hate when they act unnecessarily rosy. Real income and net worth skyrocketed under Trump yet have been flat under Biden. WSJ and Scott Galloway have been covering this
These investment bankers are never going to get peasant life.
@@lushlife6864Yea I never thought I’d feel so much like a peasant making $70,000/yr
Michael, so sorry about you losing Bianca. It's crazy how dogs just become such a big part of your life. It is always a tough time when they have to go. I'm happy that you got a full 12 years with her.
Sorry to hear about Michael's dog, it's always tough to lose a family member like that.
Sorry for the loss Michael. I also loved my doggie Scottie so much that I would cry at times over the years knowing that one day I’d have to say good bye. It’s hard. 🙏🐾
I'm out of contract since December 2021. So no.... My wages are not outpacing inflation. Not even close.
Source? Any data showing this?
Cool bro
RIP - literally the only loyalty on the planet
RIP Bianca, sending love Michael
Michael: Ben did you know when they opened their doors? Ben: 1776? Michael: close, 1947…..😂😂bro wtf.
It was a joke
I’m very sorry for your loss of Bianca Mike. Our pups 🐶 are all angels. 👼 you are in our thoughts.
Inflation hits low income folks harder as people feel it on a relative basis. For example a guy making 500k spends 5k on food and a guy making 100k spends essentially the same. When that doubles the guy making a 100k is now pay 10% of his income vs the 500k guy is now paying 2%. The increase in salary needs to be separated as many times salaries don’t increase as fast recent times not excepted.
literally everyone knows this
@@Nick-fd4nz that’s not what they were saying…or did I mishear? Did you listen to the podcast?
Good on you Michael, hope you and the fam are doing well
Im so sorry Michael about your dog. Im sure she was amazing and she will live through you forever. My dog had lymphoma too and we also had less than 1 day notice before the sleep date
Michael: So sorry to hear about your dog. We had a female boxer for 11 years, they are the best.
Michael, I find the timber in your voice very easy to listen to. It’s very soothing so don’t change a thing.
God, as a Canadian I can barely watch your show now It's like a horror story. Things are going so well in the US yet as a Canadian teacher my wages are literally 25% behind inflation since 2012, I know I'm a math teacher I keep an Excel spreadsheet 😂😢.
Why is it a horror story? Because the US doing well means I personally do poorly. My mortgage payment has increased 58%! Over the last 2 years since inflation took off. And the BOC can't cut, and if it does cut it can't cut very much until the Fed does. And if it does cut, then the 70 plus percent of goods that we import from the US will just become super expensive so it doesn't make my life any cheaper.
I'm in a monopoly industry there's nothing I can do about my wage. Literally all I can do is just hope the US goes into a recession.
Amen
Love Animal Spirits but wages are absolutely not beating inflation. Scott Galloway just did a Ted Talk on how bad the economy is, esp with regard to stagnating real income and net worth growth. Don’t piss on my leg and tell me it’s raining.
Same, love this show but they are out of touch on certain issues.
They’ve always been massively out of touch on a lot of issues to the point where they seem like industry plants.
That is close to a line Clint Eastwood spoke in The Outlaw Josey Wales.
If wages beat inflation for the next 5 year, let me know
Sorry for the loss of your doggo Michael.
good man Michael
Maybe for the top 10%. Definitely not the rest ofvus.
No, literally for the top 50% at the very least. That’s what the “median” represents
i just put my pittie down today Teddy :( ..... My best friend, an amazing companions, sorry Batnick about yours....i also pregrieved
We lost our 15 year old boxer last summer; she was awesome.
Can someone direct me to the source that looks at wages versus inflation? Thank you in advance
Fellas, interesting perspective from the UK after reading your email from 'flyover state guy'. His quoted figures there are very similar to those across the UK outside of London. Meal £20, utilities £70, studio room £400-500 etc. Salaries £40000. It's outgoings that really affect standard of living more than income I'd say
Favorite quote today was about the Big Short people were right once in a row and living off that since... so true.
Yeah, I liked that way of putting it, haha
They use QR code bank transfers for all transactions in Thailand. It makes cards and their respective fees redundant unless you need cash out from an ATM. It's a much better system.
Id like to see a chart of wages for the lowest incomes versus inflation for the lowest incomes. My hunch is total inflation is not consistent across all incomes and is highest for the lowest incomes.
Net worth isn’t outpacing inflation. Wages are only outpacing a manipulated CPI
Dexter season 4 was excellent!
There was a study done looking at after puerto ricans were able to freely move to the US, and how high the gdp per capita in puerto rico before people stopped moving to the mainland US. If I remember right, it was something like 1/3rd of the gdp per capita to basically equalize immigration. Of course that's with a language and cultural barrier. You'd think it would be significantly less moving between 2 mainland cities.
Nothing but love to the Batnicks for their loss.
Incomes have kept pace with inflation, yes(not in the non-nurse world of healthcare where I am at)-but the main difference that I think is causing so much of the despair is housing. If I were to buy my house today for the same price I paid in 2019, and change mortgages from my 2.6% to 7, I would literally be paying $25k more per year just in interest. Also, we pay $490/week for my 3 year old to go to daycare 3days per week. Daycare prices have exploded(2 years ago we literally walked in one day to a note on the door that said "Because of CPI coming in at 8.5%(or whatever it was), our prices will be going up 8.5% on July 1. Just as I think we are almost through the storm, my wife wants to start IVF again lol.
My main issue with the inflation data is that is doesn't represent reality. Most people also aren't in the stock market
PE ratios are high. S&P PE is crazy high.
Dogs are such wonderful friends. Sorry, Michael.
If you want to feel what it’s like living in a different area buy a second home. We did it in 2020 and it’s so refreshing going to another place where it’s your home.
michael is a fun guy
I was very close to popping a mushroom on screen, but I contained myself.
Sorry about your dog. I can relate.
Sorry Michael! All dogs go to heaven! 🙏
I thought Ben's observation why investing in the stock market is the opposite of casino gambling was very sharp. Then Michael repeats it almost verbatim…"as you said". Pretty hilarious.
I think what Portnoy meant with his statement is that people in Congress are able to make insider trades legally, where the rest of us are not. He’s been going at them lately.. which seems fair, considering some of their portfolio returns and short term trades
Rip to your doggy
No more bundles! I wish it was even more selective. Download and pay for the channel apps you watch.
On comedy, waiting for Happy Gilmore 2.
Very nice shirt, Ben! Where'd you get it?
Looking at the wage change in the low income range ignores the retired an and fixed income class and may be thrown off by the multiple part time job holders with three low income jobs.
The reason why sentiment is so bad to put it an analogy -people feel like this is a Sunday evening which is a holiday and everyone should feel happy but everyone is anticipating the Monday morning already so they feel pretty sad.
Unbelievable. Who's wages, not mine.
We can't use the BLS data when they keep changing the metrics. You have upper middle class shopping at Walmart and Aldi now. Luxury goods taking a bath. We'll be fine as long as there is room left on the credit cards, but when people stop paying them....worry.
Also, those small businesses, just based on my experience are single member LLC's. Look at how many job revisions they did last year. The BLS added too many jobs just based on business registrations. I have 3 LLC's and its literally just ME.
Hilarious title. Lie's damned lie's and statistics would be much better. Sorry about the dog Batnick. I've had Many And outlived them all I currently have 2 Hawaii rescues I'm bringing back to the mainland. 🤙
In what world is this title true and inflation is accumulative, not nominal. lets see a bigger time frame
Michael’s reaction when Ben said he didn’t know what Ashley Madison was, is the reason I love those two.
They feel like family now somehow…
Pacers
Everything is going up so it is all relative. You have more but everything costs more so it is not really a personal gain. It is all relative. My house went up but so did every other house.......
15:31 portnoy 🙄 we’ve all heard this line 1000x. Not rigged, it’s just hard… and time is a precious tool.
I feel like having a guy for everything is a very Northeast thing. 😂
Does anyone even know anyone, who knows anyone, who has a friend of a friend, that's getting 20% more pay than in 2019? It's not that these figures are an outright lie, it's worse. It's fun with numbers. Probably based on the huge rise in minimum wage or something. I pulled up my tax returns to be sure. I'm basically right back exactly to 2018 pay.
Ben, Michael just wait till your kids are teens. Unfortunately you'll see the impact of social media on their mental health
☝🏻
Do u guys care if I skip to favorites?
Hey, we put the timestamps for a reason, watch what you want!
the Kid working a Minimum wage job today has the Same federal minimum wage his dad Had 15 years ago in 2009 the last time it Was raised. $7.25 an hour Was a joke in 09 its A Downright insult in 24🎉🎉🎉🎉. It's a party Ben
where is the link to the newsletter Sams list?
I see this as Bush Sr. President when the market crashed going into second election.
Sorry Michael … though stuff.
Google AI scraping Reddit so it can tell users to put glue on their pizza. Michael Batnick thinks this is good and will change the world.
I think the answer is people don't manage money well and don't react to changes in inflation
Where do these dudes get these numbers from? SMH
if you want to see the data: awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/05/animal-spirits-wages-are-beating-inflation/
@@TheCompoundNews bottom half got a “raise” but literally everything went up and cancelled out the increase. Plus you get taxed more when u get a raise or ot so u net maybe half. Like downtown Josh brown said in a previous episode it’s the investor class that’s doing well right now. My problem with these guys is they’re looking at numbers but not really interacting with the bottom 30% in an intimate way obviously. Between the cost of living going up along with interest rates the bottom 30% can barely cover living expenses and are putting everything on credit especially trips and experiences via buy now pay later etc. These guys are well off n god bless them but they’re so far removed from the lower class but they speak confidently about it based on articles with stats n charts that support their narrative. I think they should focus on educating us on how to invest and get to where they n their peers are financially. Stop trying to convince us the guy with 2 kids making 80k a year that don’t invest don’t know how to didn’t go to school for finance like these 2 ain’t living paycheck to paycheck while these 2 and they’re clients stock portfolios are hitting all time highs every other week.
Relax we will turn this growth around by electing a Republican president
The title is just completely unrelatable. I wonder what professions this covers. Definitely not the service industry.
The title of this video?……………SMH…………you all are in a bubble! People are hurting paying 40-50% more for stuff like food, housing is up 30% for apartments. Wife and I know of no one that is doing as great as they are apparently in the Hamptons, DC or Palm Beach.