Living Paycheck-to-Paycheck | Animal Spirits 367
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- Опубліковано 6 лип 2024
- On episode 367 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: U.S. domination of the world stock market, how credit spreads work, how the 401k revolution changed the stock market, Americans are rich, an economic slowdown is here, the U.S. labor force is huge, everyone wants to travel, the $5 meal deal inflation indicator, and much more!
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► 00:00 - YCharts Ad Read
► 01:29 - Intro
► 03:14 - American Stocks
► 08:41 - What's Happening with Mega Brands?
► 12:00 - Michael's Favorite Market Indicator
► 14:01 - The State of the Economy
► 18:19 - Household Net Worth
► 20:37 - Everyone Is Traveling This Summer
► 22:38 - The American Worker
► 26:16 - Inflation
► 35:19 - Private Equity
► 37:13 - Consumer Sentiment
► 41:40 - Airplane Etiquette
► 42:55 - Recommendations
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This episode is sponsored by YCharts. Get 20% off your initial YCharts Professional subscription when you start your free YCharts trial through Animal Spirits (new customers only). Sign up at: go.ycharts.com/animal-spirits
I am in my early 60s and retired at 53. Lots of people gave me pushback because they had difficulty grasping the concept of not working if you don’t have to. I looked at my life as stages. I earned everything I have now through a lot of hard work, but I owe it to myself to “stop and smell the roses” in my final stage of life. In my case I left the country after I retired and live in Latin America. It allowed me to get away from all the negative things happening in America while appreciating my new environment. I have yet to meet anyone who regrets retirement.
I will be retiring in September. My wife and I (both 50) are moving by to Europe and travel for the next few years. I cannot wait.
Remote work is a big factor in women being able to return to the workforce and have a family. Take away remote work and a lot of those women will leave
31:40 "You just wanted him to look like you" 🤣
Weekly segment of Ben saying inflation isn't/hasn't been bad. This is what I'm here for.
Would like to see Chipotle experiment with customers making their own and using the weight system to determine cost
You almost never see this in restaurants. Sanitation is definitely a risk. The process would likely take too long.
I noticed the lines out the door and bought Chipotle stock in 2009, sold it for a 10% profit. I thought that was a win. It's been a 30-bagger since
True but who would have thought fed will become stock markets whore. I didn’t. As long as fed is stock markets bitch you can buy anything and will make money
I worked at a big chain restaurant in canada. Had to weigh everything to within points of gram.
Its important to these companies
Michael’s confession about chipotle had me rollin 😂 lol 30:24
I want to know if your horse put on his blinker first.
Regarding mega brands - Its been a 2year rolling recession, now its the expensive consumer brands turn
Great as always to get y'all's insights and info. Thanks for the hard work.
This may be the best time ever for a retail investor; buy a low cost index fund and rake it in. No need to spend hours researching the best ETFs and paying higher fees.
or just buy the Mag7, no fees ;-)
@@JoeS97756 Mag7? A rake won't keep up. You will need a leaf blower Joe. Happy 4th!
Ben has to be one of the most insulated from costs that I have ever seen.
Dude--Bacon we buy was about $8.97 now it is hovering around $20 at Sams.
Eggs--they got so stupid expensive we had to find a friend that raised chickens and buy them from her (supplies were all jacked up as well during Covid). And that’s just two things!
And the stuff that has gotten SMALLER, THINNER and has less of the fragrance in it (Body Wash that now just has “NOTES of ----“ instead of the actual fragrance.
……The same freaking thing happened during Obama years in DC. Ggggggrrrrr.
Thinner
Smaller
More expensive.
But Life is good for the Wall Street types I guess.
Party in the Hamptons!! 👍🏼🎉💰
Inflation.... look at the cost of house insurance.
🥇🇺🇸 Happy July 4th The Compound
🎆
The best part about Semi-Charmed Life is when you realize boomers are singing along to a meth anthem at weddings.
The hair bit was hilarious!
Ben's proprietary Y Chart is an index of target date funds.
Fenomenal show! Fan from Portugal! If you guys go to vietnam, one car horn is for signaling i'm going to overtake you, two horns is i"m overtaking, three or more is why the hell didn't you allow me to overtake? Its some scary thing especially in narrow roads 😂
Great show. You both need to discover the benefits of naps. I take a 20-30 minute power nap in the middle of the day (semi retired) and it makes a world of difference. It will change your life.
Stock market is consolidating. Just like how Uber wealthy accumulated more wealth the last few years, the same thing is happening in the stock market. With little regulation and low taxes, mega tech will continue to grow bigger and more powerful. It is inevitable.
It would be interesting to see the percentage of retail vs. institutional investor in the market over the last 100 years. My guess is that retail makes up more of the pie now?
41:57 that's so rude that I'd take the coat down myself and sit and fart on it for a good while.
Chipotle chicken bowl with Guac and large soda, $18.42 in SoCal
No thanks! 💸
Fall is around the corner!!?? It's been "summer" for 12 days lol
Summer is over after the 4th
With his comment about the Quad Cities, Michael proves the point that New Yorkers still think there are Native Americans in the woods beyond Perth Amboy. 😄
The next NVDA is Bats dashboard
Interesting as always. A point about active v index. That has worked great for the USA, but not here in the UK. A disaster for 11 or 12 years post GFC. Richard Branson of Virgin money was all for trackers around the millennium.......nowhere to be seen now! Good active managers have proved their worth.
“Luxuries have become necessities” this topic requires deep dive 19:41
I wore my Hawaiian shirt to the store. The lady there commented on it. I asked if she had a lei for me and she slapped me!
It has not been that hard to beat the market. The main problem with the S&P 500 is that it includes too many companies when big tech is the money printer. It wasn’t that hard to go heavy apple, google and Microsoft. They were and are clearly better than most of what you get buying the top 500
And a ton of those people going on vacations are doing it on credit. Trillion dollars in credit card debt.
Exactly. Most people's emergency fund is their credit card as well
The real wage chart is interesting from a historical perspective, but doesn't tell the current picture (ending in 2020). Wages have not kept pace with inflation in the last 3 years.
Chipotle had a 5 year Revenue CAGR of 15.4%. They are projected to grow 14.1% in this year.
This podcast made me hungry for McDonald’s and Chipotle.
My mom took me to that movie Beloved and it’s definitely not for kids 🤣 We’re about the same age
The ineos grenadier is sold in the US! You should get it just for the horn 😂
I went McDonald’s I got a large fries. Cost $5! You kidding me.
I used to work at Chipotle when I was in college around 2015 I remember the portion sizes were 4 oz for everything and 2 oz for salsa and cheese. But we used to add extra no matter what and I feel like people got so used to getting extra food on their plates that I feel like Chipotle is actually enforcing the 2 oz and 4 oz rule people think that they are getting a lot less. Also I stopped going to Chipotle Moe's and Willie's is just way better. Not sure those to exist where y'all live.
Well you guys giving extra made me go there. No need for me to go there as much especially with shitty quality
THATS WHAT SHE SAID was the highlight of this episode lmao
Could we get an Animal Spirits shirt with the show intro graphic? I’d buy several
Recession isnt always a binary thing like a bomb that either goes off or it doesn't. - some goofball economist committee decides retrospectively whether or not "it happened."
A couple mild negative growth quarters might smooth things out in regards to wage spikes, worker shortages, highest ever home prices and climbing, supply chain shortages and misallocations, etc.
I generally agree with Ben on most things, but it seems like contradictory logic to believe that the US markets have structural tailwinds behind them from American workers systemically contributing to 401ks which causes higher valuations, but don't believe that gigantic flows into cap weighted index funds are having huge impacts on our current market regimes. A huge percentage, if not most, of those systemic automatic contributions are going into cap weighted index funds. If those inflows are enough to effect the broader valuations of the entire US market, they're certainly powerful enough to contribute to large cap dominance through cap weighting we've seen for the last 15 years.
Chipotle in CA for a Burrito Bowl with Tax $15.
Where’s the link to the fintech demo?
futureproofhq.com/future-proof-festival-fintech-demo-drop-iii-now-accepting-applications/
Disagree with Ben's take at 23:30 implying that women entered the workforce because higher wages enticed them to join the labor force. Be clear, most people - men and women - don't want to work. Most people prefer leisure. Michael is more sound in his thinking in that to some extent that's true, but it's more likely because it is basically impossible to live off one income as a family.
Hey Batnick, Edinburgh is pronounced "edin-burra." Accent on the first syllable.
Nobody cares
The Scots care.
but do they have Taroh cards there ;-)
How do you like valuations of top S&P500 companies?
I feel shitty, you guys have great lives. I was waiting for the paycheck to paycheck part and realized it was a joke and you're on holiday again.
The 6% is likely a result of a competitive hiring package
Someone said Chipotle is more expensive than NVDA....
Michael needs to listen to more Rainbow/ Ronnie James Dio if he's never hear "tarot"
27:30 #Oldmansyndrome
1:51 seven minute apps
No way 82%
Love The Compound. However did I hear you guys say Chicken McNuggets were good. Oh man, you need to put a big disclaimer on food recommendations!
What do you mean my recession thing hahaha
on the front of indexing it amazes me that in 2024 all of the knowledge and tech at our hands and advisors still have a job. CFAS CFPS and the like are just extremely good at talking out of their ass and justifying selling active management and smas to people bamboozling them thinking they are superior i dont know how any of them sleep at night. crazy world
Basic passive investing isn't taught in school. Lots of people out there are completely illiterate on financial planning and need help. Or know just enough to know that they would rather pay someone to do it for them so they can do literally anything else with their time. 🤷
@@doubleclick21 yeah its just such a shame takes prob 10 minutes a month 🤣🤙🏻
McDonalds in Canada is terrible...must be much better in USA
It's not... 😬
It's nonsensical to compare Millennial incomes relative to Boomers adjusted for inflation. If the question is, are Millennials wealthier than Boomers, we should compare apples with apples. Property price to median income in 1970-80s vs today, rent to median income 1970-80s vs today, other necessities that aren't consistently tracked by CPI (food, education, gas) relative to median income from today.
I think you'll find (especially with property) Millennials are far worse off. Therefore is it really surprising that they're splurging their impotent discretionary income on travel and iphones?
Again, nobody wants to acknowledge that it's not the amount of Disney's productions but the content. Political BS people apparently are tired of. Best example: the Acolyte
How was Acolyte an example of this?
@@carmellejean-paul4334you obviously haven't seen it or Any Reviews on it 🤣
@@jluther1755 no that’s why I am asking. I was thinking of watching.
Animal spirit roaring sounds @ the beginning of your UA-cam video channel for “educational ” investment sounds like a crazy bear about to devour me for dinner service in my safe bedroom just before midnight. So I ask please unless urgent or market crisis -change animal sound based on market so don't liquidate my 401k retirement account the next day. Bear wolf, or bull sound all terrible for me. The blind investor using voice commands to voice my concern. Sorry unable to see smash the like sign. Gracias
Burger king coffee is good😉
Flying j has great french toast egg bacon breakfast sandwich!!!🎉
Ta-roh is the American English pronunciation. We don’t say that in the rest of the world.
Party On Friends! 🥳✌️🥳🥳🫶🥳
I am in my early 60s and retired at 53. Lots of people gave me pushback because they had difficulty grasping the concept of not working if you don’t have to. I looked at my life as stages. I earned everything I have now through a lot of hard work, but I owe it to myself to “stop and smell the roses” in my final stage of life. In my case I left the country after I retired and live in Latin America. It allowed me to get away from all the negative things happening in America while appreciating my new environment. I have yet to meet anyone who regrets retirement.