📉Eurovision - Top 50 Biggest Drops in Televote Results from Semi Final to Final (2008 - 2023)
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- Опубліковано 25 кві 2024
- Hi everyone! I've always wanted to release a video with statistics like this, was slowly collecting data but couldn't really find a right time to finally finish making it and upload. I guess, it's that time, now, when the Eurovision 2024 rehearsals are about to start. It's top 50 of the biggest differences in televoting between semi final and final results of the same entry. Some people were making this kind of video considering the overall semi final and final places and trying to somehow calculate the difference, but that kind of statistics is far from perfect. I went further. First of all, I considered only televoting results here. As we can see, juries don't really change their opinions from semi final to final in like 95% cases while televoters do it often enough due to many factors: uneven distribution of songs between two semi finals, running orders, different audiences watching semi finals and the final, and so on. Also, I decided to consider points instead of places, more specifically, the percentages of them from the maximum possible points (basically, the number of countries able to vote multiplied by 12). I did this ranking by the difference in these percentages between the semi final and final results of the same countries. This seems as the most fair statistics for this kind of top. To make it absolutely clear, I consider ONLY televoting, without any hidden jury points from countries that didn't use televote (like in 2014, 2015). As you can understand, around 95% of countries' percentage in the semi final is higher than in the final, that's how Eurovision works, but we consider only top 50. Enjoy!
There's one unclear moment I want to clarify: when I say televoting in this video, I really mean it. Because not all the televoting results between 2008 and 2023 are really 100% televoting. The examples are as follows:
- In 2023, when the televote only system in the semi finals was re-introduced, San Marino used jury voting instead of artificially collected "televoting". So, I deduct all the points from San Marino in the 2nd semi final to get televote only ranking. So, Slovenia becomes 4th and Lithuania 5th, as their official difference in points is 7 points but Sammarinese juries gave 12 points to Lithuania and 0 to Slovenia. Hence, the maximum possible televote score becomes 12 points less too.
- The same is for 2009 that had televote only semis and 50/50 final and for 2008 that had both semis and final televote only. Some single countries used only jury voting, so I didn't considered their points too.
- Before 2016, the voting system required countries to combine their 50/50 jury and televotes to get one set of Eurovision points. But there were countries that used only jury voting or only televoting by various reasons. So, I didn't consider points from countries that used only jury voting. Also, I had to make new split jury/televote rankings, as the official ones from Wikipedia/EBU include all the jury points in the televote rankings from the countries that used only them (and the other way around, they also include televote points in the jury rankings from the countries that didn't have juries). So, don't say me I'm wrong because in Wikipedia the split televote rankings are different, no, it's just I deducted all the hidden jury points from them.
The detailed results for 2010 - 2013 are not released (with 2013 we don't even have points in the split jury/televote results, only average places). So, I don't know which countries used only juries or only televote and have no choice but to consider the official jury/televote rankings and to treat it like all the countries had televote, even San Marino (while the surely didn't every year until 2016 when the artificially collected televote for them was introduced).
From 2016, with the new voting system, every country had to have some kind of televote, so I couldn't deduct anything there too.
Australia got hurt by the two horse race between Finland and Sweden. A lot of people said they wanted to give Australia votes but threw them all at Finland due to wanting to overcome the Jury scores.
Yeah, including this
Lol.... who said it??? Making up random rumors now??
How do you have access to 'a lot of people' and what they did regarding trying to compensate for a huge jury vote for Sweden?
@@Rash23215 I follow a lot of Eurovision pages and UA-camrs from around the world. There were heaps of people in the comments saying they would have given Australia votes but they knew the juries would favour Sweden and wanted Finland to win. I'm sure if you look you can find them yourself.
@@Rash23215 I follow a lot of Eurovision pages and UA-camrs from all around the world and there were a lot of comments saying so. I'm sure you could find them if you look. Even in this comment section someone else has mentioned it. Everyone knew it would be between Sweden and Finland last year and that Sweden would get a lot of jury points.
We are Domi, Teya & Salena and Destiny were hurt by the running order. We can see a lot of songs from Semi-Final 2 of 2023, where songs from Australia, Belgium, Estonia, Lithuania and Austria were saved by the juries in the Grand Final. The highest-ranked song was Solo by Blanka. And we all knew how the fans reacted when she was selected to represent Poland. All the televote favorites came from the first Semi-final in 2023. Allocation draw is also very important. This year (2024) I could see Finland or Switzerland doing great at their Semi's and at the grand final doing not so well... We will see... Interesting video once again.
Yeah, there's a limited number of objective reasons why those differences happening. The most obvious ones are qualifying from the weaker semi final (people who voted for you there will just change their mind in the final and vote for the qualifiers from the another semi, 2nd one of 2023 is the best example of this) and having amazing running order in the semi (mostly being the show closer with an upbeat song) and bad or just okay-ish one in the final. The extreme cases happen when those 2 factors are coming together, just like with Teya & Salena, Voyager and many others from the 2nd semi of 2023.
I think Czech Republic in 2022 and Austria last year are why they are allowing voting throughout the night and not just after all the performances.
@escserg6731 I really think running order plays the biggest factor. Austria qualified with the 2nd most in their semi-final and then everybody in their semi final out scored them with the televote after they were the opening act
@@otowndude08 Running order plays a major role, but let's be honest semi 2 in 2023 was pretty easy. If Austria/Australia would have been competing in semi 1 for sure they wouldn't have finished that high. I personally believe that running order does play a major role, but mostly with the juries.
@yuijo2772 Austria tied for last among all the semi finalist in the televote. I don't think they would have been top 10 or anything but I doubt that they would have placed last among all the semi finalist that advanced if they weren't the opening act.
It's interesting how a lot of these performed very late in their semis and then were hurt by the running order in the final
A lot of semi closers made it very high on this list
Yeah. I would even say, those semi closers were more favored by the running order in the semi final than hurt by it in the final. Especially, if the semi that they closed was objectively weaker than the other one (just like 2nd semi of 2023). If you have at least average (or much better an above average) upbeat song and closing a weaker semi, that's a perfect combo to get a much higher results than expected.
@@escserg6731lux on their way to be 5th in semi ang 22 in final
Australia was low because lot of their fans voted for Finland.
Also the votes most came from Finland 8 p.
I voted Australia still. Didn't really like the Finnish one.
Promise was easily the best song in the competition.
@@tomhammond3495 100% Australia deserved more love
what this video clearly shows is that running order matters so much
Only if you're somewhere in between, not a guaranteed NQ and not a contender for a win. Then yes, if you have a good running order in the semi and bad/okay one in the final, your result will be lower in comparison to the semi
Yeah, imo it's the biggest problem of esc
Still so sad about Lights Off being an underrated masterpiece
We are domi, Teya & Salena and Vesna😭
Yeah. From a very late running order in the semis to an early running order in much more competitive finals
And there are still people who really think that "as long as you have a good song, running order doesn't matter" 💀💀. They should watch this video.
If your song is a REAL top 5 - top 10 contender, then yeah, running order doesn't matter for you. If you're a dead on arrival non-qualifier then no running order will save you as well. And only if you're somewhere in between, a borderline qualifier or a contender for like 13th place, then the running order becomes really important.
@@escserg6731 Coming in the top 3 in the semi is an indicative for me that you are a real top 5-10 contender. And in this video we've seen several instances of entries which came in the top 3 in the semi and they flopped in the grand final because they performed within the first 5 spots (some opened the show). Running order is not that big of a deal when it comes to the juries, but when it comes to the televoting, it is. Ever since televoting was introduced, only two songs managed to win from a position before 10th ("Diva" and "Everyway that I can") and they were close to not winning. Even if we only take the period from 1998 to 2012 (when running order was determined randomly), that says enough... And since 2013, anytime a potential winner draws 1st half, producers place them towards the end, cause they know that, otherwise, they may screw their chances
@@xander2609 Yeah, running order matters for televoters and absolutely doesn't for juries, that's why I made this video considering only televoting. About top 3 in the semi final - don't forget that a semi final could just be really weak comparing to the other one and the big 5. So, too many people will just change their votes to someone else when it comes to the grand final. 2nd semi of 2023 was the best example of an obviously weaker semi (not just because eurofans thought so, we could really see it based on the results). Yeah, Austria came 2nd here and then flopped performing 1st in the final but Australia, after winning the semi, drew 2nd half of the final, performed 15th and still underscored with the televoting. So, it's not only about first 5 spots in the final.
@@escserg6731 Yeah, I know, running order can't be blamed in all the entries that are shown in this video (many were affected by other factors). But there's a fair amount of them that I'm sure flopped in the grand final solely because of a bad running order compared to the one they had in the semi-final, like Finland 2011, Belgium 2016, Israel 2017, Czechia 2021 and Austria 2023. They had a splendid result in the semi-final but all of them performed 1st in the grand final and flopped. Other entries that are shown in this video which were also presumably affected by performing early in the grand final [not to the extent of the 5 previous examples, though] are Iceland 2009, Belgium 2010, Czechia 2019 and Malta 2021
@@xander2609 Yeah, I understand. But the early running order in the final is only one factor among enough others. And it's not just a worse RO in the final, it's also a too good RO in the semi that makes such big differences in results sometimes.
I noticed you often mention that the televote is unpredictable. Looking at the Top 10 of this video I have to agree. Many of these seem like "televote friendly" songs and fan favourites. I guess they got the expected result in the semis and worse than expected in the final
Yeah. It's just how jury and televote systems work. Juries are making rankings, televoters just vote from 1 to 20 times for whatever they want, and only the the rankings by those votes are made. So, juries are able to vote for every single jury-friendly song almost evenly while televoters might focus on one entry and forget about another similar one, for example.
Still makes me so upset that both teya and selina, destiny and Hera got robbed so badly in the finals
I loved Teya and Selina, but let's be real, they sounded *bad* in both the semi and the finals...
@@melindamuller4466 They did not, they sound pretty okay.
Very nice video ❤ keep up the great work
Wow great video, must've taken a lot of time to collect all this data. Interested to see what would happen if you'd take the relative difference instead of the absolute percentages...
Yeah, especially with deducting the hidden jury points among the televotes in 2008, 2009, 2014, 2015 & 2023. But considering how slowly I collected it, it was fine.😅
What do you mean by relative difference here though?
@@escserg6731 Yeah no great job, commitment like this deserves more views.
I meant like, calculate what the percentage compared to the semi percentage was instead of substracting it. So saying from 60% to the semis to 10% is 6x times as less instead of just 50% less
EDIT: wait i do now realize that countries who got 1 point in the final will now probably and up on top
@@nsomandin5342 Yeah, absolute difference of percentages looks more fair and interesting
Years passed but I still have that "crazy feeling" about Iceland 2010.
Hera is returning this year!
@@Benquick92 of course I know 😍
Seeing 3 out of my top 5 Hungarian contestants on this list hurt my soul, they deserved better
They still did really well. Hungary 2017 has that big difference just because the televote score in the semi was too big, in the final it was still very high and he finished 8th despite the low jury result. Hungary 2014 in contrast, was helped by juries to finish like 5th-6th.
Origo is still one of my favourite eurovision entries of all time and it makes me so sad to see it's been mostly forgotten
Golden Boy from Israel is such an iconic song
I suppose this year's results (and the audience splitting votes between Israel Ukraine and Croatia, and by extension Switzerland) are going to be interesting to analyze
Yeah. But I don't really see any big differences this year, maybe only Luxembourg and some others
Hera my queen 😞
i will forever say that watergun from 2023 should've been in atleast the top 5. I love that song so fucking much :(((
I can see how much work was put into this video! Thank you
Thanks!
Hera Björk and Destiny❤
Important thing to note is that we might be seeing this more often with tele-only qualifiers. Songs that are too jury-friendly get eliminated in the semis since televote decides every song that makes it to the final. That means instead of having a few jury-bait songs receive low televote scores in the final, the televote is suddenly spread thin across 20 songs that all did well enough with the televote to qualify. Jury votes, however, will funnel towards the few jury-friendly songs that were strong enough to make it to the final.
Well, jury-baits that would go to the final if juries voted in the semis usually don't score a lot of televotes in the semi either. So, their difference between the televote scores in the semi and in the final wouldn't be big at all.
@@escserg6731 Yeah that's what I said. I meant that the jury votes become very unbalanced. Look at Esc 22 - Azerbaijan and Switzerland wouldn't have qualified under the current system but in the 2022 final they received 181 jury points. With the new system, those 181 points would just be given to the jury-friendlier songs that made it through the semis instead of the weaker countries that borderline qualified through televoting (e.g. Cyprus or Albania in 2022)
Hysterical to see place 26 and 25 after each other, that was basically the same chorus
Well, don't know about the melody but the instrumental and volume are different enough
The “can’t turn and run, no water guns”-line and the “ooh”-part in the next song sounded very similar - as well as the tempo and instrumentation.
Know I exaggerated a bit, but nonetheless … 😅
Cool
It seems like Hungary and Israel had to suffer quite often. Imri even had to suffer twice. Once himself and once as a dancer / supporting vocalist.
I see several songs from 2010 & 2011 in this video, which makes me think that maybe the open voting lines during the grand final this year will unfortunately not minimize the running order bias.
I guess the best solution would be to reduce the number of countries in the grand final. Anyway, are you going to do the opposite as well?
You mean, the top of who has better percentage of points in the final than in the semi? There're not too much of them and it's mostly just by 1-2 percent. You either just almost keep your percentage the same (Winners usually do, for ex) or it drops to some extent (these top 50 are the most extreme cases).
The problem with this is not only the running order but the fact that people can change their mind in the final. And finals are watched by a much bigger and diverse audience than semis. And televoting is usually very one-side and each country can reward only their top 10 out of 26.
I had quite a large bet on Australia to win their SF in 2023, so it was a very large swing of emotions going from certain I'd got the bet wrong after seeing their GF televote score to confused relief a couple hours later after seeing they'd somehow still won the SF
Yeah, it was a good bet to place. They performed last in a much weaker semi with no big televote favorites, had a great staging (better than Austria's one) and a catchy upbeat song. So, there was a good probability of them winning their semi
@@escserg6731 Yeah my exact thinking! Seemed like a no-brainer to me, but the odds were strongly with Austria in 1st place for some reason
@@escShervin It was because Austria had MUCH more hype from eurofans before the show, but their staging turned out to be underwhelming
@@escShervin It's because Austria had MUCH more hype from eurofans before the show but their actual staging turned out to be underwhelming
Je Nais Sais Quoi should have won.
Will you do it with:
- Jury voting
- Final result
- Growes instead of droppers
Final result - don't forget that semis had different voting systems over the years, so this kind of statistics would be misleading.
Jury voting - I could do that but it would be fixed range of years from 2010 to 2022, that's the years where juries voted in the semis. But as we know, juries are affected by this much less than the televoters, that's why I made this video with the televoting in the first place. I can do that but it will be less interesting and not too relevant because again, there're no jury points in the semis anymore.
Growers - it's actually really hard to increase your result in percentage. Most growers will have like 1-2% of growing, not more. Again, it would be fun but not too interesting.
So, we'll see.
You can clearly see how two horse race years like 2023 hurt the scores of everyone else. When two or three songs take all the vote share, there isn't much to go around for everyone else.
Yeah, people changing their votes in the final comparing to the semis
i geniunely think teya and selena was hurt by staging. most people only watch the final. i used to be one of those. their year i checked out as long as the mvs came out and i loved their song after understanding the concept a few listens later. but the song is weird amd without a concept staging nobody understood it at first listen.
Yeah, the staging was a fail for this kind of song
Monika Linkyte got robbed
Joker Out got robbed even harder
How about Czechia 2016 and Austria 2017?
They weren't in the televote top 10 in the semis, so their differences between the final and the semis televote results are not big.
There is some issue in calculations. It is needed to use weighted estimation for percentages because there are teams from another semifinal and unqualified participants (from Big Five and host countries) in final stage. So (for example) there is no difference in voting for Greece 2010 and Turkey 2009 teams.
And yes, I read disclaimer but percentage diff is meaningless in current form
And the second semifinal in 2023 was really weak. All top-5 teams (Australia, Poland, Lithuania, Slovenia and Austria) are in this video. And 10th place team (from Estonia) have got almost all points in final from neighbours (It's main problem of the competition, there are even scientific articles about it using graph theory)
It makes enough sense not to make these calculations more complicated, it represents those differences well
@@escserg6731 Absolutely not. In a normal situation, a reduction from 80% to 35-40% is considered typical and not an anomaly. However, a decrease from 50% to 10% would be regarded as a statistical anomaly.
@@escserg6731 But don't think that these are some kind of claims, I just want to put a more rigorous scientific foundation under this matter. You've done a fabulous job, and I want to bring it to a logical conclusion.
Listen, I have an idea! I can write to Chess-Ray, he specializes in detecting anomalies in the strength of chess players (there's a serious cheating scandal in chess right now) and he is a professional statistician. I could send him your data or you could cooperate directly. I think it will gain both of you subscribers and views. And it would be a shame if your efforts were wasted.
@@user-md8np5wo6s I'm not saying any of these are anomaly. Yes, this reducing is completely normal. But if we just take only top 50 of those reductions, these statistics make perfect sense
The top 4 all icons
Is it only me or is the audio on number 30 very bad?
Edit: all of 2014 has this bad audio, is it the video or something else
Yeah, it's the way they were uploaded on the official channel, with this kind of bad audio.
Czechia 2022 these Drops its been because they starting like a First :(
Blanka))
Portugal 2008 and turkey 2009 having the same percentage is hurting my brain, i hate math ☹️
moldova and island wont qualify
croatia, serbia, slovenia, lithuania, cyprus are best in semi final 1.
cause u cant pay to 40 countries, Malta
Well, they didn't pay to anyone, they were only buying ads and influencing the bookmaker odds. Their low televote result in the final happened because people had different favorites to vote in the final comparing to the semi final (where Malta also performed last which is a great advantage)
Czechia always get a rough deal - Vesna & We Are Domi were my favourites in their respective years
mostly stupid list, only the top10 is interesting.
It's statistics, it can't be stupid. What do you mean?
14:27 the concept of FLOP 😂😂😂😂 likely TVM bought votes instead and then had wasted all the money 😂
Nope, they wasted the money buying ads all over the Internet and influencing the bookmaker odds to keep themselves in the 1st place before the rehearsals and even after, despite the people's negative reactions. They got so many televotes in the semi because they performed last with a strong enough song. But then they got 6th running order in the final, people were changing their votes to France, Italy from Big 5, also to Switzerland, Iceland from the 2nd semi... so they ended up really low