So glad you’ve started your personal channel. Your insights, analysis and delivery are amazing, while the format perfectly compliments the watchfinder videos. Thanks for the cool content and keep it up Andrew!!
I think that you're spot on Andrew. The wine industry has been doing the same thing for many years. Introducing new labels at the low end to replace the last one that they've now moved more upmarket once the name is established. The only thing I don't agree with is the customisation aspect. That's a huge leap for any watch maker, never mind Rolex. Rolex definitely want to go more upmarket but considering their waiting lists, they don't really have to do anything. Just increase their prices and their waiting lists will probably get longer as more people think that they're now even more desirable.
Only real difference of opinion I have about the Pelly 39 is that it really is an attempt at a direct replacement for the affordable submariner of a time gone past. Tudor likely wont use the Submariner name again as it would bring down the brand association as One of Rolex’s most classic and well known properties. But the case styling and the way the dial and bezel ate done (to look like a premium update over the original larger Pelagos) is a way of putting forward a model for anyone who likes the styling of a submariner,but who doesn’t want to spend grey market prices or wait for months (or years) to get a sub, and who wants a watch that can take a thrashing. Also, pushing up the smaller Pelagos as a premium dressy-but-still-tool-watch-tough dive watch from Tudor keeps Tudor as a brand front the old “poor man’s Rolex” sentiment. Instead, it’s now the cooler little brother from Rolex that makes tough watches for all working persons.
I think this is a great explanation for what’s currently happening in that market. And I must say, your remarkable explanations without the background music of the Watchfinder channel is a breath of fresh air. Great job man!
Just when I thought Rolex was an oversimplified 'lazy' brand that is simply living-off the success of their past heritage, Andrew blows my mind with this! If this is true (and based on the patterns discussed, it most likely is...) Rolex as a brand... is undeniably genius! Instead of caving into pressure of the industry and following trends, they are literally working non-stop to set industry standards. No wonder nobody can touch them in competition (in terms of brand power).
It just makes sense, Rolex using Tudor as a safety net in the design department...if it works for Tudor customers, then incorporate it in the main brand Rolex, intelligent marketing strategies Very well presented Andrew 🙏
I had the same thought when Tudor BB Ceramic was METAS certified. It's as if they were saying, "it's no superlative, so this METAS stuff that omega is doing is Tudor-stuff". Brilliant way to say "we can do that too" without having to directly compete and create the image that Rolex and Omega are on the same level. It's troll-level marketing spin.
From the Swatch Group, now Longines has their "Ultra Chronometer" certification, so they're pretty much reinforcing their place as a legitimate Tudor competitor, thus keeping Omega's Master Chronometer rating competitive with Rolex. Talk about trolling! Longines is so sneaky!
@@theaussiewhinger I don't understand.... My point was that Tudor had a watch METAS certified to compete with Omega. Does Tudor also have an "ultra chronometer" certified watch for which Longenes is attempting to compete?
I think you're absolutely right and the way you explained it, it makes total sense. Watch customization will be the next move, and it's great, the feeling of being in the process and making a unique watch will have huge impact on their market, and to be honest there's nothing left there for these watch companies to do design-wise to make their products appealing to the new generation. This has to be it. The first time I visited Bamford website, about a few months ago, I kinda felt that this has to be the future of the watch market and I loved it and spend some time designing a Zenith to my likings just to see how it felt and it was so satisfying that I couldn't believe with this feature available, the majority are still buying the watch the company designed for them, the same old and tried design formula without any unique characteristics because they should appeal to a broader audience, soulless to be exact. Gone are the days that every watch should be black or blue because the majority of the market likes it that way, let's go to the next episode. Great video Andrew, you're the best at what you do. ✌🏼
Interesting theory on where this is going Andrew. The glacial pace of Rolex design evolution left me thinking as a designer I know which of the two brands I would rather be on. The 'custom Rolex' future could be interesting but it would need them to rethink their distribution and probably phase out the independent AD's overtime. You could argue this has already started with number of smaller dealers being deleted.
Your 20 year observation makes sense, especially about Tudor undercutting Omega prices but will eventually move into the 5K USD range. However, what are the total sales numbers of Omega vs Tudor. (Pete McConvill pointed out that Tudor sales is a small fraction of Rolex sales.) Can Tudor make that big of a dent into Omega sales? As for Black Bay vs Pelagos, the rose on the BB crown tells me that this line is looking at Tudor history, whereas the shield on the Pelagos crown points to the future. The Pelagos 39 strikes me as a modern take on the 14060 Sub, and to me, a better made one for less than half the price. With its sunburst dial and bezel, I fully expect to see this watch released with colorful dials, maybe a few days before Watches and Wonders 2023, and perhaps with the recently discontinued colors from the Rolex OP line. Watching Pelagos purists flip out over a Tiffany blue Pelagos 39 will be quite entertaining!
Totally agree. I want(ed) a 14060 2-line Sub, but considering they now reach 10k and after wearing my buddies Pelagos 39 a couple of times, I’m inclined to get the P39 instead, because it just seems truer to it’s intended purpose without the Rolex stigma or wanting to ruin a 10k watch. I still own a few Rolexes and do like them, but many of the new ones are too bulky for my liking and the old ones have become unreasonably expensive, when you consider that I can get the far superior new Sub for the same price as the 14060, even if aesthetically I prefer the latter.
Andrew: GREAT VIDEO! I am glad you followed up on this theory, which was a short coda at the end of a WF video. You are exactly right in this analysis. It is really "brand evolution" at its most basic. (a) In a few WF videos, you compare Rolex to Porsche and Levi Strauss. The former has been doing custom orders for years. The latter started doing custom denim back in the 2000's. The idea of customization appeals to many demographics. It's technologically possible now, and the price points are much higher. (b) Anecdotally, my AD spent millions of dollars updating their store to match Rolex's requirements. It's beautiful, but it's basically a museum. They recently had a meeting with Tudor, and were very excited about Tudor's growth plans. They expanded the Tudor displays substantially, and it feels like an indication of where things are going (consistent with your theory). (c) You touched upon Omega briefly, but you should elaborate on them a bit as well. In reference to the NTTD Seamaster (an amazing watch), you suggested that the very substantial price increase was a sign of it competing with the Submariner. Do you think Swatch will push Omega into Rolex territory, and find some other brand to be their Tudor?
Oh Andrew. It’s great that youve set up shop outside the watchfinder umbrella. And what an interesting video! And not just anecdotal but backed up with pretty good evidence. The customisation thing sounds so plausible. Just be careful they’re gonna send assassins round to silence you
This is exactly what I’ve been preaching for over a year now. However unlike me, you broke it down and backed up your speculation with actual examples 👏 Tudor is definitely the new Rolex! #tudorbros
Best video to date. I just tried buying a Tudor Pelagos in a AD in Luca Italy. They had one to show me but it was already sold. I did enjoy the food and wine. I never give up on something I want. Thanks Andrew and Tudor, hope to see you both soon.
Interesting vid. The first thing I thought when I saw the 39 was that it was a deliberate release to fill the submariner gap in the 3k price bracket. The 2 examples you bring up are valid examples, however I'm not sure they suggest Rolex's plan will work. With the Seiko example, I'm seeing an awful lot of kick-back at the ever increasing prices- sure, Orient and microbrands are probably doing good business as Seiko move out of the "budget" price bracket, but I'm not convinced the market is particularly interested in paying 2k for a seiko thats barely different to a watch that cost half as much 2 years ago and has barely any upgrades to justify it. Simply put, not all brands have the clout and name-value to justify increasing prices to make themselves more "exclusive". It'll be interesting to see what Tudor do next, if they do continue down the path you're suggesting I think it will be a shame, they'll lose that charm they currently have.
Right on!! I'm late to the party but congratulations on the new channel! Shouldn't it be called, Talking Face? LOL anywhoo, you nailed the analysis. Tudor retail prices are where Rolex's 20 or 30 years ago. As a brand strategy, this makes perfect sense and frees up Rolex for loftier price points.
Superb, I think you’re spot on! Now, here in July, you’re seeing the Pelagos range enlarge again with their carbon watches. Bark and Jack has recently visited the factory and shown the sheer automation of Tudor. Lust is there, too, because I just have to have a Pelagos 39!
Tudor 1926: A dizzying array of case sizes, colors and material combinations. End result? People are unaware of the full scope and feel they have TOO MANY decisions to make. Final vote? Most people don't even know it exists. Customization is a difficult thing in this industry; everyone so opinionated on all the nuances. I don't think it will work as a business model, but we see them trying out this concept on BOTH Tudor and Rolex websites. Makes people feel special, if nothing else.
100% agree with you on this. It's a very smart premiumisation strategy that is clearly working. Do you think we'll see an update to the GMT next year?? I'm banking on it. And if we do, might spoil my plans to break into Rolex and I'll need to expand my Tudor collection instead.
Your theory makes perfect sense to me except the Rolex full customization plan. That may be an option, but not necessarily their main business model. That would slow down their production, hence their sales drastically. Excellent analysis! Looking forward to your next!
Your most interesting episode yet. Love the overall perspective. My main question is whether Tudor will up their production numbers so that one can buy one as easily as an Omega?
This channel is awesome. Andrew, your videos and presentation is super entertaining and full of knowledge. Keep up the great work. You and Jeremy Clarkson rock lol👍🏽
Good one 👍🏼😂 I also told him before that his channel is like the Top Gear of the watch world. Oh man, I really loved Top Gear, it was epic. I even liked his Clarkson's Farm series on Amazon, it's hilarious, he's a genius.
Your theory and illustration of similar product marketing strategies from Seiko in the watch world and VAG in automotive is very compelling and plausible. Great video! p.s. I love my Pelagos 39
Love your views and the information and history you provide! I agree with the opinion that Rolex’s main strong point is marketing. An Omega is technically speaking a higher performing brand, a more accurate watch. But since the beginning Rolex have excelled at marketing themselves and staying on top of the mind of the masses. The Tudor watches I personally prefer style wise and certainly price wise. There are very few Rolex options that are my style and of course they are hard to acquire and overpriced (in my opinion). Thank you for making these vids and sharing your knowledge and the history of these fine mechanical creations in the much less fulfilling digital world.
I've been thinking about this for months. Really after they started to populate the stores with the 'display' models. Then the left hand GMT was an exercise to see if they could do this at scale. It makes total sense. Takes the AD out of the equation. Your watch is in when it is in. Rolex knows exactly how many of each model to produce. They also get to market the 'bespoke' experience like luxury car dealers.
Andrew, your plan for Rolex and Tudor makes sense. I have been advocating for your suggestion at 10:40 for over 2 years on multiple UA-cam channels. I have advocated for customers to place an order with a deposit at their local AD. The order goes to Rolex to order and build the watch. The delivery is to the local AD for final payment and fitting. Flippers are cut out. The 5 year plan will only work if Rolex and Tudor can meet demand enough to buy a watch for new customers at the AD. Else, like now, I am buying Omega, Grand Seiko and other brands that are both AVAILABLE AND AFFORDABLE. I hope Rolex can fix its model to meet he demand: especially, for new customers who want just one sports steel model for everyday use.
Love this video and speculation. It adds very relevant pieces to the puzzle, at least for me personally, as you explain some of the reasons why i think ive been drawn more towards tudor and away from Rolex leading to me selling my rolex’ and buying my first tudor earlier this year. Havent been able to put this into words, until now. Thanks!
Interesting, I had figured out Tudor's role, but the customization future for Rolex is a surprise! I suspect Tudor will go from strength to strength, but I am not so sure about Rolex. Their big sellers were always the sports models, but people are realising no one buys a Sub to dive anymore so the image will change and other brands do precious models with more class.
Excellent analysis and outlook, Andrew! It is a very interesting point that RLX´s business model could evolve in the direction of a highly customizable line up. Latest reports about RLX expanding their production facilities make this all the more plausible.
I'm glad you have started your own channel Andrew. When Watchfinder just had you and your hands, it was brilliant, but they ruined it when they added the other guy and the old silver microphone. I've just subscribed and am looking forward to your next video.👍
The only thing is that Rolex isn't doing this in a vacuum. Omega will be following suit. They'll not sit by for Tudor to become their new competitor, that would lesson the Omega brand. Omega has been inching their prices up by feet these days, just like Rolex. Omega will make sure they end up just below the Rolex price point, wherever they end up. It'll fall to Longines or other Swatch group brands to become the higher priced Tudor competitor. I've seen this coming for a while, so I've been buying up watches no a bit faster than I'd like. If I don't, soon I won't be able to afford one at all. Buying while I can afford to.
Loved your analysis mate .. Rolex is not sitting on its high horse with 28% market share. They are watching closely the ones who occupy 2nd and 3rd spots even if there is a fair bit of gap.. it wants Tudor to creep in and take their share .. Rolex going into that up market price category would then mean Tudor will be what Rolex is today in the future
I think you are right on the money. It makes perfect sense. That is why I'm getting the ines I want NOW. I wear my watches so I will never pay Rolex prices for ANY watch. I liked Tudor back when Rolex was accessible. I have always liked what was NOT COOL .the pelogos 39 will most likely be my last watch of any kind because this is THE watch I have been wanting sense The came back to the US. .
Just stumbled onto your channel. Did not expect the soothing voice hands man is a .... normal person? It's like peering behind the curtain of the Wizard of Oz.
Makes complete sense to me. I think even the Rolex waiting list may have been a test by Rolex to see what people are willing to pay. Excellent presentation by the way!
You must be a mind reader too :)) Absolutely agree with everything you said! Very glad you are out there to open people's eyes and help them understand how manipulative, calculated and clever some brands really are throwing the bate at us.
I think your theory breaks down when you look at Tudor brand recognition. Rolex is probably known by 99% of the general public - it's often the only luxury watch brand people know of. But I'd argue Tudor is probably recognized by less 5% of the general public. That alone will make it almost impossible for it to fill the old position that Rolex used to take. Omega is somewhere in between those two - certainly not anywhere near Rolex in terms of recognition, but probably closer to the 30-40% of the public.
The upmarket and fillig the gap-plan I agree with. But I'm more confused with where you get the idea from that they want to sell customized rolexes? Would you elaborate?
Nice to see the numbers growing 👌 I think you are onto the whole customisation scenario before it lands. A very interesting point, and doubtless it will be Rolex leading the way.
Wow what a great video, your best yet. Agree with everything you’ve said. I really think in 25 years time, Hodinkee talking watches will be full of tudors
I come back to this video often because the idea of Rolex using a customization model is just so cool!! Maybe my dream of an Explorer II in a Yacht Master 37 case can finally come true LOL😂
Thanks for the great video Andrew. I tried on the Pelagos 39 at a Tudor event last night. It was too small and light for my taste, but good looking. Tudor have being doing some great work recently.
Fascinating video, this kind of big picture thinking seems remarkably absent from the rest of the watch industry media space. People far too focused on Pelagos vs Pelagos 39 to see the big picture, which is the most interesting thing. The build to order Rolex model seems like a big leap for them, but I think it would be a huge improvement from the current situation. It might actually make their models desirable for someone like me again. More like placing an order for a GT4 than playing mysterious winking games with some sales person. Fascinating to see how this all plays out. Puts Omega in an interesting position doesn’t it? After the blow dealt to them by Cartier, do they continue to push upmarket after Rolex? Or cover their 6 against the surging Tudor? I think Omega will certainly be helped if Tudor prices continue to creep upwards… but I think Omega need to take some serious broader action and respond to the rapidly shifting trends toward more classically styled and proportioned watches
It will be interesting to see how Omega react. I've also wondered about custom spec watches from major brands. In a world where no two Minis are the same it can't be that difficult to let a buyer order individually spec'd watch there's only so many things that can be done to them. I'd order a matt black dial and bezel Pelegos 39 without the display back today if I could or maybe a black FXD, same goes for the Omega PO39.5.
The hole in your theory is that if Rolex pursues mass customization, they will be killing the thing that drives their value: collectibility. Rolexes cease being collectible if they're all unique. They would be abandoning their tried and true strategy of limited product lines and incremental changes to become essentially Omega on steroids. Instead of thousands of discrete references like Omega, Rolex will have literally millions of permutations to choose from.
Exactly. I agree for the most part except for the customization feature. That would muddy the waters. Leave it to independents or third parties such as Artisans de Geneve.
Andrew described very well the long term policy of the most succesful Swiss watchmaker of the last decade. I wonder only what will be the price increase connected with further customization of Rolex products. I recently had an occasion to see some customized Rolex watches (blackened or skeletonized, in stainless steel or precious metals) by small artisan studios and despite their impressive prices they sell like hot rolls! I wonder also what will be the next move of Swatch group to maintain their status and income in the next decade. This year they met another growing competition from expanding Cartier, which proves that division between so called boutique and mainstream watchmaking is somehow artificial in present times.
Great video, really echos my own thoughts on the role & positioning of Tudor. I’m not sure about the Rolex custom aspect: I see them as far too hi-brow about their design & pedigree to allow Jo public to make their own decisions, but we’ll see: Tudor is definitely intended to be the accessible Rolex for the layperson today, and the quality of them far exceeds the rattly stamped shambles of a 1985 sub or GMT clasp or bracelet, even if the market price disagrees :)
I love Turkey, been there few times, lovely down to earth people, beautiful nature, good resorts, great food, good shopping destination. I know you've been dealing with an economic situation since the pandemic started but I hope you people overcome it and go back to good ol'days. ✌🏼
Makes complete sense. I think the car analogy is a good one. Not even regarding car brands buying other brands to lend credibility, but I also see this as model creep. Almost every car company has made their flagship vehicles bigger and better every year, and then they introduce a new model to backfill their previous model that is now bigger and more expensive, to fill the gap where it used to be. E.g. Ford and the F-150, used to be a normal sized truck, then it got so big they had to introduce an updated Ranger. Now that’s so big they had to introduce the Maverick.
I got my mint 1993 Tudor prince oyster date in 2012 because the original owner had worn it once during a cruise and someone said to him that he should have bought a real Rolex... So it was worn about 5 days. It needed a service because it had gunk in place of lubricants, excluding the service it was practically free since I exchanged it for a pile of antiques I picked up in a house about to be demolished by our company to expand our storage facility...
Rolex are making a lot of sensible moves. I've always felt that the reason for the popularity of Rolex is not just in their good looking and well executed pieces with solid movements, but the failure of the rest of the Swiss watch industry to really give customers what they truly desire. I think it'll take another 10 years for the industry to really get their act together in terms of movements beyond ETA that are quality, and designs that are great. The rest of the industry is dominated by designs and/or features where I say, "If they only just did this, or that, I'd buy one" whereas with Rolex they have it all already. I'm talking about quality steel bracelets, often with micro adjustment, and solid in-house movements with decent power reserves, and shorter more-wearable lugs, heights that aren't too chunky and designs that just don't suck.
I think you're onto something here... I haven't been a fan of Rolex purely because I don't baby my watches and I always found them more old school. I have Omegas and was going to go with another omega or an IWC... and then Tudor launched the FXD... then the BB Pro... then the ranger and now the 39... in less than a year I've gone from not being really interested in Tudor to ordering 3 of their watches and almost forgetting about Omega and IWC completely
To connect two of your points: both the testbed theory and the customization idea, Tudor already offer a configurator on their website and I think you might be able to buy online too? But if that feature takes off Rolex may take it on
Customisation is an interesting area. Cartier offers this, and they do it very well. It’s the exception and not available to everyone (because they only offer it in precious metal for one thing). It’s also a very lengthy process that requires lots of steps. The end result always needs to stay true to the brand DNA. A lot of people are involved, so to scale this up, one would have to go down the Tiffany route from 2016 (meaning personalisation rather than customisation). You have set variations of parts you can select from, still managed in a way that no result can be off-brand. None of the above is being done via an online platform, and you do want someone holding your hand unless you are a designer. The in-person aspect also adds to the premium experience.
very interesting prediction, I hope you're right! Customized Rolex watches would be awesome in a way, like picking dial and bezel colours yourself to make it more unique, I can see the appeal in that.
So glad you’ve started your personal channel. Your insights, analysis and delivery are amazing, while the format perfectly compliments the watchfinder videos. Thanks for the cool content and keep it up Andrew!!
The head movement's take getting used to lol
I think that you're spot on Andrew. The wine industry has been doing the same thing for many years. Introducing new labels at the low end to replace the last one that they've now moved more upmarket once the name is established. The only thing I don't agree with is the customisation aspect. That's a huge leap for any watch maker, never mind Rolex. Rolex definitely want to go more upmarket but considering their waiting lists, they don't really have to do anything. Just increase their prices and their waiting lists will probably get longer as more people think that they're now even more desirable.
After seeing the Pelagos39 and Submariner side by side, I think I like them both equally!
This is incredibly well thought out and I couldn't agree more.
Only real difference of opinion I have about the Pelly 39 is that it really is an attempt at a direct replacement for the affordable submariner of a time gone past. Tudor likely wont use the Submariner name again as it would bring down the brand association as One of Rolex’s most classic and well known properties. But the case styling and the way the dial and bezel ate done (to look like a premium update over the original larger Pelagos) is a way of putting forward a model for anyone who likes the styling of a submariner,but who doesn’t want to spend grey market prices or wait for months (or years) to get a sub, and who wants a watch that can take a thrashing. Also, pushing up the smaller Pelagos as a premium dressy-but-still-tool-watch-tough dive watch from Tudor keeps Tudor as a brand front the old “poor man’s Rolex” sentiment. Instead, it’s now the cooler little brother from Rolex that makes tough watches for all working persons.
I think this is a great explanation for what’s currently happening in that market. And I must say, your remarkable explanations without the background music of the Watchfinder channel is a breath of fresh air. Great job man!
Just when I thought Rolex was an oversimplified 'lazy' brand that is simply living-off the success of their past heritage, Andrew blows my mind with this! If this is true (and based on the patterns discussed, it most likely is...) Rolex as a brand... is undeniably genius! Instead of caving into pressure of the industry and following trends, they are literally working non-stop to set industry standards. No wonder nobody can touch them in competition (in terms of brand power).
One thing Rolex isn’t is “lazy”
@@Neadlemeyer Their marketing department maybe.
This is not new... Others have said exactly the same!
"in terms of brand power".... Uhhh, bruh, have u heard of Mido? Now THAT is brand power.
Oh please, this isn’t anything new either.
I think you are spot on with your analysis. It is a brilliant marketing/sales master plan. Subscribed!
It just makes sense, Rolex using Tudor as a safety net in the design department...if it works for Tudor customers, then incorporate it in the main brand Rolex, intelligent marketing strategies
Very well presented Andrew 🙏
I had the same thought when Tudor BB Ceramic was METAS certified. It's as if they were saying, "it's no superlative, so this METAS stuff that omega is doing is Tudor-stuff". Brilliant way to say "we can do that too" without having to directly compete and create the image that Rolex and Omega are on the same level. It's troll-level marketing spin.
100% , Rolex has just made omega look like they are competing with Tudor , very clever indeed
From the Swatch Group, now Longines has their "Ultra Chronometer" certification, so they're pretty much reinforcing their place as a legitimate Tudor competitor, thus keeping Omega's Master Chronometer rating competitive with Rolex. Talk about trolling! Longines is so sneaky!
@@theaussiewhinger I don't understand.... My point was that Tudor had a watch METAS certified to compete with Omega. Does Tudor also have an "ultra chronometer" certified watch for which Longenes is attempting to compete?
I think you're absolutely right and the way you explained it, it makes total sense. Watch customization will be the next move, and it's great, the feeling of being in the process and making a unique watch will have huge impact on their market, and to be honest there's nothing left there for these watch companies to do design-wise to make their products appealing to the new generation. This has to be it. The first time I visited Bamford website, about a few months ago, I kinda felt that this has to be the future of the watch market and I loved it and spend some time designing a Zenith to my likings just to see how it felt and it was so satisfying that I couldn't believe with this feature available, the majority are still buying the watch the company designed for them, the same old and tried design formula without any unique characteristics because they should appeal to a broader audience, soulless to be exact. Gone are the days that every watch should be black or blue because the majority of the market likes it that way, let's go to the next episode. Great video Andrew, you're the best at what you do. ✌🏼
Agreed. Again!
Interesting theory on where this is going Andrew. The glacial pace of Rolex design evolution left me thinking as a designer I know which of the two brands I would rather be on. The 'custom Rolex' future could be interesting but it would need them to rethink their distribution and probably phase out the independent AD's overtime. You could argue this has already started with number of smaller dealers being deleted.
Your 20 year observation makes sense, especially about Tudor undercutting Omega prices but will eventually move into the 5K USD range. However, what are the total sales numbers of Omega vs Tudor. (Pete McConvill pointed out that Tudor sales is a small fraction of Rolex sales.) Can Tudor make that big of a dent into Omega sales?
As for Black Bay vs Pelagos, the rose on the BB crown tells me that this line is looking at Tudor history, whereas the shield on the Pelagos crown points to the future.
The Pelagos 39 strikes me as a modern take on the 14060 Sub, and to me, a better made one for less than half the price. With its sunburst dial and bezel, I fully expect to see this watch released with colorful dials, maybe a few days before Watches and Wonders 2023, and perhaps with the recently discontinued colors from the Rolex OP line. Watching Pelagos purists flip out over a Tiffany blue Pelagos 39 will be quite entertaining!
Totally agree. I want(ed) a 14060 2-line Sub, but considering they now reach 10k and after wearing my buddies Pelagos 39 a couple of times, I’m inclined to get the P39 instead, because it just seems truer to it’s intended purpose without the Rolex stigma or wanting to ruin a 10k watch.
I still own a few Rolexes and do like them, but many of the new ones are too bulky for my liking and the old ones have become unreasonably expensive, when you consider that I can get the far superior new Sub for the same price as the 14060, even if aesthetically I prefer the latter.
I have the P39 and it is stunning!
Andrew: GREAT VIDEO! I am glad you followed up on this theory, which was a short coda at the end of a WF video. You are exactly right in this analysis. It is really "brand evolution" at its most basic. (a) In a few WF videos, you compare Rolex to Porsche and Levi Strauss. The former has been doing custom orders for years. The latter started doing custom denim back in the 2000's. The idea of customization appeals to many demographics. It's technologically possible now, and the price points are much higher. (b) Anecdotally, my AD spent millions of dollars updating their store to match Rolex's requirements. It's beautiful, but it's basically a museum. They recently had a meeting with Tudor, and were very excited about Tudor's growth plans. They expanded the Tudor displays substantially, and it feels like an indication of where things are going (consistent with your theory). (c) You touched upon Omega briefly, but you should elaborate on them a bit as well. In reference to the NTTD Seamaster (an amazing watch), you suggested that the very substantial price increase was a sign of it competing with the Submariner. Do you think Swatch will push Omega into Rolex territory, and find some other brand to be their Tudor?
Oh Andrew. It’s great that youve set up shop outside the watchfinder umbrella. And what an interesting video! And not just anecdotal but backed up with pretty good evidence. The customisation thing sounds so plausible. Just be careful they’re gonna send assassins round to silence you
This is exactly what I’ve been preaching for over a year now. However unlike me, you broke it down and backed up your speculation with actual examples 👏
Tudor is definitely the new Rolex!
#tudorbros
Best video to date.
I just tried buying a Tudor Pelagos in a AD in Luca Italy. They had one to show me but it was already sold. I did enjoy the food and wine. I never give up on something I want. Thanks Andrew and Tudor, hope to see you both soon.
So used to just seeing hands that it looks like a voiceover. Keep up the good work 👍
Interesting vid. The first thing I thought when I saw the 39 was that it was a deliberate release to fill the submariner gap in the 3k price bracket.
The 2 examples you bring up are valid examples, however I'm not sure they suggest Rolex's plan will work. With the Seiko example, I'm seeing an awful lot of kick-back at the ever increasing prices- sure, Orient and microbrands are probably doing good business as Seiko move out of the "budget" price bracket, but I'm not convinced the market is particularly interested in paying 2k for a seiko thats barely different to a watch that cost half as much 2 years ago and has barely any upgrades to justify it. Simply put, not all brands have the clout and name-value to justify increasing prices to make themselves more "exclusive".
It'll be interesting to see what Tudor do next, if they do continue down the path you're suggesting I think it will be a shame, they'll lose that charm they currently have.
Right on!! I'm late to the party but congratulations on the new channel! Shouldn't it be called, Talking Face? LOL anywhoo, you nailed the analysis. Tudor retail prices are where Rolex's 20 or 30 years ago. As a brand strategy, this makes perfect sense and frees up Rolex for loftier price points.
Superb, I think you’re spot on! Now, here in July, you’re seeing the Pelagos range enlarge again with their carbon watches. Bark and Jack has recently visited the factory and shown the sheer automation of Tudor. Lust is there, too, because I just have to have a Pelagos 39!
Tudor 1926: A dizzying array of case sizes, colors and material combinations. End result? People are unaware of the full scope and feel they have TOO MANY decisions to make. Final vote? Most people don't even know it exists. Customization is a difficult thing in this industry; everyone so opinionated on all the nuances. I don't think it will work as a business model, but we see them trying out this concept on BOTH Tudor and Rolex websites. Makes people feel special, if nothing else.
Gosh, this is the best! You have your own channel!!!
I have known that legendary voice immediately and I have subscribed to the channel instantly.
Great video!
Excellent work, Andrew. Please keep up the great job delivering content!
100% agree with you on this. It's a very smart premiumisation strategy that is clearly working. Do you think we'll see an update to the GMT next year?? I'm banking on it. And if we do, might spoil my plans to break into Rolex and I'll need to expand my Tudor collection instead.
I feel the same way. The past two years has made me far more interested in Tudor’s new watches, than current Rolex models.
imagine if tudor made a Black Bay GMT II
You really are on top of your game Andrew. Great video and analysis. Keep it coming
Thanks very much 😊
Your theory makes perfect sense to me except the Rolex full customization plan. That may be an option, but not necessarily their main business model. That would slow down their production, hence their sales drastically. Excellent analysis! Looking forward to your next!
Your most interesting episode yet. Love the overall perspective. My main question is whether Tudor will up their production numbers so that one can buy one as easily as an Omega?
Amazing business analysis of both brands… I couldn’t agree more 🙌
It’s you ! No way ! I found you… well YT found you and I’m ❤ with that. All the best with this channel!!! ❤❤❤
Hello! And thank you!
Hey I'm discovering for the first time the face behind the watchfinder voice! Great video by the way!
This channel is awesome. Andrew, your videos and presentation is super entertaining and full of knowledge.
Keep up the great work.
You and Jeremy Clarkson rock lol👍🏽
Good one 👍🏼😂 I also told him before that his channel is like the Top Gear of the watch world. Oh man, I really loved Top Gear, it was epic. I even liked his Clarkson's Farm series on Amazon, it's hilarious, he's a genius.
OMG ITS THE WATCHFINDER GUY!!! Took me two seconds to recognise his voice and then I noticed the channel is called “the talking hands” 😂
Your theory and illustration of similar product marketing strategies from Seiko in the watch world and VAG in automotive is very compelling and plausible. Great video! p.s. I love my Pelagos 39
You are a Genius. Thanks, you are revolutionizing the watch UA-cam. You are unmatched here
Thanks!
Wow! I always just thought Rolex was for old men with too much money, now I see the plan and I think you are exactly right!
Great to hear your incredibly studied view of the Rolex master plan Andrew….a joy to behold!
I got to get a hands-on to this watch, it is simply amazing. Coming from a Rolex fan boy and don't like many Tudors.
Love your views and the information and history you provide! I agree with the opinion that Rolex’s main strong point is marketing. An Omega is technically speaking a higher performing brand, a more accurate watch. But since the beginning Rolex have excelled at marketing themselves and staying on top of the mind of the masses. The Tudor watches I personally prefer style wise and certainly price wise. There are very few Rolex options that are my style and of course they are hard to acquire and overpriced (in my opinion).
Thank you for making these vids and sharing your knowledge and the history of these fine mechanical creations in the much less fulfilling digital world.
I've been thinking about this for months. Really after they started to populate the stores with the 'display' models. Then the left hand GMT was an exercise to see if they could do this at scale. It makes total sense. Takes the AD out of the equation. Your watch is in when it is in. Rolex knows exactly how many of each model to produce. They also get to market the 'bespoke' experience like luxury car dealers.
Andrew, your plan for Rolex and Tudor makes sense. I have been advocating for your suggestion at 10:40 for over 2 years on multiple UA-cam channels. I have advocated for customers to place an order with a deposit at their local AD. The order goes to Rolex to order and build the watch. The delivery is to the local AD for final payment and fitting. Flippers are cut out.
The 5 year plan will only work if Rolex and Tudor can meet demand enough to buy a watch for new customers at the AD. Else, like now, I am buying Omega, Grand Seiko and other brands that are both AVAILABLE AND AFFORDABLE.
I hope Rolex can fix its model to meet he demand: especially, for new customers who want just one sports steel model for everyday use.
The scarcity versus availability balance is a real tightrope walk. I wonder if Rolex have skirted a bit too close to edge!
Love this video and speculation. It adds very relevant pieces to the puzzle, at least for me personally, as you explain some of the reasons why i think ive been drawn more towards tudor and away from Rolex leading to me selling my rolex’ and buying my first tudor earlier this year. Havent been able to put this into words, until now. Thanks!
Interesting, I had figured out Tudor's role, but the customization future for Rolex is a surprise! I suspect Tudor will go from strength to strength, but I am not so sure about Rolex. Their big sellers were always the sports models, but people are realising no one buys a Sub to dive anymore so the image will change and other brands do precious models with more class.
The perfect voice for narrating absolutely anything.
Thanks 😊
Excellent analysis and outlook, Andrew! It is a very interesting point that RLX´s business model could evolve in the direction of a highly customizable line up. Latest reports about RLX expanding their production facilities make this all the more plausible.
I'm glad you have started your own channel Andrew. When Watchfinder just had you and your hands, it was brilliant, but they ruined it when they added the other guy and the old silver microphone. I've just subscribed and am looking forward to your next video.👍
The only thing is that Rolex isn't doing this in a vacuum. Omega will be following suit. They'll not sit by for Tudor to become their new competitor, that would lesson the Omega brand. Omega has been inching their prices up by feet these days, just like Rolex. Omega will make sure they end up just below the Rolex price point, wherever they end up. It'll fall to Longines or other Swatch group brands to become the higher priced Tudor competitor.
I've seen this coming for a while, so I've been buying up watches no a bit faster than I'd like. If I don't, soon I won't be able to afford one at all. Buying while I can afford to.
Loved your analysis mate ..
Rolex is not sitting on its high horse with 28% market share. They are watching closely the ones who occupy 2nd and 3rd spots even if there is a fair bit of gap.. it wants Tudor to creep in and take their share ..
Rolex going into that up market price category would then mean Tudor will be what Rolex is today in the future
I think you are right on the money. It makes perfect sense. That is why I'm getting the ines I want NOW. I wear my watches so I will never pay Rolex prices for ANY watch. I liked Tudor back when Rolex was accessible. I have always liked what was NOT COOL .the pelogos 39 will most likely be my last watch of any kind because this is THE watch I have been wanting sense The came back to the US. .
Just stumbled onto your channel. Did not expect the soothing voice hands man is a .... normal person? It's like peering behind the curtain of the Wizard of Oz.
Everything you just said makes perfect sense and now it's hard to even purchase this 39 tutor there's a huge waiting list
well done. such a unique voice. perfectly researched.
Makes complete sense to me. I think even the Rolex waiting list may have been a test by Rolex to see what people are willing to pay. Excellent presentation by the way!
You must be a mind reader too :))
Absolutely agree with everything you said!
Very glad you are out there to open people's eyes and help them understand how manipulative, calculated and clever some brands really are throwing the bate at us.
Finally, the Man behind the voice. Great to see a spin-off!
Happy to put a face in one of the best voices of the UA-cam watch enthusiast universe!
I think your theory breaks down when you look at Tudor brand recognition. Rolex is probably known by 99% of the general public - it's often the only luxury watch brand people know of. But I'd argue Tudor is probably recognized by less 5% of the general public. That alone will make it almost impossible for it to fill the old position that Rolex used to take. Omega is somewhere in between those two - certainly not anywhere near Rolex in terms of recognition, but probably closer to the 30-40% of the public.
The upmarket and fillig the gap-plan I agree with. But I'm more confused with where you get the idea from that they want to sell customized rolexes? Would you elaborate?
Nice to see the numbers growing 👌
I think you are onto the whole customisation scenario before it lands. A very interesting point, and doubtless it will be Rolex leading the way.
Are you the voice over in Watchfinder UA-cam channel? I'm 99% sure! 😄👍
You’re 100% right!
Great insights - think you’ve got it bang on Andrew. Glad I just purchased a Black Bay 58 Bronze!
Well thought out video, refreshing content.
Wow what a great video, your best yet. Agree with everything you’ve said. I really think in 25 years time, Hodinkee talking watches will be full of tudors
I come back to this video often because the idea of Rolex using a customization model is just so cool!! Maybe my dream of an Explorer II in a Yacht Master 37 case can finally come true LOL😂
Thanks for the great video Andrew.
I tried on the Pelagos 39 at a Tudor event last night. It was too small and light for my taste, but good looking. Tudor have being doing some great work recently.
@@MT-kx2uc That’s good to hear. Enjoy your watch!
I was surprised hearing the voice...sounds so familiar from the channel Watchfinder and now I know it's the person himself👍
Fascinating video, this kind of big picture thinking seems remarkably absent from the rest of the watch industry media space. People far too focused on Pelagos vs Pelagos 39 to see the big picture, which is the most interesting thing. The build to order Rolex model seems like a big leap for them, but I think it would be a huge improvement from the current situation. It might actually make their models desirable for someone like me again. More like placing an order for a GT4 than playing mysterious winking games with some sales person. Fascinating to see how this all plays out.
Puts Omega in an interesting position doesn’t it? After the blow dealt to them by Cartier, do they continue to push upmarket after Rolex? Or cover their 6 against the surging Tudor? I think Omega will certainly be helped if Tudor prices continue to creep upwards… but I think Omega need to take some serious broader action and respond to the rapidly shifting trends toward more classically styled and proportioned watches
Omega tactic seems to be to do everything twice and see what happens
Really interesting video Andrew and I agree with this. Very intelligent from Rolex-Tudor.
It will be interesting to see how Omega react. I've also wondered about custom spec watches from major brands. In a world where no two Minis are the same it can't be that difficult to let a buyer order individually spec'd watch there's only so many things that can be done to them. I'd order a matt black dial and bezel Pelegos 39 without the display back today if I could or maybe a black FXD, same goes for the Omega PO39.5.
Tudor’s definitely trialing more of that varied specification stuff and I reckon that’ll bleed into Rolex soon
The hole in your theory is that if Rolex pursues mass customization, they will be killing the thing that drives their value: collectibility. Rolexes cease being collectible if they're all unique. They would be abandoning their tried and true strategy of limited product lines and incremental changes to become essentially Omega on steroids. Instead of thousands of discrete references like Omega, Rolex will have literally millions of permutations to choose from.
Exactly. I agree for the most part except for the customization feature. That would muddy the waters. Leave it to independents or third parties such as Artisans de Geneve.
Plus a logistics nightmare. Easier to pump out standard versions at volume.
Really nice analysis dude!
Andrew described very well the long term policy of the most succesful Swiss watchmaker of the last decade. I wonder only what will be the price increase connected with further customization of Rolex products. I recently had an occasion to see some customized Rolex watches (blackened or skeletonized, in stainless steel or precious metals) by small artisan studios and despite their impressive prices they sell like hot rolls! I wonder also what will be the next move of Swatch group to maintain their status and income in the next decade. This year they met another growing competition from expanding Cartier, which proves that division between so called boutique and mainstream watchmaking is somehow artificial in present times.
Great analysis, love your insights!
I instantly recognized the voice.
Great to put a face and name to the voice.
Great video, really echos my own thoughts on the role & positioning of Tudor. I’m not sure about the Rolex custom aspect: I see them as far too hi-brow about their design & pedigree to allow Jo public to make their own decisions, but we’ll see: Tudor is definitely intended to be the accessible Rolex for the layperson today, and the quality of them far exceeds the rattly stamped shambles of a 1985 sub or GMT clasp or bracelet, even if the market price disagrees :)
100% correct Andrew... Cheers from California
Great video and I absolutely agree with you. Keep up the great work. Greetings from Cappadocia / Türkiye 🇹🇷
I love Turkey, been there few times, lovely down to earth people, beautiful nature, good resorts, great food, good shopping destination. I know you've been dealing with an economic situation since the pandemic started but I hope you people overcome it and go back to good ol'days. ✌🏼
@@Jack.Napier thanks for your kind words, we are trying to deal with it and we hope that everything will be fine 😔
Makes complete sense. I think the car analogy is a good one. Not even regarding car brands buying other brands to lend credibility, but I also see this as model creep. Almost every car company has made their flagship vehicles bigger and better every year, and then they introduce a new model to backfill their previous model that is now bigger and more expensive, to fill the gap where it used to be. E.g. Ford and the F-150, used to be a normal sized truck, then it got so big they had to introduce an updated Ranger. Now that’s so big they had to introduce the Maverick.
I got my mint 1993 Tudor prince oyster date in 2012 because the original owner had worn it once during a cruise and someone said to him that he should have bought a real Rolex... So it was worn about 5 days.
It needed a service because it had gunk in place of lubricants, excluding the service it was practically free since I exchanged it for a pile of antiques I picked up in a house about to be demolished by our company to expand our storage facility...
Nice theory and video, Andrew (couldn't agree more), and nice to finally see what you look like 😃 Keep up the good work 👍
Great video, Andrew, thank you.
Had a 39 in hand the other day but got to buy house siding. Sad time. It’s a beauty imo.
Congratulations on the channel, just subscribed to the channel, hadn’t seen it before. I cant get over the fact the talking hands has an actual face!!
Rolex are making a lot of sensible moves. I've always felt that the reason for the popularity of Rolex is not just in their good looking and well executed pieces with solid movements, but the failure of the rest of the Swiss watch industry to really give customers what they truly desire. I think it'll take another 10 years for the industry to really get their act together in terms of movements beyond ETA that are quality, and designs that are great. The rest of the industry is dominated by designs and/or features where I say, "If they only just did this, or that, I'd buy one" whereas with Rolex they have it all already. I'm talking about quality steel bracelets, often with micro adjustment, and solid in-house movements with decent power reserves, and shorter more-wearable lugs, heights that aren't too chunky and designs that just don't suck.
Good point. Rolex aren’t successful because they’re great, they’re just not as rubbish as everything else 😂
Really looking forward to the Tudor Black Bay Blackedy Black Black PRO…
What a superb analysis. Brilliant.
I think you're onto something here... I haven't been a fan of Rolex purely because I don't baby my watches and I always found them more old school. I have Omegas and was going to go with another omega or an IWC... and then Tudor launched the FXD... then the BB Pro... then the ranger and now the 39... in less than a year I've gone from not being really interested in Tudor to ordering 3 of their watches and almost forgetting about Omega and IWC completely
To connect two of your points: both the testbed theory and the customization idea, Tudor already offer a configurator on their website and I think you might be able to buy online too? But if that feature takes off Rolex may take it on
Good and interesting video…. So pose a question another two years do we possibly see another new lower tier below tudor?
Customisation is an interesting area. Cartier offers this, and they do it very well. It’s the exception and not available to everyone (because they only offer it in precious metal for one thing). It’s also a very lengthy process that requires lots of steps. The end result always needs to stay true to the brand DNA. A lot of people are involved, so to scale this up, one would have to go down the Tiffany route from 2016 (meaning personalisation rather than customisation). You have set variations of parts you can select from, still managed in a way that no result can be off-brand.
None of the above is being done via an online platform, and you do want someone holding your hand unless you are a designer. The in-person aspect also adds to the premium experience.
Great analysis - thank you!
A very interessting theory! Great video.
Haha, seen your face for the first time in ten years today. Pleased to finally meet you, man! 😂😅
The pleasure is all mine!
omg.. I can finally put a face to the disembodied voice of watchfinder videos😃
Or is it all just CGI…?
That's a bold POV but it actually makes sense.
Hodinkee has stated that customization will be the way of the future for watches. I certainly hope so.
very interesting prediction, I hope you're right! Customized Rolex watches would be awesome in a way, like picking dial and bezel colours yourself to make it more unique, I can see the appeal in that.
IMO, I think your observation is spot on.