STILL Airborne! The Shady Deals Keeping Russian Airlines in the Sky
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- Опубліковано 7 вер 2024
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Two and a half years since the West imposed sanctions against Russia for their rapid escalation of its war with Ukraine, Aeroflot and other airlines are still managing to stay airborne. How is this possible?
In today’s video, we’ll uncover what’s going on with the 400 Western aircraft stolen by Russia and the other ways that its aviation industry is working around Western sanctions to access crucial supplies.
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Below you will find the links to videos and sources used in this episode.
SOURCES
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• Where Russia’s war wit...
• How effective are sanc...
• Меры по профилактике к...
• Sanctions will erode R...
• Конкурс «Лучший по про...
• Аэрофлот вводит в эксп...
• Russia bans entry to 5...
• Aviation Leasing compa...
• Money Talks: Prosperin...
• Meet Our People - Mari...
• Russia may refuse to r...
• Техническое обслуживан...
• «Лучший по профессии» ...
• Aeroflot A330 repair i...
• AVIATION MAINTENANCE T...
• Volga-Dnepr - 30th yea...
• Ural Airlines. Професс...
• ANDREA DEL VECCHIO - N...
• Iran Air's First Airbu... v
• Airbus A320neo S7 Airl...
• Kazakhstan plane crash...
• AWESOME! taxi and take...
• В преддверии празднова...
• Russia: Ural Airlines ...
• SaM146 engines in the ...
• Rusia evalúa reinicia...
• New US Sanctions Targe...
#Mentourpilot #pilot #aircraft - Наука та технологія
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Mentour is a Western imperialist dog. Do your airplane videos and stay away from politics or your will stink up your reputation.
Yay for a sponsor that isn't a scam. :)
@@Archangelm127 Lol
An important aspect which should have been added in my opinion is that Russian Aviation changed in another way dramatically since February 2022: There´re few international Destinations in few Countries which still remained on the Flying List of Russian Airlines. And even those Flights are few in comparison with what was usual in 2019 (i.e. before the Pandemia and the War). Most international Air Travel from and to Russia is now performed by Turkish and Arabian Carriers (Turkish Airlines, Pegasus, flydubai, Emirates, Qatar Airways, Air Arabia and so on). Russian Airlines are mostly serving Domestic Routes only today. The same in the Air Cargo Industry: The Volga Dnepr Group, which you mentioned in the Video, was still in 2021 one of the major worldwide Air Cargo Operators with its Subsidiaries Air Bridge Cargo and ATRAN, a real Global Player - I remember very well the number of daily 747-F landing and departing in Frankfurt/ Germany. They even served NATO-Flights until 2018! Nothing from this remained. A few AN-124 (also stolen because Antonov is an Ukrainian Manufacturer) and IL-76, depending on Military Contracts, is everything what remained from this former Global Player.
So the Sanctions are hurting, no doubt. But they will not ground the Russian Airline Industry in a whole. The Iranian Example shows: If you don´t care about Safety Standards and Regulations and Laws and put enough Money into it, there will be always a basic Air Service available - allthough the longer the more not for the common people. But the current Russian - Government - will not care about that.
I personally use brilliant and i can say it's very useful for the knowledge as well as for the brain. very recommended!
If you get 180 lawyers in close proximity, they will reach criticality and a juridical singularity will form, from which no money can escape.
😀 we are doomed!
Great chance to get rid of 180 lawyers
Stop drinking and commenting
You know its getting colder when all the Lawyers start putting their hands in their own pockets.
@@plazma1215
Their out of regular people to rob!
11:42 Fun fact - in 2023 the Republic of Maldives have become the largest microchip exporter to Russia, despite not having any semiconductor industry 😆
They are just a bussiness man... Doing bussiness...
Well, India exports Russian oil.
West buys it
So whats your point?
You laughing at what’s not funny makes you a moron
It's not like Russia isn't #2 in high purity (N11+) silicon producer (#1 China, #3 Brasil) in the world and having their own semi conductor industry for non civilian market; anything up to tech level of 14 nm at least 5 foundries around Moscow, most industrial embedded MCU and SOCs are still at around pattern size of 28 nm and down to 14 nm. One 300 mm wafer, which is one of 1000+ wafer in a 2 m ingot, produces at a 1x1 mm MCU 55k+ dies, at 5x5 mm it's still over 2.4k ...
So sure washing machines and dishwashers ...
@darknase Then why do the missiles that explode in Ukraine always have western chips in them?
typical insurance companies - never pay out if you can go to court and argue it into the infinite future
The liability should lay at the feet of the Nations would put on the sanctions. The biggest blunder in history was to sanction Russia played right into Putin's hands. You people had no idea how much of the west economies were build on cheap Russian energy and the flight of capital out of Russia.
One thing I've came to learn while growing up is that " *business knows no borders* "
Adding Russia as a competitor to the limited supply of black market parts is going to make the other market players deeply unhappy- prices are likely MUCH higher now than they were in say 2019.
Correct, so they will find they will get even less help in the coming Year from Iran etc.
When the prices and volumes reach a high enough level, then it will stop being a shady sideline business, and will just grow into a proper full on business that operates like any other business - just outside of the Western regulatory control.
@@barryscott6222 A "proper full on business" without access to international supply chains or development capital meaning that they will just be producing increasingly expensive but shitty equipment or low-quality knockoffs made with tooling that was fenangled together in some back alley warehouse...
good point
which means more people will do shady stuff to get parts on to that black market, as it has such promising profits. demand and supply. after all a black market still is a market
If the west wanted to prevent the Russian airlines from flying just send them Boeings
When you read what the soviet fly in those times, the boeings are more safe than anything they used to fly
Tu-104 passenger liner which had a hull loss rate of 18%. The Boeing 737 MAX has a hull loss rate of 0.13%, since out of 1,521 built, 2 have crashed.
@@Krysnhaif you mean that constantly(Boeing planes) crashing and losing the wheels is more secure than Russians ones. what is safe then?
@@silvestrenet I dont know, do not misunderstand me, Boeing was ina time, ironicaly under a lawyer, was one of the safest company and quality, was the moto of the company and more, the boing 747 documentary show what boing was, now, if you ask me what is safe, now in 2024 seen the Olympics, putting athlete to swim in crap, mi answer is i dont know, i have seen intel building and launching fail procesosrs and didnt care, i see security companys launching programs that make them even unsafe and making failures, i see doctors allowing to vaccines come out that have mincreaft inocent and even promote them for children so what is safe dont know, maybe nothing
those come with the fake parts from the factory 🤣
One thing they are also doing is that they extended the service intervals. They just use parts much longer than they are supposed to, but most parts have safety margins so they just increase the risk, but because these planes are so safe, they get away with it for now.
When you’re faced with starvation or a shit sandwich… you take what you can get.
@@peterprokop "for now" being the important phrase there.
These things should never have been sanctioned the first place
We should not be playing with safety for political reasons
@@danielch6662they can pull out of Ukraine any day now if the Russians care about safety
Most of parts now come brand new, following official purchase and are equipped when planes land in UAE, China, Turkey, India, Thailand by authorized professionals. What you are telling was the case in 2022. In 2024 all completely sorted out. Since none of these countries are punished for servicing Russian planes, they are super open to provide any kind of service.
>nd in UAE, China, Turkey, India, Thailand by authorized professionals
Authorized by who ? Certainly not Airbus and Boeing, who you know, are the most relevant entities here.
@@Bill31400 Why so naive? A good “compensation” allows companies and people to “close eyes”. Spare parts are ordered as “building stock”. Then re-ordered “because our forklift felt, and previous order was damaged”. No records of repair added to IT systems. And in big companies what is not in SAP means it does not exist. And the total absence of sanctions enforcement reduces risks for these countries to zero.
Some components might now arrive brand new, I mean "Some".. Not most of it. ADIs don't just fall off forklifts. 😂 There's a lot of electronics that simply can't be broken upon fall because some idiot mechanic spilled his coffee, unless intentionally.
A capitalist will sell you the rope to hang him with, is how the saying goes. You think Boeing and Airbus don't know and willing do that? You must be a sheltered child or very naive person. And it's only 40 nations - aka "the collective west" - out of 193 and there of specifically 25 out of 26 nations from the EU that decided to self immolate - I mean right after last time the illegal sanction (no Sanctions outside the UNSCR are legal) were declared (Like petulant children: We will no buy oil) by the G7, Japan turned around and said: We need it we buy it", aside the factor that - how the Indian Oil Minister put it about Indian selling Russian oil: The Europeans do more business in an afternoon than I do in a quarter, just because the ship has a Panama flag does it make it Oil from there (as if they even had oil wells) but since 2022 this changed ... now Panama has oil.
Also these USofA has refineries that dependent on sweet crude from Venezuela, as you might not know "sweet crude" is actually a terminus technicus and means very clean and high quality low sulfur and other impurities. Venezuela ain't selling to these USofA, after at least Coup de etat tries (TEAM AMERICA .. F*ck Yeah!! .. IRL nobody wants them, they are the greatest proprietor of terrorism in the world.) so where do they buy from? ... Right, Russia. Selling their bad shit and fracking LNG that is poisoning the great North American aquifers with their carcinogenic hydrocarbons getting ever gram of NG and oil out while buying russian oil ...
As well as software updates.... so easy - and lucrative.
Was surprised to see an Aeroflot A350-900 at Hanoi airport recently.
Vietnam is in bed with both russia and usa and russia could leverage this relationship for their advantage
@@Lakshay70 yeah God forbid Russia would try to make their aircraft safe for innocent people to fly
@@briancarno8837 that is not happening, believe me.
@@alexander_d1277 - Yes it is, Mr propaganda sponge.
@@alexander_d1277 Imagine sanctioning spares that make it safe for ordinary innocent people to fly. The US/EU have no moral compass
One thing to note is that Russia has more engineers per capita.
Those insurance companies are running out of excuses - with their current service history those planes will never again fly for any western airline.
Indeed, exactly.
Not necessarily. These planes still exist. All they have to do is prove it was maintained according to standards.
@@bigmungus4864but as the video explains, they aren’t being maintained to the correct standards at all.
Fitting a ‘black market’ part, even if it’s at the correct interval would still void parts of the service history etc
@@Skiddinslike I said all they have to do is prove that they are up to standards again. I.E refitting the proper parts and doing a Proper overhaul. Airplanes can be put back into service if the proper procedures are followed. Like I said doing the wrong procedures in past doesn’t write an aircraft.
@@Skiddins So any Boeing maintained plane then? Their servicing parts have been as high as 30% counterfeit . Some of the fuselages haven't even been using "real" titanium.
showing von der Leyen speaking about massive sanctions vs Russia is hyperbole of hypocrisy
What are you expecting from a gynecologist?
She really is a loathsome character. She exudes a combination of entitlement, imperialism arrogance and stupidity.
@@Awaken2067833758She is Dr. med. and is Master of Public Health. She is not the best politictian, but well in the top 20% "quality wise" and had a father was Ernst Albrecht, who was 24 (!) years the well-respected minister president of Niedersachsen. Oh, and "BY THE WAY", she got 7 kids in 12 years. Besides her job! Got it?
I think with the Ural A320 the opposite is true. They wanted to fly it out, till they figured it was worth more in parts (minus the cost of building a temporary runway).
Something unrelated to this video, but tied to the pilot shortage: I've been seeing ads for Republic Airways recently. They're not advertising their routes or fares; they're advertising their pilot vacancies.
Sounds like your algorithm has only recently given you these ads. These pilot vacancy advertisements and email newsletters have been around for almost 2 years now.
No way, you too!
The 1,500 hour rule's chickens are coming to roost.
@@VisibilityFoggy I've flown my kite over 2000 hours! Are you saying I'm not qualified to pilot a 777?
@@user-lv7ph7hs7l Well, if you can get someone to talk you through Autoland lol.
It's like having your Mercury Grand Marquis sedan stolen in Arizona and then going down to Nogales, Mexico and seeing the Nogales Jefe De Policia driving around Nogales in your car.
Kuddos to you! You cover news that no one else does. This is a great story, well researched and presented. Well done! Cheers.
Every one in the comments forgetting that Russia where the original manufacturing point of origin for many western aircraft parts. Boeing just shut down manufacturing line for lack of parts from Russia.
That's what I want to say
I'm amazed at the nonsense in the comments section.
It's funny and sad at the same time.
China can develop its own aviation industry, but not Russia?
😂
I saw a message in Russia that there is certification of aircraft parts made in Russia, which were previously imported. These parts are already being rolled out on special test boards and they said that it will take some more time to complete this process. These parts are made for new Russian aircraft, but some parts are also suitable for Western models. Actually, it is for this reason that the production of Russian aircraft is stalling. It is said that the certification should be completed by the end of 2024.
tiny thing but as a Ukrainian i really appreciate you mentioning that the 2022 invasion was an escalation, not the beginning of the war, love your vids, keep up the good work!
Well yeah, it was an escalation as "Ukraine" was murdering people in Donetsk and Lugansk for 8 years.
@@dimitrioskantakouzinos8590 And they walked away from Minsk Peace accords, not to mention the west overthrew their gov't in 2014.
Peter, don't underestimate Russia's ability to develop and build (apart from the aircraft bodies), all kinds of avionics and computerized systems for their aircraft.
They've have shown in the past to excel in aviation matters, including space exploration craft, so my guess is, given a little time, they will come up
with their own creations *fully* equipped with home made navigation systems.
They have already done this with their military aircraft so, it's not beyond their capabilities.
It's clearly not. The problem is how long. These things take decades to develop and make it safe. And they don't have that time.
@@jgnclvgmng5408
I think you are thinking they will have to start (developing) from step one.. Not the case!
They already have systems in place and the advanced technologies needed for miliary use which can be applied
to civilian aircraft (when modified suitably).
Thanks for the response though.
@@m.9243and when you say "russians" in the past you assume USSR - country with 2x population of modern day Russia: that incuded all former USSR republics which are all separate countries today. Like Ukraine for example
@@Nekudza
The USSR parameter is irrelevant in the technology question.
The core of science and production is now based in the countries of the Russian Federation.
Again, the population figure means nothing in terms of technological advancement.
Look at Sweeden for example. Very little population but quite advanced in technology.
In any case, the future of the Russian aviation success (or not) will tell us how good they are.
PS: Ukraine by the way, was a big pat of USSR's industrial effort.
All they can do is try to keep aircraft in the air for now. When the war is over those Russian aircraft won't have had maintenance and parts from certified businesses, meaning they won't be landing in most airports in the world.
How many shady deals are keeping Boeing in the air??
How safe can be today, in 2024, an old Airbus 340 that was sold in 2016 as scrap, after sitting for over seven years waiting to be scrapped?
Good question
Safer than a new Boeing aircraft at least.
Safer than their helicopters at least
Very! As long as it sits on the tarmac for the rest of time.
We are talking about an airline that would probably still operate the 707 had they not crashed their last one five years ago. So I’d say no less safe than that.
I’m here in Russia, and from the way things are going I don’t think this industry is going to ever face a recession or something serious
How would you know, with all the smoke and mirrors deployed by your dictatorship?
The lessors probably don't want to repossess their "missing" aircraft, even if their insurers somehow managed to make that possible. All maintenance and all parts of unknown provenance would be in question, so the plane owners might be left with assets in hand that aren't airworthy.
All sanctions against Russia. Had minimal effect.
Strong sanctions were never carried out.
Russia carries on as normal.
Military parts and Boeing parts continue to be sold through Hong Kong brokers and agents into Russia.
Sanctions were on a NFG basis.
TY for not using a scam sponsor this week. I love your work and hate having to TD it
Which is the scam sponsor?
@@iamyulianto2 BetYourHealth - they have hurt a LOT of people
@@iamyulianto2 I'm going to guess Better Help?
his contract w bh prolly just expired , he is a pilot not a helth expert so
glad someone said it
Shady replacement parts is on issue, but how do these airlines comply with mandatory service bulletins and Airworthiness Directives? If they don’t respect the Chater 5 limitations on life limited parts like turbine or compressor disks , shafts or drums , that’s opening the door to uncontained failures and catastrophic failures.
It will happen, it’s just a matter of time , like Brook Benton used to sing.
They are not in compliance. Every part connected with them is out of compliance. It’s like the 1950s automobiles that can be spotted in Cuba.
@@norlockv At least those old vehicles will simply stop and not fall to earth as well
Russia cares like Boeing cares...if it falls, meh, whatever....
Black market parts might work better than Boeing
@deltavee2 if you look at the track record of Russian airlines Boeing's reliability is the least of their concerns
May be you'll be surprised, but there are maintenance bases in Russia which can do C- and even D-checks of A320/B737. One of them is S7 Tech in Novosibirsk, and they were a certificated one before the war.
Yet S7 tech just grounded large part of their fleet, including all their A320 NEO, due to inability to maintain them.
They can't do anything without spare parts. Doesn't matter how certified you are, the checks are pointless if you can't replace defective components.
@@stream2watch S7 Airlines grounded part of its NEO fleet. Because they unfortunately bought NEOs with Turbofans. But it wasn't S7 Tech who grounded it. S7 tech is not an airline, it's a maintenance center.
@@arflit Yes, and they are unable to deal with any part of the NEO fleet, and soon everything else.
@@stream2watchsoon they'll fly their own aircrafts and they will scrap all their western fleet. 🤷♂️
I disagree, I don’t think they were stolen, I know you are Swedish, I am Norwegian. The Russian airlines had a leasing contract. We broke it. Strangely the Norwegians still have Airplanes, even if Norway was the first country to bomb Libya. The world is strange..
If the leasing contract is ended, the lease is invalid. If you keep on flying it after that, you are using stolen goods. Easy. "Hurr durr Libya", that was a UN mandate, not even opposed by Russia. Sorry.
What has you nationallity to do whit your argument. Well! Yes! To make it seem that is correct and not propaganda.
@@AnjektusStudio orcs like to pretend that they are elves, so as not to immediately disqualify themselves.
@@AnjektusStudio enlighten yourself on Norwegian/Swedish history, it runs deep.
I guess they will develop their own tech and finish domestic planes that were in development since the market is now guarantied...
Insurance needs major regulation updates. Double payout in court for falsely rejected claims would be a good start.
So premiums will rise in anticipation.
it's standard in tort law that bad-faith claims are punished with 'trebling' or x3 damages but that's in the USA
Pretty much all contracts include a 'force majeure ' clause, which cancels insurance or contract due to for instance the outbreak of a hostilities or war...
True. But lawyers can interpret and re-interpret these clauses in many ways (and they do).
Almost like insurance isn't worth the paper it isn't written on...
@@MentourNowA bit like the US Constitution then? 😉
@@tomriley5790insurance will pay out as long as it’s covered by the policy. War is a nearly universal exclusion on policies and this is directly related to war.
@@MentourNow "Well, if a war were to break out, I could see your point. But to the best of my knowledge, all that has been undertaken is a Special Military Operation..."
I recently saw a video where a UA-camr took a flight on Venezuela's national carrier on an Airbus plane that had started with Virgin Airlines, flown for a time in an Iranian airline, before ending up in Venezuela, where they have regular flights to Tehran and Moscow. I wonder if this might be, or end up being used as, a backdoor import route for older jets and potentially spare parts? Western airlines are being closely monitored, but does this extend to places like Iran and Venezuela?
Putin's buddy in Venezuela might not make it through the week, judging by the protests that are breaking out.
All parts and planes and countries are closely monitored.
The problem is that western companies can only read logs that are typed in and uploaded...
Also, apart from intercepting a plane with fighter jets, or shooting one down (with all the associated outrage and backlash), there's not much that western governments can do to _force_ countries like VEN, RUS, or IRA to play by the rules/give those planes back
i know you’re talking about the noel phillips video i just watched 😂
@@rokiesato Yep. Interesting adventures in a formerly British Airways Venezuelan plane :)
There are still regular flights from Russia to Cuba which would be a good smuggling way point. Most stuff probably just coming through China though
I recently saw an air travel YT video by Noel Philips where he few in, around and out of Venezuela on their government owned Conviasa airlines. Noel noted that his flight from Caracas to Mexico City was on an A340 that was previously owned by Mahan Air (Iran) and originally owned by Virgin Atlantic. It has a tiny number of passengers on it. He also noted Convias, using their small fleet of A340's to serve flights from Caracas to Terahan, Iran, Moscow, Russia and Havana, Cuba. I wonder if Conviasa is surviving on freight of bootleg goods for Venezuela and trans-shipment to Iran, Russia, Cuba and other countries with sanctions and other restrictions from countries like Mexico and others they serve that are not subject to sanctions by the USA. That could include airline maintenance parts.
All state owned companies here run at a loss, they don't care. Its one of the reasons Venezuela is so impoverished and the local currency lost 14 zeroes in a decade. Maybe they smuggle things in them too, it wouldn't be the first time. We hope the current gov falls now that everyone knows they lost the elections yet still claim they won and pretend to imprison anyone who says otherwise...
Necessity is the mother of invention
Scarcity is the mother of invention.
Necessity is the mother of invasion
Dumb war that threw your country in the shitter because of greed and paranoïa is the mother (ruSSia) of failure.
The thing is the MC-21 has been delayed in part due to the need to replace the avionics package. This is why it isn't ready yet. When it is ready, it will be a *big deal* for countries wishing to sanction-proof their aviation industries. The goal now is for commercial service to start next year. Presumably some international certification will start after that.
Your videos are always so informative, and you're a master storyteller! :)
Wow, thank you!
Grand kids will be happy one day....😊
The MC21 is currently going through trials with completely indigenous avionics and engines.
And those trials are going very poorly. Next step will be to try to build everything with indigenous machines. Meanwhile, aviation in the rest of the world is moving on. Once the MC-21 is deemed suitable, it will only be 20 years behind, and they'll be lucky to be able to build 20 a year.
@@stream2watch is it your business to think about what the Russians do?
@@JFJ12 No, it is a hobby. At the end of the day your actions interfere with peace and tranquility in places you have no business in. That is not acceptable.
Oink oink! Would you like an acorn?
@@stream2watch why does anyone have business with Boeing then?
Did US Airlines and companies get everything taken when we invaded Iraq?
А в Афганистан?
А в Сирию?
А в Ливию?
Чтото не видно санкций в отношении США…
I am packing my bags with TCAS systems!
Thank you so much for calm and neutral story telling manner!
Good for Russia. Keeping things running.
I'm from Russia, can say, that personally, I prefer going by train for domestic transportation, and going by Turkish Airlines for international flights, more and more every year, mostly because of the concerns about the aircraft maintenance situation.
Just letting you know from the beginning, I am from the USA. I cannot fault you whatsoever for choosing to fly more known reliable airlines. I am just so “down” at the fact that this has to happen because of ONE human being. This style of getting around things cannot happen for ever, at the end, it will slowly but certainly fail.
I wish you nothing but the best.
I know you cannot comment freely like I can, (which in my mind is absolutely crazy and absurd), so I don’t expect a friendly nor response whatsoever.
All the best!
@@carmelocali5074 thank you so much! I wish everyone in the world nothing but peace. I just don't understand some ways of other countries dealing with Russia, by banning our civilian airlines from maintenance access or from using leased planes. Military planes are still flying. Some major airlines such as Turkish, Qatar, Emirates, they are all still flying inside and outside of Russia without sanctions. So what's the point of all those restrictions, it's just our domestic flights becoming more dangerous, it doesn't help to stop the war or to prevent our rich people from traveling abroad. It's just putting average people's lives in danger, for example when they just want to see their family in another part of the country and they need to go by plane.
I just don't understand, what the whole world expected to happen after that sanctions kicked in. Like "Okay, yesterday the biggest country in the whole world was using planes, and today, when sanctions kicked in, they will just stop using all the planes immediately and will give it back to us". Of course that cannot happen in the modern world, how can you imagine any country, not even the biggest one, without domestic flights. It's just putting others lives in danger unnecessarily without any profit for anyone. Literally other people in the comment section mentioned that it could be dangerous for the whole world of aviation because now shady plane parts from black markets can appear on the clean markets because of the increased value of it circulating.
@@NicePotato
So true!
All the best from Italy, with the hope that this crazy situation will end soon.
@@NicePotato I understand your point of view. As far as the parts circulating, mechanics know if a part came in refurbished or new and from the company or other trusted dealers. The unfortunate thing is that countries like yours or Iran are susceptible to these parts and practices. I believe the whole part of putting restrictions and sanctions are for the aggressive action that one country took towards another sovereign country and this is the result. As for putting innocent lives in danger, the war that this country has started, again by one man, has taken the lives of many innocent people. You know exactly what I mean. If the aviation sector in your country can survive, it will never equal to the human losses to the other country by even a fraction.
I too, wish for peace in our world. But I also know what is right and what is wrong. What side to be on and what side not to be on. If almost the entire world is against a certain country, then it is time to look in the mirror and ask why and look for the facts on what went wrong. My country is NOT innocent whatsoever. We have made plenty of mistakes… but we also don’t want WW3 to erupt and our president has never gone on tv, looked straight at the camera and said to the world “test us and see what happens”.
Take care my friend, and you are a friend. I have no ill feelings towards you at all. Just your top guy that is restricting you. And again, you know whom I mean. ✌🏻
@@NicePotato The wests beef isn't with the people of Russia but your leader. I feel so bad that you guys have to fly around in unsafe airplanes and planes that were meant to be scrapped in 2016.
At least you’re not shilling that awful Better Help company in this video.
Shady like how the US got titanium for the SR71 program.
According to Ben Rich (later head of the Skunk Works, worked on the SR71 engine setup), titanium was ordered from Russia (and maybe other places), paid for, and shipped to dummy addresses. What Lockheed did with it was their business. I believe he said that the Soviet Union's expertise with titanium came from using it to build the hulls of their submarine fleet.
Ben was instrumental in developing stealth technology, which was initially based on the appendix to a paper published in Russian by a Russian aero engineer. About a way to compute radar signatures of various shapes. The Russian military had no interest in it. Ben later met that Russian aero engineer when he emigrated and got an academic position in the US, I think at UCLA. It's a strange world.
@@paulflory3532 Just goes to show that Russian Engineers are no dummies
I think it is likely that most components will have been reverse engineered and will be domestically produced to some extent, and those that cannot will continue to be imported over unofficial channels. They announced that they refocused on import substitution for the Superjet 100 last year, and plan on moving towards production in 2024. Given the typical delay, they might succeed late next year. It's not like they don't have all the components and technologies for aircraft themselves.
My guess is that they will be working on a transition towards domestically produced aircraft for the next decade, while keeping the old jets running as good as possible.
Iranian mechanics working on Russian airliners with black market components does not inspire a great deal of confidence. Last time I flew on Aeroflot was back in the late 70s, think that will be my last (and only) time.
Things have changed and do change more often than we like. I flew with Aeroflot on Soviet planes in the early 80s (I wouldn't really want to repeat that), later, before the war, on the dreaded SSJ100, A320s and B777s and was perfectly happy. But for some particular reason I would not want to get on one right now or in the predictable future.
I think 70's aeroflot is still more scary to me 😂 (tupolevs in general 🥲)
I hear Boing has some extra door bolts laying around if they want them.
I've got an old A320 engine I'm not using in my garden shed. I'm looking to get rid of it, do you think I'll be ok checking it in at Heathrow for a flight to Moscow?
Carry it as hand luggage. cheers! / CS
I work for a parts supply company. I suspect a lot of parts the Russians are using are legitimate and maintained according to usual standards. Most parts supplied to airlines are supplied on an exchange basis. The supplier sends an airworthy part, the maintenance company return the unserviceable part and the supplier arranges the repair of the returned unit. I suspect Russia is returning parts through 3rd parties with fraudulent documentation linking the parts to other airlines/countries.
I've heard of Russian deals purchasing spare aviation and military parts taking place in international waters. No sanctions in any way can cripple such a giant as Russia. Look at Iran, still there, afloat, even making some prosperous deals. Left alone China.
The problem with Russia flying with counterfeit parts is the more the supply chain fills with counterfeit parts the more like that the counterfeit parts will show up in our parts chain
I'm trying to find the name of the little company in the UK that was caught selling parts with fake docs, but my first thought after seeing the report was "follow that trail because it's going to lead right to Russia and Iran. Probably via the UAE."
And Partnair 394 can happen again.
@@mercurybard9794 Dont forget china. They do A LOT of work on these planes, and who knows where country having free access to those parts sends them...
Your own fault should’ve left the civilian airlines out of sanctions. Congratulations u bit yourself again.
@@alexturnbackthearmy1907 Don't remind me. After the airline I work for tried out MROs on 3 different continents, we're back to doing D- and C-checks in mainland China
In the mid naughties, the company I was working for did a contract in Mashhad, Iran (Persia if you ask the locals). US sanctions were a pain in the arse to get around. But we also saw this on our flight in from Dubai. My one and only ride on a 727 (actually 2 as we returned on one also). What a fabulous aircraft. It felt like a sports car compared to some of the vintage 737s I've flown on in the US.
But you could tell it was being kept "airworthy" with all manner of spare parts. The seats in the cabin have about 6 different types of upholstery and, if i recall correctly, when I pulled down the window blind it said Boeing 707 on it.
Those few weeks were a fabulous experience I'll never forget.
Sanctions should never impact peoples safety.
Crazy.. It didn't occur to me the issues with aircraft during the conflicts and sanctions etc. Very interesting!! Thanks!
I am surprised they bother with TCAS.
While I would not be shocked if let that slide for routes between small/medium domestic city pairs, the dozen-ish countries still allowing flights to/from will probably still want that working, and even they probably would still prefer that operating on planes regularly in their most congested airspace.
Would that not be on the MEL? But, whose looking, no surprise or who cares (from their point of view)
@@avflyguy In fact TCAS in most planes are not part of the MEL, even in western countries, but is very rare to fly w/o it, and still not that unsafe
Nothing ever changes. Money ALWAYS overrides principle.
Wait, you actually think that the West's war on Russia is about 'principle'? The principle that the entire world should be subservient to them, perhaps.
Its going to be exactly the same in a year or 10. Nothing is stopping the Russians flying their jets to China or Turkey and performing their D checks... There is also nothing stopping the Chinese ordering extra IRDU's or TCAS systems... then reselling them to the russians. In the end the Russian Government covers the extra expense for the airlines.
The shop that does this work is at risk of getting cut off from its suppliers in the West if it ever gets found. So it's only shady shops that will do it.
@@benoithudson7235 it'a only matter of money, look at the drugs market.
yes, the it the question of for how long commies will have their budgets meet.
@55Vega55 yes. It increases prices drastically. Russia has to pay far more for it.
@@55Vega55 : and it's a matter of volume, look at the drugs market. Witness how few reputable pharmaceutical industries run by going down to the corner to find the dealer who's selling some white powder of uncertain provenance at a high price.
This is an absolutely engrossing episode! Thank you Petter! 👍
To the last question; I’d guess that Comac have their lawyers and laser-printers busy these days…😅
Comac is barely producing anything. It is unable to even make a dent on Airbus and Boeing share. And if they decide to play with sanctions, their planes end up like SSJ and MS-21.
After a year of maintenance with untracked spare parts... Is a plane even flyable in normal markets?
How would anyone audit and check each individual aircraft before allowing it into a given country?
Technically, there is no "normal market" for russian carriers outside of Russia now. There are "countries that we are not flying in" and "countries that want russian tourists and business people"
Normal markets no, but then how "normal " is the Russian market?
There's tons of airlines in Africa that fly with old soviet era airplanes, plus old Fokkers and DC3s. They're fine, until they're not 🙈
Hell, about 5 years ago I still flew in a Antonov AN24
It's "flyable," but not "insurable," and could be precluded by administrative regulations. I guess some countries might allow them in their airspace and airports, but I doubt the FAA or EASA would. Ditto for Japan, Australia, Brazil, and any other country that tends to follow the lead of the big guys. I suppose India is something of a wildcard, but I doubt they want the headache and liability of any of this either.
@@VisibilityFoggy - I thought so. As a matter of fact, then, for the leasing companies these planes are already tantamount to scrap metal, with as much re-sale value, no matter how much the insurance companies will beg to differ.
Sounds like SHAFT is the operative syllable in TurboShaft. 🙂
For over five years I flew for an airline that was shut down twice by the FAA for bogus parts. This was actually a fun place to work, though our duty days were long. But we had one airplane in the fleet that we used to fly CAT II approaches into LAX and that put us almost as low as the light poles in the parking lots around the airport. I remember going below 200 AGL while still not being able to see the runway and literally asking myself "What am I doing....?"
Well, obviously I survived. But here's the kicker folks; The Russians have certainly been playing games with the maintenance logs on these airplanes. And there is no way to certify that these 400 airplanes are safe without taking them completely apart and checking each part on the airplane, which would certainly cost as much as the airplane is worth. This means that any airplane stuck there is effectively totaled, and has no value outside of that 3rd world country. Even if Putin were to fall tomorrow and a completely democratic government were to take over, the airplanes would be unsellable outside Russia. A massive financial loss-
Agreed - so it's therefore a no-brainer that the insurers should settle regardless of outcome. The planes are effectively worthless.
well Putin just got reelected, and the Russians love him, the plan is to use the Western panes just as long as the new-gen Russian planes are produced. they have their own aviation industry ,on the small scale but its still there ,so they will rebuild it .
“country of the 3rd world” - are you talking about Russia?
If there is a Third World country, that's USA. One that is still wearing its leftover Gucci clothes. Oh and GFY with your "democracy".
@@konradkarlovich5801People are just spewing words from the holes in their heads or the holes in their brains, without understanding their meaning, they are just some phrases they have heard. Indictrination at it's finest.
At this point won't there be local manufacturer start-ups too ?
There is also a company in UAE specialized in maintaining and fixing Russian registration aircrafts in UAE and the owner is Russian also and have the sources to get the aircraft parts with GCAA certification and approval, I can’t remember the name but i will find it and type it here
Well there is nothing stopping Russian airlines from getting parts thorough another country that is friendly to them
Yes, total bullshit to claim "there is no legal way" ... as if us/western law would be applicable to the whole world.
@@cecillanter3207 Theres nothing really stopping Boeing and Airbus selling parts directly, labelling the shipments as stem bolts or something other than what they are. And the US government, which is part owned by Boeing, will look the other way.
@@davidwebb4904 would you want the fines and backlash if you get caught?
@@jeremypearson6852 What fines does an Emirati company has to pay for selling parts to Russia? What would be the "backlash" to conducting totally legal business with Russia?
@@jeremypearson6852 Government smuggles weapons to foreign conflicts all the time, off the books. And government have a stock of parts readily available to ship. US entities are supplying both sides of the Ukraine conflict. I could name nanes, but I don't want to Epstein myself.
When I think of the name "Turboshaft" I imagine products housewives would hide in their closets, not aircraft parts
Thanks for letting us know. That was an eye-opener.
Pathetic
That betrays your twisted mind. Turboshafta existed long before those housewife toys.
Kinda like the Adult Swim infomercial for the Salad Mixxxer?
@@jackmcslay 😂😂
Very interesting! One interesting point that is worth researching though is how the same amount of flight hours is achieved. I don't believe EU-Russia fly routes are still as prevalent as before 2022, does that mean Russia now fly domestically and to Russia-friendly countries as much as previously to European and Western-aligned countries? I would suspect that reduced supply by lack of fly routes would be matched by reduced demand for international travel, but this would imply less flight hours would satisfy the market, but maybe there are other factors?
1. Domestic tourism boomed: cities, resorts, beaches are crowded.
2. Flying north-south around Ukraine isn't easy, it's biggest country in Europe after all.
Funny, we were taught in schools in 80s that the Russia is Europe's largest country......@@maximvf
That must be why russia's stronk has been in such a short supply during the recent war of imperial conquest they unleashed. Instead of giving all to the front, the putinists are apparently crowding beaches and doing massive domestic tourism? A leader as dear as the dearest vovochka deserves a better lot of serfs than this! 🤯
I guess that because Russian domestic economy is booming, more people can afford to fly. Russia's economy is growing fast, while in Europe is in a standstill or worse.
@@JFJ12 It's not as rosy as Kremlin's propagandists would have you believe. The helocopter money they're dumping into the economy won't last forever and besides - once the reparations for their evil deeds at Ukies arrive, they'll be deep in the red with their war communism 😎
I think they used the same actress who was holding the hot end of the soldering iron to work on that wheel nut 😂
In Boeing's case aftermarket parts are better than the original 😮😂 wouldn't u agree!?!?
Are we about to see TU-134s, IL-62s, and YAK-40s enter service again? 🤔
No, you will see SJ-100, MC-21, Tu-214, Il-96, Il-114, & TVRS-44 enter service in 2026
@@ibrahimtouman2279 🤣😂🤣😂
@@ibrahimtouman2279, and where is Tu-214? At least one which has been built since 2022?
I think not those types, may be Tu-214 and Il-96, but I'm not sure.
@@Nice_Nick it turned out that around 12% of the Tu-214 consists of foreign components.. right now, the Russian industry is working on complete import-substitution of the Tu-214 aircraft due to western sanctions
The planes aren't stolen. Russia went through great effort to continue paying its bills. If an entity makes an honest effort to pay its bills, but is prevented from doing so through no fault of their own, they aren't responsible. The lessors should be suing the governments responsible. They are highly unlikely to be successful, but those governments are the morally responsible parties.
It seems 180 lawyers are attempting to establish whether what you just said is true. If you know the answer, at least use the spoiler tag on it.
its not “international sanctions”. its western sanctions
Right. But it’s also about Western planes.
International (adjective): between or among nations; involving two or more nations.
What's your criteria for international?? Sanctions have been imposed by multiple countries and international organizations; the sanctions are international.
On other hand, 350 bln USD of Russian reserves were stolen. Enough to cover some leasing issues.
@@JonosBtheMC Completely different definition. Or do you describe Iran and North Korea as the 'international community' like you do the US and its puppets, because it involves two or more nations?
Mr Mentour did as he was told to. Money makes the world go around!
Such a pity that polics plays a part in this scenario. All the Russian airlines want to do is to fly safely.
So Mentour, the butthurt is real eh?
Try some Preparation H, works everytime! 😂😂😂
This can not be emphasised enough. This is not sustainable in the long term. Sanctions are not designed to completely prevent but to delay, degrade, and cause massive expense.
That Russian sanction superfund they built before the war is rapidly depleting and not limitless.
And half the funds are frozen
ANY MOMENT NOW.
Of course, you could also look at what Western leaders were screaming about when they imposed those sanctions.
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire described the sanctions packages as proving "extremely effective".
"We're waging an all-out economic and financial war on Russia," Le Maire told France Info radio. "We will cause the collapse of the Russian economy."
Now, after 2.5 years of Russia doing way better than EUrope and the US, you're backtracking and saying the exact opposite.
Many of the “stolen” aircraft have since been paid for, buying out the leases.
Source? Because I haven't seen any notes about market-value buying of the aircraft. There were some very minor token fees, but those were at best insult to injury.
Yeah Peter mebtioned that in the video
@@MBSteinNL It was months ago, Aeroflot and S7 both reached a deal with the lessors to buy out the leased aircraft. I am sure you can find such references if you bother to look.
@@davidwebb4904Yes, it's true.
If I take your $10 toothbrush, wipe it in dog shit, then offer to buy it from you for $0.25, I guess I "paid for it" and you'd probably think $0.25 is better than nothing or a toothbrush covered in dog shit, but I don't think that technicality would make anyone feel better about it.
Enjoyed the coverage of new AAA--"Almost Airworthy Airlines" Our company had a restricted area, lock door etc, lots of signs too. It was full of "red tag" parts deemed because parts were " timed out or condemned" The employees nicknamed this area as the "almost airworthy parts room"
Repossesion would not work well since the planes miss a valid maintenance history and aren't airworthy anymore and could only be scrapped for parts.
Recertification would costwise nearly be impossible.
Awesome content, thank you😀👍
I'm glad you enjoyed it!
I wonder what effect the loss of this market was for the manufacturers in the west.
Very little actually. The russian demand for airliners isn't that huge. That stems from 2 simple facts. The russian population isn't that huge and overall there are only 2 economic centers in Russia, Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Overall, there's need for about 500 airliners in Russia for domestic and international routes. The demand was mostly sated already before the war started and only a few orders weren't fulfilled at that point. So for Airbus and Boeing, it hardly matters.
Short term, it was more of a loss to their supply chain, e.g. titanium, thus raising costs and delivery times, than sales. Long term, potentially quite big, as it has forced Russia and China to accelerate the development of competing aircraft, independent of Western tech that can also be sold to an increasing number of sanctioned countries by the thugs in Washington.
@@shi01 No, mate. I really don't know the effect, but you are totally incorrect about the demographics. How can 130mil country be "isn't that huge"? And Russia has many more big cities besides Moscow and St Petersburg.
@@sholodenko It's the population density and the living standard that is the issue. For a country as vast as Russia, 130mil citizens is very low. Also, in the rural parts of russia, income is generally so low, that they can't afford to fly very often if at all. I mean compare it to China or India, which are smaller by area, but have more than 10 times the population of russia. These are intresting markets, with a lot of potential demand in the future. Russia is not.
Also, yes russia has more sizable cities than Moscow and St. Petersburg. But they are not important economically. Why would people want to fly there? The demand for flights to these cities is very low. Just an example. Yekaterinburg. the fourth biggest city in Russia by population. The local airport has just under 700 departers per week. An now compare this to for instance Zurich airport in Switzerland, a much smaller city by population. Well, Zurich has around 2500 departers per week. Or take Frankfurt in Germany, around 4500 departures per week. Frankfurt themself only has about half the population of Yekaterinburg.
So as you can see, it doesn't matter how large the population is in absolute numbers. People that can't afford to fly or live 800km away from the next mayor airport simply don't matter for an airline.
I worry more about the dollar fading out of its role as reserve currency because of this administration's asinine decision to kick Russia out of the SWIFT system. This brought about massive international distrust in SWIFT and the dollar, and empowered BRICS to make alternative currency arrangements. This will bring huge quantities of dollars back into the U.S., setting up turbo-inflation. Weimar 2.0 coming soon. Just wait.
-- All this to keep afloat a money-laundering state with some biolabs.
-- This administration is trying to destroy the U.S., and it may well succeed.
The only good thing about this for Russia is that their aviation industry is starting to finally doing something related to commercial aviation after all these years 😅 But it will probably take them like half a century
Well ssj100`s are in big production run now, and problems seem to be solved. Much better then decade ago when everything was soviet or western.
@@alexturnbackthearmy1907How many new ssj were delivered to customers in 2022, 2023 and this year? How many of them were equipped with russian made engines?
2 hull losses per 100 produced
@@stream2watch And the 737 family has had 234 hull losses per 11,797 airframes produced. If we divide 11,797 by 234 and the SSJ's 100 by 2, we get approximately the same number. Meaning that the SSJ is mathematically as safe as the 737 family.
@@patschannel9513 Except for the fact that the 737 has been flying since 1968. The SSJ100 since 2011
I had difficulty recognising my old stomping ground at the Royal Courts of Justice in the aerial shot until I realised the east-west axis has been reversed and shows traffic driving on the right.
Long before these recent problems, I did research the fatal accidents occurring to one particular family of Russian aircraft types (rotor). I knew that many of the accidents may have gone unreported yet I counted over 2700 fatalities before losing count. It was a powerful lesson in the Russian tolerance for unnecessary deaths.
Most, if not absolutely all, of these aircraft accidents occurred during Soviet times.
@@bashcony_osu Still happening.
@@jimf671 The 2700 you say you counted, when were they? How many were before 1991?
Even if the war ended tomorrow, and Russia somehow was welcomed back into the world community, it’ll be a cold day in hell before western aviation authorities allow any of these aircraft in their airspace.
Add to that, not a single lessor will touch Russia for a very long time, and Boeing and Airbus have huge lead times for new builds.
Then consider that it’ll take a long time for Russian homegrown jets to get approval outside of Russia and their friends.
I foresee a future where Russian aviation, like everything else, is beholden to the Chinese.
I’ll play my tiny violin for them.
Remember when the US imposed sanctions on China, denying them electronic chips? What did China Do? Immediately opened their own electronic chips factories, so now the US exports of those electronic chips are lost forever. Are the Chinese chips as good as the American ones? Not yet, with the emphasis on the YET! But who cares? I potentially see the same story developing in Russia, regarding Russian versions of Boeing and Airbus parts that will be mass-produced in Russia or any of the other BRICS countries that will seize the opportunity. And if the service intervals for the Russian, Chinese, Iranian or other countries are going to be shorter, it'll probably become offset by the lower purchasing price anyway. Who will lose again? American and European aerospace workers that will lose their jobs, when the volume of parts sold will diminish accordingly. Sanctions don't work!
This is the effect of shipping all of our chip manufacturing to China 15-20 years ago, to appease stockholders. The Apples, Intels and Nvidias of the world seem to have been naive enough to think the Chinese would abide by no copy/no compete clauses forever. Now we are scrambling to open plants here and requiring government subsidies to open and stay running, because Chinees labor IS cheap. Oh Well...
Sanctions against civil aviation are probably the stupidest in the history of sanctions. 45 countries in the world have imposed sanctions on Russia, the other 150 have not. Countries, airlines and manufacturers that have imposed sanctions are financially losing incomparably more compared to Russia.
Sure Ivan
@@markomicovic5308 It is really reassuring that Djibouti is not sanctioning russia
@@pepenp I don't know what problem you have but these are just facts. For every dollar that Russian airlines lose due to sanctions, European airlines and civil aviation-related companies lose at least a hundred. And next to that Djibouti you can put China, India, Brazil and many others, the US is not a planet earth.
Hey at least those A340 are still flying instead of going to the scrapyard 😂😂
180 Lawyers ?!?!?
More than a few people's vision of hell...
You underestimate Chinese, Russian & Brazilian ingenuity.
I'm glad to see you are playing your part on the anti-Russian agenda.
Anti-Russian is as natural as photosynthesis.
A German pilot is not happy Russia is not surrendering. Didn't something like this happened 80 years ago?
He is not German (was born in Sweden). The current war against Russia is directed by those who Germans thought of as a problem
Your point? I didn't hear anything negative spoke about Russia.
What german pilot??
You'd have to be halfway ree taa hded to figure that this is a German.
Russia as the aggressor needs to get out of Ukraine.
Yeah I'm not surprised in the slightest. Just look at the shady arms business that always takes place between countries that simply don't care about any rule. Same here, there's always supply if there's money.
Like the US you mean?
@@Kaipeternicolas No. The US just creates the rules so it can do whatever it wants.
Russia OTOH is literally an organized crime ring pretending to be a country.
@@Kaipeternicolas Sure, any place has these channels.
@@VincentGroenewold good, just checking!
Start correctly and say what caused the attack; don't just put it as Russia's attack without a reason.
OK, Putin's geopolitical delusions.
Another great video about the dark side of comercial aviation , well done keep sharing
I hate to agree with insurance companies, but they certainly have an argument. Those aircraft that they insure or still flying and in existence. it’s like someone trying to obtain life insurance when the insured person is not yet dead.
Nonsense.
If I ensured my car, and you stole it, my car would still technically be driving but I'd nevertheless get the payout needed to get a replacement.
The insurance is so I can keep going to work etc, without having to wait until the police (eventually) track you down.
Why would the same logic not apply to planes?
@@MrNicoJacyou don't know what you're talking about. Bigwaidave is correct.
They're still in existence and potentially returnable. Insurers don't want to get stuck with them later, by subrogation. It's like masters fine art.
@@bfc3057
_I_ don't know what I'm talking about??
Lol.... 😂
Ask yourself this:
If you were booking a plane ticket, would you pick the airline that's using planes that have been returned from Russia, where your airline does not know which parts have been replaced (and you don't know how long the replacements were used beforehand in other planes) and which ones have been left in without their scheduled inspections - or would you pick an airline that _only_ flies jets that never went AWOL and have zero holes in their tech logs?
You don't have to be an airline CEO to know which decisions will devastate the demand for your business.
And imagine what would happen to the insurance if they forced an airline to take back one of those planes, and they ended up crashing....
Total PR disaster
@@MrNicoJac stick to your comics and smiley faces, leave insurance law to people that understand it
@@bfc3057
Did I talk about insurance law in my comment? 👀
I could swear I only talked about market factors like customer demand 🤔😜
Sanctions against civil aviation are probably the stupidest in the history of sanctions. 45 countries in the world have imposed sanctions on Russia, the other 150 have not. Countries, airlines and manufacturers that have imposed sanctions are financially losing incomparably more than Russia.
Every Dollar the Russians have to spend on more expensive black market plans is a Dollar they can't spend on their war effort. Of course western companies and countries lose money as well, but 100% not at the rate as the Russians. Without sanctions, the manufacturer would have sold a part directly to the Russian airline. Now they sell the same part to a cover up company that sells the part to the Russian airline at 500% mark up. The western manufacturer sold the same amount of parts in both scenarios. The Russians however did not do the same.
@@FriedrichHerschel you're mistaken. The sanctions will force them to develop their own domestic sector which they have neglected due to free access to the western market. Now, they can develop their own sectors, create more jobs domestically and export these things to 150 countries that still haven't sanctioned them. Which will reexport them to these sanctioning countries for 2x the price.
Same thing that happened with their oil sanctions. People in the west still buy russian oil from 3rd parties for an inflated price.
What strikes me in this issue is thinking about all of the export training I’ve gone through the last 12 years or so. At least under US export laws, the seller is required to know what the final planned use for the article. Specifically, a seller can be held legally liable if a reseller buys an article and then sells it to an embargoed customer. I’m wondering if these OEMs will face any consequences for all of this smuggling.
Russia has 3 to 4 Aircraft building companies. So eventually Russian planes will replace them all.
They will also buy Chinese planes, and replacement components are already being made.
There are always work arounds