That is used for everything. People called a story about Tom Brady’s (foot)balls “Deflategate” People called the story about the Saints “Bounteygate” People called the other Patriots thing “Spygate” That is just football. People call the video game stuff “Gamergate” Adding “Gate” to the end of something is the NPC default.
I like to imagine the Bungie Devs who made the RNG system back in Forsaken did this on purpose and just never told anyone, so all the new people at Bungie are also finding out about this along with us.
IDK. Since the data is in the API it seems wild to think that not one single employee wouldn't have ever noticed that certain trait combos drop much more than others. Also strange that the traits appear in a given column in different order depending on the weapon, like they're manually arranged per weapon.
Oh im sure just like they didn’t know xp was being throttled back in year one they even said “xp throttling isn’t real yall are just crazy now give us more money” yet upon further investigation we found out that not only was xp being throttled they were actively lying to the community seems kinda familiar to that situation huh of course bungie isn’t gonna come out and say “yes we knew about it” because thatd definitely be the last nail in the coffin for bungie so they play dumb eventually fix it probably won’t compensate the community for all the time we wasted over the years and everyone will eventually move on until they’re caught doing another scummy thing in a few months where the cycle will begin a new
@@Mr_Ruhlthey play the game but they don't grind like us ... I have no issues getting my guns this season ...my only horrible rng was with midnight coupe....and maybe cantata ..everything else I have 😂
To explain the issue in Layman's Terms: It's not that any specific perk is more common than any others in a particular slot. Instead, there seems to be an issue with the RNG where the perk that is selected to go in Column 3 influences which perk gets selected for Column 4.
Yup! Has to do with how Computers simulate randomness. If not properly worked around or fixed it can lead to similar numbers when in succession, random roll 1 perk then the other, and that's why the closeness of a perk matters
@@johnnyhall9154 I can imagine it wouldn't be that hard for this issue to go unnoticed, too. Like, if you're looking at just 3rd column perks, each of the options is showing up an equal amount of time. Same if you're just looking at 4th column perks. You only get this issue if you're looking at which specific combinations of perks are showing up.
There's a reply from Jared Schnelle under the Destiny2Team tweet showing how Bungie might've missed this for so long. Basically, even if the combos were proximity based, the individual perks themselves would show a "normal distribution." So its likely Bungie just never thought to sort their data by perk combos, only individual ones.
That makes a lot of sense. No one would think of putting pairs together. When everyone things RNG, it’s "how often would x show up." Not " how often would x show up when given y."
Yes it's the position of the perks and computer RNG isn't perfect, but it is usually good enough to not have intentional outliers like this. This isn't simply a case of "computers can never be 100% random.
It's always wholesome when the devs and community can come together to figure out the spaghetti code inside of the game. The Destiny community is one of the only communties I know that sifts through as much data as it does when it comes to things like this.
So when this fix is rolled out and those 'silver lining' easier to aquire god rolls also become harder to get.... Man I cant wait for the whinging to start 😂
If I remember correctly, either Bungie themselves or a (former) Bungie employee confirmed at some point that this appears to have been going on for maybe a year minimum, which is just absolutely insane to think about. My memory could be serving me wrong, but I believe that is correct
I'm definintely in both the 'this is accidental' and 'this is pretty recent' camps. For starters, if they wanted to weight things to draw out play time, we'd never benefit (and I can safely say that with Seasonal weapons I have benefited); but also, yeah, someone would have found this sooner if it had been going on a while. The only 'issue' is that crafting might have hidden this; who cares if the god roll is statistically too rare to be truly randon if you can craft it after 5 red borders (and this is not a dig at crafting; I'm hugely pro-that system). SO it could have been in the game for as long as crafting has, but I personally doubt it, because again, we'd probably have seen something in any of the dungeons released in/since WQ that revealed this trend.
As a note for people not that familiar with programming and coding. Coding something to be truly random is actually quite hard, and it tends to fluctuate between some values more frequently than a truly randomizer.
A lifetime ago back in college we had a lab assignment to create a RNG program. I just had it calculate the next digit of PI prof thought it was hilarious, me not so much when he gave me a C...
My dad took a coding class in college where the final project was to make a lottery game and the way it was coded you could do something at a specific time and always win.
Saying "Coding something to be truly random is actually quite hard" might be one of the biggest understatements in computer science. Generally computer generated random number are refereed to as "pseudo random numbers" for good reason.
@@Iosifavichin fact, *using software alone,* it’s actually impossible to code for true randomness. Specific hardware is required to achieve that, and I don’t think game devs are going to be spending money on hardware just to code for true randomness.
So in direct response to "is the pattern seen on older weapons just a product of the weighting being introduced with The Final Shape" you can actually see "popular trait rolls" on lightgg and I looked at the Festival of the Lost grenade launcher Acosmic, which obviously you would only be able to farm once a year, and there is a very similar pattern to what skarrow had shown for the more current weapons
This situation felt apparent since the release of the Brave weapons a few months ago. It was easy to pick-up on drop patterns due to the frequency at which we were getting weapons (~23 per run + the brave tokens at the chest + weapon attunement). Many players who were seriously farming since Onslaught's initial release can confidently say they've received well over a thousand Brave weapon drops by now. Made no sense, RNG or not, to receive multiples of the exact same roll that you had already sharded before even seeing a 2/5 of a weapon with the perks you were chasing. Feels like Weightgate was an, "I F'ing KNEW IT!" -moment for many players.
honestly i could see it being a thing since atleast witchqueen, with crafting being a thing people really started not caring about random rolls and there has been few bis weapons drop that aren't craftable and have a bad layout for people to notice, cold comfort for example had envious assassin right next to BnS and Explosive Light so if it existed back then people wouldn't have as much reason to look into it as it would have helped with the drops there.
A program can't be truly random, there will always be a patten no matter how obscure or well hidden it is. This was most likely an oversite from when they built it not anticipating the amount of new perks they would create later
i think the answer to "was this intentional" is actually rather easy to find out, since we have access to the api & weapon roll order pulls or supposedly pulls from the api, just get a few hundred weapons across the seasons & compare their perks, if the overall perk order doesn't match up, then we have our answer & it would be yes
also to be fair, the former bungie dev chick, didn't know what she was talking about, not only did the community prove that via the rng calculation method bungie uses, that perks could be intentionally weighted but also if she was as invested and knowledgeable about the code of destiny 2 as she claims, than she WOULD have 100% known about the rng calculation issues; so yeah she lied to cover up or she is the most "get through the day" type dev that has ever existed
This might have been going on for a while, but there hasn't really been a reason to check up until now. It was such a specific scenario to turn this up and bungie wouldn't have really cared to look super deep at perk combo drops before
I don't think it was intentional on Bungie's part but, it is important to remember that this probably hasn't been as noticeable for the past few years because of the existence of weapon crafting. There was not as much of a reason to question the rolls we were getting because we could just craft the roll we wanted eventually for most loot in the game. Because of this, it might have been a bug in the game for longer than we think.
I'd bet money this was intentional. You gotta quit giving Bungie the benefit of the doubt. How many shitty things are they gonna have to do before you realize? Lol
@@adb2506 and YOU need to realize not EVERYTHING that happens in destiny is intentional. Unless you actually have proof that it is, you should maybe at least focus on trying not to let bungie live rent free in your head.
Given the automatic weighting pattern, the only way that pattern would give equal and fair distribution to all perk combinations is if they had just 2 perks in each column. Which could be as far back if Forsaken, if not earlier.
Regarding your point about the former Bungie engineer weighing in... they would actually have a HUGE incentive not to "whistleblow" about weighting code. In fact I'm surprised they even felt confident enough to speak up at all (probably fine though as it worked in Bungies's PR favour at the time). Non-disclosure regarding code & tech is worked into many game dev contracts pretty much as standard in order to protect studios. My contract has it, and I work at a much smaller studio of only a few hundred, and one that's independent and not beholden to any corporation like Sony as well mind you.
I think the perk weighting started whenever deepsight was added to the game or when it was adjusted. I definitely think it happened before TFS and after WQ.
All these years of getting bad drops and everyone just chalked it up to bad rng. Now we get this new stasis grenade launcher and everyone goes “waaaaittt a minute 🤨” 😂
I know it was hard af one iron banner at one time I think it was during Witch Queen trying to get the god roll for an SMG with destabilizing rounds and another perk. It took me 2 iron banner rotations and I think about 22 versions of the gun to get the exact combination I was looking for. I don’t know if it was due to weight gating, but I know it took a hella long time.
Yeah my Iron Banner weapon that made me believe in weighted perks was the lethal abundance auto trying to get dynamic sway/tap, took me over 50 engrams
Now that I think about it, this could have been a thing going back to at least Into the Light. I can't think of any other reason why it took me around, at minimum, 60 tries to get the Heal Clip + Incandescent roll for Luna's Howl.
I think this has been going on for a while. It seems like at least GotD had the same issue. I saw someone point out that there are a ton of things that had to come together for this to be as noticeable as it was and lead to the in depth data that got gathered. For starters both crafting and double/triple perk rolls would’ve made this issue either not exist or would have prevented people from noticing. Additionally the way the bug works makes it so that the perks needed to be oriented in the API in such a way that made favorable perk combos less likely to drop.
"Unless there are crazy people with a bunch of rolls for a single gun." That would be easy to check, just go rewatch Datto Vault cleaning, while there weren't a lot of cases of people having backstock on backstock of a single gun, there are some instances where people would have 5-10 minimum of a gun. Not sure if all of those are "dungeon" loot, but the logic should track either way for other content as well.
Like bungie said there are desirable perk combos that are much easier to get. Like the fusion fallout said and also bygones! These 2 god rolls are pretty easy to get so farm them now before they patch the weighting
As someone who's been hunting for a Envious Arsenal/BnS Bitter/Sweet the entire season when I've gotten a few god rolls of the other weapons simply by getting the off-chance rolls of them during the farm and remembering how I farmed for over 3 weeks for certain Recluse rolls with high cal during ITL, this is kind of gratifying that someone actually took the time to run the numbers.
Sure, but the conspiracy theory doesn’t make any sense when you look at what’s actually happening. If it was always the best rolls that were being suppressed then you could make the argument that they’re doing it to increase playtime, but with the pattern of weighting we can see in the data it’s just as likely to over-represent good rolls as it is to suppress them. Hanlon’s razor applies here, I think it’s much more likely to be a stupid error.
It’s absolutely been in the game since beyond light. 100% without a doubt. The numbers are “not as obvious” because all the shit has been deleted and the good roles have been saved. I bet if you went and farmed them in a solo subset it would track 100% the same for any content after beyond light
I actually thought of a way to "solve" the issue. Make the dungeon weapons craftable BUT, to ensure that people are still going to grind a bit and replay the dungeons, make it so you have to complete a bounty or a quest, once (per character) a week and, at the end of the quest, you get a random dungeon's red border weapon. That way, you still gotta playthrough the dungeon multiple times, but you don't have to rely on RNG to get a god roll. Anyway, that's just a silly idea I had.
I like the time line explanation. Well done. How many times have we seen hot fixes for things not dropping, or dropping too much. These things happen. Volume testing as they just had to do for this issue may not always be in scope for what seem like innocuous changes. Hopefully, there is a new test point being developed for this issue to be run on future releases.
Not really a new thing, an observant farmer would have noticed this already. I noticed when farming Mechabre and tracked it when I farmed Matador. Some perks drop together at much higher rates and others much lower. Masterworks seem to be weighted as well.
Like I've reiterated to every other Destiny content creator I follow: it took me 3 whole seasons and over 200 drops to get a Randy's Throwing Knife with Gutshot Straight and Kinetic Tremors. I've kept focusing it every chance I get, as the barrel and mag could be a lot better, but not even a second has dropped.
If you check light ggs tool, you can see faded versions of the pattern in weapons as old as Lightfall, and if you really squint you can almost see it in Beyond Light
D2 was not originally designed for random rolls… this error likely goes back to when it was pasted on during Forsaken.. recent perk pool adjustment likely just brought this very old bug to the surface.
I like how everybody is freaking out about envious arsenal/ bait and switch is so hard to get, when you can just get it on the vanguard GL that came out this season. You do not want envious arsenal/ bait and switch on the chill inhibitor, you want cascade/bait and switch, since it cant be obtained on other guns. Just reset vanguard a few times on a bonus vanguard points week, then you get three perks per column, making getting that roll significantly easier.
This would explain why it took me over 155 copies of Luna's Howl that had heal clip + incandescent. Holy crud. I drove myself insane trying to get that before the drop of final shape.
We have always known that some rolls have been more rare than other and weapons with large perk pools made farming those rolls impractical to impossible. I guess i just assumed that there was roll weighting all along, based on my own experience and the experience of those around me. It was very common to hear people complain about a weapon dropping with a garbage perk regularly. It was a community meme for certain weapons to drop with certain bad perks on a regular basis and to me that screamed "roll weighting". Perk weighting made sense in the idea that some perk combos are better than others so making them rare might be beneficial for the "loot chase". I'm just not shocked or outraged over this, i thought ti was always happening the fact that it was unintentional is just funny to me.
They're gonna say they can't fix it because it would require a complete restructure of the perk pool system and everything. Bottom line its purposefully put into the game to increase the time it takes to get something you want.
The only reason I can think of to not bring up a perk weighting feature would be some kind of NDA, but even if that were the case the devs would more likely keep quiet when stuff came up and if directly asked simply say they cannot comment because of legal stuff or whatever.
Here's my example, crux determination, the ark rocket launcher, in total, I have gotten over fifty of them, and I know this, because i've deleted stacks of 20+ twice now out of my vault at the end of the season. Only one has had reconstruction. Small example, but was a definitive for me
I honestly think that this might’ve been a bug that came from the craftening fix. That seems like a pretty good timeline for the issue and a possible spot that could’ve been related in the code.
An important thing to see here is what the initial response from devs was and what that tells us about why they did not see the problem despite having access to so much more data than the community. They knew they did not put any mechanism in place to specify a weighting for individual perks, based on this they assumed, incorrectly as it has turned out, that there could be no weighting of combinations of perks. If each perk appears with equal frequency, they thought, there can be no weighting. Or perhaps it was even simpler: just "we can't put our fingers on the scales, so everything the community think is happening is just paranoia". Had they broken out the big kid maths, they would have seen that something was definitely rotten in Denmark. When people have become certain of a fact, they can easily discount any evidence that seems to challenge that fact. What happened here is not that the facts Bungie had were wrong, but that they did not fully think the issue through and realise that everything they knew to be true could still be true, and the perk **combinations** still skewed. As for the community, this is a case for Hanlon's Razor people.
Thanks for breaking this down. I follow a number of popular D2 content creators, and I've been holding off listening to their breakdowns to hear yours. I hope you had a great honeymoon! -UrbanRangerOriginal
I might go back to normal onslaught once it's fixed. Tried doing the 10 wave expert and reset with 2 others for about 2 months, and none of us got an edge transit with bait + envious, so we gave up.
I’m sure this has been going on for awhile because I’ve been trying to farm a auto-loading+vorpal storomchassr since duality came out to no avail and eventually settled for a god roll crafted doomed petitioner
I wouldn't be surprised if this has been going on for awhile, since at least Lightfall. But because of how prevalent crafted weapons have been in the meta for years at this point. No one really sat down and looked/noticed, and with their removal people just finally really did on a mass scale. Maybe there has been a a truth to some of the cases in the past where people seemingly just where bitching about their horrible luck with rolls on the non-craftable weapons. But as a whole the community seemed to be fine with getting whatever, since there was always that fallback.
Yeah it took me 3 crucible resets during double loot/XP to get my better devils with reconstruction and hatchling. Over 70 engrams in one season. To get one roll. so many pugilist hatchling rolls. So God damn many. Side note never got my envious bait and switch edge transist.
Well that would explain why last season I got 8 patron of lost causes with triple tap explosive payload as the perks. I mean don’t get me wrong it’s a great role but getting 8 of them was a little overkill hahaha
First computers algorithm can’t be random, unless they add a secondary algorithm with it , and second bungie probably wondering how the hell someone notice this before the game designer did ?
At least since Season 23 when focusing engrams with Banshee-44 started? Looking at the weapons I focused and the placement of their perks it would explain the rolls I received.
I don't think this is recent. I've noticed many times in the past (going back many seasons ago), whenever I'm farming a weapon, I get very similar rolls all time, or even the exact same one several times in a row. I always thought I was stuck in a bad non-random RNG loop.
People complaining about gun rolls whole I'm here with like 30 pairs of boots, gloves and chest pieces. I've never seen a single gun from this dungeon.
This is why they need to find a balance better crafting and grinding. By the end everything should be craftable or modifiable - RNG being the only way to get these rolls is downright arcanic.
Isn't perk weighting a system they added with the same update as vesper's host? You can now add weight to the likelihood of exotic class item perks, yeah? So a system of that nature does exist in the game. But of course a former dev might not be aware of its presence. But I really don't know much about anything.
Ez fix. Being back crafting. I have no drive to grind anymore. The checklist of making every gun craftable was like my whole reason to grind. Im nit gonna grind my ass off just for a miniscule chance at god rolls. Ill go back to like i played pre-crafting. Just looking for "enh good enough" rolls
This also seems to be effecting the seasonal heavy grenade launcher as well I don't know if it's just envious arsenal and bait and switch roll that seems to be bugged together but I swear I have gotten 100s off those grenade launchers and not gotten a single one
But you also have to remember Bungie said Xur is random but then announced they were adding specific weapons to Xur’s pool🤔. The ex-employee probably didn’t know it was possible
Had the same issue farming Matador 64 on Ogre encounter. Ungodly number of runs trying to get the PvP god roll, yet all I could get were duplicates of the shit rolls.
Fallout coming back to destiny drama like he's Donald Glover holding pizza in community
best reference ever
🎶 Troy and Abed in the moooorning 🎶
The fact we’ve dubbed it “Weightgate” is pretty hilarious. Nixon truly did have the legacy he wanted
Honestly the CIA is great at coming up with names for their operations.
Honestly it should be "Perkgate" because Weightgate sounds like some people are discriminating people's Weight, either skinny or fat.
@@stevem.9340 that also sounds hilarious
I mean, it’s kind of funny. It’s not “beyond hilarious” though. It just makes sense.
That is used for everything. People called a story about Tom Brady’s (foot)balls “Deflategate”
People called the story about the Saints “Bounteygate”
People called the other Patriots thing “Spygate”
That is just football.
People call the video game stuff “Gamergate”
Adding “Gate” to the end of something is the NPC default.
If only Datto didn't make Pure toss almost all of his Y2 Mindbender's. That would be such a source to start the odds off with.
I like to imagine the Bungie Devs who made the RNG system back in Forsaken did this on purpose and just never told anyone, so all the new people at Bungie are also finding out about this along with us.
that would have been the ULTIMATE prank to play on literal millions of people...
That's kinda what happened to ikelos SMG a while ago wasn't it. It specifically had dsr like recoil patterning built in
IDK. Since the data is in the API it seems wild to think that not one single employee wouldn't have ever noticed that certain trait combos drop much more than others. Also strange that the traits appear in a given column in different order depending on the weapon, like they're manually arranged per weapon.
Oh im sure just like they didn’t know xp was being throttled back in year one they even said “xp throttling isn’t real yall are just crazy now give us more money” yet upon further investigation we found out that not only was xp being throttled they were actively lying to the community seems kinda familiar to that situation huh of course bungie isn’t gonna come out and say “yes we knew about it” because thatd definitely be the last nail in the coffin for bungie so they play dumb eventually fix it probably won’t compensate the community for all the time we wasted over the years and everyone will eventually move on until they’re caught doing another scummy thing in a few months where the cycle will begin a new
@@Mr_Ruhlthey play the game but they don't grind like us ... I have no issues getting my guns this season ...my only horrible rng was with midnight coupe....and maybe cantata ..everything else I have 😂
To explain the issue in Layman's Terms: It's not that any specific perk is more common than any others in a particular slot. Instead, there seems to be an issue with the RNG where the perk that is selected to go in Column 3 influences which perk gets selected for Column 4.
Yup! Has to do with how Computers simulate randomness. If not properly worked around or fixed it can lead to similar numbers when in succession, random roll 1 perk then the other, and that's why the closeness of a perk matters
This is honestly really interesting! Computer logic is pretty remarkable sometimes.
@@johnnyhall9154 I can imagine it wouldn't be that hard for this issue to go unnoticed, too. Like, if you're looking at just 3rd column perks, each of the options is showing up an equal amount of time. Same if you're just looking at 4th column perks. You only get this issue if you're looking at which specific combinations of perks are showing up.
@@lightningstrike9876 Yup, only know about it because I ran into a similar issue when making barcodes at my old job.
To be clear this theory is only based on perk combinations people kept not based on drops overall, and it's not consistent with every weapon.
There's a reply from Jared Schnelle under the Destiny2Team tweet showing how Bungie might've missed this for so long. Basically, even if the combos were proximity based, the individual perks themselves would show a "normal distribution." So its likely Bungie just never thought to sort their data by perk combos, only individual ones.
Minor nitpick, but you mean uniform distribution. A normal distribution would be weighted towards the center.
That makes a lot of sense. No one would think of putting pairs together. When everyone things RNG, it’s "how often would x show up." Not " how often would x show up when given y."
@@Jardynq sorry, was just quoting from the tweet itself.
So probably for years meaning everyone was right when they were feeling getting some of the gods rolls was more difficult than it should of been
How tf can a whole team of professionals miss that? That really brings into question their ability to run a game
PEOPLE READ: Its not about the perks themselves, just their position on the perk lists. Its an algorhythm problem, since computers cannot be random.
Yes it's the position of the perks and computer RNG isn't perfect, but it is usually good enough to not have intentional outliers like this. This isn't simply a case of "computers can never be 100% random.
It's always wholesome when the devs and community can come together to figure out the spaghetti code inside of the game. The Destiny community is one of the only communties I know that sifts through as much data as it does when it comes to things like this.
So when this fix is rolled out and those 'silver lining' easier to aquire god rolls also become harder to get....
Man I cant wait for the whinging to start 😂
If I remember correctly, either Bungie themselves or a (former) Bungie employee confirmed at some point that this appears to have been going on for maybe a year minimum, which is just absolutely insane to think about. My memory could be serving me wrong, but I believe that is correct
As the like, 4th highest completion of forges in destiny, I can 100% confirm I encountered this in black armory.
I'm definintely in both the 'this is accidental' and 'this is pretty recent' camps. For starters, if they wanted to weight things to draw out play time, we'd never benefit (and I can safely say that with Seasonal weapons I have benefited); but also, yeah, someone would have found this sooner if it had been going on a while. The only 'issue' is that crafting might have hidden this; who cares if the god roll is statistically too rare to be truly randon if you can craft it after 5 red borders (and this is not a dig at crafting; I'm hugely pro-that system). SO it could have been in the game for as long as crafting has, but I personally doubt it, because again, we'd probably have seen something in any of the dungeons released in/since WQ that revealed this trend.
As a note for people not that familiar with programming and coding. Coding something to be truly random is actually quite hard, and it tends to fluctuate between some values more frequently than a truly randomizer.
A lifetime ago back in college we had a lab assignment to create a RNG program. I just had it calculate the next digit of PI prof thought it was hilarious, me not so much when he gave me a C...
My dad took a coding class in college where the final project was to make a lottery game and the way it was coded you could do something at a specific time and always win.
Saying "Coding something to be truly random is actually quite hard" might be one of the biggest understatements in computer science. Generally computer generated random number are refereed to as "pseudo random numbers" for good reason.
@@Iosifavichin fact, *using software alone,* it’s actually impossible to code for true randomness. Specific hardware is required to achieve that, and I don’t think game devs are going to be spending money on hardware just to code for true randomness.
So in direct response to "is the pattern seen on older weapons just a product of the weighting being introduced with The Final Shape" you can actually see "popular trait rolls" on lightgg and I looked at the Festival of the Lost grenade launcher Acosmic, which obviously you would only be able to farm once a year, and there is a very similar pattern to what skarrow had shown for the more current weapons
This situation felt apparent since the release of the Brave weapons a few months ago. It was easy to pick-up on drop patterns due to the frequency at which we were getting weapons (~23 per run + the brave tokens at the chest + weapon attunement). Many players who were seriously farming since Onslaught's initial release can confidently say they've received well over a thousand Brave weapon drops by now. Made no sense, RNG or not, to receive multiples of the exact same roll that you had already sharded before even seeing a 2/5 of a weapon with the perks you were chasing. Feels like Weightgate was an, "I F'ing KNEW IT!" -moment for many players.
honestly i could see it being a thing since atleast witchqueen, with crafting being a thing people really started not caring about random rolls and there has been few bis weapons drop that aren't craftable and have a bad layout for people to notice, cold comfort for example had envious assassin right next to BnS and Explosive Light so if it existed back then people wouldn't have as much reason to look into it as it would have helped with the drops there.
A program can't be truly random, there will always be a patten no matter how obscure or well hidden it is. This was most likely an oversite from when they built it not anticipating the amount of new perks they would create later
Or to program to roll the dice two times like in DnD games a.e Nevewinter Nights where each time system rolling dice.
“Held together by duct tape and dreams” lmaooo
i think the answer to "was this intentional" is actually rather easy to find out, since we have access to the api & weapon roll order pulls or supposedly pulls from the api, just get a few hundred weapons across the seasons & compare their perks, if the overall perk order doesn't match up, then we have our answer & it would be yes
also to be fair, the former bungie dev chick, didn't know what she was talking about, not only did the community prove that via the rng calculation method bungie uses, that perks could be intentionally weighted but also if she was as invested and knowledgeable about the code of destiny 2 as she claims, than she WOULD have 100% known about the rng calculation issues; so yeah she lied to cover up or she is the most "get through the day" type dev that has ever existed
What makes sense to me is that with how the weapons were before with static rolls it makes sense the random roll would pull the closest two perks.
Im betting its been an issue forever but we'll never know from older content cause of the sheer number of roles since then
This might have been going on for a while, but there hasn't really been a reason to check up until now. It was such a specific scenario to turn this up and bungie wouldn't have really cared to look super deep at perk combo drops before
Fallout out there having an amazing time and no drama and meanwhile D2 community is literally on fire again.
I don't think it was intentional on Bungie's part but, it is important to remember that this probably hasn't been as noticeable for the past few years because of the existence of weapon crafting. There was not as much of a reason to question the rolls we were getting because we could just craft the roll we wanted eventually for most loot in the game. Because of this, it might have been a bug in the game for longer than we think.
I'd bet money this was intentional. You gotta quit giving Bungie the benefit of the doubt. How many shitty things are they gonna have to do before you realize? Lol
@@adb2506 and YOU need to realize not EVERYTHING that happens in destiny is intentional. Unless you actually have proof that it is, you should maybe at least focus on trying not to let bungie live rent free in your head.
@@adb2506 the destiny community and technological illiteracy, name a more iconic duo
If this was recent, it probably undiscovered because Bungie guttet their quality control team.
Given the automatic weighting pattern, the only way that pattern would give equal and fair distribution to all perk combinations is if they had just 2 perks in each column. Which could be as far back if Forsaken, if not earlier.
Regarding your point about the former Bungie engineer weighing in... they would actually have a HUGE incentive not to "whistleblow" about weighting code. In fact I'm surprised they even felt confident enough to speak up at all (probably fine though as it worked in Bungies's PR favour at the time). Non-disclosure regarding code & tech is worked into many game dev contracts pretty much as standard in order to protect studios. My contract has it, and I work at a much smaller studio of only a few hundred, and one that's independent and not beholden to any corporation like Sony as well mind you.
Lol the Mute City theme from F-Zero X is a banger, and fits well there.
I think the perk weighting started whenever deepsight was added to the game or when it was adjusted. I definitely think it happened before TFS and after WQ.
All these years of getting bad drops and everyone just chalked it up to bad rng. Now we get this new stasis grenade launcher and everyone goes “waaaaittt a minute 🤨” 😂
I need to farm for that demo/attrition orbs baton. Only one perk away
lol I gave up on that and just took the first attrition orbs one I could get 😅
Random Number Generators aren't literally random.
I know it was hard af one iron banner at one time I think it was during Witch Queen trying to get the god roll for an SMG with destabilizing rounds and another perk. It took me 2 iron banner rotations and I think about 22 versions of the gun to get the exact combination I was looking for. I don’t know if it was due to weight gating, but I know it took a hella long time.
PTSD Tusk of the Boar grind thanks for the reminder lol. Think it took me 3 resets and 80+ engrams.
Yeah my Iron Banner weapon that made me believe in weighted perks was the lethal abundance auto trying to get dynamic sway/tap, took me over 50 engrams
Now that I think about it, this could have been a thing going back to at least Into the Light. I can't think of any other reason why it took me around, at minimum, 60 tries to get the Heal Clip + Incandescent roll for Luna's Howl.
I think this has been going on for a while. It seems like at least GotD had the same issue. I saw someone point out that there are a ton of things that had to come together for this to be as noticeable as it was and lead to the in depth data that got gathered.
For starters both crafting and double/triple perk rolls would’ve made this issue either not exist or would have prevented people from noticing. Additionally the way the bug works makes it so that the perks needed to be oriented in the API in such a way that made favorable perk combos less likely to drop.
"Unless there are crazy people with a bunch of rolls for a single gun."
That would be easy to check, just go rewatch Datto Vault cleaning, while there weren't a lot of cases of people having backstock on backstock of a single gun, there are some instances where people would have 5-10 minimum of a gun.
Not sure if all of those are "dungeon" loot, but the logic should track either way for other content as well.
Like bungie said there are desirable perk combos that are much easier to get. Like the fusion fallout said and also bygones! These 2 god rolls are pretty easy to get so farm them now before they patch the weighting
Donald glover walking into a room ablaze with pizza in his hand meme. Hope it was a cool honeymoon fallout! Welcome back bro
As someone who's been hunting for a Envious Arsenal/BnS Bitter/Sweet the entire season when I've gotten a few god rolls of the other weapons simply by getting the off-chance rolls of them during the farm and remembering how I farmed for over 3 weeks for certain Recluse rolls with high cal during ITL, this is kind of gratifying that someone actually took the time to run the numbers.
checked a few non-reissued forsaken-era guns up until shadowkeep and there's potential for a pattern
definitely explains how I get drops of time and again with the same poor perks combos I don't like and different barrel.
Coming from the company that throttled xp a few years ago. Big Sketch.
I forgot about that 😂
Sure, but the conspiracy theory doesn’t make any sense when you look at what’s actually happening. If it was always the best rolls that were being suppressed then you could make the argument that they’re doing it to increase playtime, but with the pattern of weighting we can see in the data it’s just as likely to over-represent good rolls as it is to suppress them.
Hanlon’s razor applies here, I think it’s much more likely to be a stupid error.
It’s absolutely been in the game since beyond light. 100% without a doubt. The numbers are “not as obvious” because all the shit has been deleted and the good roles have been saved. I bet if you went and farmed them in a solo subset it would track 100% the same for any content after beyond light
I've had Vesper's runs where I've got 5 pieces of fucking armor and zero weapons. Weight gate THAT 😂😂😂😭😭😭🤮🤮🤮
When you are hunting pinnacles though… they are like, how does 12 energy weapons sound?
I actually thought of a way to "solve" the issue. Make the dungeon weapons craftable BUT, to ensure that people are still going to grind a bit and replay the dungeons, make it so you have to complete a bounty or a quest, once (per character) a week and, at the end of the quest, you get a random dungeon's red border weapon.
That way, you still gotta playthrough the dungeon multiple times, but you don't have to rely on RNG to get a god roll.
Anyway, that's just a silly idea I had.
I like the time line explanation. Well done.
How many times have we seen hot fixes for things not dropping, or dropping too much. These things happen. Volume testing as they just had to do for this issue may not always be in scope for what seem like innocuous changes. Hopefully, there is a new test point being developed for this issue to be run on future releases.
Not really a new thing, an observant farmer would have noticed this already. I noticed when farming Mechabre and tracked it when I farmed Matador. Some perks drop together at much higher rates and others much lower. Masterworks seem to be weighted as well.
Like I've reiterated to every other Destiny content creator I follow: it took me 3 whole seasons and over 200 drops to get a Randy's Throwing Knife with Gutshot Straight and Kinetic Tremors. I've kept focusing it every chance I get, as the barrel and mag could be a lot better, but not even a second has dropped.
If you check light ggs tool, you can see faded versions of the pattern in weapons as old as Lightfall, and if you really squint you can almost see it in Beyond Light
How much do you want to bet that the reason all of this one under the radar was because of people in charge of orangey development was laid off?
No i think it's been day dot as that code won't have really changed between patches all that much. We just never noticed and it took bad luck.
D2 was not originally designed for random rolls… this error likely goes back to when it was pasted on during Forsaken.. recent perk pool adjustment likely just brought this very old bug to the surface.
I like how everybody is freaking out about envious arsenal/ bait and switch is so hard to get, when you can just get it on the vanguard GL that came out this season. You do not want envious arsenal/ bait and switch on the chill inhibitor, you want cascade/bait and switch, since it cant be obtained on other guns. Just reset vanguard a few times on a bonus vanguard points week, then you get three perks per column, making getting that roll significantly easier.
This would explain why it took me over 155 copies of Luna's Howl that had heal clip + incandescent. Holy crud. I drove myself insane trying to get that before the drop of final shape.
We have always known that some rolls have been more rare than other and weapons with large perk pools made farming those rolls impractical to impossible. I guess i just assumed that there was roll weighting all along, based on my own experience and the experience of those around me. It was very common to hear people complain about a weapon dropping with a garbage perk regularly. It was a community meme for certain weapons to drop with certain bad perks on a regular basis and to me that screamed "roll weighting". Perk weighting made sense in the idea that some perk combos are better than others so making them rare might be beneficial for the "loot chase". I'm just not shocked or outraged over this, i thought ti was always happening the fact that it was unintentional is just funny to me.
RIP Dikembe Mutombo (guy in thumbnail) Welcome back to the newlyweds
They're gonna say they can't fix it because it would require a complete restructure of the perk pool system and everything. Bottom line its purposefully put into the game to increase the time it takes to get something you want.
The only reason I can think of to not bring up a perk weighting feature would be some kind of NDA, but even if that were the case the devs would more likely keep quiet when stuff came up and if directly asked simply say they cannot comment because of legal stuff or whatever.
R.i.P mutumbo
Big up to the f zero music in the background
I spent 40 tonics farming the pvp god roll for Exuviae and now it explains why it took so long to get it.
And people wonder why we don't want crafting to go away
Here's my example, crux determination, the ark rocket launcher, in total, I have gotten over fifty of them, and I know this, because i've deleted stacks of 20+ twice now out of my vault at the end of the season. Only one has had reconstruction. Small example, but was a definitive for me
Respect for Dikembe Mutombo on the thumbnail, RIP to that legend.
I honestly think that this might’ve been a bug that came from the craftening fix. That seems like a pretty good timeline for the issue and a possible spot that could’ve been related in the code.
An important thing to see here is what the initial response from devs was and what that tells us about why they did not see the problem despite having access to so much more data than the community. They knew they did not put any mechanism in place to specify a weighting for individual perks, based on this they assumed, incorrectly as it has turned out, that there could be no weighting of combinations of perks. If each perk appears with equal frequency, they thought, there can be no weighting. Or perhaps it was even simpler: just "we can't put our fingers on the scales, so everything the community think is happening is just paranoia". Had they broken out the big kid maths, they would have seen that something was definitely rotten in Denmark.
When people have become certain of a fact, they can easily discount any evidence that seems to challenge that fact. What happened here is not that the facts Bungie had were wrong, but that they did not fully think the issue through and realise that everything they knew to be true could still be true, and the perk **combinations** still skewed.
As for the community, this is a case for Hanlon's Razor people.
A hanlon's razor reference in the wild? My lucky day!
Thanks for breaking this down. I follow a number of popular D2 content creators, and I've been holding off listening to their breakdowns to hear yours. I hope you had a great honeymoon! -UrbanRangerOriginal
I'm not confident Bungie would be tuned into their game enough to notice this trend before the community
Danger Zone/BaitNswitch is the only Baitnswitch roll i have (the most popular combo) I will say it's nice not blowing yourself up with danger zone
I distinctively remember getting the demo + incan and RF + TL no survivors more frequently than any other roll last year
I might go back to normal onslaught once it's fixed. Tried doing the 10 wave expert and reset with 2 others for about 2 months, and none of us got an edge transit with bait + envious, so we gave up.
I’m sure this has been going on for awhile because I’ve been trying to farm a auto-loading+vorpal storomchassr since duality came out to no avail and eventually settled for a god roll crafted doomed petitioner
This issue isnt just recently. Its a issue for several years already. Why people figuring this out just now is kinda insane.
I wouldn't be surprised if this has been going on for awhile, since at least Lightfall. But because of how prevalent crafted weapons have been in the meta for years at this point. No one really sat down and looked/noticed, and with their removal people just finally really did on a mass scale.
Maybe there has been a a truth to some of the cases in the past where people seemingly just where bitching about their horrible luck with rolls on the non-craftable weapons. But as a whole the community seemed to be fine with getting whatever, since there was always that fallback.
Not a recent thing, Ive easily had over 150+ drops of crux termination and never once got recon+explosive light
Yeah it took me 3 crucible resets during double loot/XP to get my better devils with reconstruction and hatchling. Over 70 engrams in one season. To get one roll. so many pugilist hatchling rolls. So God damn many. Side note never got my envious bait and switch edge transist.
It just feels like The Traveler took a big dump on my heart 😢
I had to reset Zavala 4 times and spin the wheel with over 100 engrams for a wicked sister w/ envious+bait.
Well that would explain why last season I got 8 patron of lost causes with triple tap explosive payload as the perks. I mean don’t get me wrong it’s a great role but getting 8 of them was a little overkill hahaha
First computers algorithm can’t be random, unless they add a secondary algorithm with it , and second bungie probably wondering how the hell someone notice this before the game designer did ?
At least since Season 23 when focusing engrams with Banshee-44 started? Looking at the weapons I focused and the placement of their perks it would explain the rolls I received.
I don't think this is recent. I've noticed many times in the past (going back many seasons ago), whenever I'm farming a weapon, I get very similar rolls all time, or even the exact same one several times in a row. I always thought I was stuck in a bad non-random RNG loop.
This has been going on since at least Prophecy dropped
Glad to have you back Fallout.
I don't think this was intentional because 2 other weapons can get this same exact roll and this glitch doesn't affect all desired rolls.
Someone checked rolls from a gun from forsaken and pattern was there.
People complaining about gun rolls whole I'm here with like 30 pairs of boots, gloves and chest pieces.
I've never seen a single gun from this dungeon.
This is why they need to find a balance better crafting and grinding. By the end everything should be craftable or modifiable - RNG being the only way to get these rolls is downright arcanic.
Destiny: Rising Alpha Test started early
The new trials hand cannon I can not get dragon fly and volt shot. I've got 10 adept this weekend and used 30 engrams to no avail.
How hilarious would it be if their own bugs caused them to create crafting because no one could get the rolls 😂
Mutumbo thumbnail goes hard
Isn't perk weighting a system they added with the same update as vesper's host? You can now add weight to the likelihood of exotic class item perks, yeah? So a system of that nature does exist in the game. But of course a former dev might not be aware of its presence. But I really don't know much about anything.
This been going for at least 5 years bro.
Ez fix. Being back crafting. I have no drive to grind anymore. The checklist of making every gun craftable was like my whole reason to grind. Im nit gonna grind my ass off just for a miniscule chance at god rolls. Ill go back to like i played pre-crafting. Just looking for "enh good enough" rolls
This also seems to be effecting the seasonal heavy grenade launcher as well I don't know if it's just envious arsenal and bait and switch roll that seems to be bugged together but I swear I have gotten 100s off those grenade launchers and not gotten a single one
Have got a single HOIL drop on the hunter class item after 30 of them.
But you also have to remember Bungie said Xur is random but then announced they were adding specific weapons to Xur’s pool🤔. The ex-employee probably didn’t know it was possible
one hell of a welcome back
17 igneous hammer in my vault
Had the same issue farming Matador 64 on Ogre encounter. Ungodly number of runs trying to get the PvP god roll, yet all I could get were duplicates of the shit rolls.
Honestly, people just love to complain. I personally love running this dungeon, so i have no problem running the dungeon over and over to get loot.